Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Husqvana British Masters Tips 2026

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The Belfry and Sir Nick Faldo host the British Masters once again this week and England’s Tyrrell Hatton has made a rare visit home for a regulation DP World Tour event to bolster this week’s field and head the market this week at a general 12/1.

In what’s a distinctly improved field over last week’s Nexo Championship, we also have Race to Dubai leader Patrick Reed in attendance alongside the likes of Matt Wallace, Keita Nakajima, Harry Hall and Marco Penge as the Tour heads towards some of its strongest events of the year.

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Course Overview. The Brabazon Course at The Belfry is no stranger to the circuit with a number of events having been hosted here since the turn of the century, however prior to the 2020 ISPS Handa UK Championship won by Rasmus Hojgaard, 2008 was the last time that we saw the Peter Alliss and Dave Thomas design in competitive action at this level. 4 Ryder Cups have also been played around these parts, the most recent of which was team Europe’s win in 2002.

Parkland in style with water in play on half of the holes, the track measures 7,363 yards for its par of 72. 12 par-4s instead of the more typical 10 means that there are just 3 each of the par-3s and par-5s, however scoring on those longer holes at 538, 566 and 564 yards for the 3rd, 15th and 17th respectively is an important part of compiling a competitive score here.

Historically the fairways here have been narrow and the rough lush, however the Bent/Poa greens are of excellent quality giving a little respite to those who are less adept on and around the putting surfaces.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who might go well this week.

Course stats include the various events that have been played here at The Belfry since 2000: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

British Masters – Event Winners & Prices. 2025: Alex Noren, 18/1; 2024: Niklas Norgaard, 50/1; 2023: Daniel Hillier, 90/1; 2022: Thorbjorn Olesen, 75/1; 2021: Richard Bland, 150/1; 2020: Renato Paratore, 50/1; 2019: Marcus Kinhult, 175/1; 2018: Eddie Pepperell, 30/1; 2017: Paul Dunne, 66/1; 2016: Alex Noren, 18/1; 2015: Matt Fitzpatrick, 33/1.

Course Winners. 2025: Alex Noren, -16, 2024: Niklas Norgaard, -16; 2023: Daniel Hillier, -10; 2022: Thorbjorn Olesen, -10; 2021: Richard Bland, -13; 2020: Rasmus Hojgaard, -14; 2008: Gonzalo Fdez-Castano, -12; 2007: Lee Westwood, -15; 2006: Johan Edfors, -11; 2003: Paul Casey, -11; 2002: Angel Cabrera, -10; 2001, Henrik Stenson, -13; 2000: Jose Maria Olazabal, -13.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

England has been very dry so far this summer and even a little rain pre-event – and more possible during the course of the tournament – is unlikely to make much of a dent in the firm conditions underfoot. Thursday looks the day most likely to provide any significant precipitation, with thunderstorms possible before a more showery picture emerges for the final three days. Wind will be generally around 10mph with temperatures in the low 70s Fahrenheit.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors.

Analysing the final stats of the six winners here at The Belfry in recent years gives us a little more insight into the skill-sets required:

  • 2025, Alex Noren (-16). 300 yards (30th), 64.4% fairways (6th), 72.2% greens in regulation (10th), 66.7% scrambling (25th), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2024, Niklas Norgaard (-16). 329 yards (1st), 48.3% fairways (4th), 76.4% greens in regulation (4th), 58.8% scrambling (25th), 1.75 putts per GIR (25th).
  • 2023, Daniel Hillier (-10). 315 yards (4th), 51.7% fairways (20th), 69.4% greens in regulation (20th), 72.7% scrambling (5th), 1.76 putts per GIR (31st).
  • 2022, Thorbjorn Olesen (-10). 293 yards (17th), 38.3% fairways (67th), 57.0% greens in regulation (60th), 74.2% scrambling (4th), 1.67 putts per GIR (7th).
  • 2021, Richard Bland (-13). 272 yards (52nd), 78.3% fairways (1st), 82.0% greens in regulation (2nd), 92.3% scrambling (1st), 1.78 putts per GIR (48th).
  • 2020, Rasmus Hojgaard (-14). 304 yards (9th), 48.3% fairways (40th), 75% greens in regulation (6th), 55.6% scrambling (36th), 1.65 putts per GIR (1st).

Looking at the list of players who’ve succeeded around the Brabazon course here at The Belfry historically, it’s fair to say that generally better Total Driving and Ball-Striking has been the key to success. Alex Noren was another case in point last year, ranking 9th for Total Driving courtesy of some relatively accurate 300 yard drives.

The greens here are generally easy to read and favour those players who might otherwise struggle on the putting surfaces, and again that’s reinforced when you see a list of names including Lee Westwood, Paul Casey and Henrik Stenson all having won here, however finding and holding greens isn’t always easy when conditions are firm.

Strokes Gained: Our winners here have excelled in different Strokes Gained categories over the past 6 years to suggest that there are various ways to succeed around these parts, although putting has been far more prominent lately:

  • 2025: Alex Noren: T: 17th; A: 13th; T2G: 13th; ATG: 32nd; P: 1st
  • 2024: Niklas Norgaard: T: 1st; A: 27th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 21st; P: 7th
  • 2023: Daniel Hillier: T: 25th; A: 11th; T2G: 16st; ATG: 58th; P: 2nd
  • 2022: Thorbjorn Olesen: T: 64th; A: 9th; T2G: 31st; ATG: 31st; P: 2nd
  • 2021: Richard Bland: T: 18th; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 37th; P: 55th
  • 2020: Rasmus Hojgaard: T: 11th; A: 4th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 38th; P: 20th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Since the British Masters was re-established in 2015, the four winners prior to Marcus Kinhult – Eddie Pepperell, Paul Dunne, Alex Noren and Matt Fitzpatrick – had each shown some decent enough form in the weeks prior to their victory. Marcus Kinhult was far more difficult to find as he’d missed each of his previous 4 cuts, shooting 80 on his previous competitive round before opening with a 65 at Hillside and hardly looking back.

Eddie Pepperell had recorded 5 top-10 finishes in his previous 8 starts, 2 of which were runner-up finishes at the Scottish Open and Portugal Masters. Paul Dunne had produced two top-15 finishes in his previous three strokeplay events and after a shaky 74 to start on his most recent start in Holland, nobody in the field bettered his final 3-round total. For Noren this was the third of four 2016 victories and he was clearly in exceptional form overall, whereas for Fitzpatrick his win at Woburn marked his maiden success on the European Tour, however with four top-3 finishes in his previous 11 events he was clearly knocking very loudly on the door.

2020 winner Renato Paratore secured his second European Tour title at Close House off the back of a 15th place finish in Austria a fortnight before, which was his only start since lockdown had eased. The Italian sat 2nd at the halfway point at Diamond Country Club and had also been prominent in Saudi and Abu Dhabi in strong fields earlier in the year.

Richard Bland’s fairytale win in 2021, on the 478th time of asking as a professional, wasn’t completely out of the blue either as he’d finished runner-up at Leopard Creek the previous November and had recorded a top-10 finish in Gran Canaria as recently as 3 weeks prior.

2022 winner Thorbjorn Olesen broke a 4-year drought when he fended off Sebastian Soderberg courtesy of some late putting heroics, however there had been signs that he was finding his game once again, recording a top 10 finish in Dubai in the late autumn before finishing 12th in Qatar where only a 3rd round 76 stopped him from seriously contending.

Daniel Hillier had undoubtedly been trending ahead of his maiden DP World Tour victory in 2023. 5th at the KLM Open and 3rd the week before at the BMW International Open was form for everyone to see, and he duly stepped up to the plate here with a closing round of 66.

Niklas Norgaard secured his maiden DP World Tour title here 2 years ago having shown significant promise at the start of the summer with 2nd at the Soudal Open and 4th at the European Open. The Dane was trending heading into this, having finished 53rd and 27th on his previous two outings.

And to bring us fully up to date, last year’s winner Alex Noren arrived off the back of dramatically improving form in the US, finishing 7th at the 3M Open and 3rd at the Wyndham Championship before taking out the title here 12 months ago:

  • 2024, Alex Noren: 9/30/12/51/17/39/MC/30/MC/MC/7/3
  • 2023, Daniel Hillier: 42/MC/51/MC/12/23/MC/MC/MC/5/MC/3
  • 2022, Thorbjorn Olesen: MC/MC/20/41/8/42/35/MC/MC/12/23/33
  • 2021, Richard Bland: 16/7/2/40/35/MC/52/MC/MC/8/MC/27
  • 2020, Renato Paratore: 48/40/21/36/19/2/21/MC/27/74/47/15
  • 2019, Marcus Kinhult: 22/30/71/22/20/MC/MC/18/MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2018, Eddie Pepperell: 43/51/DQ/MC/2/6/59/9/56/6/2/44
  • 2017, Paul Dunne: 33/30/MC/MC/13/54/26/MC/9/14/70/14
  • 2016, Alex Noren: MC/43/12/MC/8/1/46/49/2/1/34/11
  • 2015, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/3/MC/MC/77/2/17/44/3/30/3/MC

As an additional angle, we can also look at Rasmus Hojgaard’s win here at The Belfry at the 2020 UK Championship:

  • 2020, Rasmus Hojgaard: 13/49/1/MC/MC/MC/MC/6/MC/2/6/3

The young Dane was a fairly obvious winner with incoming form of 2/6/3 over his past 3 starts and justified his 14/1 quotes in the end via a play-off.

Course Form:

Aside from Angel Cabrera, our course winners here had patchy history at best at The Belfry prior to lifting their respective trophies:

  • 2025: Alex Noren: MC/MC/13
  • 2024: Niklas Norgaard: 43/7
  • 2023: Daniel Hillier: Debut
  • 2022: Thorbjorn Olesen: 17/57
  • 2021: Richard Bland: 46/31/MC/MC/19
  • 2020: Rasmus Hojgaard: Debut
  • 2008: Gonzalo Fdez Castano: 14/57
  • 2007: Lee Westwood: 54/57/MC/27/MC
  • 2006: Johan Edfors: Debut
  • 2003: Paul Casey: 12/MC
  • 2002: Angel Cabrera: 9/2
  • 2001, Henrik Stenson: Debut
  • 2000: Jose Maria Olazabal: Debut

For me, the Belfry is a good test of golf and scoring isn’t likely to get out of control, despite a calm enough weather forecast. Historically straightforward greens of excellent quality will encourage birdies though to those who can keep the ball in play, and overall I’d favour those who can gain most of their strokes from their long game rather than solely with a red-hot putter.

My selections are as follows:

Matt Wallace 3pts EW 16/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

The blueprint for last year’s winner Alex Noren was some improving PGA Tour form coupled with a return to the Belfry where he’d shown a little promise in the past, and Matt Wallace boasts almost identical credentials here this week which makes him the pick of the market leaders for me.

Noren arrived here 12 months ago off the back of 7th and 3rd place finishes at the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship respectively, so Wallace’s 5th at the Rocket Classic and 7th at the Wyndham correlates nicely. The Swede had also finished 13th at The Belfry on his previous attempt having led at the halfway point, so the Englishman’s record of 19th (2020 UK Championship), 8th, and 33rd should be taken as a positive, particularly as he was in the mix throughout here last year before slumping to a final round 77.

The case for Matt improves further when you consider how well he’s been striking the ball lately. 33rd at the John Deere Classic saw the 36 year-old rank 3rd for SG Approach, and he put on a similar display last time out at Sedgefield, ranking 4th on that count whilst also gaining over 10 strokes from tee-to-green to rank 2nd on that metric on the week.

Two of Matt’s five DP World Tour titles have come at the start of September, plus he’ll be massively motivated to get his Ryder Cup qualification campaign off to a strong start with the year-long process beginning here this week.

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Keita Nakajima 2pts EW 22/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

Another player who’s returned recently from the PGA Tour and could take advantage of what is ultimately a lower grade is Keita Nakajima, and he deserves to be supported this week after a solid 4th place finish last week in Aberdeen.

The Japanese star will no doubt return to the US for some of the Fall Series events to see if he can improve his 115th ranking on the points list over there, but in the meantime a second DP World Tour title wouldn’t be bad for morale I’m sure. 13th at the Myrtle Beach Classic, 20th at the Canadian Open, and 20th at the Rocket Classic earlier this month are the 26 year-old’s best results across the Atlantic in his rookie campaign, however it’s his 3rd place finish at the co-sanctioned Scottish Open which has made the biggest impact to his rankings and chances of retaining his PGA Tour card for 2027.

It was the putter which did the damage for Keita at Renaissance, however his return to Scottish soil last week was fuelled by gaining nearly 14 strokes from tee-to-green on the week, ranking 2nd in that category, and that’s encouragement enough for me on his return to The Belfry where a repeat performance should set him in good stead.

Nakajima’s played the Brabazon twice competitively, improving from a debut 33rd to 4th last year where he was Strokes Gained positive in every category, and this week sets up beautifully for another assault on the title.

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Marcus Helligkilde 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

With two relatively short players backed, I’ll add just one more who’s caught the eye recently with his long game performance in the shape of Marcus Helligkilde, and perhaps he can take some inspiration from compatriot Jeff Winther’s win a fortnight ago and secure a maiden DP World Tour title this week.

Rehabilitation from a neck injury has been a long and painful road for the Dane – indeed his 14th place finish at the Nordic Golf League’s Sand Valley Open in April was the 29 year-old’s first start for nearly two years, having feared at one point that his career might be over. Patience in his recovery may prove to pay off in the long run now as the Copenhagen resident believes he’s fitter and strong now than before his ailments, and as he approaches his 30th birthday in a few weeks’ time perhaps that will give him a new perspective on this next stage of his career.

Certainly we’ve seen some positive signs as Marcus has got back up to speed playing on his DP World Tour membership extension, although it’s not all been plain sailing. 14th at the KLM Open halted a run of four missed cuts, with 9th for SG Off the Tee, 4th for SG Approach and 2nd for SG Tee to Green catching the eye. 15th at the co-sanctioned Corales Championship was positive experience over in the US, and he followed that up with 7th last time out on home soil behind Winther at the Danish Golf Championship.

Helligkilde has played here once in 2023, finishing down the field after a bright start where he was 8th after the opening day. He was in contention for the first three days at Wentworth later that year, leading after the first round and sitting 8th heading into Sunday before falling away – perhaps with his fitness restored he can stick around to the end this time if he finds himself in position.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:30BST 24.8.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.