Understandably much of this week’s preview is a carbon copy of last week’s so some of the below is simply duplicated, however we do have the benefit of last week’s event stats-wise which I’ve covered a little further into the page.
Course Overview. Designed by José Gancedo and opened in 1998, Costa Adeje Golf is a coastal resort course that boasts superb views over the Atlantic Ocean and the island’s volcano, Mount Teide. As well as last week’s event, the course also hosted the 2003 Canarias Open de Espana – you can find the final leaderboard here.
Just 3 miles from the popular tourist resort of Playa de las Americas, the course was built on the site of a former banana plantation and it overlooks the sea and the island of Gomera as it meanders along the coastline.
As per the test in Gran Canaria a fortnight ago, this is another short track, currently listed as 6,816 yards for its par of 72 with the 8th hole quoted back to its original par-5 status for this week, however regardless of whether we call it a long par 4 or a par 5, the course is essentially the same as last week.
Back in 2003, the course was set up in one of the more unusual ways with the 18 holes comprising of 6 par-3s, 6 par-4s and 6 par-5s and although there’s scope to reduce some of the par 5s to long par-4s, that’s once again how the layout is described on the European Tour’s website.
Understandably such a setup puts a massive focus on how a player fares on the longer holes with Paul McGinley 21-under on the par-5s over the course of the 4 rounds one eye-catching stat. With the 8th hole playing as a tough par 4 last week, Garrick Higgo’s 18-under for the 5 remaining par-5s led the stat.
Fairways are wide and laid to Paspalum grass; greens have been upgraded from Bentgrass to TifEagle Bermuda since the 2003 event and run quicker than the 8.6 on the stimp that the players faced 18 years ago, as we saw last week.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who may play well this week.
With just 1 event held here 18 years ago aside from last week, the few players who played both events are included on the combined stats: Current Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Course Winners. 2021: Dean Burmester (-25); 2003: Kenneth Ferrie (-22).
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
Almost a carbon-copy of last week once again with mild, sunny conditions expected and the thermometer hitting the low 70s Fahrenheit. The breeze may pick up a little in the afternoons with 10mph likely, although this won’t cause the professionals too much trouble.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors.
There was some very basic data captured from the 2003 event held here at Costa Adeje:
- 1st, Kenneth Ferrie (-22). 291.5 yards (60th). 70.8% fairways (17th), 76.4% greens in regulation (37th), 28 Putts Per Round (8th)
- 2nd, Peter Hedblom (-22). 311.5 yards (21st). 56.3% fairways (51st), 79.2% greens in regulation (23rd), 28.5 Putts Per Round (12th)
- 2nd, Peter Lawrie (-22). 285 yards (71st). 64.6% fairways (35th), 70.8% greens in regulation (67th), 27 Putts Per Round (3rd)
- 4th, Brian Davis (-21). 303.8 yards (40th). 70.8% fairways (17th), 83.3% greens in regulation (6th), 29.5 Putts Per Round (27th)
- 4th, Mads Vibe-Hastrup (-21). 285.8 yards (70th). 47.9% fairways (68th), 69.4% greens in regulation (70th), 26.25 Putts Per Round (1st)
Last week’s event was a little more extensive in terms of data:
- 1st, Dean Burmester (-25). 332 yards (1st). 33.3% fairways (63rd), 66.7% greens in regulation (37th), 79.2% Scrambling (10th), 1.57 Putts Per GIR (6th)
- 2nd, Nicolai Von Dellingshausen (-20). 305 yards (31st). 33.3% fairways (63rd), 62.5% greens in regulation (59th), 81.5% Scrambling (6th), 1.49 Putts Per GIR (1st)
- 3rd, Adrian Meronk (-19). 312 yards (16th). 47.9% fairways (15th), 70.8% greens in regulation (14th), 81.0% Scrambling (8th), 1.62 Putts Per GIR (12th)
- 3rd, Kalle Samooja (-19). 292 yards (59th). 54.2% fairways (5th), 68.1% greens in regulation (21st), 73.9% Scrambling (24th), 1.63 Putts Per GIR (17th)
- 5th, John Catlin (-18). 287 yards (69th). 56.3% fairways (1st), 70.8% greens in regulation (14th), 61.9% Scrambling (55th), 1.60 Putts Per GIR (10th)
Shorter hitters weren’t overly disadvantaged 18 years ago with Peter Lawrie making the play-off despite ranking as one of the shortest players from off the tee on the week. Kalle Samooja and John Catlin averaged towards the lower end of that statistic last week too, however that’s balanced by eventual winner Dean Burmester who led the field for Driving Distance on the week.
