Another exhilarating DP World Tour event concluded at the K Club on Sunday with Rory McIlroy proving triumphant in a play-off over Joakim Lagergren, with the ground still trembling from the massive roars following the World No.2’s eagle on the 72nd hole to take the event into extra holes and thwart the 200/1 outsider. Pure theatre.
On to this week we go and to the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth which is one of the highlights of the golfing calendar for me, and our annual return to the famous Surrey parkland course sees a strong field assemble as the DP World Tour heads towards its business end of the season.
With the Ryder Cup just a fortnight away, all but Sepp Straka from Team Europe are in attendance this week, with Luke Donald’s men understandably dominating the betting. Rory McIlroy heads the betting at a best-priced 6/1 from Jon Rahm who’s just a shade longer at 13/2, followed by Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg and Tyrrell Hatton.
✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad
West Course, Wentworth, Surrey, England. Designer: Harry Colt, 1926 with Els re-design 2009/2016; Course Type: Classical; Par: 72; Length: 7,267 yards; Fairways: Bentgrass, Fescue, Poa Annua; Rough: Rye, Fescue; Greens: Creeping Bentgrass.
Course Overview. A week after Chris Wood’s victory here in 2016, Wentworth began its second major transformation under the guidance of Ernie Els. This time, with the help of European Golf Design, the brief was to return the course back closer to the original vision conceived by Harry Colt but with consideration for how golf has developed in modern times. Whereas the changes implemented by Els and his team back in 2009, with a few subsequent revisions, toughened the track up with a series of relatively severe features, these latest changes softened the course to a degree, particularly on and around the greens.
The layout and routing wasn’t altered during the 2016 renovations, however in total 29 bunkers were removed from the track completely and all remaining bunkers were reconstructed and generally softened to make the course more playable. A sub-air system, as per Augusta National, was installed on all 18 greens and the putting surfaces were stripped and re-laid with creeping bentgrass to replace the tired and inconsistent Bent/Poa mix.
The 3rd, 4th, 5th, 12th and 15th greens were rebuilt to a degree whereas the 8th, 11th, 14th and 16th were completely overhauled in a bid to make the surfaces more amenable. The entrances to a number of greens were opened too as part of the changes to encourage more shot-making options and to make them more accessible from the ground, in turn allowing balls to roll onto the greens as per Colt’s original concept here.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2024: Billy Horschel, 18/1; 2023: Ryan Fox, 50/1; 2022: Shane Lowry, 18/1; 2021: Billy Horschel, 28/1; 2020: Tyrrell Hatton, 16/1; 2019: Danny Willett, 66/1; 2018: Francesco Molinari, 22/1; 2017: Alex Noren, 20/1; 2016: Chris Wood, 66/1; 2015: Byeong-Hun An, 100/1; 2014: Rory McIlroy, 14/1; 2013: Matteo Manassero, 66/1; 2012: Luke Donald, 8/1; 2011: Luke Donald, 15/2; 2010: Simon Khan, 200/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
A dry summer for southern England finally gave way to some heavy rain last week which will have given the course a welcome dousing. Sunshine and showers is the 4-day summary for tournament play with temperatures reaching around 18 Centrigrade/;64 Fahrenheit in the afternoons. The breeze will be moderate throughout at 10-15mph, with the odd gust in excess of that, which will present a fair challenge around these parts.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 15 winners here since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2024, Billy Horschel (-20). 55.4% fairways (40th), 66.7% greens in regulation (28th), 75% scrambling (10th), 1.48 putts per GIR (1st).
2023, Ryan Fox (-18). 53.6% fairways (55th), 65.3% greens in regulation (38th), 76% scrambling (5th), 1.52 putts per GIR (2nd).
2022, Shane Lowry (-17, 54 holes). 61.9% fairways (29th), 90.7% greens in regulation (1st), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.76 putts per GIR (55th).
2021, Billy Horschel (-19). 64.3% fairways (13th), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 78.6% scrambling (3rd), 1.69 putts per GIR (29th).
2020, Tyrrell Hatton (-19). 71.4% fairways (5th), 66.7% greens in regulation (22nd), 83.3% scrambling (1st), 1.67 putts per GIR (14th).
2019, Danny Willett (-20). 64.3% fairways (16th), 76.4% greens in regulation (2nd), 70.6% scrambling (8th), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
2018, Francesco Molinari (-17). 76.8% fairways (4th), 73.6% greens in regulation (8th), 89.5% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (25th).
