Paul Williams

Paul Williams' KLM Open Tips 2025

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The Netherlands is our next stop on the DP World Tour before we break for next week’s US Open. KLM have continued their support of this event after a 2-year break after Covid to once again give the Dutch Open a title sponsor, however with a $2.75m prize fund this event is undoubtedly still one of the lower tier affairs on the circuit.

Guido Migliozzi returns to defend his KLM Open title after notching his 4th career victory here at The International last year whilst carrying our money, however the Italian sits a fair way down the betting board which is headed by Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at 18/1, despite missing the cut last week in Austria. Beyond the market leader we have the likes of Haotong Li, Joost Luiten and Laurie Canter who all rate between 22/1 and 25/1.

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Course Overview. Having flitted between Kennemer and Hilversumche since the millennium, the KLM Open has been a little more nomadic in recent years, being hosted three times each at The Dutch from 2016 to 2018 and Bernardus Golf from 2021 to 2023, however this year we return to 2019 and 2024’s venue, The International.

Opened in 2012 and designed by Ian Woosnam, the course is listed as a Par 71 at just 6,914 yards again this year with the short Par-4 11th having been converted to a fifth Par-3 prior to last year’s event. Other tweaks from 2019 are minor and for all intents and purposes we’re on the same courses and same routing as when Sergio Garcia won here back then with the exception of the changes to the 11th, and as it stands the setup is identical to that which we saw 12 months ago.

An exposed, undulating course with wide fairways and large bentgrass greens, the rough is long and thick in places for those venturing off of the straight and narrow and whilst the par-5s will undoubtedly produce birdies and eagles given their dimensions, that will be best achieved from off the fairway.

As ever with short, exposed tracks, the elements are the course’s best defence, and a fairly breezy forecast should keep a lid on scoring this week.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s KLM Open, however as noted above The International hosted the event in 2019 and 2024 only and results outside of those years should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2024: Guido Migliozzi, 33/1; 2023: Pablo Larrazabal, 55/1; 2022: Victor Perez, 50/1; 2021: Kristoffer Broberg, 275/1; 2019: Sergio Garcia, 16/1; 2018: Ashun Wu, 125/1; 2017: Romain Wattel, 175/1; 2016: Joost Luiten, 18/1; 2015: Thomas Pieters, 55/1; 2014: Paul Casey, 25/1; 2013: Joost Luiten, 20/1; 2012: Peter Hanson, 22/1; 2011: Simon Dyson, 25/1; 2010: Martin Kaymer, 12/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

Sunshine and showers is the summary for this week’s 4 days of tournament play, however the real feature may well be the wind. A 15-20mph breeze blowing across The International will make this course a trickier test, with gusts in excess of 30mph possible at times. Temperatures will peak around 17 Centigrade, 63 Fahrenheit in the afternoons.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of our two winners here at The International gives us a little more insight into the task at hand:

  • 2024, Guido Migliozzi (-11). 61.5% fairways (35th), 75.9% greens in regulation (6th), 44.4% scrambling (97th), 1.65 putts per GIR (4th)
  • 2019, Sergio Garcia (-18). 60.7% fairways (18th), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 66.7% scrambling (4th), 1.75 putts per GIR (20th).

Overall there was little variance here in 2019 in terms of GIR performance with even those ranking around 50th of the weekend participants hitting 70% or more putting surfaces. Last year’s tougher renewal saw GIR down in general, however most players were bunched around 65-75% over the course of the week.

Scrambling and bogey avoidance were the ultimate determinants of success here in 2019, with the top 3 making no more than 6 mistakes each on the week. Last year was a little different with putting average more prominent than scrambling, however again that may be due to overall tougher conditions.

Despite having 4 Par-5s on the course, no player in either renewal managed to reach double-digits under par for the long holes over the 4 days combined, with Garcia’s 7-under a fairly typical score for the leading players in 2019. Migliozzi was just 4-under for the Par-5s last year and again anything approaching 6- or 7-under for the long holes ranked well in the field.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, Sergio Garcia’s metrics in 2019 were pretty much what you’d expect from him with long game performance shining.

SG Tee to Green was the most consistent stat of the leading performers on the week, with only Matthew Southgate from the top 14 recorded finishers ranking outside the top 17 on that measure for that year.

Guido’s numbers from last year were also skewed towards SG Approach and SG Tee to Green with the Italian ranking inside the top 10 on both counts for the week, however his performance was a little more balanced overall as he was Strokes Gained positive in every category:

  • 2024, Guido Migliozzi: T: 27th; A: 10th; T2G: 6th; ATG: 13th; P: 21st
  • 2019, Sergio Garcia: T: 4th; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 32nd; P: 31st

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Guido Migliozzi survived a 3-man play-off here last year to capture his 4th DP World Tour title having shown some good form leading up to the event. 2nd at the weather-affected China Open had been followed by a solid 24th at the Soudal Open before he let a great chance slip away when carrying our money in Germany on his last start, eventually finishing 8th.

Pablo Larrazabal’s 9th DP World Tour win followed hot on the heels of his 8th 2 starts prior when the amiable Spaniard won this event at Bernardus Golf in 2023. His form had been average at best until a top-10 finish in India paved the way for a quick-fire double, with a paid weekend at the US PGA Championship wedged in between.

A second DP World Tour title for Victor Perez in 2022 followed some solid if unspectacular form with 2 top-10 finishes in his last 12 starts. 21st at the British Masters and 33rd at the Soudal Open in the immediate build-up to last year’s renewal didn’t scream impending success, however 8th at the ISPS Handa Championship in Spain the previous month had shown some promise at least.

The 275/1 about Kristoffer Broberg in 2021 gives you a clue about his incoming form and just two top-20 finishes in the season to that point hardly hinted at impending success. 6 weeks off since finishing 63rd on his previous start, the Swede coasted to victory having done the hard work over the first 3 days.

Before that, Sergio Garcia’s immediate form was nothing to write home about before he converted this title the in 2019, however he’d sat inside the top 10 heading into Sunday at Crans on his previous start.

Ashun Wu’s patchy season had taken a positive step the week before he obliged for us in this event in 2018 at 125/1, having finished 6th the week before at Crans-sur-Sierre; Wattel was having a poor season before capturing his maiden European Tour title in 2017 and 175/1 was indicative of the year he was having which, until that point, had seen no finish better than 24th on Tour.

Joost Luiten had twice finished runner-up earlier that season, and 33rd at the US PGA as well as 27th at the Olympics was clearly strong form relative to the field in 2016; Pieters had won a fortnight before, gaining his maiden European Tour victory in the Czech Republic; Casey had been playing predominantly in the USA and back-to-back top-22 finishes in higher company.

Luiten in 2013 had won the Lyoness Open earlier in the summer and Peter Hanson had finished 3rd at Augusta that season. Simon Dyson had won the Irish Open 5 events before capturing his 3rd KLM Open title in 2011, and Martin Kaymer’s 4 stroke victory in 2010 was his first start since winning the US PGA Championship at Whistling Straits:

  • 2024, Guido Migliozzi: 13/25/68/MC/49/MC/16/MC/MC/2/24/8
  • 2023, Pablo Larrazabal: 50/65/63/47/20/28/56/38/10/MC/1/65
  • 2022, Victor Perez: 8/24/46/58/60/53/55/MC/8/MC/21/33
  • 2021, Kristoffer Broberg: MC/MC/54/MC/MC/MC/MC/12/37/52/MC/63
  • 2019, Sergio Garcia: 5/MC/4/MC/MC/52/MC/7/67/40/MC/23
  • 2018, Ashun Wu: MC/64/60/47/MC/DQ/MC/11/MC/MC/49/6
  • 2017, Romain Wattel: 24/31/66/MC/51/MC/MC/26/MC/33/MC/65
  • 2016, Joost Luiten: 2/2/44/MC/27/6/16/9/MC/MC/33/27
  • 2015, Thomas Pieters: MC/18/33/MC/MC/24/39/MC/60/33/35/1
  • 2014, Paul Casey: 16/MC/13/24/56/33/22/14/47/MC/18/22
  • 2013, Joost Luiten: 15/21/8/MC/11/1/10/2/49/MC/4/44
  • 2012, Peter Hanson: 14/52/15/17/3/MC/61/23/63/7/59
  • 2011, Simon Dyson: 5/3/20/MC/MC/25/9/1/33/51/15/16
  • 2010, Martin Kaymer: MC/34/MC/28/12/8/21/6/MC/7/22/1

Event Form. Last year’s winner Guido Migliozzi was making his competitive debut at The International, however he’d shown some aptitude in the Netherlands prior to that at Bernardus Golf on debut in 2022, sitting in 3rd place heading into Sunday before eventually finishing 10th, and we know from past experience that Dutch form seems to carry across courses.

Pablo Larrazabal’s form at the KLM Open was strong from his previous starts at various venues with 5 consecutive top-20 finishes and a best of 2nd back in 2012 to his name, so picking him on a combination of current and event form in 2023 wasn’t overly difficult.

Prior to that, there are no real clues from the previous 3 winners of this event as Sergio Garcia’s win in 2019 was both his first attempt at the Dutch Open and his competitive debut in Holland full stop. Kristoffer Broberg’s trio of missed cuts wasn’t exactly screaming for him to be backed in 2021 and Victor Perez’s only previous visit to Holland had also ended on the Friday.

2018 winner Ashun Wu had fairly non-descript event form before winning, however he’d sat in 6th position going into the weekend the year before to give some indication that he was comfortable on the course and in the area.

2017 winner Romain Wattel had missed the cut at The Dutch on his previous attempt, however a 5th place finish at Kennemer in 2014 masks the fact that he led by 3 shots going into the final round before stumbling to a closing 74.

2016 winner Joost Luiten won this event for the 2nd time having previously triumphed in 2013, whereas 2011 winner Simon Dyson has notched 3 KLM Open successes over his career:

  • 2024, Guido Migliozzi: 10/MC
  • 2023, Pablo Larrazabal: MC/34/MC/2/9/5/20/11
  • 2022, Victor Perez: MC
  • 2021, Kristoffer Broberg: MC/MC/MC
  • 2019, Sergio Garcia: Debut
  • 2018, Ashun Wu: 46/31
  • 2017, Romain Wattel: MC/MC/MC/5/MC/MC
  • 2016, Joost Luiten: MC/MC/2/MC/MC/57/6/MC/1/5/23
  • 2015, Thomas Pieters: 30/22
  • 2014, Paul Casey: 46/41
  • 2013, Joost Luiten: MC/MC/2/MC/MC/57/6/MC
  • 2012, Peter Hanson: 28/MC
  • 2011, Simon Dyson: 60/1/27/12/1/MC
  • 2010, Martin Kaymer: 55

With trickier conditions in 2024 compared to 2019 here at The International, the winning total came down from 18-under to 11-under, and with a stiff breeze likely throughout this year’s renewal we might even see a winning total in the single digits under par region this time around. A patient approach that minimises bogeys may well be the key to success in 2025.

My selections are as follows:

John Parry 1.5pts EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

I remember backing Guido Migliozzi at last year’s Porsche European Open where he co-led into the final round only to shoot 78 and all but erase any kind of return for me on the week. That round aside though he was playing some great golf, so I backed him here at The International on his next start 3 weeks later and he duly obliged at 33/1.

Now the story isn’t quite the same with John Parry, although there are enough similarities for me to have enough reservations about dropping him to instead lead with him here this week in the Netherlands. 2nd going into Sunday at the Soudal Open when carrying my cash and playing alongside Ewen Ferguson who’s had his share of Sunday wobbles, it’s fair to say that I was excited by his winning prospects. A 72 followed, the worst score from anyone who finished in the top 20, when there were plenty of 67s on display and eventual winner Kristoffer Reitan shot 62. Ho-hum.

I’ll give Parry another chance this week though on his debut at The International which I think will suit him nicely as he continues his bid to gain a PGA Tour card for next year, having already won in Mauritius at the start of the wraparound season.

Since then, 21st at the Qatar Masters saw John sit 7th heading into the weekend on that tricky test and he followed that up with a runner-up finish in Kenya where he led to halfway and was ultimately unlucky to run into an inspired Jacques Kruyswijk that week. His effort in Belgium saw him lead the field for GIR whilst producing Strokes Gained positive stats in every category with 7th for SG Tee to Green the most striking, an effort which pushed him up to 7th overall on Tour for that same metric for the season to date.

An underwhelming Dutch Open record over the years can by overlooked given that he’s playing at an entirely different level since his last visit to the country in 2023, and as a course debutant he has no baggage on this specific track.

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Marcus Armitage 1.5pts EW 70/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

I vividly remember doing my post-event analysis on the 2021 Porsche European Open won by Marcus Armitage and remarking that he’d led the field the week before at the Made in Himmerland in terms of GIR where he’d finished in a tie for 8th place overall. That victory – which to date is his only success on Tour – was on a challenging course in a tricky week for conditions, eventually contested over 54 holes with a winning score of just 8-under par.

To begin with there are enough parallels to whet my appetite when you consider that The Bullet finished 13th at last week’s Austrian Open where he again led the field for GIR. This week is unlikely to be reduced to 54 holes, however it will undoubtedly be tricky and the 37 year-old has proven that he can grind when grinding is the order of the day.

Oh, and did I mention that his victory in Germany came in the first week of June? A nice big tick in the biorhythms box to add to the justification for backing him here.

Aside from last week’s solid effort, there’s been plenty to like so far in 2025 as the Manchester native looks to double his title tally on the DP World Tour. 3 times this year’s he’s led or co-led the field after Thursday’s round, with his opening 63 in Ras Al Khaimah the most eye-catching. Armitage led at halfway too, only to eventually lose out to an impressive Alejandro Del Rey who fired a pair of weekend 66s to win by 4 strokes.

5th at the weather-affected 54-hole Singapore Open also followed one of his fast starts, and although he’s been largely off the boil since, last week’s effort where he ranked 4th for both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green showed enough promise for me to overlook last year’s missed cut here when he was playing poorly.

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Pablo Larrazabal 1pt EW 90/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

A little further down the list and the name of Pablo Larrazabal is of interest given the prospect of breezy conditions.

The 9-time DP World Tour winner seems to be one of those players who the bookies readily forget about when headline results aren’t great, yet he’s proven time and again that a) he doesn’t need a sparkling form line to carve out a victory, and b) he simply knows how to get over the line.

2nd at the Bahrain Championship back in February is a case in point in all but the actual winning part of my argument. An opening round of 66 came in the windiest part of the day, with the Barcelona man describing that effort as the best he’d played since becoming a father the previous year and proclaiming, “I played great, I like to play in the wind.”

With the title at his mercy, the 41 year-old missed a 6-footer to win on the 72nd green to take the event to extra holes where he lost out to Laurie Canter, and although that will have hurt it nevertheless marked his card in terms of his potential to win a 10th title at some point this season.

That effort came after a run of form reading MC/MC/57 and that’s the point with Pablo, he doesn’t have to telegraph his victories. His previous 2 wins came off the back of a 65th place finish and a missed cut, so a form line reading 56/31/MC/51 following a top-10 in India isn’t going to put me off.

The 2023 KLM Open champion when the event was played at Bernardus Golf, Larrazabal could join the list of multiple Dutch Open winners this week, following on from the likes of Seve, Langer and more recently Simon Dyson (3 times) and Joost Luiten (twice).

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Matthew Southgate 1pt EW 110/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Finally, with links golf season just around the corner, I can’t resist getting Matthew Southgate on side this week on a short, exposed, windswept course where some of his best qualities could come to the fore.

Whilst the Englishman’s most notable efforts have come at the likes of the Open Championship (12th and 6th in 2016 and 2017 respectively) and at the Alfred Dunhill Links (2nd 2019 and 2023), anywhere with a bit of width and/or wind could suit, and to that end I’m happy to take a chance on him here this week.

10th on his debut here at The International where he was 2nd heading into the weekend, he withdrew after a solid opening round of 70 here last year which suggests to me that he gets on well enough with the course to get the nod.

In what’s been a largely disappointing 2025 so far, his 5th place finish at the Turkish Airlines Open was more than noteworthy. The 36 year-old led the field for SG Tee to Green that week on what is a relatively short Par 71, whilst also ranking inside the top-8 for SG Off the Tee and SG Approach. 64th at the Soudal Open a missed cut last week have followed, however that’s how Southgate rolls and a return to contending form this week isn’t out of the question at a long price.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:00BST 2.6.25 but naturally subject to fluctuation.