Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Nexo Championship Tips 2025

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The DP World Tour returns this week with the resurrection of the Scottish Championship, an event last played in the post-Covid period in 2020, with a new title sponsor Nexo (a Cryptocurrency asset platform) and a new venue at Trump International in Aberdeen, so for all intents and purposes this can be treated as a new event for us to contend with.

After a fortnight off and longer for those not involved in the Scottish Open and Open Championship, it’s fair to say that the Tour regulars are hardly chomping at the bit to play this week in what’ a decidedly weak affair. Marco Penge heads the betting at around 12-14/1, with the likes of Jordan Smith and Kristoffer Reitan following on behind in this 156-man field.

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Course Overview: This year’s venue is Trump International Golf Links, a 7,439 yard par 72 at a golf club that’s been very much in the public eye since the US President flew in last week to meet the UK Prime Minister and open the new course here while he was in the area.

While the new course isn’t ready for public or professional consumption just yet, the ‘old’ course we’re playing this week is a modern links designed my Martin Hawtree opened in 2012, and this coastal gem set between towering dunes alongside the Aberdeenshire shoreline looks stunning enough that even the links purists may allow a subtle nod of appreciation.

The fescue-lined fairways narrow in strategic landing areas to ensure that players can’t simply overpower the course, and typically penal links bunkering waits to punish players who are either off-line or overly aggressive. That said, this isn’t a short course by any stretch of the imagination and players will need to take driver out more than is overly comfortable if they’re going to make a score around here.

Both sets of nine start with a Par 5 to give players a chance to get their score moving, and another long hole on each side presents chances, as does the driveable par-4 7th, however this course is no pushover from the limited information we have and playing for par on the tougher holes is the order of the day, particular when the wind blows.

A number of the greens are elevated above the level of the fairway with run-off areas for misjudged approach shots, with the putting surfaces themselves featuring a Bentgrass base.

nexo championship tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Nexo Championship that will help to shape a view on players who could play well at this event: Current Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

With Monday’s wind and rain from Storm Floris a distant memory by the time players tee off on Thursday, the tournament days itself look largely dry save for the odd shower with a moderate breeze of around 15mph give or take throughout. Temperatures will nudge towards 19-20 Celsius, so the high-60s Fahrenheit, which will feel pleasant enough in the Scottish sunshine.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors.

As so often is the case, we have very little to work with for this week with no prior DP World Tour event having been played on the course and what events have been hosted here not featuring any tangible statistics.

For completeness, the events held here at Trump International Golf Links are as follows:

  • 2025 PGA Seniors Championship: Bo Van Pelt (-3)
  • 2024 Tartan Tour Championship: Calum Fife (-2, 54 holes)
  • 2024 PGA Seniors Championship: Robert Coles (-4)
  • 2023 PGA Seniors Championship: Peter Baker (-12)

Of course the yardages will differ from those used for this week’s event – the Seniors event last week for instance was around 6,900 yards – however what those results and scores do tell us is that the layout can present quite a challenge when the wind blows.

Links tracks appeal to some players more than others, plus a moderate breeze helps us to narrow the field. Bentgrass-based greens are also a more common feature of this type of course than inland tracks and also suggest that those who’ve played well on similar setups may be more comfortable here, so looking for UK & Ireland-based links (or links-style) form could be the best starting point.

My final selections are as follows:

Marco Penge 3pts EW 14/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

In what can only be described as a weak event with even some of the more regular DP World Tour stalwarts taking an extended summer break, Marco Penge can’t be ignored as he continues his seemingly inexorable march towards a PGA Tour card for next season.

Progressive form of 28th at the US PGA Championship, 25th at the Soudal Open, 21st at the Italian Open, 11th at the BMW International Open, and 2nd at the Scottish Open was finally halted at Royal Portrush, however a significant drop in level may well see the Englishman pick up his second win of the season and leapfrog Haotong Li into pole position to collect the first of 10 State-side cards for 2026.

Power is the 27 year-old’s biggest weapon and he put that to get use at another links-style layout at Renaissance, however the extra Par-5 here this week can only help his cause and the lengthy Par-4s can easily be brought down to size if he can keep himself in play from off the tee. Strokes gained in every category in that Open Championship warm-up, his Off the Tee performance impressed as ever plus he ranked inside the top-10 for SG Tee to Green for the third week in succession as he demonstrated that he can perform on this type of terrain.

