Fortinet Championship Tips

 

Welcome to the 2023 ‘FedExCup Fall’ which will ultimately finalise top 125 eligibility for next season that will start for the first time since 2013 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. While players in the top 50 will continue to be eligible for FedExCup Fall events, players ranked 51st and beyond carry over their FedExCup Points from the Regular Season and the FedEx St. Jude Championship and will continue to accumulate points through the FedExCup Fall toward their eligibility status for 2024.

Additionally the top 10 players in the FedExCup standings, not otherwise exempt, from the FedExCup Fall are eligible for two Signature Events in 2024 – the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational. This allows for trending players this autumn to play their way into the biggest tournaments early in 2024.

The FedExCup Fall element has been reduced to 7 events from 9 in 2022, with the South Korean-funded CJ Cup disappearing from the schedule and the Houston Open moving from November to March. The ZOZO Championship again will be played at the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club outside of Tokyo, Japan, whilst Mexico’s World Wide Technology Championship moves from El Camaleon (now hosts on the LIV Tour) to El Cardonal at Diamante.

The Fortinet Championship at the classical, tree-lined Silverado Country Club attracts a number of quality players year in, year out. This 2023 renewal which starts the FedExCup Fall sees defending champion Max Homa go for a 3-peat, with Justin Thomas also in the field.

Get up to 12 places each way at the Fortinet Championship with bet365’s ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion on golf.

bet365 have recently launched their innovative ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion on golf, following on from its success on horse racing over the past few years.

• bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. Registration required. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.

The number of Each Way Extra places offered on an event can be viewed on the Each Way Extra coupon or on the bet slip as per the example below:

Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 14:45BST 11.9.23, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

To access the different options and odds, simply select the ‘Each Way Extra’ market from the selected golf coupon to see the additional place terms that are available on your chosen event before the first group tees off. Once you’ve selected a price and the corresponding number of places from the Each Way Extra coupon, it will then appear on your bet slip.

If you don’t have a bet365 sports account then customers who sign up with bet365 via Golf Betting System receive their up to £30 in free bets account opening offer using bonus code SPORT30:

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Fortinet Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,300 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: Silverado Resort and Spa was purchased in 2010 by a small group of individuals including Johnny Miller who soon set about updating both the North and South courses. Set in the rich wine growing country of the Napa Valley, the North Course had played host to the PGA Tour from 1968 to 1976 and also the Champions Tour from 1977 to 1980. Miller’s goal had always been to attract the PGA Tour back to the North Course with a view to potentially landing the U.S. Open or PGA Championship in the future. So 2011 saw Miller re-design both courses with the 1966 Trent Jones Jnr tournament course receiving a renovation that added 250 yards and saw a host of holes re-routed.

North Course, Silverado Resort and Spa, Napa, California: Designer: Trent Jones Jnr, 1966 with a Miller redesign, 2011; Course Type: Classical, Resort, Short; Par: 72; Length: 7,123 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 2; Fairways: Bermudagrass with Poa Annua, and Rye ; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass and Rye , 2.5″; Greens: 5,400 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Stimpmeter: 11.5ft.

Course Scoring Average: 2014: 71.70 (-0.30), Difficulty Rank 24 of 52 courses, 2015: 71.11 (-0.89), Difficulty Rank 33 of 50 courses. 2016: 70.83 (-1.17), Difficulty Rank 36 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.76 (-0.24), Difficulty Rank 23 of 51 courses. 2018: 71.10 (-0.90), Difficulty Rank 29 of 49 courses. 2019: 71.24 (-0.76), Difficulty Rank 19 of 41 courses. 2020: 70.21 (-1.79), Difficulty Rank 44 of 51 courses. 2021: 71.03 (-0.97), Difficulty Rank, 32 of 50 courses. 2022: 71.52 (-0.48). Difficulty Rank, 21 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Silverado and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
• East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
• Sedgefield: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:26 325:23; 350:22.
• TPC Twin Cities: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:38; 300:31; 325:30; 350:36.
• TPC Deere Run: 250 yards from tee: 41 yards wide; 275:40; 300:36 325:33; 350:30.
• TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Trent Jones Jnr designs include:

• Chambers Bay – 2015 U.S. Open
• CordeValle – 2010 – 2013 Frys.com Open

Course Overview: The North Course is a classical, tree-lined track that’s set up to be scoreable at the Fortinet Championship. It’s not overly long at just over 7,120 yards, however the Par 72 features plenty of dog-legs with Napa Valley Oaks and Redwoods strategically placed to block approach shots. Miller re-routed a number of holes, lengthened the course, and re-worked the bunkering with the goal of creating an ‘Augusta-type’ feel. Fairways are on the tight side and are very difficult to hit –  but the penalty is not massive despite 3″ rough. Green complexes and surrounding rough are the main defence with some fairly severe undulations, and with winning totals at -16/272, -19/269, -21/267 and -17/271 across the last 4 seasons, this course doesn’t offer-up too much resistance when playing well.

This event traditionally favoured free-scoring players who can putt beautifully and confidently on greens that have Poa Annua within their structure. As we know Poa Annua is not every player’s cup of tea. Previous to 2015, a winners’ list with Molder, Blixt, Walker and Bae clearly indicated that strong putters, and those with an excellent scrambling game from the rough, had an advantage in Northern California. But in more recent times, bigger-hitting ball-strikers in the shape of Max Homa (x2), Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, Brendan Steele (x2) and Emiliano Grillo have won here at Silverado.

Set-up wise, the North Course at Silverado is a classical-style golf course – indeed Johnny Miller has a long-term goal of landing a U.S. Open or PGA Championship here. Fairly tight, tree-lined fairways can block approach shots and pin positions can be tucked into areas where accessibility is difficult. To add to the difficulty, 2017 saw 7 green complexes feature closely mown run-off areas which grab wayward approaches. The greens themselves, especially on the front side, are described as severely sloping by many, which in turn has placed Silverado in the top-half of difficulty on Tour when it comes to proximity to the pin since its arrival on the schedule. Another insightful statistic is that the course typically ranks in the top 20 hardest for Going for the Green, which makes sense when so many fairways are missed by the field.

2023 also sees a re-routed course to aid facilities and try to create exciting finishes. 10 holes will be played in a different order. Holes 1-7 and 18 will remain as in year’s past. The new finishing stretch will be as follows – 14th (par-4), 15th (par-5), 16th (par-4), 17th (par-3) and 18th (par-5). The signature par-3 on the course – the member’s 11th – will become the new 17th.

Fortinet Championship Winners: 2022: Max Homa (-16); 2021: Max Homa (-19); 2020: Stewart Cink (-21); 2019: Cameron Champ (-17); 2018: Kevin Tway (-14); 2017: Brendan Steele (-15); 2016: Brendan Steele (-18); 2015: Emiliano Grillo (-15); 2014: Sang-moon Bae (-15); CordeValle Winners: 2013: Jimmy Walker (-17); 2012: Jonas Blixt (-16); 2011: Bryce Molder (-17); 2010: Rocco Mediate (-15).

• 2022: Max Homa 65-67-72-68 -16/272 PM/AM Wave
• 2021: Max Homa 67-72-65-65 -19/269 AM/PM Wave
• 2020: Stewart Cink 67-70-65-65 -21/267 PM/AM Wave
• 2019: Cameron Champ 67-68-67-69 -17/271 AM/PM Wave
• 2018: Kevin Tway 68-67-68-71 -14/274 PM/AM Wave

OWGR of Wyndham Championship Winners: 2022: Homa 22; 2021: Homa 44; 2020: Cink 319; 2019: Champ 170; 2018: Tway 138; 2017: Steele 59.

Cut Line: 2022: -2; 2021: -3; 2020: -5; 2019: -2; 2018: -3.

Lead Score Progression:

• 2022: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -16.
• 2021: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -19.
• 2020: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -15; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -21.
• 2019: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -17.
• 2018: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -14.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Cam Davis, Stephan Jaeger, Kevin Yu, Luke List, Sahith Theegala, Cameron Champ and Will Gordon.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Fortinet Championship Winning Prices: 2022: Homa 16/1; 2021: Homa 60/1; 2020: Cink 200/1; 2019: Champ 150/1; 2018: Tway 66/1; 2017: Steele 33/1; 2016: Steele 50/1; 2015: Grillo 50/1; 2014: Bae 150/1; 2013: Walker 30/1; 2012: Blixt 28/1; 2011: Molder 40/1; 2010: Mediate 150/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 98/1; Overall Average: 79/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 79. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 79. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 77. Wind SW 12-22 mph. Sunday: Cloudy and rainy. High of 63. Wind SE 10-20 mph. Due to inclement weather, the final round featured threesomes off split tees from 8 – 10:12 a.m. PT. Preferred lies were in effect for the final round.
• 2021: Thursday: Overcast morning leading to a sunny afternoon. High of 76. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 75. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 67. Wind SW 12-22 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind WNW 6-12 mph.
• 2020: Thursday: Due to fog, the start to round one was delayed one hour and began at 8 a.m. Cloudy, with a high of 69. Wind SSW 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 70. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Hazy filtered sunshine, with a high of 85. Wind SW 4-8 mph. Sunday: Filtered sunshine, with a high of 85. Wind WSW 5-10 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind SW 6-12 mph, with gusts to 18 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 77. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Morning tee times were delayed 10 minutes due to fog. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 73. Wind NW 12-18 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 69. Wind W 6-12 mph, with gusts to 18 mph.
• 2018: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 70. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 74. Wind SW 8-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 78. Wind NW 7-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny and windy, with a high of 84. Wind N 15-25 mph, with gusts to 36 mph.
• 2017: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 86. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 84. N wind 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 69. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with moderate rain showers in the afternoon. High of 66. Wind SW 10-20 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 66, with heavy rain in the afternoon. Sunday: Cloudy, with a high of 66. Wind SW 8-15 mph.
• 2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind SW at 8-14 mph. Friday: High of 79. SW wind at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 77. Wind S at 10-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy in the afternoon, with a high of 75. SW wind at 6-12 mph.

Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Napa, California is here. This part of California, famous for its vineyards, is notoriously dry. With little in the way of rain this month and none due in tournament week, we should again see fast fairway conditions. Tournament organisers are likely to produce receptive enough greens, which sometimes firm-up across the weekend. With little wind in the forecast and with temperatures of 26-28 degrees (79-82 Fahrenheit), I would expect the standard high-teens scoring affair.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Open Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Doug Ghim; 2) Kevin Yu; 3) Max Homa; 4) Tyler Duncan; 5) Stephan Jaeger; 6) Davis Thompson; 7) Beau Hossler / Webb Simpson; 9) James Hahn; 10) Max McGreevy; 11) Akshay Bhatia; 12) Cam Davis / Nate Lashley; 14) Jim Herman; 15) Brent Grant; 16) Cody Gribble / J.J. Spaun; 18) Matti Schmid; 19) Sahith Theegala; 20) Andrew Novak / Austin Smotherman; 22) Scott Harrington / Martin Laird; 24) Kevin Tway; 25) Sam Stevens.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Sam Ryder; 2) Doug Ghim; 3) Andrew Putnam; 4) Charley Hoffman; 5) Max Homa; 6) Cam Davis; 7) Kevin Streelman; 8) Eric Cole; 9) Matthias Schwab; 10) David Lipsky; 11) Brendon Todd; 12) J.J. Spaun; 13) Russell Knox; 14) Lucas Herbert; 15) Matthew NeSmith / Seung-yul Noh / Chez Reavie; 18) Kevin Roy; 19) Ben Taylor; 20) Max McGreevy / Chad Ramey; 23) Andrew Novak; 24) Stephan Jaeger; 25) Brandon Matthews / Taylor Montgomery.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Webb Simpson; 2) Wesley Bryan; 3) Sahith Theegala; 4) Mackenzie Hughes; 5) Lanto Griffin / Alex Noren / Scott Stallings; 8) Satoshi Kodaira; 9) Cam Davis / Stephan Jaeger; 11) Troy Merritt; 12) Stewart Cink; 13) Max McGreevy; 14) Chesson Hadley / Taylor Montgomery; 16) Jason Dufner; 17) Kevin Streelman; 18) Kevin Yu; 19) Doc Redman; 20) Martin Trainer; 21) Ryan Gerard / K.H. Lee; 23) Seung-yul Noh; 24) Dylan Frittelli / Charley Hoffman.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Webb Simpson; 2) Doug Ghim; 3) Max Homa; 4) Cam Davis; 5) Sam Ryder; 6) Stephan Jaeger; 7) Max McGreevy; 8) Kevin Streelman; 9) J.J. Spaun; 10) Kevin Yu; 11) Doc Redman; 12) Jason Dufner; 13) Scott Harrington / Charley Hoffman / Brendon Todd; 16) Matt Kuchar / Martin Laird; 18) Andrew Putnam; 19) Sahith Theegala; 20) Russell Knox; 21) Matti Schmid; 22) Tyler Duncan; 23) Ryan Gerard; 24) Chez Reavie / Matti Schwab.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Dylan Wu; 2) Peter Kuest; 3) Alex Noren; 4) Nick Hardy; 5) Max Homa; 6) Eric Cole; 7) Chris Stroud; 8) Garrick Higgo; 9) Taylor Montgomery; 10) Webb Simpson; 11) Aaron Baddeley; 12) Brendon Todd; 13) Beau Hossler; 14) Zac Blair; 15) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Scott Stallings; 17) Tommy Gainey / Andrew Putnam; 19) Cam Davis / James Hahn; 21) Tyler Duncan / Callum Tarren; 23) Justin Suh; 24) Martin Laird; 25) Nick Watney.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Webb Simpson; 2) Max Homa; 3) Cam Davis; 4) Chesson Hadley; 5) Eric Cole / Stephan Jaeger / Alex Noren / Sam Ryder; 9) J.J. Spaun; 10) Dylan Wu; 11) Tyler Duncan / Andrew Putnam; 13) Martin Laird; 14) Charley Hoffman; 15) Brendon Todd; 16) Garrick Higgo / Kevin Streelman / Erik van Rooyen; 19) Nick Hardy; 20) Doug Ghim / Sahith Theegala; 22) David Lipsky; 23) Beau Hossler; 24) Stewart Cink / William McGirt.

For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Silverado since 2016 click here.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Fortinet Championship winners here at Silverado since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical California Par 72:

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2022, Max Homa (-16). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 15th.
• 2021, Max Homa (-19). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 15th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 14th.
• 2020, Stewart Cink (-21). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 23rd, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 13th.
• 2019, Cameron Champ (-17). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 13th, SG Around the Green: 19th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 28th.
• 2018, Kevin Tway (-14). SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 23rd, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 18th.
• 2017, Brendan Steele (-15). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 48th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 29th.
• 2016, Brendan Steele (-18). SG Off the Tee: 20th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 38th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 6th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 11th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 22nd, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 18th.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2014 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2022, Max Homa (-16). 301 yards (34th), 57.1% fairways (7th), 70.8% greens in regulation (7th), 32’11” proximity to hole (10th), 85.7 % scrambling (3rd), 1.69 putts per GIR (13th).
• 2021, Max Homa (-19). 311 yards (24th), 57.1% fairways (7th), 72.2% greens in regulation (19th), 37’2″ proximity to hole (48th), 60.0 % scrambling (42nd), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2020, Stewart Cink (-21). 316 yards (11th), 55.4% fairways (24th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 29″8″ proximity to hole (22nd), 90.9% scrambling (2nd), 1.74 putts per GIR (52nd).
• 2019, Cameron Champ (-17). 337 yards (1st), 53.6% fairways (21st), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 37″9″ proximity to hole (51st), 84.2 % scrambling (1st), 1.74 putts per GIR (38th).
• 2018, Kevin Tway (-14). 319 yards (14th), 51.8% fairways (40th), 72.2% greens in regulation (18th), 36″3″ proximity to hole (48th), 80.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.73 putts per GIR (22nd).
• 2017, Brendan Steele (-15). 328 yards (1st), 67.9% fairways (3rd), 79.2% greens in regulation (4th), 29″10″ proximity to hole (6th), 73.3 % scrambling (7th), 1.81 putts per GIR (60th).
• 2016, Brendan Steele (-18). 292 yards (23rd), 64.3% fairways (5th), 75.0% greens in regulation (21st), 30″0″ proximity to hole (16th), 72.2 % scrambling (4th), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
• 2015, Emiliano Grillo (-15). 300 yards (37th), 64.3% fairways (8th), 73.6% greens in regulation (16th), 30″0″ proximity to hole (3rd), 73.7 % scrambling (5th), 1.74 putts per GIR (41st).
• 2014, Sang-moon Bae (-15). 299 yards (26th), 55.4% fairways (45th), 75.0% greens in regulation (6th), 28″5″ proximity to hole (4th), 77.8 % scrambling (3rd), 1.70 putts per GIR (18th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 19th, Driving Accuracy: 18th, Greens in Regulation: 11th, Proximity to Hole: 23rd, Scrambling: 8th, Putting Average 28th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how the North Course at Silverado has set-up in the past and what specific skills it requires:

Max Homa (2022): “I drove the ball unbelievable last year if I remember right. This year my mid irons have been really good, but it’s not too far off. My game honestly from last year all the way to now, from this event last year to now feels very similar, which is great. It’s just a testament to my coach, Mark Blackburn. It feels like I’m doing the same stuff, I’m just getting a little better at it, so it feels quite similar. I get on these greens and I feel like I read them really well. Joe reads them great, so anytime I brought him 2 in for a read I just feel like we have a good eye for the greens. So nothing feels too different, but I’m happy that, last year I felt like I was struggling a little bit around like 150 to 200 and this week it feels much better so some of these par 3s I feel a lot more confident on. Yeah, it’s not too dissimilar.

“Yeah, the North Course fits my eye. I think I know what to do when I’m out of position, I think that’s quite important. And yeah, when I am in position, it fits me. I hit a lot of wedges, been hitting the wedges really well, so when you get a lot of wedges from these fairways I feel like I can attack the pins, and when I’ve been out of position I just feel like I know where to leave the golf ball. I don’t know, I guess I just see the golf course pretty well.”

Max Homa (2021): “I love coming back to California. I seem to play well in California. I love this event, I love this golf course.

My eagle on 16. Yeah, I made the worst swing I’ve made in like a year and a half on the hole prior and fortunately came back and hit a really good drive, had a really good number. I can’t remember what it was, but it was a perfect 7-wood if I just drew it a little. That hole’s interesting, if you just keep it anywhere inside the bunker and right of the pin, it will bounce up onto the green. Went just past. Haven’t made a long putt in a while, so it’s nice to see one go in. Yeah, it was just one of those holes, hit three good shots and good to be 2 under on one hole.

This place is all based you know, yesterday you saw the pins were gnarly and nobody would make a lot of birdies. Today they were definitely more favourable, but you need to be in the fairway or at least on the right angle, but if you hit good shots, you’ll get it close. Yesterday you couldn’t really get the ball too close to the hole, so just depends what they do with the golf course with the pins tomorrow.”

Stewart Cink (2020): “Well, I think the ground has dried out a lot, so the ball’s going farther in the air, but it’s also going farther when it lands, especially off the tees, so you’re having to account for a little bit more of that. The rough is dried out, so it’s playing a little bit more unpredictable than it was before when it was still kind of damp. And the greens are still holding, so I still expect scores to be pretty low today.”

Cameron Champ (2019): “I just play (the par-5s) them as aggressive as I can. Obviously key is getting it in the fairway out here, some of the par 5s are pretty narrow, and then from there, like I said, I usually play my best whenever I stay aggressive and that’s what I try to do on the par 5s. Out here it just depends on the pins. Sometimes I don’t even care if I’m in the rough, it doesn’t really matter. I’ll just try to position it off the tee. If the pin’s far left, I’ll play the right side. And like I said, I’ll take it in the rough being up there hitting driver. So that’s kind of how I look at it this week. For me, the par 5s out here are key. I feel like I have to birdie those with my length, and some of the chances I can have at them, those are key for the rest of the week.”

Kevin Tway: “Yeah, I played in the wind all the time from Oklahoma State, and now I live in Jupiter and it’s windy there, so I’m comfortable with the wind. Got to hit the ball solid and that’s just what I’m trying to do. Yeah, the 2nd hole’s hard, especially when it was cold this morning. I think I hit 2-iron and I don’t hit many 2-irons on par 3s. Yeah, that hole’s tough. If the greens firm up, a couple of pins could be pretty tough, but there’s no wind, so it should be pretty good scoring.”

Brendan Steele: “The difficulty on this course is definitely on the greens. You have to be careful where you leave it. They’re quick and got a lot of slope. A few have tons of slope. Nos. 3, 4, 8, these holes, like if you get on the wrong side you’ve got no chance. As the week goes on it’s going to firm up. If you’re out of position it’s going to be almost impossible to hold the greens, as it was last year. I think even though there are some shorter holes that they’re really good strategically because they have areas where you can’t be always. So you know, okay, if I’m going to lay up here I need to lay up left so I can come in this way or you have the tree in your way or there is a bunker on the other side. If you’re hitting good shots you can score well, and if you’re not hitting good shots it’ll penalized you a little bit.”

Emiliano Grillo: “The course asks you to be aggressive a little bit, but you have to be very smart out there. If you play smart you can score well. Out here you got to play well off the tee. You got to play from the fairway. If not, you can get some bogeys out there. I think the main key is staying patient and hitting some solid shots.”

Justin Rose: “Yeah, this is a golf course where you have to drive it well. If you do drive it well around here, you set up a lot of birdie chances. The par-5s are all within range and then there are a lot of par-4s where you have wedges into the green. That’s why you see guys going low. Also a tricky course. Has its subtleties. You got to put the ball in play. There are some doglegs. Pretty narrow off the tee. It’s kind of the course if you play well you can go low. It’s going to find out our if you’re not on your game.”

Sang-moon Bae: “Honestly, I really like this course because it’s like a classic – always classic courses you need really good iron shots for second, really narrow, small greens, a lot of undulation. I think the greens were pretty soft this week, but the fairways were a little firm, but rough is not easy. So I drove it pretty good, but iron shot was really, really good, and that’s why I made a lot of birdies this week.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Fortinet Championship since 2014:

• 2022 – Max Homa: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2021 – Max Homa: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 24th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2020 – Stewart Cink: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 26th, Round 3: 7th.
• 2019 – Cameron Champ: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2018 – Kevin Tway: Round 1: 22nd, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2017 – Brendan Steele: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2016 – Brendan Steele: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 16th, Round 3: 6th.
• 2015 – Emiliano Grillo: Round 1: 13th, Round 2: 19th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2014 – Sang-moon Bae: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the Fortinet Championship winners since 2014 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

• 2022 – Max Homa: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2021 – Max Homa: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2020 – Stewart Cink: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 8 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2019 – Cameron Champ: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 ahead.
• 2018 – Kevin Tway: Round 1: 1 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2017 – Brendan Steele: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2016 – Brendan Steele: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 9 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2015 – Emiliano Grillo: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2014 – Sang-moon Bae: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 4 ahead.

Incoming Form of Fortinet Championship since 2014:

• Max Homa: 3rd Tour/23rd BMW/42nd St Jude/24th Rocket.
• Max Homa: 63rd BMW/47th Northern Trust/51st WGC St Jude/40th OC.
• Stewart Cink: MC Wyndham/46th 3M/62nd Memorial/17th Workday.
• Cameron Champ: 28th Sanderson/65th BMW/21st Northern Trust/MC Wyndham.
• Kevin Tway: 43rd Dell Tech/56th Northern Trust/11th Wyndham/23rd Barracuda.
• Brendan Steele: 44th BMW/56th Dell Tech/MC Northern Trust/MC PGA.
• Brendan Steele: 64th BMW/72nd Deutsche/22nd Barclays/17th Travelers.
• Emiliano Grillo: 1st web.com Final/MC Nationwide/2nd Small Business/9th Hotel Fitness.
• Sang-moon Bae: 15th ANA Open/MC Barclays/14th Wyndham/MC Canada.
• Jimmy Walker: 11th BMW/MC Deutsche/54th Barclays/MC Wyndham.
• Jonas Blixt: 3rd Shriners/20th Deutsche/44th Barclays/55th Wyndham.
• Bryce Molder: 10th Shriners/64th Barclays/56th PGA/10th Barracuda.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2014. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2022 – Lower – PM -8/64 – 100/1.
• 2021 – Reavie – AM -7/65 – 60/1.
• 2020 – Knox – AM -9/63 – 95/1.
• 2019 – Scott/Landry – AM/PM Split -7/65 – 28/1 125/1.
• 2018 – Straka – PM -9/63 – 150/1.
• 2017 – Duncan/Hoge/Steele – All AM -7/65 – 125/1 100/1 45/1.
• 2016 – Piercy – AM -10/62.
• 2015 – Steele – AM -8/64.
• 2014 – Bae/Gonzales AM/PM Split -6/66.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Max Homa.
• 3 – Jimmy Walker.
• 2 – Scott Piercy, Chez Reavie, Nick Watney.
• 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Sang-moon Bae, Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Cam Davis, Jason Dufner, James Hahn, J.B. Holmes, Russell Knox, Matt Kuchar, Nate Lashley, William McGirt, Geoff Ogilvy, Sean O’Hair, D.A. Points, Ted Potter Jnr, Andrew Putnam, Scott Stallings, Chris Stroud, Justin Thomas, Kevin Tway, Erik van Rooyen, Richy Werenski.

The Fortinet Championship, previously the Safeway Open or Frys.com, produces some interesting trends. Although the tournament has had various schedule slots across the ‘Fall Series,’ all winners have been between 16/1 and 200/1 across the past 12 renewals.

In terms of form Max Homa (2021 win), Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Brendan Steele and Kevin Tway of late, highlight that immediate top 10 form here is no requirement for victory. Emiliano Grillo, in 2015, on the other hand, was quite simply playing exceptional golf after winning the web.com Tour Championship on his previous outing.

Cink, Steele, Bae, Molder, Blixt and Walker all had previous main Tour top 10 finishes ‘Out West’ to their names, whilst Max Homa had won the 2021 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in February, prior to winning here at Silverado in September. So west coast form is an angle, but it’s not imperative.

This tournament in recent times has also seen a pretty equal mix of experienced Tour winners and maiden winners – Molder, Blixt and Walker at CordeValle; plus Grillo and Tway all won their first PGA Tour titles here.

On the other side, Sang-moon Bae had won at TPC Four Seasons in 2013 prior to winning here in 2014 and Brandon Steele had only tasted PGA Tour victory once, a distant 4 years prior to lifting the trophy here in 2016. Cameron Champ was also another single winner when capturing the title here in 2019, having won the 2018 Sanderson Farms Championship prior to his win here at Silverado. Stewart Cink had won 6 times on the PGA Tour, but was winless for 11 years before winning here in 2020, with Max Homa being a 2-time PGA Tour winner prior to his 2021 victory and a 4-time winner prior to 2022. As far as patterns go, it’s a veritable melting pot in reality.

Spreading things slightly broader and taking the first tournament after the Tour Championship into account across the last 13 seasons – naturally this includes the ‘Fall Series’ from 2010 through to 2013 – 10 of those 13 tournaments have been won by players ranked in the top 90 in the Official Golf World Rankings. Bae (2014), Tway (2018) and Cink (2020) won with OWGR ranks of 195, 138 and 319 respectively.

• Bill Haas – 2010 Viking Classic – OWGR 89 – 22/1
• Kevin Na – 2011 Shriners Open – OWGR 76 – 60/1
• Ryan Moore – 2012 Shriners Open – OWGR 44 – 14/1
• Jimmy Walker – 2013 Frys.com Open – OWGR 66 – 30/1
• Sang-moon Bae – 2014 Frys.com Open – OWGR 195 – 150/1
• Emiliano Grillo – 2015 Frys.com Open – OWGR 72 – 50/1
• Brendan Steele – 2016 Safeway Open – OWGR 88 – 50/1
• Brendan Steele – 2017 Safeway Open – OWGR 59 – 33/1
• Kevin Tway – 2018 Safeway Open – OWGR 138 – 66/1
• Joaquin Niemann 2019 Greenbrier – OWGR 84 – 28/1
• Stewart Cink 2020 Safeway Open – OWGR 319 – 200/1
• Max Homa – 2021 Fortinet Championship – OWGR 44 – 60/1
• Max Homa – 2022 Fortinet Championship – OWGR 22 – 16/1

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:35BST 11.9.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.