Czech Masters Tips 2019

The late addition of Eddie Pepperell to the field has created a strong top end to the market with recent two-time winner Bernd Wiesberger heading affairs from Erik Van Rooyen, Lee Westwood and Pepperell himself. All 4 rate as 14/1 shots or shorter, however I’m starting this week’s team a little further down the list with Eddie’s good friend Tom Lewis.

After a sparkling amateur career which culminated in him being Leading Amateur at the 2011 Open Championship, then a whirlwind start to his professional career where he won the Portugal Masters on just his third professional start, things quickly turned sour for the Englishman. A loss of form and serious falling out with the game led to him plumbing the depths of the OWGR and ultimately losing his card, however it was almost exactly a year ago that he started to get his game and his mental approach back on track and the results came thick and fast. 10th in Prague on the Challenge Tour and 3rd in Sweden at the same level paved the way for victory at the Bridgestone Challenge last September and he quickly followed that up by repeating his Portugal Masters feat of 7 years prior when he held off Lucas Herbert and his mate Eddie by 3 strokes.

10th at the Dunhill Links, 5th at the British Masters and 7th at the Earth Course completed a resurgent 2018 and he began 2019 in similar fashion with 9th in Abu Dhabi and 3rd in Saudi Arabia. Save for the truly elite players, professional golfers rarely maintain that kind of level for a sustained period and he’s been understandably quiet of late –  until that is he produced a big Major Championship personal best on his last start by finishing 11th at Royal Portrush. The power-packed 28 year-old showed at The Open that he also has the right blend of tee-to-green control to compete against the top players in world golf and this significant step down in class should provide another big chance to add to his trophy cabinet.

The Welwyn Garden City man’s short-term objectives are twofold: breaking the OWGR top-50 by the end of the year and finishing inside the top-30 in the Race To Dubai. Ranking 79th on the former and 45th on the latter, Tom’s well within reach of both targets if he can take the momentum from Northern Ireland forward into this final stretch of European Tour events. Aside from Vilamoura, the Albatross here in Prague has been one of his happiest hunting grounds with 4 cuts made from 5 attempts and 3rd and 6th place finishes recorded in his last 2 visits; with his spirits high, his long game in good shape and the course suiting, I can see him seriously contending here this week. Result: WD

Indifferent form has seen Julian Suri‘s price push out to a backable level, however I think there’s a lot to like about the aggressive American if you can look past a recent string of results that reads MC/MC/15/MC/55. Prior to that he’d looked very much like he was going to add to his 2017 Made In Denmark victory, which still counts as his only European Tour success: 4th at the Indian Open, where save for one disastrous hole he’d have won at a canter, and 2nd on his next start in Morocco both could have been victories if things had gone his way. Despite not hitting the same heights since, he was still prominent at Valderrama, sitting 11th into the weekend, and opening rounds of 68/66 at the Renaissance Club on his last start showed some promise before he tailed off over the weekend.

The 28 year-old’s other professional victory came on the Challenge Tour in the Czech Republic at another D+D Real sponsored event and although the similar naming convention to this week’s event holds little, if any, water, the fact the he’s seen success in this neck of the woods should instil a level of confidence and comfort as he approaches this week’s task.

His solitary piece of course form – 34th in 2017 – also needs to be taken into context as it came immediately after his aforementioned breakthrough victory in Denmark and, to his credit, he sat in 6th place heading into the final day before he finally ran out of steam both mentally and physically. That all bodes well, as do his raw statistics which read 14th for Driving Distance and 28th for par-5 scoring, both of which are strong assets for tackling the Albatross. Result: MC

There’s an exception to every rule and in the context of this event being played on a track that seemingly favours longer hitters, Paul Peterson’s victory over hot favourite Thomas Pieters in 2016 is another prime example of logic being turned on its head. The American’s maiden European Tour success came courtesy of an outstanding tee-to-green performance – ranking 3rd for Driving Accuracy and 1st for GIR on the week – which negated his lack of punch from off the tee. Cut from a very similar cloth in that respect is Aaron Rai who sits 11th for Driving Accuracy and 8th for GIR for the season to date, despite having failed to make the top-10 at all this calendar year.

