Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's Charles Schwab Challenge Tips 2025

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Congratulations if you were on-board Scottie Scheffler at a best Monday opening price of 5/1 with Betfred. It was the World Number 1’s third Major Championship victory, his 15th PGA Tour victory, and if you include the Olympics and Hero World Challenge from last year then Scheffler has won 10 of his last 26 starts – that’s a 38% success rate starting with the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bonkers!

When Bryson DeChambeau threw away the lead on Saturday with a bogey-double, bogey across 16 and 17, tied in with a -5 finish across the closing 5 holes for Scheffler, the PGA Championship was effectively in the books. I therefore had to make do with an 11/1 full each-way payout on DeChambeau, who for me was Scottie’s only real challenger.

Plenty of the Quail Hollow field have travelled south-west to Fort Worth, Texas for the final leg of the Texas Swing. The Charles Schwab Challenge takes place at the classical Colonial Country Club and is well-respected on the PGA Tour. Defending champion Davis Riley, Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler headline.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Charles Schwab Challenge, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,500 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Course Guide: Colonial CC, or “Hogan’s Alley” as it’s known, sits in the same classical course category as Riviera Country Club, Augusta National and Muirfield Village, although it’s a far tighter affair from tee to green than most. At a freshly extended 7,289 yards, this Bredemus and Maxwell-designed Par 70 is a parkland classic and it was significantly enhanced in 2023 by Gil Hanse inspired restoration, which we saw for the first time last year.

Colonial will be only the third tournament on pure Bentgrass greens of 2025 on the PGA Tour. Naturally now as the PGA Tour moves into summer, Bentgrass-base – often mixed with Poa Annua – putting surfaces will be more regularly seen from week to week.

Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, Texas: Designer: Bredemus/Maxwell 1936 with 2023 Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner renovation; Course Type: Classical, Technical, Medium Length, Texas; Par: 70; Length: 7,289 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 6; Number of Sand Bunkers: 64; Acres of Fairway: 28; Fairways TifTuf 419 Bermudagrass; Rough: TifTuf 419 Bermudagrass 2.5”; Greens: 5,000 sq.ft average featuring 007XL Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 12ft.

Course Scoring Average & PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:

  • 2024: 70.82 (+0.82), Rank 5 of 51 courses
  • 2023: 70.73 (+0.73), Rank 9 of 49 courses
  • 2022: 70.72 (+0.72), Rank 11 of 50 courses
  • 2021: 70.21 (+0.21), Rank 18 of 51 courses
  • 2020: 69.57 (-0.43), Rank 13 of 41 courses

Colonial Country Club Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Colonial and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

  • Colonial: 25-30 yards at 300 yards.
  • Quail Hollow: 28-30 yards at 300 yards.
  • The Dunes Golf and Beach Club: 20 – 25 yards at 300 yards.
  • Philadelphia Cricket Club: 30-32 yards at 300 yards.
  • TPC Craig Ranch: 30 – 40 yards at 300 yards.
  • Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
  • Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
  • Memorial Park: 30 – 40 yards at 300 yards.
  • Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
  • TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
  • Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
  • PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
  • TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
  • Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
  • Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
  • Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
  • Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
  • Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.

Designer Links: For research purposes, other Gil Hanse designs (including re-renovations/restorations) include:

  • Aronimink Golf Club – 2019 BMW Championship
  • Los Angeles Country Club – 2023 U.S. Open
  • Merion – 2013 U.S. Open
  • Oakmont – 2016 U.S. Open
  • Plainfield CC – The Barclays – 2011 & 2015
  • Ridgewood CC – The Barclays / Northern Trust 2010, 2014 & 2018
  • Southern Hills CC – 2022 PGA Championship
  • The Country Club, Brookline – 2022 U.S. Open
  • Trump National Doral – 2014 through 2016 WGC Cadillac Championship
  • TPC Boston – Deutsche Bank / Dell Technologies Championship through 2018 plus 2020 Northern Trust
  • Winged Foot – 2020 U.S. Open

Course Overview: Colonial provides its winners with a plaid jacket that’s extremely similar to those handed to the champions at Harbour Town. The similarities don’t end there as the two courses share traditional values in the modern world of the PGA Tour. 2024 saw a new Colonial Country Club as Gil Hanse has designed and overseen one of his now famous renovations. For reference we have seen Hanse’s work at Southern Hills, Brookline Country Club and Los Angeles Country Club, with these courses hosting the 2022 PGA Championship and the 2022 and 2023 U.S. Opens respectively. PGA Tour pro and Colonial member Ryan Palmer also had input into the course update, which has seen the course go back towards how it was in the 1940s.

In summary, the course was lengthened by 89 yards and will this week play as a 7,289 yard, Par 70. This renovation began in June 2023 and has included all new grass, irrigation, drainage, subterranean cooling and heating systems for the green complexes, as well as Hanse architectural improvements.

Most greens have now been lowered, and some have shifted slightly back or to either side a few yards. Other significant changes are that barrancas have been incorporated throughout the course. The new barrancas are on holes 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 15, 16, 17, and 18 ― making the most of the existing, natural drainage channels on the property. Also many of the greenside bunkers at Colonial have been taken out and replaced with grass bunkers. The makeover has cost around $21 million.

Greens remain as Bentgrass and as we saw 12 months ago were firm and rejected approach shots. Player feedback was positive last year, with many commenting that the biggest changes were to the greens.

In the past, experienced players with a liking for tight, tree-lined layouts have tended to thrive here. We shall see if that is the case ongoing.

charles schwab challenge tips

Charles Schwab Challenge Winners: 2024: Davis Riley (-14); 2023: Emiliano Grillo (-8); 2022: Sam Burns (-9); 2021: Jason Kokrak (-14); 2020: Daniel Berger (-15); 2019: Kevin Na (-13); 2018: Justin Rose (-20); 2017: Kevin Kisner (-10); 2016: Jordan Spieth (-17); 2015: Chris Kirk (-12); 2014: Adam Scott (-9); 2013: Boo Weekley (-14); 2012: Zach Johnson (-12); 2011: David Toms (-13); 2010: Zach Johnson (-21).

  • 2024: Davis Riley 66-64-66-70 -14/266 – AM/PM Wave
  • 2023: Emiliano Grillo 67-65-72-68 -8/272 – PM/AM Wave
  • 2022: Sam Burns 71-68-67-65 -9/271 – AM/PM Wave
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak 65-65-66-70 -14/266 – PM/AM Wave
  • 2020: Daniel Berger 65-67-67-66 -15/265 – AM/PM Wave
  • 2019: Kevin Na 70-62-69-66 -13/267 – PM/AM Wave
  • 2018: Justin Rose 66-64-66-64 -20/260 – PM/AM Wave

OWGR of Charles Schwab Challenge Winners: 2024: Riley 250; 2023: Grillo 80; 2022: Burns 10; 2021: Kokrak 35; 2020: Berger 107; 2019: Na 52; 2018: Rose 5.

Colonial Cut Line: 2024: +2; 2023: +1; 2022: +1; 2021: -2; 2020: -4; 2019: -2; 2018: -2.

Lead Score Progression:

  • 2024: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -14.
  • 2023: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -10; Round 4 -8.
  • 2022: Round 1 -4; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -11; Round 4 -9.
  • 2021: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -14.
  • 2020: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -15.
  • 2019: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -9; Round 4 -13.
  • 2018: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -20.

Path to Victory: Below are end of round positions for Charles Schwab Challenge winners since 2010:

  • 2024 – Davis Riley: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2023 – Emiliano Grillo: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 4th.
  • 2022 – Sam Burns: Round 1: 57th, Round 2: 40th, Round 3: 21st.
  • 2021 – Jason Kokrak: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2020 – Daniel Berger: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2019 – Kevin Na: Round 1: 38th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2018 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 8th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2017 – Kevin Kisner: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 4th.
  • 2016 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2015 – Chris Kirk: Round 1: 26th, Round 2: 15th, Round 3: 4th.
  • 2014 – Adam Scott: Round 1: 64th, Round 2: 36th, Round 3: 11th.
  • 2013 – Boo Weekley: Round 1: 23rd, Round 2: 9th, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2012 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2011 – David Toms: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2010 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 3rd

Shots From the Lead: Below are Charles Schwab Challenge winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

  • 2023 – Davis Riley: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 4 ahead.
  • 2023 – Emiliano Grillo: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 4 back.
  • 2022 – Sam Burns: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 8 back, Round 3: 7 back.
  • 2021 – Jason Kokrak: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2020 – Daniel Berger: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2019 – Kevin Na: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
  • 2018 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 4 ahead.
  • 2017 – Kevin Kisner: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 3 back.
  • 2016 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
  • 2015 – Chris Kirk: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 3 back.
  • 2014 – Adam Scott: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2013 – Boo Weekley: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2012 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2011 – David Toms: Round 1: level, Round 2: 7 ahead, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2010 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 1 back.

Incoming Form of Charles Schwab Challenge winners since 2010:

  • Davis Riley: 66th Myrtle/30th Craig Ranch/28th New Orleans/MC Copperhead.
  • Emiliano Grillo: MC PGA/23rd Quail/5th Mexico/7th Harbour Town.
  • Sam Burns: 20th PGA/MC Craig Ranch/2nd New Orleans/MC Augusta.
  • Jason Kokrak: 49th PGA/13th Copperhead/21st New Orleans /49th Augusta.
  • Daniel Berger: 4th PGA National/5th Pebble/9th TPC Scottsdale/29th PGA West.
  • Kevin Na: MC PGA/38th Trinity Forest/10th Heritage/46th Augusta.
  • Justin Rose: 23rd Sawgrass/19th New Orleans/12th Augusta/52nd Houston.
  • Kevin Kisner: 56th Sawgrass/MC Eagle Point/2nd New Orleans/11th Heritage.
  • Jordan Spieth: 18th TPC4S/MC Sawgrass/2nd Augusta/13th GC of Houston.
  • Chris Kirk: 13th Sawgrass/69th Heritage/33rd Augusta/8th TPC San Antonio.
  • Adam Scott: 38th Sawgrass/14th Augusta/3rd Bay Hill/25th Doral.
  • Boo Weekley: MC TPC4S/48th Sawgrass/58th Quail/6th New Orleans.
  • Zach Johnson: 2nd Sawgrass/69th Quail/2nd Heritage/32nd Augusta.
  • David Toms: 2nd Sawgrass/24th Quail/18th New Orleans/24th Augusta.
  • Zach Johnson: MC San Antonio/22nd Sawgrass/51st Quail/47th Heritage.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Daniel Berger; 3) Harris English; 4) Andrew Putnam; 5) Harry Hall; 6) Tommy Fleetwood; 7) Hideki Matsuyama; 8) Davis Riley; 9) J.T. Poston; 10) Aaron Rai.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Charles Schwab Challenge Winners & Prices: 2024: Riley 350/1; 2023: Grillo 80/1; 2022: Burns 30/1; 2021: Kokrak 60/1; 2020: Berger 70/1; 2019: Na 70/1; 2018: Rose 20/1; 2017: Kisner 33/1; 2016: Spieth 7/1F; 2015: Kirk 35/1; 2014: Scott 18/1; 2013: Weekley 100/1; 2012: Z Johnson 16/1; 2011: Toms 33/1; 2010: Z Johnson 50/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 118/1; Average: 65/1.

Historical Weather:

  • 2024: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with afternoon showers. High of 83. Wind S 10-20 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy with afternoon showers. High of 83. Wind S 10-20 mph. Saturday: Hot and humid conditions with temperatures in the mid-low 90s. Wind S 10-20 mph. Sunday: Sunny and hot. High of 99. Wind SW 10-20 mph.
  • 2023: Thursday: Weather: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind ESE 8-13 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 86. Wind ESE 7-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SE 8-13 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 84. Wind S 7-13 mph.
  • 2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind SW 10-15, gusting to 22 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 93. Wind Variable 3-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 97. Wind S 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 96. Wind S 16-22 mph, with gusts to 32 mph.
  • 2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 89. Wind S 12-22 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 80. Wind NE 6-12 mph. Due to heavy rain and lightning, the second round was suspended from 1:49 – 4:15 p.m. CT (2 hours, 26 minutes). Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 79. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 78. Wind ESE 10-18 mph.
  • 2020: Thursday: Sunny. High of 93. Wind E 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 95. Wind ESE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 97. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 97. Wind SE 6-12 mph.
  • 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind SSE 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 90. Wind SSE 12-18 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Saturday: Weather: Partly cloudy. High of 90. Wind SSE 7-14 mph, with gusts to 17 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Winds S 10-16 mph, with gusts to 22 mph.
  • 2018: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind SSE 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 94. Wind SSE 7-13 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 97. Wind SSE 7-14 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 99. Wind ESE 5-10 mph.
  • 2017: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 93. Wind S 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 98. Wind SW 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 96. Wind SSW 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind N 10-15 mph.
  • 2016: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind S at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy early turning to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Warm and humid, with a high of 86. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy early turning to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Warm and humid, with a high of 86. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph. Sunday: Due to early morning thunderstorms, the original tee times featuring twosomes off of one tee beginning at 7:30 a.m. were changed to a two-tee start with threesomes at 10:19 a.m. Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph
  • 2015: Weather: Thursday: Cloudy, but drier in the afternoon, with highs reaching only into the lower 60s. North wind at 10-20 mph. A total of 1.3 inches of rain fell overnight and into the morning. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 76, with N wind at 7-12 mph. Saturday: Overcast, with a high of 76. Wind SE at 15-25 mph. Sunday: Due to the likeliness of inclement weather, final-round tee times were between 7-9 a.m. Cloudy with rain most of the day and a high of 79. Wind SSW at 10-20 mph.

Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Fort Worth, Texas is here.

Compared to Quail Hollow last week, expect it to be even hotter with a similar amount of wind. High humidity and temperatures searing to 32-35 degrees Celsius (90-95 Fahrenheit) will greet the players – that’s the hottest I have recorded in 2025 to date on the PGA Tour.

Thursday looks calm – lowest scoring likely of the week. Saturday and Sunday sees the standard Texas wind in play, with 15-25mph south to south-westerly gusts predicted. There’s no imminent threat of rain, and with only 101mm – 4 inches – of rain since the start of March, I’d expect firm fairway conditions and when/if the PGA Tour allow, releasing greens. Like the PGA Championship last week, this will be no cakewalk.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Texas Children’s Houston Open / Hero Indian Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Pierceson Coody; 2) Jesper Svensson; 3) Michael Thorbjornsen; 4) Chris Gotterup; 5) Keith Mitchell; 6) Alejandro Tosti; 7) Blades Brown; 8) Scottie Scheffler; 9) Daniel Berger; 10) Maverick McNealy; 11) Patrick Fishburn; 12) Joseph Bramlett; 13) Robert MacIntyre; 14) Hayden Buckley / Jordan Spieth; 16) Kurt Kitayama / Trey Mullinax; 18) Harris English / Gary Woodland / Kevin Yu; 21) Hayden Springer; 22) Aldrich Potgieter; 23) Victor Perez; 24) J.J. Spaun; 25) Thorbjorn Olesen.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Henrik Norlander; 3) Daniel Berger; 4) Brian Campbell; 5) Ben Griffin; 6) Joseph Bramlett / Emiliano Grillo; 8) Nate Lashley; 9) Eric Cole / Nico Echavarria; 11) Tommy Fleetwood / Lucas Glover / Keith Mitchell; 14) Davis Thompson; 15) Maverick McNealy / Matti Schmid / Robby Shelton; 18) J.J. Spaun; 19) Tom Hoge / Lee Hodges / Si Woo Kim / Webb Simpson; 23) Aaron Rai / Thorbjorn Olesen; 25) Steven Fisk / Hideki Matsuyama / Gary Woodland.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Chandler Phillips; 2) Dylan Wu; 3) Matt Wallace; 4) Tommy Fleetwood; 5) Andrew Novak; 6) Taylor Moore; 7) Tom Hoge / Patrick Rodgers; 9) Davis Riley; 10) Brice Garnett; 11) Mackenzie Hughes / Aaron Rai / Greyson Sigg; 14) Max Greyserman / Sam Stevens; 16) Ryan Gerard / Jordan Spieth; 18) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 19) Michael Kim; 20) Matt Kuchar / J.T. Poston; 22) Ricky Castillo / Chris Gotterup / Chan Kim / Matt McCarty / Andrew Putnam.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Joseph Bramlett; 3) Daniel Berger; 4) Tommy Fleetwood; 5) Maverick McNealy; 6) Steven Fisk; 7) Ryan Gerard; 8) Chris Gotterup; 9) Doug Ghim; 10) Thorbjorn Olesen / Aaron Rai; 12) Keith Mitchell; 13) Si Woo Kim; 14) Chandler Phillips; 15) Ben Griffin / Nate Lashley; 17) Jordan Spieth; 18) Ricky Castillo / Kurt Kitayama; 20) J.T. Poston; 21) Eric Cole / Tom Hoge / Alex Smalley / Michael Thorbjornsen/ Alejandro Tosti.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Sam Ryder; 3) Brian Harman; 4) Eric Cole / Harry Hall; 6) Akshay Bhatia / J.T. Poston; 8) Harris English; 9) Danny Willett; 10) Joe Highsmith / Davis Riley; 12) Trey Mullinax / Jordan Spieth; 14) Max Greyserman / William Mouw; 16) Cam Davis / Tom Hoge; 18) Camilo Villegas; 19) Blades Brown / Brian Campbell / Mark Hubbard / Sam Stevens; 23) Matt Kuchar / Sami Valimaki; 25) Brice Garnett / Nate Lashley.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Daniel Berger; 3) J.T. Poston; 4) Harris English / Jordon Spieth; 6) Eric Cole / Ryan Gerard / Keith Mitchell; 9) Thorbjorn Olesen; 10) Maverick McNealy; 11) Harry Hall; 12) Joseph Bramlett / Chris Gotterup / Tom Hoge; 15) Ben Griffin; 16) Brian Harman / Nate Lashley; 18) Mark Hubbard / Sami Valimaki; 20) Blades Brown / Ricky Castillo / Mackenzie Hughes / Michael Thorbjornsen; 24) Si Woo Kim / Andrew Novak / Kevin Yu.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of Charles Schwab Challenge winners here since 2024 – Gil Hanse renovation – gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2024, Davis Riley (-14). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 39th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 4th.

From the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge, statistically from a Stroke Gained perspective Davis Riley gained 2.85 strokes per round from Tee to Green (66%) and 1.48 Putting (44%).

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Charles Schwab Challenge winners here since 2024 – Gil Hanse renovation – gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2024, Davis Riley (-14). 319 yards (5th), 57.1% fairways (38th), 68.1% greens in regulation (3rd), 69.6 % scrambling (16th), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st).

For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Colonial Country Club click here.

Let’s take a view from players as to how the revised Gil Hanse Colonial sets-up and what skill sets the course favours:

Davis Riley (2024): “For sure, certainly on the greens it’s a lot different. There’s definitely a big learning curve Tuesday and Wednesday. Definitely the par-3s look a little bit different. I would say just getting used to the firmness into the greens, different contours on the greens. I just feel like I spent a lot of time Tuesday, Wednesday around and on the greens. Tee to green is fairly similar with the exception of the par-3s. Yeah, just a lot of work around the greens.

Yeah, I feel like the key to this place is putting the ball in the fairway, because it’s long, but if you’re hitting the fairways, there’s a little bit of run out, so you have some scoring clubs in your hands. If you’re able to execute the shots from the fairways you’re going to have some decent looks. I feel like I was hitting the ball in the fairway for the most part of the day and hitting my irons good and giving myself good looks and I had the putter rolling, so I feel like just a lot of fairways and greens and then rolling, you know, I feel like the putts that I feel like I needed to.

Brian Harman (2024): “I loved the old course so much, I had so many laps around this place, it’s one that I always had circled. I felt like I had a little bit of knowledge especially on the younger guys trying to play Colonial for the first couple times. But, yeah, we’re all on the same footing now, but I feel like the essence of the course is still the same. You got to hit some really demanding tee shots and if you can pull those off, you get some shorter clubs into the holes. So I don’t feel like that the main theme of this place has changed a whole lot.”

Keegan Bradley (2024): “Well, I think you have to think a little bit more. Like the second hole is an example. It’s short, hitting driver, you can err on that left side in the rough, at least you can hit the green. So you kind of, when you get on the tee, you have to think of those things. The right rough you can’t hit the green. I don’t know, it’s just you got to think your way around here.”

Tom Hoge (2024): “Just how smooth they roll really. I know from being in the area since college in 2007, when you get the heat here on these bent grass greens, I mean, I know at times they have had temporary greens here in the past because they have been so soft and really haven’t rolled well. But to see them this week, my first steps on ’em, it really didn’t look like bent grass, it looked more like Bermuda grass almost when you got on ’em. They really have this firmness, the ball’s rolling out when you get on ’em. So it really does change strategy. You got to be in the fairway here this week to have any sort of control coming into these greens. I think the golf course will play quite a bit more difficult this year as a result.”

Jordan Spieth (2024): “Some of the intricacies of the pin locations that we had that you had every single year you knew exactly where it was going to be, but it still would fool you. Even though the green’s in a different location in space, right, they’re lowered or they’re moved or whatever, some of these hole locations and slopes on those greens have been maintained. 17 and 18 in particular, to have essentially the same putts that you’re used to seeing, but it’s a different green and a different hole all together. Then you have a number of greens that are completely different and in a different place. That mix was kind of cool to the nerd in me to be able to still draw back on some putts that I’ve had in the past and some course knowledge, but there’s at the same time on you can throw it out the window on a lot of other holes.

About 13, I told Gil, I said, the only one that didn’t, that kind of stood out and wasn’t like the others was 13. As long as the right tee box is played I think it’s a fantastic par-3. But if it could also be — it could be the best hole on the course or the worst hole on the course depending upon where the tees are, given the hole locations and the wind. The firmness of the greens, it’s not really, doesn’t seem to me to be able to yield holding 5-irons, but if it’s a mid iron in, a good shot gets really rewarded. Then if you miss in the wrong spot, you can be in big trouble. You could have over 10 feet for par even hitting a good chip. So it’s a good risk/reward par-3 from the right tee box now. It was probably the most shocked of any hole that I walked up to the green to that I saw yesterday.”

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

  • 2024 – Hoffman – PM -5/65 -125/1.
  • 2023 – Hall – AM -8/62 -150/1.
  • 2022 – Davis/Hossler/Kirk/Reed/Scheffler/Simpson/N Taylor – 4AM/3PM  -4/66 – 100/1, 150/1, 55/1, 70/1, 25/1, 50/1, & 125/1.
  • 2021 – Garcia / Spieth – AM/PM  -7/63 – 66/1 & 25/1.
  • 2020 – Rose / Varner III – AM/PM  -7/63 – 50/1 & 125/1.
  • 2019 – Finau – AM -6/65 – 40/1.
  • 2018 – Na – PM -8/62 – 66/1.
  • 2017 – Fathauer / Kraft / Poston – 1AM/2PM -5/65.
  • 2016 – Molder – AM -6/64.
  • 2015 – Ishikawa / Na / Spieth / Weekley – 2AM/2PM -6/64.
  • 2014 – D Johnson – PM -5/65.
  • 2013 – Palmer – AM -8/62.
  • 2012 – Johnson – AM -6/64.
  • 2011 – Reavie / Toms – AM -8/62.
  • 2010 – Adams / Bohn / Overton – 2AM/1PM Split -7/63.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 5 – Jordan Spieth.
  • 4 – Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson.
  • 3 – Lucas Glover, Matt Kuchar, Scottie Scheffler, Jhonattan Vegas.
  • 2 – Rickie Fowler, Brian Harman, Tom Kim, Chris Kirk, J.T. Poston.
  • 1 – Daniel Berger, Nico Echavarria, Emiliano Grillo, Harry Hall, Lee Hodges, Charley Hoffman, Michael Kim, Tom Kim, Kevin Kisner, Matt McCarty, Trey Mullinax, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, Brandt Snedeker, Davis Thompson, Danny Willett.

Colonial has a habit of producing shorter-priced winners. Triple-digit winners are a rarity – but it happened last year!

Justin Rose won at 20/1 in 2018 whilst Kevin Kisner won at 33/1 in 2016 and Jordan Spieth was the 7/1 favourite in 2015. Chris Kirk delivered at 35/1 in 2015, whilst Adam Scott was 18/1 in 2014. Previous to that, winner prices at the Crowne Plaza Invitational read: 2009: 28/1; 2010: 50/1; 2011: 33/1; 2012: 16/1. Outside of that, the in-form Boo Weekley scored here in 2014 at a very nice 100/1. However there has been a change of pace when we look at the last 6 champions here.

Kevin Na won this at 70/1 in 2019, Daniel Berger at 70/1, Jason Kokrak at 60/1, Sam Burns at 30/1 and Emiliano Grillo at 80/1. That averages through across the last 5 renewals at 62/1. 12 months ago all of this was blown out of the water as Davis Riley won at 350/1.

It’s clear that experience wins around Colonial with all winners here since 2004 having played a minimum of 2 tournament appearances prior. But as with many a classical golf course, both short-game specialists or grinding ball-strikers can get the job done at Colonial Country Club, where scoring is generally low-teens to mid-teens under par unless the wind really blows.

From a course form perspective, we have seen mixed looks in terms of winners’ profiles here of late. Burns’ 2022 win here came in his third visit to Colonial with course form of MC/31. Berger’s win here in 2020 also came in his third appearance, where he had MC/53 to his name prior. Justin Rose’s victory here in 2018 was his first ever in Texas and came in his 5th appearance at Colonial. In those preceding visits to Fort Worth his best finish had been 13th way back on course debut in 2005. Adam Scott won here with nothing better than 64th and 65th in 2 previous appearances.

But conversely Riley (4th), Grillo (3rd and 8th), Kokrak (3rd), Na (4th, 7th, 9th and 10th), Kisner (5th and 10th), Kirk (5th), Weekley (9th), Zach Johnson (1st, 4th, 9th) and Toms (2nd, 3rd, 4th) all had top 10 results here before triumphing since 2011.

My Final Charles Schwab Challenge Tips For 2025 Are As Follows:

Scottie Scheffler 8Pts Enhanced Win Only 13/5 with bet365

I can hear the tuts at the back, but let’s start with Scottie Scheffler. Stating the obvious, the Texan World Number 1 is going to take all the beating this week in his home town event. He won the last PGA Tour event in Texas – the CJ Cup Byron Nelson played in Dallas – and I think that he’ll certainly be going for the win this week at a tournament the Scheffler family, including dad Scott, hold dear in their hearts.

He also has previous when it comes to victories in bunches. 2022 saw him win the Waste Management Phoenix Open for his maiden PGA Tour victory. He then proceeded to win 4 of his next 6 tournaments, adding the Arnold Palmer Invitational, WGC Dell Technologies World Match Play and then The Masters.

In 2024 it was much of the same with 4 victories from 5 starts, winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship in consecutive starts, plus then taking out the RBC Heritage the week after winning the Masters at Augusta National. Nobody had won at Augusta National and Harbour Town in consecutive weeks since Bernhard Langer in 1985.

And that’s the thing with Scottie Scheffler. I was never really a golf lover when Tiger Woods was in his true prime, but I know for sure that Scheffler is the closest thing I have seen to the great Woods since watching and betting on golf avidly since 2008. I grant you that the World Number 1 has never won 3 PGA Tour starts consecutively – but that’s the kind of situation that will only motivate him more this week.

