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Congratulations if you were on-board either Kristoffer Reitan or Brandt Snedeker last week at Monday best prices of 90/1 and 175/1 respectively. Ludvig Aberg delivered a part each-way return for this column with his T8 finish at 14/1 with Betfred.
On to this week and the 108th PGA Championship is visiting Aronimink Golf Club for the first time since 1962. It should be an absolute feast of golf with the deepest field in Major Championship golf present. We’ve seen Aronimink sparsely on the PGA Tour over fairly recent times with Justin Rose (2010), Nick Watney (2011) and Keegan Bradley (2018) winning here.
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Course Guide: Considered the 3rd-best course in Pennsylvania behind Merion and Oakmont, which between them have hosted 15 U.S. Opens, Aronimink is another classical golf course which is held in high esteem. Aronimink hosted the 2010 and 2011 AT&T National tournaments hosted by Tiger Woods, before a freshly restored Gil Hanse design was played at the 2018 BMW Championship. It’s this course that will host the PGA Championship, with it being stretched yardage-wise from the 7,267 yard, Par 70 we saw at the BMW, to 7,394 yards. That’s pretty short for a PGA Championship course.
Aronimink GC, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania: Designer: Donald Ross 1928, with Ron Pritchard 2000 renovation & Hanse 2017 restoration, Course Type: Up-State, Classical, Medium; Par: 70; Length: 7,394 yards; Number of Holes Water is in Play: 2; Number of Bunkers; 180; Acres of Fairway: 31; Fairways: L-93 Bentgrass; Rough: Tall Fescue/Poa Annua 3.25″; Greens: 8,200 sq.ft average featuring Penn A1/A4 Bentgrass; Target Stimpmeter: +12ft
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Aronimink Golf Club and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Donald PGA Tour designs plus Gil Hanse golf course designs and restorations include:
Donald Ross
Gil Hanse
Course Overview: Aronimink 2026-style, or should that be 1928-style, is much shorter than standard PGA Championship venues. What it lacks in length, it will attempt to make up for in course speed, a dangerous plan in Pennsylvania in mid-May. Keep your eye on weather forecasts, as with no Sub-Air System, persistent rain would make this course extremely vulnerable.
The real stars of the course are the greens and associated bunkers both fairway and greenside. Hanse added plenty of sand hazards. Where Aronimink previously featured 74 bunkers, it now features 180, reverting to the original Ross design featuring clusters of 3 to 4 smaller bunkers. Sand Save statistics are worth a glance I’d suggest.
Green are huge at 8,200 sq.ft average featuring Penn A1/A4 Bentgrass. Plenty are defended by front bunkers – making aerial attack the only way to access. They are contoured and many feature ridges that run across them, making putting, especially distance lag putts – there will be plenty on greens this size – difficult. However the whole restoration focussed on giving players more fairway in which to position themselves strategically for their approaches to bigger greens, which will feature tucked pin positions, in tough to access quadrants.
In essence, the main defence of Aronimink is the speed of the course. 2018 featured soft playing conditions and Keegan Bradley won with a -20/260 total. All of those within the top 10 finished with a -16/264 or better total. Now the course in 2026 will play over 100 yards longer, but as Valhalla, 2 years ago proved, length alone does not keep scoring Major tough at a modern day PGA Championship. However if Kerry Haigh, Chief Championships Officer of the PGA of America, can tinker and get tournament fairway and green speeds up to where he wants them, I’d expect a low double-digit winning total.
PGA Championship Winners: 2025: Scottie Scheffler (-11); 2024: Xander Schauffele (-21); 2023: Brooks Koepka (-9); 2022: Justin Thomas (-6); 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6); 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13); 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8); 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16); 2017: Justin Thomas (-8); 2016: Jimmy Walker (-14); 2015: Jason Day (-20); 2014: Rory McIlroy (-16); 2013: Jason Dufner (-10); 2012: Rory McIlroy (-13); 2011: Keegan Bradley (-8); 2010: Martin Kaymer (-11); 2009: Y.E. Yang (-8).
OWGR of PGA Championship Winners: 2025: Scheffler 1; 2024: Schauffele 3; 2023: Koepka 44; 2022: Thomas 9; 2021: Mickelson 115; 2020: Morikawa 12; 2019: Koepka 3; 2018: Koepka 4; 2017: Thomas 14.
Datagolf Ranking of PGA Championship Winners: 2025: Scheffler 1; 2024: Schauffele 2; 2023: Koepka 38; 2022: Thomas 2; 2021: Mickelson 158; 2020: Morikawa 10; 2019: Koepka 12; 2018: Koepka 14; 2017: Thomas 18.
Path to Victory: Below are end of round positions for PGA Championship winners:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the PGA Championship winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
Incoming Form of PGA Championship winners since 2010:
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combi Stats | Recent Majors Form.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Cameron Young; 3) J.J. Spaun; 4) Scottie Scheffler; 5) Jon Rahm; 6) Matt Fitzpatrick; 7) Alex Fitzpatrick; 8) Tommy Fleetwood; 9) Kurt Kitayama; 10) Adam Scott.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
PGA Championship Winners & Prices: 2025: Scheffler 5/1J/F; 2024: Schauffele 18/1; 2023: Koepka 18/1; 2022: Thomas 16/1; 2021: Mickelson 250/1; 2020: Morikawa 35/1; 2019: Koepka 11/1JF; 2018: Koepka 20/1; 2017: Thomas 45/1; 2016: Walker 150/1; 2015: Day 14/1; 2014: McIlroy 5/1F; 2013: Dufner 40/1; 2012: McIlroy 20/1; 2011: Bradley 175/1; 2010: Kaymer 50/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 61/1; Average: 58/1.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Newtown Square, Pennsylvania is here. Mother Nature looks like she will throw up a fascinating mix of weather conditions for the PGA Championship this week. Now Aronimink and its difficulty is all about firm and fast conditions, so a dry spring in Philadelphia looks promising. 5mm of rain over the prior weekend isn’t a problem. The only downside could be Wednesday night into tournament Thursday where precipitation chance is around the 70% mark.
When the tournament starts it’s a tale of the first and latter 36 holes. Thursday and Friday looks cool 14-18 Celsius – 57-64 Fahrenheit with 15-20 mph north-westerly gusts on Thursday easing to 10-15 mph in the same direction Friday. Depending on the level of pre-tournament rain, we may see soft conditions on Thursday, potentially even Friday.
The weekend though will see the course dry. 24 Celsius – 75 Fahrenheit on Saturday becomes 27 Celsius – 81 Fahrenheit on Sunday. Saturday sees calmer conditions. Sunday looks hot and breezy 15-25mph mph Westerly – with the course sure to be firming by the minute.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Valspar Championship / Hainan Classic which includes PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Here is how Keegan Bradley won the 2018 BMW Championship here at Aronimink from a statistical perspective:
Strokes Gained:
Statistically, from a Stroke Gained perspective, Keegan gained 4.377 strokes from Tee to Green (40%) and 7.158 Putting (60%).
Let’s take a view from players as to how Aronimink sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Justin Rose (2018): “I think it’s out there. It’s there for the taking. After the hour rain, heavy rain we had last night, the greens were even softer. Yesterday the greens were soft-ish but there were occasional areas they were getting firm, whereas today I think you could be very confident with your iron play. Actually today the challenge was not spinning it too much with wedge shots. The pins can be tricky here, they can put them, you know, on to the shelves which is hard to get to with your wedges, also a lot of pins where you can use the sideboards and backboards to feed it to the hole. Mixture of easy and hard pins but it’s all about precision iron play. I guess I was on today.
It’s a golf course that suits a lot of guys if you can fly it 295, 300 in the air, really kind of opens out in certain areas and with the soft conditions guys are having short irons. Comes down to putter.”
Tiger Woods (2018): “You definitely could do it today. The fairways are ample wide and the greens are soft, and the positives right now, we’re driving it down there anywhere between 310 and 340 and so it’s really not that long a golf course right now. Lot of wedges and you have to hit your wedges well, get your distance. Give yourself at least 10, 12 looks at putts and you get on the hot run like I did, I’m sure what Rory is doing right now you can do it.
Longest iron in was probably 9-iron. It’s so hot and the ball is going forever and so it’s just really not playing its yardage. Every hole is 455 to 480 but that’s just driver and wedge under these conditions right now. That’s going to change, the rain comes in and the ball is not rolling, not flying as far but as of right now it’s pretty short.”
Jordan Spieth (2018): “I played two of the long par-3s today. They’re definitely the meat of the golf course and they’ll force you to try and feed 5, 4 irons into difficult hole locations because you can feed them in there. The slopes kind of work towards the holes where a good shot from 215-yard is rewarded. But from what I’ve seen on those holes thus far, in the middle of the green never hurts you, recognize they’re the harder holes, take your 3, run and you have par-5s and some wedges into par-4s to make some birdies.
You just kind of inch your way. Consistent golf is what I’m trying to do. Last week I did it for the first three rounds and pressed a little bit on Sunday trying to do a little much around the middle of the round. But you know, 4-under a round could win this tournament. You’re going to get opportunities to make at least four birdies a round. Just limit the mistakes.”
Rory McIlroy (2018): “I guess I had a preconceived idea of what Aronimink was going to be and it wasn’t that. We played a few years ago I thought, I automatically thought it was going to be a similar golf course, bigger fairways and greens. Just a bigger piece of property. So, yeah, it sets up well. I think if you can get driver in your hand, the fairways are wide, it’s pretty soft. You can take advantage of your length if you have that and it makes the course definitely a lot more playable and a lot more scoreable.
But, yeah, like it’s a golf course where big wide fairways, if you carry it 300, 310 off the tee it’s a massive advantage and it’s a golf course that just seems to fit my eye. I like the greens. You can work the ball in off the slopes. You got to hit it pretty wild to start missing fairways. So if you get your ball in the short stuff you can get it going.
I think, you know, coming into today, I thought, you know, I think I’m a pretty good judge of what the winning score is going to be at the end of the week and I thought it would be somewhere between sort of 15 and 20-under par. So I thought, you know, you’re going to see guys shooting 63, 62s. It’s just, I guess this golf course is meant to play a little firmer than what it is. It started to firm up a little bit out there later on in the round but when the fairways are that wide and it’s still pretty soft, all these guys are going to make birdies.”
Rickie Fowler (2018): “Across the 3 par-3s at over 215 yards, I take middle of the green on all of them for four days. And I played the back-9 this morning and the first par-3 back there, I just hit, it was a smooth 4-iron to the middle of the green there, and 17 today was playing into the wind and I hit a good 4-iron that came up short so I had to take a head cover off and hit a 5-wood. It was a soft one but I hit it in the middle of the green.
I mean the biggest thing on those par-3s, I mean you end up making a long putt, great, you’re going to make up at least a shot on the field. But middle of the green and two putts and walk away and I’ll be happy.”
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
Winning prices in the PGA Championship can vary significantly. Short prices such as Rory McIlroy – who’s won this title twice at 20/1 (2012) and 5/1F (2014) – and Jason Day at 14/1 (2015) have had recent success. Throw in Brooks Koepka at 20/1, 11/1JF and 18/1 over 2018, 2019 and 2023 – plus 2022 winner Justin Thomas at 16/1, Xander Schauffele at 18/1, plus defending champion at 5/1JF – 9 of the past 14 winners have landed at sub 20/1.
You can also add Collin Morikawa (2020) at 35/1, Justin Thomas (2017) at 45/1 and Jason Dufner at 40/1. So 12 of the last 14 PGA Championships have been won at 45/1 or less.
To this point, there are also four triple-digit exceptions since 2009, with Phil Mickelson’s 250/1 win in 2021 at Kiawah Island pretty fresh in the mind. Jimmy Walker is another, as he played brilliantly throughout at Baltusrol in 2016 to lead from start to finish and capture his first Major title at an unbelievable (after the tournament) 150/1. He joined Keegan Bradley (2011) and Y.E. Yang (2009) who won at 175/1 and 150/1 respectively.
The PGA Championship in recent history has seen a plethora of long hitters getting the job done, with many capturing their first Major titles. Exclude Oak Hill in 2013 (7,163 yard Par 70) and TPC Harding Park in 2020 (7,234 yard Par 70), which weren’t your stereotypical long, PGA Championship venues – Y.E. Yang (2009), Martin Kaymer (2010), Keegan Bradley (2011), Jason Day (2015), Jimmy Walker (2016), Justin Thomas (2017) and Xander Schauffele (2024), have all been long off the tee and captured first-time Majors to boot. Add Dufner and Morikawa to that first-time list on those shorter Par 70s.
Rory McIlroy (winner in 2012 and 2014), Brooks Koepka who drove the field into submission at Bellerive (2018), Bethpage Black (2019) and Oak Hill (2023), plus Justin Thomas (2022) at Southern Hills who ranked 11th for Driving Distance – All Drives landing in Oklahoma – provide even more evidence that long hitters have a distinct advantage at “traditional” PGA Championships. Kiawah Island was by the coast, but both of those renewals were won by Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson – the latter still ranked 50th in Driving Distance on the PGA Tour when becoming the oldest Major winner at 50 years of age 5 years ago.
Naturally the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone South is no more, but the idea that a player will need to be playing well in their immediate start, which for most of the elite will be either the Cadillac Championship at Doral or the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow / LIV Virginia last week, should be one to consider and we have masses of precedent here. Going back to 2006, every winner of the PGA Championship has played within the past 2 weeks prior to their victory and up until Phil Mickelson, had finished no worse than 28th (Justin Thomas 2017). Phil being Phil finished 69th at the Wells Fargo. Justin Thomas in 2022 finished 5th the week before at the Byron Nelson, Brooks Koepka 5th at LIV Tulsa, Xander Schauffele 2nd at Quail Hollow and Scottie Scheffler won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 12 months ago.
Go back further to 2002, 2004 and 2005, and you will see that PGA Championship winners Rich Beem, Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh finished 1st, 10th and 1st respectively in their preceding outings. So strong form in seems a prerequisite.
Rory McIlroy 6pts Win Only 8/1 with Betfred
I have to back Rory McIlroy this week. A player who breaks established recent trends such as never back a defending champion at The Masters, he’s undoubtedly at a level which transcends the norm. Going into a select Green Jacket club with Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods for defending The Masters is a prime example of that. McIlroy now has 6 career Majors – that places him T12 all-time and gaining a 7th Major title here at an Aronimink course where he finished 5th at the 2018 BMW Championship on his last visit would take him to T7 all-time alongside Harry Vardon, Bobby Jones, Gene Sarazen, Sam Snead and Arnold Palmer. Not a bad group of players!
Rory, as he does, has been outspoken since his Masters victory in April, that winning Majors is his one and only focus, so it was fascinating to see him shake-off the competitive rust at Quail Hollow last week where he finished 19th. A pair of Friday and Sunday 67s were good enough for T2 and T9 rounds of the day respectively and showed what is available when Rory presses the accelerator. 1st for Stokes Gained Off the Tee and 14th for Strokes Gained on Approach translated to 5th for Strokes Gained Ball Striking. He was 1st for Driving Distance, plus from a traditional statistics perspective he was 3rd for Greens in Regulation and 9th for Ball Striking.
Rumoured to have spent plenty of time on property at Aronimink whilst a vast majority of the elite in this field toiled at the Blue Monster at Doral hosted Cadillac Championship, Rory will continue the tactic of being intimately up to speed with the venue – as per Augusta in early April. RESULT: T7
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Cameron Young 3pts EW 12/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
3 of the last 4 PGA Championships have been won by players ranked in the top 3 of the Datagolf Rankings on arrival. Scheffler was 5/1JF coming off a victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson a fortnight earlier. He ranked Number 1 (unsurprisingly). 2024 saw Number 2 ranked Xander Schauffele win at 18/1 – he’d finished 2nd behind Rory McIlroy the week before at Quail Hollow. Plus in 2022 Justin Thomas again ranked Number 2 in the Datagolf Rankings, arriving with a solid 5th at the proceeding Byron Nelson the week before.
All 4 of the last PGA Championship winners had finished in the top 8 of the preceding Masters Tournament, across Scheffler, Schauffele, Koepka and Thomas – 2022 through 2025.
In Cameron Young we have the current Datagolf ranked Number 3, who finished 10th last week at the Truist Championship. Prior to that he won the Cadillac Championship at Doral, finished 3rd at The Masters, and won the Players Championship – plus finished 3rd at the Signature event level Arnold Palmer Invitational. To say he’s a having a career-best season is both obvious and highlights just how well he’s been playing over the past 3 months – only Scheffler, Rahm, McIlroy and Young gain over 2 Strokes per Round in the current Datagolf rankings.
A player who only won his maiden PGA Tour title as recently as last August, Cameron has now won 3 of his last 15 PGA Tour starts and he’s also got a strong Major Championship CV. 7 top-9 finished at Majors since 2022 highlight a player who used to contend, when he didn’t have the winning habit, and they include 3rd at the 2022 PGA Championship played on the Bentgrass greens of Southern Hills. RESULT: T26
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J.J. Spaun 2pts EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
The last time we visited Pennsylvania J.J. Spaun won the U.S. Open at Oakmont. Now Oakmont is as extreme a test as you will find in Major Championship golf, but I like a nuggety sort like Spaun here at Aronimink too. The sort who makes Strokes Off the Tee through accuracy and mid-distance power, combined with top-level approach play can plot there way around this Ross design, whilst the wild and more flagrant will find bunkers and won’t be able to access tucked pins – a speciality this week I’m sure. Having a strategist on-board is no bad idea.
J.J.’s 3 wins have come at TPC San Antonio and Oakmont which are a 7438 yard, Par 72 and a 7,372 yard, Par 70 respectively, so Aronimink fits and his recent form since the start of April which includes 1st (Valero), 14th (Cadillac) and 5th (Truist) highlights a player who is undoubtedly on the upward trajectory.
5th for Total Driving and 2nd for Ball Striking at a Quail Hollow track that is ultimately too long for Spaun, he ranked 8th for Tee to Green and gained just a smidge under half a stroke per round with the putter. RESULT: MC
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Alex Fitzpatrick 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
I’ll take a punt that Alex Fitzpatrick will continue to play some of the best golf on the planet for just one more week. And for those disbelieving that he can play at a Major Championship, his one and only start in a Major saw him finish T17 at the 2023 Open Championship, where Netflix Full Swing viewers will remember he was 9th heading into the Final Round at Royal Liverpool (Hoylake). He’s undoubtedly a better player now.
Form of 1-1-9-4 is incredible and includes wins at the Hero Indian Open on the DP World Tour and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with brother Matt. Those who were vocal about Alex gaining a full +2 year card on the PGA Tour via the team event, may have slightly adjusted their view as Alex has gone onto score 9th at the Cadillac Championship and 4th in the Truist Championship – both in top-level Signature level PGA Tour events. Sunday may have been a step too far for 27 year-old at Quail Hollow, but the Sheffield man was 1st for Strokes Gained on Approach and for Tee to Green in North Carolina, following on from 1st for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 5th for Tee to Green in Florida, the week before. RESULT: T14
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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 10:40BST 11.5.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.