Paul Williams

Paul Williams' KLM Open Tips 2023

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Holland is our next stop on the DP World Tour as we head towards a slightly more consistent run of events in the lead up to the Open Championship in a couple of months time. KLM have resurrected their support of this event after a 2-year break to once again give the Dutch Open a title sponsor, however with a $2m prize fund this event is undoubtedly still one of the lower tier affairs.

Victor Perez returns to defend his title this week having ranked as the highest finisher in this week’s field who played at Oak Hill, eventually finishing in a creditable tie for 12th place. The Frenchman has company at the top of the betting board though with Italian Open winner Adrian Meronk rating as the 12/1 joint favourite with some books as the pair continue their quest to sneak on to Luke Donald’s Ryder Cup team.

Beyond the market principals the likes of Rasmus Hojgaard, Jordan Smith, Alexander Bjork and Antoine Rozner sit in the 20/1 to 25/1 bracket in a familiar looking field and betting heat to recent weeks on the DP World Tour.

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Course Overview. Having flitted between Kennemer and Hilversumche since the millennium, and then The Dutch for three years and The International for a single renewal, the Dutch Open went to pastures new in 2021 as Bernardus Golf played host to this event for the first time, and we return for a third look at the Kyle Phillips design again this year.

The 7,445 yard par 72 opened in 2018 and is a typically flat, exposed Dutch design with generous fairways and top class A1/A4 Bentgrass greens. With thousands of heather plants slowly maturing and long fescue grass flanking the fairways for the seriously flagrant, the course has more than a hint of a linksy, heathland track about it.

A typical 10 par-4s, 4 par-3s and 4 par-5s, the long holes are all in the reachable bracket for those who can get the ball far enough down the fairway, and 2 short par-4s at the 3rd and 10th holes also present good scoring opportunities.

dutch open tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s KLM Open, however as noted above Bernardus Golf hosted the event in 2021 and 2022 only and results prior to that should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2022: Victor Perez, 50/1; 2021: Kristoffer Broberg, 275/1; 2019: Sergio Garcia, 16/1; 2018: Ashun Wu, 125/1; 2017: Romain Wattel, 175/1; 2016: Joost Luiten, 18/1; 2015: Thomas Pieters, 55/1; 2014: Paul Casey, 25/1; 2013: Joost Luiten, 20/1; 2012: Peter Hanson, 22/1; 2011: Simon Dyson, 25/1; 2010: Martin Kaymer, 12/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

4 largely dry and sunny days are expected for the tournament this year with temperatures edging up to the low 70s Fahrenheit over the weekend. Winds will be moderate at 10-15mph at times.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the two winners here at Bernardus Golf gives us a little more insight into the task at hand:

  • 2022, Victor Perez (-13). 313 yards (5th), 71.4% fairways (20th), 75% greens in regulation (4th), 61.1% scrambling (12th), 1.74 putts per GIR (29th).
  • 2021, Kristoffer Broberg (-23). 304 yards (33rd), 69.6% fairways (41st), 76.4% greens in regulation (37th), 82.4% scrambling (1st), 1.55 putts per GIR (6th).

There was a real mix of driving distances from the contenders here in 2021, however that settled down a little 12 months ago with the top 3 finishers all ranking inside the top 10 for DD on the week.

Absolute numbers of fairways were high overall both years, with greens a little tougher to hold last year which brought GIR stats down a little in general to accompany a 10-shot differential in the winning totals.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, there are significant differences in the way that Perez won last year compared to Broberg the year before, with the Frenchman’s long game shining in a tougher renewal compared to the Swede’s hot putter the year before:

  • 2022, Victor Perez: T: 2nd; A: 21st; T2G: 1st; ATG: 1st; P: 34th
  • 2021, Kristoffer Broberg: T: 49th; A: 35th; T2G: 25th; ATG: 17th; P: 1st

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: A second DP World Tour title for Victor Perez last year followed some solid if unspectacular form with 2 top-10 finishes in his last 12 starts. 21st at the British Masters and 33rd at the Soudal Open in the immediate build-up to last year’s renewal didn’t scream impending success, however 8th at the ISPS Handa Championship in Spain the previous month had shown some promise at least.

The 275/1 about Kristoffer Broberg in 2021 gives you a clue about his incoming form and just two top-20 finishes in the season to that point hardly hinted at impending success. 6 weeks off since finishing 63rd on his previous start, the Swede coasted to victory having done the hard work over the first 3 days.

Before that, Sergio Garcia’s immediate form was nothing to write home about before he converted this title the in 2019, however he’d sat inside the top 10 heading into Sunday at Crans on his previous start.

Ashun Wu’s patchy season had taken a positive step the week before he obliged for us in this event in 2018 at 125/1, having finished 6th the week before at Crans-sur-Sierre; Wattel was having a poor season before capturing his maiden European Tour title in 2017 and 175/1 was indicative of the year he was having which, until that point, had seen no finish better than 24th on Tour.

Joost Luiten had twice finished runner-up earlier that season, and 33rd at the US PGA as well as 27th at the Olympics was clearly strong form relative to the field in 2016; Pieters had won a fortnight before, gaining his maiden European Tour victory in the Czech Republic; Casey had been playing predominantly in the USA and back-to-back top-22 finishes in higher company.

Luiten in 2013 had won the Lyoness Open earlier in the summer and Peter Hanson had finished 3rd at Augusta that season. Simon Dyson had won the Irish Open 5 events before capturing his 3rd KLM Open title in 2011, and Martin Kaymer’s 4 stroke victory in 2010 was his first start since winning the US PGA Championship at Whistling Straits:

  • 2022, Victor Perez: 8/24/46/58/60/53/55/MC/8/MC/21/33
  • 2021, Kristoffer Broberg: MC/MC/54/MC/MC/MC/MC/12/37/52/MC/63
  • 2019, Sergio Garcia: 5/MC/4/MC/MC/52/MC/7/67/40/MC/23
  • 2018, Ashun Wu: MC/64/60/47/MC/DQ/MC/11/MC/MC/49/6
  • 2017, Romain Wattel: 24/31/66/MC/51/MC/MC/26/MC/33/MC/65
  • 2016, Joost Luiten: 2/2/44/MC/27/6/16/9/MC/MC/33/27
  • 2015, Thomas Pieters: MC/18/33/MC/MC/24/39/MC/60/33/35/1
  • 2014, Paul Casey: 16/MC/13/24/56/33/22/14/47/MC/18/22
  • 2013, Joost Luiten: 15/21/8/MC/11/1/10/2/49/MC/4/44
  • 2012, Peter Hanson: 14/52/15/17/3/MC/61/23/63/7/59
  • 2011, Simon Dyson: 5/3/20/MC/MC/25/9/1/33/51/15/16
  • 2010, Martin Kaymer: MC/34/MC/28/12/8/21/6/MC/7/22/1

Event Form. There are no real clues from the past 3 winners of this event as Sergio Garcia’s win in 2019 was both his first attempt at the Dutch Open and his competitive debut in Holland full stop. Kristoffer Broberg’s trio of missed cuts wasn’t exactly screaming for him to be backed in 2021 and Victor Perez’s only previous visit to Holland had also ended on the Friday.

2018 winner Ashun Wu had fairly non-descript event form before winning, however he’d sat in 6th position going into the weekend the year before to give some indication that he was comfortable on the course and in the area.

2017 winner Romain Wattel had missed the cut at The Dutch on his previous attempt, however a 5th place finish at Kennemer in 2014 masks the fact that he led by 3 shots going into the final round before stumbling to a closing 74.

2016 winner Joost Luiten won this event for the 2nd time having previously triumphed in 2013, whereas 2011 winner Simon Dyson has notched 3 KLM Open successes over his career:

  • 2022, Victor Perez: MC
  • 2021, Kristoffer Broberg: MC/MC/MC
  • 2019, Sergio Garcia: Debut
  • 2018, Ashun Wu: 46/31
  • 2017, Romain Wattel: MC/MC/MC/5/MC/MC
  • 2016, Joost Luiten: MC/MC/2/MC/MC/57/6/MC/1/5/23
  • 2015, Thomas Pieters: 30/22
  • 2014, Paul Casey: 46/41
  • 2013, Joost Luiten: MC/MC/2/MC/MC/57/6/MC
  • 2012, Peter Hanson: 28/MC
  • 2011, Simon Dyson: 60/1/27/12/1/MC
  • 2010, Martin Kaymer: 55

Any exposed course like this without serious protection is likely to be there for the taking when conditions are soft and benign, which explains the 23-under winning total from Kristoffer Broberg 2 years ago. Any kind of breeze and firmness can quickly toughen the track up though, although there’s nothing excessive in the forecast this year.

