Congratulations if you were on-board the punt of last week, Keegan Bradley, at Monday best price of 40/1 (Betfred). I had Viktor Hovland right in the mix on Sunday, but had to make do with a full each-way return at 20/1.
After the ZOZO Championship near Tokyo, the South Korean sponsored CJ Cup will be played on US soil, as it was in 2020 and 2021. The CJ Cup in South Carolina is the result, which in essence sees the sixth CJ Cup with the same 78-man field with no cut format again in operation.
Rory McIlroy won in Las Vegas last year and this year defends the title at Congaree Golf Club, which we saw on the PGA Tour in 2021 when it hosted the Palmetto Championship. With a $10.5 million purse this week, which is the largest player fund for a tournament in the United Stated this autumn, the field as you would expect is excellent, attracted by huge hauls of both FedEx Cup and OWGR points in this no-cut tournament.
The CJ Cup field comprises 78 attendees including the top 60 available players from the closing 2022 FedEx Cup rankings, 10 PGA Tour sponsor’s exemptions, and a number of South Korean players – some familiar, some not. 15 of the top 20 players in the Official Golf World Ranking play this week and the depth of the field can be seen in the sponsor’s exemption list, which contains Jason Day, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Taylor Montgomery, Webb Simpson, Danny Willett and Gary Woodland – not too shabby I think you will agree.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the CJ Cup, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: Set in the lowlands of South Carolina, Congaree is no ordinary golf club. Established in 2018 and designed by Tom Fazio, the course is set on more than 2,000 acres of undeveloped forest and lakes, which was once a rice plantation. The architecture has touches of the famous Australian sandbelt courses, with the course hopefully (you never know with the PGA Tour) playing fast and firm as intended. And this course is certainly different to your standard Tour stop-off with masses of sandy waste areas and little rough. So players are either on the fairway or in sand, with elevated greens featuring shaved run-offs.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Tom Fazio designs include:
Atunyote GC – Turning Stone Championship 2007-10.
Caves Valley GC – BMW Championship 2021.
Conway Farms GC – BMW Championship 2013, 2015, 2017.
Corales GC – Corales Championship.
Eagle Point – Wells Fargo Championship 2017.
Raptor Course Greyhawk GC – Fry’s.com Open 2008/09.
Congaree GC, Ridgeland, South Carolina: Designer: Tom Fazio 2017; Course Type: Carolina, Mid-Score, Long; Par: 71; Length: 7,655 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 10; Fairways: TifGrand Bermudagrass; Greens: 6,150 sq.ft average featuring Champion Bermudagrass; Tournament Stimp: 11ft; Scoring Average: 2021: 71.74 (+0.74), Difficulty Rank 12 of 51 courses.
Course Overview: This will be the third year in a row that the CJ Cup takes place outside of South Korea. We’ve seen it played in Las Vegas over recent renewals at Shadow Creek (2020) and The Summit Club (2021), but 2022 sees a move from Nevada to South Carolina. In fact the CJ Cup in 2022 takes place at Congaree Country Club, which we saw on the PGA Tour back in June 2021 when it hosted the Palmetto Championship, the week before the U.S. Open. Garrick Higgo was the winner.
The Congaree course is not your standard PGA Tour golf course. At 7,655 yards and a Par 71, Congaree is long and the scorecard remains exactly the same as we saw at the Palmetto. It’s difficult to find comparable courses in the United States. The closest, logical, course is the famous Carolina Lowcountry classic that is Pinehurst Number 2, where they played the 2014 U.S. Open won at a canter by Martin Kaymer. Little rough and huge sandy waste areas are pretty much on every par-4 and par-5. Fairways are extremely accommodating in width, but stray and you can become a victim of numerous fairway sharp edges like those found in the Australian sandbelt, with balls plunging into hazards of various guises. There is no rough on this golf course. All sandy expanses at Congaree are deemed natural areas, so players are permitted to ground their club on address at any point.
The course is relatively flat, with a change of only about 30 feet from its highest to lowest points, but there are some cavernous bunkers and vast waste areas. Sand is simply everywhere on this course. So with Pinehurst Number 2, you can add the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, into the “shares features with” list. I also see comparables with TPC Louisiana where they play the Zurich Classic of New Orleans (team event) and even TPC Boston in terms of topography, which has been host to the Deutsche Bank, Dell Technologies and Northern Trust over the years.
Green complexes are also fascinating. Most are raised and few, if any, feature rough. Many are also pitched with slopes angled towards waiting hazards, be that sand or water. There are definite links aspects to this course, with putting from off the green (the Texas wedge), likely to be a well used shot this week. So the ability, as per genuine links courses, to use the ground to your advantage, proved to be a real positive at the Palmetto in 2021.
Length-wise, the longest par-4s measure in at 475 (17th), 490 (11th), 510 (9th), 520 (6th), and 540 (8th) yards. The 3rd (360 yards) and 15th (also 360 yards) offer risk-reward aspects, with drives onto green complexes a reality in 2021. A genuine Par 71 with 3 par-5s, the front-side features 2 of them. The 2nd at 595 yards and 4th at 645 yards are certainly on the long side, whilst on the homeward 9, the 12th is the shortest at 580 yards.
From an agronomy detail perspective, similar Champion Bermudagrass greens can be found across PGA Tour stop-offs at Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship), Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), TPC Southwind (FedEx St Jude Classic, WGC St Jude Invitational and St Jude Championship), the Country Club of Jackson (Sanderson Farms Championship), Trinity Forest (2018 + 2019 HP Byron Nelson) and the Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail (Barbasol Championship 2015 through 2017). The 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Club and won by Keegan Bradley also featured Champion Bermudagrass putting surfaces.
CJ Cup Winners: Hosted at The Summit Club: 2021: Rory McIlroy (-25); Hosted at Shadow Creek: 2020: Jason Kokrak (-20); Hosted at Nine Bridges: 2019: Justin Thomas (-20); 2018: Brooks Koepka (-21); 2017: Justin Thomas (-9).
OWGR of Winners: 2021: McIlroy 14; 2020: Kokrak 53; 2019: Thomas 5; 2018: Koepka 3; 2017: Thomas 4.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Luke List, Sungjae Im, Cam Young, Sam Burns and Keegan Bradley.
CJ Cup Winners & Prices: 2021: McIlroy 22/1; 2020: Kokrak 100/1; 2019: Thomas 15/2; 2018: Koepka 10/1; 2017: Thomas 8/1. Overall Average: 30/1.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Ridgeland, South Carolina, is here.
The Congaree experience is all about firm course conditions. Roll out on the fairways and releasing greens are the main defence of this course. Just over an inch of rain fell last week here, but the forecast suggests no rain. Tally that up against low overnight temperatures and considerably lower day time temperatures than we saw for the Palmetto which was played in June, and I can’t see this playing as firm as we saw in 2021. With little wind in the forecast I’m expecting a mid-score kind of winning score in the mid-to-high teens.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Tour Championship / Omega European Masters, which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Justin Thomas; 3) Keegan Bradley; 4) Scottie Scheffler; 5) Keith Mitchell; 6) Sungjae Im; 7) Collin Morikawa / Jon Rahm / Cam Young; 10) Jordan Spieth; 11) Sam Burns / Max Homa; 13) K.H. Lee; 14) Si Woo Kim; 15) Sepp Straka; 16) Shane Lowry; 17) S.H. Kim; 18) Tom Hoge / Scott Stallings; 20) Cam Davis / Brian Harman; 22) Matt Fitzpatrick; 23) Billy Horschel / Matt Kuchar; 25) Tyrrell Hatton.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Mito Pereira / Jordan Spieth; 3) Collin Morikawa; 4) Tom Kim; 5) Scottie Scheffler / Sepp Straka; 7) Tom Hoge; 8) Sungjae Im / Si Woo Kim; 10) Jason Day; 11) Brian Harman; 12) Hideki Matsuyama; 13) Adam Hadwin / Justin Thomas; 15) Cam Young; 16) Matt Kuchar; 17) Shane Lowry; 18) Davis Riley; 19) Rickie Fowler / Jon Rahm; 21) Max Homa / Billy Horschel / Andrew Putnam; 24) Kurt Kitayama; 25) Gary Woodland.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 2) Justin Thomas; 3) Scott Stallings; 4) Kurt Kitayama / Scottie Scheffler; 6) Byeong Hun An; 7) Collin Morikawa; 8) Matt Kuchar / Alex Noren; 10) Aaron Wise; 11) Tom Kim / Hideki Matsuyama / Rory McIlroy / Jordan Spieth; 15) K.H. Lee; 16) Max Homa; 17) Cam Young; 18) Tyrrell Hatton; 19) Sungjae Im; 20) Sepp Straka; 21) Seamus Power; 22) Tommy Fleetwood / Beau Hossler; 24) Harris English; 25) Jon Rahm / Danny Willett.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Mito Pereira; 2) Tom Kim / Collin Morikawa; 4) Scottie Scheffler; 5) Sungjae Im / Justin Thomas; 7) Rory McIlroy / Jordan Spieth; 9) Sepp Straka; 10) Matt Kuchar; 11) Si Woo Kim; 12) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 13) Tom Hoge / Jon Rahm; 15) Brian Harman / Shane Lowry; 17) Max Homa; 18) Kurt Kitayama / Scott Stallings; 20) K.H. Lee / Cam Young; 22) Viktor Hovland; 23) Hideki Matsuyama; 24) Sam Burns; 25) Billy Horschel.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Keegan Bradley / Tom Kim; 3) Taylor Montgomery / Jon Rahm; 5) Justin Thomas; 6) Sepp Straka; 7) Cam Young; 8) S.H. Kim; 9) Max Homa; 10) Sungjae Im; 11) Tom Hoge; 12) Jordan Spieth; 13) Hideki Matsuyama / Aaron Wise; 15) Si Woo Kim; 16) Scottie Scheffler; 17) Alex Smalley; 18) Rory McIlroy / Collin Morikawa; 20) Billy Horschel; 21) Danny Willett; 22) Andrew Putnam; 23) Emiliano Grillo / Scott Stallings; 25) Adam Hadwin / Tyrrell Hatton.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Keegan Bradley / Rory McIlroy; 3) Justin Thomas; 4) Jon Rahm; 5) Tom Hoge / Max Homa; 7) Taylor Montgomery; 8) Matt Kuchar; 9) Sungjae Im / Tom Kim / Scottie Scheffler / Jordan Spieth; 13) Viktor Hovland; 14) Brian Harman / Sepp Straka; 16) S.H. Kim; 17) Billy Horschel; 18) Shane Lowry / Andrew Putnam; 20) Hideki Matsuyama / Mito Pereira; 22) Si Woo Kim / Scott Stallings; 24) Sam Burns / Rickie Fowler / Adam Hadwin / Sahith Theegala.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Garrick Higgo here at the 2021 Palmetto Championship gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this specialised test:
2021, Garrick Higgo (-11). 317 yards (23rd), 64.3% fairways (53rd), 75.0% greens in regulation (3rd), 39’2″ proximity to hole (17th), 55.6 % scrambling (51st), 1.69 putts per GIR (7th).
Strokes Gained Performance:
2021, Garrick Higgo (-11). SG Off the Tee: 13th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 40th, SG Tee to Green: 8th, SG Putting: 15th.
So let’s take a view from players as to how Congaree Golf Club sets-up and what skill sets the course favours:
Tyrrell Hatton: “I think the guys going out this afternoon, it’s going to be tough for them. Certainly our last sort of five, six holes, it was awkward because you can hit a nice shot and you get a gust of wind, and obviously that sort of takes the ball where it’s not meant to go. We certainly had that into the 4th hole with our third shot on the par-5, wedge has gone 110 yards, which is like mind blowing really. It’s certainly going to play tougher. I’m quite thankful I’m done for the day.”
Harris English: “On the short par-4, the 3rd hole I went for it. On the practice round I was kind of between 3-wood and driver. I feel like with 3-wood, it’s going to run through the fairway anyway. I may as well hit driver and go for the green. The last two days, drove that green with my driver, so it’s been working.”
Seamus Power:” I think it’s beautiful. It’s tricky, and I’m guessing, if we don’t get much rain, the weekend is going to be tougher. You’ve got to think your way around it. In certain spots, and it happened to me on 17, I got a little trouble off the tee, maybe tried to be a bit too aggressive, and all of a sudden I have a six footer to save a bogey. I like it in that sense.
You can’t just go at every hole. You get too aggressive, and you run into bunkers. You got to hit it in some good spots, and I was able to do that today, so hopefully I can keep it up over the weekend.”
Dustin Johnson:” It’s different, especially for a course in South Carolina. It’s not really any rough, but there’s fairways that’s firm. The ball’s running out pretty good. The course, it’s just a neat course to play. It’s something different. We don’t really play golf courses that look like this very often.
Yeah, well obviously these greens there’s a lot of times the ball rolls just off the green, but it’s still a pretty good shot. So a lot of times it was with the putter and, yeah, like I said, I just left it in, missed it on the right sides of the hole and gave myself chances all the time.”
Kevin Kisner: “Yeah, I think the golf course is designed to play firm and fast. Unfortunately, we’ve had a lot of rain, which is common in the South in June. They’re hoping to miss these storms today and tomorrow and let the golf course continue to firm up. You’ll see a variety of shots from around the greens with no rough and run-offs into collection areas. Guys can putt it, chip it, or use bump and runs, kind of like you see links style in Scotland or England. I’m looking forward to seeing how guys attack it.
I don’t think it’s going to play that long (the course is a 7,655 yard, Par 71) if we don’t get much more significant rain because the golf course is built on sand and it drains extremely well and the surface is firm. The idea of how it’s designed is for the ball to be on the ground and running into places you don’t really want it to if you’re not controlling the golf ball. I think the biggest defense of the golf course is the green complexes and the surrounds. If it gets firm enough, you can touch the green probably 12 or 15 times with your approach shot and not end up on the green but half the time. Having the correct curve and really big on distance control, I think, is going to be a big key going into the greens.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the CJ Cup since 2017:
2021 – Robert Streb -11/61 – Group 5 of 26 – All 1st Tee – 150/1
2020 – Tyrrell Hatton -7/65 – Group 5 of 13 – 10th Tee – 33/1
2019 – Byeong Hun An -8/64 – Group 12 of 13 – 1st Tee – 45/1
2018 – Chez Reavie -4/68 – Group 8 of 13 – 10th Tee – 80/1
2017 – Justin Thomas -9/63 – Group 4 of 13 – 10th Tee – 12/1
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
7 – Rory McIlroy
6 – Justin Thomas.
5 – Jordan Spieth.
4 – Jason Day, Billy Horschel.
3 – Sam Burns, Kevin Kisner, Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Palmer, Scottie Scheffler.
2 – Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Russell Henley, Chris Kirk, Jon Rahm, Webb Simpson.
1 – Keegan Bradley, Adam Hadwin, Tyrrell Hatton, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Keith Mitchell, Collin Morikawa, Sebastian Munoz, J.T Poston, J.J. Spaun, Scott Stallings, Sepp Straka, Aaron Wise, Gary Woodland.
We have a little to go on this week with Congaree Golf Club featuring on the 2021 PGA Tour at the Palmetto Championship, won by Garrick Higgo. But let’s look into some CJ Cup trends with the tournament into its sixth renewal. In Justin Thomas (2017), Brooks Koepka (2018), Justin Thomas (2019) and Rory McIlroy (2021), we have winners that have won at 8/1, 10/1, 15/2 and 22/1 respectively. Jason Kokrak broke that short price mould in 2020 when he won his first PGA Tour title at 100/1.
Both Thomas and Koepka were within the top 5 in the Official World Golf Ranking and had seen action in the new PGA Tour season which starts in September. Jason Kokrak had already played on the PGA Tour in the new season and was 53rd in the OWGR. Last year Rory McIlroy was ranked 14th in the world, but had not played a new season event. Instead he had played in the Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits, 3 weeks prior.
For those who had seen competitive action in the new season, 2017 saw Justin Thomas finish 17th at the CIMB Classic when defending. 2018 saw Brooks Koepka finish 7th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and 2019 saw Justin Thomas capture his second CJ Cup title after finishing 4th at the Safeway Open. 2020 saw Kokrak finish 17th at the U.S. Open and miss the cut the week before at the Shriners Open.
Thomas and Koepka victories all came off the back of recent wins in the 2017 Dell Technologies (September), 2018 PGA Championship (August) and 2019 BMW Championship (September). McIlroy stretches that trend with his 2021 Wells Fargo Championship coming in May.
Justin Thomas 3pts EW 14/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
In an event where we have seen 15/2, 10/1, 8/1 and 22/1 winners across 4 of the 5 renewals, I don’t think it’s a bad plan to start this week’s selections with a short price and although Rory McIlroy is well respected, I have plumped for Justin Thomas. After 4th for 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship and with 4 wins from 5 matches at the President’s Cup, JT has to be one to follow this week at Congaree.
A 6-time Bermudagrass PGA Tour winner – 2nd in this field behind only McIlroy – Justin has always been comfortable on this kind of dance floor, and he’s more than adept on the Champion variety. 4th at the Country Club of Jackson way back in 2014, Thomas also landed his first Major Championship on the same green surfaces when he lifted the Wannamaker Trophy at Quail Hollow in 2017. He also won a WGC title on Champion Bermuda when lifting the St Jude Championship trophy in 2020, so I think he will be just fine on the 6,150 sq.ft average green complexes this week.
And on a wide test where fairways are easy to find and distance control will be vital, it’s worthy of note that Thomas ranked 8th for Strokes Gained on Approach last season and, more importantly, 1st for Fairway Proximity. Fact is he’s deadly from 175 yards and in.
I’m also a believer in biorhythms and Thomas has always been a player who goes well in the autumn. His first and second PGA Tour wins in Malaysia (2015 and 2016), plus CJ Cup (2017 and 2019) triumphs, all came within the months of October and November. With a single 2022 victory at the PGA Championship back in May, I’m expecting JT to go well this week at a tournament he’s always held in high regard. RESULT: T40
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Sam Burns 2pts EW 28/1 (7EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Sam Burns has always been one to thrive in the Southern United States, and that makes sense for a player who was born, educated and still lives in Louisiana. Burns has always been a player who thrives on Bermudagrass, and that was made clear as far back as the 2017 Barbasol Championship, played at the Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail in Alabama. Sam finished 6th as an amateur on a course which featured Champion Bermudagrass greens. From there 8th at the 2018 Honda Classic saw Sam go head-to-head with Tiger Woods and beat him, and 12th on his next PGA Tour outing at the Valspar Championship highlighted a youngster with star quality.
2018 though was all about a Korn Ferry Tour campaign where 2nd in Columbia (Bermudagrass greens) and 1st at the Savannah Championship, played in Georgia on Bermudagrass greens, had his PGA Tour card locked up by April. Intriguingly the Savannah win came on the Deere Creek Course at The Landings Club, which is a Tom Fazio design just 70 miles down IS95.
Over 4 years on and Sam now ranks 12th in the OWGR and is a 4-time PGA Tour champion, with 3 of those victories having come on Bermudagrass greens, across Copperhead (2021 and 2022) plus the Country Club of Jackson (2021). His most recent win, and biggest of his career to date, came at the Colonial Country Club in May, a course which despite featuring Bentgrass greens, also has Bermudagrass fairways and rough. In addition, 6th (2020) at PGA West, 9th (2022) at Bay Hill, 9th (2019) at Harbour Town, 4th (2021) and 2nd (2022) at TPC Louisiana, 2nd at TPC Southwind (2021), 3rd (2019) at Jackson, plus 7th (2020 and 2021) at Memorial Park, highlight that Sam is severely Bermudagrass positive.
I love his chances this week at a Congaree Golf Course where power off the tee is no bad thing, and it’s worth noting that he ranked 1st for Strokes Gained Off the Tee when finishing 30th at the Sanderson Farms a fortnight ago. RESULT: T7
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World Number 27 Sepp Straka continues to get disrespected in the betting markets. but a mix of his current form and liking for Bermudagrass sees him in this week’s CJ Cup squad. Across his last 5 outings he has finished 2nd at the St Jude Championship, 28th at the BMW Championship, 6th for 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship and 2nd at the Sanderson Farms Championship when we were on-board at 45/1. 45th at the ZOZO last week in Japan was no concern for a player who was on his first trip to the Far East.
Fact is that Sepp is majorly Bermudagrass positive as we found out in Memphis, Atlanta and Jackson recently. You can add to that his win at the Honda Classic (PGA National), 3rd at Harbour Town and 9th at TPC Sawgrass this year; plus 4th and 5th in Houston (2019 CC of Houston & 2020 Memorial Park) and 4th at PGA West (2020).
Across my 8-week Strokes Gained tracker, Sepp sits 9th for Tee to Green, 6th for Putting and 14th for Strokes Gained Total. RESULT: T62
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Popular last week with punters because of his experience in Asia, I think the course will suit Kurt Kitayama more this week. 29th at the ZOZO last week was on a Narashino set-up which was ultimately too tight off the tee for the 29 year-old. I’m thinking though with wide fairways on offer this week, Kurt will be able to make more use of both his prodigious length off the tee and his strong Tee to Green game at present – where he ranks in the top 18 in this field over the past 8 weeks.
3rd at the Honda Classic in February, 2nd at the Mexico Open in May, and 2nd at the Scottish Open in July, Kitayama stands at 56th in the OWGR right now, knowing that a big week would boost him into the top 50 for the first time ever. I like him on more stringent tests where scoring isn’t super low, so Congaree could well be a good test for him, especially if he can keep the ball in-play off the tee, and utilise his excellent Strokes Gained Approach and Around the Green game, which we have seen of late. RESULT: 2nd
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