Course Guide: Muirfield Village GC continually develops as a golfing test and 2025 sees a 7,569 yard, Par 72 set-up. This track has always been a cracker, hosting the 1987 Ryder Cup and the 2013 Presidents Cup, and is an original Nicklaus design – Jack to this day oversees all recent course development personally. As you’d expect from the pen of an 18-time Major Champion, the format stretches the world’s very best via a combination of attributes: this classical design features tree-lined fairways, tough bunkering, 13 holes with water in play, and over 110 acres of primarily Kentucky bluegrass rough which tends to be thick and lush. Severely undulating Bentgrass green complexes are a true work of art, with 14 of them seen only since 2021. If Jack gets the firm and releasing greens he likes then this will be a high-scoring affair this week.
Muirfield Village GC, Dublin, Ohio: Designer: Jack Nicklaus 1974, latest guise established 2021; Course Type: Classical, Up-State, Long; Par: 72; Length: 7,569 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 13; Number of Sand Bunkers: 68; Acres of Fairway: 24; Fairways: Bentgrass; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with Ryegrass/Fescue 4″; Greens: 5,000 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 11ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
- 2024: 73.50 (+1.50), Rank 4 of 51 courses
- 2023: 73.52 (+1.52), Rank 5 of 49 courses.
- 2022: 73.06 (+1.06), Rank 8 of 50 courses.
- 2021: 72.97 (+0.97), Rank 10 of 51 courses.
Muirfield Village Golf Club Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Muirfield Village and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
- Muirfield Village: 24-25 yards at 300 yards.
- Colonial: 25-30 yards at 300 yards.
- Quail Hollow: 28-30 yards at 300 yards.
- The Dunes Golf and Beach Club: 20 – 25 yards at 300 yards.
- Philadelphia Cricket Club: 30-32 yards at 300 yards.
- TPC Craig Ranch: 30 – 40 yards at 300 yards.
- Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
- Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
- Memorial Park: 30 – 40 yards at 300 yards.
- Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
- TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
- Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
- PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
- TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
- Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
- Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
- Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
- Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
- Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Jack Nicklaus PGA Tour designs include:
- Annandale Golf Club – Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013
- Castle Pines Golf Club – BMW Championship 2024
- Glen Abbey – RBC Canadian Open – 2008, 2013, 2015-2018
- Montreux Golf & Country Club – Barracuda Championship through 2019
- Old Greenwood GC – Barracuda Championship 2020-2023
- PGA National – Cognizant Classic
- PGA West – Nicklaus Private – Humana Challenge through 2015
- PGA West – Stadium Course – The American Express
- Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – World Challenge through 2013 + 2020 ZOZO Championship
- The Concession – WGC Workday Championship 2021
- Valhalla Golf Club – 2014 and 2024 PGA Championship
Course Overview: Muirfield Village has always been a great all-round classical golf test where both ball-striking and short game experts can contend with equal frequency. A typical Nicklaus design, each hole gets more difficult further away from the tee so those with consistent approach play have always been able to access flatter parts of the green complexes close to hole locations. Birdies are available for those with excellent course navigation, top notch scrambling, and naturally a chance-converting putter. A second-shot golf course where those who can find the right layers of the green complexes can make birdies. Put conversely, this classical design still has teeth for the wayward, poor scramblers and poor putters.
Muirfield Village since 2021 has also looked significantly different and as ever there was a certain level of disquiet from players who did not like the tough set-up. This quote from Jack Nicklaus himself highlights the key focus of the 2020 renovation and how Muirfield Village will continue to be prepared for his tournament ongoing: “My belief is that tournament golf should be a test to find out who is the best golfer that week. Far too many tournaments have eliminated the rough and firmness of greens, and that is just not my idea of what the game of golf should be. So I am going to stick with my old-fashioned beliefs about how the game of golf should be played and the way golf courses should be set up. The whole gamut of all shots is what the game of golf is all about. The game should challenge every facet of every club in the bag.”
Statistically the Muirfield Village course plays to 7,569 yards, up approaching 200 yards from the pre-2021 set-up. Most of that length was added to the par-5s with new tee boxes adding 20-30 yards to each. The par-4 1st Hole also had a new tee box added, taking that to 490 yards.
A summary of the renovation includes the fact that all greens were reconstructed with new Bentgrass, irrigation and Sub-Air Air systems. Most holes had their green complexes 100% re-contoured and rebuilt with significant bunker modifications. Fairway widths, which have always been generous here, were also pinched on certain holes – at around 310 yards – with all fairways featuring fresh Bentgrass fairway grass and associated Bluegrass/Ryegrass/Fescue rough.
Only green complexes on the 12th, 13th, 14th and 17th resemble the old design. All fairway and greenside bunkers were rebuilt, with fairway bunkers on the 1st, 15th and 17th strategically repositioned.
The biggest differences post-renovation were on the par-5s which used to play relatively short. New tee boxes were added to all 4 of them adding 100 yards to the scorecard. Number 5 was rebuilt in its entirety from tee to green with new fairway bunkers and extensive grade changes to the second and third shot landing zones, plus a water hazard placed in front of an entirely new green.
Player feedback has been that the course plays harder and that can be seen with the winning scores. The rough is thicker than before and many have talked about the risk/reward element and how it has turned towards laying-up rather than going for the green.
Memorial Tournament Winners: 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-8); 2023: Viktor Hovland (-7); 2022: Billy Horschel (-13); 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-13); 2020: Jon Rahm (-9); 2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19); 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15); 2017: Jason Dufner (-13); 2016: William McGirt (-15); 2015: David Lingmerth (-15); 2014: Hideki Matsuyama (-13); 2013: Matt Kuchar (-12); 2012: Tiger Woods (-8); 2011: Steve Stricker (-16); 2010: Justin Rose (-18).
- 2024: Scottie Scheffler 67-68-71-74 -8/280
- 2023: Viktor Hovland 71-71-69-70 -7/281
- 2022: Billy Horschel 70-68-65-72 -13/275 AM/PM Wave
- 2021: Patrick Cantlay 69-67-68-71 -13/275 PM/AM Wave
- 2020: Jon Rahm 69-67-68-75 -9/279 PM/AM Wave
- 2019: Patrick Cantlay 69-68-68-64 -19/269 PM/AM Wave
- 2018: Bryson DeChambeau 69-67-66-71 -15/273 AM/PM Wave
OWGR of Memorial Tournament Winners: 2024: Scheffler 1; 2023: Hovland 7; 2022: Horschel 17; 2021: Cantlay 15; 2020: Rahm 2; 2019: Cantlay 15; 2018: DeChambeau 38.
Memorial Cut Line: 2024: +4; 2023: +3; 2022: +2; 2021: +2; 2020: +3; 2019: +1; 2018: E.
Lead Score Progression:
- 2024: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -10; Round 4 -8.
- 2023: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -8; Round 3 -6; Round 4 -7.
- 2022: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -8; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -13.
- 2021: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -13.
- 2020: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -12; Round 4 -9.
- 2019: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -19.
- 2018: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -15.
Path to Victory: Below are end of round positions for the Memorial Tournament winners since 2010:
- 2024 – Scottie Scheffler: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2023 – Viktor Hovland: Round 1: 17th, Round 2: 18th, Round 3: 4th.
- 2022 – Billy Horschel: Round 1: 21st, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2021 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
- 2020 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
- 2019 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 8th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 3rd.
- 2018 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 16th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2017 – Jason Dufner: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 3rd.
- 2016 – William McGirt: Round 1: 44th, Round 2: 22nd, Round 3: 1st.
- 2015 – David Lingmerth: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
- 2014 – Hideki Matsuyama: Round 1: 21st, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 3rd
- 2013 – Matt Kuchar: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2012 – Tiger Woods: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 4th.
- 2011 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2010 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 4th.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the Memorial Tournament winners since 2010 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
- 2024 – Scottie Scheffler: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 3 ahead, Round 3: 4 ahead.
- 2023 – Viktor Hovland: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 8 back, Round 3: 1 back.
- 2022 – Billy Horschel: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 5 ahead.
- 2021 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 6 back.
- 2020 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 4 ahead.
- 2019 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2018 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
- 2017 – Jason Dufner: Round 1: level, Round 2: 5 ahead, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2016 – William McGirt: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: level.
- 2015 – David Lingmerth: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 3 back.
- 2014 – Hideki Matsuyama: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 2 back.
- 2013 – Matt Kuchar: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
- 2012 – Tiger Woods: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 4 back.
- 2011 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 3 ahead, Round 3: 3 ahead.
- 2010 – Justin Rose: Round 1: level, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 4 back.
Incoming Form of Memorial Tournament winners since 2010:
- Scottie Scheffler: 2nd Colonial/8th PGA/1st Harbour Town/1st Augusta.
- Viktor Hovland: 16th Colonial/2nd PGA/43rd Quail/59th Harbour Town.
- Billy Horschel: MC Colonial/68th PGA/2nd New Orleans/21st Harbour Town.
- Patrick Cantlay: 23rd PGA Championship/MC Quail/11th New Orleans/MC Augusta.
- Jon Rahm: 27th Workday/37th Travelers/33rd Heritage/MC Colonial.
- Patrick Cantlay: 3rd PGA Championship/3rd Harbour Town/9th Augusta/MC Sawgrass.
- Bryson DeChambeau: 42nd Colonial/37th TPC Sawgrass/4th Quail/3rd Harbour Town.
- Jason Dufner: MC Colonial/12th TPC4S/60th Sawgrass/5th New Orleans.
- William McGirt: 47th Colonial/43rd Sawgrass/17th Quail/37th TPC San Antonio.
- David Lingmerth: MC TPC4S/33rd Colonial/MC Quail/MC TPC Louisiana.
- Hideki Matsuyama: 10th Colonial/23rd TPC Sawgrass/38th Quail/MC Heritage.
- Matt Kuchar: 2nd Colonial/33rd TPC4S/48th TPC Sawgrass/35th Heritage.
- Tiger Woods: 40th TPC Sawgrass/MC Quail/40th Augusta/1st Bay Hill.
- Steve Stricker: 12th TPC Sawgrass/13th TPC Louisiana/11th Augusta/4th Houston.
- Justin Rose: 71st Colonial/10th Wentworth/MC TPC Sawgrass/43rd TPC Louisiana.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Collin Morikawa; 3) Patrick Cantlay; 4) Keegan Bradley; 5) Si Woo Kim; 6) Viktor Hovland; 7) Tony Finau; 8) Sepp Straka; 9) Xander Schauffele; 10) Hideki Matsuyama.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Memorial Tournament Winning Prices: 2024: Scheffler 15/4F; 2023: Hovland 20/1; 2022: Horschel 60/1; 2021: Cantlay 22/1; 2020: Rahm 22/1; 2019: Cantlay 18/1; 2018: DeChambeau 50/1; 2017: Dufner 66/1; 2016: McGirt 200/1; 2015: Lingmerth 500/1; 2014: Matsuyama 66/1; 2013: Kuchar 22/1; 2012: Woods 16/1; 2011: Stricker 28/1; 2010: Rose 80/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 26/1; Average: 78/1.
Historical Weather:
- 2024: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 80. Wind W 15-25 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 76. Wind W 15-22 mph, with gusts to 28 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 79. Wind SW 8-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
- 2023: Thursday: Sunny. High of 91. Wind E 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 93. Wind NE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind NE 10-18 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 86. Wind NE 10-18 mph.
- 2022: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers. Wind NW 7-12 mph. High of 71. Friday: Sunny. High of 76. Wind WNW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind NE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 81. Wind S 8-13 mph.
- 2021: Thursday: Cloudy with rain. High of 72. Wind SW 10-15 mph. Play was suspended and officials decided to cease play for the day at 6:41 p.m. The morning wave of 60 players completed the round. No player of the 60 in the afternoon wave completed the round. A total of 0.95” rainfall was recorded Thursday. Friday: Cloudy, with a high of 81. Wind WSW 8-13 mph. Early-morning fog delayed the scheduled 7:30 a.m. first-round resumption until 7:53 a.m. The first round was completed at 12:40 p.m. Saturday: R2 Mostly sunny. High of 86. Wind SW 12-16 mph. Round two resumed at 8 a.m. and concluded at 9:54 a.m. R3 Mostly sunny. High of 86. Wind SW 12-16 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with brief afternoon showers. High of 89. Wind SSW 10-15 mph. The final two pairings were held in place from 5:46-5:51 p.m. for a heavy rain shower.
- 2020: Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with light rain in the morning. High of 90. Wind SW 15-25 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind W 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 93. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny with intermittent showers. High of 96. Wind SW 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Due to a dangerous weather situation, play was suspended at 3:41 p.m. and resumed at 4:30 p.m. (49-minute delay).
- 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High of 72. Wind SW 10-20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind WSW 10-18 mph. Sunday: Cloudy. High of 70. Wind NW 12-22 mph.
- 2018: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SW 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Friday: Overcast with scattered showers and an afternoon thunderstorm which caused a 1 hour, 28-minute delay. High of mid-80s. Wind WNW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind N 10-15 mph. Sunday: Cloudy. High of 81. Wind W 10-15 mph, with gusts of 25 mph.
- 2017: Thursday: Mostly sunny skies in the morning became partly cloudy in the afternoon with a high of 77. Wind W 8-16 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 80. Wind WNW 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with a high of 84. Wind WNW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 85. Wind WSW 15-25 mph.
