Omega European Masters Tips 2019

The top of this week’s market looks a minefield with Rory McIlroy quite rightly the clear favourite. Rory’s not played the European Masters since 2011, however in the 3 times that he’s graced this event with his presence he’s finished 2^nd, 7^th and 3^rd. Not too shabby, then there’s the fact that at 2^nd in the OWGR he’s clearly the highest ranked player in attendance, plus of course there’s the small matter of $15m burning a hole in his back pocket after last week’s exploits in Atlanta. Even though he’s here to satisfy his sponsors Omega first and foremost, it would surprise nobody if he were to win, however at 4/1 I simply can’t get involved given how much winning the FedEx Cup may have taken out of him.

Matt Fitzpatrick will have his backers and save for Erik Van Rooyen pulling out the kind of Sunday performance that many thought was beyond him last week in Gothenburg, he’d be arriving here on the back of another win as he seeks his hat-trick of Crans titles. Defending is never easy though and should he win at a paltry 8/1 then he’ll be joining a small and very elite club who’ve won the same event 3 years in succession.

Like Rory, Tommy Fleetwood has had a gruelling run of events with 3 back-to-back Playoff events following quickly after The Open and FedEx St Jude; again I’m happy to look past him in the betting, headlining this week’s team with the resurgent Bernd Wiesberger.

I noted in the preamble that GIR has been one of the key stats of recent winners here and few have been striking their iron as consistently well as the Austrian this season, ranking as he does in 5^th place for Greens hit. That’s nothing new or unusual for the 33 year-old, however where he’s stepped up a gear this year has been with the putter and that makes a player like him very dangerous wherever he plays. His Made In Denmark win – his first success for over 2 years – came with a field-leading putting average of 1.60 and he followed that up with another victory in July, this time at the Scottish Open where he overcame Benjamin Hebert in a playoff, again with a strong putting performance and that might just be the missing ingredient that pushes him back into a contending position here in the Swiss Alps.

6 attempts at this event have yielded 4 cuts made and a best finish of 6^th back in 2012; whilst he’s generally got on OK with the track from tee-to-green, that year was the only time he’d putted well around these parts. With the flat stick working better and more consistently than ever right now, I can see Bernd contending for that 3^rd title of the season and one which would cement his position in the World’s top 50 for 2020. Result: MC

Life as a professional golfer isn’t always as glamorous and exciting as it may appear as we’ve seen recently by the emotional interviews from James Morrison and Andrew Johnston. Clearly talking openly and honestly about their challenges on and off the course is a strong step in the self-medication process and already in Beef we’ve seen a player who’s back playing some excellent golf with a smile on his face.

A fast-finishing 4^th at the Scottish Open marked something of a turnaround for the 30 year-old after a series of lacklustre performances and pre-event withdrawals was put into context with his post-round interview. After a month off following an Open Championship missed cut, he’s seemingly come back in good shape both physically and mentally as he powered to an impressive top-10 finish last week in Sweden courtesy of a 63/65 weekend that was tied with the best on show, including eventual winner Erik Van Rooyen. 6-under for the par-4s was the critical element last week for Beef and making birdie on the closing 530 yard par-5 each day bodes well given the similar dimensions for this week’s scoring holes here at Crans.

Generally neat and tidy from tee-to-green when he’s on his game, it was his scrambling that really shone last week as he made just 4 bogeys and a double over the 4 days and got up and down nigh on three-quarters of the time, which will undoubtedly help around these parts when greens are missed. 3^rd here in 2016 offers further encouragement when he opened and closed with rounds of 65 when still fresh from a summer break, and with things seemingly moving in the right direction for the Londoner, I’m happy to back him for another lofty finish here in the mountains. Result: T23

There were a number of players who finished last week’s Scandinavian Invitation off on a high and could carry some momentum through to this week. Andrew Johnston was one who I’ve duly backed, whereas Marcus Kinhult was another who narrowly missed my final team, however I’m sticking to my guns with Aaron Rai who I backed in the Czech Republic recently. I remarked on that week’s podcast that Rai should enjoy this week’s test at Crans if he’s showing some form, and a closing round of 65 at Hills G&CC last week is enough encouragement for me to get involved.

