Emirates GC. Designer: Litten, 1998; Course Type: Desert; Par: 72; Length: 7,353 yards; Water Hazards: 10; Fairways: Bermuda/Rye; Rough: Bermuda/Rye; Greens: Bermuda (TifEagle) 12’6″ on the stimp.
Course Overview. The Majlis Course is our venue once again for this year’s Dubai Desert Classic. As you’d expect with a desert course, this is a fairly exposed layout – however in contrast to last week’s course in Abu Dhabi, the track here at the Emirates Golf Club is shorter with a number of dog-leg holes which, when combined with wind which is quite often a factor, creates a little bit more of a strategic test.
History has shown that hitting greens is the key statistic at the 7,353 yard par-72 layout – once on board, the putting surfaces are pretty flat and reasonably speedy Bermuda measuring 12-13 on the stimpmeter, and they can appeal to the less adept putters on Tour.
The course is always presented in perfect condition and the greens are amongst the best on Tour. The back nine, whilst longer than the front nine, plays far easier with three mid-length par-5s in play, the short par-4 17th and the shortest of the par-3s at the 11th. The par-4 9th hole has been extended by 25 yards to make it tougher, measuring 488 yards on the card for this year.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Dubai Desert Classic that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Current/Event Form.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2019: Bryson DeChambeau, 10/1; 2018: Hao-tong Li, 110/1; 2017: Sergio Garcia, 20/1; 2016: Danny Willett, 40/1; 2015: Rory McIlroy 7/2; 2014: Stephen Gallacher, 45/1; 2013: Stephen Gallacher, 70/1; 2012: Rafael Cabrera-Bello, 125/1; 2011: Alvaro Quiros, 16/1; 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 66/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Dubai is here. The tournament should enjoy mild (mid-70s) and dry conditions throughout the 4 days. Winds will be generally moderate throughout with afternoon breezes nudging 15mph before a slightly windier day on Sunday of 20-25mph.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors.
Analysing the final stats of the past 10 winners gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
- 2019: Bryson DeChambeau (-24). 298 yards (26th), 57.1% fairways (22nd), 80.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 57.1% scrambling (58th), 1.57 putts per GIR (2nd).
- 2018: Hao-Tong Li (-23). 304 yards (18th), 50% fairways (45th), 65.3% greens in regulation (47th), 76% scrambling (13th), 1.49 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2017: Sergio Garcia (-19). 305 yards (4th), 69.6% fairways (4th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 61.5% scrambling (15th), 1.70 putts per GIR (17th).
- 2016: Danny Willett (-19). 297 yards (10th), 55.4% fairways (38th), 77.8% greens in regulation (19th), 56.3% scrambling (35th), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2015: Rory McIlroy (-22). 318 yards (1st), 44.6% fairways (67th), 83.3% greens in regulation (5th), 83.63% scrambling (3rd), 1.68 putts per GIR (14th).
- 2014: Stephen Gallacher (-16). 304 yards (5th), 50% fairways (55th), 76.4% greens in regulation (12th), 41.2% scrambling (65th), 1.66 putts per GIR (8th).
- 2013: Stephen Gallacher (-22). 298 yards (5th), 58.9% fairways (34th), 77.8% greens in regulation (12th), 75% scrambling (18th), 1.61 putts per GIR (4th).
- 2012: Rafa Cabrera-Bello (-18). 289 yards (17th), 64.3% fairways (32nd), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 72.7% scrambling (5th), 1.74 putts per GIR (25th).
- 2011: Alvaro Quiros (-11). 311 yards (1st), 48.2% fairways (49th), 72.2% greens in regulation (15th), 75% scrambling (2nd), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th).
- 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez (-11). 286 yards (25th), 58.9% fairways (43rd), 75% greens in regulation (5th), 61.1% scrambling (20th), 1.69 putts per GIR (11th).
One element that stands out from a number of those players above is that they’d previously produced a strong GIR performance here at the Emirates before winning. Sadly no performance stats were recorded for Bryson DeChambeau’s debut effort in 2016 where he finished 18th, however prior to HaoTong Li’s win in 2018 the case was pretty compelling.