- 2016: Thursday: Mostly cloudy skies with a high of 82. Wind W at 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy skies with a high of 82. Wind N/NW at 8-12 mph. Saturday: Cloudy skies and periods of light rain with a high in the mid-70s. Wind S/SE at 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 79. Wind W/SW at 15-25 mph.
- 2015: Weather: Thursday: Cloudy, but drier in the afternoon, with highs reaching only into the lower 60s. North wind at 10-20 mph. A total of 1.3 inches of rain fell overnight and into the morning. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 76, with N wind at 7-12 mph. Saturday: Overcast, with a high of 76. Wind SE at 15-25 mph. Sunday: Due to the likeliness of inclement weather, final-round tee times were between 7-9 a.m. Cloudy with rain most of the day and a high of 79. Wind SSW at 10-20 mph.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Dublin, Ohio is here.
The PGA Tour moves to Ohio and conditions will be far different to what we saw in Texas last week. Moderate temperatures of 14-23 Celsius – 57-73 Fahrenheit – are slightly down on what we saw here in 2024 with Friday, Saturday and Sunday looking very northern European. 14 degrees Celsius – 57 Fahrenheit is around 20 degrees down on last week in Fort Worth.
Wind will again be a feature this week with a 15-20 mph north-westerly in-play on Friday and Saturday. Thursday is the day for scoring with light winds and a 75% chance of rain Tuesday into Wednesday morning, making the course as receptive as it will get. Jack though will ensure that the Sub-Air is on full power throughout to make this the toughest challenge he can.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Valero Texas Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Daniel Berger; 3) Taylor Pendrith / J.J. Spaun; 5) Patrick Cantlay / Corey Conners / Xander Schauffele; 8) Jhonattan Vegas; 9) Jordan Spieth; 10) Tony Finau / Maverick McNealy; 12) Thomas Detry / Min Woo Lee / Adam Scott; 15) Cameron Young; 16) Harris English / Sungjae Im; 18) Shane Lowry; 19) Robert MacIntyre / Collin Morikawa / Aaron Rai; 22) Keegan Bradley / Austin Eckroat / Rickie Fowler; 25) Viktor Hovland.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Viktor Hovland; 3) Daniel Berger / Corey Conners; 5) Brian Campbell; 6) Aaron Rai; 7) Sepp Straka; 8) Alex Noren; 9) Eric Cole; 10) Keegan Bradley / Shane Lowry; 12) Lucas Glover / Ben Griffin / Justin Rose; 15) Patrick Cantlay; 16) Tony Finau; 17) Matti Schmid; 18) Tommy Fleetwood; 19) Tom Hoge; 20) Harris English; 21) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Austin Eckroat / Si Woo Kim / Andrew Novak / J.J. Spaun.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Keegan Bradley; 2) Tommy Fleetwood / Ryan Gerard / Justin Thomas; 5) Wyndham Clark; 6) Min Woo Lee; 7) Matt Fitzpatrick; 8) Andrew Novak; 9) Byeong Hun An / Xander Schauffele; 11) Michael Kim / Sam Stevens; 13) Alex Noren / Jordan Spieth; 15) Lucas Glover / Sungjae Im / Shane Lowry / Maverick McNealy / Aaron Rai; 20) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Denny McCarthy; 22) Russell Henley; 22) Harris English / Tom Hoge / Nick Taylor; 25) Stephan Jaeger / Brandt Snedeker.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Keegan Bradley; 3) Daniel Berger; 4) Corey Conners / Tommy Fleetwood / Aaron Rai; 7) Xander Schauffele; 8) Harris English; 9) Tony Finau; 10) Shane Lowry; 11) Ryan Gerard / Andrew Novak / Jhonattan Vegas; 14) Viktor Hovland; 15) Si Woo Kim / Alex Noren; 17) Matt Fitzpatrick / Maverick McNealy / Jordan Spieth; 20) Patrick Cantlay / Ben Griffin / Justin Thomas; 23) Bud Cauley; 24) Michael Kim / J.J. Spaun / Sepp Straka.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Sam Burns / Max Greyserman; 3) Denny McCarthy; 4) Brian Harman; 5) J.T. Poston; 6) Eric Cole; 7) Justin Thomas; 8) Akshay Bhatia; 9) Scottie Scheffler; 10) Xander Schauffele; 11) Sam Stevens / Sepp Straka; 13) Harry Higgs / J.J. Spaun; 15) Max Homa; 16) Matthieu Pavon / Adam Scott; 18) Sungjae Im / Collin Morikawa; 20) Viktor Hovland / Jordan Spieth / Cameron Young; 23) Ben Griffin / Thomas Detry; 25) Rickie Fowler / Mackenzie Hughes.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Xander Schauffele; 3) Corey Conners; 4) J.T. Poston / Jordan Spieth; 6) Eric Cole; 7) Si Woo Kim / Justin Thomas; 9) Shane Lowry; 10) Harris English / Ben Griffin / Viktor Hovland; 13) Daniel Berger / Keegan Bradley / Denny McCarthy / Andrew Novak; 17) Tommy Fleetwood / J.J. Spaun / Sepp Straka; 20) Sam Burns / Max Greyserman / Sungjae Im / Alex Noren; 24) Ryan Gerard / Brian Harman / Aaron Rai.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Memorial Tournament winners here at Muirfield Village since 2021 (course re-design) gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
- 2024, Scottie Scheffler (-8). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 35th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 22nd.
- 2023, Viktor Hovland (-7). SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 26th, SG Around the Green: 31st, SG Tee to Green: 12th, SG Putting: 3rd.
- 2022, Billy Horschel (-13). SG Off the Tee: 7th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 13th.
- 2021, Patrick Cantlay (-13). SG Off the Tee: 3rd, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 19th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
- SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 18th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 14th.
Across the 2021 to 2024 Memorial renewals, statistically from a Stroke Gained perspective the winners gained on average 2.98 strokes per round from Tee to Green (77%) and 0.89 Putting (23%).
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Memorial Tournament winners here since 2021 (course re-design) gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:
- 2024, Scottie Scheffler (-8). 293 yards (16th), 67.9% fairways (22nd), 69.4% greens in regulation (1st), 63.6 % scrambling (12th), 1.68 putts per GIR (13th).
- 2023, Viktor Hovland (-7). 317 yards (17th), 53.6% fairways (51st), 56.9% greens in regulation (19th), 61.3 % scrambling (21st), 1.63 putts per GIR (9th).
- 2022, Billy Horschel (-13). 285 yards (59th), 76.8% fairways (7th), 73.6% greens in regulation (1st), 84.2 % scrambling (1st), 1.74 putts per GIR (43rd).
- 2021, Patrick Cantlay (-13). 303 yards (8th), 66.1% fairways (28th), 75.0% greens in regulation (1st), 66.7 % scrambling (6th), 1.67 putts per GIR (20th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
- Driving Distance: 25th, Driving Accuracy: 27th, Greens in Regulation: 6th, Scrambling: 10th, Putting Average 21st.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Muirfield Village click here.
Let’s take a view from players as to how Muirfield Village Golf Club sets up and what skill sets the course favours – comments from 2021 onwards refer to the renovated course they play this week:
Scottie Scheffler (2024): “I was surprised with how firm it was when we first got here on Tuesday. The rain yesterday, I think, really softened it up. As long as the rain holds off the rest of the week with the winds we’re supposed to get, the golf course is going to be really, really challenging. There’s so many little areas where you have to put the ball, and when the greens get firm and the wind starts blowing, it can be extremely challenging to hit it into some of those small portions of the greens.
Even with wedges in your hands, I think of holes like No. 3 and No. 14, I mean, it’s kind of hard to describe how small they really look back there from the fairway. Anytime I get it back there on the green on No. 3 like where the pin was today, it’s a great shot. It’s not just a good shot. It’s a great shot. So that’s with soft greens. When the greens get firmer, it’s only going to get more challenging.
On 15 I had about 235 pin. It was just a kind of nice hold 3-iron and, yeah, felt like I had a good number and it’s nice when I have a number where I want to cut it and the pin’s on the right and that was one of those instances. So I was able to hit a really nice shot in there pretty close to the pin and hole the putt.
Like, No. 5’s a hole where you almost need spin off the tee just because the fairway’s so narrow up there and, really, I’m trying to control my distance more than trying to hit it far. So if I’m going to try and knuckle one, it would be me trying to hit it further, and on that specific hole, I’m kind of trying to keep the ball at a certain distance.
It was pretty windy out there. I just tried to do my best to execute. Teddy, I think, did a really good job of getting most of the winds right for the day and that’s a pretty challenging task, I think, around this golf course, especially when the wind’s are up, just because have you so many trees that kind of block it and when it’s gusty, it can be really challenging and start blowing from directions where it’s not quite supposed to at times. That’s another one of the challenges of playing this golf course. But I felt like we did a good job today of executing and putting ourselves in the right spots out there.”
Viktor Hovland (2023): “Obviously I feel like I’ve won a decent amount of tournaments for only being a pro for four years; however, they have been at low key places, resort courses, and abroad, so it feels really cool to get my first win on the U.S. soil, especially at a tournament like this where this week the golf course is arguably harder than most major championship golf courses we play and the crowds were amazing out there. It felt like a major. So it was a really cool that I was able to get it done at a place like this.
I think birdieing 15, that got me to 6-under for the tournament and I saw that I was tied with Scottie. And I thought 6-under could potentially have a chance because those finishing holes are brutal. Obviously, you can make a birdie coming in, but it’s just so easy to make a bogey. You can hit a decent shot, but if it catches a bad bounce or you cut it away from the pin and it just bounces firmly, you end up in the bunker and now you’ve got a brutal up-and-down. If it would have been Thursday or Friday, you’re just trying to go through there unscathed making par, or even 1-over through that stretch is actually not that bad.
I haven’t played all that great here in the past. I’ve always seemed to play okay, make the cut, but then make a couple of birdies throughout the round, but I would always kind of short-side myself. Then I didn’t have the short game that I have right now, so when you do end up on the down slope and you need to be able to spin the ball or slow the ball down, I just couldn’t do that. So it would be kind of a double whammy for me before. I would short-side myself and I didn’t have any tools around the green to slow the ball down, and now I can’t even keep the chip on the green. So you’re just always grinding.
But this week I told myself that when I’m out of position just play for the fatter part of the green and if I miss the green, I still have a shot where I can roll the ball up or slow the ball down enough to get it close to the pin. So I knew this was kind of going to be a competition of not making any double bogeys or making too many mistakes.”
Billy Horschel (2022): “Hopefully the greens firm up a little bit, get a little bit quicker. Tuesday were probably the firmest I’ve ever seen them. But I think the fairways are pretty generous around here. Some of the widest fairways we play all year. Putting the ball in the fairway is crucial, to start with. But having control of your second shot, it’s a very second-shot golf course in my opinion.
I think it just goes back to understanding what’s a good golf shot, understanding where you need to miss it on this golf course to have a chance to get up-and-down. Yeah, I’ve put myself probably in a couple bad spots over the last two days, but I’ve been fortunate that I’ve hit really good shots and made a putt. With the firmer greens you have to be really precise on where you’re trying to land the golf shot, the trajectory you’re trying to hit it, the shape you’re trying to hit it. We’ve just been very clear on all of that.
And on 15, I was 5-wood in there, perfect 5-wood, 241 front, 244 or five hole. And we had the wind slight in off the left which was perfect for me, just started in the middle of the bunker and hit a little bit of a cut, let the wind take it back to the pin. It was just a beautiful shot that I hit.”
Aaron Wise (2022): “Felt like about as good as I could shoot with how I drove the ball, so I’m super pleased with it. The course is firming up. It’s playing tricky. I felt like I hit my irons great, chipped and putted great. The one thing I could clean up is how I drove the ball today. This is a course I feel like you can kind of attack a little bit if you’re in the fairway. But if you’re in the rough you’re scrambling from everywhere. You can’t hold these greens with how firm they are and it becomes a really tricky golf course to play. I felt like I did that a lot of today, and somehow was able to putt really well and chip really well and shoot 3-under. But I would love to be able to put the ball in the fairway and get a few more looks at birdie tomorrow.”
Rory McIlroy (2022): “Yeah, I think like Muirfield and I have had a bit of a complicated relationship. It seemed to fit me quite well earlier in my career and then the last few years, I’ve sort of maybe struggled with the strategy of how to play it. I feel like a lot of the fairways here pinch in around 310, so it allows the sort of average hitters to hit driver.”
“For an example, last year I played with Viktor Hovland the first two days, and the first hole, he can hit driver sort of right to where the bottleneck starts. I can’t hit driver because I’ll hit it too far but then I hit 3-wood, you know, 15 or 20 yards short of his driver. So I’m hitting 6-iron or 7-iron in and he’s hitting an 8-iron or a 9-iron in.”
“So it just seems like the length advantage has sort of been nullified here over the last few years. So it’s just finding a different way to play the golf course. A lot more 3-woods. I’ve actually went to one of my old 3-woods this week that’s a lower lofted. It’s sort of like a 2-wood in a way which I think will be good to utilize this week.”
Patrick Cantlay (2021): “I never changed my mind. I was 268 or 270 front. It’s all cover over water and it’s into the wind. So even my best 3-wood is about 270 and that’s not into the wind or anything. So with the new length on all these par-5s, it’s a lot of laying up. I’ve never laid up as much this week around this golf course on the par-5s by a long ways. So the par-5s are playing a lot more difficult and I think that’s why scoring’s worse this year compared to previous years. Especially considering how this golf course in the past has played. But that’s just the way it is now and I’m sure if the fairways firm out a little bit you will be able to hit the ball a little further and maybe get to some of the par-5s.
Rory McIlroy (2021): “No, it’s the redesign of the holes. Especially the par-5 5th green, I went for it today and hit a pretty good shot, but even, I hit a great shot straight over the pin into the back bunker and, I mean, you would rather be 90 yards away hitting a sort of a nice wedge shot in there, you can get it way closer. So I think people are just realizing it’s, you’re probably more likely to make birdie just by laying up and, which is a shame, because it’s sort of exciting to get to go for par-5s and it’s sort of taken that a little bit out of play.”
“As it fries out, it will make people even more wary of going for the par-5s in two. Like I went for one par-5 today and made 6 and laid up on the others and had birdie chances. I’ve made more birdies this week by laying up than I have going for the green.”
“I think what’s happened here is everyone is just now playing from the same spot with their second shot, so it’s really become, and it’s not an easy driving golf course by any means, but everyone is hitting to the same spot. So I guess there’s no different strategies off the tee, it’s just sort of everyone goes and does this and then they go from there. So it’s sort of hard for, you look how condensed the field is, it’s hard to separate yourself when a design is like that.”
Jon Rahm (2020): “Well, this is only the second time I’m playing. My first time was 2017. I don’t remember it being this windy or firm. It’s tough. I mean, there are some holes out there that are really difficult. That 16th green, I actually thought I hit a pretty good shot and couldn’t stop it, so you have to hit an amazing shot to actually keep it on the green. It’s a test out there. It’s more how golf should be. I’m glad for once we’re not having a week where it becomes a putting contest and see who shoots 20-plus under par. Hopefully it keeps being a test and hopefully I can keep playing good golf and make those clutch putts.
I told Adam walking down 18, I said, they should — Adam, my caddie, for people who don’t know, they should just allow people, whoever wants to play, to come tomorrow in the same conditions we did. Cut the greens, make sure they’re the same speed, flags on the same spots, just for people to see. We were thinking the club champion, the scratch club champion might not break 80 here today. It’s that difficult a golf course. And I can say, because of that, today could be one of the best rounds of golf I’ve played in my life. It’s unbelievable, and it’s hard to believe how passively it came compared to how I played usually.”
Patrick Cantlay (2019): “I like this golf course a lot. It’s in great shape. And puts a serious premium of driving the ball in the fairway, which is one of my strengths. I feel comfortable around here, and it’s nice to be here. I feel like I know the lines and what to expect. The golf course suits my game. There’s a huge premium on driving the golf ball long in the fairway. And if you can control your distance coming into the greens, you can have a lot of looks. The greens are really slopey, and there’s a lot of hole locations where the ball gathers to the hole. And being able to know your distance and knowing where to leave it so it will feed to the hole is important. And I feel like being back here my third year I’m getting a better feel of it. And I’m starting to feel really comfortable around the golf course.”
Bryson DeChambeau (2018): ” Yeah, I played really well here (Columbus, Ohio). I love the grass. It’s super familiar. Back home in Fresno, California we have the same type of grass, relatively speaking. You go over to Monterey, it’s kind of the same as well. So I’ve played a lot of golf over there, I’m just comfortable with these types of, this type of grass. For whatever reason it seems to be that, out of this grass relative to Bermuda, it’s just way easier to kind of control the ball out of those types of lies, because in Bermuda you can sometimes get these massive jumpers, like incredibly massive, 30-yard jumpers. And out of this type of rough you only get about 15- to 20-yard jumpers. So in that regard I’m more comfortable and was just able to conquer it this week.”
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
- 2024 – Hadwin – Group 23 -6/66 – 90/1.
- 2023 – Riley – PM -5/67 – 100/1.
- 2022 – Hughes/K.H. Lee/List/Riley/Smith/Young – 4AM/2PM -5/67 – 150/1, 100/1, 100/1, 50/1, 33/1 & 45/1.
- 2021 – Morikawa – AM -6/66 – 28/1.
- 2020 – Finau – PM -6/66 – 66/1.
- 2019 – Moore – AM -7/65 – 100/1.
- 2018 – Ancer / Niemann / Matsuyama – 2AM/1PM -7/65 – 175/1, 100/1 & 45/1.
- 2017 – Dufner / Lingmerth – AM/PM Split -7/65 – 55/1 & 90/1.
- 2016 – D Johnson – AM -8/64.
- 2015 – Matsuyama / Van Pelt – Both PM -8/64.
- 2014 – McIlroy – PM -9/63.
- 2013 – Schwartzel – AM -7/65.
- 2012 – Stallings – PM -6/66.
- 2011 – McIlroy / Riley – AM/PM Split -6/66.
- 2010 – Fowler / Rose – AM/PM Split -7/65.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 7 – Justin Rose.
- 5 – Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas.
- 4 – Hideki Matsuyama.
- 3 – Keegan Bradley, Lucas Glover, Xander Schauffele, Adam Scott, Jhonattan Vegas.
- 2 – Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Brian Harman, Chris Kirk, Matt Kuchar, J.T. Poston, Sepp Straka.
- 1 – Daniel Berger, Sam Burns, Wyndham Clark, Ben Griffin, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Michael Kim, Collin Morikawa, Taylor Pendrith, Brandt Snedeker, Davis Thompson.
The winner’s list over the past 10 years at the Memorial Tournament reads David Lingmerth (500/1), William McGirt (200/1) Jason Dufner (66/1), Bryson DeChambeau (50/1), Patrick Cantlay (18/1), Jon Rahm (22/1), Patrick Cantlay (22/1), Billy Horschel (60/1), Viktor Hovland (20/1) and Scottie Scheffler (15/4F). And with the U.S. Open just over a fortnight away, the top players are positioning themselves for the season’s third Major Championship in Dublin, Ohio this week, just as they always have way before the notion of an elevated event.
The Memorial is often a tournament where you don’t want to hit the front too early, but undoubtedly quality players have generally topped the leaderboard come close of play on Sunday. Tiger’s wins in 2009 and 2012 came at 3/1 and 16/1 respectively. Justin Rose’s first PGA Tour victory in 2010 came at 80/1 a fortnight after a 10th place finish at Wentworth. Steve Stricker won at 28/1 in 2011. Matt Kuchar and Hideki Matsuyama victories here in 2013 and 2014 both followed contending performances the week prior at Colonial, with both players being priced at 22/1 and 66/1 respectively.
Since 2018, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Billy Horschel, Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler have won this coveted title at 50/1, 18/1, 22/1, 22/1, 60/1, 20/1 and 15/4F respectively. For DeChambeau (2018), Cantlay (2019) and Hovland (2023) these were breakout victories, after previously landing their maiden PGA Tour titles at lesser events. Rahm’s victory in 2020 was also arguably his biggest career victory to that point, and was his first singles win on the PGA Tour for 2 and a half years. He would have defended his title in 2021 as well if it wasn’t for a positive Covid test when he was 6 shots ahead heading into Sunday. Step forward Patrick Cantlay who got to shake hands with Jack Nicklaus for the second time in 2 years. 2022 saw Billy Horschel come from the blindside to win at 60/1 with inbound form of MC-68-2(Team Event)-21-43 and nothing better than a backdoor 9th (2019) from 8 previous Memorial outings. Scottie Scheffler’s win here 12 months ago followed on from form of 1-1-2-1-1-8-2, with the 2nd being at Colonial on his outing before.
All-in-all this plethora of sub-100/1 winners is hardly a surprise when you consider that every winner of The Memorial since 2003 apart from 2 (Lingmerth 2015 & McGirt 2016) have ranked in the Official World Golf Ranking top 75. Let’s look into those bigger price wins as well.
Nicklaus course specialist David Lingmerth landed his maiden title here in 2015 with inbound form of MC-33-MC-MC-MC. You won’t be surprised to read that the Swede was a 500/1 chance. Fast-forward to 2016 where Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Matt Kuchar and Gary Woodland were all in the mix, but eventually it became a shoot-out between Jon Curran (400/1) and William McGirt (250/1) in a play-off, both of whom were chasing maiden PGA Tour titles. World Number 102 McGirt captured his first title since he played the Tarheel Tour in 2007, coming off immediate form of 47-43-17-37. He had delivered 3 top-9 finishes and a further 2nd in the season prior to winning in Ohio though.
2017 saw World Number 65 Jason Dufner beat Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar and Justin Thomas to take his 5th PGA Tour victory at 66/1. Jason showed grit and resolve on a fast Sunday golf course, taking on the likes of 54-hole leader Kuchar, Bubba Watson, Thomas and playing partner Rickie Fowler to comfortably win in the end by 3 shots.