2nd (2022), 3rd (2023) and 2nd (2024) here at Colonial, it’s only a matter of time before he wins the Charles Schwab Challenge. Plus he’ll be conserving energy by being in his own house this week and sleeping in his own bed. It’s also worth remembering that his T2 finish here last year came the week after he was arrested in Louisville, Kentucky on the Friday morning of the PGA Championship. His mental situation will undoubtedly be clearer and more focussed to win at a tournament he loves dearly.

100/30 with bet365 and 3/1 with Paddy Power/Skybet to win the U.S. Open in June, if you are going to take a wafer-thin price on Scottie, I’d argue it’s this week where there is no Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau or Jon Rahm to contend with. And as I have said in my introduction, Scheffler has won 10 of his last 26 starts – that’s a 38% success-rate – starting with the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Plus he’s finished T2 in a further 3 of those 26 starts.

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Harris English 2pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Harris English is perfectly suited for the classical, Colonial test this week and his game is undoubtedly on the upturn. 12th at The Masters, 11th at the Truist and a fast-finishing T2 at last week’s PGA Championship is not to be sniffed at.

Last time the Ryder Cup was played in the United States was in 2021, when Harris was a Team USA member, and 2025 is taking a similar lean to 4 years ago. Back then English won in January at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He then went on to finish 3rd at the Torrey Pines-hosted U.S. Open and won the Travelers Championship the week after at 45/1. 2025 has seen the 35 year-old, who lives on Sea Island, Georgia, win the Farmers Insurance Open in January and now capture his career-best Major finish at Quail Hollow – where he ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained Tee to Green.  7th – one spot outside the autos – for Ryder Cup qualification, a second win of the season here at Colonial would undoubtedly put English in a strong position to at least get a pick from US Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley.

Wins at TPC Southwind (2013), El Camaleon (2013) and TPC River Highlands (2021) – short to medium length non-Par 72s – correlate well with Colonial, and his form here in Fort Worth is eyecatching. 5th on debut in 2012, Harris has finished 30th (2014), 2nd (2016), 29th (2017), 20th (2018) and 12th (2023) across 9 appearances. He was also the 36-hole leader here in 2023. English ranks 4th for Strokes Gained Total of players in this week’s field who have played Colonial multiple times, behind Davis Riley, Jordan Spieth and Scottie Scheffler.

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Bud Cauley 1pt EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Bud Cauley started 2025 on a Major Medical Extension, fighting for his PGA Tour career. That exemption has now been fulfilled with the 35 year-old Floridian now sitting comfortably in the mid-80s on the Official World Golf Rankings and 50th in the FedEx Cup standings. He just made the cut at a Major Championship for only the 5th time in his career – 72nd last week – and amazingly for the first time since 2020, so things are looking just rosy for Bud at the moment.

But like all professional golfers he’ll be looking for more. A good week at the Charles Schwab could see him into the Signature-level Memorial Tournament next week. He finished 9th at Muirfield Village in 2019, mixing it with some of the best on the PGA Tour. He’s not in the U.S. Open field, so there’s still plenty to play for. 6th at the Players Championship, 4th at the Valspar Championship and 5th at the Valero Texas Open prior to The Masters, Cauley has played some great stuff in 2025 and the tight, tough, Par 70 at Colonial should play to his strengths far more than Quail Hollow at +7,600 yards.

3rd (2012) at Bay Hill, 3rd (2012) at Sedgefield, 4th (2011) and 4th (2012) at Annandale, 5th (2024) at the Country Club of Jackson, 8th (2016) at Sea Island, Bud has always been comfortable on Bermudagrass golf courses – remember Colonial is Bermuda from Tee to Green. Plus he’s often gone well in the Lone Star State. Cauley has competed 24 times in Texas, finishing 4th (2016) and 5th (2017) on the Bentgrass greened, Par 70 at Las Colinas (Byron Nelson). 8th (2012) and 9th (2019) at the GC of Houston plus 5th (2025) and 10th (2017) at TPC San Antonio, Cauley has 3 top-5, 6 top-10 and 11 top-21 finishes in Texas.

3 top-29 finishes here at Colonial, a high scoring, technical test this week with firm conditions and wind should suit a relatively fresh Bud Cauley down to the ground.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 13:20BST 19.5.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.