Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, UAE. Designer: Greg Norman, 2009; Par: 72; Length: 7,706 yards; Fairways: Bermuda; Rough: Bermuda/Rye; Greens: TifEagle Bermuda; Stimp: 12’6″.
Course Overview. As ever, the venue for the DP World Tour Championship is the Greg Norman-designed Earth Course.
The track is a monster at an extended 7,706 yards with 2 of the par-5s measuring over 620 yards, the tough par-4 9th which is 3 feet short of 500 yards, plus the 195 yard par-3 17th which plays to an island green. Greens are large, undulating Bermudagrass which measure 12’6″ on the stimp when dry and firm and, as always, aren’t to every player’s liking.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s DP World Tour Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats | SG Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2025: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 14/1; 2024: Rory McIlroy, 5/1; 2023: Nicolai Hojgaard, 22/1; 2022: Jon Rahm, 5/1; 2021: Collin Morikawa, 15/2; 2020: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 16/1; 2019: Jon Rahm, 7/1; 2018: Danny Willett, 80/1; 2017: Jon Rahm, 12/1; 2016: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 66/1; 2015: Rory McIlroy, 5/1; 2014: Henrik Stenson, 17/2; 2013: Henrik Stenson, 11/1; 2012: Rory McIlroy, 6/1; 2011: Alvaro Quiros, 40/1; 2010: Robert Karlsson, 50/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Dubai is here.
For the 4 days of tournament play we should see dry and sunny conditions with temperatures peaking in the high-80s Fahrenheit, accompanied by light to moderate winds reaching 10-15mph in the afternoons.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of recent winners gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited here:
- 2025, Matthew Fitzpatrick (-18). 311 yards (12th), 69.6% fairways (10th), 80.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 1.74 putts per GIR (22nd)
- 2024, Rory McIlroy (-15). 340 yards (1st), 60.7% fairways (31st), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (3rd)
- 2023, Nicolai Hojgaard (-21). 313 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (25th), 75.0% greens in regulation (28th), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd)
- 2022, Jon Rahm (-20). 307 yards (13th), 42.9% fairways (46th), 77.8% greens in regulation (8th), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st)
- 2021, Collin Morikawa (-17). 302 yards (10th), 64.3% fairways (5th), 79.2% greens in regulation (7th), 1.72 putts per GIR (15th)
- 2020, Matthew Fitzpatrick (-15). 300 yards (16th), 76.8% fairways (1st), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 1.70 putts per GIR (5th)
- 2019, Jon Rahm (-19). 315 yards (8th), 67.9% fairways (8th), 87.5% greens in regulation (1st), 1.65 putts per GIR (1st)
- 2018, Danny Willett (-18). 302 yards (16th), 71.4% fairways (12th), 81.9% greens in regulation (3rd), 1.64 putts per GIR (1st)
- 2017, Jon Rahm (-19). 313 yards (4th), 66.1% fairways (22nd), 77.8% greens in regulation (26th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd)
- 2016, Matthew Fitzpatrick (-17). 298 yards (16th), 80.4% fairways (4th), 77.8% greens in regulation (21st), 1.65 putts per GIR (2nd)
- 2015, Rory McIlroy (-21). 322 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (37th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (4th)
- 2014, Henrik Stenson (-16). 310 yards (2nd), 82.1% fairways (2nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.75 putts per GIR (16th)
- 2013, Henrik Stenson (-25). 300 yards (7th), 89.3% fairways (1st), 94.4% greens in regulation (1st), 1.71 putts per GIR (8th)
- 2012, Rory McIlroy (-23). 301 yards (2nd), 73.2% fairways (22nd), 69.4% greens in regulation (47th), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st)
- 2011, Alvaro Quiros (-19). 311 yards (1st), 53.6% fairways (55th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
- 2010, Robert Karlsson (-14). 298 yards (5th), 76.8% fairways (20th), 77.8% greens in regulation (12th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st)
- 2009, Lee Westwood (-23). 298 yards (8th), 85.7% fairways (7th), 91.7% greens in regulation (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (5th)
Up until Matt Fitzpatrick’s win in 2016 you could have argued with some conviction that length off the tee was pretty much a pre-requisite here at the Earth Course. From Lee Westwood in 2009 through to Rory McIlroy in 2015, each winner had ranked inside the top-8 for Driving Distance on the week, and on 4 occasions the winner was in the top-2 for distance off the tee.
Now Fitzpatrick isn’t long by any stretch, however he has shown an ability to perform on longer tracks (a win at the Nordea Masters and 7th at Augusta spring to mind) and perhaps that’s actually the key factor in not being intimidated by the length here. More average length drivers can perform well, however shorter players need to make up for that handicap with an excellent performance from tee-to-green.
Looking a little deeper at the past 14 winners here and we see that birdie-making and bogey avoidance is also pretty important:
- Rory McIlroy (2025): par 3 scoring-2; par 4: -7; par 5: -9; 1 Eagle, 20 Birdies, 4 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
- Rory McIlroy (2024): par 3 scoring-1; par 4: -5; par 5: -9; 23 Birdies, 8 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
- Nicolai Hojgaard (2023): par 3 scoring-4; par 4: -8; par 5: -9; 2 Eagles, 24 Birdies, 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
- Jon Rahm (2022): par 3 scoring-3; par 4: -7; par 5: -10; 1 Eagle, 22 Birdies, 4 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
- Collin Morikawa (2021): par 3 scoring level; par 4: -7; par 5: -10; 21 Birdies, 4 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (2020): par 3 scoring level; par 4: -7; par 5: -8; 22 Birdies, 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
- Jon Rahm (2019): par 3 scoring -2; par 4: -4; par 5: -13; 1 Eagle, 25 Birdies, 6 Bogeys and a Double over the course of the 4 days.
- Danny Willett (2018): par 3 scoring -2; par 4: -4; par 5: -12; 1 Eagle, 23 Birdies and 7 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
- Jon Rahm (2017): par 3 scoring +1; par 4: -12; par 5: -8; 25 Birdies and 6 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (2016): par 3 scoring: -1; par 4: -4; par 5: -12; 1 Eagle, 21 Birdies, 4 Bogeys and 1 Double over the course of the 4 days.
- Rory McIlroy (2015): par 3 scoring:-2; par 4: -10; par 5: -9; 26 Birdies and 5 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
- Henrik Stenson (2014): par 3 scoring:-4; par 4: -4; par 5: -8; 23 Birdies, 5 Bogeys and 1 Double over the course of the 4 days.
- Henrik Stenson (2013): par 3 scoring:-1; par 4: -14; par 5: -10; 1 Eagle, 25 Birdies and 2 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
- Rory McIlroy (2012): par 3 scoring: level; par 4: -12; par 5: -11; 1 Eagle, 26 Birdies and 5 Bogeys over the course of the 4 days.
Generally the winner will have an excellent week on the par-4s whilst making birdie or better on around 50-60% of the par-5s during the course of the week.
Strokes Gained: 2019 was the first time that we got a view of Strokes Gained performance here at the Earth Course, and in truth it didn’t tell us much more than we might have inferred from observing the previous renewals here over the years.
Looking at the six renewals overall, SG Tee to Green is the most consistent factors between the winners:
- 2025, Matthew Fitzpatrick. T: 23rd; A: 14th; T2G: 7th; ATG: 8th; P: 5th
- 2024, Rory McIlroy: T: 2nd; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 37th; P: 11th
- 2023, Nicolai Hojgaard: T: 7th; A: 4th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 25th; P: 6th
- 2022, Jon Rahm: T: 25th; A: 2nd; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 2nd; P: 2nd
- 2021, Collin Morikawa. T: 8th; A: 10th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 6th; P: 14th
- 2020, Matthew Fitzpatrick. T: 8th; A: 33rd; T2G: 8th; ATG: 7th; P: 1st
- 2019, Jon Rahm. T: 4th; A: 4th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 4th; P: 9th
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: In terms of incoming form, the winners here had all produced some decent results in the recent past before lifting the trophy, with each having registered at least one top-7 finish in their previous 6 starts.
Matt Fitzpatrick bagged his third DP World Tour Championship title 12 months ago having recorded three top-6 finishes in his previous five starts, although he’d finished a full eleven strokes behind Aaron for a tie for 32nd the week before in Abu Dhabi.
Rory McIlroy’s had also completed his Earth Course hat-trick in 2024 which came off the back of a 3rd place finish the week before in Abu Dhabi and kick-started a run of results which saw him victorious at Pebble Beach and TPC Sawgrass before completing the career grand slam at Augusta in April.
Nicolai Hojgaard’s form had been trending before winning this 3 years ago, with finishes of 56th and 31st on the PGA Tour improving to 2nd at the Nedbank the week before his success here at the Earth Course. 10th in Abu Dhabi earlier in the season in another classy field had reinforced his liking for desert golf, having previously won in Ras al Khaimah the year before.
Jon Rahm bagged his third DP World Tour Championship title from 4 attempts here in 2022 off the back of some very clear form, finishing 2nd at Wentworth before romping to victory at the Spanish Open. 4th at the CJ Cup on his last start ensured he was a short price for this and he duly obliged at 5/1.
2021’s Champion Golfer of the Year Collin Morikawa hadn’t won since his Open Championship triumph at Royal St George’s in July, however with 2nd to Rory McIlroy at the CJ Cup and 7th at the ZOZO Championship on the PGA Tour over his previous two starts, there was plenty of evidence that he was in decent nick.
Matt Fitzpatrick’s win in 2020 came after a fortnight’s break following a missed cut at the PGA Tour’s RSM Classic. 46th at The Masters the week before is nothing of note, however prior to that he’d sat 7th heading into Sunday at the Zozo Championship, 7th to halfway at the CJ Cup and held the lead after 36 holes at Wentworth, so was clearly playing some solid golf.
Jon Rahm hadn’t played for 7 weeks before he won here in 2019, with his previous start at the Spanish Open also producing silverware. 4th in the world when arriving here, the Spaniard had also won the Irish Open earlier that year on the European Tour and had finished 2nd to Danny Willett at Wentworth a couple of weeks before his homeland win.
Danny Willett’s season was solid if unspectacular before winning 2 years ago, however with his 3 top-10s all coming in good events in Italy, Ireland and Turkey, he was seemingly saving his best for the bigger weeks on Tour.
Before that, Rahm had won twice in the season already and had produced 4 top-7 finishes in the FedEx Cup PlayOffs before 3 less convincing efforts prior to his win. Fitzpatrick had finished 7th at Augusta before winning the Nordea Masters earlier in 2016, plus he’d produced a couple of top-10 finishes in his previous 8 starts. Rory had won the Dubai Desert Classic earlier in 2015 as well as the WGC Match Play and Wells Fargo Championship, plus had some decent incoming form.
In fact all of the winners had some positive form either recently and/or from the Middle East earlier that year to encourage punters:
- Matthew Fitzpatrick: 17/8/4/4/8/32/17/6/5/5/21/32
- Rory McIlroy: 15/2/4/MC/5/68/11/12/2/2/25/3
- Nicolai Hojgaard: 21/MC/6/23/MC/14/3/5/64/56/31/2
- Jon Rahm: 1/48/10/12/55/34/5/8/16/2/1/4
- Collin Morikawa: 14/2/4/71/1/4/26/MC/63/28/2/7
- Matthew Fitzpatrick: 3/6/MC/MC/6/MC/42/7/12/26/46/MC
- Jon Rahm: MC/3/2/1/11/7/3/5/13/2/MC/1
- Danny Willett: 19/24/MC/18/MC/59/44/MC/MC/23/7/50
- Jon Rahm: 10/1/44/28/58/3/4/5/7/15/MC/36
- Matthew Fitzpatrick: MC/MC/49/6/5/MC/7/16/MC/49/16/20
- Rory McIlroy: 8/1/MC/MC/9/17/29/4/16/26/6/11
- Henrik Stenson: 5/4/2/39/19/3/38/26/23/2/24/3
- Henrik Stenson: 10/3/2/2/3/43/1/33/1/34/31/7
- Rory McIlroy: MC/10/60/5/1/24/1/1/10/2/3/MC
- Alvaro Quiros: MC/MC/53/MC/68/37/16/MC/49/7
- Robert Karlsson: WD/14/7/65/16/MC/42/29/2/34/MC/4
- Lee Westwood: 2/8/3/9/3/23/8/9/1/9/8/54
Course Form: Apart from the early renewals and Jon Rahm’s debut success in 2017, winners here generally had some decent course form prior to victory and each of the past eight winners had recorded a top-10 finish here in the past:
- Matthew Fitzpatrick: 4/1/12/34/9/1/2/5/27
- Rory McIlroy: 3/5/11/1/5/2/1/9/20/4/6/4/22
- Nicolai Hojgaard: 4
- Jon Rahm: 1/4/1
- Collin Morikawa: 10
- Matthew Fitzpatrick: 4/1/12/34/9
- Jon Rahm: 1/4
- Danny Willett: 26/21/4/50
- Jon Rahm: Debut
- Matthew Fitzpatrick: 4
- Rory McIlroy: 3/5/11/1/5/2
- Henrik Stenson: 23/24/7/1
- Henrik Stenson: 23/24/7
- Rory McIlroy: 3/5/11
- Alvaro Quiros: 42/3
- Robert Karlsson: Debut
- Lee Westwood: Debut
The 15 renewals haven’t produced any complete shocks with Westwood (16/1), Karlsson (50/1), Quiros (40/1), McIlroy (6/1), Stenson (11/1 & 17/2), McIlroy again (5/1), Fitzpatrick (66/1), Rahm (12/1), Willett (80/1), Rahm (7/1), Fitzpatrick (16/1), Morikawa (15/2), Rahm (5/1), Hojgaard (22/1), McIlroy (6/1) and Fitzpatrick (14/1) all backable for various and sometimes very obvious reasons.
Fitzpatrick (2016) and Rahm on debut (2017) were probably the most difficult to find as each of the other winners here in the event’s history have an excellent record in the Middle East swing and each of those, except Westwood, had won either in Qatar, Dubai or both over the course of their respective careers.
Fitzpatrick did however back up his success here with a top-5 finish at the Dubai Desert Classic the following year, plus Rahm won the CareerBuilder Challenge in the desert before winning this title again twice since, so perhaps it’s more of a case that the pair hadn’t really had chance to show their hands fully before they won here. Of course, Fitzpatrick winning this title twice again demonstrates how comfortable he feels in these surroundings.
The rough has been toughened a little over the years which swings the pendulum a little more towards total driving and quality ball-striking than putting in my opinion, although top-quality putters may well still find a way to get into contention this week. Those players who can find fairways (and the further down the better), find greens, and produce an impressive enough performance on the Bermuda greens are most likely to succeed in my view.