Accuracy wasn’t critical either in 2003 or last week, meaning a player’s performance on and around the greens was the most important aspect both times from a traditional stats perspective. Put into context, the top 5 finishers all ranked inside the top-17 for putting average on the week.
From a Strokes Gained perspective, SG Tee-to-Green was the strongest indicator of success last week:
- 1st, Dean Burmester: T: 3rd; A: 10th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 18th; P: 16th
- 2nd, Nicolai Von Dellingshausen: T: 17th; A: 34th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 5th; P: 18th
- 3rd, Adrian Meronk: T: 1st; A: 9th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 51st; P: 43rd
- 3rd, Kalle Samooja: T: 9th; A: 58th; T2G: 17th; ATG: 11th; P: 11th
- 5th, John Catlin: T: 25th; A: 5th; T2G: 5th; ATG: 47th; P: 27th
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
With 6 par-5s in play back in 2003, it’s no surprise that the par 3/4/5 split is fairly extreme compared to regular par 72s:
- 1st, Kenneth Ferrie: Par 3: -1; Par 4: -8; Par 5: -13
- 2nd, Peter Hedblom: Par 3: -3; Par 4: -5; Par 5: -14
- 2nd, Peter Lawrie: Par 3: -1; Par 4: -4; Par 5: -17
- 4th, Brian Davis: Par 3: Ev; Par 4: -1; Par 5: -20
- 4th, Mads Vibe-Hastrup: Par 3: -5; Par 4: -4; Par 5: -12
Last week wasn’t massively different, despite the 8th hole playing as a par-4:
- 1st, Dean Burmester: Par 3: -3; Par 4: -8; Par 5: -14
- 2nd, Nicolai Von Dellingshausen: Par 3: -2; Par 4: -2; Par 5: -16
- 3rd, Adrian Meronk: Par 3: -3; Par 4: -5; Par 5: -11
- 3rd, Kalle Samooja: Par 3: -4; Par 4: -4; Par 5: -14
- 5th, John Catlin: Par 3: +1; Par 4: -6; Par 5: -13
Of course if there are any last-minute tweaks to the setup this week then that will affect this metric, however assuming no changes then holding on over the numerous par-3s and attacking the par-5s would seem to be the recipe for success once again.
Incoming Form: Of the top 5 finishers here back in 2003, Peter Hedblom and Brian Davis both had some tangible recent form and eventual winner Kenneth Ferrie had finished 16th the week before in tough conditions on the Algarve:
- Kenneth Ferrie: MC/48/19/46/MC/MC/30/DQ/16
- Peter Hedblom: MC/MC/MC/MC/5/MC
- Peter Lawrie: 42/MC/MC/MC/MC/20/48/MC/MC
- Brian Davis: 8/MC/14/MC/57/50/11/2/2
- Mads Vibe-Hastrup: 17/19/79/MC/MC/MC/63
Season-long form for last week’s top-5 is as follows:
- 1st, Dean Burmester: MC/35/41/2/WD/8/MC/MC/38
- 2nd, Nicolai Von Dellingshausen: 38/24
- 3rd, Adrian Meronk: MC/47/MC/56/15
- 3rd, Kalle Samooja: MC/4/MC/28/12/MC
- 5th, John Catlin: MC/MC/MC/42/28/MC/1/52
Each of last week’s top-5 finishers had already recorded at least one top-25 finish in 2021 to date and in Burmester, Samooja and Catlin we have either a contending or winning (Catlin) performance in there also.
We should expect birdies once again this week with little in the way of wind to protect this track. 16-under was leading at the halfway point on this course last week and the cut fell at -4.My selections are as follows: