After 45 events, we finally reach the last PGA Tour tournament of 2022. This will be my last preview of the year, so thanks to all you readers, listeners of the podcast and watchers of our YouTube content across 2022 – it’s been great to have had you on board, and we will be back for the Tournament of Champions in the New Year.
We move to the Atlantic coast in Georgia for the RSM Classic. Formerly The McGladrey Classic, the RSM within player circles is known as the Island Swing Major and is popular with lots of the golfing community who reside (or have a practice base) here on Sea Island or on the adjoining St Simon’s Island – after all, it’s always handy to have a full PGA Tour tournament worth an increased $8,100,000 on your doorstep. So names like Jonathan Byrd, Harris English, Will Gordon, Ben Griffin, Brian Harman, Garrick Higgo, Zach Johnson, Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, Trey Mullinax, Andrew Novak, J.T. Poston, Greyson Sigg, Michael Thompson and tournament host Davis Love III will be spending a well-deserved tournament week in their own beds. 2018 winner Charles Howell III was also a former SeaIsland house owner.
It’s worth noting, however, that the local knowledge doesn’t stop there as Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner, Seamus Power and Nick Watney all regularly use the SeaIslandGolfPerformanceCenter. Knowledge of SeaIsland resort also stretches to a large number of players who studied and played college golf in Southeastern Conference (SEC) universities. 2022 also sees the field benefit hugely from the likes of Jason Day, Justin Rose and Webb Simpson boosting the field.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the RSM Classic, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: 2015 saw the RSM Classic extend to a 156 player field and a 2 course format. The Plantation Course sits next door to host venue the Seaside Course on St Simon’s Island. 18 holes of action across Thursday and Friday are split across the 2 courses with the Seaside Course hosting the final 36.
The Seaside Course is, as you would expect, a links-type test. Seaside is an original Harry Colt design which in 1998 had a Tom Fazio re-design where the original ‘Marshside’ and ‘Seaside’ sets of 9 later were merged. It’s a true rarity – an American links-style course with man-made sand dunes, ridges and elevation fluctuations. The course is a short, 7,005 yard, Par 70 featuring Bermudagrass fairways and rough (average 2″) as well as pretty grainy TifEagle Bermudagrass greens that will run at close to 12.5 on the Stimpmeter.
Sea Island Resort, Seaside Course, St Simon’s Island, Georgia: Designer: Colt & Allison, 1928, Fazio re-design, 1998; Course Type: Coastal, Resort; Par: 70; Length: 7,005 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 13; Fairways Tifway Bermudagrass with Platinum Paspalum; Rough: Tifway Bermudagrass, 2″; Greens: 7,200 sq.ft TifEagle Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 12.5ft. Course Scoring Average 2012: 69.28 (-0.72), Difficulty Rank 36 of 49 courses. 2013: 70.26 (+0.26), Difficulty Rank 21 of 43 courses. 2014: 69.42 (-0.58), Difficulty Rank 28 of 52. 2015: 69.31 (-0.69), Difficulty Rank 29 of 50. 2016: 68.89 (-1.11), Difficulty Rank 35 of 50. 2017: 69.24 (-0.76), Difficulty Rank of 35 of 51. 2018: 68.84 (-1.16), Difficulty Rank 33 of 49 courses. 2019: 68.90 (-1.10), Difficulty Rank of 25 of 41. 2020: 68.69 (-1.31), Difficulty Rank 40 of 51 courses. 2021: 68.97 (-1.03), Difficulty Rank 33 of 50.
Sea Island Resort, Plantation Course, St Simon’s Island, Georgia: Designer: Walter Travis, 1926, Rees Jones renovation, 1998, Davis Love III renovation 2019; Course Type: Coastal, Classical; Par: 72; Length; 7,060 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 10; Fairways Platinum Paspalum; Rough: TifTuf Bermudagrass, 1.5″; Greens: 6,100 sq.ft TifEagle Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 11ft – 11.5ft. Course Scoring Average 2015: 70.81 (-1.19), Difficulty Rank 42 of 50 courses. 2016: 69.76 (-2.34), Difficulty Rank of 48 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.54 (-1.46), Difficulty Rank 43 of 51 courses. 2018: 70.45 (-1.55), Difficulty Rank 37 of 49 courses. 2019: 70.44 (-1.56), Difficulty Rank of 34 of 41. 2020: 71.34 (-0.66), Difficulty Rank 25 of 51 courses. 2021: 70.69 (-1.31), Difficulty Rank 36 of 50.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Harry Colt designs include:
Hamilton G&CC – 2012 + 2018 – RBC Canadian Open
Royal Lytham, Muirfield and Hoylake – 2012-14 Open Championship
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Tom Fazio designs include:
Atunyote GC – Turning Stone Championship 2007-10.
Caves Valley GC – BMW Championship 2021.
Congaree GC – Palmetto Championship 2021 + CJ Cup 2022.
Conway Farms GC – BMW Championship 2013, 2015, 2017.
Corales GC – Corales Championship.
Eagle Point – Wells Fargo Championship 2017.
Raptor Course Greyhawk GC – Fry’s.com Open 2008/09.
TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:28; 325:24; 350:27.
Course Overview: The host Seaside Course is a links-style test, but don’t be fooled – you’d expect a technical challenge, but effectively the main defence of the course, which is barely 7,000 yards in length, is the weather from the Atlantic. Wide fairways and green complexes that average 7200 sq.ft. make the Seaside Course extremely susceptible to birdie-making for those that can putt well on TifEagle Bermudagrass putting surfaces. The greens themselves are quite a challenge as any putt within 10 feet is testing and difficult to read – especially for those that don’t get on with grainy Bermuda carpet.
The players also get 18 holes on the Plantation Course. Freshly renovated by tournament host Davis Love III, this is more of a parkland course by the sea. Fairways are tree-lined and the course certainly has a classical Carolina feel to it, with players mentioning links to Harbour Town Golf Links. However tidal creeks and lakes are in play across the majority of holes so mistakes prove costly. Plantation boasts expansive fairways and, at 7,060 yards, this Par 72 – which features three reachable par-5s – can (wind allowing) undoubtedly offer up more birdies than Seaside, despite players mentioning that the new Love III-inspired green complexes are more difficult, with distinct quadrants and multi-tier layers. It ranked the 7th and 15th easiest courses on Tour across 2019 and 2021 respectively, although that jumped significantly in 2020 with tougher winds on Thursday/Friday.
The key to the RSM is pounding greens in regulation and strong Bermudagrass putting. The TifEagle Bermudagrass greens are not to every player’s liking and conversion of putts from anything outside of 10 feet is tough. That level of difficulty, when the wind allows, is not shared with Plantation, so low scoring is a must there to contend, especially as it is an incredibly short Par 72 by modern-day standards.
RSM Classic Winners: 2021: Talor Gooch (-22); 2020: Robert Streb (-19), 2019: Tyler Duncan (-19); 2018: Charles Howell III (-19); 2017: Austin Cook (-21); 2016: Mackenzie Hughes (-17); 2015: Kevin Kisner (-22); 2014: Robert Streb (-14); 2013: Chris Kirk (-14); 2012: Tommy Gainey (-16); 2011: Ben Crane (-16); 2010: Heath Slocum (-14).
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combi Stats | SG Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Tom Hoge, Brian Harman, Webb Simpson, Jason Day, Brian Gay, Patrick Rodgers, Andrew Putnam, Chesson Hadley, William Gordon & Ben Griffin.
RSM Classic Winners & Prices: 2021: Gooch 40/1; 2020: Streb 350/1; 2019: Duncan 200/1; 2018: Howell III 50/1; 2017: Cook 90/1; 2016: Hughes 250/1; 2015: Kisner 22/1; 2014: Streb 75/1; 2013: Kirk 50/1; 2012: Gainey 200/1; 2011: Crane 66/1; 2010: Slocum 50/1. Past 9 Renewals Average: 125/1; Overall Average: 120/1. For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.
Historical Weather:
2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 75. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 67. Wind NE 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 67. Wind NE 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 69. Wind NE 7-14 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 69. Wind N 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind SSW 6-12 mph.
2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 68. Wind NE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 73. Wind NE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 74. Wind NE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 73. Wind NE 10-15 mph.
2019: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 67. Wind ENE 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 73. Wind SSE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 74. Wind S 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 62. Wind W 10-15 mph.
2018: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 58. Wind WNW 10 mph. Friday: Sunny, breezy and cool. High of 59. Wind NW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 67. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 71. Wind ENE 5-10 mph.
2017: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 68. Wind NNE 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny and breezy with a high of 68. Wind ENE 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 72. Wind S 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny, breezy and cooler. High of 68. Wind NW 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph.
2016: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 74. Light, variable wind 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 74. Wind ESE 4-8 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 77. Wind WSW 10-20 mph. Sunday: Sunny and cold, with a high of 62. Wind WNW 7-14 mph. Monday: Sunny and cold, with morning temperatures in the lower 40s. Wind WSW 5-7 mph.
2015: Thursday: Cloudy, with bands of rain throughout the day. High of 85 degrees. Wind E 10-20 mph. Friday: Sunny and cool. High of 68 degrees. Wind NE 12-18 mph, gusting to 28 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 71 degrees. Wind ENE 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with light showers in the morning and a high of 60 degrees. Wind NNW 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Sea Island, Georgia is here.
It should be an interesting week at the RSM Classic. Temperatures look colder than 12 months ago with 14-16 degrees Celsius not the norm on the PGA Tour. For comparison, we saw similar low temperatures in 2018. 35mm of rain here last week will have been welcomed, so I’m expecting perfect turf conditions on courses that drain brilliantly anyway. Greens will be receptive, especially in low temperatures. As ever the real defence on coastal tracks is wind, so 3 calm days across Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be the green light for scoring. Thursday will see 10-15 mph north-westerly winds. Winning score-wise, I’m expecting sub -20 mark with such calm conditions.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Open de France, which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Taylor Pendrith; 2) Kevin Yu; 3) Davis Thompson; 4) Patrick Rodgers; 5) Keith Mitchell; 6) Trevor Cone; 7) Dean Burmester / Jason Day; 9) Brian Harman / Justin Rose; 11) Taylor Montgomery; 12) Joel Dahmen / Nick Hardy; 14) Cameron Champ; 15) Will Gordon / S.H. Kim; 17) Lee Hodges / Scott Stallings; 19) Callum Tarren; 20) Chris Gotterup / Tom Hoge; 22) Matt Kuchar; 23) Brent Grant / Greyson Sigg; 25) Luke List / Kevin Streelman.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Tom Hoge; 2) Matt Kuchar; 3) Joel Dahmen; 4) Nick Hardy; 5) Dylan Wu; 6) Jason Day; 7) Matthew NeSmith; 8) Davis Riley / Brian Stuard; 10) Ben Griffin; 11) Danny Lee; 12) Sam Ryder; 13) Brian Harman / Andrew Putnam; 15) Hank Lebioda; 16) Robby Shelton; 17) Justin Rose; 18) Webb Simpson; 19) Russell Knox / Michael Thompson; 21) Trey Mullinax; 22) Austin Cook; 23) Ben Martin; 24) Stewart Cink; 25) Ryan Moore / Kyle Westmoreland / Kevin Yu.