With two players inside the top 10 heading into the weekend last week in Northern Ireland, to see them both fold on Saturday with 5-over rounds was disappointing to say the least. Congratulations to Ewen Ferguson backers and also to Steve Bamford who picked up a 28/1 winner with his headline selection Will Zalatoris at the St Jude Championship over on the PGA Tour.
The D+D Real Czech Masters is our task this week as the DP World Tour returns to the Albatross Course on the outskirts of Prague. Through a combination of invites and national spots, the Tour have just about managed to scrape together a field of 132 here this week, with the FedEx Cup Playoffs continuing over the in the US and taking centre stage.
Thomas Pieters heads the market this week at a miserly 7/1 at the time of writing, although two wins here at Albatross from six starts is more than enough explanation when coupled with the fact that he’s the highest-ranked player in the field. Victor Perez, Eddie Pepperell and Ian Poulter add a little more quality to the field compared to recent weeks, although all three are relatively short in the betting as you would expect.
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Course Overview. The course, which is located on the South-Western outskirts of Prague at slight altitude, is a 7,468 yard, par 72 with exposed fairways and large bentgrass greens designed to cater for the tourist trade first and foremost, with 4 or 5 teeing areas on each hole.
Fairways are fairly generous and the main challenges with the driver are carefully placed bunkers. The bunkering has been reworked in the past couple of years with the objective to ‘improve visibility, interest and character’. Visually the bunkering looks more prominent and in some places bunkers have been removed completely.
The first and 12th are par-5s that present scoring opportunities to the bombers who can get their drives away; back-to-back par-5s around the turn are perhaps a little too long at over 600 yards each, however the par-4 6th can be played from the forward tee which brings the front edge of the green into play with the driver and the hole played the 5th easiest to par last year, behind the 4 par-5s.
Other holes on the course demand a little respect and this is a layout where a variety of playing styles may well feature at the top of Sunday’s leaderboard, with water in play on 7 holes and more substantially towards the end of the 18.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s D+D Real Czech Masters that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2021: Johannes Veerman, 25/1; 2019: Thomas Pieters, 20/1; 2018: Andrea Pavan, 50/1; 2017: Haydn Porteous, 66/1; 2016: Paul Peterson, 250/1; 2015: Thomas Pieters, 80/1; 2014: Jamie Donaldson, 12/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Prague is here.
Recent hot and settled weather in the Czech Republic looks set to break down just in time for the tournament with thunderstorms possible from Thursday afternoon onwards and more extensively on Friday & Saturday. Temperatures will drop from the mid-80s Fahrenheit to the low 70s at best with a 10-15mph breeze, picking up more substantially around any storm systems.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the 7 winners here since 2014 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2021: Johannes Veerman (-15). 308 yards (17th), 62.5% fairways (29th), 73.6% greens in regulation (22nd), 73.7% scrambling (10th), 1.71 putts per GIR (9th).
2019: Thomas Pieters (-19). 318 yards (1st), 58.9% fairways (54th), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 75% scrambling (18th), 1.70 putts per GIR (15th).
2018: Andrea Pavan (-22). 297 yards (41st), 64.3% fairways (34th), 80.6% greens in regulation (6th), 42.9% scrambling (36th), 1.52 putts per GIR (1st).
2017: Haydn Porteous (-13). 304 yards (9th), 66.1% fairways (25th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 30.8% scrambling (51st), 1.68 putts per GIR (2nd).
2016: Paul Peterson (-15). 287 yards (40th), 82.1% fairways (3rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 58.3% scrambling (25th), 1.67 putts per GIR (2nd).
2015: Thomas Pieters (-20). 321 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (27th), 75.0% greens in regulation (22nd), 72.2% scrambling (10th), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st).
2014: Jamie Donaldson (-14). 291 yards (24th), 64.3% fairways (34th), 80.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 42.9% scrambling (65th), 1.65 putts per GIR (4th).
An exposed track with fairly wide fairways and large greens doesn’t give away many clues with even the more wayward players hitting reasonable numbers on both counts, however to score here a tidy long game which maximises GIR is probably key.
Despite not being the longest of players from off the tee, only one player bettered Paul Peterson’s 8-under total on the par 5s here in 2016 and he made a total of 21 birdies and just 6 bogeys on the week overall. Similarly Thomas Pieters and Jamie Donaldson both excelled on the par 5s when they won – both led the field in that respect in their winning efforts – and attacking the birdie holes whilst defending on the trickier par 4s and the tougher par 3s looks the best method to getting into contention around these parts.
2017 was a bit trickier with cooler temperatures which led to Haydn Porteous winning with a 6-under total on the par-5s and a total of 21 birdies and an eagle, offset by 8 bogeys and a double for his -13 overall total. More scoreable conditions in 2018 restored order with Andrea Pavan’s 11-under for the par-5s beaten by just one player on the week.
Thomas Pieters’ second win here in 2019 saw him card an 8-under total on the par-5s, and on average everyone who finished in the top-5 plus ties played the long holes in a little better than 9-under par. After a break for Covid, last year’s winner Johannes Veerman was also one of the better performers on the par 5s at 9-under on the week, and with the potential for wet weather during the event which would make the course play longer than the card suggests, mastering those long holes may be critical again this year.
SG Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the two years’ worth of data we have points to long game excellence with players finishing just behind our eventual 2 winners also exhibiting similarly strong SG Off the Tee, SG Approach and SG Tee to Greens stats in the main:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form. Jamie Donaldson arrived at the Albatross Golf Resort 8 years ago with 4-event form of MC/MC/37/24, albeit the final 3 events were Major/WGC/Major; Thomas Pieters was similarly non-descript with incoming form of MC/60/33/35 before winning here and then again on his next start in Holland a fortnight later.
250/1 shock winner Paul Peterson was playing on the Asian Tour predominantly alongside the occasional co-sanctioned event and although he’d recorded a 3rd place finish the previous month at the Queen’s Cup, his efforts when competing at this level were far from encouraging.
Of the other winners, the two victors in 2017 and 2018 had more tangible form: Haydn Porteous had finished 11th at Sun City on the Sunshine Tour and 6th in Denmark the week before, however with Total Driving ranks of 8th and 4th from those two outings, it was fairly clear that his long game was pretty sharp. Similarly Andrea Pavan had finished 14th in Scotland then 6th the week before in Sweden before securing his first European Tour title, pounding greens in regulation both times.
Thomas Pieters arrived here in 2019 with fairly mediocre form for a player who was best priced at 20/1. 20th at the Scottish Open on his penultimate start had been his best finish since March of that year, and 9th for SG Off the Tee and 15th for SG Tee to Green was a positive sign ahead of a return to a track he clearly enjoys.
Last year’s winner Johannes Veerman hadn’t played since The Open 5 weeks before, finishing in a tie for 46th, flashing a little bit of form with a 2nd round 68 in elite company. 3rd at the Irish Open and 8th at the Scottish Open prior to that ensured that the bookies had his card marked though, eventually returning 25/1 to his backers:
2021: Johannes Veerman: MC/45/70/MC/58/MC/MC/3/8/46
2019: Thomas Pieters: MC/41/23/23/33/MC/MC/MC/20/67
Course Form. Thomas Pieters broke a string of results where eventual winners had very little positive course form to speak of when he won here at Albatross for the second time in 2019. Johannes Veerman restored the trend last year though:
2022: Johannes Veerman: MC
2019: Thomas Pieters: MC/1/2/66/9
2018: Andrea Pavan: 39/MC
2017: Haydn Porteous: 60/MC
2016: Paul Peterson: MC
2015: Thomas Pieters: MC
2014: Jamie Donaldson: Debut
With 4 attackable par-5s and a potentially driveable par-4, this course sets up well for powerful players, however Paul Peterson proved in 2016 that there’s more than one way to navigate successfully around the Albatross.
My selections are as follows:
Richard Mansell 2pts EW 28/1 (5EW, 1/4) with William Hill
Watching Ewen Ferguson win last week was a timely reminder that scrubbing a player off the list purely due to price is a dangerous game in a world where winners can be frustratingly elusive. Having backed the Scot at Hillside at 80/1 where he missed the cut (naturally), the form that he subsequently showed at the Hero Open (30th, shot 61 in round 2) and Cazoo Open (12th) proved at least that there was some method to my madness, yet quotes of 20/1 or thereabouts were too much for me to stomach last week, despite his trending form and low grade. More fool me.
In a roundabout kind of way, this is me justifying my taking of the 25/1 on Richard Mansell to secure his maiden DP World Tour title this week. The addition of dual course winner Thomas Pieters to the field has at least meant that last week’s 4th place finish isn’t penalised too much as he was a similar price last week, and I’ll support the Englishman here having chastised myself sufficiently over last week’s omission.
8th at the British Masters, 9th at the Dutch Open and 3rd at the European Open were all positive outings for the Englishman before he went off the boil as US Open and Open Championship starts consumed his focus, however 20th at the Cazoo Open ahead of last week’s effort suggests that his form is peaking once again, and save for a lacklustre opening round of 71 last week he could have given Ferguson more of a scare than he did on Sunday before eventually succumbing.
Style-wise, there’s lots to like about the 27 year-old’s game and how it fits to Albatross. 14th for Driving Distance, 33rd for Par-5 Scoring and perhaps most tellingly 2nd for SG Off the Tee for the DP World Tour season to date, Richard has the raw credentials to contend here in my view while he’s playing well. 39th here last year came off the back of a missed cut on his previous start at Galgorm Castle 3 weeks prior and in a season where his best finish was 12th in Tenerife; 12 months on he’s in far better nick and primed for a breakthrough victory in my view. RESULT: T23
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Hennie du Plessis 2pts EW 25/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Backing returning LIV players is always going to split opinion and I’m not going to get into the politics of it all, however that one factor aside, Hennie du Plessis fits the bill almost to perfection this week.
I say almost as he’s making his debut here at Albatross, however this course is straight in front of players and, Thomas Pieters excluded, course form hasn’t been a factor for eventual winners here since we first saw this track back in 2014.
A long layout playing at a slight altitude is something that most South African golfers will be comfortable with, and in du Plessis we have a player returning from a 2nd place finish last week in Gauteng in his homeland, which is played at a little more altitude than this, but altitude all the same. With the likes of George Coetzee and Daniel van Tonder behind him last week, the standard of competition was reasonable too.
In terms of ticking boxes, the 25 year-old sits 6th on Tour for Driving Distance which will help here, particularly if the forecast rain does materialise; 10th for SG Off the Tee and 5th for SG Tee to Green also encourages here at Albatross. 1st for Par 5 Scoring completes the statistical argument from my perspective and the South African should take to this week’s task like a duck to water.
Most of Hennie’s aforementioned stats were accrued from a strong early spring on the DP World Tour, with 6th on home soil at the MyGolfLife Open, 3rd at the ISPS Championship in Spain and 6th at the Catalunya Championship the highlights, and he’ll be disappointed not to have converted at least one of those first two efforts into a maiden title at this level.
2nd at the first of his 3 LIV starts behind Charl Schwartzel can’t be disregarded, and 2 Sunshine Tour victories plus a further success at the 2018 Gary Player pro-am suggests he’s quite capable of getting over the line. RESULT: T57
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Wilco Nienaber 1.5pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Keeping with the long-hitting South African theme, Wilco Nienaber also appeals this week. At a little over 327 yards average, the 22 year-old leads the DP World Tour for Driving Distance and the length that he generates from his wiry frame just has to be seen to be believed.
Going back to Ewen Ferguson (for the last time, I promise), a 2nd round 61 at the Hero Open was a pretty good indicator that he was playing some very competitive golf and only Nienaber himself matched that effort over the 4 days at Fairmont St Andrews. With the Scot romping home last week, that’s got to be considered fairly good form.
