Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Dubai Invitational Tips 2026

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Stats Pages For The Dubai Invitational:

 

The return of the Dubai Invitational kicks off the DP World Tour’s 2026 campaign this week, with the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, Bahrain Championship, and Qatar Masters following on from this week’s event to complete the early-season Middle-East part of the International Swing.

Next week’s tournament at the Emirates will be the first Rolex Series event of the season, however for now we ease ourselves into the action with a 60-man pro-am featuring an encouragingly strong field for a fixture with just $2.75m in the prize pot compared to $9m in a week’s time.

As you might expect with such a short field there’s no halfway cut for players to contend with, and with the amateur element concluding on Saturday it will be left for the professionals only to battle it out for the title on Sunday.

Rory McIlroy heads the betting this week at around the 3/1 mark, with defending champion Tommy Fleetwood his nearest rival at a best price of 5/1 at the time of writing. Shane Lowry has attracted a lot of early money on Monday, sitting at around 12/1, with the red-hot Jayden Schaper 4th in the betting at 18/1.

Before we go into more detail and my final Dubai Invitational tips, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as the golfing year kicks off. Welcome to you all and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast, the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube, and our hugely popular, 6,500-strong private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Course Overview: Dubai Creek Golf & Yacht Club, as its name not so subtly suggests, is situated alongside the Creek in Dubai and boasts a whole host of golfing, wellbeing and tourist facilities alongside a floodlit par-3 course, as well as a stunning 18-hole championship golf course which will be our focus for the 4 days of tournament play.

Originally designed by Emirates GC architect Karl Litten and opened as just the second golf course in Dubai back in 1993, the layout received an EGD/Thomas Bjorn-inspired revamp in 2004 which bar a few minor hole extensions is what we’ll see this week.

Measuring 7,059 yards from its tips for the par of 71, the layout is built around several artificial lakes as well as the Creek itself meaning that water is both in abundance here, featuring significantly on 11 holes, as well as presenting the professionals with the course’s biggest dangers.

Fairways are pristine and relatively narrow in the main, flanked sparsely by date and palm trees, giving the course a tropical, coastal vibe in contrast with Litten’s more familiar design at the Emirates which we’ll be visiting next week just a few miles away. Bermuda grass has been used throughout the course with the greens being TifEagle Bermuda and running firm and fast in ideal conditions.

Three mid-length par-5s at the 4th, 10th and 13th of between 551 and 569 yards will present birdie and eagle opportunities to those players who can get into position from off the tee, as will the short par-4 3rd and 17th which will play as definite risk-reward holes if the tees are brought up a little.

The course hosted the inaugural Dubai Invitational in 2024 won by Tommy Fleetwood, plus it has seen some other action since its opening, having hosted the Dubai Desert Classic in 1999 and 2000 – more of which later – as well as a small number of Asian Tour, MENA Tour and amateur events.

dubai invitational tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Dubai Invitational that will help to shape a view on players who may play well at this event.

As noted above, this is only the second Dubai Invitational and there are some very patchy stats available from various tournaments held here, so course history needs to be considered accordingly: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Form/Course Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Course Winners: 2024: Dubai Invitational, Tommy Fleetwood, -19 (265 Strokes); 2017: MENA Tour, Mathiam Keyser (200 strokes, 3 rounds); 2016: MENA Tour, Rayhan Thomas (201, 3 rounds); 2000: Dubai Desert Classic, Jose Coceres (274, 4 rounds); 1999: Dubai Desert Classic, David Howell (275, 4 rounds); 1997: Asian Tour, Adrian Percey (272, 4 rounds); 1996: Asian Tour, Paul Friedlander (280, 4 rounds).  

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Dubai is here.

Clear and sunny conditions with temperatures peaking in the mid-70s Fahrenheit are expected. A light breeze of 5-10mph to start on Thursday is set to strengthen to maybe 15-25mph for the next two days before it relents a little on Sunday.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Fortunately we do have some basic stats from the winners of the 2024 Dubai Invitational plus the two Dubai Desert Classic events held here at Dubai Creek around the turn of the century:

  • 2024: Tommy Fleetwood (-19); 308 yards (11th), 58.9% fairways (11th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 76.9% scrambling (6th), 1.71 putts per GIR (18th)
  • 2000: Jose Coceres (-14); 264 yards (45th), 80.4% fairways (1st), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 58.3% scrambling (11th), 1.73 putts per GIR (10th)
  • 1999: David Howell (-13); 256 yards (52nd), 76.8% fairways (13th), 73.6% greens in regulation (14th), 63.2% scrambling (5th), 1.65 putts per GIR (2nd)

A fresh-faced David Howell triumphed in 1999 at the age of just 23, displaying a strong all-round game into the bargain. With Lee Westwood runner-up and Colin Montgomerie also finishing inside the top 5, it’s no surprise that Driving Accuracy was the standout statistic that week, swiftly followed by GIR. What set Howell apart from the chasing pack was the putter; however in general a strong tee-to-green game was fundamental to get a player into a contending position.

Jose Coceres’ win the following year was driven by a field-leading 80.4% fairways found complimented by 83.3% GIR (2nd), and although windy conditions put more emphasis on scrambling that week, the basic premise of precision over power remains in my view.

Despite more than 20 years having passed between Coceres’ win and Tommy Fleetwood’s triumph in 2024, the equation didn’t seem to change massively with Southport’s finest topping GIR on his way to victory.

These comments from our defending champion in 2024 give a little more of a clue of how the course played two years ago, “I feel like just with how firm the greens are, they took me by surprise to be honest in the practice round. They got really firm and fast….I think it’s kind of important to put yourself in places so you can get as much control with your iron shots as possible…But I just think it’s a course that you can’t force it too much just with the way it’s playing. Play well, play sensibly and see where you are at the end of the week.”

In terms of par-5 scoring, which is often a stat which highlights the nature of a course, no player in the three recorded renewals got beyond 10-under par for the long holes and Howell (-8 on the par 5s), Coceres (-5), and Fleetwood (-9) clearly did plenty of good work on the other holes.

  • Tommy Fleetwood: Par 3: -1; Par 4: -9; Par 5: -9; Birdies: 22; Bogeys/Worse: 3
  • Jose Coceres: Par 3: -3; Par 4: -6; Par 5: -5; Birdies: 20; Bogeys/Worse: 5
  • David Howell: Par 3: -4; Par 4: -1; Par 5: -8; Eagles: 1; Birdies: 19; Bogeys/Worse: 7

Strokes Gained: If we take Thriston Lawrence out of the equation then the stats were pretty clear from a Strokes Gained perspective here back in 2024. We had the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th best Tee-to-Green performances in the field from our top 5 finishers, plus 1st, 3rd, 7th and 8th best Approach performances:

  • 1st, Tommy Fleetwood: T: 14th; A: 3rd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 5th; P: 19th.
  • 2nd, Thriston Lawrence: T: 8th; A: 25th; T2G: 14th; ATG: 23rd; P: 1st.
  • 2nd, Rory McIlroy: T: 9th; A: 7th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 6th; P: 10th.
  • 4th, Jordan Smith: T: 3rd; A: 1st; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 40th; P: 26th.
  • 5th, Francesco Molinari: T: 19th; A: 8th; T2G: 5th; ATG: 22nd; P: 6th.

Thriston Lawrence is the exception to the rule as he led the field for SG Putting, however in general this about accurate iron-play.

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: The 7 course winners all arrived from differing levels of activity and in some cases long breaks, played over a variety of Tours.

Tommy Fleetwood had played The Sentry over in Hawaii to shake off the rust prior to winning here in 2024, however 47th of 59 players didn’t given many clues. 2nd prior to that at the Earth Course was far more relevant though:

  • 2024: Tommy Fleetwood: 5/MC/6/10/3/25/9/6/MC/12/2/47
  • 2017: Mathiam Keyser: MC/MC/5/7/WD/13/57/MC/47/15/16/28
  • 2016: Rayhan Thomas: MC/14/2/3
  • 2000: Jose Coceres: MC/8/MC/MC/MC/5/MC/55/15/8/30/10
  • 1999: David Howell: 37/MC/61/MC/MC/42/49/16/1/MC/49/27
  • 1997: Adrian Percey: MC/61/MC/29/9/39/2/MC/63/61/MC/22
  • 1996: Paul Friedlander: 15/MC/MC/46/24/50/19/45/41/29/13/15

The only one of the 7 players above to have played Dubai Creek competitively prior to their respective victory was Jose Coceres and he’d missed the cut badly the year before. Around half of this year’s field played in 2024 so it remains to be seen how relevant that form proves to be – performance from players here in 2024 can be found here.

As ever at the start of the year, we have the challenge of second-guessing how players will perform after a break, with some having played little or no competitive golf since the DP World Tour Championship.

The short field and limited course form also adds complexity, however there are a few pointers we can take from the course and the previous events that have been played here in the past to give us an angle of attack.

A relatively short course which has historically favoured precision over power will appeal to a certain type of player, and although the short par-4s and par-5s will present scoring opportunities to the more aggressive types, the danger of a watery grave lurks on many holes.

My Final Dubai Invitational Tips Are As Follows:

Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson 2pts EW 25/1 (5EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Let’s address the elephant in the room before we start – or indeed the elephants – as it’s virtually impossible to suggest that Rory McIlroy or Tommy Fleetwood can’t or indeed one of them won’t win this week, and the bookmakers have inevitably priced them as such.

Despite what Rory described as some sloppy mistakes due to rust here two years ago, he should still have won the inaugural Dubai Invitational. Some (very) short putts missed, water, and a flying finish from Tommy combined to somehow prevent the favourite from converting. Tommy though is a different beast nowadays, having won the Tour Championship at East Lake and the many millions of dollars that victory carried into the bargain, before winning again in India and coming close in Abu Dhabi and at the Earth Course. Another 1-2 in either direction isn’t out of the equation, but even the 8/1 about the dual forecast wasn’t quite enough to tempt me – although I wouldn’t blame anyone for chancing their arm on that option.

Let’s be brave and assume that the market principals are a little rusty and play for some value instead, starting with Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson who I think should be a little closer in price to some of those ahead of him in the market.

Three times a winner on the Challenge Tour, including the UAE Challenge in 2024 just up the coast from here, the 26 year-old got his much-anticipated breakthrough win on the DP World Tour at the Australian Open in December, making the gutsiest of pars on the 72nd to heap the pressure on Cam Smith which ultimately saw him 3-putt. This week’s favourite Rory McIlroy was 8 shots behind in 14th place.

That was just deserts for a player who put together a fabulous 2025, earning a PGA Tour card and entries into this year’s Masters and Open from his exploits. 10th at the Dubai Desert Classic, 2nd at the Qatar Masters, and 3rd at the DP World Tour Championship were perhaps the most relevant results to this week’s task, however there were plenty of other impressive performances in the year.

18th for SG Approach for the full 2025 season and 9th for SG Tee to Green puts him in the frame for this week’s task, and before he heads off to the PGA Tour I wouldn’t be surprised to see him repeat what he did in 2024 and win twice in the space of a little over a month.

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Ryan Fox 2pts EW 33/1 (5EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Of the players who I rate as decent each-way chances who could also trouble the market leaders, Ryan Fox is next on my list.

By his own estimation, you never quite know what kind of performance you’re going to get out of the Kiwi – indeed until he tees up, he’s not even sure himself by all accounts. Fact is though, when he’s good nowadays he’s very, very good – two Stateside victories in 2025 are testament to that fact, plus he’s won the Dunhill Links and BMW PGA Championship on the DP World Tour where the fields are amongst the strongest we see this side of the Atlantic.

The Dunhill Links victory is interesting, not least in that it’s a Pro-Am format as per this week which requires a certain amount of patience and mindset. The inaugural Dubai Invitational was described as a relaxed affair even if the final few holes were anything but relaxed, and Fox is the kind of chilled character who can thrive in this setting. The links aspect is relevant to a degree too, particularly with a bit of wind in the forecast and the promise of a firming course under sunny skies.

With his focus on the PGA Tour in 2025 he’s been lightly raced compared to many others at the back end of the year, however 39th at the Australian PGA Championship and 14th at the Australian Open means he had some competitive golf up until a month or so ago and shouldn’t be any more rusty than others in this field.

14th here in 2024 saw the 38 year-old rank inside the top-8 for both SG Off the Tee and SG Putting, yet he was mid-division at best in terms of GIR. That’s one area of his game that seems in good health of late, finding 77.8% and 72.2% of greens in his Australian outings before Christmas – if he can piece it all together here this week then he could be a danger to the favourites.

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Joost Luiten 1pt EW 66/1 (5EW, 1/5) with BetMGM

Having turned 40 in the past week and having played some great golf in 2025, it would be remiss of me not to support Joost Luiten on a course where he tied for 14th on debut 2 years ago when in patchy form compared to some of his efforts at the latter end of last year.

That effort here at Dubai Creek at the start of 2024 saw the Dutchman gain strokes on each of the key metrics without excelling on any single area. 2 years on and having played deeper into the year this time around and having arrived in Dubai last week to begin his practice, there should be less rust to get rid of and he could hit the ground running this time around.

6th at the India Championship saw Joost in the mix throughout, and he bounced back from a disappointing DP World Tour Championship effort with 10th at the Nedbank where a Saturday 65 had elevated him to 5th position heading into the final day. For me, shorter tracks – or those that are brought down to size with altitude – are far more in Joost’s wheelhouse, so Dubai Creek should be a welcome start to the year for him.

6 times a DP World Tour winner, the most recent of those victories came in Oman back in 2018 and all of the wins came at between 12- and 19-under par, which is very much relevant to this week’s task. With a milestone birthday the kind of thing that can galvanise a player in the same way that becoming a father can, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Luiten in the mix here.

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Dan Bradbury 1pt EW 90/1 (5EW, 1/5) with BetMGM

Finally, looking down the final leaderboard from 2 years ago and seeing the likes of Jordan Smith and Francesco Molinari occupying top-5 positions alongside the likes of Rory and Tommy leads me to another strong iron player in the shape of Dan Bradbury.

22nd for GIR and 15th for SG Approach in a 2025 season where he missed as many cuts as he made tells us that there was nothing particularly wrong with his key strength, yet other areas of his game let him down. 155th for SG Around the Green and 151st for SG Putting – both metrics out of 175 players – tells us where the problems laid, however this course didn’t overly favour either of those elements two years ago to suggest that he may outperform his position in the betting market.

30th here in 2024 might not sound that exciting, however he’d missed his previous cut and went on to miss his next six cuts too, so that result – as average as it was – was certainly something of an outlier and reinforces my view that the course should suit nicely when he’s playing well.

30th at the Spanish Open, 13th in India, then 2nd behind Kristoffer Reitan at the Nedbank was positive late-season form, and I can forgive him for running out of steam after that effort at Sun City when the weather closed in at the Alfred Dunhill Championship. Top 20 for both SG Around the Green and SG Putting at the Nedbank was enough to get him in the mix when combined with his superb ball-striking, and after a 4-week break the Wakefield man should be ready and raring to go.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:08GMT 12.1.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.