The DP World Tour returns this week after a short break, with the players first heading to Kenya before venturing to South Africa for a fortnight of co-sanctioned Sunshine Tour events, before the Tour’s Asian Swings takes us further East.
First things first though and the Magical Kenya Open sees its seventh renewal following its promotion to the main Tour in 2019, having previously been an early-season fixture on the Challenge Tour. Guido Migliozzi won the 2019 edition here at Karen Country Club, with Justin Harding taking the title in 2021 after Covid prevented the 2020 renewal from happening; there was also the Kenya Savannah Classic in 2021, played the week after Harding’s victory as the Tour pieced together its post-pandemic schedule.
The 2022 event moved from the south-west of Nairobi to the north-east and Muthaiga Golf Club, where Ashun Wu proved victorious with a dominant 4-stroke victory. Jorge Campillo grabbed the trophy in 2023 when the event returned to the same venue, holding off Japanese star Masahiro Kawamura by 2 strokes, before Darius van Driel completed an impressive maiden victory here in 2024. Jacques Kruyswijk completes our brief history lesson, capturing his maiden DP World Tour title at Muthaiga 12 months ago.
Angel Ayora heads the betting this week at a general 12/1 as he looks to make his much-anticipated breakthrough at DP World Tour level. Hennie du Plessis, Joost Luiten, Thriston Lawrence and Antoine Rozner follow in what’s a very open-looking field.
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Karen CC. Designer: Remy Martin, 1937; Course Type: Classical; Par: 70; Length: 7,056 yards; Water Hazards: 8; Fairways: Kikuyu; Rough: Kikuyu mix; Greens: Bentgrass, 12’5″ on the stimp.
Course Overview. Karen CC hosted the Kenya Open on the Challenge Tour between 2004-2008 and 2013-2016, plus it also played host to the Karen Masters on the Sunshine Tour in 2018 and 2019, as well as being the venue for this event when it made its debut on Tour in 2019. The 2021 renewal followed, as did the one-off Kenya Savannah Classic played the following week, however for the past 4 years we’ve seen this event played at Muthaiga.
The 7,056 yard layout, which sits 10 miles outside of Nairobi and is played at altitude which further reduces the length of the course, is classical in style with tree-lined holes and relatively narrow fairways, however the trees aren’t tight to the fairways in general and this is more Italian Open style than Valderrama in terms of playability. The small, undulating greens were re-laid with Bentgrass in 2015, replacing the tired Bermudagrass putting surfaces, and they will play true and fast with stimp speeds expected to get to over 12 this week.
The routing has changed since the last time we visited in 2021 with one of the par-5s reduced to a par-4, meaning that this year’s test will play as a Par 70 overall, although the fundamental test remains the same.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Magical Kenya Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event, on both the Challenge Tour and DP World Tour.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Magical Kenya Open Winners: 2025: Jacques Kruyswijk, 80/1; 2024: Darius van Driel, 80/1; 2023: Jorge Campillo, 45/1; 2022: Ashun Wu, 60/1; 2021: Justin Harding 33/1; 2019: Guido Migliozzi, 300/1.
Course Winners:
Karen Tour Final – Big Easy Tour: 2026: Njoroge Kibugu.
Kenya Savannah Classic – DPWT: 2021: Daniel van Tonder.
Magical Kenya Open – DPWT: 2021: Justin Harding; 2019: Guido Migliozzi.
Karen Masters – Sunshine Tour: 2019: Toto Thimba Jnr; 2018: Michael Palmer.
Kenya Open – Challenge Tour: 2016: Sebastian Soderberg; 2015: Haydn Porteous; 2014: Jake Roos; 2013: Jordi Garcia-Pinto; 2008: Iain Pyman; 2007: Edoardo Molinari; 2006: Johan Axgren; 2005: Daniel Vancsik; 2004: Marc Cayeux.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Nairobi is here.
Overnight rain on Wednesday could soften the course here in Nairobi ahead of three warm and sunny days with lights winds. Temperatures will push towards 30 Centigrade/86 Fahrenheit in the afternoons before cooler and wetter weather pushes in from the South on Sunday.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysis the winners for the last 5 events held here at Karen CC gives us a little insight into the requirements for this week’s task:
2021: Daniel van Tonder: 347.3 Yards (10th), 33.9% fairways (62nd), 73.6% greens in regulation (11th), 73.7% scrambling (13th), 1.63 putts per GIR (14th).
2021: Justin Harding: 300.6 Yards (44th), 44.6% fairways (30th), 70.8% greens in regulation (23rd), 76.2% scrambling (8th), 1.62 putts per GIR (10th).
2019 Karen Masters: Toto Thimba Jr. 308.3 Yards (12th), 53.6% fairways (12th), 75.0% greens in regulation (8th), 72.2% scrambling (3rd), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st).
2019 Kenya Open: Guido Migliozzi. 308.1 Yards (30th), 42.9% fairways (33rd), 69.5% greens in regulation (5th), 68.2% scrambling (11th), 1.66 putts per GIR (17th).
2018 Karen Masters: Michael Palmer. 46.4% fairways (21st), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 61.5% scrambling (14th), 1.73 putts per GIR (18th).
The first thing you’ll notice from the stats above is that driving accuracy figures are low, however GIR figures are still reasonably high, and this follows for those who also contended for each of the titles as well as the eventual winners.
Hitting fairways is tough here, however the penalty for missing the straight and narrow isn’t huge and players who are comfortable at finding greens from off of the fairways tend to prosper.
Maximising GIR is key then from wherever drives land, and in scoreable conditions taking advantage of the par 5s has also proven critical historically, however the change to this year’s par 70 setup is likely to negate that to some degree this time around.
Incoming Form. The incoming form of the last 6 winners of the Magical Kenya Open, plus the Kenya Savannah Classic held here in 2021, are as follows:
2025, Jacques Kruyswijk: MC/45/MC/7/MC/6/3/MC/21/38/MC/24
2024, Darius van Driel: MC/36/MC/25/MC/MC/MC/9/52/4/29/MC
Jacques Kruyswijk captured his maiden DP World Tour title at Muthaiga 12 months ago, building on a 24th place finish the week before at the Dimension Data Pro-Am on the Sunshine Tour and a notable 21st place finish at the Rolex-level Dubai Desert Classic to start his year.
Darius van Driel had shown signs of form at the back end of 2023 before winning at Muthaiga in February 2024. 9th at the Joburg Open came courtesy of a closing round of 63, and he improved on that finish a fortnight later at Leopard Creek to finish 4th overall. The Dutchman overcame a missed cut on his last start in Qatar to secure his maiden DP World Tour title in impressive style.
2023 winner Jorge Campillo had been largely off the boil at the start of 2023 before finding some form on his previous outing at the Hero Indian Open, eventually finishing 4th courtesy of a Strokes Gained positive performance in every category.
2022 winner Ashun Wu had some fairly solid if unspectacular results in his recent past before winning here, with a 12th place finish at the high-class Abu Dhabi Championship to start his 2022 campaign the highlight. 42nd on his previous start 3 weeks before didn’t give away many clues, although he did close with his best round of the week, a 68.
The three events prior to that were all held here at Karen County Club and each of Guido Migliozzi, Justin Harding and Daniel Van Tonder had missed the cut on their most recent start.
Course Form. Going all the way back to 2004, course form here at Karen CC has been pretty inconsequential for the eventual winner when played on this course specifically:
2026: Njoroge Kibugu: MC
2021: Daniel Van Tonder: 5/12/5/12/MC
2021: Justin Harding: 18/2
2019: Toto Thimba Jr: 46
2019: Guido Migliozzi: Debut
2018: Michael Palmer: 19
2016: Sebastian Soderberg: MC
2015: Haydn Porteous: 48
2014: Jake Roos: Debut
2013: Jordi Garcia-Pinto: Debut
2008: Iain Pyman: MC/49
2007: Edoardo Molinari: Debut
2006: Johan Axgren: 36
2005: Daniel Vancsik: 50
2004: Marc Cayeux: Debut
Event Form. For completeness, here’s the overall Kenya Open/Kenya Savannah Classic form of the seven winners at DP World Tour level form both venues combined:
2025, Jacques Kruyswijk: 7/MC/5/5/60/MC/11
2024, Darius van Driel: 8/12/MC/52/10/MC/11
2023, Jorge Campillo: 31/MC/MC/13
2022, Ashun Wu: Debut
2021, Daniel Van Tonder: 5/12/29/5/12/MC
2021, Justin Harding: 63/2
2019, Guido Migliozzi: Debut
Given the similarities between Muthaiga and Karen, perhaps this is a more relevant may to view the data this week and the event stats/combi stats pages include both sets of results accordingly.
For me, players with a preference for short courses and/or those with altitude impacting the ball flight is a positive; likewise those who have shown an ability to perform on quicker Bentgrass greens in the past should enjoy this setup.
My Final Magical Kenya Open Tips Are As Follows:
Thriston Lawrence 2pts EW 28/1 (6EW, 1/5) with BetMGM
With Jacques Kruyswijk defending the Magical Kenya Open title that he won last year at Muthaiga, plus the fact the our last two DP World Tour visits to this week’s venue, Karen Country Club, have seen Justin Harding and Daniel van Tonder take the title, backing another South African to succeed here makes a lot of sense and Thriston Lawrence is the player that excites me most.
A fabulous 2024 campaign saw the 29 year-old finish 3rd in the Race to Dubai rankings and secure the second of ten PGA Tour cards for the following season, fuelled by 4th at the Open Championship and four further runner-up finishes at DP World Tour level, including a play-off defeat to Billy Horschel at Wentworth.
Thriston’s State-side season proved to be challenging with 12th at the US Open and 8th at the Rocket Classic the standout results in an otherwise poor campaign, however he readily won a fifth DP World Tour title upon his return across the Atlantic by securing his second Omega European Masters trophy last August, and whenever he tees it up at this level he’s got to be given serious respect.
Wins at the Joburg Open, Omega European Masters (twice), South African Open and BMW International Open have all come on courses with varying degrees of altitude to contend with, and that makes him even more of a danger this week. He clearly gets the maths and clearly feels comfortable when calculations are required, a fact that’s reinforced by his 7th place finish here at the Karen Masters in 2019 on the Sunshine Tour.
14th at Alfred Dunhill Championship to close his 2025 campaign was followed by 10th at the Dubai Invitational at the start of this year to suggest that he’s in good enough nick overall to seriously contend here, despite missing the cut at the Dubai Desert Classic on his last start. 2nd at Muthaiga in 2022 is also of interest given that our last two Kenya Open champions had notable results on both courses used for this event, and I can see the Nelspruit native seriously contending here.
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Playing the Captain Obvious card, I’m also backing Callum Hill.
Runner-up in his last two outings and with Karen Country Club course form of 8th and 3rd from his last two attempts here, trying to pick holes in the argument to support him this week have proven difficult for me, so I’ll simply back him accordingly.
You could have argued with some justification that his inability to close out the Bahrain Championship from such a dominant halfway position would leave scars, particularly having had a lifeline in the eventual play-of which ultimately saw him concede the hole after making a proper mess of his drive and then his approach. 2nd the week after tells a story of resilience though, this time after a slower start and a strong weekend, and after a week’s rest perhaps we should take those two efforts as the positive results that they were overall.
8th here at the 2021 Kenya Open saw the 31 year-old in the mix throughout before failing to push the leaders on the final day; 3rd here at the Kenya Savannah Classic was the opposite, sitting in 25th spot heading into the weekend before the Scot shot 65/64 to scythe his way through the field.
