Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open Tips 2021

Congratulations if you were on-board Viktor Hovland at Monday prices up to 18/1. His 3 PGA Tour wins have all come on Paspalum greens across the tropical climes of Mexico and Puerto Rico. This column landed a full 50/1 each-way return on Joaquin Niemann.

This week we have the freshly-sponsored Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open. 12 months ago this event was the curtain-raiser for The Masters in November and was played for the first time at Memorial Park Golf Course. Tournament organisers the Astros Foundation, led by Astros owner Jim Crane, work hard to generate a quality field and 2021 sees Sam Burns, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Tyrrell Hatton, Brooks Koepka, Marc Leishman, Shane Lowry, Joaquin Niemann, Patrick Reed, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, Cameron Smith, Lee Westwood and Matthew Wolff in the field.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Houston Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,000 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: The Houston Open from 2003 through 2019 was played at Golf Club of Houston (formerly Redstone GC), on a Par 72 course which featured many Florida set-up traits. Winners there included Fred Couples, Vijay Singh (twice), Adam Scott, Paul Casey, Anthony Kim, Phil Mickelson, J.B. Holmes, Russell Henley and Ian Poulter, traditionally the week before The Masters. 2020 saw a move to Memorial Park Golf Course, which had received a $19 million renovation funded by Astros owner Jim Crane via the tournament-organising Astros Foundation. The course crafted by Tom Doak was not your standard PGA Tour affair, proving difficult to tame.

Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston, Texas: Designer: John Bredemus 1935, with Tom Doak renovation 2019; Course Type: Resort; Par: 70; Length: 7,412 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 4; Fairways: 419 Bermudagrass; Rough: 419 Bermudagrass 2.25″; Greens: 7,000 sq.ft average featuring MiniVerde Bermudagrass; Tournament Stimpmeter 12-12.5ft. Course Scoring Average 2020: 71.03 (+1.03), Difficulty Rank 8 of 51 courses.

Course Overview: The first thing to point out is that Memorial Park Golf Course is a municipal golf course which caters for 60,000 rounds per year. Previously a John Bredemus 1935 design, Tom Doak was brought in by tournament sponsor Jim Crane, to completely renovate Memorial Park, so that it can host both the Houston Open each year and then cater for the amateur player for the other 51 weeks of the year. Doak, with some help from player consultant Brooks Koepka, delivered a +7,400 yard design in just 10 months.

The routing of the course in general is the same as the old course, but Doak has added far more movement in both the fairways and especially around the greens. And his brief was to make Memorial Park an exciting venue for both PGA Tour and leisure golfers alike.

At 7,412 yards for a Par 70, the course is long and stretching in length. But it also shares a pretty quirky set-up, as the course features 5 par-3s and 3 par-5s in total. 2 par-5s are on the front 9, with a driveable par-4, the 13th, on the back side, with a further par-5.

Off the tee, Doak designs tend to feature very generous fairways, and although these are tree-lined, those trees tend to be well back. Rough was pretty penal as well in 2020, although that wasn’t the main defence of this course.

As part of Tom Doak’s brief, the course only features 19 bunkers, on the basis that they are easy for Tour pros but difficult for amateurs. Instead there are lots of tight grass slopes, contours and green complex surround slopes which repel approach shots, then requiring a tight lie to an elevated green recovery shot.

The tough, contoured green complexes and associated run-offs and the sheer length of the Par 70 set-up created relative mayhem here in 2020, with Memorial Park playing as the 5th toughest non-Major course of the 2020/21 season.

Changes since last year’s event include renovating the 9th green complex and taking away 2 of the bunkers and adding 750 square feet to the 2nd green.

And finally the green surfaces themselves, which at an average 7.000 sq.ft are large and feature MiniVerde UltraDwarf Bermudagrass green complexes. Other current PGA Tour stop-offs with MiniVerde include TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic of New Orleans) and East Lake (Tour Championship), plus the old Houston Open host course at the GC of Houston, also featured them – although they were overseeded in its April guise

Winners: Hosted at Memorial Park: 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13); Hosted at Golf Club of Houston: 2019: Lanto Griffin (-14); 2018: Ian Poulter (-19); 2017: Russell Henley (-20); 2016: Jim Herman (-15); 2015: J.B. Holmes (-16); 2014: Matt Jones (-15); 2013: D.A. Points (-16); 2012: Hunter Mahan (-16); 2011: Phil Mickelson (-20); 2010: Anthony Kim (-12).

Cut Line:

• 2020: -+3

Lead Score Progression:

• 2020: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -7; Round 3 -9; Round 4 -13

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Top 10 of my published predictor are Brooks Koepka, Sam Burns, Patrick Reed, Sungjae Im, Seamus Power, marc Leishman, Joaquin Niemann, Cameron Smith, Jason Kokrak and Stephan Jaeger.

Tournament Winners & Prices: 2020: Ortiz 160/1; 2019: Griffin 60/1; 2018: Poulter 100/1; 2017: Henley 40/1; 2016: Herman 400/1; 2015: Holmes 28/1; 2014: Jones 125/1; 2013: Points 250/1; 2012: Mahan 22/1; 2011: Mickelson 18/1; 2010: Kim 25/1. Past 8 Renewals Average: 145/1; Overall Average: 112/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 80. Wind ENE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 81. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind ESE 6-12 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Houston, Texas, is here.

After the blustery and at times strong winds in Bermuda last week, Texas golf is synonymous with windy conditions. But this week in downtown Houston looks calm enough, with forecasts predicting nothing over 10-15 mph throughout the week. October has been relatively dry in this part of the world, and with no precipitation forecast, I’d expect firm enough turf conditions on the fairways, and we will have to wait for the greens – last year they were fast. Temperatures will be pleasant at 23 to 28 degrees Celsius across tournament week.

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends: Analysing the Strokes Gained stats of Memorial Park winners gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2020, Carlos Ortiz (-13). SG Off the Tee: 31st, SG Approach: 14th, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 5th.

Traditional Skill Set Trends: Analysing the final stats of Memorial Park Golf Course winners gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2020, Carlos Ortiz (-13). 312 yards (16th), 50.0% fairways (51st), 70.8% greens in regulation (8th), 36″11″ proximity to hole (19th), 85.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.78 putts per GIR (36th).

So let’s take a view from players as to how Memorial Park sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Carlos Ortiz (2020): “I think the golf course, it’s really easy to get out of position and when you’re there, you have to think two steps ahead, try to put it where worst you’re going to have a good look for par instead of trying to push it, because once you push it with these greens. I don’t know if you guys have seen them, but they’re pretty undulated and they all fall off, so if you start pushing it, it’s easy to hit it or go over or to the side and you’re going to have a hard time putting it again on the green. I think I’ve taken my medicine especially today, and I honestly didn’t hit that many fairways and I still was able to save some good pars thinking that way.”

Jason Day (2020):”Yeah, definitely the back, I feel like the back side’s a little bit tougher. Obviously scoring opportunities, you get two par 5s on the front, a couple shorter holes on the front as well, but if you can try and get yourself at least 1, 2 or 3 under par going through the front side, you can kind of snag maybe one or two and you end up having a pretty decent round. This is very difficult around the greens with that bermudagrass, and the runoffs, they’re very, very inconsistent in regards to bouncing up the slopes. So if you can leave yourself in some decent locations around the greens, you can have a good opportunity at getting up and down pretty easy or you can leave yourself pretty frustrated at the end of the day.”

Brandt Snedeker (2020): “There’s quite a few of them really. You start putting your finger on a few of them. The par-3 15th is going to be really tough by the end of the week. We played it up today, but it’s just a diabolical green so you have to pay attention to that one. No. 13’s another diabolical green, depending on the pin position it can be really tough. Then you have the long holes here, 1’s a long, tough par 4. I think you can just go about every par 4 and they’re all about over 500 yards if they want to be. The Tour did a good job mixing it up today, moved some tees around so didn’t play the full length, which gave us some scoring opportunities. I don’t anticipate that being the case the rest of the week.”

Adam Scott (2020): ” Yeah. I mean, just generally the course is relentless. It’s just demanding off the tee. It requires something long and straight, and then you must hit the green in the right spot, too, especially the 9th hole. Dustin’s ball was on the green for a good 10 seconds today and ended up in the water, so you have to be very precise on some of them. The challenge is all around the greens, the course is still kind of growing in and that’s making it very difficult from down in the low areas around the greens. You know, you just have to get a little bit creative this week and somehow get it up on the green and try and save your par.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 11 Houston Open winners:

• 2020 – Carlos Ortiz: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2019 – Lanto Griffin: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 17th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2018 – Ian Poulter: Round 1: 123rd, Round 2: 23rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2017 – Russell Henley: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2016 – Jim Herman: Round 1: 32nd, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2015 – J.B. Holmes: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 18th.
• 2014 – Matt Jones: Round 1: 18th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 4th.
• 2013 – D.A. Points: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2012 – Hunter Mahan: Round 1: 27th, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2011 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 33rd, Round 2: 21st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Anthony Kim: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2 4th, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the last 11 Houston winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

• 2020 – Carlos Ortiz: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2019 – Lanto Griffin: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2018 – Ian Poulter: Round 1: 9 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: level.
• 2017 – Russell Henley: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2016 – Jim Herman: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: level.
• 2015 – J.B. Holmes: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 6 back.
• 2014 – Matt Jones: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 6 back.
• 2013 – D.A. Points: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2012 – Hunter Mahan: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2011 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: level.
• 2010 – Anthony Kim: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: level.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Carlos Ortiz: 35th ZOZO/48th CJ Cup/MC Shriners/MC Sanderson.
• Lanto Griffin: 18th Shriners/17th Safeway/11th Sanderson/13th Greenbrier.
• Ian Poulter: QF WMP/41st Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/MC PGA National.
• Russell Henley: 45th Bay Hill/9th Copperhead/43rd PGA National/16th TPC Scottsdale.
• Jim Herman: 63rd Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/MC PGA National/17th Pebble/MC TPC Scottsdale.
• J.B. Holmes: MC Bay Hill/2nd Doral/22nd Riviera/10th Pebble/2nd Torrey Pines.
• Matt Jones: 14th Bay Hill/MC Puerto Rico/MC PGA National/59th Riviera/45th Pebble.
• D.A. Points: MC Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/MC Puerto Rico/68th PGA National.
• Hunter Mahan: 42nd Bay Hill/24th Doral/1st WMP/24th Riviera/13th Pebble.
• Phil Mickelson: 24th Bay Hill/55th Doral/17th WMP/35th Riviera/9th Pebble.
• Anthony Kim: 22nd Doral/2nd PGA National/24th TPC Scottsdale/52nd Riviera.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave (where applicable) and winning score since 2010. For full first round leader stats click here.

• 2020 – Snedeker – PM -5/65  – 90/1
• 2019 – Cook/Gooch – Both AM -8/64 – 66/1 & 90/1
• 2018 – Dunne – PM -8/64  – 90/1
• 2017 – Fowler – AM  -8/64 – 25/1
• 2016 – Hoffman – PM -8/64.
• 2015 – Piercy – AM -9/63.
• 2014 – Haas/Hoffman – Both PM -7/65.
• 2013 – Points – AM -8/64.
• 2012 – Cabrera / Mickelson / Pettersson – 2AM/1PM Split -7/65.
• 2011 – Walker – PM -9/63.
• 2010 – Percy / Stadler – AM/PM Split -5/67.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Jason Day, Brian Gay, Bill Haas, Zach Johnson, Patrick Reed.
• 3 – Ryan Palmer, Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Stenson, Camilo Villegas.
• 2 – Sam Burns, Jason Dufner, Russell Henley, Brooks Koepka, Marc Leishman, Scott Piercy, Adam Scott, Cameron Smith, Robert Streb, Jimmy Walker.
• 1 – Stewart Cink, Tyler Duncan, Branden Grace, Lanto Griffin, James Hahn, Tyrrell Hatton, Jim Herman, Mackenzie Hughes, Sungjae Im, Sung Kang, Martin Laird, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Graeme McDowell, Keith Mitchell, Francesco Molinari, Sebastian Munoz, Seung-yul Noh, Carlos Ortiz, C.T. Pan, Pat Perez, J.T. Poston, Scott Stallings, Kevin Streelman, Brian Stuard, Hudson Swafford, Nick Taylor, Jhonattan Vegas, Nick Watney, Lee Westwood, Aaron Wise, Gary Woodland.

Points of note: other current PGA Tour stop-offs with MiniVerde Bermudagrass greens include TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic of New Orleans) and East Lake (Tour Championship). The old host course here, namely the GC of Houston (Redstone GC as was), also featured them – although they were overseeded in April. TPC Sawgrass, home of the Players Championship, featured MiniVerde Bermudagrass prior to 2017, as did Quail Hollow at the 2014 through 2016.

2020 saw Memorial Park play firm and fast for the opening 54 holes. A rarity on the PGA Tour!  Whether that was a deliberate ploy with The Masters Tournament the week after we will never know, but this course in that guise gave the players plenty to think about. Indeed -9 was leading going into Sunday.

My selections are as follows:

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 18:30GMT 8.11.21 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.