Paul Williams

Paul Williams' DP World Tour Championship Tips 2025

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After 11 months of battle stretching all the way back to the Australian PGA Championship last November, we finally arrive at the DP World Tour’s finale in Dubai.

Rory McIlroy’s flying final round in Abu Dhabi saw him extend his lead at the top of the Race to Dubai to nigh-on 800 points over Marco Penge and more than 1,700 points over Tyrrell Hatton in third place, so with 2,000 points to the winner here this week it would need something special from Penge or an extremely poor week from The Masters Champion combined with a victory for Hatton to prevent him from securing the Harry Vardon Trophy on Sunday once again. In all likelihood it will be a damp squib in that respect, however there’s plenty more to fight for with a $10 prize fund, Race to Dubai bonus pool, and the 10 PGA Tour cards to be concluded.

As per the last few years, the top 50 available players from the season-long rankings are in attendance -at the time of writing the only omission is Viktor Hovland – plus we have Ryder Cuppers Ludvig Aberg and Shane Lowry who take the entry up to 52.

Rory McIlroy leads the betting this week at around the 4/1 mark, give or take, with Tommy Fleetwood also rated as a single figure chances a point or two behind. In a field largely the same in composition at the top end of the market to last week, odds don’t differ massively to Abu Dhabi with the exception of Justin Rose who’s flown in for this and rates as a 33/1 shot in places.

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Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, UAE. Designer: Greg Norman, 2009; Par: 72; Length: 7,706 yards; Fairways: Bermuda; Rough: Bermuda/Rye; Greens: TifEagle Bermuda; Stimp: 12’6″.

Course Overview. As ever, the venue for the DP World Tour Championship is the Greg Norman-designed Earth Course.

The track is a monster at an extended 7,706 yards with 2 of the par-5s measuring over 620 yards, the tough par-4 9th which is 3 feet short of 500 yards, plus the 195 yard par-3 17th which plays to an island green. Greens are large, undulating Bermudagrass which measure 12’6″ on the stimp when dry and firm and, as always, aren’t to every player’s liking.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s DP World Tour Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats | SG Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2024: Rory McIlroy, 5/1; 2023: Nicolai Hojgaard, 22/1; 2022: Jon Rahm, 5/1; 2021: Collin Morikawa, 15/2; 2020: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 16/1; 2019: Jon Rahm, 7/1; 2018: Danny Willett, 80/1; 2017: Jon Rahm, 12/1; 2016: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 66/1; 2015: Rory McIlroy, 5/1; 2014: Henrik Stenson, 17/2; 2013: Henrik Stenson, 11/1; 2012: Rory McIlroy, 6/1; 2011: Alvaro Quiros, 40/1; 2010: Robert Karlsson, 50/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Dubai is here.

For the 4 days of tournament play we should see dry and sunny conditions with temperatures peaking in the high-80s Fahrenheit, accompanied by light to moderate winds reaching 10-15mph in the afternoons.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of recent winners gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited here:

  • 2024, Rory McIlroy (-15). 340 yards (1st), 60.7% fairways (31st), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (3rd)
  • 2023, Nicolai Hojgaard (-21). 313 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (25th), 75.0% greens in regulation (28th), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 2022, Jon Rahm (-20). 307 yards (13th), 42.9% fairways (46th), 77.8% greens in regulation (8th), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa (-17). 302 yards (10th), 64.3% fairways (5th), 79.2% greens in regulation (7th), 1.72 putts per GIR (15th)
  • 2020, Matthew Fitzpatrick (-15). 300 yards (16th), 76.8% fairways (1st), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 1.70 putts per GIR (5th)
  • 2019, Jon Rahm (-19). 315 yards (8th), 67.9% fairways (8th), 87.5% greens in regulation (1st), 1.65 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2018, Danny Willett (-18). 302 yards (16th), 71.4% fairways (12th), 81.9% greens in regulation (3rd), 1.64 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2017, Jon Rahm (-19). 313 yards (4th), 66.1% fairways (22nd), 77.8% greens in regulation (26th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd)
  • 2016, Matthew Fitzpatrick (-17). 298 yards (16th), 80.4% fairways (4th), 77.8% greens in regulation (21st), 1.65 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 2015, Rory McIlroy (-21). 322 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (37th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (4th)
  • 2014, Henrik Stenson (-16). 310 yards (2nd), 82.1% fairways (2nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.75 putts per GIR (16th)
  • 2013, Henrik Stenson (-25). 300 yards (7th), 89.3% fairways (1st), 94.4% greens in regulation (1st), 1.71 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 2012, Rory McIlroy (-23). 301 yards (2nd), 73.2% fairways (22nd), 69.4% greens in regulation (47th), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2011, Alvaro Quiros (-19). 311 yards (1st), 53.6% fairways (55th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
  • 2010, Robert Karlsson (-14). 298 yards (5th), 76.8% fairways (20th), 77.8% greens in regulation (12th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2009, Lee Westwood (-23). 298 yards (8th), 85.7% fairways (7th), 91.7% greens in regulation (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (5th)

Up until Matt Fitzpatrick’s win in 2016 you could have argued with some conviction that length off the tee was pretty much a pre-requisite here at the Earth Course. From Lee Westwood in 2009 through to Rory McIlroy in 2015, each winner had ranked inside the top-8 for Driving Distance on the week, and on 4 occasions the winner was in the top-2 for distance off the tee.

Now Fitzpatrick isn’t long by any stretch, however he has shown an ability to perform on longer tracks (a win at the Nordea Masters and 7th at Augusta spring to mind) and perhaps that’s actually the key factor in not being intimidated by the length here. More average length drivers can perform well, however shorter players need to make up for that handicap with an excellent performance from tee-to-green.

The most consistent statistic from the winners detailed above, aside from tee-to-green performance, has been putting on these Bermudagrass greens. Henrik Stenson’s win in 2014 saw him rank 16th in the field for putting average, which is the worst on show – indeed both Jon Rahm and Danny Willett topped that stat when proving victorious in 2018 and 2019, Nicolai Hojgaard was 2nd for Putts per GIR on his way to victory here in 2023 and Rory was 3rd on that count 12 months ago.

Looking a little deeper at the past 10 winners here and we see that birdie-making and bogey avoidance is also pretty important:

  • Rory McIlroy (2024): par 3 scoring-1; par 4: -5; par 5: -9; 23 Birdies, 8 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Nicolai Hojgaard (2023): par 3 scoring-4; par 4: -8; par 5: -9; 2 Eagles, 24 Birdies, 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Jon Rahm (2022): par 3 scoring-3; par 4: -7; par 5: -10; 1 Eagle, 22 Birdies, 4 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Collin Morikawa (2021): par 3 scoring level; par 4: -7; par 5: -10; 21 Birdies, 4 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (2020): par 3 scoring level; par 4: -7; par 5: -8; 22 Birdies, 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Jon Rahm (2019): par 3 scoring -2; par 4: -4; par 5: -13; 1 Eagle, 25 Birdies, 6 Bogeys and a Double over the course of the 4 days.
  • Danny Willett (2018): par 3 scoring -2; par 4: -4; par 5: -12; 1 Eagle, 23 Birdies and 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Jon Rahm (2017): par 3 scoring +1; par 4: -12; par 5: -8; 25 Birdies and 6 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (2016): par 3 scoring: -1; par 4: -4; par 5: -12; 1 Eagle, 21 Birdies, 4 Bogeys and 1 Double over the course of the 4 days.
  • Rory McIlroy (2015): par 3 scoring:-2; par 4: -10; par 5: -9; 26 Birdies and 5 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Henrik Stenson (2014): par 3 scoring:-4; par 4: -4; par 5: -8; 23 Birdies, 5 Bogeys and 1 Double over the course of the 4 days.
  • Henrik Stenson (2013): par 3 scoring:-1; par 4: -14; par 5: -10; 1 Eagle, 25 Birdies and 2 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
  • Rory McIlroy (2012): par 3 scoring: level; par 4: -12; par 5: -11; 1 Eagle, 26 Birdies and 5 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.

Generally the winner will have an excellent week on the par-4s whilst making birdie or better on around 50-60% of the par-5s during the course of the week.

Strokes Gained: 2019 was the first time that we got a view of Strokes Gained performance here at the Earth Course, and in truth it didn’t tell us much more than we might have inferred from observing the previous renewals here over the years.

Looking at the six renewals overall, SG Tee to Green is most consistent factors between the winners:

  • 2024, Rory McIlroy: T: 2nd; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 37th; P: 11th
  • 2023, Nicolai Hojgaard: T: 7th; A: 4th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 25th; P: 6th
  • 2022, Jon Rahm: T: 25th; A: 2nd; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 2nd; P: 2nd
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa. T: 8th; A: 10th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 6th; P: 14th
  • 2020, Matthew Fitzpatrick. T: 8th; A: 33rd; T2G: 8th; ATG: 7th; P: 1st
  • 2019, Jon Rahm. T: 4th; A: 4th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 4th; P: 9th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: In terms of incoming form, the winners here had all produced some decent results in the recent past before lifting the trophy, with each having registered at least one top-7 finish in their previous 6 starts.

Rory McIlroy’s third DP World Tour Championship title last year came off the back of a 3rd place finish the week before in Abu Dhabi and kick-started a run of results which saw him victorious at Pebble Beach and TPC Sawgrass before completing the career grand slam at Augusta in April.

Nicolai Hojgaard’s form had been trending before winning this 2 years ago, with finishes of 56th and 31st on the PGA Tour improving to 2nd at the Nedbank the week before his success here at the Earth Course. 10th in Abu Dhabi earlier in the season in another classy field had reinforced his liking for desert golf, having previously won in Ras al Khaimah the year before.

Jon Rahm bagged his third DP World Tour Championship title from 4 attempts here last in 2022 off the back of some very clear form, finishing 2nd at Wentworth before romping to victory at the Spanish Open. 4th at the CJ Cup on his last start ensured he was a short price for this and he duly obliged at 5/1.

2021’s Champion Golfer of the Year Collin Morikawa hadn’t won since his Open Championship triumph at Royal St George’s in July, however with 2nd to Rory McIlroy at the CJ Cup and 7th at the ZOZO Championship on the PGA Tour over his previous two starts, there was plenty of evidence that he was in decent nick.

Matt Fitzpatrick’s win in 2020 came after a fortnight’s break following a missed cut at the PGA Tour’s RSM Classic. 46th at The Masters the week before is nothing of note, however prior to that he’d sat 7th heading into Sunday at the Zozo Championship, 7th to halfway at the CJ Cup and held the lead after 36 holes at Wentworth, so was clearly playing some solid golf.

Jon Rahm hadn’t played for 7 weeks before he won here in 2019, with his previous start at the Spanish Open also producing silverware. 4th in the world when arriving here, the Spaniard had also won the Irish Open earlier that year on the European Tour and had finished 2nd to Danny Willett at Wentworth a couple of weeks before his homeland win.

Danny Willett’s season was solid if unspectacular before winning 2 years ago, however with his 3 top-10s all coming in good events in Italy, Ireland and Turkey, he was seemingly saving his best for the bigger weeks on Tour.

Before that, Rahm had won twice in the season already and had produced 4 top-7 finishes in the FedEx Cup PlayOffs before 3 less convincing efforts prior to his win. Fitzpatrick had finished 7th at Augusta before winning the Nordea Masters earlier in 2016, plus he’d produced a couple of top-10 finishes in his previous 8 starts. Rory had won the Dubai Desert Classic earlier in 2015 as well as the WGC Match Play and Wells Fargo Championship, plus had some decent incoming form.

In fact all of the winners had some positive form either recently and/or from the Middle East earlier that year to encourage punters:

  • Rory McIlroy: 15/2/4/MC/5/68/11/12/2/2/25/3
  • Nicolai Hojgaard: 21/MC/6/23/MC/14/3/5/64/56/31/2
  • Jon Rahm: 1/48/10/12/55/34/5/8/16/2/1/4
  • Collin Morikawa: 14/2/4/71/1/4/26/MC/63/28/2/7
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick: 3/6/MC/MC/6/MC/42/7/12/26/46/MC
  • Jon Rahm: MC/3/2/1/11/7/3/5/13/2/MC/1
  • Danny Willett: 19/24/MC/18/MC/59/44/MC/MC/23/7/50
  • Jon Rahm: 10/1/44/28/58/3/4/5/7/15/MC/36
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick: MC/MC/49/6/5/MC/7/16/MC/49/16/20
  • Rory McIlroy: 8/1/MC/MC/9/17/29/4/16/26/6/11
  • Henrik Stenson: 5/4/2/39/19/3/38/26/23/2/24/3
  • Henrik Stenson: 10/3/2/2/3/43/1/33/1/34/31/7
  • Rory McIlroy: MC/10/60/5/1/24/1/1/10/2/3/MC
  • Alvaro Quiros: MC/MC/53/MC/68/37/16/MC/49/7
  • Robert Karlsson: WD/14/7/65/16/MC/42/29/2/34/MC/4
  • Lee Westwood: 2/8/3/9/3/23/8/9/1/9/8/54

Course Form: Apart from the early renewals and Jon Rahm’s debut success in 2017, winners here generally had some decent course form prior to victory and each of the past 6 winners had recorded a top-10 finish here in the past:

  • Rory McIlroy: 3/5/11/1/5/2/1/9/20/4/6/4/22
  • Nicolai Hojgaard: 4
  • Jon Rahm: 1/4/1
  • Collin Morikawa: 10
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick: 4/1/12/34/9
  • Jon Rahm: 1/4
  • Danny Willett: 26/21/4/50
  • Jon Rahm: Debut
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick: 4
  • Rory McIlroy: 3/5/11/1/5/2
  • Henrik Stenson: 23/24/7/1
  • Henrik Stenson: 23/24/7
  • Rory McIlroy: 3/5/11
  • Alvaro Quiros: 42/3
  • Robert Karlsson: Debut
  • Lee Westwood: Debut

Following Matt Fitpatrick’s win here in 2020, we’ve also seen 4 repeat winners with Henrik Stenson also winning the title twice, whilst Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy have now both triumphed on three occasions.

The 15 renewals haven’t produced any complete shocks with Westwood (16/1), Karlsson (50/1), Quiros (40/1), McIlroy (6/1), Stenson (11/1 & 17/2), McIlroy again (5/1), Fitzpatrick (66/1), Rahm (12/1), Willett (80/1), Rahm (7/1), Fitzpatrick (16/1), Morikawa (15/2), Rahm (5/1), Hojgaard (22/1) and McIlroy (6/1) all backable for various and sometimes very obvious reasons.

Fitzpatrick (2016) and Rahm on debut (2017) were probably the most difficult to find as each of the other winners here in the event’s history have an excellent record in the Middle East swing and each of those, except Westwood, had won either in Qatar, Dubai or both over the course of their respective careers.

Fitzpatrick did however back up his success here with a top-5 finish at the Dubai Desert Classic the following year, plus Rahm won the CareerBuilder Challenge in the desert before winning this title again twice since, so perhaps it’s more of a case that the pair hadn’t really had chance to show their hands fully before they won here. Of course, Fitzpatrick winning this title again in 2020 demonstrates how comfortable he feels in these surroundings.

The rough has been toughened a little over the years which swings the pendulum a little more towards total driving and quality ball-striking than putting in my opinion, although top-quality putters may well still find a way to get into contention this week. Those players who can find fairways (and the further down the better), find greens and produce an impressive enough performance on the Bermuda greens are most likely to succeed in my view.

My Final DP World Tour Championship Tips Are As Follows:

Rory McIlroy 8pts Enhanced Win Only 9/2 with bet365

In golf betting we’re constantly trying to dig out some value and find that player who might just perform better than his odds suggest. That’s all well and good at a run-of-the-mill tournament where talented players from large fields can find a special week and usurp the market leaders, however the DP World Tour Championship is one of those events where enthusiasm has to be tempered a little and respect must be paid to the most likely winner, Rory McIlroy.

Let’s face facts: four of the past six winners of this have been single figure chances and well-fancied in the market. Jon Rahm (7/1, 2019 and 5/1, 2022), Collin Morikawa (15/2, 2021) and Rory himself (5/1, 2024) were the short priced men in question, and with neither Rahm nor Morikawa in attendance that makes my decision to support Rory all the easier.

Tommy Fleetwood’s form this autumn has been sensational and he’s a deserved 2nd favourite to McIlroy, however a pair of runner-up finishes here isn’t a patch on Rory’s three victories and the World No.2 deserves to be a little further clear at the top of the betting in my view. Tyrrell Hatton likewise has a two 2nd place finishes at the Earth Course, plus has a superb Rolex Series record overall, however a closing 75 last week was a full 13 shots worse than McIlroy’s final day effort and hardly instils confidence.

Marco Penge is close enough in the Race to Dubai rankings to necessitate some focus from the favourite, particularly if he gets off to a good start, however this is the Englishman’s Earth Course debut and he’s up against a man who simply adores playing golf in the Middle East and on this course in particular.

Much has been discussed about the Northern Irishman’s motivation following his Masters win earlier this year which completed his career Grand Slam. It took a while for him to readjust but he’s done just that, winning the Irish Open in front of an adoring crowd before ticking another objective off his list by being part of a victorious Ryder Cup team on American soil. Should he win this week that will also secure his seventh Race to Dubai title, leaving him tantalisingly close to Monty’s eight Order or Merits with the 36 year-old still at the peak of his powers.

Finishes of 26th in India then 3rd last week since Bethpage have seen Rory rank 6th and 2nd for SG Off the Tee to suggest that his key weapon for tackling the Earth Course is in great shape, and he backed that up with 3rd for SG Tee to Green last week in Abu Dhabi as he prepared beautifully for this week’s task at hand. A flawless 10-under 62 to close last week saw him miss just two greens on the final day, coupled with 26 putts on the day. In that kind of mood it would take something incredible to stop him here this week should he perform at a similar level.

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Nicolai Hojgaard 2pts EW 25/1 (6EW, 1/5) with BetMGM

I’m afraid this won’t be an expansive staking plan littered with longshots; the short field and wealth of talent at the top of the betting may well mean that any each-way value in the paying places will be very scarce indeed. To that end, the only other player who I feel comfortable backing this week is Nicolai Hojgaard who could be Rory’s closest challenger come Sunday afternoon.

The Earth Course has increasingly become a specialised test where repeat winners are the norm, and a repeat of Nicolai’s 2023 victory here may be the most likely answer should McIlroy fail to justify his favouritism this week. Since we started coming here in 2009, Henrik Stenson and Matt Fitzpatrick have both won here twice, whilst Jon Rahm and Rory have been triumphant three times apiece, so seeing Hojgaard add his name to that list of multiple winners wouldn’t be the biggest of shocks.

The 24 year-old had to take a back seat this time at the Ryder Cup as his twin Rasmus took his place at Bethpage Black, however I’m sure that we’ll see both of them competing together in years to come and potentially as soon as 2027. Perhaps Nicolai has something to prove as the 2025 season comes to an end – certainly he has no pressure on his shoulders with his PGA Tour card long since sewn up, however to take on and beat (most of) Europe’s best here this week would undoubtedly be yet another feather in his cap.

At three DP World Tour wins to his brother’s five I suspect there’s an element of motivation for him to get closer with a win here, plus at 70th in the OWGR a big week here could set him up nicely when it comes to qualifying for the biggest events of 2026. Two of those three wins have come in the Middle East with his 2022 Ras al Khaimah Championship victory preceding his win here the following year, and this long, desert track plays to his strengths beautifully.

14th at the PGA Tour’s Baycurrent Classic halted a run of three consecutive missed cuts, however it was effort last week in Abu Dhabi which ultimately gets him the nod. 3rd place overall could have been very different had he made his eagle putt on the 72nd hole on Sunday which would have given him a place in the play-off, and it mirrors his runner-up finish at the Nedbank in 2023 the week before winning here. What really encourages though is that his long game was on point all round, ranking 6th for SG Off the Tee, 2nd for SG Approach and 1st for SG Tee to Green on the week. Any kind of spark with the putter this week and he could go very, very close once again.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 13:08GMT 10.11.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.