Kyle Phillips has either designed or had a hand in a number of courses that are familiar to us on Tour, with Kingsbarns which features as part of the Dunhill Links rotation each year perhaps the most recognised. The Grove which hosted the 2016 British Masters is another of his tracks, as is Dundonald Links which was the venue for the Scottish Open a year later.

PGA Sweden’s Lakes Course (2015 Nordea Masters), Verdura (2017, 2018 Rocco Forte/Sicilian Open) and Hilversumche (2010-12 KLM Open) are also worth a look to varying degrees, with the latter a renovation of the Harry Colt original on a Dutch track with a few parallels to this week’s task.

Although described as a heathland track, the consensus from many of the players was that Bernardus plays very much like a traditional links course, which ties in nicely with many of Phillips’ designs. Last year’s winner Victor Perez is a former Dunhill Links winner and runner up Ryan Fox plays some of his best golf on similar terrain, so further exploring that line of enquiry is no bad approach this week in my view.

My selections are as follows:

Eddie Pepperell 1.5pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

The addition of Victor Perez to this week’s field is the only significant difference from many of the betting heats that we’ve seen on the DP World Tour lately. Perez has flow straight back from Oak Hill after finishing 12th, the highest finish of any of this week’s attendees and quite clearly the standout piece of immediate form on show.

Aside from travelling back to Europe and the adjustment that requires to the body clock in a short space of time, the Frenchman is also defending here this week and whilst I can understand why there’s been early money for him, for me those two factors might just take their toll by Sunday.

Adrian Meronk also has jet lag to contend with after his 40th place finish in New York State. 3 wins since July last year is mightily impressive, however he’s needed to build back up to his next victory each time so if he were to back up his Italian Open success from a fortnight ago that would be a change in his MO, although not one that’s out of the realms of possibility of course.

Rasmus Hojgaard continues to flatter to deceive, whereas Jordan Smith’s performance will likely be dictated by the warmth of the putter which is never a given with the Englishman. I’ll bypass all of these though and take a chance on an improving Eddie Pepperell who can build on last year’s 14th place finish here this week and seriously contend.

4 straight missed cuts to start the year prompted him to take a 3 month break to work on his game and he’s seemingly come back in a much stronger place, finishing 9th at the Italian Open, ranking 8th for SG Approach and 9th for SG Tee to Green, before recording a 22nd place finish at the Soudal Open last time out with the putter warming ever so slightly.

Wins at the 2018 Qatar Masters and British Masters, the latter being hosted that year at Walton Heath with its heathland layout, both carry relevance to this week’s task, and after 5 years without a victory and now into his early 30s, perhaps it’s time for the talented Englishman to push on once again and add some more silverware to his collection.

Holland has been a strong venue for Eddie over the years regardless of the actual course, with finishes of 4th and 5th at Kennemer, 3rd and 6th at The Dutch, plus last year’s 14th place finish here at Bernardus Golf which came in a period of time where he’d missed 6 of last 8 cuts. He seems to be in far better shape right now game-wise and can feature here this week in my view. RESULT: MC

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Callum Shinkwin 1.5pts EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

A missed cut or two can always cloud the judgement when it comes to golf betting, often resulting in an instant line through a player when there’s otherwise an awful lot to like.

A weekend off at the Soudal Open, which immediately preceded Callum Shinkwin’s PGA Championship debut last week where a pair of 74s also saw him leave empty handed on Friday night, almost had me drawing a line through his name, however on reflection there’s enough to like to support him here this week.

4th at Rolex Series level in Dubai at the end of January is good enough on its own to suggest he can dominate in this field, and 9th at the Italian Open at the start of the month is further competitive form on this year’s Ryder Cup track and enough to peak my interest, even if there have been some poor efforts either side.

At 2nd for SG Off the Tee and 19th for SG Tee to Green for the season to date, it’s inconsistency with his approach game which has prevented him from pushing on and seriously threatening a third DP World Tour title, however that effort at the Marco Simone GC hinted at something better with his best SG Approach effort since October, ranking 9th on that count overall.

What really catches the eye for this week though is the Hertfordshire man’s record on exposed tracks. Runner up to Rafa Cabrera-Bello at Dundonald Links in 2017 – another Kyle Phillips track – the 30 year-old has gone on to record victories at Aphrodite Hills in Cyprus and at Celtic Manor, both of which carry some agronomy and topography links to this week. 2nd at last year’s Dunhill Links can’t be ignored either given Victor Perez’s record there and the Kyle Phillips tie with Kingsbarns. RESULT: MC

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✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
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✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

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Grant Forrest 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

With his 30th birthday looming in little under a month’s time, perhaps the mind of Grant Forrest will be focussed on building on his solitary DP World Tour title while his game’s in good shape.

Exposed, links or link-like tests are second nature for the Scot who was born in Livingstone and now resides in North Berwick, and it was no surprise that his breakthrough win came on compatible terrain at the Hero Open back in 2021, which was hosted that year at Fairmont St Andrews.

3rd at Hillside last July off the back of a pair of missed cuts is a further clue that he should enjoy this week’s test and should be well capable of building on last year’s debut here at Bernardus which resulted in a mid-division 43rd place finish.

What excites more this year is that Grant has been playing far more consistent golf in 2023 and could be on the cusp of something special, which may well be sparked by a return to a linksy style test. 7 cuts made from 7 events this year is the best spell that Forrest has produced since the end of 2021, and within that there have been some really positive signs.

10th at Rolex Series level to start the year in Abu Dhabi was positive and he’s since gone to finish 6th in Singapore, 13th in Thailand, 11th in Kenya and 4th in Japan – all on far less compatible tracks than this week.

Averaging a touch over 320 yards from off the tee for the season to date, Forrest has the aggression to attack this course and can record a significant improvement on last year’s debut. RESULT: T8

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✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers with this qualifying link
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

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Ewen Ferguson 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

Another Scot who could go well this week is Ewen Ferguson.

2022 was a massive breakout year for the 26 year-old by winning twice on the DP World Tour, and it was only the putting heroics of Oliver Wilson at the Made in Himmerland which prevented him from making it a hat-trick of titles on the space of 6 months.

Himmerland, to a degree, and Doha, the scene of his first win at the Qatar Masters, carry some correlation to this week’s task, with the latter a regular barometer for players who may go on to perform well at future links-type tests. With a wealth of junior experience competing on the Scottish coast, Bernardus should be a good fit and building on last year’s 37th place finish, where he sat in 8th place after the first day and was still in a handy position at the halfway point, is a distinct possibility.

After a relatively quiet period following a pair of top-10 finishes in the autumn, the Glasgow man bounced back to form in March with back-to-back top 4 finishes in South Africa. Although he hasn’t pushed on from that point, there were some positive signs at the Soudal Open on his last start, with middle rounds of 69/67 the highlight as he finished in a tie for 33rd place. RESULT: T8

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✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers with this qualifying link
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

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Dan Bradbury 1pt EW 90/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

At a slightly longer price, Dan Bradbury completes my team this week.

The Wakefield man made an explosive start to his professional career, winning on just his third DP World Tour start and sixth event overall at November’s Joburg Open, recording an impressive 3-shot victory over Sami Valimaki and a whole host of vastly more experienced competitors.

It’s still a little early for us to fully categorise his game, however a solid blend of power and accuracy from off the tee has seen the 23 year-old rank inside the top 25 for Total Driving on 9 of his 10 DP World Tour level starts where he’s made the weekend. That’s a good starting point for this week given how Victor Perez navigated Bernardus last year, and his iron-play seems to be moving forward too with Dan ranking 2nd for GIR on each of his last two outings.

What really caught the eye though was his 10th place finish last time out at the Soudal Open. Field-leading SG Approach and SG Tee-to-Green performances were only hampered by a stone cold putter, however he’s already hinted that the flat stick can blow hot and cold. With his 13th place finish at last year’s Spanish Open, where he ranked 2nd for SG Putting, it’s evident that he can compliment his long game prowess with a competitive putting performance on occasion.

Given that it’s his course debut and there’s little more to go on other than a round of 61 at Moortown GC in February which has a distinct heathland feel to it, there’s a leap of faith with this bet, however Dan – who’s already had two aces on Tour this year – is a massive talent who I can’t ignore at the price on offer. RESULT: T29

*bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. Registration required. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.

✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers with this qualifying link
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 17:15BST 22.5.23 but naturally subject to fluctuation.

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