Although his attendance in this event has been patchy, Garcia had previously ranked 1st for GIR here in 2009; Willett had recorded 80.6% GIR on each of his previous 2 attempts before winning in 2016; McIlroy ranked 2nd, 5th ,6th and 4th for GIR here between 2009 and 2012; Gallacher ranked 1st for GIR the year before winning, plus had achieved GIR ranks of 9/6/8 before that; likewise both Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Miguel Angel Jimenez had ranked 1st for GIR on this layout prior to winning.
Hao-Tong Li’s effort goes against that trend as he’d only played here once before, recording a GIR ranking of 56th in the field, however we wasn’t a great deal better than that when victorious 2 years ago as it was his putter which did the damage. As ever, there’s always scope for an exception to the rule in this game.
Incoming Form: Each of the last 10 winners had recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous 8 performances, so recent form was fairly strong. Rafael Cabrera-Bello’s form was probably the most tenuous of those listed, however he’d finished runner-up to Tom Lewis at the Portugal Masters before Christmas so was clearly in recent contending form:
- 2019: Bryson DeChambeau: 51/13/30/MC/1/1/19/19/1/12/7/10
- 2018: Hao-Tong Li: 3/MC/MC/25/62/48/50/66/4/13/19/MC
- 2017: Sergio Garcia: 1/5/5/5/MC/8/24/47/17/9/19/11
- 2016: Danny Willett: 1/17/54/3/52/46/11/3/28/4/4/54
- 2015: Rory McIlroy: 14/1/1/1/22/5/8/2/2/2/15/2
- 2014: Stephen Gallacher: MC/9/MC/3/53/63/25/34/38/29/8/28
- 2013: Stephen Gallacher: 24/40/6/34/MC/5/6/MC/4/16/MC/59
- 2012: Rafa Cabrera-Bello: 33/34/MC/30/2/41/19/72/15/26/48/35
- 2011: Alvaro Quiros: 39/MC/42/34/5/57/55/53/3/23/8/2
- 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez: 6/36/4/67/36/10/53/45/18/9/MC/66
Event Form. Some semblance of course form looks like a positive factor here at the Emirates with last year’s winner Byson DeChambeau joining a long list of winners here who’d previously recorded a top-20 finish around these parts. Going back to 2005, the only exceptions to the rule are Rory McIlroy in 2009 and Haotong Li in 2018:
- 2019: Bryson DeChambeau: 18
- 2018: Hao-Tong Li: 39
- 2017: Sergio Garcia: 31/MC/19/11/20/17/MC
- 2016: Danny Willett: MC/48/33/MC/13/13
- 2015: Rory McIlroy: MC/52/MC/1/6/10/5/9
- 2014: Stephen Gallacher: 4/MC/38/34/51/22/44/44/MC/31/10/2/1
- 2013: Stephen Gallacher: 4/MC/38/34/51/22/44/44/MC/31/10/2
- 2012: Rafa Cabrera-Bello: MC/20
- 2011: Alvaro Quiros: 59/MC/13/6
- 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez: 2/37/MC/8/46/38/MC/2/4/10/54/7
When the breeze picks up around these parts it can accentuate the requirement for shot-shaping and almost links-like qualities to a player’s game, an assertion that’s backed up when you look at the list of winners which includes a number of Open Champions including Mark O’Meara, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson. Even Hao-Tong Li has some Open Championship form having finished 3rd there in 2017 courtesy of a sparkling final round. This event also appears to be quite specialised with Els, McIlroy, Woods and Stephen Gallacher all winning this twice.
Conditions here are likely to shape the type of winner we see from year to year. When there’s any kind of breeze around these parts, the emphasis shifts towards ball-striking first and foremost, however in more placid years where scoring has been lower, those with a hot putter have also contended as we saw once again 12 months ago.
There’s a little more breeze in the forecast this week which might just shave a few shots of last year’s 24-under winning total, however the emphasis for me will still be on maximising and taking opportunities through high GIR and a strong enough putting performance on the week.