PGA Championship Tips 2025

 

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Congratulations if you were on-board either Sepp Straka at first show Monday best prices of 45/1 (Betfred) at the Truist, or Ryan Fox at the Myrtle Beach Classic. He went off at a general 40/1. I had runners and riders at both events, but Danny Walker marked his card with me by firing a +4/75 when others were shooting 64/65. Be careful when backing Walker!

In Philadelphia I got 18/1 and 33/1 full each-way returns on Patrick Cantlay and Shane Lowry. The former never had a chance of winning whereas the latter showed his huge issues when it comes to closing tournaments on the PGA Tour.

On to this week and the 107th PGA Championship is returning to a recently extended Quail Hollow. It should be an absolute feast of golf with the deepest field in Major Championship golf present. Regularly seen on the PGA Tour at the Wells Fargo Championship, 2017 was the last time that Quail Hollow hosted a PGA Championship – won by Justin Thomas by 2 shots.

Before we go into the detail surrounding PGA Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,500 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: Quail Hollow Club has hosted the 2017 PGA Championship and the 2022 Presidents Cup. It’s also a traditional stop-off on the PGA Tour, hosting the Wells Fargo Championship from 2003 onwards. Exception years for results research were 2017 and 2022 where Quail Hollow was being prepped for the PGA Championship and Presidents Cup respectively.

Freshly extended to slightly more than we saw for the 2017 PGA Championship, the 2025 PGA Championship will play at 7,626 yards – that’s an increase of 68 yards from the 2024 Wells Fargo played at 7,558 yards. As Major Championship tracks go, this is a long Par 71.

Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina: Designer: George Cobb with 2013 & 2016 Tom Fazio re-design; Course Type: Classical, Carolina, Long; Par: 71; Length: 7,626 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 7; Number of Sand Bunkers: 61; Acres of Fairway: 26; Fairways: 419 Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass; Rough: 419 Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass 2.75” +0.75” from Wells Fargo; Greens: 6,578 sq.ft average featuring G12 Champion Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimp: 12ft.

Course Scoring Average:

• 2024: 71.73 (+0.73), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 6 of 51 courses.
• 2023: 71.23 (+0.23), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 14 of 49 courses.
• 2021: 72.26 (+1.26), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 5 of 51 courses.
• 2019: 71.76 (+0.76), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 8 of 49 courses.
• 2018: 72.13 (+1.13), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 5 of 51 courses.
• 2017 PGA: 47 (+2.47), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 1 of 50 courses.

Quail Hollow Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Quail Hollow and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

• Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 28-30 yards at 300 yards
• The Dunes Golf and Beach Club: 20 – 25 yards at 300 yards.
• Philadelphia Cricket Club: 30-32 yards at 300 yards.
• TPC Craig Ranch: 30 – 40 yards at 300 yards.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
• Memorial Park: 30 – 40 yards at 300 yards.
• Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
• PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Tom Fazio PGA Tour designs and re-designs include:

• Atunyote GC – Turning Stone Championship 2007-10.
• Caves Valley GC – BMW Championship 2021.
• Congaree GC – Palmetto Championship 2021 & CJ Cup 2022.
• Conway Farms GC – BMW Championship 2013, 2015, 2017.
• Corales GC – Corales Championship
• Eagle Point – Wells Fargo Championship 2017.
• Raptor Course Greyhawk GC – Fry’s.com Open 2008/09.
• Shadow Creek GC – CJ Cup 2020.
• The Summit Club – CJ Cup 2021.

Fazio has also had renovation input into:

• Riviera Country Club – Genesis Invitational.
• Merion – 2013 U.S. Open.
• Oakmont – 2016 U.S. Open.
• Seaside Course at Sea Island – RSM Classic

Course Overview: Quail Hollow is very much a classical golf course with Carolina connotations. When I say Carolina, think Pinehurst Number 2, Harbour Town Golf Links, Sedgefield Country Club, and even the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook which despite being in Florida has the real feel of a Carolina golf course – so traditionally tree-lined, with narrow sight lines from the tee and plenty of dog-legs. Quail Hollow will play to an extended 7,626 yards this week and that is an incredibly long Par 71. Purely from a Major Championship perspective, only Torrey Pines South Course (2021 U.S. Open) has played as a longer Par 71 format since 2017.

After James Hahn won the 2016 Wells Fargo Championship, Tom Fazio-inspired work started on the course with a 90-day window allowing significant changes to the very start of the front 9. The 1st is a 505 yard (extended 10 yards for the PGA) dog-leg right par-4, which was previously a sub-420 yard birdie opportunity. The 178 yard par-3 2nd hole was erased (it was used to lengthen the 1st) and a new 184 yard par-3, namely the 4th hole, was built to replace it. As a consequence the 5th was shortened from a 570 yard par-5 to a 449 yard par-4. At the 11th hole a 100% new green complex was built and the par-4 has been lengthened by 35 yards, which now plays at 462 yards. Par naturally changed to a Par 71.

So what changes will we see in 2025?

Firstly the course has been extended from its PGA Tour Wells Fargo Championship guise. From a yardage perspective, the 2024 Wells Fargo played at 7,558 yards. The 2025 PGA Championship will play at 7,626 yards – that’s an increase of 68 yards.

Yardage has been added to 3 holes reconstituting back tee usage namely:

• 1st Hole – par-4 505 yards, +10
• 9th Hole – par-4 530 yards, +25
• 17th Hole – par-3 223 yards, +33

Below I’ve listed the par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring splits of Rory McIlroy, Wyndham Clark, Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Jason Day and Justin Thomas who have won at Quail since the Tom Fazio re-design in 2016:

• Rory McIlroy: -2 (par-3), -6 (par-4), -9 (par-5), total -17/267.
• Wyndham Clark: -3 (par-3), -6 (par-4), -10 (par-5), total -19/265.
• Rory McIlroy: +1 (par-3), -5 (par-4), -6 (par-5), total -10/274.
• Max Homa: Even (par-3), -6 (par-4), -9 (par-5), total -15/269.
• Jason Day: Even (par-3), -3 (par-4), -9 (par-5), total -12/272.
• Justin Thomas: +1 (par-3), -2 (par-4), -7 (par-5), total -8/276.

And here’s the breakdown of Wells Fargo Championship winners here since 2014 when the course received its first Tom Fazio re-design and Bermudagrass greens:

• James Hahn: +5 (par-3), -5 (par-4), -9 (par-5), total -9/279.
• Rory McIlroy: +3, -11, -13, total -21/267. (McIlroy won by 7 shots)
• B. Holmes: -2, -2, -10, total -14/274.

The key to winning at Quail Hollow has always been to score heavily on the par-5s and play the other holes at around -4 to -6 or slightly better. Those numbers are likely to be tougher at the 2025 PGA Championship, but to contend this week a player will need to master the 7th, 10th and 15th holes in particular.

PGA Championship Winners: 2024: Xander Schauffele (-21); 2023: Brooks Koepka (-9); 2022: Justin Thomas (-6); 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6); 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13); 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8); 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16); 2017: Justin Thomas (-8); 2016: Jimmy Walker (-14); 2015: Jason Day (-20); 2014: Rory McIlroy (-16); 2013: Jason Dufner (-10); 2012: Rory McIlroy (-13); 2011: Keegan Bradley (-8); 2010: Martin Kaymer (-11); 2009: Y.E. Yang (-8).

• 2024: Xander Schauffele 62-68-68-65 -21/263
• 2023: Brooks Koepka 72-66-66-67 -9/271
• 2022: Justin Thomas 67-67-74-67 -5/275
• 2021: Phil Mickelson-70-69-70-73 -6/282
• 2020: Collin Morikawa 69-69-65-64 -13/267
• 2019: Brooks Koepka 63-65-70-74 -8/272
• 2018: Brooks Koepka 69-63-66-66 -16/264
• 2017: Justin Thomas 73-66-69-68 -8/276

OWGR of PGA Championship Winners: 2024: Schauffele 3; 2023: Koepka 44; 2022: Thomas 9; 2021: Mickelson 115; 2020: Morikawa 12; 2019: Koepka 3; 2018: Koepka 4; 2017: Thomas 14.

Path to Victory: Below are end of round positions for the winners of the PGA Championship since 2010:

• 2024 – Xander Schauffele: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2023 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 38th, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2022 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 7th.
• 2021 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 8th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2020 – Collin Morikawa: Round 1: 33rd, Round 2: 25th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2019 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2018 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 33rd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2017 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 44th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2016 – Jimmy Walker: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2015 – Jason Day: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2014 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2013 – Jason Dufner: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2012 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2011 – Keegan Bradley: Round 1: 36th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2010 – Martin Kaymer: Round 1: 44th, Round 2: 15th, Round 3: 4th.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the PGA Championship winners since 2010 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

• 2024 – Xander Schauffele: Round 1: 3 ahead, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: level.
• 2023 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2022 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 7 back.
• 2021 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: Level, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2020 – Collin Morikawa: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2019 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 7 ahead, Round 3: 7 ahead.
• 2018 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
• 2017 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2016 – Jimmy Walker: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: Level, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2015 – Jason Day: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
• 2014 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2013 – Jason Dufner: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2012 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 3 ahead.
• 2011 – Keegan Bradley: Round 1: 8 back, Round 2: Level, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2010 – Martin Kaymer: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 4 back.

Incoming Form of PGA Championship winners since 2010:

• Xander Schauffele: 2nd Wells Fargo/23rd Zurich/18th Heritage/8th Masters.
• Brooks Koepka: 5th LIV Tulsa/3rd LIV Singapore/11th LIV Adelaide/2nd Masters.
• Justin Thomas: 5th Byron Nelson/35th Heritage/8th Masters/35th WMP.
• Phil Mickelson: 69th Wells Fargo/MC Valspar/21st Masters/MC Texas Open.
• Collin Morikawa: 20th St Jude/48th Memorial/1st Workday/MC Travelers.
• Brooks Koepka: 4th Byron Nelson/2nd Masters/56th WMP/56th Players.
• Brooks Koepka: 5th Bridgestone/MC Canada/39th Open Champ/19th Travelers.
• Justin Thomas: 28th Bridgestone/MC Open Champ/MC Quicken/MC Travelers.
• Jimmy Walker: 14th Canada/MC Open Champ/16th Bridgestone/MC US Open.
• Jason Day: 12th Bridgestone/1st Canada/4th Open Champ/9th US Open.
• Rory McIlroy: 1st Bridgestone/1st Open Champ/14th Scottish Open/MC Irish Open.
• Jason Dufner: 4th Bridgestone/26th Open Champ/MC Travelers/4th US Open.
• Rory McIlroy: 5th Bridgestone/60th Open Champ/ 10th Irish Open/MC US Open.
• Keegan Bradley: 15th Bridgestone/43rd Greenbier/22nd Canada/MC AT&T National.
• Martin Kaymer: 22nd Bridgestone/7th Open Championship/MC Scottish Open/6th Open de France.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Course Form | Recent Majors Form | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Rory McIlroy, 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Justin Thomas; 4) Xander Schauffele; 5) Bryson DeChambeau; 6) Sungjae Im; 7) Keith Mitchell; 8) Jon Rahm; 9) Tommy Fleetwood; 10) Patrick Cantlay.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

PGA Championship Winners & Prices: 2024: Schauffele 18/1; 2023: Koepka 18/1; 2022: Thomas 16/1; 2021: Mickelson 250/1; 2020: Morikawa 35/1; 2019: Koepka 11/1JF; 2018: Koepka 20/1; 2017: Thomas 45/1; 2016: Walker 150/1; 2015: Day 14/1; 2014: McIlroy 5/1F; 2013: Dufner 40/1; 2012: McIlroy 20/1; 2011: Bradley 175/1; 2010: Kaymer 50/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 67/1; Average: 58/1.

Historical Wells Fargo Championship Weather:

• 2024: Thursday: Cloudy. High of 79. Wind SW 12-22 mph. Preferred lies. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 80. Wind W/NW 5-20 mph. Preferred lies. Saturday: Sunny. High of 74. Wind W 5-10 mph. Sunday:  Sunny. High of 77. Wind NW 5-12 mph.
• 2023: Thursday: Sunny. High of 72. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly Cloudy. High of 75. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly Cloudy. High of 75. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 83. Wind WSW 10-15 mph.
• 2021: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 71. Wind NNW 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 69. Wind NW 12-18 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy. High of 74. Wind W 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Partly Cloudy. High of 81. Wind SSW 12-15 mph with gusts of 30 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 86. Wind SSW 7-14 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSW 7-14 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 84. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Play was suspended at 3:37 p.m. ET due to thunderstorms and resumed at 4:48 p.m., a delay of one hour, 11 minutes. A second weather delay began at 5:18 p.m. and lasted one hour, six minutes before play resumed at 6:24 p.m. Sunday: Mostly cloudy and rainy. High of 80. Wind WNW 10-20 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended from 5:09 p.m. to 6:11 p.m., a delay of 62 minutes.
• 2018: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 86. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 87. Wind SSW 10-18 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind S 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny with a high of 84. Wind WNW 12-22 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Charlotte, North Carolina is here.

North Carolina in mid-May is featuring some hot weather for the 4 days of the PGA Championship. 29-32 degrees Celsius – 84–90 Fahrenheit – is hot. Plus it’s sure to dry out the Quail Hollow course.

Point is, the course has taken 58mm – over 2 inches – of rain since last Thursday. It’s raining as I write this preview on Monday morning, with Tuesday morning also facing a 85% chance of more precipitation. Quail Hollow has SubAir, but I’m expecting at least soft fairways on Thursday and potentially receptive greens for the early starters.

During the 4 days of action though the forecast is dry, so expect firming conditions each day. Thursday and Friday look calm. Saturday sees gusts of over 25 mph from the south-west and that’s followed on Sunday by 20-25 mph gusts, again from the south-west. I could see the leading score almost stalling at low-teens across the weekend.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Valspar Championship / Singapore Classic which includes PGA Tour, DP World Tour and LIV League events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Bryson DeChambeau; 2) David Puig; 3) Rory McIlroy; 4) Keita Nakajima; 5) Jon Rahm; 6) Tom McKibbin; 7) Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson; 8) Sergio Garcia; 9) Kevin Yu; 10) Tyrrell Hatton / Brooks Koepka; 12) Patrick Cantlay / Robert MacIntyre / Collin Morikawa / Patrick Reed; 16) Alex Noren; 17) Ludvig Aberg / Dean Burmester / Tony Finau / Marco Penge; 21) Taylor Pendrith; 22) Scottie Scheffler; 23) Daniel Berger / Corey Conners; 25) Maverick McNealy.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Sepp Straka; 2) Richard Bland; 3) Eugenio Chacarra / Scottie Scheffler; 5) Patrick Cantlay; 6) Bud Cauley / Brooks Koepka; 8) Viktor Hovland; 9) Xander Schauffele; 10) Daniel Berger / Russell Henley; 12) Collin Morikawa / Patrick Reed; 14) Tyrrell Hatton; 15) Corey Conners / Dustin Johnson / Joaquin Niemann; 18) Sami Valimaki; 19) Rory McIlroy / Keith Mitchell / Justin Thomas; 22) Eric Cole / Davis Thompson; 24) Hideki Matsuyama; 25) Martin Kaymer / Shane Lowry.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Keegan Bradley; 2) Tom McKibbin; 3) Patrick Reed; 4) Jason Day / Cameron Smith; 6) Bryson DeChambeau / Jon Rahm; 8) Byeong Hun An / Justin Thomas; 10) Patrick Rodgers; 11) Andrew Novak; 12) Sungjae Im; 13) Davis Riley; 14) Richard Bland / Tyrrell Hatton / Dustin Johnson / Min Woo Lee / Joaquin Niemann; 19) Matt McCarty / David Puig; 21) Dean Burmester / Stephan Jaeger; 23) John Catlin / Matt Fitzpatrick / Brian Harman.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Bryson DeChambeau; 2) Eugenio Chacarra; 3) Scottie Scheffler; 4) Richard Bland; 5) Rory McIlroy / Jon Rahm / Patrick Reed; 8) Corey Conners / Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson; 10) Keegan Bradley; 11) Xander Schauffele; 12) Daniel Berger / Tyrrell Hatton; 14) Bud Cauley / Shane Lowry / Justin Thomas; 17) Tom McKibbin; 18) Patrick Cantlay / Maverick McNealy; 20) Kevin Yu; 21) Joaquin Niemann / Andrew Novak / Sepp Straka; 24) Dustin Johnson / Brooks Koepka / Hideki Matsuyama.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Cameron Smith; 2) Sam Burns / Scottie Scheffler; 4) Bryson DeChambeau; 5) David Puig / Justin Thomas; 7) Dustin Johnson / Denny McCarthy / Patrick Reed; 10) Jon Rahm / Phil Mickelson; 12) Dean Burmester / Harris English / Brian Harman; 15) Martin Kaymer; 16) Richard Bland / Tom Hoge; 18) Sami Valimaki; 19) Eric Cole / Viktor Hovland; 21) Rory McIlroy; 22) Mackenzie Hughes / Joaquin Niemann; 25) J.T. Poston.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Bryson DeChambeau; 2) Rory McIlroy / Scottie Scheffler; 4) Eugenio Chacarra; 5) Patrick Reed; 6) Jon Rahm; 7) Justin Thomas; 8) Richard Bland / Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson / Xander Schauffele; 11) Bud Cauley; 12) Daniel Berger / David Puig; 14) Tyrrell Hatton; 15) Dean Burmester / Eric Cole / Shane Lowry / Jordan Spieth; 19) Corey Conners / Dustin Johnson / Sami Valimaki; 22) Mackenzie Hughes / Keith Mitchell; 24) Joaquin Niemann; 25) Patrick Cantlay / Brian Harman / Cameron Smith.

For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Quail Hollow click here.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Wells Fargo Championship winners here at Quail Hollow since 2018 (Fazio re-design) gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:

• 2024, Rory McIlroy (-17). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 8th.
• 2023, Wyndham Clark (-19). SG Off the Tee: 20th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 39th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 3rd.
• 2021, Rory McIlroy (-10). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 10th, SG Around the Green: 41st, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 3rd.
• 2019, Max Homa (-15). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 41st, SG Tee to Green: 12th, SG Putting: 1st.
• 2018, Jason Day (-12). SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 50th, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 2nd.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 15th, SG Around the Green: 26th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 3rd.

From the 2017 PGA Championship, from a Strokes Gained perspective Justin Thomas gained 2.29 strokes per round from Tee to Green (56%) and 1.81 Putting (44%).

If we look at the past 4 winners here in the Wells Fargo Championship, namely Max Homa, Wyndham Clark and Rory McIlroy (2021 & 2024), 60% of their Total Strokes Gained were generated from Tee to Green with 40% on the putting green. So you can see that success here is tightly aligned to positive putting and from the traditional skill-set numbers below long driving plus top level scrambling.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Wells Fargo Championship winners here since 2018 (Fazio re-design) gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:

• 2024, Rory McIlroy (-17). 337 yards (1st), 51.8% fairways (59th), 68.1% greens in regulation (2nd), 73.9% scrambling (2nd), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th).
• 2023, Wyndham Clark (-19). 321 yards (20th), 41.1% fairways (63rd), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 71.4 % scrambling (2nd), 1.69 putts per GIR (8th).
• 2021, Rory McIlroy (-10). 324 yards (2nd), 33.9% fairways (76th), 75.0% greens in regulation (3rd), 77.8 % scrambling (1st), 1.74 putts per GIR (20th).
• 2019, Max Homa (-15). 313 yards (21st), 55.4% fairways (45th), 68.1% greens in regulation (17th), 78.3 % scrambling (2nd), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2018, Jason Day (-12). 326 yards (14th), 48.2% fairways (49th), 56.9% greens in regulation (69th), 77.4 % scrambling (2nd), 1.59 putts per GIR (1st).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 12th, Driving Accuracy: 58th, Greens in Regulation: 18th, Scrambling: 2nd, Putting Average 7th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how Quail Hollow sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Rory McIlroy (2024): “I probably hit the same amounts of fairways yesterday, but strokes gained off the tee was actually pretty high. Yeah, it’s hard when the fairways here are angled quite a bit and there’s a lot of doglegs, so with the distance that I’m hitting it, it’s hard to fit it into some of the places I’m trying to hit it into.  I don’t mind if I miss a few fairways as long as I miss the fairways in the right spots or on the right side so I have an angle into the greens. I’ve just got to try to keep being aggressive. But I hit a good tee shot up the last hole there on 9, good 3-wood on 8, so I made a good couple of swings coming in.

I’m comfortable here. I think I can take advantage of how far I hit it off the tee. I think this golf course really lends itself to driving distance. So the fact that I’m comfortable, the length off the tee, and then I’ve had so many good memories here, just I feel positive vibes, I feel good about myself when I’m walking around here.

Yeah, I think I’ve held out pretty well for the most part inside six feet, and then I think because I know this golf course so well, I’ve missed it in the right spots when I have missed the green. Yeah, to play two rounds in a row on this golf course in these conditions bogey free is a bit of a feather in my cap, I’m pretty proud of that.

The template of the greens is very similar. There might be a few different like nuances, but overall they’re pretty similar to what they have been. So they all slope the same way, so overall I think slight subtleties and slight changes, but it still plays very similar to how it’s played over the last 10 years.”

Wyndham Clark (2023): “Very patient. I started out, I had a short birdie putt on 11, which was my second hole, about seven, eight feet. It broke 10 inches, but I missed that, and then missed a birdie putt on the drivable and three-putted the par 5. So I was even through my first seven holes, I felt like I should be a couple under. Then birdied 17 and 18 which kind of got the round going, which felt like it rewarded my patience in not getting frustrated. Yeah, definitely patient out there. Then I got into a nice groove on the back nine, a lot of fairways and greens and gave myself some looks.

It’s such a tough golf course, there’s stretches, there’s like a few holes where it’s really tough and then you are given some birdie holes. Every hole, if you don’t hit it in position off the tee, it’s hard regardless of distance or par 5 or whatnot.

Yeah, I would say I felt pretty comfortable once I kind of hit the green on hole 6 and then hit in the fairway on 7, because those are two kind of tough pivotal holes where you can easily make a bogey on 6 or hit a foul ball on 7 and something crazy can happen. I felt like when I kind of got those in play and put myself in position, I was like, all right, we’re in this thing, calm down, relax. Obviously I would have liked to have made that putt on 7, but following up with a great pitch on 8 and making birdie on that hole, that’s when I really loosened up. And then yeah, I think when he bogeyed 9 and then I birdied 10 and then he bogeyed 11, I was like, all right, this is — let’s not let him back into this tournament. My caddie, John, and I made sure that we were pretty conservative into certain holes and then other ones be aggressive. For instance, like on 14 we laid up again and, you know, people might question that play with my distance, but I hit a cut and the wind is off the left and I felt like it’s either going to go way right or I have to start it over the lake and I can bring in a bogey. Things like that where we were conservative, but then I took advantage and hit great shots and I made birdie on that hole and then the par 5. So I didn’t let Xander get back into it to the best of my ability.”

Rory McIlroy (2021): “Yeah, I’ve putted well all week. Historically I’ve putted these greens well and I just, though they’ve changed from bent greens when I first came here to Bermudagrass, I’ve always been able to see the lines. So I’ve been comfortable with that. Then it’s just a matter of trusting that I’m putting good strokes on them. I think more than anything today, my speed was good and that was, you know, when the greens get tricky and there’s wind and there’s tough reads, speed’s almost more important than anything else. My speed was good today  and probably part of the reason why I was able to hole a few.”

Keith Mitchell (2021): “My driver feels great, and around this place you’ve really got to drive it well, so I’m sure the stats would say that. Really all of it feels good right now. Really just trying to keep the ball in front of me right now and see what we can do tomorrow. This is a Major championship test when you put yourself out of position and it turns almost impossible. You’ve really got to pick and choose to the flags necessarily. They can put them right on the grain changes and put them right on the edges and sometimes your good shot’s 25 feet from the hole and some holes you can go for birdie. That’s really why it feels that way, because it’s not like every hole you can attack. You have to be very precise.”

“Really tough golf courses demand every part of your game. I’ve definitely played poorly on tough golf courses, but my best weeks have been at the tough ones, Bay Hill, Honda, here. You just, when you hit a bad shot you get penalized and when you hit a good shot you get rewarded. Some golf courses on the PGA Tour where you can hit bad shots, get away with it and still try to make birdie. You can’t do that here. I think that’s a true test of golf. I don’t think golf would be fun if every course was like this. I just feel more comfortable around a tougher course.”

Viktor Hovland (2021): “ Yeah, it was weird, and sometimes you would feel a gust of 15 miles an hour and then it would just be dead quiet 15 seconds later. So it was strange. But this place is so big that, even though you’re in between decisions, you kind of have a bigger area you can kind of err towards. So if it would have been another place where the greens are smaller, it would have been I think a little tougher, but it definitely doesn’t make it easy when you’re hitting shots from 225 yards into par 4s. Yeah, it didn’t make it easier.”

“There’s one thing I feel like, not to say anything bad about this place, but I think this place is more of kind of a driving range golf course. The fairways are, they’re not narrow and they’re not wide, but it’s what you see, what you get. And the greens are pretty big. It’s all about just can you hit it in the centre of the face or are you hitting it in bunkers and rough and you’re going to have a tough day. I appreciate the more strategic places, but obviously if you come to this place and don’t like it, there’s something wrong with you.”

Max Homa (2019): “Honestly, if you look deep in the stats, which nobody does for me, but it’s been really good. I’ve been driving it great. That’s usually kind of my hiccup. I’ve been driving it pretty far and very straight. I just haven’t been chipping well and haven’t really made the putts to keep the round going and I did that really well yesterday. I thought it was pretty hard yesterday. Did that really well yesterday and just kept it going today. I usually hit the ball pretty well. A course like this sets up great for me, a lot of 7-irons, 8-irons in, drive it in the fairway. So I’m not really that surprised. Everybody else probably will be, but I was kind of waiting for this to happen.”

Jason Day (2018): “ Yeah, obviously we had Bermudagrass last August at the PGA, and this is, I think, definitely an easier grass to play on (overseeded with Poa Trivialis). I think Bermuda, coming out of the rough, you have more chances of having big flyers. The biggest thing is there were a couple times when I was in the rough and I really catch a flyer, and you know that when you’re in Bermudagrass, you’ve got to catch it. And if you’re in the rough and you’re trying to land it on these greens, which are bouncing five to 10 paces with a wedge, that makes it difficult to hold greens. I think this is definitely an easier grass, but also still playing difficult because it’s obviously the scores reflect how the course is.”

“Yeah, I know that I’ve had some decent finishes here, but the PGA definitely kind of tipped it over the edge. I know that I can play well here because of how difficult the golf course is. When I realized last week, you know, we’re coming into a week like this where it’s 80 to 85 degrees, hot. They had some good rain the week prior to that, the course is going to be in perfect condition how the grass has come in. You’ve just got to come out and try and get yourself — plot yourself around the golf course. For me, I’m able to take some advantage with my driving. And it was good to be able to come to a golf course like this where I know it’s very difficult. I think everyone else is obviously having a tough time with it, too. It’s a major championship golf course so you’ve got to come out and be patient with yourself and take your chances when you get them.”

Justin Thomas (2017): “Yesterday I was playing really well, hitting great shots. When you have 4, 5, 6-irons in your hand, you need to be defensive. For the most part, I had some not aggressive but more aggressive than normal lines just because I felt good about my golf swing and what I was doing with my ball. If I have a longer club in my hand, I’m just trying to get it on the green and get out with a par and move on.”

“Any time you can get softer conditions, the golf course is going to be easier. Doesn’t matter what course it is. I mean, look at years at Augusta, the scores have been really low. I know there’s SubAir and they can get them firmer, but at the end of the day, when there’s no rain and the greens are really firm, it’s really difficult. And when the greens are softer, we’re pretty good at golf. So it’s a lot easier when the ball isn’t going to go as far as when it lands because we feel like we have more control over it. When you get as tough of greens and around the greens as it is out here, softness is going to allow us to hit more greens and get it closer to where we want. I would say that had pretty much all to do with it.”

Jimmy Walker: “We’re used to playing it with rye grass everywhere. It has a potential, with the pure Bermudagrass layout, to play really firm and really fast. That’s when golf gets really hard, when you start losing control of the golf ball. Bermuda rough tends to fly a lot, or it could come out where you get some horrendous lies. Guys are going to have to deal with that: ‘Am I going to get the big jumper?’ Or ‘Will I get the really soft shot that comes out?’ “Even around the greens, Bermuda rough is very hard to chip out of. The greens ought to be fast, and that’s the biggest variable, I would think.”

“I thought the new holes were great. The 1st has got a beautiful look to it. It’s reminiscent of the original tee shot and it opens up nice down there to the right, and the green, you can see the entire green. I love being able to see kind of where you’re going. All the new green complexes are very nice. They are not too tricky. They have got a lot of flat spots. They have got some movement in them but they have got flat spots where you like to put the pins and there’s plenty of room. Just I thought it looked really good. It’s going to be fun playing with all Bermuda. It will be a completely different test.”

Rory McIlroy: “The changes are good. It definitely makes the start of the golf course more challenging. The first hole, now instead of it being 3 wood and a wedge, it’s a driver and a good mid iron. I think you won’t really see guys getting off to the hot starts that they used to. You see guys maybe, especially those first six holes, you’d see guys 3 or 4 under par. I don’t think that’s going to happen now. And then the rest of the golf course is pretty much the same. Obviously they have lengthened 11 a little bit. But what they have done on 16, 17 and 18 over the years has stayed pretty much the same. I like the changes. I mean, I obviously like the golf course the way it was before. My record around there is pretty good. I fancy my chances around there. But it’s always been, I guess, a modern player’s golf course. You’ve got to, if you can drive it a long way, there’s an advantage there, especially coming in with the driveable par-4, 14th and in; the par-5 15 and the long holes coming in. So yeah, I think people will really enjoy it this year. It’s a great venue for a tournament and it will be a great venue for a Major, as well.”

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2024 – Schauffele – AM -9/62 – 30/1.
• 2023 – DeChambeau – AM -4/66 – 80/1.
• 2022 – McIlroy – AM -5/65 – 20/1.
• 2021 – Conners – PM -5/67 – 66/1.
• 2020 – Day / Todd – AM/PM Split -5/65 – 50/1 & 90/1.
• 2019 – Koepka – AM -7/63 – 25/1.
• 2018 – Woodland – PM -6/64 – 100/1.
• 2017 – Kisner/Olesen – AM/PM Split -4/67 – 80/1 & 125/1.
• 2016 – Walker – AM -6/65.
• 2015 – D Johnson – AM -6/66.
• 2014 – Chappell/Palmer/Westwood – 1AM/2PM -6/65.
• 2013 – Furyk/Scott – AM/PM Split -5/65.
• 2012 – Pettersson – AM -6/66.
• 2011 – Stricker – AM -7/63.
• 2010 – Kuchar – PM -5/67.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 9 – Scottie Scheffler.
• 7 – Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas.
• 5 – Jordan Spieth.
• 4 – Sam Burns, Jason Day, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed.
• 3 – Sergio Garcia, Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith, Nick Taylor.
• 2 – Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Jason Dufner, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Viktor Hovland, Mackenzie Hughes, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, Davis Riley, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Sepp Straka, Jimmy Walker.
• 1 – Ludvig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, Keegan Bradley, Rafael Campos, Wyndham Clark, Corey Conners, Luke Donald, Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ryan Fox, Ben Griffin, Adam Hadwin, Brian Harman, Tyrell Hatton, Garrick Higgo, Joe Highsmith, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Martin Kaymer, Kurt Kitayama, Patton Kizzire, Min Woo Lee, Shane Lowry, Maverick McNealy, Keith Mitchell, Taylor Moore, Collin Morikawa, Andrew Novak, Seamus Power, J.T. Poston, Aaron Rai, J.J. Spaun, Jhonattan Vegas, Gary Woodland, Kevin Yu, Will Zalatoris.

Winning prices in the PGA Championship can vary significantly. Short prices such as Rory McIlroy – who’s won this title twice at 20/1 (2012) and 5/1 (2014) – and Jason Day at 14/1 (2015) have had recent success. Throw in Brooks Koepka at 20/1, 11/1 and 18/1 over 2018, 2019 and 2023 – plus 2022 winner Justin Thomas at 16/1 and Xander Schauffele last year at 18/1 – and 8 of the past 13 winners have landed at sub-20/1.

Add Collin Morikawa (2020) at 35/1, Justin Thomas (2017) at 45/1 and Jason Dufner at 40/1. So 11 of the last 13 PGA Championships have been won at 45/1 or less.

To this point there are also four triple-digit exceptions since 2009, with Phil Mickelson’s 250/1 win in 2021 at Kiawah Island very fresh in the mind. Jimmy Walker is another, as he played brilliantly throughout at Baltusrol in 2016 to lead from start to finish and capture his first Major title at an unbelievable (after the tournament) 150/1. He joined Keegan Bradley (2011) and Y.E. Yang (2009) who won at 175/1 and 150/1 respectively.

The PGA Championship in recent history has seen a plethora of long-hitters getting the job done, with many capturing their first Major titles. Exclude Oak Hill in 2013 (7,163 yard Par 70) and TPC Harding Park in 2020 (7,234 yard Par 70), which weren’t your stereotypical long, PGA Championship venues, and Y.E. Yang (2009), Martin Kaymer (2010), Keegan Bradley (2011), Jason Day (2015), Jimmy Walker (2016), Justin Thomas (2017) and Xander Schauffele (2024) have all been long off the tee and captured first-time Majors to boot. Add Dufner and Morikawa to that first-time list on those shorter Par 70s.

Rory McIlroy (winner at Kiawah Island in 2012 and 2014), Brooks Koepka who drove the field into submission at Bellerive (2018), Bethpage Black (2019) and Oak Hill (2023), plus Justin Thomas (2022) at Southern Hills who ranked 11th for Driving Distance – All Drives landing in Oklahoma – provide even more evidence that long hitters have a distinct advantage at “traditional” PGA Championships. Kiawah Island was by the coast, but both of those renewals were won by Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson – the latter still ranked 50th in Driving Distance on the PGA Tour when becoming the oldest Major winner at 50 years of age 3 years ago.

Naturally the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone South is no more, but the idea that a player will need to be playing well in their immediate start, which for most of the elite will be either the Truist Championship at Philadelphia Cricket Club, or the CJ Cup Byron Nelson / LIV South Korea the week before, should be one to consider and we have masses of precedent here. Going back to 2006, every winner of the PGA Championship has played within the past 2 weeks prior to their victory and up until Phil Mickelson, had finished no worse than 28th (Justin Thomas 2017). Phil being Phil finished 69th at the Wells Fargo. Justin Thomas in 2022 finished 5th the week before at the Byron Nelson, Brooks Koepka 5th at LIV Tulsa and Xander Schauffele 2nd at Quail Hollow 12 months ago.

Go back further to 2002, 2004 and 2005 and you will see that PGA Championship winners Rich Beem, Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh finished 1st, 10th and 1st respectively in their preceding outings. So strong form in seems a pre-requisite.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 10:45BST 12.5.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.