ISPS World Invitational Tips

A weak event has produced a fairly unappetising betting heat with Jordan Smith the clear favourite, despite missing the cut from the top of the market last week and seemingly a long way behind the consistent, contending form that we saw from him in the spring. In particular, the Englishman’s driving is a fair way off of his best right now, and I can overlook him this week.

I backed John Catlin here 12 months ago and he contrived to turn a potentially winning position into a tie for 7^th with a 3-over final 9 on Sunday, however he was almost twice the price last year and coming in off of a better showing the week before, with last week’s tie for 54^th and a closing 76 offering little in the way of encouragement.

The first player to really peak my interest is David Law. 43^rd last week at Celtic Manor was fairly in keeping with his previous performances in the south of Wales on a course that’s never really suited his eye; that came hot on the heels of a contending 3^rd place finish at Fairmont St Andrews the previous week, and he can be forgiven for last week’s effort given that the dimensions of Galgorm Castle and Massereene should suit the Scot a lot better. 4^th at the Irish Open last month is also positive form on the parkland layout at Mount Juliet and he can be fancied to go well this week in my view.

8^th and 9^th here at Galgorm Castle in 2015 and 2017 respectively on the Challenge Tour signalled a liking for the course and 35^th here in 2020 – his best result for that season to date in what was otherwise a poor year – and 15^th last year does little to put me off in the this low grade. 1^st for Driving Accuracy here 12 months ago suggests that he’s got the measure of the course from off the tee, and 11^th for Scrambling is also noteworthy given the metrics I ran through in the preamble. RESULT: MDF

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If short, accurate and a decent short game worked for John Catlin and Daniel Gavins here over the past couple of years, then perhaps David Horsey can join the same club.

Always one of the more accurate types suited to shorter, more strategic setups, the 37 year-old hoovered up 4 titles between 2010 and 2015, all between 13- and 18-under par, which feels very much in keeping with what we should expect this week, and with Richie Ramsay breaking his 7-year losing streak in recent weeks, perhaps the Englishman can follow suit.

Certainly last year’s effort here offers some support to the case for Horsey making a comeback this week. After a poor season with nothing better than a 12^th place finish on his record and arriving in Northern Ireland off the back of 3 straight missed cuts, Horsey went on to produce rounds of 67, 65 and 64 to sit in 2^nd place heading into Sunday, which is where he ultimately finished after a closing round of 72.

This year’s incoming form is undoubtedly a little brighter, and he’s been far more upbeat about the state of his game in recent weeks on social media. 5^th at the Kenya Open earlier in the year was positive and in recent weeks he was 9^th heading into the weekend at the Cazoo Classic at Hillside, then finished 30^th overall at the Hero Open on his last start. 5^th and 11^th for Driving Accuracy those weeks tells us that he’s back approaching his best from off the tee, and 11^th for Scrambling last time out at Fairmont St Andrews is a good sign that his short game is in a good place right now.

The danger as ever is that he could tighten up on Sunday should he find himself in contention, however perhaps he can take inspiration from some of those winning recently such as Sean Crocker, Tony Finau (twice) and even Callum Shinkwin last week, who have each had their share of Sunday issues in the past. RESULT: MDF

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Another ticking the neat and tidy box is Dale Whitnell who’s still seeking his first DP World Tour title, having won a total of 9 times as a professional at lower levels.

Bogey avoidance rather than birdie making tends to be the 33 year-old’s game and although that’s not going to fill a cupboard with trophies at the higher levels, on the right course and in the right conditions that combination can work – given the winning totals of -13 and -10 we’ve seen here over the past 2 years, this test should suit.

Actually we have some evidence that Galgorm Castle is compatible with the Colchester man as he finished 11^th here last year with 4 rounds in the 60s, improving on 39^th at the previous year’s Irish Open and a missed cut the year before on his Challenge Tour course debut. 2^nd for Driving Accuracy and 6^th for Scrambling 12 months ago is the kind of stats I’d like to see for any of my players this week, and save for a stone cold putter last year he could have gone close to winning his maiden title at this level. The closest he’s got so far on Tour is 4^th: a distant effort at Leopard Creek back in 2009, plus two more recent outings at Close House in 2020 and at Mount Juliet last year. Those two latter performances offer encouragement given this week’s course and a weak field.

16^th at Mount Juliet again last month was solid, ranking 10^th for SG Tee to Green and 2^nd for SG Around the Green; 18^th last week was also quietly competent with each of his SG long game performance stats in the top 16 in the field on the week. Perhaps he can push on from that effort and record a personal best on Tour by seriously contending here this week in Northern Ireland. RESULT: T28

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Finally I’ll take a chance on promising young Irishman John Murphy who could readily step up from Challenge Tour level, buoyed from having recorded his lowest professional round last week. A third round 62 at the Finnish Challenge powered the 23 year-old to second successive 3^rd place finish on the second tier, having finished in the same position the previous week on home soil at the Irish Challenge at the K-Club’s South course.

Still relatively inexperienced with just 34 starts to his name thus far, when we’ve seen him in action at the upper level he’s shown some potential, notably finishing 24^th at last year’s Spanish Open before recording another 3^rd place finish on the Challenge Tour the week afterwards. His 9^th place finish at last year’s Dunhill Links is the standout piece of form though, which saw the Kinsale man enter the final day in a tie for 2^nd place in far stronger company than this, playing alongside eventual winner Danny Willett. It wasn’t to be for Murphy of course, however that’s useful experience to take forward as his career progresses.

That effort was links golf at the Home of Golf and this is parkland at Galgorm, however he’s shown aptitude on the latter, winning by 4 strokes at the 2021 Northern Ireland Open at Cairndhu Golf Club, and John will have played a mix of both styles of courses over his formative years so we shouldn’t be pigeon-holing him as a links specialist or otherwise just yet.

That victory earned Murphy a spot in the field here last year, and although he didn’t make the weekend rounds of 70/72 weren’t disastrous – with a further year’s worth of golf under his belt, perhaps he’ll build on his strong recent form and contend here this week. RESULT: MDF

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