Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Omega European Masters Tips 2026

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With the PGA Tour having concluded its season for now at East Lake, the DP World Tour takes centre stage and continues its journey into the mainland this week as we make our annual pilgrimage to the Swiss Alps and the beautiful Crans-Sur-Sierre Golf Club.

Ryan Gerard heads straight over to Switzerland from East Lake where he bagged a huge cheque for his 3rd place finish at the Tour Championship. The American heads the betting here this week at 14/1 from the likes of Matt Wallace, Rasmus Hojgaard and Marco Penge, with Patrick Reed and Nicolai Hojgaard completing the top half-dozen in the market.

Crans-Sur-Sierre GC, Crans Montana, Switzerland. Designer: Fremantle and Gedge, 1908 with Ballesteros re-design 1999; Par: 70; Length: 6,830 yards; Fairways: Poa/Rye; Rough: Poa/Rye; Greens: Bent/Poa, 10’6″ on the stimp.

Course Overview. This quirky, sub-7,000 yard, par 70 is played at altitude in the Swiss Alps. The course is a tree-lined, undulating test with tiny bent/poa greens guarded by bunkers and run-off areas which have been toughened up further following tweaks over the past few years.

Four of the par-4s measure less than 400 yards whereas two can stretch to around 500 yards, plus there are five par-3s between 166 and 200 yards, however with the undulation changes and altitude the holes don’t necessarily play as the card suggests.

The front 9 contains three of the sub-400 yard par-4s in the stretch from the 5th to 7th, however it’s the final hole of that trio that presents the best opportunity for the brave, with birdies and eagles available for all who successfully take it on. Back-to-back reachable par-5s at the 14th and 15th also present opportunities – taking advantage of these scoring holes whilst navigating safely around the remainder of the course is how the more aggressive types might prevail.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Omega European Masters that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2025: Thriston Lawrence, 40/1; 2024: Matt Wallace, 20/1; 2023: Ludvig Aberg, 16/1; 2022: Thriston Lawrence, 30/1; 2021: Rasmus Hojgaard, 45/1; 2019: Sebastian Soderberg, 275/1, 2018: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 12/1; 2017: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 30/1; 2016: Alexander Noren, 18/1; 2015: Danny Willett, 16/1; 2014: David Lipsky, 125/1; 2013: Thomas Bjorn, 40/1; 2012, Richie Ramsay, 80/1; 2011; Thomas Bjorn, 55/1; 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 18/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Crans Montana is here.

It looks like we’re in for a beautiful few days of golf to compliment the surroundings this week with dry, sunny conditions and light winds throughout, accompanied by temperatures peaking in the mid-to-high 70s Fahrenheit.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 15 winners at Crans gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test:

  • 2025, Thriston Lawrence (-22). 296 yards (47th), 73.1% fairways (11th), 76.4% greens in regulation (24th), 76.5% scrambling (5th), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th)
  • 2024, Matt Wallace (-11). 323 yards (11th), 69.2% fairways (4th), 68.1% greens in regulation (34th), 65.2% scrambling (7th), 1.73 putts per GIR (20th)
  • 2023, Ludvig Aberg (-19). 328 yards (3rd), 65.4% fairways (32nd), 81.9% greens in regulation (3rd), 61.5% scrambling (35th), 1.69 putts per GIR (12th)
  • 2022, Thriston Lawrence (-18). 309 yards (59th), 48.1% fairways (70th), 76.4% greens in regulation (11th), 70.6% scrambling (17th), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th)
  • 2021, Rasmus Hojgaard (-13). 322 yards (20th), 73.1% fairways (2nd), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.8% scrambling (9th), 1.77 putts per GIR (30th)
  • 2019, Sebastian Soderberg (-14). 327 yards (21st), 59.6% fairways (31st), 70.8% greens in regulation (33rd), 71.4% scrambling (3rd), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th)
  • 2018, Matt Fitzpatrick (-17). 278 yards (63rd), 71.2% fairways (1st), 77.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 37.5% scrambling (25th), 1.68 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick (-14). 296 yards (44th), 66.7% fairways (16th), 74.1% greens in regulation (13th), 78.6% scrambling (2nd), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 2016, Alex Noren (-17). 301 yards (39th), 51.9% fairways (49th), 70.8% greens in regulation (26th), 95.2% scrambling (1st), 1.73 putts per GIR (23rd)
  • 2015, Danny Willett (-17). 308 yards (15th), 55.8% fairways (55th), 77.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 56.3% scrambling (35th), 1.68 putts per GIR (15th).
  • 2014, David Lipsky (-18). 298 yards (39th), 75.0% fairways (3rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 75.0% scrambling (2nd), 1.72 putts per GIR (31st).
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn (-20). 313 yards (29th), 65.4% fairways (24th), 72.2% greens in regulation (17th), 90.0% scrambling (1st), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2012, Richie Ramsay (-16). 275 yards (58th), 66.7% fairways (20th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 54.5% scrambling (46th), 1.71 putts per GIR (20th).
  • 2011, Thomas Bjorn (-20). 303 yards (24th), 82.7% fairways (1st), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 50.0% scrambling (51st), 1.69 putts per GIR (7th).
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez (-21). 308 yards (18th), 73.1% fairways (5th), 66.7% greens in regulation (32nd), 75.0% scrambling (6th), 1.54 putts per GIR (2nd).

Historically there have been 2 differing approaches to success here at Crans – either playing a conservative, high GIR game and putting well enough on the week to get the job done (Els 2003, Dredge 2006, Luquin 2008, Noren 2009, Bjorn 2011, Ramsay 2012, Bjorn 2013, Lipsky 2014, Willett 2015, Fitzpatrick 2018, Hojgaard 2021, Lawrence 2022 and Aberg in 2023 all succeeded in this fashion); alternatively relying on an outstanding short game is the other route to victory as ably demonstrated by Karlsson (2002), Donald (2004), Rumford (2007), Jimenez (2010), Noren (2016), Soderberg (2019), Wallace (2024) and Lawrence last year.

Only Garcia in 2005 and Fitzpatrick in 2017 really displayed a more balanced pattern of stats on the week, however both are excellent ball-strikers first and foremost.

SG Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the most consistent statistic across all six renewals has been SG Tee to Green, with Thriston Lawrence adding his name to the list of winners here who finished in the top 10 for the week on that metric.

  • 2025: Thriston Lawrence. T: 10th; A: 14th; T2G: 8th; ATG: 31st; P: 2nd
  • 2024: Matt Wallace: T: 9th; A: 54th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 2nd; P: 3rd
  • 2023: Ludvig Aberg: T: 2nd; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 31st; P: 43rd
  • 2022: Thriston Lawrence. T: 58th; A: 1st; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 22nd; P: 19th
  • 2021: Rasmus Hojgaard. T: 2nd; A: 5th; T2G: 8th; ATG: 66th; P: 12th
  • 2019: Sebastian Soderberg. T: 8th; A: 35th; T2G: 9th; ATG: 7th; P: 17th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

For Strokes Gained history here at Crans for the 2026 field click here.

Incoming Form: 11 of the last 15 winners here arrived with a top-8 finish recorded in their previous event and all had a top-10 finish in their last 10 starts at the very least, so some solid recent form looks preferable although Thriston Lawrence muddies the water a little from his win last year. All winners had also recorded a minimum of one top-5 finish in the season or, in the case of Noren, Bjorn and Jimenez, a victory on Tour:

  • 2025, Thriston Lawrence: MC/MC/4/MC/12/8/44/MC/45/MC/MC/MC
  • 2024, Matt Wallace: 36/4/20/43/27/15/MC/MC/41/24/28/8
  • 2023, Ludvig Aberg: MC/70/24/61/25/24/40/4/MC/64/14/4
  • 2022, Thriston Lawrence: 18/36/58/MC/18/MC36/3/24/42/MC/8
  • 2021, Rasmus Hojgaard: MC/12/MC/MC/79/MC/55/17/41/MC/38/3
  • 2019, Sebastian Soderberg: MC/MC/MC/21/14/WD/41/MC/MC/5
  • 2018, Matt Fitzpatrick: 30/12/27/MC/14/MC/48/MC/36/7
  • 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick: 12/2/35/MC/54/MC/44/50/MC/54
  • 2016, Alex Noren: 9/MC/43/12/MC/8/1/46/49/2
  • 2015, Danny Willett: 29/MC/38/3/MC/38/6/MC/MC/6
  • 2014, David Lipsky: 18/10/MC/58/2/15/19/24
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn: 4/2/2/18/8/MC/73/MC/MC/58
  • 2012, Richie Ramsay: 52/2/16/MC/MC/16/MC/MC/MC/6
  • 2011, Thomas Bjorn: 15/MC/WD/MC/57/MC/4/68/MC/1
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 8/MC/49/1/MC/27/22/MC/7/3

Event Form (1996 Onwards): Once upon a time, a positive record on this track was generally a good sign given its quirky nature. Both David Lipsky and Richie Ramsay arrived here with patchy course form at best though and the four winners prior to Thriston Lawrence and Matt Wallace were all course debutants, so it’s certainly not the be-all and end-all:

  • 2025, Thriston Lawrence: 1/47/27
  • 2024, Matt Wallace: 70/51/MC/2/24
  • 2023, Ludvig Aberg: Debut
  • 2022, Thriston Lawrence: Debut
  • 2021, Rasmus Hojgaard: Debut
  • 2019, Sebastian Soderberg: Debut
  • 2018, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/2/7/1
  • 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/2/7
  • 2016, Alex Noren: 66/MC/1/MC/9/27
  • 2015, Danny Willett: 23/42/25/2/26/5
  • 2014, David Lipsky: 59/MC
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn: 8/MC/30/2/2/WD/23/26/MC/15/1/MC
  • 2012, Richie Ramsay: MC/MC/34
  • 2011, Thomas Bjorn: 8/MC/30/2/2/WD/23/26/MC/15
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 8/55/7/6/21/46/63/8/2/13/37/MC/3/4

Those with either a high GIR game or excellent short game can succeed here, however it’s clear that despite its lack of length this course favours neither the longer nor shorter hitters. Wallace, Aberg, Hojgaard and Soderberg are all relatively long though and although before that the eventual champions in recent times hadn’t been exceptionally long drivers of the golf ball, that fact could have had an entirely different spin on it had Scott Hend converted either of his play-off chances in 2016 and 2017, or if Lucas Bjerregaard had overcome Matt Fitzpatrick in 2018.

With the likes of Rory McIlroy (2019), Pelle Edberg (2015) and Brooks Koepka (2014) also contending in the relatively recent past, it’s clear that this isn’t necessarily a course that fits a single style of play.

My Final Omega European Masters Tips Are As Follows:

Matt Wallace 3pts EW 14/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Star Sports

Having backed Joe Dean on his previous two starts only to swerve him last week when he put together his triumphant Sunday was frustrating to say the least, so sticking with Matt Wallace as my headline selection again this week is a bet I’ve placed with an equal dose of analysis as well as FOMO.

In truth, Wallace could have easily had the weekend off after a topsy-turvy and stop-start opening two rounds that saw him shoot 5-under for the final 6 holes of his second round to make the cut, before a bogey-free final round of 67 saw the Englishman climb into a tie for 15th and inject a strong dose of confidence into his game ahead of his now annual return to Crans-sur-Sierre.

With five DP World Tour titles to his name as well as the 2023 Corales Championship over on the PGA Tour, the next career steps for Matt must be serious contention at the Majors and another concerted attempt to make Luke Donald’s Ryder Cup team, the race for which began last week in the Midlands. The 36 year-old’s last win at this level came here two years ago in similar circumstances, with that victory catapulting Wallace to the top of the embryonic Team Europe standings and the desire for another fast start in that respect may well push Matt on to success this week.