Perhaps that last statement is a little unfair given that he’s a winner in this wraparound season having secured his maiden victory in Hong Kong at the end of November after hinting a fortnight before that he was finding his game when finishing 8th at the altitude of Sun City, again courtesy of an accurate week from tee-to-green on a lengthy track. A couple of top-20s in low-key affairs in Australia and Denmark doesn’t overly excite, however his last outing in Memphis at WGC level gave us a timely reminder that he’s much better than his recent results suggest. 12th at the FedEx St Jude was fuelled once again by an accurate driver (3rd for Driving Accuracy) and accurate irons (2nd for GIR) as he overcame a slow start to scythe his way through an elite field with a 66/67 weekend.

Course form of MC/24 doesn’t stick out as much as others here, however given what we’ve seen from the previous attempts of winners here that may not be an issue, and it’s worth considering that he sat in 7th spot here 12 months ago heading into the weekend courtesy of opening rounds of 67/68. Another top-10 in Prague earlier in his career on the Challenge Tour adds further encouragement and if there’s one player who could compete with the bombers here by playing a very different style of game, it could well be the Wolverhampton man. Result: T39

It’s been a rapid rise to the European Tour for Spain’s Adri Arnaus and he’s one of the current crop of talented young players who would surprise nobody if they were to capture a maiden title at this level sooner rather than later. Wins at the Alps Tour Grand Final in 2017 and the Challenge Tour Grand Final in 2018 show a solid line of progression and he’s heavily hinted in his rookie European Tour season that he’s more than capable of taking a title at this level too. 14th at the Qatar Masters was followed by a runner-up finish at the Kenya Open in a stretch that saw enough control from tee-to-green for him to rank 1st and 10th for Total Driving and 1st and 2nd for Ball-Striking respectively.

It’s clear that the long-hitting 24 year-old isn’t the finished article just yet – 6 missed cuts from his next 8 starts got European Tour observers wondering if his early-season form had simply been a flash in the pan, before he bounced back to prominence with another 2nd place finish, this time at Valderrama, as well as 15th at the Irish Open. Both efforts were fuelled by another pair of impressive tee-to-green performances for a man of his length from off the tee, ranking as he does in 20th place for Driving Distance for the season. He missed the cut at The Open, however this is far more comfortable terrain for Adri and with his long game seemingly in a good place, he should be able to score heavily on the par-5s this week which will be critical to success. Result: 2nd

Having had some success here in the recent past when I backed 66/1 winner Haydn Porteous in 2017, it’s always interesting to revisit the thought process and logic of that selection to see if there are any parallels. The South African sat 7th in the Driving Distance ranks at the time which suggested that he should, in theory, have the power to take advantage of the scoring holes around the Albatross Course, yet his course form wasn’t inspiring which had kept a lid on his price despite some eye-catching recent form. He’d also been striking the ball impressively in the weeks leading up to the tournament, ranking in the top-8 for both Total Driving and Ball-Striking in his 2 latest strokeplay events. Already a European Tour winner, his sole success had come on home soil the year before at the Joburg Open.

Of course a different blueprint would be constructed if you picked any of the other 4 winners of this event, however there are enough similarities between Porteous and Brandon Stone to give the latter a chance this week at a backable price. At 309 yards Driving Distance average, the South African sits 11th in long hitters’ rankings for the season-to-date which will give him plenty of chances to score on the par-5s here. A 75th place finish here on his only start back in 2014 hardly stands out, however as we’ve seen from the winners here so far that’s seemingly not an issue, and it’s worth remembering that he’d barely been a professional golfer for a year and was plying his trade predominantly on the Challenge Tour at the time. Now a 3-time European Tour winner – 2 of which have come in his homeland – his incredible final round of 60 to win the Scottish Open last year puts him head and shoulders above many in this week’s field.

What really excites though is what we find when we scratch beneath the surface of what’s been an awful year to date. A best finish of 31st at the Oman Open way back in March and 8 cuts missed from 13 starts masks the fact that his long game has taken a significant step forward in the last month or so. 34th place finishes at both the Irish Open and Scottish Open each featured field-leading Total Driving performances and he ranked 2nd and 1st respectively for Ball Striking on those weeks. A missed cut at The Open on his last start isn’t anything to worry about and I’m happy to take a chance on Brandon here at the price on offer. Result: MC