Perhaps the bubble will burst this week, however I see no justification in avoiding this bet and will happily pay to see if Hill can convert on the third time of asking.
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Dan Bradbury 1.5pts EW 33/1 (6EW, 1/5) with BetMGM
Having backed Dan Bradbury at the Dubai Invitational to no avail when the Englishman finished in a tie for 30, I’m going back in again this week after he topped the field for GIR last time out in Qatar on his way to a 5th place finish.
22nd for GIR and 15th for SG Approach in a 2025 season where he missed as many cuts as he made tells us that there was nothing particularly wrong with his key strength, yet other areas of his game let him down. 155th for SG Around the Green and 151st for SG Putting – both metrics out of 175 players – tells us where the problems laid, however there have been signs with the putter that a corner may been turned – and that could make him dangerous here.
34th for SG Putting at the Emirates was has first positive putting performance since finishing runner-up at the Nedbank at the start of December, and the 26 year-old improved on that in Qatar, gaining over three strokes with the flat stick over the week. That’s not the be-all and end-all for Bradbury given his long-game prowess, however his best results have undoubtedly come when confidence with the putter has collided with excellent iron-play.
Victory at the 2022 Joburg Open ticks the altitude box, as does 5th at the Nedbank and 3rd at the Joburg Open the following year, plus the aforementioned runner-up finish at Sun City just over 2 months ago. This will be Dan’s competitive debut here in Kenya, however I suspect he’ll like what he sees.
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Todd Clements 1pt EW 50/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
A little further down the betting, Todd Clements interests me given he’s shown some quietly progressive form this year to date.
77 to open at the Dubai Desert Classic showed how rusty the Englishman was after the festive break, however 73 on the Friday was at least an improvement and from there he show 71/69/69/69 to finish in a tie for 24th in Bahrain. 20th in Qatar last time also featured positive 2nd and 4th rounds that were amongst the best on display on their respective days. 9th and 3rd over the those two events for SG Off the Tee and a field-leading SG Tee to Green performance in Bahrain are eye-catching stats from those past two outings.
This will be the 29 year-old’s Karen Country Club debut, however there’s plenty of altitude form to suggest that he can go well here. His breakthrough 2023 Czech Masters came on the outskirts of Prague where there’s a slight adjustment for the elevation; 3rd at last year’s co-sanctioned Barracuda Championship is further evidence that he can make the altitude adjustments, with that results coming at co-sanctioned PGA Tour level. 9th at the Joburg Open was more relevant early-season form from last year’s campaign, and with his exemptions from that aforementioned victory now long gone, adding a second title to his name will certainly make life a little easier for the Colchester man moving forwards.
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Matteo Manassero 1pt EW 90/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Finally I’ll close with a speculative punt on Matteo Manassero whose ceiling is way above many of those ahead of him in the market.
The 5-time DP World Tour winner is back at this level in 2026 following a difficult season on the PGA Tour where 6th at the Canadian Open – where he led heading into Sunday – was the only real highlight. As we’ve already seen with the aforementioned Thriston Lawrence – and many others before him – players dipping back down to this level having tasted the top division can often find the comfort and rekindle the form that had eluded them against tougher opposition.
That season in the USA was earned courtesy of a strong 2024 campaign that saw the Italian secure his first victory on Tour for over a decade at the Jonsson Workwear Open, which was another event of this kind of standard, played at altitude.
Form since his return to the DP World Tour hasn’t been great I grant you – hence the reason we’re getting the odds we are this week – however 18th into Sunday last time out showed some promise and top-12 rankings for both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green offer some encouragement.
The 32 year-old’s one and only start in Kenya came on this course back in 2019 and resulted in a missed cut after rounds of 73/72. That effort needs to be put in the context of an awful season that saw him miss 15 cuts from 17 starts as any semblance of form had deserted him almost completely, and I’m hoping for a massive improvement on that effort here this week.
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