The DP World Tour heads to Scotland this week for the Nexo (a Cryptocurrency asset platform) Championship for what will be the second year in succession and third renewal in total if you tentatively include the event’s predecessor, the Scottish Championship, which was played in the Covid aftermath in 2020.
Race to Dubai leader Patrick Reed heads this week’s betting at a general 9/1 as he looks to extend his lead in the rankings over Rory McIlroy before the Northern Irishman heads back this side of the Atlantic after the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Eugenio Chacarra and Casey Jarvis follow Captain America in the betting at around the 12/1 to 14/1 mark, with the likes of Keita Nakajima and Jacob Skov Olesen following closely behind.
Course Overview: A modern links designed my Martin Hawtree and opened in 2012, this coastal gem set between towering dunes alongside the Aberdeenshire shoreline looks stunning enough that even the links purists may allow a subtle nod of appreciation.
The fescue-lined fairways narrow in strategic landing areas to ensure that players can’t simply overpower the course, and typically penal links bunkering waits to punish players who are either off-line or overly aggressive. That said, this isn’t a short course by any stretch of the imagination at 7,439 yards for its par of 72 and players will need to take driver out more than is overly comfortable if they’re going to make a score around here.
Both sets of nine start with a Par 5 to give players a chance to get their score moving, and another long hole on each side presents chances, as does the driveable par-4 7th, however this course is no pushover from what we saw last year and playing for par on the tougher holes is the order of the day, particular when the wind blows.
A number of the greens are elevated above the level of the fairway with run-off areas for misjudged approach shots, with the putting surfaces themselves featuring a Bentgrass base.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Nexo Championship that will help to shape a view on players who could play well at this event: Current Form | First Round Leader | Event Stats | Combined Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
Aberdeen in August can be a little mixed in terms of the weather and the latest forecast suggests that it will feel a little more like October with chilly mornings, gloomy and damp afternoons, and a nagging 15-18mph breeze. Temperatures will peak around 17 Centigrade/63 Fahrenheit.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the top 5 finishers here at Trump Aberdeen last year gives a little more insight into what’s required to succeed on this track:
- 1st, Grant Forrest (-8). 293 yards (7th), 62.5% fairways (37th), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 65% scrambling (3rd), 1.77 putts per GIR (11th)
- 2nd, Joe Dean (-4). 280 yards (43rd), 62.5% fairways (37th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 52.6% scrambling (30th), 1.79 putts per GIR (24th)
- 3rd, Jacob Skov Olesen (-3). 275 yards (55th), 58.9% fairways (49th), 65.3% greens in regulation (28th), 48% scrambling (43rd), 1.77 putts per GIR (9th)
- 3rd, John Parry (-3). 283 yards (30th), 78.6% fairways (2nd), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 60% scrambling (10th), 1.79 putts per GIR (20th)
- 3rd, Kristoffer Reitan (-3). 285 yards (21st), 73.2% fairways (8th), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 65% scrambling (3rd), 1.81 putts per GIR (32nd)
Driving distance certainly wasn’t the be-all and end-all here last year, with a more controlled strategy and maximising GIR the route to success. Scrambling wasn’t easy last year in blustery conditions, so those capable of saving par more than the average were better placed to excel.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the top 5 finishers last year ranked as follows:
- 1st, Grant Forrest: T: 9th; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 23rd P: 13th
- 2nd, Joe Dean: T: 18th; A: 27th; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 4th; P: 24th
- 3rd, Jacob Skov Olesen: T: 34th; A: 17th; T2G: 9th; ATG: 16th; P: 11th
- 3rd, John Parry: T: 3rd; A: 29th; T2G: 10th; ATG: 40th; P: 9th
- 3rd, Kristoffer Reitan: T: 2nd; A: 7th; T2G: 5th; ATG: 62nd; P: 19th
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
The most consistent statistic was SG Tee to Green, with the leading 5 players all ranking inside the top 10 on that metric for the week. Jordan Smith, who finished solo 6th, ranked 4th for SG Tee to Green; Oliver Lindell who tied for 7th ranked 6th on that same count, suggesting that it’s a pretty strong determinant of success on this track.
Incoming Form: Current form for the top 5 finishers last year was as follows:
- 1st, Grant Forrest: MC/64/MC/MC/23/MC/16/59/13/MC/54/22
- 2nd, Joe Dean: 5/13/28/MC/MC/MC/MC/22/MC/MC/MC/MC
- 3rd, Jacob Skov Olesen: 13/7/8/MC/12/41/42/19/46/MC/MC/68
- 3rd, John Parry: 25/MC/36/29/33/MC/4/55/50/26/55/16
- 3rd, Kristoffer Reitan: MC/31/69/2/33/1/2/13/46/4/13/30
Grant Forrest hadn’t recorded a top-10 finish all season before winning this a year ago, however his 22nd place finish at the Scottish Open had shown some promise, not least in that he’d led the field that week for both SG Tee to Green and SG Around the Green. John Parry’s 16th place finish came at the Open Championship, as did Kristoffer Reitan’s 30th, so those results can be taken as positive given the level of competition they were facing.
Links tracks appeal to some players more than others, plus a moderate breeze helps us to narrow the field. Bentgrass-based greens are also a more common feature of this type of course than inland tracks and also suggest that those who’ve played well on similar setups may be more comfortable here, so looking for UK & Ireland-based links (or links-style) form could be the best starting point.
My final selections are as follows:
