You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for the RBC Canadian Open at bet365 News.
Course Guide: We return to the North Course at TPC Toronto for the second of three consecutive RBC Canadian Opens. The North Course at TPC Toronto is the 38th course in the 121 year history of the Canadian Open to host the tournament, which it will also do in 2027. By the way, the Canadian Open is the third oldest continuously run event on the PGA Tour.
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley – North Course, Alton, Ontario: Designer: Doug Carrick 2001, Ian Andrew renovation 2023; Course Type: Parkland, Up-State, Medium Length, Mid-Score; Par: 70; Length: 7,389 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 3; Number of Sand Bunkers: 48; Acres of Fairway: 32; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with Tall Fescue 3.75″; Greens: 6,500 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass with Poa Annua.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Toronto and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
- TPC Toronto: 35-37 yards at 300 yards.
- Muirfield Village: 24 yards at 300 yards.
- Colonial: 25-30 yards at 300 yards.
- TPC Craig Ranch: 25-28 yards.
- Aronimink: 30 yards.
- Quail Hollow: 28 yards.
- Blue Monster, Doral: 25-40 yards.
- Harbour Town: 22-25 yards.
- Augusta National: Average 50 yards.
- Oaks Course: 25-30 yards.
- Memorial Park: 30–40 yards.
- Copperhead: Average 20 yards.
- TPC Sawgrass: Average 28 yards.
- Bay Hill: Average 30 yards.
- PGA National: Average 28 yards.
- Riviera: Average 27 yards.
- Pebble Beach: Average 30-33 yards. Spyglass Hill: 25-30 yards.
- TPC Scottsdale: Average 38 yards.
- Torrey Pines South: Average 24-27 yards. Torrey Pines North: Average 24-27 yards.
- Pete Dye Stadium: Average 33 yards.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
- 2025: 68.75 (-1.25), Rank 31 of 50 courses
Course Overview: The North Course at TPC Toronto was originally built in 2001 and was revamped in 2023, reopening for action in the spring of 2024. Indeed it hosted the Fortinet Cup Championship on the PGA Tour Americas in September. For that it played as a 7,445 yard, Par 70, so length has been taken out of the format for the PGA Tour – 56 yards to be precise. A parkland course, holes are framed by trees, but this isn’t a claustrophobic layout. It’s a big ballpark.
That 2024 Fortinet Championship was won by Will Cannon (now on the Korn Ferry Tour). His winning score of -5/275 was in a tournament which featured high winds.
This Par 70 format is also unique in that the 2 par-5s are the 1st and 18th holes. Diametrically opposite on the scorecard, for those starting on the 1st Hole, don’t make a birdie on the short, 542 yard, Par-5 and you won’t see the other one until your closing hole. Naturally those starting on the 10th Hole will play them consecutively as their 9th and 10th holes of their round.
In terms of difficulty, the front 9 features 481 (2nd), 497 (5th) and 500 (9th) yard par-4s, with the closing 9 featuring 526 (13th), 513 (16th) and 530 (17th) yard par-4s. So that’s 6 par-4s between 481 and 530 yards, where longer irons are required to get home. Tie that in with a couple of long par-3s in the form of the 7th (237 yards) and the 11th (225 yards), and it was mentioned by a few players last year that’s it’s either wedges or long irons for approaches here.
Many of the holes are sweeping doglegs to elevated greens. Fairways are generous at 35-37 yards in landing areas. Miss them though and deep bunkering and shortish fescue off line make this course tough plus we are promised almost 4 inch long Kentucky Bluegrass rough.
RBC Canadian Open Winners: 2025: Ryan Fox (-18); 2024: Robert MacIntyre (-16); 2023: Nick Taylor (-17); 2022: Rory McIlroy (-19); 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22); 2018: Dustin Johnson (-23); 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21); 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12); 2015: Jason Day (-17); 2014: Tim Clark (-17); 2013: Brandt Snedeker (-16); 2012: Scott Piercy (-17); 2011: Sean O’Hair (-4); 2010: Carl Pettersson (-14).
- 2025: Ryan Fox 66-66-64-66 -18/262 – PM/AM Wave
OWGR of RBC Canadian Open Winners: 2025: Fox 75; 2024: MacIntyre 76; 2023: N Taylor 69; 2021: McIlroy 8; 2019: McIlroy 4; 2018: Dustin Johnson 2
Datagolf Ranking of RBC Canadian Open Winners: 2025: Fox 72; 2024: MacIntyre 151; 2023: N Taylor 58.
TPC Toronto Cut Line: 2025: -3.
Lead Score Progression:
2025: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -18.
Path to Victory: Below are end of round positions for the RBC Canadian Open winners at TPC Toronto:
- 2025 – Ryan Fox: Round 1: 18th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 1st.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the RBC Canadian Open winners here at TPC Toronto and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
- 2025 – Ryan Fox: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: level.
Incoming Form of RBC Canadian Open winners since 2010:
- Ryan Fox: 20th Memorial/28th PGA/1st Myrtle/60th CJ Byron.
- Robert MacIntyre: MC Colonial/8th PGA/13th Myrtle/MC CJ Byron.
- Nick Taylor: MC Colonial/MC PGA/2nd New Orleans/41st Harbour Town.
- Rory McIlroy: 18th Memorial/8th PGA/5th Wells Fargo/2nd Augusta.
- Rory McIlroy: MC Memorial/8th PGA/8th Wells Fargo/21st Augusta.
- Dustin Johnson: MC Open/3rd US Open/1st St Jude/8th Memorial.
- Jhonattan Vegas: MC Open/MC National/MC Travelers/MC US Open.
- Jhonattan Vegas: 4th Barbasol/53rd Barracuda/44th Congressional/MC Memorial.
- Jason Day: 4th Open/9th US Open/MC Memorial/MC TPC Sawgrass.
- Tim Clark: 5th JDC/MC Greenbrier/MC Travelers/19th St Jude.
- Brandt Snedeker: 11th Open/8th AT&T National/17th US Open/MC St Jude.
- Scott Piercy: 3rd JDC/12th Greenbrier/ MC US Open/MC Memorial.
- Sean O’Hair: MC Open/MC AT&T National/63rd Travelers/MC Memorial.
- Carl Pettersson: MC JDC/6th AT&T National/34th Travelers/28th Memorial
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Brooks Koepka; 2) Alex Fitzpatrick; 3) Wyndham Clark; 4) Eric Cole; 5) Justin Rose; 6) Matt Fitzpatrick; 7) Aaron Rai; 8) Johnny Keefer; 9) Nicolai Hojgaard; 10) Collin Morikawa.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
RBC Canadian Open Winners & Prices: 2025: Fox 80/1; 2024: MacIntyre 100/1; 2023: N Taylor 66/1; 2021: McIlroy 10/1; 2019: McIlroy 10/1; 2018: Johnson 7/1F; 2017: Vegas 125/1; 2016: Vegas 125/1; 2015: Day 9/1F; 2014: Clark 66/1; 2013: Snedeker 14/1; 2012: Piercy 50/1; 2011: O’Hair 100/1; 2010: Pettersson 80/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 53/1; Average: 60/1.
Historical Weather:
- 2025: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 72. Wind WSW 4-15 mph. Friday: Isolated rain showers. High of 65. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 66. Wind NW 12-20 mph, gusting to 26 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 68. Wind NW 5-15 mph.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Caledon, Ontario is here.
The PGA Tour moves to Ontario and conditions will be colder and windier than last week in Ohio. Warmish temperatures of 19-26 Celsius – 66-79 Fahrenheit – are down on what we saw last week, but warmer than what we saw here in Ontario 12 months ago.
The forecast in the main is windy – Westerly in the main. Up to 20mph on Thursday, 25-30 mph on Friday and 25 to potentially 35 mph on the weekend.
Rain is expected overnight tournament Tuesday in Wednesday – 85% likelihood – so I would expect soft conditions in play. With wind a factor. I’d expect watering throughout.
Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the RBC Heritage which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Michael Brennan; 2) Neal Shipley; 3) Rico Hoey; 4) Doug Ghim; 5) Kristof fer Reitan; 6) Brooks Koepka / Keith Mitchell; 8) Nicolai Hojgaard / Jesper Svensson; 10) Alex Fitzpatrick; 11) Taylor Moore; 12) Tommy Fleetwood; 13) Aldrich Potgieter; 14) Ryan Fox / Robert MacIntyre; 16) Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen; 17) Jimmy Stanger; 18) Sudarshan Yellamaraju; 19) Johnny Keefer / Aaron Rai / Michael Thorbjornsen / Jhonattan Vegas; 23) Bud Cauley / Keita Nakajima; 25) Tony Finau / Beau Hossler / Kevin Yu.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Aaron Rai; 2) Padraig Harrington; 3) Eric Cole; 4) Matt Fitzpatrick; 5) Tom Kim; 6) Zach Bauchou / Paul Waring; 8) Kristoffer Reitan / Sam Ryder; 10) Alex Noren; 11) Mark Hubbard; 12) Justin Rose; 13) Bud Cauley / Collin Morikawa; 15) Alex Fitzpatrick / Jackson Suber; 17) Wyndham Clark; 18) Mac Meissner; 19) Sam Burns; 20) Ryan Fox / Justin Lower; 22) Nick Taylor; 23) Luke Clanton / Nicolai Hojgaard / Andrew Putnam / Jordan Smith.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Padraig Harrington; 2) Adrien Dumont de Chassart; 3) Matt Fitzpatrick; 4) Mackenzie Hughes; 5) Andrew Putnam; 6) Peter Malnati / Mac Meissner; 8) Kristoffer Reitan; 9) Patton Kizzire; 10) Nick Dunlap; 11) Eric Cole; 12) Zach Bauchou / Tony Finau / Harry Hall / Denny McCarthy; 16) Brooks Koepka / Justin Rose; 18) Sahith Theegala; 19) Bud Cauley; 20) Collin Morikawa / Alex Noren / Nick Taylor; 23) Tommy Fleetwood / Jeffrey Kang / Max McGreevy / Camilo Villegas / Matt Wallace.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Aaron Rai / Kristof fer Reitan; 3) Zach Bauchou; 4) Padraig Harrington; 5) Matt Fitzpatrick; 6) Doug Ghim; 7) Brooks Koepka; 8) Paul Waring; 9) Eric Cole; 10) Bud Cauley / Mac Meissner; 12) Nicolai Hojgaard; 13) Ryan Fox / Mark Hubbard; 15) Alex Fitzpatrick / Tom Kim / Taylor Moore / Matthieu Pavon; 19) Justin Rose; 20) Tommy Fleetwood / Aldrich Potgieter; 22) Alex Noren; 23) Nick Dunlap / Collin Morikawa; 25) Jackson Suber.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Peter Malnati; 2) Sam Burns; 3) Eric Cole; 4) Wyndham Clark; 5) Denny McCarthy / Aaron Rai; 7) Steven Fisk; 8) Shane Lowry; 9) Beau Hossler / Ben Silverman; 11) Adrien Dumont de Chassart; 12) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Alex Noren; 14) Mac Meissner / Erik van Rooyen; 16) Bud Cauley / Aldrich Potgieter / Andrew Putnam / Nick Taylor; 20) Tommy Fleetwood / Lanto Griffin; 22) Seamus Power / Sam Ryder; 24) Taylor Pendrith; 25) A.J. Ewart / Max Homa / Mackenzie Hughes / Matt Wallace.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Aaron Rai; 2) Eric Cole; 3) Kristoffer Reitan; 4) Zach Bauchou; 5) Padraig Harrington; 6) Wyndham Clark; 7) Mac Meissner; 8) Sam Burns; 9) Bud Cauley / Matt Fitzpatrick / Doug Ghim / Alex Noren; 13) Brooks Koepka; 14) Aldrich Potgieter; 15) Tommy Fleetwood / Taylor Moore / Nick Taylor; 18) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 19) Alex Fitzpatrick / Shane Lowry / Andrew Putnam / Justin Rose / Jackson Suber; 24) Ryan Fox; 25) Peter Malnati.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the RBC Canadian Open winners here at TPC Toronto gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
- 2025, Ryan Fox (-18). SG Off the Tee: 33rd, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 22nd, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 16th.
Statistically from a Stroke Gained perspective Fox gained 9.30 strokes from Tee to Green (78%) and 2.69 Putting (22%).
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of RBC Canadian Open winners here at TPC Toronto gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
- 2024, Ryan Fox (-18). 318 yards (21st), 48.2% fairways (60th), 76.4% greens in regulation (13th), 70.6 % scrambling (19th), 1.66 putts per GIR (8th).
Let’s take a view from players as to how the North Course at TPC Toronto sets up and what skill sets the renovated course favours:
Ryan Fox (2025): “ It’s obviously a golf course you can make a lot of birdies on. It’s going to require two more good scores on the weekend, so I’ve played it pretty aggressively so far for the first two days. Sort of no change there. Hit driver off the majority of tees and try to give yourself some short shots in. If you hit your wedges good, you can definitely make some birdies, and I’ve done that the first couple days pretty well.
I generally like hard golf courses, but I will say, after playing Memorial last week, it was kind of nice to come here and see you’ve got a little bit of space. You still get penalized for bad shots, but if you’re a yard in the rough, you still feel like you’ve got a chance this week. I think the rain definitely impacted the scoring a lot. I thought, when we played Tuesday and Wednesday in the Pro-Am, it was starting to get firmer fast, and you had to think about it a little bit more. If you were in the rough, it was hard to get the ball close. It was hard to hit a few of the fairways with how firm the fairways are. Obviously with the rain softening it up, it became a little bit of target golf.”
Taylor Pendrith (2025): “Yeah, I think they’ve added a lot of length to the course. Where some of the holes, like 9, for example, used to be a 3-iron and a wedge up the hill, now you’ve got to hit driver, and if you can fly the bunker you might have a wedge if it’s downwind. But it’s a totally different hole now.
15 is another good one where you used to drive the green or just short of the green, and now you’ve got to hit it pretty solid to the corner and keep it short of those bunkers and you still have a wedge in, but it’s not a drivable hole anymore. So there’s a few changes. I don’t know exactly how much yardage they’ve added, but it’s a great track. It’s really fun to play, and I think with the renovations, it’s made it definitely more difficult, adding the bunkers that seem to be perfectly placed in the fairways with the prevailing wind.
Yeah, I think when the fairways are soft, it just makes them wider. Here there’s a few holes, quite a few holes actually, that the fairways are sloped left to right. I thought I hit a couple good drives today that just kind of kicked right and kicked forward and kind of rolled a foot into the rough. You’ve got to really tighten up the through lines and make sure you keep it short of the through bunker or just plan for some release in the fairways. It makes it more exciting. I enjoy when it is soft because it makes the fairways bigger and I can carry the ball pretty far, so that is an advantage for me. But it makes it more exciting when it’s firm, I think, and you can hit some big drives and get some shorter clubs in your hands when it is firm. It seems to be firming up.
Rory McIlroy (2025): “Yeah, I don’t know if you can call any course a typical TPC setup but that’s kind of what it’s like. A little bit of room off the tee, the fairways are quite generous, but if you miss them, the rough is pretty penal. The greens are tricky, undulating, really got to hit it into the right sections. I think it could be a good test by the end of the week if there’s no rain and it firms up a little bit and they can tuck the pins away. I think there’s certainly going to be some birdies, but it’s a long course for a par-70. There’s some chances out there, but for the most part, it’s going to be a decent test.”
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
- 2025 – Del Solar/Olesen – Both PM -9/61 – 400/1 & 66/1.
- 2024 – Skinns – PM -8/62 – 200/1.
- 2023 – Conners/Hadley/Lower/Rai – ALL AM -5/67 – 33/1 200/1 150/1 80/1.
- 2022 – Clark – AM -7/63 – 125/1.
- 2019 – Bradley – AM -7/63 – 60/1.
- 2018 – Garrigus – AM -9/63 – 200/1.
- 2017 – Chappell/Every/Hagy/Schniederjans/Swafford – 1AM/4PM -7/65 – 50/1 250/1 125/1 80/1 100/1.
- 2016 – D Johnson/List – AM/PM Split -6/66.
- 2015 – Grillo – AM -8/64.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 4 – Max Homa, Collin Morikawa.
- 2 – Justin Rose.
- 2 – Cameron Davis, Brooks Koepka, Nick Taylor.
- 1 – Wyndham Clark, Nick Dunlap, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ryan Fox, Tom Hoge, Billy Horschel, Viktor Hovland, Patton Kizzire, Shane Lowry, Robert MacIntyre, Aldrich Potgieter, Andrew Putnam, Sahith Theegala, Erik van Rooyen.
The RBC Canadian Open tends to visit similar golf courses. Tree-lined, normally classical in nature and not overly long. Bentgrass greened or a mix of Bentgrass with Poa Annua. TPC Toronto is a small step away from the norm, medium in length, verging on long, wide fairways saw 2025 turn into a bombers golf course.
Winners vary massively. Brandt Snedeker in 2013 (14/1), Jason Day in 2015 (9/1F), Dustin Johnson in 2018 (7/1F), Rory McIlroy in 2019 (10/1) and McIlroy again in 2022 (10/1) have all been favourites or in the top 3 in the betting market.
If a super-elite doesn’t win, then we need to look far deeper down the betting market. 50/1 Scott Piercy (we were on-board) at Hamilton in 2012 was the shortest odds-wise, with in odds order Tim Clark (2012) 66/1, Nick Taylor (2023) 66/1, Carl Pettersson (2010) 80/1, Ryan Fox (80/1), Sean O’Hair (2011) 100/1, Robert MacIntyre 2024 (100/1), Jhonattan Vegas (2016) 125/1 and Jhonattan Vegas (2017) at 125/1 making up the other winners since 2010.