A new course for all but a couple of the lower-grade players making an appearance here levels the playing field from an experience perspective, and with pleasant enough conditions expected after a little pre-event rain over the past week as well as Storm Floris, this week sets up beautifully for the Clitheroe native.

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Grant Forrest 1pt EW 60/1 (6EW, 1/5) with William Hill

A return to Scottish soil saw Grant Forrest produce some eye-catching figures at Renaissance last month, and with another local fixture ahead of him I can see the North Berwick man putting in a strong performance just a relatively short drive up the coast from his home.

22nd in a very strong field at the Scottish Open saw Forrest top the field for both SG Tee to Green and SG Around the Green whilst ranking inside the top-13 for the other three key metrics, and this lower grade has got to present an opportunity for him to double his DP World Tour tally.

His victory at the 2021 Hero Open holds plenty of relevance to this week as it came on a scoreable Fairmont St Andrews course wedged between his home and this week’s test on the east coast of Scotland. A pair of top-10 finishes at the Dunhill Links in recent times adds to his case this week, and he of course has a wealth of amateur experience on links courses to peak any punters interest for this week.

Renaissance aside, a disappointing season thus far sees the 32 year-old sitting in 112th place on the Race to Dubai, which is currently the last projected place for keeping a card for next season. Although we’re a long way from push becoming shove in that respect, keeping ahead of the game with a strong outing here this week would do his prospects no harm whatsoever as he looks to emulate what he did in this very same week 4 years ago and secure a victory.

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Brandon Robinson-Thompson 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

I’ve backed Brandon Robinson-Thompson a few times this season to no avail, however on a course fresh to most of this field I’m happy to give the Isle of Wight man another chance this week.

8th at the Bahrain Championship, 3rd at the Qatar Masters, 7th at the Joburg Open and 4th at the Turkish Airlines Open are the highlights of an impressive rookie season that sees him sitting in 34th on the Race to Dubai ahead of this week’s event and in with a great chance of making it all the way to the Earth Course later this year.

Wins on the MENA Tour, EuroPro Tour and Clutch Pro Tour preceded a pair of wins on the Challenge Tour, both of which came relatively close to home at the 2023 Irish Challenge and the 2024 Scottish Challenge, with the latter coming just a few miles inland from this week’s test at Newmachar Golf Club.

The 32 year-old had shown some form the year before on that Aberdeenshire heathland track, finishing a never-nearer 3rd after a closing 64, and that completed a Scottish form line of 4/3/1 as he’d contended throughout at the previous year’s Scottish Masters on the EuroPro Tour too.

With August form last year of 3/1/6/14 which included his win in this part of the world, suffice it to say he found his best form in this part of the calendar 12 months ago. After a small taste of PGA Tour co-sanctioned golf earlier this month he returns to a more familiar level this week where he could do some damage.

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Joakim Lagergren 1pt EW 110/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally, although backing Joakim Lagergren should come with a health (or wealth) warning, I’m happy to take a chance on the Swede on compatible terrain.

Having stepped up from the Nordic circuit, Lagergren’s breakthrough Challenge Tour win came in Northern Ireland at Galgorm Castle in 2014 before picking up his one and to date only victory at DP World Tour level at the coastal Rocco Forte Sicilian Open in 2018. Victory at the Palmer South Course at the K Club at the start of August last year, on a course that’s very much in the inland links category, ticks both the biorhythms and course fit boxes. That was the first of two Challenge Tour wins in quick succession last summer, and he’s shown enough on occasions since then to make my team here.

8th at the Bahrain Championship on an exposed track just inland from the sea earlier this year was noteworthy in respect of this week’s task, as was 2nd at the KLM Open on another exposed track. Both efforts came off the back of indifferent (if I’m being polite) form, so MC/MC/49 coming into this isn’t the end of the world – instead I’ll look to his Dunhill Links form for the final piece of inspiration.

4th (2015), 4th (2016), 3rd (2019) and 2nd (2021) are impressive finishes for Joakim on the Tour’s annual jaunt around the Scottish links courses, and given his performances there over the years there’s every reason to suggest that he’ll like what he sees when he arrives here up the coast in Aberdeen this week.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:00BST 4.8.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.