Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Dubai Desert Classic Tips 2026

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With last week’s Dubai Invitational acting as a gentle opener to the 2026 DP World Tour schedule for the 60 players involved, we move swiftly on to the first full-field event of the new year. Hats off to any of you who managed to find Dubai Creek winner Nacho Elvira, who was available at up to 175/1 in some places last Monday.

With the Abu Dhabi Championship now firmly ensconced in the season-ending Play-Offs, this week’s Dubai Desert Classic is the headline event of the International Swing. As the first Rolex Series event of the year it’s managed to attract an excellent field with 5 of the world’s top 30 in attendance, namely Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry, with Ryan Fox, Patrick Reed and Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson from the top 50.

4-time Dubai Desert Classic champion McIlroy heads the betting market at around the 4/1 mark give or take, with Fleetwood a couple of points longer at around 6/1. Hatton, Hovland and Lowry follow from the likes of Jayden Schaper and David Puig in this classy affair.

Before we go into more detail and my final Dubai Desert Classic tips, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as the golfing year kicks off. Welcome to you all and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, 6,600-strong private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Basically we want you to pick a single player for each of the 4 Majors any time before the start of the 2026 Masters and get those 4 names entered into the competition by one of the methods detailed on our rules page here. Best of luck all!

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Emirates GC. Designer: Litten, 1998; Course Type: Desert; Par: 72; Length: 7,439 yards; Water Hazards: 10; Fairways: Bermuda/Rye; Rough: Bermuda/Rye; Greens: Bermuda (TifEagle) 12’6″ on the stimp.

Course Overview. The Majlis Course is our venue once again for this year’s Dubai Desert Classic. As you’d expect with a desert course this is a fairly exposed layout, however the track here at the Emirates Golf Club features a number of dog-leg holes which, when combined with wind which is quite often a factor, creates somewhat of a strategic test.

Navigating successfully from tee-to-green is key on this 7,439 yard par-72 layout – once on board, the putting surfaces are pretty flat and reasonably speedy Bermuda measuring 12-13 on the stimpmeter, and they can appeal to the less adept putters on Tour. The greens themselves were rebuilt ahead of the 2022 event, adding on average 1/3 to the size of each putting surface. As ever, the newly laid turf was firmer than usual back then and has continued to settle down a little since.

The back nine, whilst longer than the front nine, plays far easier with three mid-length par-5s in play, the short par-4 17th and the shortest of the par-3s at the 11th. The 1st, 3rd and 16th holes were extended prior to the 2021 event, adding 67 yards to the total length of the course, and the short par-4 2nd has had another 11 yards added to it in the past couple of years.

dubai desert classic tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Dubai Desert Classic that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Current/Event Form | SG Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2025: Tyrrell Hatton, 9/1; 2024: Rory McIlroy, 7/2; 2023: Rory McIlroy, 16/5; 2022: Viktor Hovland, 10/1; 2021: Paul Casey, 25/1; 2020: Lucas Herbert, 200/1; 2019: Bryson DeChambeau, 10/1; 2018: Hao-tong Li, 110/1; 2017: Sergio Garcia, 20/1; 2016: Danny Willett, 40/1; 2015: Rory McIlroy 7/2; 2014: Stephen Gallacher, 45/1; 2013: Stephen Gallacher, 70/1; 2012: Rafael Cabrera-Bello, 125/1; 2011: Alvaro Quiros, 16/1; 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 66/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Dubai is here.

After a blustery start to this year’s event with winds of 15-20mph on Thursday, It looks like conditions will ease from Friday onwards with sunny spells and light winds. Temperatures will build as the week progresses with Sunday topping out around 24 Celsuis/75 Fahrenheit in the afternoon.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors.

