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Congratulations if you were on-board Rory McIlroy at Monday best prices of 12/1. Friendless in the betting market, McIlroy teed off on Thursday as big as 19.5 on Betfair Exchange. He showed his true class though to defend the Green Jacket for only the fourth time in history, joining Jack Nicklaus (1965–66), Nick Faldo (1989–90) and Tiger Woods (2001–02).
The vast majority of the Masters field have taken the relatively short journey down to the South Carolina coast for this week’s RBC Heritage at the stunning Harbour Town Golf Links. Royal Bank of Canada’s sponsorship (RBC) plus Signature Event status has attracted a great field the week after The Masters – less Hideki Matsuyama and Rory McIlroy. We should be in for another interesting renewal on a tight course where strategic thinking is key.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the RBC Heritage, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,600 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for the RBC Heritage at bet365 News.
Course Guide: Harbour Town Golf Links is no typical coastal course, instead I categorise it as a Carolina track – i.e. sharing features with Quail Hollow, Sedgefield and Pinehurst No.2. It also has extremely close form associations with Copperhead at Innisbrook Resort in Florida, which plays far more as a Carolina-type course. Carolina courses are traditionally tree-lined, feature doglegs and narrow sight lines from the tee.
Harbour Town itself is a Pete Dye design that also features tiny dome-shaped Bermuda TifEagle Poa Trivialis greens (putting surfaces were re-laid for the 2016 renewal) that are incredibly difficult to hit in regulation. Being on the right side of the fairway or further afield to minimise approach shots being blocked by trees is important and it’s very much a golf course where ball-striking and creative shot-shaping are required to get close to tricky pin positions.
Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head, South Carolina: Designer: Pete Dye with 2000 re-design, 2024/25 Davis Love III and Love Golf Design restoration; Course Type: Carolina, Mid-Score, Short; Par: 71; Length: 7,243 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 18; Number of Sand Bunkers: 54; Acres of Fairway: 22; Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass; Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass 1.5″; Greens: 3,700 sq.ft average TifEagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimp: 11-11.5 ft.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Harbour Town Golf Links and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Pete Dye designs include:
Course Overview: Harbour Town Golf Links is a specialised test that appeals to players who thrive on Bermudagrass putting surfaces and who have a short game to cope with the inevitable missed greens. Undoubtedly a shot-makers course, avoiding live oaks, pine trees and strategically placed bunkers is more important than fairways hit. Green complexes which average only 3,700 sq.ft. are typically dome-shaped (a Dye design trait) and that’s a critical point this week because even the very best ball strikers will miss around 15 or more greens over the week, so sound scrambling is essential. Harbour Town Golf Links pretty much plays as tough as the wind conditions dictate – benign and soft course conditions in the past have seen plotters reach scores of -19/265 to -22/262. If it’s firm and windy, sub -10/274 can suffice.
2022 saw a freshly extended Harbour Town Golf Links with the 2 par-5s on the front side of the course being lengthened to 550 yards (2nd) and 569 yards (5th). Last year saw a further 22 yards added to the par-3 7th, taking that up to 217 yards. 2026 sees 30 yards more added across the par-4 1st (now 422 yards), par-4 6th (now 431 yards), and the closing par-4 18th (478 yards). All-in-all though, a 7,243 yard Par 71, in this day and age, is short.
With fresh TifEagle Bermudagrass putting surfaces laid for 2016, in April they feature Poa Trivialis overseed. Primarily though the same skills-sets are key year-to-year: power hitters who have little regard for strategy are at a distinct disadvantage and Greens in Regulation numbers here are always in the top 10 toughest on the PGA Tour, even when the wind doesn’t blow as per 2015. That’s hardly surprising as the Dye design features green complexes which are the smallest on Tour.
At a test where hitting 70% greens in regulation is a tough task, the ability to scramble across the greens missed is absolutely essential – those who struggle to get up and down simply haemorrhage too many bogeys. For reference look at the Key Skill sets analysis further into this preview. The TifEagle Bermudagrass Poa Trivialis greens are also tricky for putts from 10-15 feet and 20-25 feet, making another key requirement the ability to hit the ball close on approaches. The course though rewards all-round ability. Look for those who can take advantage of scoreable conditions across both the par-4s and the par-5s. Players have plenty of opportunities around Harbour Town with wedge in hand.
RBC Heritage Winners: 2025: Justin Thomas (-17); 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-19); 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17); 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13); 2021: Stewart Cink (-19); 2020: Webb Simpson (-22); 2019: C.T. Pan (-12); 2018: Satoshi Kodaira (-12); 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13); 2016: Branden Grace (-9); 2015: Jim Furyk (-18); 2014: Matt Kuchar (-11); 2013: Graeme McDowell (-9); 2012: Carl Pettersson (-14); 2011: Brandt Snedeker (-12); 2010: Jim Furyk (-13).
OWGR of RBC Heritage Signature Event Winners: 2026: Thomas 2025: 8; Scheffler 1; 2024: Fitzpatrick 16.
Datagolf Ranking RBC Heritage Signature Event Winners: 2026: Thomas 6; 2025: Scheffler 1; 2024: Fitzpatrick 16.
Lead Score Progression:
Path to Victory: Below are end of round positions for RBC Heritage winners:
Shots From the Lead: Below are RBC Heritage winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
Incoming Form of RBC Heritage winners since 2010:
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Scottie Scheffler, 2) Matt Fitzpatrick; 3) Xander Schauffele; 4) Ludvig Aberg; 5) Cameron Young; 6) Tommy Fleetwood; 7) Si Woo Kim; 8) Patrick Cantlay; 9) Russell Henley; 10) Collin Morikawa.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
RBC Heritage Winners & Prices: 2025: Thomas 18/1; 2024: Scheffler 9/2F; 2023: Fitzpatrick 28/1; Average: 17/1.
Historical Weather:
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Hilton Head, South Carolina is here.
Compared to last week at Augusta, it’s pretty similar. Warmer than last year, 22-27 degrees Celsius (72-81 Fahrenheit), there looks to be pretty much 0% chance of precipitation. Coastally located winds could gust up to 20mph from the south across Thursday and weekend afternoons. There’s been little rain in the build-up here in South Carolina, so organisers could get the greens firm if they choose to.
Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Genesis Invitational / Magical Kenya Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Harbour Town click here.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of RBC Heritage winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this Carolina-style golf test:
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of RBC Heritage winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this Carolina-style golf test:
Tournament Skill Averages:
Let’s take a view from players as to how Harbour Town Golf Links sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Justin Thomas (2025): “I just played really solid. I feel like I didn’t do anything crazy. I just drove the ball well, which is very, very important out here, and I felt like it was just one of those days I put the ball in a spot that I had a lot of good numbers. I had a lot of kind of full wedges to where, although you have to be a little conservative at times out here, I felt like they were kind of pins and angles and everything that I could be a little aggressive and just kind of got rolling with it.
Yeah, the golf course felt completely different. It’s definitely firming up. We even noticed it just kind of on some chips, the pitch shots, like some wedges, the balls. Shots that I felt like I hit very nicely, and it just doesn’t — it’s not spinning as much. They’re getting crusty, and it’s fun. This place is so cool, I think, to play when it’s like this. It just puts such an emphasis on precision. I need to drive it a little bit better than I did today to be able to put it in better spots. Yeah, it was a great grind to shoot a couple under today.
I don’t think I’ve necessarily had as much success here, as if you want to call them birdie fests or whatever it may be. I still view this place that it can be like that. I understand yesterday is a bit of a one-off, but I truly do feel like every time I tee it up at a place like this or Colonial, when I’ve played it, I can make a bunch of birdies. Sawgrass, I feel the same way. If you get it in play, you can make so many birdies. It’s just, if you get it out of position off the tee, it’s extremely difficult. This place is even more so than those other spots. I just think you have a lot of shots. You’re not just grabbing a club off the tee and just hitting it. It requires way more thought and precision than that, I’d say.”
Scottie Scheffler (2024): “Yeah, it’s very different. I think sometimes when you’re coming from Augusta — we were talking about it today, is it 14 that’s the long par-3 with the water? The green just looked so small. I’m sitting there with a 6-iron looking at this small green, and Augusta everything is really big at times and then you come here and everything is really, really small it seems like.
I think for some people, distance debate type people if they’re ever looking at golf course design and how to combat people only trying to hit the ball really far, they need to come here and do a case study on this golf course because it’s really, really good. You’ve got to curve the ball both directions, and you have to control your distance. You have to control where the golf ball is going. It’s not just a place where you can go bomb it.
It was really soft out there. Got a couple balls with some mud on them. Just little stuff that kind of happens throughout the tournament that I wasn’t used to, going from — I’m used to a bit more prep work if that makes sense. On the greens I felt like I maybe was just over-reading some of my putts, seeing too much break coming from greens like last week where they’re so fast and there’s so much break. It’s a little bit unusual coming to a golf course like this where it’s a different type of grass and they’re much flatter and then you’ve got to play grain. I didn’t get my normal amount of work in that I typically would on the greens.
10 was the mud ball hole. That’s a hard tee ball for me. I hit a great tee shot right up the middle of the fairway. Especially after missing a short birdie look there on 10, and then I get up there and there’s mud on my ball, and it’s like, this is annoying. The areas out here are so small to hit into, and it felt like I hit a pretty good shot and it’s drifting left, and you can’t really miss left there, and instead of landing in the bunker, it lands on the slope and the slope shoots it 30 feet into the bunker instead of being right there on the edge where I could maybe get it up-and-down. I was obviously frustrated with that type of break, and then to get up there and knock the putt in was a nice feeling. Used it as some good momentum for the closing stretch.
Well, I think I like that you don’t have to bomb it around this place. There’s more than one way to get around the golf course. There’s some holes where distance can be an advantage, and there’s plenty of holes where you’ve got to place the ball and move it around the trees. I’m a big fan of trees on golf courses, so getting to play a place like this where there’s a lot of trees is nice, especially when you’re not hitting it in the trees.”
Matt Fitzpatrick (2023): “That’s the funny thing. I wouldn’t say it fits my game. I haven’t really had that much success here. I’ve had 14th and a 4th. I had a 14th in the COVID year, but it played very different that year. So kind of get rid of that. And I’ve had a bunch of missed cuts .I just like the design of the golf course. I like the area. I think it’s a really tough test. I think it’s a really fair test. If you hit the ball well tee to green, you get rewarded. That’s why I like the golf course. Even though I’ve not had my best results around here, it’s high on my list to come and play every year.
It’s tough. It’s tough. I think one minute you feel like it’s into the wind, one minute you feel like it’s down. It’s difficult to pull a club. So there’s a lot of holes like that out here, and you’ve got to stay switched on.
Yeah, I hit driver a lot. I think I probably play this golf course a little bit more aggressive than others. I don’t know if that’s just me personally or maybe going off my statistics. There is a lot of holes where you can get blocked out by going too far, so you have to think about that.
I just felt as long as I could hang on — not hang on, but as long as I was within two shots going into the back nine, I was easily in with a shout. I know I can play the back nine well. It’s a hard golf course, there’s no doubt about that. You’ve got to hit good golf shots at the right times, and fortunately for me, made a great putt on 15, great shot on 16, again, good shot on 17 and good shot on 18 and just managed to get in the playoff and go from there.”
Jordan Spieth (2022): “Yeah, we knew it was going to be really challenging just hitting balls, you know whatever it was, 20-mile-an-hour winds gusting, maybe a little higher at times. And it’s just really tricky around this place because sometimes down around the trees you either don’t feel anything or you feel the opposite. So you certainly want to be comfortable before hitting each shot. I felt like I drove the ball extremely well. Driving the ball really well around this place, and I played aggressively too, so I had a lot of wedges, which if you’re a little off there, it’s obviously a lot better than hitting more club in.“
“Wind direction had kind of just made a turn during our round, so trying to figure out when that happened because the difference when it’s blowing this hard of a little down or a little into could be two clubs. They’re not very big greens here, not very big areas to hit it. So that was really the challenge. It’s actually kind of nice when you know for sure it’s going one direction than when it’s all over the place. Just try to keep it low, keep it in the beacons off the tee, and from there you get some wedge opportunities. So very pleased with the round.”
Stewart Cink (2021): “The course hasn’t really changed that much. It’s been through a couple renovations, added a few tees here and there. It’s the same course for the most part. There is very little difference out there. It’s just a great course. The kind of course that stays the test of time because it’s not, it has some innate defence against distance out there. It’s hard to say what that is, but we’re all hitting the ball a lot farther than we used to, but this course plays about the same. It’s a fun course to play. It’s quite different.
It’s a little bit odd here. The ball, you don’t get the full distance. You have to make adjustments, playing for some change and your yardages, and that’s something we adjust to pretty well. Reagan is doing a great job here already. Doesn’t take long but you have to pay attention to it. So I’m comfortable with that kind of stuff here, wind direction, some the trees, the corridors where the wind funnels and sometimes blows across the top. You get used to what southwest wind does here or northeast wind on all these holes.
I think it’s just the way this course plays out generally on the weekends when it’s dry. It’s generally much more difficult later in the day because the greens are firmer, the grass is just not really, there’s not as much hold in the grass, and the early rounds are really scoreable. That’s just the way it’s been here for years, and if you’re near the lead in this tournament on Saturday and Sunday, you’ve got to be prepared for that. I did it myself, came from ten back, I think, or nine back one year. I’ve been there, and I know what it’s like to be on the early wave. But tomorrow I’m going to be late, so I’ve got to prepare and just keep being really solid.”
Webb Simpson (2020): “I think you have to really shape it off the tee. You’ve got to think, you know, any hole could be two or three clubs off the tee that makes sense. So I love that. I love small greens. I love small targets. Paul said that I’m the worst driver of the ball with a really open fairway and one of the best with a really tight fairway. So I think, when it’s really wide, I’m not thinking or focusing. And also just being, I think, at the beach. I’ve always seemed to play well here and RSM, just being near the ocean. I grew up playing golf at the beach in Wilmington. So it just feels nice to be close to the beach. Yeah, I’ve had some of my best finishes these weeks.
I came in here Tuesday not knowing what to expect, and I realized they were softer than April. Honestly, with no overseed, the grain’s more exposed, so we can read them better, I think, and be more confident. The grain’s pretty strong here. So far, the grain really hasn’t failed us. It’s done what the grain said each time. So having a guy like Paul who grew up in Florida and knows Bermuda greens well, it gives me confidence as a player.
It’s very satisfying knowing like I’m not near as long as some of these guys and I’m able to kind of use my skills of distance control and shot shape to kind of pick me back up when I’m 40 yards or 30 yards behind these guys. A good example is you look at WGC Mexico, where I’ve played very poorly there, is that at that altitude, you take away my distance control strength because it’s more of a guess there. My distance control there has been terrible for three years. You put me anywhere else besides a place with altitude, and that my distance control and shot shape allows me to play well and stay up with these guys.”
C.T. Pan (2019): “Those four holes just, first hole is always tough, the first tee shots. You know you’re in contention. And it’s always hard to having good start is very important to win this tournaments. Last night I look at the hole locations and they were kind of tough. No. 1 is front right, downwind. It’s hard to stop the ball. No. 2 is all the way back right and that’s hard to make a birdie. If you hit a good driver there’s a chance. No. 3 is a long hole. And No. 4 is greens, island green, secured by water. I made a double there yesterday so I did not have a good memory there. And that’s why I told myself just play your best, shoot even par or under and then of course it will get eventually easier and No. 5 is a par 5, which I did well, made birdie there. And No. 9, No. 10 and No. 12.
This course, obviously I’m not a long hitter, so it’s all about decision. Decision with the ball is very important out here. And I hit a lot of fairways, which works well. And I work on the low driver, as well. I did a lot of preparation for this week to get myself ready.”
Wesley Bryan (2017): “I mean this is one of the best golf courses that we’re going to play all year. A lot of the guys rave about it because you have to work the ball both ways off the tee. You have to work the ball both ways going into the green. You have to miss it in the right spots around the green to have a chance. And it just one of the only courses on Tour where you’ll see that you have to play every single shot in your bag. And I love it. I’m not a super technical guy, so the guy that kind of imagines shots going both ways. I work the ball probably a little more than the average guy out here. This is a course when I looked at the schedule starting off that this is one of the places I thought that I had the best chance to contend at. And I guess after all the dust settled my intuition was correct.”
Branden Grace (2016): “I like this place. It’s completely different. It’s short and fiddly. Obviously the winds do defend here. And there’s a couple of shots that I’ve got up my sleeve, that I like hitting, that I grew up hitting and I think it goes well with this place. It’s one of those golf courses that suits my eye. I grew up playing in the wind and I grew up playing fiddly courses like this. I would think this is a bit more of a ball-striker’s golf course. It doesn’t matter if you miss a couple of fairways, a couple of greens, you can get your way around it. I just like coming back to this place. I have spoken to Ernie in the past about this event. And he thought it’s one that’s really going to suit my eye. It reminds me a little bit of Fancourt Links back home, because it’s linksy. You really have to see your thoughts. You have to hit a couple of different shots, not shots that you hit often.”
Matt Kuchar: “It’s so unique, uniquely different, with the tree lined fairways, with the ability to basically recall and remember every hole. Every hole stands out. Even though you have a lot of holes that have similar characteristics of just tight on the left side, tight on the right side with trees, they have slight doglegs that make it exciting to play, make it exciting to try to truly play chess around this golf course, and positioning your tee shot in the right spot in the fairway. If it’s not, you get to play all sorts of fun recovery shots. If you’re off line, it’s not that your ball is necessarily in a hazard and you’re playing a drop. You find it and have a recovery shot, and you have a play. All the greens are made so that you do have a play. They’re basically on the same level as the fairway. They’re not perched up with bunkers everywhere, where you’re just trying to leave yourself a bunker shot. You can actually run them all up on the greens. They’re small greens. If you’re on the green, you have a shot at birdie. It’s a great layout, a great design, a memorable golf course. And I don’t think it necessarily rewards a typical type of player. It’s not a short hitter that always wins. You take Davis Love, who’s won here more than anybody, and he, in his prime, would have been longer than the longest guy we’ve got today. He could hit it further than anybody. So you have guys like Davis, that can overpower courses, that play well here. And then you’ve got guys like myself, Luke Donald, Graeme McDowell, Jim Furyk, as kind of not your power players, that can also play well here.”
Graeme McDowell: “You just have to stay really patient. You have to position the ball well at times. You have to be really aware of the wind on this golf course. It’s tough to pick them out on the back nine today. There’s some really tough shots on this golf course. And you’ve just got to pick your targets and flight the ball as well as you can. Some good memories and some good visuals for me on this golf course, and it was nice to plug back into some of those and make a few birdies.”
Jason Day: “It’s an amazing golf course. It really is. It’s one of the pretty much old school golf courses we get to play on the PGA Tour. Most courses become more modern, where they’re getting really long. And they’re getting difficult by length. This course shows that you don’t really need length to make a golf course difficult. For me, personally, there’s a lot of irons, long irons off the tees and a lot of 4 woods. I don’t believe, obviously with weather, how the weather goes this week will depend on if I’m going to pull the driver out a lot. But just thinking about it, there’s only maybe four or five drivers out there. Most of them are pretty much 4 woods and long irons. So it’s difficult. You’ve got to shape your shots both ways. And the greens are so small, you have to be really sharp with your irons to hit the greens.”
Jim Furyk: “I think it’s all about working the golf ball. There’s a lot of strategy involved. But you have to be able to control the golf ball. You have to hit high shots, low shots, curve it right to left, left to right. If you don’t have control of the golf ball you’re going to struggle at this golf course. You’re not going to skank it around for very long, and eventually you’re going to be in trouble. It’s about hitting fairways, but a lot of times it’s about hitting the proper side of the fairway, and that may depend on day to day, with the pin placements. Nine is a good example and 11 is a good example. If you don’t hit the right side of the fairway, you have to carve a shot around trees and hit it low or hit it high or hit it around branches. It’s actually a very fun golf course to play.”
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
Harbour Town is undoubtedly a course where patience, experience and guile is rewarded. Played traditionally the week after Augusta (apart from 2011 when TPC San Antonio was played the week in between, and Post-Covid-19 Resumption in 2020), it won’t surprise you that the majority of recent champions played down the road in Georgia at The Masters prior to triumphing here, namely Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, Stewart Cink, Satoshi Kodaira, Branden Grace, Jim Furyk (twice), Matt Kuchar, Graeme McDowell, Brandt Snedeker (he’d also finished 4th the week before at TPC San Antonio) and Boo Weekley who successfully defended.
Four exceptions to that trend – it seems increasingly unlikely at these Signature event Heritages – come in the form of Brian Gay (2009), Carl Pettersson (2012), Wesley Bryan (2016) and C.T. Pan (2019). Gay and Pettersson were experienced professionals who both have a good record on tight Par 70s. Wesley Bryan was both a Tour and tournament rookie who many, despite a great start on the PGA Tour, discarded due to his lack of course experience. 2019 saw C.T. Pan victorious after landing nothing better than a 42nd place in his 9 prior appearances that year.
Harbour Town shares TifEagle Bermudagrass – they are overseeded with Poa Trivialis in April – green complexes with Copperhead, home of the Valspar Championship, and mentioned before, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook shares Carolina course overtures in its setup. Here’s a trend. 12 of the 17 winners here from 2009 onwards had all finished in the top 10 around Copperhead prior to winning here and Branden Grace went on to finish in the top 10 at the Valspar post his victory here in 2017. Broadening the TifEagle link out slightly, excellent performances on other TifEagle-type greens featured at Kapalua, Bay Hill (from 2016 onwards) and TPC Sawgrass – overseeded with Poa Trivialis from 2017 onwards – link in perfectly as well.
Again extrapolating the TifEagle Bermudagrass angle and looking at the Plantation Course at Kapalua specifically, across the winners here from 2010 through 2015, plus Webb Simpson (2020), Stewart Cink (2021), Jordan Spieth (2022), Matt Fitzpatrick (2023), Scottie Scheffler (2024) and Thomas from last year, all had top 7 finishes on the TifEagle greens on Maui. That link to TifEagle Bermudagrass performances shouldn’t be overlooked be that on the PGA Tour or the Gulf Swing on the DP World Tour.
2019 saw the very out of sorts C.T. Pan take his maiden PGA Tour victory here. He did not follow this TifEagle pattern, but had PGA Tour Bermudagrass links. 6th on the Seaside Course at the 2016 RSM Classic highlights a player comfortable by the coast, and he had also gone very close at the 2018 Wyndham Championship played on the Champion Bermudagrass greens at Sedgefield Country Club, finishing runner-up to 2011 Harbour Town victor Brandt Snedeker.
Scottie Scheffler 7pts Enhanced Win Only 4/1 with bet365
Scottie Scheffler was back, hungry and firing at Augusta National last week. 8th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, it was the approach play and distance control that was back, ranking 3rd for Strokes Gained on Approach. His full Strokes Gained Tee to Green statistic of 12.64 was 0.67 better than Justin Rose who was second in the category and 0.76 better than Masters winner Rory McIlroy, who was third from Tee to Green. Ominous.
8 of Scheffler’s 20 PGA Tour victories have come on these Poa Trivialis overseed type greens and a couple more have come on the TifEagle Bermudagrass greens at Bay Hill, so as I have highlighted for quite a period of time, this agronomy is where Scottie plays his best golf. He’s also ranking 12th in this field for Putting across my 8-week Strokes Gained tracker. Ominous again.
Winless since January and with plenty of pent up frustration – that’s a 6 tournament winless streak, the likes of which we haven’t seen since his slow start to 2025 post “Ravioli Gate”, I can see Scottie winning his sixth Signature event level tournament this week. You won’t be surprised to read he’s won the most of these since their inception at the start of 2024.
Scottie tops my Predictor Model this week and the Harbour Town Strokes Gained Analysis for players who have multiple starts here at the RBC Heritage, gaining 2.21 Strokes per Round.
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Ludvig Aberg 2.5pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
You have to also love Ludvig Aberg and his chances this week. The big Swede has undoubtedly hit form in 2026 after illness blighted early outings. 3rd at Bay Hill, 5th at TPC Sawgrass, 5th at TPC San Antonio and 21st last week at Augusta, Aberg should have won The Players Championship and he must be smarting that he hasn’t, as yet, added to his 2 wins on the PGA Tour. The last of which was some 14 months ago.
7th for Greens in Regulation and 6th for Ball Striking last week at Augusta National, Aberg was 6th for Strokes Gained on Approach, 13th for Tee to Green, but for the first time on his Masters ventures, had a stone cold putter on the Bentgrass greens.
A Ponte Vedra Beach resident, Aberg uses TPC Sawgrass as his practice facility playing both Pete Dye’s Stadium Course and Dye Valley courses regularly. 10th here on course debut in 2024 – he shot 66-66-68 across Thursday, Friday and Saturday – Ludvig looks primed for his second Signature event level title of his young career.
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Matt Wallace 1pt EW 110/1 (10EW, 1/5) with bet365
Matt Wallace sprung from relative obscurity at the Valero Texas Open. A T2 finish at TPC San Antonio ultimately saw the Englishman fail to grab the final spot available for The Masters, but he did gain entry into his first PGA Tour Signature event. That in itself could be a springboard for the Sunningdale-based 36 year-old, with huge FedEx Cup and Official World Golf Rankings points available across this week’s short field in South Carolina. A decent week could see him jump into the OWGR top 50, landing PGA Championship and U.S. Open opportunities.
The fact he arrives with momentum is an obvious one, but remember he shot -12/132 across the weekend at the Valero Texas Open. That was the best of anybody in the field and a shot better than victor J.J. Spaun. He ranked 2nd for Approach and 5th for Tee to Green, with green numbers across all skill-sets.
Plus Harbour Town should suit. At a venue where 70% of Greens in Regulation is traditionally top 10 worthy, Wallace – who has a great chipping and streaky putting game – should have a live chance. So that makes his 2021 RBC Heritage appearance interesting to me – he’s played here 4 times pre-Signature event status. Thursday and Saturday rounds of -6/65 saw Wallace in the second from last group with Emiliano Grillo, before a +2/73 saw him finish T18.
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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 13:35BST 13.4.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.