You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for the John Deere Classic at bet365 News.
Course Guide: TPC Deere Run is a drag-strip of a Par 71 where you’d better make birdies or pack your bags come Friday evening. Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Ryan Moore, J.T. Poston, Sepp Straka and Davis Thompson all managed an eagle or 3 (always a bonus) and 19-22 birdies respectively when winning here, whilst Brian Campbell, Davis Thompson, Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli, Michael Kim, Bryson DeChambeau, Zach Johnson and Spieth again made 22, 30, 24, 22, 30, 24, 24 and 25 birdies respectively when enjoying their successes since 2012. A minimum 30% birdie or better conversion is traditionally required to get the job done at the John Deere Classic with the course giving chances to both the shortest and longest players. It’s also abundantly clear that the tournament eventually boils down to a wedge and putting contest.
TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois: Designer: D.A. Weibring 1999, with PGA Tour Design renovation 2006/07; Course Type: Parkland, Resort, Short; Par: 71; Length: 7,327 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 3; Number of Sand Bunkers: 76; Acres of Fairway: 28; Fairways: Southshore Bentgrass; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with Fine Fescue 4″; Greens: 5,500 sq.ft average featuring L-93 Bentgrass; Stimpmeter: 11ft.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Deere Run and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
- TPC Deere Run: 36 yards at 300 yards.
- TPC River Highlands: 29 yards at 300 yards.
- Shinnecock Hills: 45 yards at 300 yards.
- TPC Toronto: 35-37 yards at 300 yards.
- Muirfield Village: 24 yards at 300 yards.
- Colonial: 25-30 yards at 300 yards.
- TPC Craig Ranch: 25-28 yards.
- Aronimink: 30 yards.
- Quail Hollow: 28 yards.
- Blue Monster, Doral: 25-40 yards.
- Harbour Town: 22-25 yards.
- Augusta National: Average 50 yards.
- Oaks Course: 25-30 yards.
- Memorial Park: 30–40 yards.
- Copperhead: Average 20 yards.
- TPC Sawgrass: Average 28 yards.
- Bay Hill: Average 30 yards.
- PGA National: Average 28 yards.
- Riviera: Average 27 yards.
- Pebble Beach: Average 30-33 yards. Spyglass Hill: 25-30 yards.
- TPC Scottsdale: Average 38 yards.
- Torrey Pines South: Average 24-27 yards. Torrey Pines North: Average 24-27 yards.
- Pete Dye Stadium: Average 33 yards.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
- 2025: 69.44 (-1.56), Rank 34 of 50 courses
- 2024: 68.78 (-2.22), Rank 50 of 51 courses
- 2023: 69.47 (-1.53), Rank 38 of 49 courses
- 2022: 69.88 (-1.12), Rank 34 of 50 courses
- 2021: 69.51 (-1.49), Rank 41 of 51 courses
- 2019: 69.51 (-1.49), Rank 35 of 49 courses
- 2018: 69.38 (-1.62), Rank 46 of 51 courses
Course Overview: TPC Deere Run is a course that’s extremely scoreable for those players who love to manage their way strategically around a golf course rather than dominate it. With fairways that are easy to hit and receptive 6,000 sq.ft average sized Bentgrass green complexes to aim at, scoring is correspondingly low. Deere Run is a course that offers up opportunities for bombers like Jhonattan Vegas, Patrick Rodgers, Bryson DeChambeau, Chris Gotterup, Luke Clanton, Michael Thorbjornsen and last year Kurt Kitayama. Conversely plotters like Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore, J.T Poston, Sepp Straka and Brian Campbell. The key this week will ultimately be top notch approach play, a hot putter, and minimising bogeys which is always the case on resort-level scoring tests.
Post-cut scoring increases slightly with more difficult pin positions and those with prior knowledge of this event know where those weekend holes will be cut and, more importantly, where to position off the tee to access them. Saying that both Sean O’Hair (2005) and Dylan Frittelli (2019) won this on course debut.
TPC Deere Run is a track that rewards consistency as bogeys in any great volume will cost a player any chance of victory. Fairways are wide for the length of course and 2 of the par-5s (2nd and 17th) are reachable for the whole field. As you’d expect, green complexes run pure and aren’t overly taxing. The tournament tends to be won by excellent putters who can find enough greens and hit the ball close enough to the pin so as to create enough birdie chances. Saying that, ball-striker extraordinaire Bryson DeChambeau won this in 2017, entering the tournament ranked 195th in Strokes Gained Putting, whilst you would also place Lucas Glover in the ball-striker over short game specialist, so it’s as long as it’s short, as you would expect at a resort scoring test.
Another angle to explore this week is to find players who are comfortable on par-3s as TPC Deere Run’s set of short holes yields plenty of birdies each and every renewal.
2026 sees the course extended by 38 yards with the par-4 4th Hole extended from 454 yards to 492 yards.
John Deere Classic Winners: 2025: Brian Campbell (-18); 2024: Davis Thompson (-28); 2023: Sepp Straka (-21); 2022: J.T. Poston (-21); 2021: Lucas Glover (-19); 2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21); 2018: Michael Kim (-27); 2017: Bryson DeChambeau (-18); 2016: Ryan Moore (-22); 2015: Jordan Spieth (-20); 2014: Brian Harman (-22); 2013: Jordan Spieth (-19); 2012: Zach Johnson (-20); 2011: Steve Stricker (-22); 2010: Steve Stricker (-26).
- 2025: Brian Campbell 65-66-68-67 -18/266 PM/AM Wave
- 2024: Davis Thompson 63-67-62-64 -28/256 PM/AM Wave
- 2023: Sepp Straka 73-63-65-62 -21/263 PM/AM Wave
- 2022: J.T. Poston 62-65-67-69 -21/263 AM/PM Wave
- 2021: Lucas Glover 68-63-70-64 -19/265 AM/PM Wave
- 2019: Dylan Frittelli 66-68-65-64 -21/263 AM/PM Wave
- 2018: Michael Kim 63-64-64-66 -27/257 AM/PM Wave
OWGR of John Deere Classic Winners: 2025: Campbell 115; 2024: D Thompson 70; 2023: Straka 37; 2022: Poston 99; 2021: Glover 115; 2019: Frittelli 133; 2018: M Kim 473.
Datagolf Ranking John Deere Classic Winners: 2025: Campbell 166; 2024: D Thompson 37; 2023: Straka 93; 2022: Poston 80; 2021: Glover 89.
John Deere Classic Cut Line: 2025: -5; 2024: -5; 2023: -4; 2022: -3; 2021: -4; 2019: -3; 2018: -3.
Lead Score Progression:
- 2025: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -18.
- 2024: Round 1 -12; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -21; Round 4 -28.
- 2023: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -21.
- 2022: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -15; Round 3 -19; Round 4 -21.
- 2021: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -19.
- 2019: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -21.
- 2018: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -15; Round 3 -22; Round 4 -27.
Path to Victory: Below are the round positions for the winners of the John Deere Classic since 2010:
- 2025 – Brian Campbell: Round 1: 8th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
- 2024 – Davis Thompson: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2023 – Sepp Straka: Round 1: 133rd, Round 2: 29th, Round 3: 14th.
- 2022 – J.T. Poston: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2021 – Lucas Glover: Round 1: 29th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 12th.
- 2019 – Dylan Frittelli: Round 1: 10th, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 5th.
- 2018 – Michael Kim: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2017 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 8th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 5th.
- 2016 – Ryan Moore: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2015 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 101st, Round 2: 16th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2014 – Brian Harman: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
- 2013 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 64th, Round 2: 19th, Round 3: 9th.
- 2012 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 39th, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 3rd.
- 2011 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
- 2010 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the John Deere Classic winners since 2010 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
- 2025 – Brian Campbell: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 back.
- 2024 – Davis Thompson: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
- 2023 – Sepp Straka: Round 1: 11 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2022 – J.T. Poston: Round 1: 2 ahead, Round 2: 4 ahead, Round 3: 3 ahead.
- 2021 – Lucas Glover: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2019 – Dylan Frittelli: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 2 back.
- 2018 – Michael Kim: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 3 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
- 2017 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2016 – Ryan Moore: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 1 ahead.
- 2015 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 8 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
- 2014 – Brian Harman: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
- 2013 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 6 back.
- 2012 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2011 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
- 2010 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 6 ahead.
Tournament Incoming Form of John Deere Classic winners since 2010:
- Brian Campbell: MC US Open/WD Memorial/MC Colonial/ 55th PGA.