Aside from his victory 2 years ago, Wallace has also finished as runner-up here twice – including when defending last year – and is a better proposition in my mind than favourite Ryan Gerard who makes his Crans debut this week after 3 gruelling weeks at the PGA Tour Playoffs.

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Rasmus Hojgaard 2.5pts EW 16/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Like Matt Wallace, Rasmus Hojgaard will be looking to get his latest Ryder Cup qualification campaign off to a flying start as he seeks a second successive appearance under Luke Donald’s captaincy.

Qualification for the last team was fuelled by an early victory at the 2024 Irish Open, the week after Wallace had won this event as the pair both threw their respective hats into the ring, and I can see this week’s event being contested by the same two men who will very much be looking to replicate their form of two years ago.

Like Wallace, Rasmus is a previous winner here at Crans – that came in 2021 when he held off Bernd Wiesberger by a stroke courtesy of a flying final round of 63. The Dane finished alongside Matt last year too in a tie for 2nd place and there’s little to split the pair this week in my opinion.

Course history fans will have been thrown off the scent a little by the four debutants winning here between 2019-2023, however Wallace and Lawrence have restored some order in the past two years and with 2-time Matt Fitzpatrick also finishing in the top 5 last year, siding with those who’ve had success here in the past may not be a bad ploy.

Rasmus missed out on the PGA Tour Playoffs despite finishing 4th at the penultimate event, the Rocket Classic, and his runner-up finish at the Danish Golf Championship on his last start when returning to Europe has got to give him great confidence as we head towards some key autumn events.

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Marcus Helligkilde 1pt EW 70/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

For a while last week it looked like Marcus Helligkilde was going to be our saving grace, having opened with a pair of birdies in his first three holes on Sunday to sit inside the top 10 and give us a chance of an each-way return at what were three-figure prices at The Belfry. Bogeys at the 6th and 9th put paid to that hope, however a closing double-bogey may have just taken the Dane out of the firing line when it comes to the bookies’ scalpel in what was otherwise another positive display as he continues his comeback from long-term injury.

I talked last week about his rehabilitation from neck issues and some of the positive signs we’ve seen since his return to competitive golf, and last week’s effort can be added to the list which includes 14th at the KLM Open, 15th at the co-sanctioned Corales Championship and 7th at the Danish Golf Championship before his tie for 26th at The Belfry. He’s been Strokes Gained positive for Tee-to-Green in each of those efforts mentioned above, plus the putter’s gradually warmed over the past three outings too, ranking 51st, 33rd and 27th on that count.

Two efforts here in the Swiss Alps prior to his injury showed promise with 29th on debut in 2022 improving to 13th the year after, both of which were achieved after relatively slow starts. The 29 year-old also won the Swiss Challenge on the second tier back in 2021 which was played on another tight track just across the French border.

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Davis Bryant 1pt EW 80/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Star Sports

With 6 of the last 7 winners here – and 11 of the last 15 – arriving in the Swiss Alps off the back of a top-10 finish on their previous start, Davis Bryant’s tie for 9th last week at The Belfry has peaked my interest.

The American isn’t the longest off the tee by any stretch of the imagination, averaging a touch under 292 yards and in the bottom 20% of so on Tour for Driving Distance, but that makes him an even more attractive proposition on tests like these where precision and patience are just as viable routes to success as all-out attack. Runner-up finishes this season in Kenya and Austria were both on courses where altitude helped bring the course down to size for the 29 year-old, and this week sets up nicely again for Davis despite missing the cut here 12 months ago on debut.

11th at the co-sanctioned Corales Championship last month saw him find over 75% of fairways and greens on the week, and it was a similar story last week at the British Masters with 70% Driving Accuracy and 73.6% the standout figures on a tougher track. The putter noticeably improved last week too, with 9th for SG Putting his best flat-stick performance since that aforementioned effort at Karen Country Club back in February, and he should be in confident mood as seeks out his breakthrough win at DP World Tour level.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:10BST 31.8.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.