Analysing the final stats of the past 15 winners gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2025: Tyrrell Hatton (-15). 302 yards (25th), 55.4% fairways (15th), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 42.9% scrambling (74th), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2024: Rory McIlroy (-14). 330 yards (1st), 44.6% fairways (49th), 70.8% greens in regulation (9th), 61.9% scrambling (28th), 1.73 putts per GIR (19th).
  • 2023: Rory McIlroy (-19). 306 yards (4th), 39.3% fairways (82nd), 72.2% greens in regulation (24th), 75.0% scrambling (11th), 1.62 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2022: Viktor Hovland (-12). 305 yards (13th), 62.5% fairways (3rd), 69.4% greens in regulation (10th), 63.6% scrambling (34th), 1.71 putts per GIR (18th).
  • 2021: Paul Casey (-17). 301 yards (23rd), 53.6% fairways (17th), 75.0% greens in regulation (4th), 66.7% scrambling (16th), 1.73 putts per GIR (22nd).
  • 2020: Lucas Herbert (-9). 316 yards (9th), 42.9% fairways (37th), 66.7% greens in regulation (5th), 70.8% scrambling (4th), 1.73 putts per GIR (21st).
  • 2019: Bryson DeChambeau (-24). 298 yards (26th), 57.1% fairways (22nd), 80.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 57.1% scrambling (58th), 1.57 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2018: Hao-Tong Li (-23). 304 yards (18th), 50% fairways (45th), 65.3% greens in regulation (47th), 76% scrambling (13th), 1.49 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2017: Sergio Garcia (-19). 305 yards (4th), 69.6% fairways (4th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 61.5% scrambling (15th), 1.70 putts per GIR (17th).
  • 2016: Danny Willett (-19). 297 yards (10th), 55.4% fairways (38th), 77.8% greens in regulation (19th), 56.3% scrambling (35th), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2015: Rory McIlroy (-22). 318 yards (1st), 44.6% fairways (67th), 83.3% greens in regulation (5th), 83.63% scrambling (3rd), 1.68 putts per GIR (14th).
  • 2014: Stephen Gallacher (-16). 304 yards (5th), 50% fairways (55th), 76.4% greens in regulation (12th), 41.2% scrambling (65th), 1.66 putts per GIR (8th).
  • 2013: Stephen Gallacher (-22). 298 yards (5th), 58.9% fairways (34th), 77.8% greens in regulation (12th), 75% scrambling (18th), 1.61 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2012: Rafa Cabrera-Bello (-18). 289 yards (17th), 64.3% fairways (32nd), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 72.7% scrambling (5th), 1.74 putts per GIR (25th).
  • 2011: Alvaro Quiros (-11). 311 yards (1st), 48.2% fairways (49th), 72.2% greens in regulation (15th), 75% scrambling (2nd), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th).

One element that stands out from a number of those players above is that many of them had previously produced a strong GIR performance here at the Emirates before winning. Sadly no performance stats were recorded for Bryson DeChambeau’s debut effort in 2016 where he finished 18th, however HaoTong Li’s win in 2018 and Viktor Hovland’s success in 2022 aside, the case is pretty compelling.

Lucas Herbert is a case in point, having hit 75% GIR on his debut here in 2019, ranking 13th in the field on that count, before ranking 5th for the same metric on his way to victory in 2020. Similarly, 2021 winner Paul Casey had previous GIR rankings of 2nd, 4th, 5th and 9th and no worse than 24th in the field from 7 previous starts.

Although his attendance in this event has been patchy, Sergio Garcia had previously ranked 1st for GIR here in 2009; Danny Willett had recorded 80.6% GIR on each of his previous 2 attempts before winning in 2016; Rory McIlroy ranked 2nd, 5th ,6th and 4th for GIR here between 2009 and 2012, 5th in 2015, and 9th in 2024 when victorious for the fourth time; Gallacher ranked 1st for GIR the year before winning, plus had achieved GIR ranks of 9/6/8 before that; likewise both Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Miguel Angel Jimenez had ranked 1st for GIR on this layout prior to winning, and last year’s winner Tyrrell Hatton had recorded 3rd and 5th for GIR before topping that statistic 12 months ago.

Hao-Tong Li’s effort goes against that trend as he’d only played here once before, recording a GIR ranking of 56th in the field, however we wasn’t a great deal better than that when victorious as it was his putter which did the damage. Likewise Viktor Hovland’s 57% GIR was only good enough for 42nd in the field, however that’s a sample of 1 event so perhaps not entirely representative. As ever, there’s always scope for an exception to the rule in this game.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, we now have 7 years’ worth of results from the Emirates:

  • 2025: Tyrrell Hatton: T: 4th; A: 15th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 29th; P: 16th
  • 2024: Rory McIlroy: T: 1st; A: 7th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 26th; P: 31st
  • 2023: Rory McIlroy: T: 2nd; A: 13th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 37th; P: 8th
  • 2022: Viktor Hovland: T: 2nd; A: 3rd; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 65th; P: 14th
  • 2021: Paul Casey. T: 6th; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 7th; P: 41st
  • 2020: Lucas Herbert. T: 9th; A: 54th; T2G: 7th; ATG: 3rd; P: 14th
  • 2019: Bryson DeChambeau. T: 4th; A: 12th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 32nd; P: 5th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Some consistency from all 7 winners from the Strokes Gained era with both Off the Tee and Tee to Green field rankings right up there with the best on the week. 2025 was even more extreme in this respect as the top 5 finishers all finished inside the top 6 for SG Off the Tee and they also ranked 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 18th for SG Tee to Green.

For a full Strokes Gained summary for the field over the same 7 years click here.

Incoming Form: Each of the last 15 winners had recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous 9 performances, so some recent form seems a fair pointer. Last year’s winner Tyrrell Hatton had won the Alfred Dunhill Links the previous autumn and finished inside the top 6 on his subsequent three starts:

  • 2025: Tyrrell Hatton: 1/3/MC/2/25/18/4/10/1/2/6/5
  • 2024: Rory McIlroy: 9/2/7/1/6/3/4/11/16/7/22/2
  • 2023: Rory McIlroy: 1/5/19/3/MC/8/1/2/4/4/1/4
  • 2022: Viktor Hovland: 14/36/43/17/4/49/44/18/1/1/30/4
  • 2021: Paul Casey: MC/67/2/31/49/16/17/MC/69/35/38/8
  • 2020: Lucas Herbert: 55/62/MC/8/22/MC/MC/34/14/MC/64/67
  • 2019: Bryson DeChambeau: 51/13/30/MC/1/1/19/19/1/12/7/10
  • 2018: Hao-Tong Li: 3/MC/MC/25/62/48/50/66/4/13/19/MC
  • 2017: Sergio Garcia: 1/5/5/5/MC/8/24/47/17/9/19/11
  • 2016: Danny Willett: 1/17/54/3/52/46/11/3/28/4/4/54
  • 2015: Rory McIlroy: 14/1/1/1/22/5/8/2/2/2/15/2
  • 2014: Stephen Gallacher: MC/9/MC/3/53/63/25/34/38/29/8/28
  • 2013: Stephen Gallacher: 24/40/6/34/MC/5/6/MC/4/16/MC/59
  • 2012: Rafa Cabrera-Bello: 33/34/MC/30/2/41/19/72/15/26/48/35
  • 2011: Alvaro Quiros: 39/MC/42/34/5/57/55/53/3/23/8/2

Event Form. Some semblance of course form looks like a positive factor here at the Emirates, with last year’s winner Tyrrell Hatton adding to a long list of winners here who’d previously recorded a top-25 finish around these parts. Going back to 2005, the only exceptions to the rule are Rory himself in 2009 and Haotong Li in 2018:

  • 2025: Tyrrell Hatton: MC/55/8/3/3/38/22/4/38/31
  • 2024: Rory McIlroy: MC/52/MC/1/6/10/5/9/1/6/2/3/1
  • 2023: Rory McIlroy: MC/52/MC/1/6/10/5/9/1/6/2/3
  • 2022: Viktor Hovland: 23
  • 2021: Paul Casey: 12/16/20/4/11/37/9
  • 2020: Lucas Herbert: 7
  • 2019: Bryson DeChambeau: 18
  • 2018: Hao-Tong Li: 39
  • 2017: Sergio Garcia: 31/MC/19/11/20/17/MC
  • 2016: Danny Willett: MC/48/33/MC/13/13
  • 2015: Rory McIlroy: MC/52/MC/1/6/10/5/9
  • 2014: Stephen Gallacher: 4/MC/38/34/51/22/44/44/MC/31/10/2/1
  • 2013: Stephen Gallacher: 4/MC/38/34/51/22/44/44/MC/31/10/2
  • 2012: Rafa Cabrera-Bello: MC/20
  • 2011: Alvaro Quiros: 59/MC/13/6

General experience of the Emirates looks positive too: there are no debutant winners in that list above and you need to go all the way back to Richard Green in 1997 before you’ll find a first-timer walking away with the trophy here. The occasional debutant has placed here in recent years – Patrick Reed (2nd) in 2023 and Cam Young (3rd) in 2024 for instance – however they are the exception rather than the rule, and last year the best finishing debutant was David Micheluzzi who tied for 8th place.

When the breeze picks up around these parts it can accentuate the requirement for shot-shaping and almost links-like qualities to a player’s game, an assertion that’s backed up when you look at the list of winners which includes a number of Open Champions including Mark O’Meara, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson. Even Haotong Li has some Open Championship form having finished 3rd there in 2017 courtesy of a sparkling final round. This event also appears to be quite specialised with Els, McIlroy, Woods and Stephen Gallacher all winning this multiple times.

Conditions here are likely to shape the type of winner we see from year to year. When there’s any kind of breeze around these parts, the emphasis shifts towards ball-striking first and foremost, however in more placid years where scoring has been lower, those with a hot putter have also contended.

A bit of breeze in 2022, coupled with firm greens following the renovation work to the putting surfaces, contributed to a 12-under winning total as scoring proved to be a little tougher than the previous year. Softer conditions in 2023 allowed Rory McIlroy to reach 19-under as he came out on top of his tussle with Patrick Reed. Light winds but firmer conditions in 2024 saw Rory retain his title at 14-under, with similar conditions last year seeing Tyrrell get to 15-under – something similar this week could well be the order of the day.

My Final Dubai Desert Classic Tips Are As Follows:

Rory McIlroy 8pts Enhanced Win 17/4 with bet365

Swerving Rory McIlroy last week on his 2026 reappearance was the correct strategy last week even if the eventual contenders and winner eluded us, however trying to find a justifiable reason to oppose the world no.2 on an Emirates course he loves isn’t quite so straightforward.

We backed the Northern Irishman at the Earth Course in November where only a spirited performance from Matt Fitzpatrick and an eventual play-off defeat stopped Rory from converting yet another Dubai victory, and having shaken off some rust last week at Dubai Creek he could be ready for more success in the UAE on an altogether more suitable task.

Rory by his own estimation was using the Dubai Invitational as a warm-up for this week’s first Rolex Series event of the season, “I was looking at this week as honestly a bit of a practice week going into the Desert Classic next week, just to shake off a little bit of the rust….I was hitting driver a lot this week, more for practice than anything else. Next week at the Emirates, it’s obviously important to get the ball in the fairway and give yourself chances from there.

 

But yeah, I think that was maybe a little bit of distance control. Felt like I was figuring that out as the week went on but short game and putting felt good, which is a really good sign. Just tidy up the ball-striking a little bit, and I’ll hopefully be right there next week.” Rory ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained Putting on the week, an ominous sign if he can indeed tidy the rest of his game up.

Rory hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 here at the Emirates in his last 11 starts, winning this title on 4 occasions. That ratio alone suggests he’s worth supporting this week, particularly with his closest competitor in the betting market, Tommy Fleetwood, finishing 25th last week compared to Rory’s 3rd, and defending champion Tyrrell Hatton having been out of regular tournament action for nigh-on 2 months.

Rory last won this in 2024, a week after the inaugural Dubai Invitational where he led after the first round before finishing 2nd. 2 years on and with last week’s effort having a very similar correlation having been first round leader and eventually finishing 3rd, I can see history repeating itself.

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Brandon Stone 1pt EW 150/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

With the favourite on the team, I’ll complete this week’s squad with a pair of long-priced each-way chances.

Despite not being involved in last week’s curtain-raised at Dubai Creek, Brandon Stone won’t be overly rusty heading into this week’s test given he kept himself busy deep into 2025 – and what we saw of him as last year drew to a close peaked my interest.

After a fairly uneventful late summer and early autumn, the South African got more into a groove as the events petered out, improving from 31st at the South African PGA Championship to 23rd at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and then 9th to close his 2025 campaign in Mauritius. 3rd for SG Off the Tee in Joburg was followed by 3rd for SG Approach the following week, with top-10 performances both times for SG Tee-to-Green, and that’s a great fit for the Emirates this week on a course that rewards long game excellence.

The 32 year-old has a hit-and-miss record here at the Dubai Desert Classic, missing the cut on five of his eight starts. The other efforts though are much more interesting and suggest to me that the course suits his game, it just simply needs to collide with enough form to produce a contending performance. 7th in 2017 having missed the weekend on debut the year before, Brandon’s most notable effort here was in 2021 when he improved his position throughout the four days to eventually finish runner-up to Paul Casey.

The 3-time DP World Tour winner ranked 15th for SG Off the Tee and 6th for SG Tee to Green for the full 2025 season in a year that was far from stellar overall, and after a positive start to the 2026 wraparound season he could sneak into contention here at a healthy each-way price.

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Marcel Siem 1pt EW 250/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

The other long-priced fancy I have this week is Marcel Siem.

At the age of 45, the German is in that potential no man’s land between a decent career on the main Tour and the prospect of the Senior Tour, however Marcel has chosen to focus on strength and fitness to keep himself competitive against the youngsters and the results are clear to see over the past couple of years.

Having won his maiden European Tour title in South Africa back in 2004 and accumulated a further three titles at this level up to 2014, he sprung back to life in 2023 to win the Hero Indian Open before following up in 2024 with another title, this time at the Italian Open. With 5 years to go before he can tee it up against the over-50s, perhaps there’s still scope for more titles at DP World Tour level if he can keep his health and fitness regime up.

Progressive form since the start of December has seen him finish 62nd at the Nedbank, 56th at the Alfred Dunhill Championship, 37th in Mauritius, and 13th last week up the road at Dubai Creek with his normal mix of very good golf mixed with the not so good. 14th into Sunday on his last start before Christmas, a closing 76 put paid to any aspirations of victory in his adopted homeland of Mauritius. 9th to halfway last week was again scuppered by a Saturday 73, however 66 to close was much better despite dropping a couple of shots late on and he led the field for birdies made on the week with 21 red numbers.

5th here in 2004 and 4th 8 years later, Siem has also recorded top-10 finishes in Abu Dhabi and Ras Al Khaimah to suggest that he’s capable of finding a good enough finish to pay out some place money here this week.

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