- Davis Thompson: 2nd Rocket/9th US Open/27th Memorial/MC Canadian Open.
- Sepp Straka: 64th Rocket/38th Travelers/MC US Open/16th Memorial.
- J.T. Poston: 2nd Travelers/MC Canadian Open/37th Memorial/MC Colonial.
- Lucas Glover: 41st Rocket/MC Palmetto/37th Memorial/8th Colonial.
- Dylan Frittelli: 46th 3M /46th Rocket /MC Travelers/59th Canadian Open.
- Michael Kim: MC Greenbrier/MC National/MC Travelers/18th St Jude.
- Bryson DeChambeau: 14th Greenbrier/17th National/26th Travelers/MC US Open.
- Ryan Moore: 17th Travelers/70th PGA/46th Open/32nd US Open.
- Jordan Spieth: 1st US Open/3rd Memorial/30th Byron Nelson/2nd Colonial.
- Brian Harman: MC Greenbrier/MC AT&T National/42nd Travelers/6th St Jude.
- Jordan Spieth: 23rd Greenbrier/6th AT&T National/MC US Open/63rd Memorial.
- Zach Johnson: 64th Travelers/41st US Open/MC St Jude/1st Colonial.
- Steve Stricker: 19th US Open/1st Memorial/12th TPC Sawgrass/13th New Orleans.
- Steve Stricker: 58th US Open/17th Memorial/38th Colonial/30th Masters.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Tom Kim; 2) Ben Griffin; 3) Ben Kohles; 4) J.T. Poston; 5) Eric Cole; 6) Keith Mitchell; 7) Sungjae Im; 8) Jackson Suber; 9) Carson Young; 10) Keegan Bradley.
John Deere Classic Winning Prices: 2025: Campbell 350/1; 2024: D Thompson 30/1; 2023: Straka 50/1; 2022: Poston 50/1; 2021: Glover 55/1; 2019: Frittelli 90/1; 2018: Michael Kim 300/1; 2017: DeChambeau 50/1; 2016: Moore 25/1; 2015: Spieth 4/1F; 2014: Harman 125/1; 2013: Spieth 40/1; 2012: Z Johnson 12/1; 2011: Stricker 7/1F; 2010: Stricker 16/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 107/1; Average: 134/1.
Historical Weather:
- 2025: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. SSW wind 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 93. SSW wind 6-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. SSW wind 12-15 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High of 85. NW wind 5-10 mph.
- 2024: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 83. Wind S 6-12 mph. Preferred lies were in effect for the first round. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 77. Wind W 15-25 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 82. Wind NW 4-8 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 82. Wind SW 6-12 mph.
- 2023: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 81. Wind NW 8-14 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with occasional showers. High of 80. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind NNW 8-12 mph, gusting to 15 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 84. Wind NW 6-12 mph, gusting to 15 mph.
- 2022: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind SW 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended from 10:29 a.m. to 11:45 a.m. CT (1 hour, 16 minutes). Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 87. Wind SE 7-14 mph.
- 2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 74. Wind NNE 6-12 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 77. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Cloudy, with light showers throughout the day. High of 70. Wind E 7-14 mph. Sunday: Rain throughout the day. High of 72. Wind NE 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph.
- 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 83. Wind N 8-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 87. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 90. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 92. Wind S/SSW 6-12 mph.
- 2018: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 91. Wind S 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy, with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High of 87. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Due to inclement weather, round two was suspended from 5:49 p.m. until 6:40 p.m. Due to additional storms, play was suspended for the day at 7:26 p.m. Saturday: Due to expected inclement weather in the afternoon, third-round tee times took place from 9:20 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. in threesomes off tee Nos. 1 and 10. Due to a dangerous weather situation, round three was suspended from 10:38 a.m. until 1:11 p.m. Play was again suspended at 5:53 p.m. and resumed at 7:12 p.m. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 88. W SSE 4-8 mph.
- 2017: Thursday: Partly sunny with a high of 83. Wind WNW 8-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 77. Wind NW 7-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 83. Wind WSW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind NE 8-15 mph.
- 2016: Thursday: Overcast, with afternoon thunderstorms. Friday: High of 82. Wind NNW at 8-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, becoming partly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind NW at 8-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 82. Wind W at 5-10 mph.
- 2015: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 75. Winds variable at 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 81. Wind SE at 8-15 mph. Saturday: Overcast, with rain and lightning in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High of 81. Wind SE at 6-12 mph. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high of 87. Wind SE at 6-12 mph.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Silvis, Illinois is here.
Warmer than normal is the summary for this week’s weather at the John Deere Classic. With 181mm of rain here in June, the course should be as lush and receptive as it usually is. Forecast thunderstorms overnight Friday into Saturday plus Saturday into Sunday could well make the course super soft for the weekend. It’s standard stuff in Illinois in July. Temperatures though will be warm, even warmer than last year with 32 Celsius – 90 Fahrenheit across the 4 days. Nagging 15–20 south-westerly winds on Thursday, Friday and Saturday could keep a slight lid on scoring, but with soft turf conditions I’d expect a winning total in the -20s.
Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Truist Championship / Myrtle Beach Classic / Catalunya Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Doug Ghim; 2) Michael Brennan; 3) Neal Shipley; 4) Johnny Keefer; 5) Keith Mitchell; 6) Ryan Brehm; 7) Jordan Spieth / Kevin Yu; 9) Chris Gotterup / Rico Hoey / Taylor Moore; 12) Tony Finau / Marcelo Rozo / Jhonattan Vegas; 15) Alejandro Tosti; 16) Matthieu Pavon; 17) J.T. Poston; 18) Ryo Hisatsune; 19) Webb Simpson; 20) Luke List / Andrew Novak; 22) Rickie Fowler / Ben Griffin; 24) Pierceson Coody / Max Greyserman / Taylor Pendrith / Michael Thorbjornsen.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Blades Brown; 2) Tom Kim; 3) Chris Gotterup; 4) Ben Kohles; 5) Seung-yul Noh; 6) Mark Hubbard; 7) Keegan Bradley; 8) Matt Wallace; 9) Zach Bauchou; 10) Fabian Gomez; 11) Daniel Berger / Rafael Campos / Eric Cole; 14) Luke Clanton; 15) Joel Dahmen / Ryo Hisatsune; 17) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Tom Hoge / Johnny Keefer / Jackson Suber; 21) Denny McCarthy / Andrew Novak / Matthieu Pavon; 24) Keith Mitchell; 25) Zac Blair / Nico Echavarria / Dylan Wu.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Jonathan Byrd; 2) Seung-yul Noh; 3) Ben Griffin / Patton Kizzire; 5) Mackenzie Hughes; 6) Adrien Dumont de Chassart / Brendon Todd; 8) Camilo Villegas; 9) Mac Meissner; 10) Sungjae Im / Stephan Jaeger / Peter Malnati; 13) Eric Cole / A.J. Ewart / Jeffrey Kang / Matt Kuchar / Aldrich Potgieter; 18) Andrew Putnam; 19) Jhonattan Vegas; 20) Doug Ghim / Chandler Phillips; 22) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Tony Finau / Michael Kim / Denny McCarthy.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Blades Brown; 2) Doug Ghim; 3) Seung-yul Noh; 4) Tom Kim; 5) Matthieu Pavon; 6) Taylor Moore; 7) Ben Griffin; 8) Zach Bauchou; 9) Aldrich Potgieter; 10) Mark Hubbard / Johnny Keefer; 12) Keegan Bradley / Chris Gotterup / Matt Wallace; 15) Andrew Novak; 16) Tony Finau / Ryo Hisatsune; 18) Keith Mitchell / Jackson Suber; 20) Ben Kohles; 21) Jackson Koivun / Jordan Spieth; 23) Eric Cole / J.T. Poston; 25) Emiliano Grillo / Mac Meissner / Kevin Yu.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Brendon Todd; 2) Eric Cole; 3) Jonathan Byrd; 4) Peter Malnati; 5) Pierceson Coody; 6) Erik van Rooyen; 7) Chris Gotterup / Ben Silverman; 9) Ben Griffin; 10) Blades Brown; 11) A.J. Ewart / Beau Hossler; 13) Sungjae Im / Michael Kim / Denny McCarthy / Aldrich Potgieter; 17) Mac Meissner; 18) Taylor Pendrith; 19) Seamus Power; 20) Troy Merritt / Keita Nakajima / Andrew Putnam; 23) Brice Garnett; 24) Steven Fisk; 25) J.T. Poston.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Blades Brown; 2) Seung-yul Noh; 3) Doug Ghim / Jackson Koivun; 5) Chris Gotterup; 6) Eric Cole / Aldrich Potgieter; 8) Ben Griffin; 9) Tom Kim; 10) Jackson Suber; 11) Taylor Moore; 12) Keegan Bradley; 13) Zach Bauchou; 14) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Keith Mitchell / Matt Wallace; 17) J.T. Poston; 18) A.J. Ewart / Patrick Fishburn / Keita Nakajima; 21) Pierceson Coody / Tony Finau / Michael Kim / Mac Meissner; 25) Taylor Pendrith.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Deere Run click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the John Deere Classic winners here at TPC Deere Run gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this north-eastern parkland test:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
- 2025, Brian Campbell (-18). SG Off the Tee: 63rd, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 11th, SG Tee to Green: 27th, SG Putting: 6th.
- 2024, Davis Thompson (-28). SG Off the Tee: 11th, SG Approach: 29th, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 5th.
- 2023, Sepp Straka (-21). SG Off the Tee: 7th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 34th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 4th.
- 2022, J.T. Poston (-21). SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 10th, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 31st.
- 2021, Lucas Glover (-19). SG Off the Tee: 29th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 17th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 19th.
- 2019, Dylan Frittelli (-21). SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 60th, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 15th, SG Putting: 2nd.
- 2018, Michael Kim (-27). SG Off the Tee: 34th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 47th, SG Tee to Green: 16th, SG Putting: 1st.
- 2017, Bryson DeChambeau (-18). SG Off the Tee: 17th, SG Approach: 27th, SG Around the Green: 38th, SG Tee to Green: 18th, SG Putting: 2nd.
- 2016, Ryan Moore (-22). SG Off the Tee: 23rd, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 32nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 8th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
- SG Off the Tee: 23rd, SG Approach: 19th, SG Around the Green: 21st, SG Tee to Green: 10th, SG Putting: 9th.
Across the 2021 to 2025 John Deere Classic renewals, statistically from a Stroke Gained perspective the winners gained on average 2.34 strokes per round from Tee to Green (64%) and 1.31 Putting (36%). These metrics are very similar to the Travelers Championship last week, although there is more emphasis on Strokes Gained on Approach plus Around the Green here, and far less on Off the Tee.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners of the John Deere Classic gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this parkland test:
- 2025, Brian Campbell (-18). 282 yards (64th), 75.0% fairways (11th), 80.6% greens in regulation (5th), 85.7 % scrambling (2nd), 1.71 putts per GIR (30th).
- 2024, Davis Thompson (-28). 308 yards (23rd), 71.4% fairways (25th), 81.9% greens in regulation (7th), 84.6 % scrambling (5th), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2023, Sepp Straka (-21). 308 yards (31st), 75.0% fairways (9th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 63.6 % scrambling (42nd), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd).
- 2022, J.T. Poston (-21). 295 yards (48th), 73.2% fairways (12th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 83.3 % scrambling (3rd), 1.70 putts per GIR (27th).
- 2021, Lucas Glover (-19). 293 yards (41st), 73.2% fairways (24th), 77.8% greens in regulation (15th), 81.5 % scrambling (5th), 1.66 putts per GIR (10th).
- 2019, Dylan Frittelli (-21). 314 yards (32nd), 78.6% fairways (7th), 77.8% greens in regulation (10th), 93.8% scrambling (1st), 1.70 putts per GIR (22nd).
- 2018, Michael Kim (-27). 295 yards (27th), 82.1% fairways (2nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 83.3% scrambling (1st), 1.53 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2017, Bryson DeChambeau (-17). 302 yards (21st), 75.0% fairways (32nd), 79.2% greens in regulation (11th), 66.7 % scrambling (29th), 1.65 putts per GIR (10th).
- 2016, Ryan Moore (-22). 289 yards (34th), 82.1% fairways (12th), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 91.1 % scrambling (1st), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th).
- 2015, Jordan Spieth (-20). 284 yards (17th), 69.6% fairways (60th), 72.2% greens in regulation (33rd), 65.0 % scrambling (32nd), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2014, Brian Harman (-22). 303 yards (18th), 80.4% fairways (8th), 87.5% greens in regulation (1st), 66.7 % scrambling (29th), 1.70 putts per GIR (31st).
- 2013, Jordan Spieth (-19). 318 yards (14th), 76.8% fairways (19th), 72.2% greens in regulation (34th), 70.0% scrambling (18th), 1.62 putts per GIR (8th).
- 2012, Zach Johnson (-20). 293 yards (47th), 73.2% fairways (34th), 75.0% greens in regulation (26th), 77.8% scrambling (2nd), 1.61 putts per GIR (4th).
- 2011, Steve Sticker (-22). 318 yards (12th), 64.3% fairways (62nd), 73.6% greens in regulation (33rd), 78.9% scrambling (2nd), 1.55 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2010, Steve Stricker (-26). 292 yards (32nd), 73.2% fairways (34th), 80.6% greens in regulation (11th), 64.3% scrambling (24th), 1.53 putts per GIR (1st).
Tournament Skill Averages:
- Driving Distance: 28th, Driving Accuracy: 23rd, Greens in Regulation: 13th, Scrambling: 13th, Putting Average 10th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Deere Run sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Brian Campbell (2025): “Just told myself to keep getting birdie looks. Didn’t make anything on my front nine, but I knew it was doing the right stuff, putting it in play. I guess I opened the lid there and made four in a row, so that definitely felt good. I was getting off the tee pretty well so I knew I was going to be in the fairway and could attack some of the pins. I missed a four-footer for birdie on the first; 12-footer for birdie on the second; and then two more in a row, missed some short birdies. So I knew I was right there. I just had to get it going kind of. And then made a stupid three-putt to get 1-over through 7. So yeah, didn’t get it discourage me.
Yeah, because we all have to play around the same time we all know we’re going to have the same conditions. And then we saw 15 to 16 mile an hour winds and pretty gusty out here because the trees just whip around. You really just got to position yourself well, and you can get on the wrong side of holes quickly. Yeah, I love whatever is put in front of me. I love the wind. You know, going to school in Illinois that’s all we played in. I’m used to it. I like to get creative with it. Again, if it’s a birdiefest go out and make a lot of birdies.
Yeah, I was expecting, I had kind of a target in my head, maybe 19, 20, if I could get there. I knew guys might be around there. But then the weather came out of nowhere. When that happens it changes how soft or firm areas are. Your drives aren’t going to go as far, too. The wind is switching all around when the rain showers come in. It got really tricky in the end, and I think that’s why everyone kind of hung around 17, 18. It was just a little tricky in the end there.”
Davis Thompson (2024): “Yeah, I mean, the wind felt like it was blowing primarily one direction all day yesterday, which made it easy. Felt like today it was just kind of swirling a little bit. Kind of made it a little tougher, but the greens are still soft so you are able to just hit it on the flag and it’s going to hit and stop.
Yeah, got off to a good start. Yeah was in a little trouble on 5, but, yeah, to make that bunker shot and keep it going, that was great. On 6 I hit a tree. It kicked back out on the fairway and made birdie. It could have gone the other way. Yeah, I guess it was just my day today. Hit a lot of good shots on the back nine and finished the round off well. Yeah, it was good.
I just wanted to stay aggressive. I wanted to — I knew there would be low scores out there today because the wind kind of died down and the conditions were a little soft. So I knew I was going to have to go play well. Thankfully I made a great putt on 1 and had a great up and down on 2 and kept the ball rolling.”
Sepp Straka (2023): “Just found some magic and then started hitting the ball really good, which I did on Thursday too, but really started making some putts. I think that’s the key out here. You’ve got to get the putter hot. Thankfully it stayed hot.
Yeah, thankfully I had a really good ball-striking day and had a hot putter going. So I just tried not to think about any of the situation too much because I was so far ahead of the leaders and just tried to keep making birdies.
So just knowing that I was in 130-something place after the first round and ended up winning, you just can’t ever really count yourself out because you could get hot any moment.”
J.T. Poston (2022): “This course right now, the weather is perfect. The course is in great shape. Guys are going to make a lot of birdies. I wouldn’t be surprised if whoever is kind of right there in the mix tomorrow shoots 10-, 12-, 13-under on the weekend. I think it’s very possible. I know I need to keep the pedal down and try and match that.”
“On the par-5 Number 2, yeah, luckily it was a good number with the wind. I knew I could hit a 3-wood as much as I wanted and it wasn’t going to be too much. It just came out great. Hit another tight draw down there and landed in a perfect spot and had 20 feet down the hill. ”
Lucas Glover (2021): “I wedged it very nice today and putted well, which you have to do here, because you get a lot of opportunities, and distance control is pretty important, and I did a good job of that today and then putted nice. I just like Deere Run. It’s in perfect shape for starters. It’s a fun golf course, and you know barring some crazy conditions, you’re going to get a lot of opportunities. If you’re putting okay you’re going to make some birdies, which is always a good feeling.
Confidence wise, I had a good Sunday last week. I didn’t play well Friday, Saturday, but I had a good Sunday and brought some stuff here from Sunday that were good. Yesterday was a little scrappy, but today everything kind of clicked.”
Dylan Frittelli (2019): “Yeah, that’s huge. I’d obviously won on The European Tour, but my exemption was running out at the end of this year, so I was looking at, if I don’t keep my card here on the U.S. tour, I have to go to Korn Ferry Tour School and play the Playoffs there, and try and get my card back. Then I’m giving up three or four weeks to play in Europe where I can try to keep a card. All this stuff has been going through my mind the last four to eight weeks, and the only thing is you can’t control that stuff. You just have to play golf and try to put it in the background. Last week and the previous week, I played great but let it affect me, and thankfully it weekend I managed to knuckle down and have a really clear mind-set and execute on pretty much every shot on the weekend.”
Michael Kim (2018): You know, I’ve been really comfortable on the course the last couple years, and if you look at kind of the guys that have done well here going back, guys like Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth, you know, guys that don’t necessarily bomb the ball, but with good wedge game and putting they can do good out here. So kind of along that same mould. Greens are great. They’re soft, they’re rolling true, and they’re bent greens, so you just got to hit it on your line.”
Bryson DeChambeau (2017): “Yeah, you got to be hitting your wedges really close. If you can do that all week, you’ll be just fine. If you can make pars on the tough par-3s and hit it on the fairway, like on 15 every day, land it on the green, two-putt, make your par, get out of there, I think you have a very good chance of playing well here. I have always liked short par 4s. My favourite is No. 9 at Cypress. It’s definitely a cool little short par-4; drivable. A lot of risk/reward in it. I think D.A.’s (Weibring) done a great job with 14, as well as 17. Definitely risk/reward holes that if you execute shots well you’re going to get rewarded. That’s the epitome of golf, right? Executing a shot, having it end up beautifully, even though sometimes you can get a bad break, right? So you could hit a beautiful shot on 14 and get absolutely into the worst place possible. Like if you pull it just a little bit on 14 and get on the down slope in the rough to the short left pin you’re toast. You’ve got to know where to miss it on those holes. I think he’s designed it very, very well.”
Ryan Moore (2016): “It’s a course I’ve really grown to like over the years. I played it early in my career, and I took a few years kind of off in the middle, and when I came back and started playing it again, I don’t know, I appreciated it more for some reason or another. Maybe I’ve learned over the years the type of golf courses that are good for me and that set up well for me, and this is definitely one of them. The golf course has enough angles, and the holes that you can force it down there a little bit farther, they’re pretty difficult tee shots, so guys that hit it significantly farther than me don’t have a huge advantage on a golf course like this.
Yeah, I think that’s part of the success. I enjoy the course. I like bent greens a lot. These are honestly some of the best we putt on every single year, and they’re probably the best I’ve ever seen them this year. They’re fantastic.”
Zach Johnson: “I think starting on 14, you’ve got often times a reachable par 4, a birdie hole, but a hole that if you’re just a little bit off, a bogey hole. 15 is a really good par 4. Obviously 16 assuming it’s one of the signature holes here if not the signature hole, great little par 3. A birdieable, maybe even eagle hole on 17, and then a brutal but fair 18th hole with a lot of opportunity and I would say treachery around the corner. It’s just because of the character of the last five holes here, I think. I don’t want to equate it to another golf course, but I look at I’m not saying we’re going to have seven straight birdies to finish, but if you look at TPC River Highlands, it’s kind of got that sort of ingredient, where you have a reachable par 5, you’ve got a short par 4, a par 3, a lot of water, and just holes that you can either go really, really low or it can really bite you, and I think that’s why you see a little bit of movement and guys just kind of bunching up at the end.”
Steve Stricker: “Winning score? Depends on the weather, I guess. I mean, there’s just a lot of good birdie opportunities out there, par-5s, some of them are reachable. For everybody, two of them are reachable, two out of the three. And there’s a lot of short irons in your hand where you can make some birdies. And then the holes you’ve got to pay attention on, you make your pars and move on. But yeah, it’ll be pushing that 20 number, I’m sure. The greens are pure.”
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
- 2025 – Ghim – AM -9/62 – 80/1.
- 2024 – Springer – AM -12/59 – 110/1.
- 2023 – Blixt – AM -9/62 – 275/1.
- 2022 – Poston – AM -9/62 – 60/1.
- 2021 – Hadley/Munoz – Both PM -8/63 – 95/1 & 70/1.
- 2019 – Diaz – PM -9/62 – 150/1.
- 2018 – Wheatcroft – AM -9/62 – 175/1.
- 2017 – Howell III/Schniederjans – AM/PM Split -8/63 – 45/1 & 95/1.
- 2016 – Gillis/Loupe – Both PM -7/64.
- 2015 – Thomas/N Thompson – AM/PM Split -8/63.
- 2014 – Harman/Z Johnson/Sabbatini – All AM -8/63.
- 2013 – Z Johnson / Villegas – Both AM -7/64.
- 2012 – Matteson – PM -10/61.
- 2011 – Blanks – PM -8/63.
- 2010 – Goydos – AM -12/59.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 5 – Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth.
- 4 – Webb Simpson.
- 3 – Keegan Bradley, Lucas Glover, Matt Kuchar, J.T. Poston, Jhonattan Vegas.
- 2 – Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Tom Kim, Martin Laird, Troy Merritt.
- 1 – Daniel Berger, Michael Brennan, Jonathan Byrd, Brian Campbell, Nico Echavarria, Dylan Frittelli, Ben Griffin, Emiliano Grillo, Lee Hodges, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Michael Kim, Ben Martin, William Mouw, Taylor Pendrith, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, Kevin Streelman, Davis Thompson, Brendon Todd, Camilo Villegas.
Recent winning totals of -20, -26, -22, -20, -19, -22, -20, -22, -18, -27, -21, -19, -21, -21, -28 and -18 highlight that the key to success in Illinois is two-fold: make copious amounts of birdies and minimise dropped shots. It’s not rocket science, but as both 2018 and 2019 highlighted, picking the winner here is not always easy. Picking out Michael Kim in 2018 at 300/1 with incoming form of MC/MC/MC, highlights the volatility we are dealing with at the John Deere Classic. 2019 saw Dylan Frittelli capture his maiden PGA Tour victory here at 90/1. His form in read 59-MC-46-46, hardly stellar stuff, but you could have picked him on the basis he had been 9th after 54 holes the week before at the 3M Open, before shooting a Sunday +2/73 and collapsing 37 spots. Fact is, this is resort scoring golf and freak results happen as a regular matter of course.
It won’t surprise in a tournament where 4 straight rounds of 66 is the target that streaky scorers dominate the contending positions. Poston, Michael Kim, Ryan Moore, Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson and ‘Mr John Deere’ himself Steve Stricker are all excellent Bentgrass putters, but equally ball-strikers can contend and occasionally win. Davis Thompson, Sepp Straka, Lucas Glover, Bryson DeChambeau, Sean O’Hair, Jhonattan Vegas, John Senden, Troy Matteson and Kyle Stanley are hardly outstanding when it comes to the flat stick, but excellent close approach play on enough holes can generate the volume of close birdie opportunities required to feature.
Statistically the John Deere Classic has one of the lowest Strokes Gained Ball Striking numbers when you look at winners going back to 2021. Off the Tee means little here – whilst just under 60% of the Total Strokes Gained are with the short game – be that Around the Green combined with the Putter.
Also worthy of note is that O’Hair, Senden, Harman, DeChambeau, Michael Kim, Frittelli, Davis Thompson and famously Jordan Spieth were all Tour maiden winners here at the John Deere Classic.