We’ve already concluded that there are a number of ways to succeed around these parts – straight hitting is certainly one of the more favoured angles of attack and few hit it straighter than the 24 year-old. 7^th for both Driving Accuracy and GIR on the European Tour for the season-to-date tells us all we need to know about the way that Aaron approaches the game and that straight hitting, which should keep him out of the worst of the trouble here at Crans, has been evident in each of his last 3 starts where he’s ranked 3^rd for Driving Accuracy, included in which was a 12^th place finish at the WGC FedEx St Jude in elite company.

The Wolverhampton man’s only start here came last year when he missed the cut by a couple of strokes, however it’s worth noting that an opening 67 had put him inside the top 10 after the first 18 holes. Of more consequence perhaps is the fact that Rai’s maiden European Tour title, which came at the start of this wraparound season, came at Fanling which is another short, quirky track which produces a number of course links including the likes of Miguel Angel Jimenez, who’s won on both tracks, and at the other end of the spectrum Scott Hend, who’s won in Hong Kong and has come within a play-off of winning here twice. Result: MC

For a player who resides so far down the betting, there’s plenty to like abut the chances of Dean Burmester here at Crans this week. I noted in the preamble that 6 of the last 9 winners of this had recorded a top-7 finish in their previous outing, so the South African’s 3^rd place finish last week in Sweden is a big tick in that box and puts him in a fairly small shortlist of players if that trend were to continue this week. That effort also checks the top-3 finish or better in the season stat that each of the last 9 winners here had achieved, a feat that he’d already accomplished earlier in the year on the Sunshine Tour’s Dimension Data Pro-Am.

Success here at Crans has been achieved in the main by players with a neat and tidy game as opposed to brute power, which might go some way as to explaining the bookmakers’ stance this week on Dean, however had the playoffs from the past 3 seasons gone the other way then we could be looking at a recent winners list that reads Scott Hend, Scott Hend (again) and Lucas Bjerregaard which would paint an entirely different picture and have punters scrambling to see who sits atop of the Driving Distance charts for the season. Burmester currently sits 5^th on that count.

A course form line of 30/MC is perhaps the most obvious negative that you can attribute to the 30 year-old this week, however even then there are positives that can be drawn from that as he sat in 3^rd position heading into Sunday in 2017 before limping home in 73 strokes. With his game in good shape, a field-leading 62 from last Saturday fresh in his mind, and the game to score heavily on the short par-4s and reachable par-5s, if one of the lesser-fancied bombers is going to feature it could well be Burmester. Result: MC

Finally I’m going to play another long price who’s not getting the respect he deserves from the bookmakers this week. Ashun Wu obliged for us just under a year ago at a 3-figure price on another sub-7,000 yard layout in Holland, and this week’s assignment looks like another great chance for the Chinese star who makes up for his lack of punch from off the tee with an accurate long game and solid short game that could be just the ticket this week.

That win at the KLM Open last year was Wu’s 3^rd European Tour title and 5^th success as a professional overall, however he’s one of those players who always tends to be a little less popular with bookmakers and punters alike. He’d finished 6^th here at Crans the week before completing that hat-trick of successes yet despite that and some tangible course form, he was still priced at 125/1. Almost 12 months on and we’re in a similar, if not more attractive situation with a longer price on offer and I’m happy to play ball.

Aside from that 6^th place finish here in the Alps last year, the 34 year-old also has a 9^th place finish to his name here, achieved on debut the year before, and any kind of progression with that trend will see each-way backers rewarded. 20^th last week after a poor run of form since finishing 5^th in China back in May doesn’t tell the whole story as Wu sat in 2^nd place heading into the weekend after a Friday 64 and he maintained that position heading into the final day before eventually dropping back with a closing 72. Nevertheless, we’ve seen before that when he’s in the mix, Sunday rounds can certainly go his way and having acclimatised himself to the top end of the leaderboard last week, I for one won’t be surprised to see him make a better fist of it this week if he’s in a similar position come Sunday Result: MC