Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Hainan Classic Tips 2026

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After a week’s break, the DP World Tour’s Asian Swing begins this week with the Hainan Classic returning for a second successive year, albeit in a pre-Masters position in the schedule as opposed to last year’s late April date.

After the success of last year’s inaugural event, the format has changed slightly for 2026 with the field being trimmed to 120 from 156 and being played over two courses for the first two days alongside an amateur event. The weekend will then be played between the professionals after a regular halfway cut.

Angel Ayora leads the betting this week in the absence of Patrick Reed and Jayden Schaper, with 11/1 the best price available at the time of writing about the Spaniard breaking his maiden here this week. Thriston Lawrence, Oliver Lindell, Matthew Jordan and Wenyi Ding following Ayora in the market.

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Course Overview. To accommodate the amateur competition, two courses are being used this week with the Blackstone Course – which we saw last year – hosting three of the four rounds, with the ‘Vintage’ Course the venue for the other round. Both weekend rounds will be played therefore at the Blackstone.

The Blackstone course was constructed on the volcanic lava field here at Mission Hills with the holes carved around the local wooded areas, vegetation and lakes/wetlands to create a striking layout aesthetically. From its tips the course can play as a 7,808 yard par 73 with 5 Par-5s, however for the tournament this week the 18th has been converted to a long par 4 making it a 7,637 yard par 72 according to the DP World Tour website.

Going back to the 2011 World Cup, Gary Woodland alluded to the fact that the fairways are quite generous, “The good thing is there’s a lot of room out there.  The bad thing is that if you hit it in the lava, you obviously hit a pretty poor shot. There’s no going back. You’re going to have to re‑tee.” In fact, many of the players mentioned the width from off the tee, so provided that players aren’t too flagrant with their drives, the more aggressive types tend to enjoy this layout.

The greens are multi-tiered Paspalum and finding the right part of the putting surfaces is the key to scoring, so the emphasis for me is quality iron play for aggressive players who can keep the ball in play from off the tee.

The Vintage Course is shorter at around 7,300 yards for its par of 72 and promises a different test to the host course. A tree-lined parkland layout, heavy bunkering is the main defence with blind shots and doglegs making this a more strategic test.

Tournament Stats. With only last year’s event to go on, stats are patchy this week: Current Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Hainan Island is here.

Largely dry and sunny conditions are expected this week in China with temperatures peaking around 30 Celsius (86 Fahrenheit) throughout the four days of tournament play. Winds will be light at 5-12mph for the most part.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. The traditional stats for the top 5 finishers last year give us some indication of what’s required on the host course this week:

  • 1st: Marco Penge (-17); 300 yards (20th), 73.2% fairways (33rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 50% scrambling (50th), 1.73 putts per GIR (20th)
  • 2nd: Sean Crocker (-14); 283 yards (54th), 82.1% fairways (9th), 73.6% greens in regulation (6th), 73.7% scrambling (6th), 1.77 putts per GIR (34th)
  • 2nd: Kristoffer Reitan (-14); 304 yards (10th), 66.1% fairways (52nd), 70.8% greens in regulation (19th), 66.7% scrambling (17th), 1.65 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 4th: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (-13); 299 yards (22nd), 78.6% fairways (16th), 72.2% greens in regulation (13th), 70% scrambling (12th), 1.71 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 5th: Martin Couvra (-12); 298 yards (29th), 76.8% fairways (21st), 70.8% greens in regulation (19th), 76.2% scrambling (1st), 1.76 putts per GIR (31st)

The width of the fairways on the Blackstone Course is evident from the driving accuracy stats last year – even the more flagrant players were hitting close to two-thirds of fairways. Hitting greens and converting enough chances was therefore the key strategy 12 months ago.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the same leading finishers ranked as follows:

  • Marco Penge: T: 3rd; A: 8th; T2G: 12th; ATG: 59th; P: 3rd
  • Sean Crocker: T: 24th; A: 3rd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 5th; P: 40th
  • Kristoffer Reitan: T: 26th; A: 16th; T2G: 16th; ATG: 29th; P: 5th
  • Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen: T: 4th; A: 42nd; T2G: 18th; ATG: 33rd; P: 7th
  • Martin Couvra: T: 17th; A: 4th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 19th; P: 42nd

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

The top 5 finishers all gained strokes from off the tee and each ranked inside the top-20 for SG Tee to Green, with eventual winner Marco Penge also producing a strong week with the putter to finish three ahead of the field.

Incoming Form: The incoming form of 2025’s leading five players was as follows:

  • Marco Penge: MC/MC/28/22/MC/27/20/3/19/49/MC/26
  • Sean Crocker: 50/27/42/42/MC/MC/MC/25/MC/WD/52/MC
  • Kristoffer Reitan: MC/MC/47/MC/36/24/14/MC/MC/MC/31/69
  • Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen: 50/14/2/8/39/10/MC/MC/2/2/22/10
  • Martin Couvra: 34/7/7/MC/MC/4/5/53/MC/14/31/MC

Marco Penge won the first of his three DP World Tour titles here last year having shown signs of form already that season. 3rd at the weather-affected South African Open was a strong performance and 26th at the China Open after a three week break set him up for his breakthrough victory.

With a slight change in format and only last year’s event to go on it terms of any tangible form, we’ll have to rely largely on the venue’s specification and gut feel this week.

My Final Hainan Classic Tips Are As Follows:

Niklas Norgaard Moller 2pts EW 28/1 (6EW, 1/5) with BetMGM

Angel Ayora heads the market once again this week as he continues his quest to become a DP World Tour winner, however it’s Niklas Norgaard who peaks my interest far more at over double the odds.

Statistically both men fit the bill: Ayora ranks 5th on Tour for Driving Distance compared to Norgaard’s 4th, and the pair rank 5th and 14th respectively for SG Off the Tee for the season to date. What Niklas has in the locker though is both a DP World Tour title – the 2024 British Masters – and a year’s experience on the PGA Tour that his campaign in 2024 earned him, and to that end I make him a better option this week.

5th at the Myrtle Beach Classic was as good as it got last year over in the United States, although the 33 year-old was still active late into the year, finishing 14th at the Bermuda Championship in mid-November. Ultimately though his campaign wasn’t good enough to retain his card and he’s back at this lower level for 2026, and that’s a level in which he could seriously thrive when he finds some momentum

36th at the Qatar Masters saw the Dane rank 7th for GIR despite only finding 35.7% of fairways; 29th last time out South Africa wasn’t much better at 42.9% accuracy, however the Blackstone Course here at Mission Hills offers far more respite for the wayward, and provided he can produce a solid enough effort on the Vintage Course he could be a very strong contender for the title this year.

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Eugenio Chacarra 2pts EW 28/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Like Norgaard, another player with a high ceiling is Eugenio Chacarra and I’m expecting a big season from the 24 year-old as he looks to fulfil his dream of playing on the PGA Tour.

Of course joining LIV at the very start of his professional career wasn’t likely to help him achieve his stated goal of being a Stateside regular, however with that chapter of his career behind him and a DP World Tour card in his pocket courtesy of his Indian Open victory last March (note for biorhythm fans), he has the foundations to build towards his target this season.

3rd at the Alfred Dunhill Championship in December followed 28th at the Nedbank as the Spaniard got his new season off to a solid start, and although 15th at the Dubai Invitational is his best result of 2026 thus far, 21st last time out at the Puerto Rico Open when playing on an invite in that PGA Tour event is strong enough form compared to the level that many of this field are used to playing. 8th for putts per GIR on the Paspalum that week is interesting ahead of this week’s agronomy with the same grass used widely across both of this week’s courses.

14th for Driving Distance, 21st for SG Off the Tee, and 24th for SG Tee to Green for the season to date are the kind of metrics that I’m looking for this week and I can see the Madrid native going very well here.

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Dan Bradbury 2pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

As punters, perhaps we’re too quick to dismiss players who’ve just won a tournament because of the mental and physical exertions involved. In days gone by, winning back-to-back events was the preserve of the golfing elite, however times have changed and to that end Dan Bradbury is an intriguing option this week.

In this 2025/26 wraparound season we’ve already seen Jayden Schaper win in consecutive weeks before Christmas, Patrick Reed win twice in three starts in the Middle East, and Casey Jarvis secure titles in Kenya and South Africa over the course of a fortnight.

All three men are now in great shape to secure a PGA Tour card for next season, with Reed’s wins of a significant enough level for him to also be a live runner for the Race to Dubai title, and perhaps this is the point. The carrot now for doubling down rather than dining out after a win is huge, and these players know that if they can maximise their patches of top form then Stateside riches could well be the prize.

On top of this there’s also modern fitness regimes to consider as well mental coaching, all of which reinforces a view that backing players after they’ve just won could be a sound strategy; it would have certainly have proven fruitful on the evidence of this season to date.

Suffice it to say then, I’ve supporting Joburg Open winner Bradbury this week. he was positive in every Strokes Gained category when victorious last time out, and at 7th for the season for SG Off the Tee and averaging over 312 yards with his drives, I see no reason why he can’t get straight back in the saddle this week following a week off last week for him to celebrate his third DP World Tour title.

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Freddy Schott 1pt EW 66/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

The argument for Freddy Schott is fairly similar to that of Bradbury, and he completes my team this week.

Victory in Bahrain at the start of February was impressive in that he stared down Patrick Reed and Calum Hill in the eventual play-off, when the more experienced men would have been expected to swat aside the man seeking his maiden victory. Port Royal is another layout that encourages aggressive play and for me the German is well-suited to this track, despite withdrawing half way through his first round last year when struggling badly.

2nd for SG Off the Tee on his way to victory last month, his long game was in similar shape last time out at the South African Open where he ranked 4th on the same metric when finishing in a tie for 14th place overall. He closed with a 63 that week, which was the best round of the final day and tied the lowest round of the week, and after a fortnight’s rest I can see him featuring heavily here this week.

9th on Tour for Driving Distance for the season to date combined with 18th for SG Off the Tee is enough for me statistically, and the 24 year-old could be another who pretty much wraps up his PGA Tour card for 2027 should he win here this week.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:12GMT 16.3.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.