7th overall in Scotland was actually the Bloemfontein man’s best finish of 2022, however 12th at the Qatar Masters and 10th at the Steyn City Championship are both solid efforts and for me it’s only a matter of time before it all clicks one week and he takes the next step towards fulfilling his substantial potential.
23rd last week saw Wilco open with a 66 to sit in 5th place after 18 holes, before treading water for the rest of week after following up with a 72; although stats were patchy with the 2-course rotation, it would appear that he played well enough from off the tee and from tee-to-green to warrant support here this week. 15th for Par-5 Scoring for the season is also a positive given the numbers I ran through in the preamble.
51st here on the outskirts of Prague on his only Albatross start is neither impressive nor out of line with previous winners of this event, Thomas Pieters excluded. He did, however, sit 14th heading into the weekend that week, having missed the cut on each of the previous two outings at Challenge Tour level, which is enough to convince me that he’ll enjoy his return here this week. RESULT: T8
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Gavin Green 1pt EW 80/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Paddy Power
Another big chance came and went last week in Singapore for Gavin Green to add a first title since his Taiwan Masters win on the Asian Tour back in 2017, which is getting on now for 5 years ago.
A pair of 65s put the Malaysian in pole position at the halfway point with some recognisable names a long way adrift of him, however weekend rounds of 72/71 opened the door and he ultimately had to settle for 2nd place and another missed opportunity. 3 Asian Development Tour victories preceded that 2017 effort in Taiwan, so he’s clearly had the winning bug in the past, yet it’s simply not happened for the 28 year-old in the meantime.
Perhaps though an amenable track that encourages aggressive driving will give him another opportunity this week – certainly when he’s playing well and hitting the ball relatively straight, his prowess from off the tee is a major asset; with the prospect of Albatross playing long this week if the wet weather does arrive, he could be in his element. 3rd here on debut suggests that the course suits regardless, and he led after the first round on his next visit too before drifting as the week progressed.
What’s been noticeable of late is that each aspect of Green’s game has been firing on occasion without him quite putting it all together. 26th at the Cazoo Classic 3 weeks ago saw him rank 2nd for GIR and 2nd for SG Approach; 56th the following week at the Hero Open saw a much improved SG performance from Off the Tee (15th) and he was 5th for Scrambling, yet his approach play and putting let him down. Last week he led the field for Scrambling in Singapore and the putter was hot, ranking 4th for Putts per GIR in lieu of any Strokes Gained data. The component pieces are all there, they just need to all come together over 4 consecutive days and he could be back in business. RESULT: 2nd
Finally I’ll take a chance on Borja Virto’s effort last week being more than just a random blip seeing as he’s available at a tasty 3-figure price.
The Spaniard has won twice on the Alps Tour, both in 2014, and twice again the following year on the Challenge Tour, yet he’s singularly failed to push on from those efforts at the top level, until that is he finished 2nd to Ewen Ferguson last week in Northern Ireland. Each of those 4 wins came between June and October which may give us a clue that the middle part of the year is better for him for whatever reason; however, if nothing else the fact that both times he won twice in relatively quick succession suggests he’s a capable yet inconsistent sort, so maybe he can build on last week while his game’s in good shape.
To put into context how much of an outlier last week’s performance was, he’d missed the cut on each of 6 previous attempts at DP World Tour level back to July 2020, and prior to that his career-best was a tie for 24th at the 2016 Lyoness Open. That’s form at the upper level though and there were enough hints of late that he was playing well having recorded 4 top-8 finishes in his previous 7 starts on the Challenge Tour.
From what I’ve just described, it won’t surprise you to hear that he’s played twice here at Albatross and missed the cut fairly comprehensively both times. Perhaps though he’s found something in his game of late that will render that course history as immaterial and we’ll see him in the mix again this week. To that end, I’m happy to pay to find out the answer. RESULT: T57
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D+D Real Czech Masters – Featured Bookmaker
