Check out our First Round Leader form stats, history stats and tee times here.
The First Round Leader (FRL) market is fascinating given there are many ways to review the data to hand.
How does the weather forecast impact conditions? Will it be softer earlier, firmer later, windier for some, warmer for others? What tee times have the recent FRL winners had? Have the recent FRL winners started well in this event in the past? Have the recent FRL winners started well in their recent events; have they even been playing well in recent events?
Lots of questions and the odd red herring along the way I’m sure, however I think there are a few factors to consider which might help point us in the right direction.
First up the weather: The latest weather forecast for Quail Hollow is here.
After some wet weather in the immediate lead up to this year’s PGA Championship, any lingering rain from Wednesday should have cleared by the time the tournament starts, leaving us with a dry, sunny day with temperatures reaching the low-80s Fahrenheit in the afternoon. Wind will be fairly light all day, picking up to around 10mph in the warmest part of the day.
Looking at recent US PGA Championship history, going back to 2011 the morning wave has produced 13 of the 19 players who either led or co-led after day 1 in this event, with Xander Schauffele’s sparkling round of 62 last year the latest addition to that statistic from a 7.53am tee time.
The exceptions to the rule were Adam Scott who matched Jim Furyk’s 65 from a 13:45 tee time in 2013; Ryan Palmer who also shot 65 the year after to co-lead with Kevin Chappell and Lee Westwood; Kevin Kisner who equalled Thorbjorn Olesen’s early 67 in 2017 here at Quail Hollow from a 13:55 tee time; Gary Woodland who broke our hearts in 2018 from a 13:26 tee time to pip Rickie Fowler by shooting 64; Brendon Todd who equalled Jason Day’s early round of 65 in 2020; and finally Corey Conners who took the solo lead 3 years ago from a 13:03 tee time with an opening round of 67.
With the exception of the aforementioned Ryan Palmer, all first round leaders since 2011 had shown some snippets of form in the very recent past. 6 of Woodland’s previous 8 rounds had been in the 60s prior to shooting 64 in the first round at Bellerive in 2018. In 2017 Kisner was 3rd after the first round in Ohio and Olesen had finished 10th overall courtesy of a 67/75 weekend.
Jimmy Walker, who led from wire-to-wire in 2016 to capture his maiden Major title, had also started brightly at the Bridgestone and sat 2nd after 18 holes whereas Dustin Johnson, who led the US PGA on his own in 2015 after a first round 66, had also produced some good opening form at Akron where he was 2nd going into the weekend.
More recently, Brooks Koepka’s opening 63 in 2019 followed on from having finished 1st and 4th after day one in his previous 3 starts, whereas Day (15th) and Todd (2nd) had both started brightly at St Jude the week before arriving at TPC Harding Park in 2020. 2021’s first round leader Corey Conners had finished 8th at The Masters, 7th at The PLAYERS and had been FRL at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before that, so was clearly playing nicely. Rory’s fast-finishing 2nd at Augusta, followed by 5th at Quail Hollow, also fits the narrative perfectly ahead of his fast start at Southern Hills, and Bryson DeChambeau had shot a second round 63 at LIV Tulsa the week before his first round effort 2 years ago.
To complete the picture, Xander Schauffele’s 62 at Valhalla last year followed an opening 64 the week before at the Wells Fargo where he led from day 1 to day 3 before eventually losing out to Rory McIlroy on the Sunday.
Essentially then a spark of life in the very recent past seems to be a good pointer for this.
So, PGA Championship history errs on the side of early starters, however we also have a wealth of data to look at from the Wells Fargo Championship events held here over the years. Since the course re-design in 2018, the first round lead here at Quail Hollow has been as follows:
- 2024: Xander Schauffele 11.22am -7/64
- 2023: Fleetwood 12.32pm -6/65
- 2021: Mickelson 12.54pm -7/66
- 2019: Dahmen/McIlroy 1.20pm/12.50pm -5/66
- 2018: Peterson – 1.40pm -6/65
This course history muddies the water somewhat, with Xander’s effort last year coming from a late morning tee time and the rest from the afternoon. Suffice it to say that with the relatively placid weather forecast I’m not getting too hung up on when a player is teeing off on Thursday, and in fact both of my selections tee it up in the afternoon.
My selections for First Round Leader are as follows:
