Congratulations to DP World Tour colleague Paul Williams for tipping up BMW PGA Championship winner Shane Lowry last week at 18/1.
Welcome to the 2022/2023 PGA Tour season. After crowning Rory McIlroy as the 2021/22 FedEx Cup Champion just over 2 weeks ago, the 2022/23 PGA Tour kicks off this week in California at the freshly titled Fortinet Championship (Safeway Open as was).
In an overall schedule which has largely stayed the same, the Far East Swing is again impacted with South Korea’s CJ Cup, again being played in the United States this year at Congaree Golf Club in South Carolina. Congaree was last seen on the PGA Tour in 2021, where it hosted the Palmetto Championship. The ZOZO Championship again will be played at the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club outside of Tokyo, Japan. 9 PGA Tour 22/23 season events will be played this year, with all of them being hosted on courses we know.
The Fortinet Championship at the resort-style Silverado Country Club attracts a number of quality players year-in, year-out. This 2022 renewal sees Hideki Matsuyama, Max Homa, Corey Conners, Tom Hoge and Harris English from the OWGR top 50 amongst a full 156-man field who are all looking to start the new season with a win.
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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Fortinet Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Guide: Silverado Resort and Spa was purchased in 2010 by a small group of individuals including Johnny Miller who soon set about updating both the North and South courses. Set in the rich wine growing country of the Napa Valley, the North Course had played host to the PGA Tour from 1968 to 1976 and also the Champions Tour from 1977 to 1980. Miller’s goal had always been to attract the PGA Tour back to the North Course with a view to potentially landing the U.S. Open or PGA Championship in the future. So 2011 saw Miller re-design both courses with the 1966 Trent Jones Jnr tournament course receiving a renovation that added 250 yards and saw a host of holes re-routed.
North Course, Silverado Resort and Spa, Napa, California: Designer: Trent Jones Jnr, 1966 with a Miller redesign, 2011; Course Type: Classical, Resort; Par: 72; Length: 7,123 yards; Water Hazards: 2; Fairways: Bermudagrass with Poa Annua, and Rye; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass and Rye, 3″; Greens: 6,200 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Stimpmeter: 11.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2014: 71.70 (-0.30), Difficulty Rank 24 of 52 courses, 2015: 71.11 (-0.89), Difficulty Rank 33 of 50 courses. 2016: 70.83 (-1.17), Difficulty Rank 36 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.76 (-0.24), Difficulty Rank 23 of 51 courses. 2018: 71.10 (-0.90), Difficulty Rank 29 of 49 courses. 2019: 71.24 (-0.76), Difficulty Rank 19 of 41 courses. 2020: 70.21 (-1.79), Difficulty Rank 44 of 51 courses. 2021: 71.03 (-0.97), Difficulty Rank, 32 of 50 courses.
Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Silverado Country Club and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:
Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:28; 325:24; 350:27.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Robert Trent Jones Jnr designs include:
Chambers Bay – 2015 US Open
CordeValle – 2010-2013 Frys.com Open
The Mines Resort & GC – 2010-2012 CIMB Classic
Course Overview: The North Course is a classical, tree-lined track that’s set up to be scoreable at the Fortinet Championship. It’s not overly long at just over 7,120 yards, however the Par 72 features plenty of dog-legs with Napa Valley Oaks and Redwoods strategically placed to block approach shots. Miller re-routed a number of holes, lengthened the course and re-worked the bunkering with the goal of creating an ‘Augusta-type’ feel. Fairways are on the tight side and are very difficult to hit – but the penalty is not massive despite 3″ rough. Green complexes and surrounding rough are the main defence with some fairly severe undulations, and with winning totals at -19/269, -21/267, and -17/271 across the last 3 seasons, this course doesn’t offer up too much resistance when playing well.
This event has traditionally favoured free-scoring players who can putt beautifully and confidently on greens that have Poa Annua within their structure. As we know Poa Annua is not every player’s cup of tea. Previous to 2015, a winners’ list with Molder, Blixt, Walker and Bae clearly indicated that strong putters, and those with an excellent scrambling game from the rough, had an advantage in Northern California. But in the past 7 renewals, bigger-hitting, ball-strikers in the shape of Max Homa, Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, Brendan Steele (x2) and Emiliano Grillo have won here at Silverado. Steele has always had a penchant for putting on the west coast though having grown up in California.
Set-up wise, the North Course at Silverado is a classical-style golf course – indeed Johnny Miller has a long-term goal of landing a U.S. Open or PGA Championship here. Fairly tight, tree-lined fairways can block approach shots and pin positions can be tucked into areas where accessibility is difficult. To add to the difficulty, 2017 saw 7 green complexes feature closely mown run-off areas which grab wayward approaches. These now feature across the 15th to 18th holes just to add a new variant. The greens themselves, especially on the front side, are described as severely sloping by many, which in turn has placed Silverado in the top-half of difficulty on Tour when it comes to proximity to the pin since its arrival on the schedule. Another insightful statistic is that the course typically ranks in the top 20 hardest for Going for the Green, which makes sense when so many, fairways are missed by the field. With 5 holes (the 5th, 8th, 9th, 16th and 18th) where Going for the Green becomes a factor, look for players who can be successfully aggressive with their approach shots.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats | SG Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Max Homa, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, Gary Woodland, Andrew Putnam, Brendan Steele, Cam Davis, Luke List and Troy Merritt.
2021: Thursday: Overcast morning leading to a sunny afternoon. High of 76. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 75. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 67. Wind SW 12-22 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind WNW 6-12 mph.
2020: Thursday: Due to fog, the start to round one was delayed one hour and began at 8 a.m. Cloudy, with a high of 69. Wind SSW 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 70. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Hazy filtered sunshine, with a high of 85. Wind SW 4-8 mph. Sunday: Filtered sunshine, with a high of 85. Wind WSW 5-10 mph.
2019: Thursday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind SW 6-12 mph, with gusts to 18 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 77. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Morning tee times were delayed 10 minutes due to fog. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 73. Wind NW 12-18 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 69. Wind W 6-12 mph, with gusts to 18 mph.
2018: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 70. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 74. Wind SW 8-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 78. Wind NW 7-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny and windy, with a high of 84. Wind N 15-25 mph, with gusts to 36 mph.
2017: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 86. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 84. N wind 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph.
2016: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 69. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with moderate rain showers in the afternoon. High of 66. Wind SW 10-20 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 66, with heavy rain in the afternoon. Sunday: Cloudy, with a high of 66. Wind SW 8-15 mph.
2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind SW at 8-14 mph. Friday: High of 79. SW wind at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 77. Wind S at 10-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy in the afternoon, with a high of 75. SW wind at 6-12 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Napa, California is here.
This part of California, famous for its vineyards, is notoriously dry. With little in the way of rain this month and none due in tournament week, we should again see fast fairway conditions. Tournament organisers are likely to produce receptive enough greens, which sometimes firm-up across the weekend. With little wind in the forecast, and with temperatures of 20 degrees to 25 degrees Celsius, I would expect the standard high-teens scoring affair.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the 3M Open / Cazoo Classic (Southport), which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Corey Conners; 2) Charley Hoffman; 3) Troy Merritt; 4) Taylor Pendrith; 5) Wyndham Clark; 6) Gary Woodland; 7) Chris Gotterup / Max Homa; 9) Emiliano Grillo; 10) Hayden Buckley; 11) Stewart Cink / Brandon Wu; 13) Rickie Fowler; 14) Patrick Rodgers; 15) Cameron Champ; 16) Kramer Hickok / Luke List; 18) Tom Hoge; 19) Taylor Moore; 20) Lucas Glover; 21) James Hahn / Robert Streb; 23) Thomas Detry; 24) Tyler Duncan / Brendan Steele.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Chez Reavie / Matti Schmid; 3) Ben Griffin; 4) Corey Conners / Thomas Detry; 6) David Lipsky; 7) Adam Long; 8) Tom Hoge; 9) Taylor Pendrith; 10) Trey Mullinax; 11) Cam Davis; 12) Taylor Moore; 13) Russell Knox; 14) Charley Hoffman / Trey Merritt; 16) Jason Day / Emiliano Grillo / Stephan Jaeger / Brendan Steele; 20) Cameron Percy; 21) Alex Smalley; 22) Jason Dufner; 23) Callum Tarren; 24) Chesson Hadley / Luke List / Sahith Theegala.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Ben Griffin; 2) Andrew Putnam; 3) Max Homa; 4) Hideki Matsuyama; 5) Cam Davis; 6) Martin Laird; 7) Taylor Moore; 8) Richy Werenski; 9) Danny Willett; 10) Patrick Rodgers; 11) Vincent Whaley; 12) Robert Streb; 13) Emiliano Grillo; 14) Mackenzie Hughes / Stephan Jaeger; 16) Michael Thompson; 17) Tom Hoge; 18) Trey Mullinax / Gary Woodland; 20) Cameron Percy; 21) David Lipsky; 22) Ryan Brehm; 23) Scott Piercy / Brandon Wu; 25) Corey Conners.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Ben Griffin; 2) Corey Conners; 3) Taylor Pendrith; 4) Taylor Moore; 5) Cam Davis / Charley Hoffman; 7) Thomas Detry; 8) Emiliano Grillo; 9) Trey Mullinax / Matti Schmid; 11) Max Homa / David Lipsky / Troy Merritt; 14) Tom Hoge; 15) Chez Reavie; 16) Patrick Rodgers; 17) Jason Day / Andrew Putnam; 19) Stephan Jaeger / Robert Streb; 21) Chris Gotterup / Brendan Steele; 23) Cameron Percy; 24) Lee Hodges / Martin Laird.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Ben Griffin; 2) Thomas Detry; 3) Andrew Putnam; 4) Emiliano Grillo; 5) Max Homa; 6) Maverick McNealy / Alex Noren; 8) Brendon Todd / Matt Wallace; 10) Richy Werenski; 11) Austin Cook; 12) Danny Lee / Justin Lower; 14) Chesson Hadley; 15) Beau Hossler; 16) Russell Knox; 17) Sahith Theegala / Michael Thompson; 19) Denny McCarthy; 20) Wyndham Clark; 21) Taylor Moore; 22) Tom Hoge / Trey Mullinax; 24) Hideki Matsuyama; 25) Sung Kang / J.J. Spaun.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Ben Griffin; 2) Thomas Detry; 3) Emiliano Grillo / Andrew Putnam; 5) Trey Mullinax; 6) Corey Conners / Cam Davis; 8) Taylor Moore; 9) Max Homa; 10) Tom Hoge; 11) Lee Hodges; 12) Wyndham Clark / Taylor Pendrith; 14) David Lipsky; 15) Troy Merritt; 16) Callum Tarren / Michael Thompson; 18) Robert Streb; 19) Charley Hoffman; 20) Russell Knox; 21) Stephan Jaeger / Sahith Theegala / Richy Werenski; 24) Chris Gotterup / J.J. Spaun.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Silverado Country Club since 2016 click here.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the traditional stats of Silverado CC winners since 2014 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2021, Max Homa (-19). 311 yards (24th), 57.1% fairways (7th), 72.2% greens in regulation (19th), 37’2″ proximity to hole (48th), 60.0 % scrambling (42nd), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
2020, Stewart Cink (-21). 316 yards (11th), 55.4% fairways (24th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 29″8″ proximity to hole (22nd), 90.9% scrambling (2nd), 1.74 putts per GIR (52nd).
2019, Cameron Champ (-17). 337 yards (1st), 53.6% fairways (21st), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 37″9″ proximity to hole (51st), 84.2 % scrambling (1st), 1.74 putts per GIR (38th).
2018, Kevin Tway (-14). 319 yards (14th), 51.8% fairways (40th), 72.2% greens in regulation (18th), 36″3″ proximity to hole (48th), 80.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.73 putts per GIR (22nd).
2017, Brendan Steele (-15). 328 yards (1st), 67.9% fairways (3rd), 79.2% greens in regulation (4th), 29″10″ proximity to hole (6th), 73.3 % scrambling (7th), 1.81 putts per GIR (60th).
2016, Brendan Steele (-18). 292 yards (23rd), 64.3% fairways (5th), 75.0% greens in regulation (21st), 30″0″ proximity to hole (16th), 72.2 % scrambling (4th), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
2015, Emiliano Grillo (-15). 300 yards (37th), 64.3% fairways (8th), 73.6% greens in regulation (16th), 30″0″ proximity to hole (3rd), 73.7 % scrambling (5th), 1.74 putts per GIR (41st).
2014, Sang-moon Bae (-15). 299 yards (26th), 55.4% fairways (45th), 75.0% greens in regulation (6th), 28″5″ proximity to hole (4th), 77.8 % scrambling (3rd), 1.70 putts per GIR (18th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 17th, Driving Accuracy: 19th, Greens in Regulation: 16th, Proximity to Hole: 25th, Scrambling: 8th, Putting Average 30th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2021, Max Homa (-19). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 15th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 14th.
2020, Stewart Cink (-21). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 23rd, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 13th.
2019, Cameron Champ (-17). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 13th, SG Around the Green: 19th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 28th.
2018, Kevin Tway (-14). SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 23rd, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 18th.
2017, Brendan Steele (-15). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 48th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 29th.
2016, Brendan Steele (-18). SG Off the Tee: 20th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 38th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 6th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 11th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 25th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 18th.
So let’s take a view from players as to how Silverado has set up in the past and what specific skills it requires:
Max Homa (2021): “I love coming back to California. I seem to play well in California. I love this event, I love this golf course.
My eagle on 16. Yeah, I made the worst swing I’ve made in like a year and a half on the hole prior and fortunately came back and hit a really good drive, had a really good number. I can’t remember what it was, but it was a perfect 7-wood if I just drew it a little. That hole’s interesting, if you just keep it anywhere inside the bunker and right of the pin, it will bounce up onto the green. Went just past. Haven’t made a long putt in a while, so it’s nice to see one go in. Yeah, it was just one of those holes, hit three good shots and good to be 2 under on one hole.
This place is all based you know, yesterday you saw the pins were gnarly and nobody would make a lot of birdies. Today they were definitely more favourable, but you need to be in the fairway or at least on the right angle, but if you hit good shots, you’ll get it close. Yesterday you couldn’t really get the ball too close to the hole, so just depends what they do with the golf course with the pins tomorrow.”
Stewart Cink (2020): “Well, I think the ground has dried out a lot, so the ball’s going farther in the air, but it’s also going farther when it lands, especially off the tees, so you’re having to account for a little bit more of that. The rough is dried out, so it’s playing a little bit more unpredictable than it was before when it was still kind of damp. And the greens are still holding, so I still expect scores to be pretty low today.”
Cameron Champ (2019): “I just play (the par-5s) them as aggressive as I can. Obviously key is getting it in the fairway out here, some of the par 5s are pretty narrow, and then from there, like I said, I usually play my best whenever I stay aggressive and that’s what I try to do on the par 5s. Out here it just depends on the pins. Sometimes I don’t even care if I’m in the rough, it doesn’t really matter. I’ll just try to position it off the tee. If the pin’s far left, I’ll play the right side. And like I said, I’ll take it in the rough being up there hitting driver. So that’s kind of how I look at it this week. For me, the par 5s out here are key. I feel like I have to birdie those with my length, and some of the chances I can have at them, those are key for the rest of the week.”
Kevin Tway: “Yeah, I played in the wind all the time from Oklahoma State, and now I live in Jupiter and it’s windy there, so I’m comfortable with the wind. Got to hit the ball solid and that’s just what I’m trying to do. Yeah, the 2nd hole’s hard, especially when it was cold this morning. I think I hit 2-iron and I don’t hit many 2-irons on par 3s. Yeah, that hole’s tough. If the greens firm up, a couple of pins could be pretty tough, but there’s no wind, so it should be pretty good scoring.”
Brendan Steele: “The difficulty on this course is definitely on the greens. You have to be careful where you leave it. They’re quick and got a lot of slope. A few have tons of slope. Nos. 3, 4, 8, these holes, like if you get on the wrong side you’ve got no chance. As the week goes on it’s going to firm up. If you’re out of position it’s going to be almost impossible to hold the greens, as it was last year. I think even though there are some shorter holes that they’re really good strategically because they have areas where you can’t be always. So you know, okay, if I’m going to lay up here I need to lay up left so I can come in this way or you have the tree in your way or there is a bunker on the other side. If you’re hitting good shots you can score well, and if you’re not hitting good shots it’ll penalized you a little bit.”
Emiliano Grillo: “The course asks you to be aggressive a little bit, but you have to be very smart out there. If you play smart you can score well. Out here you got to play well off the tee. You got to play from the fairway. If not, you can get some bogeys out there. I think the main key is staying patient and hitting some solid shots.”
Justin Rose: “Yeah, this is a golf course where you have to drive it well. If you do drive it well around here, you set up a lot of birdie chances. The par-5s are all within range and then there are a lot of par-4s where you have wedges into the green. That’s why you see guys going low. Also a tricky course. Has its subtleties. You got to put the ball in play. There are some doglegs. Pretty narrow off the tee. It’s kind of the course if you play well you can go low. It’s going to find out our if you’re not on your game.”
Sang-moon Bae: “Honestly, I really like this course because it’s like a classic – always classic courses you need really good iron shots for second, really narrow, small greens, a lot of undulation. I think the greens were pretty soft this week, but the fairways were a little firm, but rough is not easy. So I drove it pretty good, but iron shot was really, really good, and that’s why I made a lot of birdies this week.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Fortinet Championship since 2014:
2017 – Duncan/Hoge/Steele – All AM -7/65 – 125/1 100/1 45/1.
2016 – Piercy – AM -10/62.
2015 – Steele – AM -8/64.
2014 – Bae/Gonzales AM/PM Split -6/66.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker.
3 – Jimmy Walker.
2 – Max Homa, Scott Piercy, Chez Reavie, Brendan Steele, Nick Watney, Gary Woodland.
1 – Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Cam Davis, Jason Dufner, Harris English, Emiliano Grillo, James Hahn, Tom Hoge, Russell Knox, Matt Kuchar, Nate Lashley, Luke List, Hideki Matsuyama, William McGirt, Andrew Putnam, Chris Stroud, Nick Taylor, Vaughn Taylor, Kevin Tway, Richy Werenski.
The Fortinet Championship, previously the Safeway Open or Frys.com, produces some interesting trends. Although the tournament has had various schedule slots across the ‘Fall Series’ before becoming the now PGA Tour curtain-raiser, all winners have been between 28/1 and 200/1 across the past 12 renewals.
In terms of form, Max Homa, Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Brendan Steele and Kevin Tway of late, highlight that immediate top 10 form here is no requirement for victory. Emiliano Grillo in 2015, on the other hand, was quite simply playing exceptional golf after winning the web.com Tour Championship on his previous outing.
Cink, Steele, Bae, Molder, Blixt and Walker all had previous main Tour top 10 finishes ‘out west’ to their names, whilst Max Homa had won the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in February prior to winning here at Silverado in September. So west coast form is an angle, but it’s not imperative.
This tournament in recent times has also seen a pretty equal mix of experienced Tour winners and maiden winners – Molder, Blixt and Walker at CordeValle; plus Grillo and Tway all won their first PGA Tour titles here.
On the other side, Sang-moon Bae had won at TPC Four Seasons in 2013 prior to winning here in 2014, and Brandon Steele had only tasted PGA Tour victory once, a distant 4 years prior to lifting the trophy here in 2016. Cameron Champ was also another single-winner when capturing the title here in 2019, having won the 2018 Sanderson Farms Championship prior to his win here at Silverado. Stewart Cink had won 6 times on the PGA Tour, but was winless for 11 years before winning here in 2020, with Max Homa being a 2-time PGA Tour winner prior to his 2022 victory. As far as patterns go, it’s a veritable melting pot in reality.
Spreading things slightly broader and taking the first tournament after the Tour Championship into account across the last 12 seasons – naturally this includes the ‘Fall Series’ from 2010 through to 2013 – 9 of those 12 tournaments have been won by players ranked in the top 90 in the Official Golf World Rankings. Bae (2014), Tway (2018) and Cink (2020) won with OWGR ranks of 195, 138 and 319 respectively.
Bill Haas – 2010 Viking Classic – OWGR 89 – 22/1
Kevin Na – 2011 Shriners Open – OWGR 76 – 60/1
Ryan Moore – 2012 Shriners Open – OWGR 44 – 14/1
Jimmy Walker – 2013 Frys.com Open – OWGR 66 – 30/1
Maverick McNealy 2pts EW 28/1 (8 Places EW, 1/5*) with bet365
A look at Maverick McNealy’s PGA Tour best finishes highlights a player who is very, very specialised. 5th (2020) and 2nd (2021) at Pebble Beach (course rota of 1 Par 71 and 2 Par 72s at circa 7,100 yards); 8th (2022) at TPC Deere Run (Par 71 at 7,281 yards); 8th (2020) at Detroit Golf Club (Par 72 at 7,320 yards), 7th (2020) and 9th (2022) at Old Greenwood (Par 71 at 7,390 yards at altitude) and 4th (2021) at Harbour Town (Par 71 7,121 yards). 11th (2020) at PGA National and 12th (2020) plus 11th (2021) at El Camaleon also came on a Par 70 at 7,125 yards and a Par 71 at 7,017 yards. So it’s short formats all the way for Maverick.
So across the Major Championship strength fields of FedEx St Jude Championship and BMW Championship it was noteworthy to see McNealy finish 31st at the Par 70, 7,233 yard TPC Southwind. Apart from the Bermudagrass greens, where McNealy isn’t great, Southwind is a medium length course and rounds of 67-67-65 across Thursday, Friday and Sunday were encouraging. On to Wilmington Country Club which at 7,534 yards and a Par 71 was not Maverick’s bag at all. 32nd there was a decent enough result especially with a closing 68 on Sunday which was the T4 best round of the day.
So 12 months after almost scoring a 50/1 victory on him here, I’m back in on Maverick at a Silverado track which at 7,123 yards is the kind of Par 72 we know he performs well at, plus naturally he’s undoubtedly Poa Annua positive and he also tends to save his very best performances for his home Golden State. Indeed 7 of McNealy’s last 10 top-10 finishes have come in California, including 3rd at the 2019 Ellie Mae Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour. That’s pretty incredible. RESULT: MC
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Davis Riley 2pts EW 35/1 (8 Places EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Davis Riley is an exceptional talent who must be looking forward to this fall with real belief. Up just under 300 places in the Official World Golf Rankings so far in 2022, Davis has performed brilliantly. 2nd at the Valspar Championship behind Sam Burns, 5th at Mexico Open behind Jon Rahm and 4th at the Charles Schwab Challenge behind Burns (again) and Scheffler, the 25 year old Mississippian has mixed it with the very best. He’s also landed top-20 finishes at the Sony Open, the Memorial Tournament, the Wyndham and the PGA Championship. Big tournaments and a Major Championship to boot. As rookies went in an exceptional season for them, there weren’t many better.
As ever the next step is to solidify his position in his second season on the PGA Tour, and to of course chase for that all-important first victory, and I think will Silverado will be a decent course for him. Long and accurate off the tee is never a bad combination and ranking 16th for Birdie Average across last season ranked him alongside the likes of Matsuyama, Rahm and Niemann – not exactly bad company.
And across the Major Championship strength fields of FedEx St Jude Championship and BMW Championship it was noteworthy to see Riley shoot top 10 rounds of 68 and 67 on Friday and Saturday in Delaware, alongside 31st at TPC Southwind. Prior to that, 13th at Sedgefield also saw the University of Alabama graduate in 7th place heading into Sunday.
He’s undoubtedly there or thereabouts and I also like some course correlations with him. A win at TPC San Antonio on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020 links in brilliantly with the likes of Bowditch, Finau, Moore, Snedeker, Steele and Tway, all of whom have either won here at Silverado or gone mighty close. And Riley’s PGA Tour breakout 2nd at Copperhead in March also correlates very nicely with the likes of Bae, Burns, Cink and Homa, all of whom have won here or gone close. RESULT: MC
*bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.
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✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
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Troy Merritt 1pt EW 55/1 (8 Places EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Troy Merritt ticks lots of boxes this week.
A 2-time PGA Tour winner, his wins have come at -18/266 and -23/265 so he knows how to get to the kind of winning total required this week, and he’s coming off a good season last year where he grossed just under $2 million and reached the BMW Championship for only the 3rd time in his career.
He jumped to my attention for this at the Major-strength FedEx St Jude Championship where opening 65s across Thursday and Friday placed him in 2nd place going into the weekend. 5th going into Sunday, he was only 3 shots back from the lead, but a 73 when paired with Sungjae Im saw him drop to 28th. My card though had been marked.
Comfortable in California, his performances in the Golden State are excellent. 15th (2010 course debut) at Torrey Pines; 11th (2018) at Riviera; 8th (2018) and 4th (2022) at Pebble Beach; 2nd (2020) at Old Greenwood; Troy has also finished 15th (2016), 4th (2018) and 16th (2021) here at Silverado across his past 6 appearances in Napa. Those results could have been much better considering the Iowa-born Merritt was 4th after 36 holes in 2016 and 3rd after 54 holes here last year.
Driving the ball arrow straight – he ranks 3rd in this field for Strokes Gained Off the Tee across the past 8 weeks; Troy also sits in the top 12 for Tee to Green, and in the top 15 for both Approach and Strokes Gained Current Form. RESULT: T59
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✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
bet365 New Customer Offer: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad
Jason Day 1pt EW 60/1 (8 Places EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Jason Day with Brandt Snedeker is tied for the most Poa Annua or Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour wins in this field since 2008 with 4 victories apiece. And as you would expect “Jay Day” has a cracking record in the state of California. 1st (2015 & 2018), 2nd (2014), 3rd (2022) with 2 additional top-9 finishes at Torrey Pines; Pebble Beach has seen Day finish 2nd (2018), 4th (2015, 2019 & 2020), 5th (2017) with 3 additional top 7 finishes. You can also throw in 4th at the 2020 PGA Championship played at TPC Harding Park into the mix as well.
Greens containing Poa Annua are undoubtedly the 34 year-old Australian’s friend and although I can’t promise the 2015 version of Jason this week at Silverado, there have been signs that he’s playing well enough to get in the mix here in Napa.
He finished his regular PGA Tour season with some promising signs of life. 17th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in late July included a final round 66. An opening round 67 at the Wyndham Championship saw him gain +2.5 Strokes from Tee to Green, before flu symptoms saw him WD. And at the FedEx St Jude Championship he shot an opening round 65, before a Friday 74 saw him miss the cut.
That’s the deal with Jason as you never quite know what you are getting, but in this quality of field, at these odds, I’m taking the positives – especially as the Queenslander across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers ranks 16th for Approach and 17th for Tee to Green. Fresh and reset I could definitely see Jason playing well here in California, especially as he ranks 2nd this week in my Fortinet Predictor Model. RESULT: MC
*bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.
✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
bet365 New Customer Offer: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad
James Hahn 1pt EW 125/1 (8 Places EW, 1/5*) with bet365
James Hahn to me has always been synonymous with the west coast swing. I will never forget him going all “Gangnam Style” at the 16th hole at the 2013 Waste Management Phoenix Open, but Hahn has always been the sort to produce in the desert of Arizona and Nevada, or on tree-lined old style courses across Hawaii and California.
2nd at the 2018 Sony Open (Waialae); 4th at the 2013 Humana Challenge (PGA West); 3rd at the 2013 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and 1st at the 2015 Northern Trust Open (Riviera CC), James has always played nice stuff in these environs. You can also add 4 top-17 finishes at TPC Scottsdale (Phoenix) and 2 top-20 finishes at TPC Summerlin (Las Vegas) into the mix as well.
Never consistent, James since May undoubtedly stepped up a level on the PGA Tour. 9th at TPC Potomac, 9th at TPC Craig Ranch, a fast-finishing 4th at TPC Twin Cities was his best finish on the Tour since the 2018 Sony. Since then form has tapered off with MC-47-61, but even then James has scored rounds of 65 across his last 2 outings at Sedgefield (Saturday) and TPC Southwind (Thursday). And that excites me for Silverado this week, on the basis that Hahn finished 9th here only 2 years ago, entering Sunday tied for the lead with Cameron Percy and Brian Stuard. RESULT: T51
*bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.
Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:10BST 12.9.22 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.
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