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Stephan Jaeger; 2) Mackenzie Hughes; 3) Scott Piercy; 4) Erik Barnes; 5) Byeong Hun An; 6) Robby Shelton; 7) Joseph Bramlett; 8) Seamus Power; 9) Trevor Cone / Luke List; 11) Joel Dahmen; 12) Tyson Alexander / Dean Burmester; 14) Scott Stallings / Sahith Theegala; 16) Davis Riley; 17) Harris English / S.H. Kim; 19) Wyndham Clark / Paul Haley II; 21) Matt Kuchar / Brendon Todd; 23) Beau Hossler; 24) Ben Griffin / Peter Malnati / Andrew Putnam.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Joel Dahmen; 2) Nick Hardy; 3) Jason Day / Kevin Yu; 5) Matt Kuchar; 6) Tom Hoge; 7) Matthew NeSmith; 8) Brian Harman; 9) Ben Griffin; 10) Trevor Cone / Davis Riley; 12) Davis Thompson; 13) Keith Mitchell / Patrick Rodgers; 15) Mackenzie Hughes / Luke List / Scott Stallings; 18) Joseph Bramlett / Will Gordon; 20) Justin Rose; 21) Robby Shelton; 22) Erik Barnes; 23) David Lipsky / Francesco Molinari; 25) Byeong Hun An / Dean Burmester.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Brice Garnett / Justin Rose; 3) Mackenzie Hughes; 4) Greyson Sigg; 5) Adam Long; 6) Chris Gotterup / Harry Hall / Kelly Kraft; 9) Tom Hoge; 10) Eric Cole; 11) Taylor Montgomery; 12) S.H. Kim / Andrew Putnam; 14) Stephan Jaeger; 15) Danny Willett; 16) Alex Smalley; 17) Brendon Todd; 18) J.J. Spaun; 19) Seamus Power / Sam Ryder; 21) Jason Day / Aaron Rai / Sepp Straka; 24) Ryan Brehm; 25) Webb Simpson / Callum Tarren / Ben Taylor.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Brian Harman / Mackenzie Hughes; 3) Jason Day; 4) Joel Dahmen; 5) Andrew Novak; 6) Tom Hoge; 7) Nick Hardy / Matthew NeSmith; 9) Patrick Rodgers; 10) Andrew Putnam; 11) Taylor Montgomery / Greyson Sigg; 13) Matt Kuchar / J.J. Spaun; 15) Seamus Power; 16) Aaron Baddeley / Will Gordon; 18) Alex Smalley; 19) Stephan Jaeger; 20) Davis Riley / Scott Stallings; 22) Ben Griffin / Sam Ryder; 24) Justin Lower; 25) Lee Hodges / Sahith Theegala.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the traditional stats of Seaside Course winners since 2015 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2021, Talor Gooch (-22). 298 yards (22nd), 66.1% fairways (52nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 38’5″ proximity to hole (51st), 83.3 % scrambling (4th), 1.68 putts per GIR (9th).
2020, Robert Streb (-19). 282 yards (51st), 71.4% fairways (36th), 83.3% greens in regulation (7th), 37″10″ proximity to hole (53rd), 83.3 % scrambling (5th), 1.68 putts per GIR (11th).
2019, Tyler Duncan (-19). 280 yards (47th), 89.3% fairways (6th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 24″9″ proximity to hole (1st), 91.7% scrambling (1st), 1.70 putts per GIR (13th).
2018, Charles Howell III (-19). 297 yards (8th), 83.9% fairways (12th), 88.9% greens in regulation (1st), 29″11″ proximity to hole (14th), 50.0% scrambling (70th), 1.69 putts per GIR (19th).
2017, Austin Cook (-21). 288 yards (38th), 85.7% fairways (4th), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 31″10″ proximity to hole (16th), 91.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (11th).
2016, Mackenzie Hughes (-17). 280 yards (57th), 78.6% fairways (11th), 72.2% greens in regulation (50th), 31’1″ proximity to hole (16th), 85.0% scrambling (2nd), 1.62 putts per GIR (1st).
2015, Kevin Kisner (-22). 275 yards (54th), 78.6% fairways (17th), 81.9% greens in regulation (9th), 25’3″ proximity to hole (2nd), 84.6% scrambling (3rd), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 40th, Driving Accuracy: 20th, Greens in Regulation: 11th, Proximity to Hole: 22nd, Scrambling: 12th, Putting Average 9th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends: Analysing the Strokes Gained stats on the host Seaside Course of winners since 2015 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2021, Talor Gooch (-22). SG Off the Tee: 49th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 6th.
2020, Robert Streb (-19). SG Off the Tee: 31st, SG Approach: 36th, SG Around the Green: 27th, SG Tee to Green: 35th, SG Putting: 9th.
2019, Tyler Duncan (-19). SG Off the Tee: 21st, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 38th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 14th.
2018, Charles Howell III (-19). SG Off the Tee: 38th, SG Approach: 17th, SG Around the Green: 40th, SG Tee to Green: 19th, SG Putting: 24th.
2017, Austin Cook (-21). SG Off the Tee: 12th, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 13th.
2016, Mackenzie Hughes (-17). SG Off the Tee: 38th, SG Approach: 61st, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 25th, SG Putting: 3rd.
2015, Kevin Kisner (-22). SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 44th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 4th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 26th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 23rd, SG Tee to Green: 12th, SG Putting: 10th.
So let’s take a view from players as to how both Seaside and Plantation courses set up and what skills the course favours:
Talor Gooch (2021): “It was what you expect out here. It was comfortable, it was a grind. You know there’s going to be some tough stuff, there’s going to be a lot of uncomfortable shots. Like I said, being here a few times when it’s been like this, you know what to expect. And like you said, growing up in Oklahoma, you just, you feel like you have a little bit of advantage when it comes to the windy conditions.
For me, my creativity is just hitting it this high and hitting it low, not let the wind get it. Honestly, the tee shot on the last, I don’t think people realize not a lot of people have that shot. In fact, who’s caddie, either Sebastian’s or John’s caddie was like, Where’d you grow up, dude? I was like, Oklahoma, we’ve got to learn how to hit that one like that. So a couple like tee shots that were just tricky that I kind of fall back on my upbringing to hit some of those. Not super creative, not like moving a bunch, but that’s kind of the point, not to move a bunch.”
Tom Hoge (2021): “Yesterday you knew you had to make birdies. We were on our third or fourth hole and 7 under was the lead out there yesterday and you look up today and nobody’s really going anywhere, so you knew pars were going to go a long ways. I think just the biggest difference is putting. Out there on the Seaside, very exposed so you have a lot of putts- if you had a left-to-right breaker with the wind going in the opposite direction was very hard to figure out what the putt was going to do exactly because the wind can grab it pretty good with some of those gusts out there.”
Robert Streb (2020): “The key to this victory, it was just the putter. I had some pretty good spats of ball-striking in the middle, but I made some putts early and some good par putts the first round, then made a good chunk of them coming down the stretch that got me to 5 under on a pretty windy day the first round. Made a bunch of putts second and third round. I missed a few today, but overall I would say it’s the best I putted in a long time.”
Webb Simpson – DLIII Renovated Plantation Course: “Yeah, I mean, it’s usually windy here like Hilton Head so you’ve got to keep your ball on the ground. You have plenty of holes that are crosswinds, so that can be challenging. There’s water everywhere, so there are some similarities. But I love the redesign, Davis did a great job. There’s a lot of slope in the greens now, so you can really use those slopes to help you and get the ball in the hole.”
Scott Brown – DLIII Renovated Plantation Course: “Plantation‘s much tougher now with the new greens, I think, than it was before. You just had to get it in the right quadrant. You could get some good looks if you got it in those quadrants with the greens the way they’re tiered, but also, you know, on the other hand, if you’ve got them on the wrong side of them, you’ve got a tough two-putt. So I think it’s a great golf course and they’ve made it a lot tougher.”
Charles Howell III: “Yeah, Seaside, honestly if you shoot under par, you’ve played a good day. If I can shoot anything under par tomorrow, I’ll be happy with it and then you keep moving on from there. Anybody that shot 2, 3, 4 under today at Seaside, I mean, my goodness, what a round of golf it is in this wind, holy cow. Anything under par tomorrow would be great with me. Probably 14 just because, yeah, it was blowing pretty hard there on that hole and that’s a hole where you’re on that tee box, you’ll take a 4 and run, and made a 3 there. It was in off the left and just uncomfortable. But yeah, that hole there, because if you make three 4s there throughout the week, you’re happy. So to make a 3 there, it’s a drive and a 9-iron. The tee was up today because of the wind. But yeah, that one.”
