Before we go into the detail surrounding the RBC Canadian Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Guide: We have a brand new course on the PGA Tour to build into our thoughts. Oakdale Golf and Country Club is the 37th course in the 117 year history of the Canadian Open to host the tournament. By the way, the Canadian Open is the third oldest continuously run event on the PGA Tour. The course has never seen top level action, but will also be the host course for the 2026 renewal as well.
Oakdale Golf & Country Club, Toronto, Ontario: Designer: Stanley Thompson, 1926, and Robbie Robinson 1957, Ian Andrew renovation 2018; Course Type: Classical, Mid-Score, Short; Par: 72; Length: 7,264 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-play: 7; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with ryegrass 4″; Greens: 6,000 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Tournament Stimp: 12ft.
Course Overview: Oakdale G&CC features 3 distinct sets of 9-holes: the Thompson, the Homenuik, and the Knudson, named in honour of PGA Tour winner George Knudson. The course the PGA Tour will play this week is a hybrid, with holes taken across all 3 courses, including all 9 holes from Knudson.
The course, as you would expect in the lavish Oakdale – Beverley Heights suburb of Toronto, is a parkland, tree-lined affair and is classical in nature. The course only measures 7,264 yards, which is short as it’s a Par 72. But many of the holes, especially on the front side, are quite undulating, with uphill approach shots being predominant. The front-9 will undoubtedly be far more of a test, with the shorter back side producing a plethora of scoring opportunities.
It’s also a hybrid specimen, which features 3 par-3s and 3 par-5s and 12 par-4s. A 36/36 set-up, the front side features a single par-5 with a couple more on the back side.
Let’s start with the par-3s which compared to recent stop-offs on the PGA Tour look short. The 11th hole is the longest at 208 yards, with the 9th and the 14th coming in at 193 yards and 172 yards respectively. Small green complexes aside, last year’s venue St George’s Golf & Country Club had a more stringent feel to them, with 4 par-3s measuring between 200 and 215 yards long.
The 12 (yes 12) par-4s are intriguing too. The 1st (379 yards), 2nd (384 yards), 8th (354 yards), 10th (367 yards) 13th (424 yards), 15th (419 yards), 16th (398 yards) and 17th (432 yards) all look like birdie opportunities with a wedge in hand. There are no par-4s measuring above 490 yards, but it’s noticeable that the 4 stringent tests are all consecutive holes on the front side namely the 3rd through the 6th holes.
Onto the par-5s which at 590 (8th), 553 yards (12th) and 496 yards (18th) are gettable, and almost ludicrously short in terms of the closing hole. One thing to note though with the closing hole is that it plays seriously uphill. All-in-all, Oakdale looks a fair test in spots, but doesn’t look overly strenuous.
And it’s not as if Golf Canada are averse to low scores winning their national Open title. Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Jhonattan Vegas have won this title at -19, -22, -23 and -21 respectively over the last 4 renewals at St George’s (McIlroy), Hamilton G&CC (McIlroy) and Glen Abbey (Johnson and Vegas).
RBC Canadian Open Winners: 2021: Rory McIlroy (-19); 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22); 2018: Dustin Johnson (-23); 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21); 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12); 2015: Jason Day (-17); 2014: Tim Clark (-17); 2013: Brandt Snedeker (-16); 2012: Scott Piercy (-17); 2011: Sean O’Hair (-4); 2010: Carl Pettersson (-14).
- 2022: Rory McIlroy 66-68-65-62 -19/261 AM/PM Wave
- 2019: Rory McIlroy 67-66-64-61 -22/258 AM/PM Wave
OWGR of Pre U.S. Open Tournament Winners: 2022: McIlroy 8; 2021: Higgo 54; 2019: McIlroy 4; 2018: Dustin Johnson 2.
Cut Line: 2022: +1; 2019: -2.
Lead Score Progression:
- 2022: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -8; Round 3 -7; Round 4 -19.
- 2019: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -22.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose, Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, Corey Conners, Adrian Meronk, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood and Cameron Young.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
RBC Canadian Open Winners & Prices: 2021: McIlroy 10/1; 2019: McIlroy 10/1; 2018: Johnson 7/1F; 2017: Vegas 125/1; 2016: Vegas 125/1; 2015: Day 9/1F; 2014: Clark 66/1; 2013: Snedeker 14/1; 2012: Piercy 50/1; 2011: Sean O’Hair 100/1; 2010: Pettersson 80/1. Past 6 Renewals Average: 50/1 Overall Average: 54/1.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Oakdale, Toronto, Ontario, is here.
With no rain in Toronto for over 15 days and with none forecast until Sunday, Course Superintendent Patrick Greenman will have complete control of where he wants the golf course to be. With the PGA Tour in Oakdale for the very first time, I’d expect easy scoring conditions across for the main with watered receptive greens. Temperatures between 17-23 degrees Celsius – 63-73 Fahrenheit – will be comfortable with little of real interest until Sunday. The forecast suggests winds picking up to around 20mph from the north-west with a 60% chance of rain throughout the morning and into the afternoon. With no electrical activity attached, play will continue as long as the course allows.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the RBC Heritage which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Adrian Meronk; 2) Vincent Norrman; 3) Sam Bennett / Garrick Higgo; 5) Cameron Champ; 6) Tyrrell Hatton; 7) Joseph Bramlett / S.H. Kim; 9) Tommy Fleetwood; 10) Corey Conners; 11) Brent Grant / Trevor Cone / Cameron Young; 14) Nicolai Hojgaard; 15) Marty Dou / Rory McIlroy / Keith Mitchell / Trevor Werbylo; 19) Will Gordon / Shane Lowry; 21) Lee Hodges; 22) Kevin Chappell; 23) Kyle Westmoreland; 24) Akshay Bhatia / James Hahn.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Andrew Novak / Justin Rose; 3) Augusto Nunez; 4) Mark Hubbard; 5) Brandt Snedeker; 6) Carson Young; 7) Shane Lowry; 8) Vincent Norrman; 9) Adrian Meronk; 10) Nate Lashley; 11) Lucas Glover / Dylan Wu; 13) Aaron Baddeley / David Lipsky; 15) Eric Cole; 16) Ryan Armour / Joseph Bramlett / Matt Fitzpatrick; 19) Tommy Fleetwood; 20) Corey Conners / Doc Redman; 22) Aaron Rai; 23) Scott Piercy / Chez Reavie / Erik van Rooyen.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Harry Hall; 2) Jonathan Byrd; 3) Derek Ernst; 4) Aaron Baddeley / Brice Garnett; 6) Brian Gay / Justin Rose / Brandt Snedeker; 9) Eric Cole; 10) Rory McIlroy; 11) Matthias Schwab / Roger Sloan; 13) Tyrrell Hatton / Kevin Roy; 15) Tommy Fleetwood / Matt Kuchar; 17) Matt Fitzpatrick; 18) Robert Streb; 19) Austin Cook / Geoff Ogilvy / Davis Thompson; 22) Mackenzie Hughes / Brendon Todd; 24) Harry Higgs / Peter Malnati.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Adrian Meronk; 2) Vincent Norrman / Justin Rose; 4) Tyrrell Hatton; 5) Rory McIlroy; 6) Tommy Fleetwood; 7) Matt Fitzpatrick; 8) Joseph Bramlett; 9) Eric Cole; 10) Corey Conners / Shane Lowry / Brandt Snedeker; 13) Mark Hubbard; 14) Charley Hoffman; 15) Andrew Novak / Carson Young; 17) Kevin Roy; 18) Michael Kim; 19) Akshay Bhatia; 20) Sam Bennett; 21) Aaron Rai / Greyson Sigg / Alex Smalley; 24) Nate Lashley / Augusto Nunez / Davis Thompson.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Aaron Baddeley; 2) Tyrrell Hatton; 3) Chez Reavie; 4) Sahith Theegala; 5) Carson Young; 6) Ben Martin; 7) Tommy Fleetwood / Nate Lashley; 9) Marty Dou / Michael Kim; 11) Ryan Brehm / Matt Kuchar; 13) Austin Smotherman; 14) Michael Block / Scott Piercy; 16) Sam Burns / Brendon Todd; 18) Nicolai Hojgaard / Adam Long / Maverick McNealy; 21) Brian Gay / Adam Hadwin / Keith Mitchell; 24) Bill Haas / Dylan Wu.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Tyrrell Hatton; 2) Justin Rose; 3) Adrian Meronk; 4) Rory McIlroy; 5) Tommy Fleetwood; 6) Vincent Norrman / Carson Young; 8) Aaron Baddeley / Matt Fitzpatrick; 10) Joseph Bramlett; 11) Eric Cole / Nate Lashley; 13) Corey Conners; 14) Mark Hubbard; 15) Michael Kim; 16) Brandt Snedeker; 17) Scott Piercy / Kevin Roy; 19) Sam Burns / Nicolai Hojgaard; 21) James Hahn / Sahith Theegala; 23) Doug Ghim; 24) Jonathan Byrd / Marty Dou / Matt Kuchar / Chez Reavie / Adam Svensson.
Incoming form of RBC Canadian Open winners since 2010:
- Rory McIlroy: 18th Memorial/8th PGA/5th Wells Fargo/2nd Augusta.
- Rory McIlroy: MC Memorial/8th PGA/8th Wells Fargo/21st Augusta.
- Dustin Johnson: MC Open/3rd US Open/1st St Jude/8th Memorial.
- Jhonattan Vegas: MC Open/MC National/MC Travelers/MC US Open.
- Jhonattan Vegas: 4th Barbasol/53rd Barracuda/44th Congressional/MC Memorial.
- Jason Day: 4th Open/9th US Open/MC Memorial/MC TPC Sawgrass.
- Tim Clark: 5th JDC/MC Greenbrier/MC Travelers/19th St Jude.
- Brandt Snedeker: 11th Open/8th AT&T National/17th US Open/MC St Jude.
- Scott Piercy: 3rd JDC/12th Greenbrier/ MC US Open/MC Memorial.
- Sean O’Hair: MC Open/MC AT&T National/63rd Travelers/MC Memorial.
- Carl Pettersson: MC JDC/6th AT&T National/34th Travelers/28th Memorial.
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score at RBC Canadian Open since 2015. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
- 2022 – Clark – AM -7/63 – 125/1.
- 2019 – Bradley – AM -7/63 – 60/1.
- 2018 – Garrigus – AM -9/63 – 200/1.
- 2017 – Chappell/Every/Hagy/Schniederjans/Swafford – 1AM/4PM -7/65 – 50/1 250/1 125/1 80/1 100/1.
- 2016 – D Johnson/List – AM/PM Split -6/66.
- 2015 – Grillo – AM -8/64.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 4 – Rory McIlroy, Brandt Snedeker.
- 2 – Scott Piercy, Chez Reavie, Justin Rose, Nick Watney.
- 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Cameron Champ, Jason Dufner, Matt Fitzpatrick, Bill Haas, James Hahn, Russell Knox, Matt Kuchar, Nate Lashley, Shane Lowry, William McGirt, Sean O’Hair, Nick Taylor, Kevin Tway, Erik van Rooyen, Richy Werenski.
First off we must remember that this week can be a nightmare for tipsters, punters and bookmakers alike with U.S. Open Sectional Qualifying taking place on Monday around 9 locations in the United States. Naturally players having to expand their efforts in the US-based qualifiers will not be arriving in Toronto, Ontario until late Monday evening at the earliest. And expect WDs in the direct build-up to the tournament through Monday and into Tuesday.
Traditionally, the mix of winners across the tournament before the U.S. Open is a little confusing. Up until recently, this week always saw the annual trip to TPC Southwind in Memphis for the FedEx St Jude Classic. Memphis produced 4 maiden PGA Tour victors in the last 9 renewals post-2010. That could be something worth bearing in mind. One of those was Daniel Berger who won at TPC Southwind at 33/1 (2016) and 28/1 when defending his first ever PGA our title (2017). For both of his wins the Floridian was ranked within the OWGR top 50.
Indeed high-class winners who had already qualified for the U.S. Open have won the week before in 2008, 2010 (12/1), 2012 (20/1), 2016 (33/1), 2017 (28/1), 2018 (7/1F), 2019 (10/1) and 2022 (10/1) – namely Justin Leonard, Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger (twice), Dustin Johnson (twice) and Rory McIlroy (twice). They undoubtedly took the opportunity to land a PGA Tour title with no hesitation, as did Garrick Higgo in 2021 who won at the one-off Palmetto Championship at 50/1. He entered the week ranked 54th in the OWGR and in red-hot form on the European Tour (as was) before grabbing a PGA Tour win as a non-member.
So that’s an elite (I have extended to the OWGR top 55 when victorious) winner the week before the U.S. Open percentage of 64% – 9 winners across the last 14 renewals – when the U.S. Open has been played in June. Food for thought, when linked to the Tour maidens angle as well.
