Italian Open Tips 2019

It may well be a ball-striking masterclass at the top of the final leaderboard on Sunday with Paul Casey and Justin Rose heading the betting at 9/1 and 12/1 respectively at the time of writing, however Francesco Molinari could be the man lifting the Italian Open trophy for a 3^rd time this week in Rome.

Rose hasn’t played this event since missing the cut here in 2002, and for Casey it’s his event debut, and although both must be respected, Molinari has a wealth of experience in his homeland and aside from his two wins in 2006 and 2016, he’s also amassed a further 5 top-10 and 5 top-20 finishes in his home Open over the years. 23^rd here at Olgiata as a fresh-faced 19 year-old amateur was impressive and 17 years down the line he has all the tools to complete his personal hat-trick of titles on this classical, tree-lined course that plays to his strengths.

Since winning his maiden Major Championship at Carnoustie last year, it’s not all been plain sailing for the 36 year old. After the inevitable dip in form following his Open triumph, it looked like the Turin man was ready to tackle the world’s best once again earlier this year with victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a semi-final finish at the WGC Match Play which teed him up beautifully for an assault on The Masters. Leading after 54 holes at Augusta and still looking good as he reached the 12^th hole, he eventually succumbed to the Tiger Woods-induced pressure and drifted to 5^th place overall.

In truth it’s been a bit of a struggle for Francesco since that point, however with 6 months’ worth of water under the bridge and a return home where he’ll have unrivalled support, repeating what we saw Jon Rahm do last week in his home Open isn’t out of the question by any means, particularly as there have been tangible signs of positivity in his game of late.

11^th at the Open in July was a creditable defence given that he’d opened with a poor round of 74, and more recent efforts of 14^th at Wentworth and 23^rd at the Safeway Open on the PGA Tour, where he sat 3^rd after the first round and 10^th heading into the weekend, suggest to me that his game’s not that far away. Paradoxically for a player who’s ordinarily so strong from tee-to-green, it’s been the putter that’s fuelled the improvement over his last 2 starts; if he can rekindle his long game excellence on home soil this week then he’ll take all the beating in front of an adoring home crowd. Result: MC

In terms of ticking boxes, Joost Luiten has just about everything I’m looking for this week. The 33 year-old’s tee-to-green game has been sublime since returning to action following a post-Open Championship break: field rankings of 1/17/1/4/1 for Greens In Regulation over his past 5 starts bodes well for finding these small, undulating greens in the requisite number and Driving Accuracy rankings of 41/12/5/33/3 during that same period suggests that he’s likely to keep himself out of the worst of the tree trouble from off the tee. Classical, tree-lined tracks are a strength for the Dutchman – twice a runner-up at Valderrama in his last 4 starts there are a case in point – and bent-based putting surfaces have brought the best out of his flat stick over the years.

Italian Open form of 2 top-5 finishes from 6 career starts at the event’s various venues aligns quite nicely with recent winners of this title and a further pair of top-3 finishes in the country from his Challenge Tour days also demonstrates a level of competence and confidence on Italian soil. A stretch of 6 consecutive weekends made shows a level of consistency in his game, included in which was his best finish for 4 months when recording a 10^th place finish at the KLM Open, and he was 5^th after day 1 on his penultimate start at Wentworth in a classy field on a similar track.

As ever with Joost, what holds him back is the putting. For a man with his ball-striking prowess, shaving even a tenth off of his putting average would reap many rewards and it may just be that he’s taken a positive step in that regard. A switch of putter and a change of grip to make his right hand less dominant saw an instant improvement on his last start at St Andrews and a surge of confidence in making mid-range putts which he can take forward as this season draws to a close. 3^rd at the season’s first Rolex Series event in Abu Dhabi tells us that this level of competition is within his comfort zone and I can see him going very well here in Rome. Result: T25

A couple of longshots to complete this week’s team. First up Ashley Chesters who has the tee-to-green game to master this tree-lined layout and who’s impressed in recent outings, despite missing the cut on his last start at the Dunhill Links which I’m more than happy to disregard.

4^th at Valderrama almost a year ago still ranks as the Englishman’s best regular European Tour career finish and his metronomic tee-to-green game is undoubtedly suited to those courses that demand accuracy over power or short game wizardry. A tailed-off 72^nd place finish at Crans last month masks the fact that he led the field for Driving Accuracy and he repeated that feat a couple of starts later when finishing 15^th at the KLM Open. 9^th at the Porsche European Open and 21^st at Wentworth sandwiched that effort and on each occasion his long game looked in rude health, however more importantly for him his putter also started to look promising with 3 consecutive top-15 putting average efforts in succession.

The final part to the jigsaw that sees the 30 year-old push from solid top-20 type finishes to each-way payouts could be the size of the greens here in Rome. The Shrewsbury man’s chipping game has been the weakest element of his game of late, however when he finished 4^th at the aforementioned Andalucía Masters last year he ranked 8^th for scrambling around those tiny Valderrama greens. Perhaps visually this will suit him better as and when he does miss putting surfaces, allowing him to salvage par more readily; however the key for Ashley to contend this week will be for him to stick to his game plan on a course that plays to his strengths. Result: T66

Finally I’ll close with another long price about 2-time European Tour winner Fabrizio Zanotti who’s hinted at some form on his last 2 starts after a mid-season lull. There are plenty of Tour maidens and players with inferior games than the Paraguayan on this type of tree-lined test and I’m happy to take the bookies on here given the price on offer.

To be fair to the 36 year-old, 2019 started off in fine style with 3 consecutive top-32 finishes in the Middle East, courtesy of some solid form from off the tee, before he finished a shot behind Kurt Kitayama at the Oman Open. 11^th in Qatar and 7^th in Malaysia followed as it looked like a 3^rd piece of silverware was imminent, however that’s where the good form ended as his long game slowly fell away. Interesting then that after 4 straight missed cuts in September he finally found something with the driver at St Andrews, ranking 2^nd for Driving Accuracy on his way to 46^th place overall, which clearly boosted his confidence enough to produce a 12^th place finish last week in Spain with a Total Driving rank of 5^th and Ball Striking rank of 4^th.

That effort on last week’s test adds to tree-lined form that includes 7^th and 15^th at Wentworth in 2016 and 2018 respectively, plus 2^nd behind Matt Fitzpatrick at Woburn in 2015. In short, when he’s striking the ball well from off the tee, these types of layout suit him nicely. 3^rd in this event back in 2015 also bodes well and, at 68^th on the Race To Dubai, this is a huge opportunity for Fabrizio to book his place at the big money events that will close the European Tour season over the next few weeks. Result: MC