2017, Alex Noren (-11). 60.7% fairways (32nd), 62.5% greens in regulation (26th), 70.4% scrambling (4th), 1.64 putts per GIR (9th).
2016, Chris Wood (-9). 69.6% fairways (7th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 52.6% scrambling (18th), 1.70 putts per GIR (13th).
2015, Byeong-Hun An (-21). 62.5% fairways (35th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 81.8% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (11th).
2014, Rory McIlroy (-14). 67.9% fairways (30th), 68.1% greens in regulation (22nd), 60.9% scrambling (21st), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
2013, Matteo Manassero (-10). 60.7% fairways (47th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 63.2% scrambling (14th), 1.75 putts per GIR (35th).
2012, Luke Donald (-15). 58.9% fairways (40th), 70.8% greens in regulation (10th), 66.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (2nd).
2011, Luke Donald (-6). 67.9% fairways (23rd), 70.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 57.1% scrambling (25th), 1.70 putts per GIR (4th).
2010, Simon Khan (-6). 87.5% fairways (1st), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 53.8% scrambling (34th), 1.81 putts per GIR (54th).
Traditionally this has been a strong all-round test and contenders can’t be lacking in any particular area of their game this week if they want to succeed. Last year’s winner Billy Horschel hit fewer greens relative to most on his way to victory, but he did continue the trend we’d seen from the previous few years where scrambling was a critical factor, as the American ranked tenth for getting up and over the 4 days. To build on this point, runners-up Thriston Lawrence and Rory McIlroy ranked 7th and 2nd respectively for scrambling last year too.
Stroke Gained Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, SG Tee to Green has been the most consistent stat overall from the past five years with eventual winners Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel (2021) and Shane Lowry each topping that statistic, and Ryan Fox ranking 9th in 2023. Only Billy Horschel muddies the water from his effort last year:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: The three short-priced winners (McIlroy and Donald twice) entered the event off the back of some strong form and at least 2 consecutive top 10s immediately prior to victory here. Manassero’s form was less obvious with a couple of top 20s in his previous 4 outings, whereas Simon Khan’s win came from completely off the page as a late sponsor’s invitation. 2015 winner Byeong-Hun An arrived with immediate form of 8/15 and had a further two top-10 finishes to his name for the year to date.
2016 winner Chris Wood had finished 54th in Ireland the week before winning here which was his first event for over a month – 8th at the Dubai Desert Classic had been the Bristolian’s best effort of the year to date. 2017 winner Alex Noren had won 4 times the previous season and although he’d not taken any further silverware in 2017 up to the point of his victory here, he had made the quarter-finals of the WGC Match Play before finishing a creditable 10th at TPC Sawgrass in elite company on his last start.
Francesco Molinari’s form for the season to date in 2018 wasn’t anything special, hence the 22/1 price point despite his strong course form. 2 top-20s in his previous 5 starts hinted at some developing form though and the rest is history as he won the Quicken Loans National and then the Open Championship over his next few starts after proving victorious here.
2019 winner Danny Willett frustrated many punters having been a well-backed fancy on his previous start at Crans-sur-Sierre where he missed the cut. Prior to that though, he’d finished 6th at the Open Championship and produced 2 strong rounds in decent company at The Northern Trust in the PGA Tour Playoffs so, Crans aside, the signs were there.
2020 winner Tyrrell Hatton made it a hat-trick of victors here coming off the back of a missed cut, having finished 6 shots adrift of the line at the US Open on his previous start. 5th in terms of 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship prior to that was strong form though in elite PGA Tour company, having already converted State-side earlier in the year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
2021 winner Billy Horschel had won the WGC Match Play earlier that year but his finishes since that point had been fairly average, albeit at PGA Tour level, until finishing 7th in 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship on his previous start.
2022 winner Shane Lowry best results had come earlier in the year, finishing 3rd at both The Masters and the RBC Heritage in successive weeks. 12th at the BMW Championship on his last start meant that the Irishman just missed out on the PGA Tour’s East Lake finale, however he was undoubtedly trending and had openly stated that he was playing some very good golf.
2023 winner Ryan Fox returned after a 6-week break to finish 3rd in Ireland the week before his victory 2 years ago. The Kiwi had spent most of his season on the PGA Tour, however 12th at the Scottish Open suggested a level of comfort this side of the Atlantic which he franked here at the West Course a few weeks later:
Finally, Billy Horschel grabbed his second BMW PGA Championship title last year off the back of a strong PGA Tour campaign which had seen him win the Corales Championship and make it all the way to East Lake in the Playoffs. 2nd at The Open was further evidence of his game being in good shape a few weeks before arriving here in Surrey:
2024, Billy Horschel: 52/8/24/15/41/55/MC/2/7/10/22/23
2023, Ryan Fox: 17/MC/26/WD/23/21/30/43/12/52/MC/3
Course Form: Given his recent form, the 100/1 about Benny An in 2015 was best explained by the fact that it was his Wentworth debut and, at the time, he was still a Tour maiden.
Until then, and including Billy Horschel (twice), Ryan Fox, Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton, Danny Willett, Francesco Molinari and Alex Noren from the past 8 renewals, recent winners here had produced a top-20 or better over the West Course in either its previous or current guise, suggesting that positive experience of this part of Surrey in some shape or form is pretty critical.
Wentworth hadn’t been Rory McIlroy’s favourite stomping ground prior to victory in 2014, however he had nevertheless produced a top-5 on his second attempt in 2009; Matteo Manassero had finished 7th two years prior to victory which followed his 17th place finish on debut; Luke Donald had finished 3rd in 2008 and 2nd in 2010 prior to his back-to-back wins in 2011 and 2012; even ‘surprise’ 2010 winner Simon Khan had previously finished 2nd at Wentworth 4 years previously, so his ability to play the course shouldn’t have been a total shock – which he again proved in 2013 when making the play-off.
Event form prior to winning here since 2010 is as follows:
2018, Francesco Molinari: 30/MC/35/17/50/7/9/7/5/55/2
2017, Alex Noren: MC/6/21/74/MC/21/32/WD/8/43
2016, Chris Wood: 6/MC/49/WD/21/4
2015, Byeong-Hun An: Debut
2014, Rory McIlroy: MC/5/48/24/MC/MC
2013, Matteo Manassero: 17/7/43
2012, Luke Donald: 18/25/7/3/35/2/1
2011, Luke Donald: 18/25/7/3/35/2
2010, Simon Khan: 24/MC/2/24/10/MC
This classical, tree-lined track is at its most challenging when the wind blows – even a 10-15 mph breeze can play havoc with club selection as it whistles around the treetops, and that’s exactly what the players are likely to get this week.
For me this is a combination of solid all-round play, bogey avoidance and some positive course experience where the eventual winner is likely to have an extra touch of class about him.
Ryder Cup fever takes over both sides of the Atlantic this week, with 10 players from Team USA descending on the Procore Championship over in the States and all but Sepp Straka here at Wentworth from Luke Donald’s squad, as players fine-tune their games ahead of the main event in a little over a fortnight’s time.
We had an almost identical scenario here in Surrey two years ago ahead of that year’s Ryder Cup with what has ultimately proven to be an almost identical European cast under the same captain, and Ryan Fox proved to be the party pooper by winning the title with a string of Italy-bound Team Europe players just behind him. Tyrrell Hatton (2nd), Jon Rahm (4th), Viktor Hovland (5th), Tommy Fleetwood (6th), Rory McIlroy (7th), plus Ludvig Aberg and Sepp Straka (both 10th) all fell short of Fox in the end, but crucially I think all of them put a positive effort in to suggest that we shouldn’t just assume that Donald’s boys will coast through this week.
Of course we could get another Fox-style result, but that’s golf – last week’s Irish Open was testament to how fine the lines are between the favourite winning or not – however if there is to be a Team Europe victor then perhaps the player most in need of the result right now and showing some positive signs is Shane Lowry.
The past few weeks have seen Justin Rose win the FedEx St Jude Championship and Tommy Fleetwood the Tour Championship on the PGA Tour, whilst Rory McIlroy produced an incredible moment to eagle the last at the K Club before beating Joakim Lagergren in extra time to win the Irish Open and give yet another huge boost to the European team.
While all of this has been playing out, Lowry has been quietly finding some form after a stretch of results that ultimately saw him need a wildcard pick to ensure his place at Bethpage. 23rd at the BMW Championship, 13th at the Tour Championship and 15th last week in Ireland have all shown promising signs, with Shane himself admitting that his finish at the K Club was about the worst it could have been given how well his long game held up. 5th for SG Off the Tee, 4th for SG Approach and 2nd for SG Tee to Green would have been massively competitive if the putter had been remotely compliant.
Putting form can come and go for the Irishman, and he returns to Wentworth where he not only knows the greens but has an exceptional record. 4th in 2011, 2nd in 2014, plus 6th in both 2015 and 2017, it was no surprise that he eventually won this title in 2022 in a 54-hole affair. He was 19th for SG Putting that week whilst leading the field for SG Tee to Green, and it feels very much like his game’s in the same kind of place right now if just one or two more putts start to drop. 18th when defending and 12th last year, Wentworth sets up beautifully for the 38 year-old who can only have been inspired by his good friend’s win last week in Ireland.
✅ New UK customers: Bet £10 Get £50 in free bets for new customers using code BETFRED50 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Betfred promo code> page
✅ Odds compiler takes a different view of many events meaning value can be found
✅ Flexible each-way terms available with 5, 7, 8 and 10 place options to choose from
Betfred New Customer Offer: New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. #Ad
With Billy Horschel becoming the tenth player to win multiple BMW PGA Championships with his victory last year, backing another player who’s previously triumphed here at Wentworth may not be a bad plan of attack, and in Alex Noren we have a player who has absolutely no Ryder Cup distractions this week.
Having returned to action following his hamstring injury in May, it took until the end of July for the 43 year-old to find his ‘A’ game, finishing 7th at the 3M Open and 3rd at the Wyndham Championship on the PGA Tour before capturing his 11th title at DP World Tour level when the we last visited England at The Belfry last month. A closing round of 67 was enough to secure a 1-shot victory over Nicolai Hojgaard and Kazuma Kobori, although he still had to make a gutsy 6-footer for bogey on the final hole to take the title and that’s got to give him massive confidence as he moves forward.
We were on board when the Swede won here in 2017, firing an incredible final round of 62 and posting a lead that proved unassailable as the weather deteriorated. He’s also finished 8th, 6th and 3rd around these parts over the years and has proven in the past that he can follow up one title with another in quick succession, having won twice in 2 months in 2011 and four times in 5 months in 2016.
A week off in Ireland coupled with an almost inevitable missed cut in the Swiss Alps immediately after his win last month has kept him a little under the radar with the bookies this week, and I’m happy to take the price on offer.
✅ New UK customers: Bet £10 Get £50 in free bets for new customers using code BETFRED50 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Betfred promo code> page
✅ Odds compiler takes a different view of many events meaning value can be found
✅ Flexible each-way terms available with 5, 7, 8 and 10 place options to choose from
Betfred New Customer Offer: New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. #Ad
A little further down the betting board, Tom McKibbin appeals after an up-and-down week at the Irish Open on his return to DP World Tour action having spent the season on the LIV circuit.
20th place overall at the K Club featured a second round 68 and a closing 69, both of which were amongst the better rounds on the day, and having reacclimatised following a strong performance at the LIV Team Championship in Michigan I think he could push on and improve on his 10th place finish here at Wentworth 12 months ago.
The Northern Irishman has had a solid first season on LIV, finishing inside the top 7 on four occasions, and on his only other return to the DP World Tour for a regulation event he finished third at the Singapore Classic back in March.
Reasonably long and straight from off the tee, that combined with a high GIR game when he’s on form works nicely around Wentworth, and it was interesting to see a spark on the greens last week as he ranked 13th for SG Putting in Ireland.
✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad
Daniel Hillier 1pt EW 250/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Finally I’ll take a speculative punt on Daniel Hiller to complete this week’s team as he looks to emulate compatriot Ryan Fox’s effort here from two years ago.
Like Fox who had a single top 20 finish at Wentworth prior to victory, Hillier arrives here with understated course form of WD/18 but a foundation to build from nevertheless. The Withdrawal in 2023 was due to a shoulder issue before the Kiwi arrived here in somewhat better health 12 months ago and impressed with weekend rounds of 67/68 having made the cut on the number, earning himself an entry in my notebook for future visits here to Surrey.
That effort 12 months ago came off the back of a missed cut in Ireland the week before, so a solid 29th place finish last week which saw him sit in 3rd place heading into the weekend and 10th in Sunday has to be taken as a positive I think as he looks to build on last year’s effort.
Hillier’s maiden DP World Tour win came in England just over 2 years ago at The Belfry where he produced a flying finish to secure his to date only title at this level, and he reminded us all again of his talents when leading into Sunday at this year’s Dubai Desert Classic before finishing a shot short of Tyrrell Hatton’s total at Rolex Series level.
10-under for the Par 5s last week was amongst the best performances on the long holes, and bringing that confidence into this week on a course that demands strong numbers on the 4th, 12th, 17th and 18th is no bad thing in my view.
✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad
