Course Overview. Having built up a wealth of data at Valderrama over the years from the Andalucia Masters and other events held at that most iconic of venues, that history is, for now at least, sadly resigned to the dustbin.
Real Club de Golf Sotogrande takes the reins this year with what promises to be an altogether different test. A smattering of course form exists from the turn of the century with the course hosting elements of European Tour Q School at the time, however for all intents and purposes this is a new challenge for almost all of the field this week.
At 7,099 yards for its par of 72, this Robert Trent Jones design isn’t long by modern day standards and instead uses proximity to the coast and a more exposed style as its main defence. Fairways are wide with pine, cork oaks, eucalyptus and giant palm trees dotted around the perimeters, making this a positional golf course where the emphasis is on the 2nd shot and in. Greens are elevated, placing an emphasis on quality approach play, and fairways and putting surfaces are well bunkered throughout.
Water is in play on a number of holes by virtue of the man-made lakes that litter the course, however with 4 attackable par 5s and a couple of short par 4s, I don’t see this course as anything like the test that Valderrama has presented over the years.
A 2015 renovation returned this course close to Trent Jones’s original design with the greens reduced back in size and the surfaces re-laid with A4 Bentgrass, and for those finding the right parts of greens in the requisite number, birdies and eagles should be forthcoming this week.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
As previously noted, we’re moving to a new course this week so historical results should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Event Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Events Winners. 2022: Adrian Otaegui, 60/1; 2021: Matt Fitzpatrick, 14/1; 2020: John Catlin, 125/1; 2019: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, 80/1; 2018: Sergio Garcia, 9/2; 2017: Sergio Garcia, 5/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
An active weather front pushing through the region on Thursday afternoon and into Friday morning could dump a couple of inches of rain on the course, accompanied by some fairly strong winds with 20-25mph likely and gusts in excess of 40mph. After that weather clears, the weekend looks much calmer and drier with temperatures edging towards 70 Fahrenheit in the afternoons.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. With no DP World Tour history to review, we’re going to have to rely on specification only this week.
Incoming Form: Looking at the recent form of the Andalucia Masters winners and the overriding trend is that all players had been in pretty good nick.
This includes last year’s winner Adrian Otaegui who despite missing the cut at the Dunhill Links had previously been on a run of 7 straight weekends made after his brief foray to LIV golf, included in which was 3rd place finish at the Hero Open.
2021 winner Matt Fitzpatrick had lost a play-off at the Scottish Open and improved through the week on his last start at Wentworth to finish 20th, so wasn’t in bad shape The same applies to John Catlin who, despite being a 125/1 chance, had finished 8th in Austria and 6th in Wales before closing with a round of 68 the week before his victory here in 2020 for some good momentum.
Bezuidenhout has finished 3rd on his last outing in 2019, whereas Garcia had finished 7th the week before his successful defence the previous autumn, included in which was a closing round of 65 to suggest he was rounding into form.
The previous year Sergio had finished 12th and 10th at the final two FedEx Cup PlayOff events on the PGA Tour before returning to Europe and his effort in Italy the week before winning here had shown some promise as he sat 6th going into the weekend. The others all had contending performances to their names in recent weeks too as the stats below confirm:
- Adrian Otaegui: 18/7/58/21/42/29/3/44/13/25/13/MC
- Matt Fitzpatrick: 4/MC/23/MC/10/55/2/26/57/MC/MC/20
- John Catlin: 22/16/2/MC/MC/MC/8/43/51/6/MC/25
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout: MC/24/67/2/9/36/4/14/MC/MC/25/3
- Sergio Garcia: MC/70/MC/MC/12/8/MC/MC/39/MC/24/7
- Sergio Garcia: 20/12/21/2/37/39/MC/35/12/10/MC/30
Event Form: A bit of a mixed bag here in terms of event form with John Catlin and Matt Fitzpatrick having missed the cut on their previous attempts, Arian Otaegui and Christiaan Bezuidenhout having middling records, and Sergio Garcia having an incredible record in this.
Of course these results referred to Valderrama though so what relevance they have to this week, if any, remains to be seen:
- Adrian Otaegui: 12/MC/17/58
- Matt Fitzpatrick: MC
- John Catlin: MC
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout: 29
- Sergio Garcia: 10/1/1
- Sergio Garcia: 10/1
For me, there will be two aspects to success this week. Firstly, assuming that play continues through the tougher parts of Thursday and Friday, then the ability to handle wind will be key as the forecasted weather system blows through. From there, the weekend should present a soft, scoreable course in relatively benign conditions, where those who can demonstrate an excellent approach game and hot putter may well prevail.
My selections are as follows:
