FedEx Open de France Tips 2026 - Golf Betting System

Paul Williams' FedEx Open de France Tips 2026

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Another exciting BMW PGA Championship concluded on Sunday with Wentworth debutant J.J. Spaun taking the spoils. Four birdies in his final five holes proved pivotal once Manual Elvira made a mess of the 72^nd hole, having played himself into a fantastic position with eagle on the previous hole. Spaun was a tough one to find given he’d withdrawn through injury at East Lake on his previous start, although 45/1 was the reward for punters brave enough to overlook that.

With the PGA Tour taking a breather with the Presidents Cup taking place this week, the FedEx Open de France takes centre stage – albeit without a number of the stars who graced us last week in Surrey. That said, Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick and Victor Hovland have all made the trip across the English Channel and each are understandably short in the betting, with Hovland the only one of the quartet just about creeping into double figures at the time of writing. Ryan Gerard, Kristoffer Reitan and Eugenio Chacarra follow in the betting before we start getting prices of 33/1 or more about the rest of the field.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Open de France, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,600 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Albatros Course, Le Golf National, Paris, France. Designer: Hubert Chesneau, 1990; Par: 71; Length: 7,365 yards; Water Hazards: 6; Fairways: Bent/Rye/Fescue; Rough: Bent/Rye/Fescue; Greens: Bent/Meadow Grass, 12’6″ on the stimp.

Course Overview. Le Golf National is always set up strongly for this event and danger lurks on many holes if you miss fairways with water at the start and end of each round.

The 7,365 yard, par-71 stadium course was designed to test the very best golfers with a premium on accurate driving and, in particular, approaches to difficult, undulating greens, and I suspect little will change in that respect following last year’s renovations which have added around 100 yards to the length of the course.

Missing greens has never been a great option here as scrambling is tough, so attacking from the fairway has to be the only real strategy and finding the right parts of greens with any consistency is only really possible from the short stuff.

The last few renewals have seen a mix of dry conditions (2010, 2013, 2015, 2018, 2022, 2025) and wet (2011, 2012) and a combination of both (2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2023 & 2024); wet or dry the rough here is amongst the very toughest on Tour, plus some of the holes are pretty brutal in terms of length – the 17th (480 yards) and 18th (469 yards) will still likely play amongst the most difficult on the week.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Open de France that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

The tournament moved away from its long-term home at Le Golf National last year, so 2025 results should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Our brand new predictor model is also available for this week’s FedEx Open de France where you can build your own rankings in live time using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Winners & Prices. 2025, Michael Kim: 33/1; 2024, Dan Bradbury, 175/1; 2023: Ryo Hisatsune, 100/1; 2022: Guido Migliozzi, 80/1; 2019: Nicolas Colsaerts, 100/1; 2018: Alex Noren, 16/1; 2017: Tommy Fleetwood, 22/1; 2016: Thongchai Jaidee, 66/1; 2015: Bernd Wiesberger, 33/1; 2014: Graeme McDowell, 12/1; 2013: Graeme McDowell, 25/1; 2012: Marcel Siem, 70/1; 2011: Thomas Levet, 140/1; 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 80/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the region is here.

Dry with sunny spells is the summary for Paris this week, with temperatures peaking on Saturday at around 29 Centigrade/ 84 Fahrenheit. Wind will be light throughout at 5-10mph.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the past 13 winners at Le Golf National gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test:

2024, Dan Bradbury (-16). 73.2% fairways (2nd), 75.0% greens in regulation (25th), 72.2% scrambling (15th), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th)
2023, Ryo Hisatsune (-14). 67.9% fairways (6th), 79.2% greens in regulation (6th), 66.7% scrambling (14th), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
2022, Guido Migliozzi (-16). 50% fairways (44th), 73.6% greens in regulation (14th), 84.2% scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
2019, Nicolas Colsaerts (-12). 57.1% fairways (33rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 55.0% scrambling (30th), 1.68 putts per GIR (9th)
2018, Alex Noren (-7). 75% fairways (2nd), 75% greens in regulation (5th), 55.6% scrambling (8th), 1.76 putts per GIR (37th)
2017, Tommy Fleetwood (-12). 76.8% fairways (3rd), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 63.6% scrambling (9th), 1.84 putts per GIR (53rd)
2016, Thongchai Jaidee (-11). 62.5% fairways (22nd), 69.% greens in regulation (18th), 68.2% scrambling (2nd), 1.68 putts per GIR (3rd)
2015, Bernd Wiesberger (-13). 55.4% fairways (45th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 76.9% scrambling (3rd), 1.80 putts per GIR (33rd)
2014, Graeme McDowell (-5). 62.5% fairways (17th), 68.1% greens in regulation (22nd), 56.5% scrambling (15th), 1.69 putts per GIR (4th).
2013, Graeme McDowell (-9). 71.4% fairways (15th), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), 73.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.76 putts per GIR (29th).
2012, Marcel Siem (-8). 73.2% fairways (2nd), 73.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 63.2% scrambling (4th), 1.78 putts per GIR (32nd).
2011, Thomas Levet (-7). 67.9% fairways (38th), 73.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.4% scrambling (8th), 1.77 putts per GIR (19th).
2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez (-11). 76.8% fairways (16th), 77.8% greens in regulation (11th), 56.3% scrambling (38th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd).

In addition, we have the Men’s Olympic Golf which was held here in 2024, won by Scottie Scheffler:

2024, Scottie Scheffler (-19). 69.6% fairways (18th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 76.9% scrambling (2nd), 1.69 putts per GIR (20th)

Le Golf National is perennially described as a course where tee-to-green excellence prevails and I agree with that to an extent; however minimising bogeys with an excellent short game shouldn’t be underestimated here either.

For a player to contend here they’re going to have to find the vast majority of greens in regulation or minimise bogeys with an excellent week around the greens; the winner is ultimately likely to excel in one or both areas over the four days.

On the subject of scrambling, 2024 winner Dan Bradbury ranked 15^th in the field on that count, continuing a solid trend we’ve seen from winners and contenders here at Paris National.

On the same theme, Guido Migliozzi led the field for Scrambling in 2023 and 6 of the top 7 finishers in 2019 ranked inside the top 17 for getting up and down. Alex Noren sat 8th on that count after 72 holes in 2018; Tommy Fleetwood ranked 9th the year before and runner-up Peter Uihlein led the field with an excellent 82.6%. Thongchai Jaidee ranked 2nd in the field for getting the ball up and down in 2016; players ranked 1st to 5th for scrambling finished inside the top 6 overall in 2015; 1st, 2nd and 6th for scrambling finished inside the final top 5 in 2014; likewise in 2013 players ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th for scrambling finished inside the top 6; 2012 had players ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th for scrambling finish inside the top 4 and 2011 had similar stats with 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th and 8th ranked players for scrambling finishing inside the top 7.

This all makes sense when you consider that the greens here are designed to be played firm and fast so they’ll be difficult to hold for all but the very best tee-to-green practitioners in anything but soft conditions.

Stroke Gained Stats: From the four French Opens and the Olympics where Strokes Gained stats were captured, a consistent story is emerging with both SG Approach and SG tee to Green dominating, with SG Putting also noteworthy:

2024: Dan Bradbury: T: 8th; A: 3rd; T2G: 8th; ATG: 63rd; P: 9th
2023: Ryo Hisatsune: T: 28th; A: 3rd; T2G: 5th; ATG: 51st; P: 5th
2022: Guido Migliozzi: T: 40th; A: 1st; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 11th; P: 10^th
2019: Nicolas Colsaerts: T: 4th; A: 7th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 27th; P: 17^th

Again, in terms of the Olympics we also have Scottie Scheffler’s stats to peruse, with the world number 1 actually losing strokes with the putter overall on the week:

2024: Scottie Scheffler: T: 6th; A: 7th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 7th; P: 38^th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Form-wise there’s a really mixed bag when looking at French Open winners in recent years. Michael Kim arrived in Paris last year off the back of a missing the cut at Wentworth, however 10^th at the PGA Tour’s BMW Championship prior to that had shown significant promise in the Playoffs.

Dan Bradbury hadn’t recorded a top-10 finish since late June prior to winning this event when we last visited Le Golf National in 2024, although he had shown glimpses of form at Wentworth and at the Spanish Open, sitting inside the top-14 at halfway at each event before fading. A missed cut at the Dunhill Links the week before could easily have been ignored too in hindsight.

The year before, Ryo Hisatsune had been playing solid golf over the summer months with 5 top-15 finishes from 7 starts since July, however missed cuts in Ireland and at Wentworth would before winning this would have put plenty of punters off the scent.

Guido Migliozzi’s solitary top 10 finish in 2022 had come in Holland back in May, and he’d missed 11 cuts in total in the year before finding a little more consistency in the weeks leading up to his victory 4 years ago. Nicolas Colsaerts is another case in point from 2019 with a solitary top-20 finish to his name in his previous 11 starts. That effort was on his penultimate start though at the Spanish Open where he closed with a round of 64, so there was a little bit of positivity to latch onto.

Alex Noren was clearly in good nick in 2018 having recorded 4 consecutive top-25 finishes, as was Tommy Fleetwood who’d finished 4th at the US Open and 6th at the BMW International Open immediately prior to his win; Jaidee hadn’t recorded a single top-10 finish in 2016 prior to winning; Wiesberger had finished 27th in Germany the week before and 2nd in Ireland, however in between those results were 4 missed cuts; McDowell improved on his 6th place finish in Ireland on his previous start before defending his title and was in the middle of his win-or-bust run when he arrived here the year before with form of MC/1/MC/1/MC/MC/MC; Marcel Siem was in decent nick with 4 top-10s to his name in 2012 prior to victory, whereas Tomas Levet hadn’t recorded a top 10 all season prior to his emotional (and for him painful) victory the year before.

Jimenez had missed 3 cuts in his last 5 attempts before his triumph in 2010; Kaymer was coming into form in 2009 when he won, however he’d missed the cut the week before; Larrazabal was a shock outsider who came through qualifying in 2008; Storm had managed a couple of top 10s in his last 10 starts in 2007; Bickerton had missed 4 of 5 cuts in 2006 and Remesy’s successful defence in 2005 came off the back of a very poor season. All in all, a very mixed bag:

2025, Michael Kim: 16/44/50/42/26/MC/34/MC/62/59/10/MC
2024, Dan Bradbury: MC/MC/10/MC/MC/23/63/MC/MC/35/39/MC
2023, Ryo Hisatsune: 24/15/8/58/10/26/14/13/MC/MC
2022, Guido Migliozzi: MC/72/MC/18/38/35/13/34
2019, Nicolas Colsaerts: 58/53/MC/MC/57/MC/17/64
2018, Alex Noren: 36/3/MC/MC/17/3/23/25
2017, Tommy Fleetwood: 39/MC/2/41/MC/MC/4/6
2016, Thongchai Jaidee: WD/14/28/33/57/MC/MC/31/52/38
2015, Bernd Wiesberger: MC/22/33/34/MC/MC/2/MC/MC/27
2014, Graeme McDowell: 5/46/9/10/MC/23/62/24/28/6
2013, Graeme McDowell: 9/3/45/MC/1/MC/1/MC/MC/MC
2012, Marcel Siem: 2/17/52/29/MC/12/7/33/6/57
2011, Thomas Levet: 42/MC/MC/MC/11/17/16/64/MC/MC
2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 52/12/17/17/MC/MC/8/MC/49

Event Form (back to 2010): Since 2010, event form of the winners is as follows, although as noted a change in venue last year should be considered accordingly:

2025, Michael Kim: Debut
2024, Dan Bradbury: MC
2023, Ryo Hisatsune: Debut
2022, Guido Migliozzi: MC
2019, Nicolas Colsaerts: 23/53/MC/54/MC/11/11/59/MC/22/55/MC
2018, Alex Noren: MC/MC/MC/78/37/15/MC/8/10
2017, Tommy Fleetwood: MC/MC/MC/MC
2016, Thongchai Jaidee: MC/MC/36/31/MC/26/15/MC/2/10
2015, Bernd Wiesberger: 62/47/13/18
2014, Graeme McDowell: 18/4/MC/MC/13/MC/17/1
2013, Graeme McDowell: 18/4/MC/MC/13/MC/17
2012, Marcel Siem: DQ/23/8/21/72/66/WD/18/52
2011, Thomas Levet: MC/MC/MC/50/15/34/68/MC/58/30/69/MC
2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: MC/23/23/8/55/MC/MC/66/25

Work done on Le Golf National since we were last here two years ago shouldn’t fundamentally change the demands of this tricky track and danger lurks on every hole. The course is often described as having inland links characteristics and players with a liking for that style of golf often excel here.

My Final Open de France Tips Are As Follows:

Guido Migliozzi 2pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

I must admit, my first reaction to this week’s betting market was how unappealing it was. I understand that there’s a perceived gulf in class between the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick and Victor Hovland compared to the rest of the field, however backing any of them at single digit odds – or just over in the case of Hovland – hardly gets the juices flowing.

Favourite Fleetwood missed the cur last week at Wentworth, whereas Aberg and Hovland tied for 27^th. Only Fitzpatrick recorded a top-10 finish in Surrey, and although that’s not the be-all and end-all given what we’ve seen here in recent years, I’d want a little more encouragement to play at those prices. If one of them wins then so be it; instead I’ll back a more speculative quartet of each-way chances.

Of the players who passed both the eye test and the stats test last week at Wentworth, Guido Migliozzi appeals more than most as he returns to the scene of his biggest career triumph to date.

The Italian is the sort who blows hot and cold on the course, however there were strong signs that his game was peaking once again last week in Surrey as he recorded a 10^th place finish fuelled by 8^th for SG Approach and 12^th for SG Tee to Green. 10^th for Driving Accuracy on the week was also noteworthy as Guido recorded his best result since finishing runner-up in Turkey back in May, an effort that followed a distinct improvement the week before in China.

4 times a winner at DP World Tour level, his 2022 victory at Le Golf National demonstrated just how good the 29 year-old is at his very best as he scythed his way through the field with an incredible closing round of 62 on this exacting test. We were on board when he won his most recent title last season in The Netherlands a couple of years ago, overcoming Joe Dean and Marcus Kinhult on another exposed track.

Aside from his victory here, Migliozzi has also finished 22^nd here at the 2024 Olympics and 18^th in this event later that year, plus he finished he was 5^th at St Nom la Breteche in this event 12 months ago.

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Joost Luiten 1.5pts EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

It was interesting to see Joost Luiten bounce back to form last week at Wentworth after pulling out of the Irish Open with an elbow niggle, and I’ll be interested to see if he can push on from that effort on a course that I’ve always thought should suit when his long game is firing.

3^rd for Driving Accuracy at Wentworth was backed up by a field-leading 77.8% GIR, suggesting that the Irish withdrawal was more a precaution than an issue and that his long game is back to its best. That performance was complimented by getting up and down three-quarters of the time to rank 4^th for Scrambling, with only the putter – as so often is the case – stopping him from finishing higher than his eventual 6^th place. That said, his final round 64 saw him take just 27 putts which has to give him confidence heading into the final part of this season.

9^th here in 2016 and 11^th three years later are the 40 year-old’s best efforts on the Albatros, with his only effort since then a missed cut which followed the controversial decision for him to be omitted from the Netherlands Olympic team here a few weeks before. Perhaps there’s a score to settle here at Le Golf National for the Dutchman.

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Freddy Schott 1pt EW 110/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Changing tack a little – or a lot – in terms of the conventional course fit here at Le Golf National, I’m also backing big-hitting Freddy Schott who impressed in three of his four rounds last week at Wentworth on his way to a tie for 27^th.

An opening round of 66 put the German in 7^th spot after 18 holes in Surrey before a Friday 72 effectively ended his chances of seriously contending. Weekend rounds of 67/65 were impressive through as the 25 year-old halted a run of two missed cuts to give him momentum as he looks to build on his 31^st place ranking on the Race to Dubai.

Schott got his breakthrough victory on another exposed course of similar length earlier this year in Bahrain, holding off Calum Hill and Patrick Reed impressively in the eventual play-off to earn his breakthrough. That 17-under total matched his Challenge Tour success in Denmark back in 2022, and given the forecast I can see something similar being a possible winning total here this week.

28^th here on debut back in 2023, Freddy is a far more experienced and accomplished player now who shouldn’t be pigeon-holed as a long course bully in my view.

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Fabrizio Zanotti 1pt EW 160/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally, I’m also backing Fabrizio Zanotti who’s impressed a couple of times lately and arrives here fresh having not been involved at either the Irish Open or the BMW PGA Championship.

At the ago of 43 and with 2 DP World Tour titles to his name, Zanotti has little to prove career-wise, however at 133^rd on the Race to Dubai he could do with building on the momentum of the past month if he’s going to be playing at DP World Tour level once again next season. This season hasn’t been the easiest for the Paraguayan given his status having finished 124^th in the rankings last year, and I’m sure there’s plenty of motivation to get as close to the top 100 as he can – and the sooner the better.

Just two top-20 finishes for the year to August is the reason for Fabrizio’s current predicament, however 7^th at the Nexo Championship and 9^th at The Belfry were much better efforts and he’ll know what’s required this week with playing opportunities limited before the end of the regular season.

14 attempts here at Le Golf National have seen a best finish of 9^th in 2014 so he’ll need to improve on that if he’s going to provide us with an each-way return, however 12^th here the last time he played in 2024 when in overall worse current form adds encouragement.

2^nd for GIR, 2^nd for SG Approach and 1^st for SG Tee to Green at The Belfry at the end of August were eye-catching stats, and if he can hit similar heights this week then he could produce us a healthy each-way return.

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