Austin Cook: “I was here all four years at the SEC Championship, so I think it’s three rounds, and then – or the old format, three rounds and a practice round, so 16. Just being able to see the golf course and play it multiple times. I think it really does help the more rounds you get on a track, the more confident you are and comfortable you are on the golf course. It’s playing a little different this week than it does in May or whenever SECs are. It’s a little cooler but the grass isn’t quite the same. We’ve got some overseed this week, but I just think that being able to play it as many times as I have just really helped me out.”
Kevin Kisner: “I’m interested to see what the scores will be tomorrow if the wind blows like they’re forecasting. You know, north wind, neither course is really made to play a north wind. I think that’s probably the hardest wind to play Seaside in. So I’m hoping they move the tees up on that course like they did over here, or maybe it just doesn’t blow at all and we can make a bunch of birdies.”
Kevin Chappell: “Yeah, you know, Plantation course is in great shape, but the backside was tough there early. There were some pucker holes, 10 through 13. And then you can kind of get it. Obviously got me early. I played really well there the last 12 holes, last 13 holes. As we made the turn it got swirling pretty good. I drove it well today. I was in position and was able to take advantage of the soft golf course. Having two courses here brings back the feel of Disney again. It was real lax, but there was a tournament going on.”
Zach Johnson: “What they’ve done is added a lot of sand to the fairways over the last year and it helps with the drainage, helps with the run out and that sort of thing. I played here about a week ago, and we had an inch and a half of rain. That’s a lot of rain. I was getting some plugged lies. I played two days after that and I played nine holes, and it was starting to roll out already. They’ve done some nice things with the fairways. The greens have always been perfect. They’re difficult because they’re undulated and they’re kind of table topped somewhat, but they still hold, so it’s going to be a great test. The rough is brutal.”
Brian Harman: “I struck it nice, got some putts to go in. I think statistically which is one of the hardest plays to putt on Tour. The grain is very difficult to read here. I was pleased to make some 10 to 15 footers, some nice mid range putts and when you feel like you’re rolling it well you don’t have to be quite as aggressive coming into the green, so I was playing a lot of shots to the fat side of the green and just gave myself good looks and was fortunate enough to make a few of them.”
Russell Henley: “The other morning in the pro-am, I was hitting it at least a club shorter, and you know, into the wind, into the cold wind, it was playing almost two, and if you hit a normal shot, it’ll spin back into you, so you gotta hit some half shots, so it’s kind of a weird you almost gotta take two more clubs and hit it three quarter shots just to keep it under the wind, so I’d say I was pulling on average two more clubs in the morning. I don’t know. I just confused myself on that one, too.”
Chris Kirk: “Most important factor here? I’d say driving, generally this is a course I would say it’s not an overly long course, so it tends to favour the shorter, straighter hitter. I’m not a bomber by any means, but a little bit longer than average, I guess, on Tour and have yet to finish inside the Top 100 in driving accuracy in my first three years on Tour.
I definitely rely on hitting some good iron shots from the fairway and not always from the fairway and good scrambling and putting. But this is a golf course that you really need to play from the fairway and thankfully I drove the ball well this week and the rest of my game was really good.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for RSM Classic winners:
Mackenzie Hughes: MC OHL/68th Shriners/26th Sanderson/13th Safeway.
Kevin Kisner: 2nd HSBC/37th CIMB/25th Shriners/28th Tour Championship.
Robert Streb: 10th Shriners/31st Fry’s/9th Deutsche/MC Barclays.
Chris Kirk: 25th CIMB/36th Shriners/24th BMW/16th Deutsche.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Jason Day, Brian Gay, Zach Johnson.
3 – Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Camilo Villegas.
2 – Jason Dufner, Harris English, Mackenzie Hughes, Chris Kirk, Davis Love III, Scott Piercy, Justin Rose, Webb Simpson, Robert Streb, Jimmy Walker.
1 – Ryan Armour, Aaron Baddeley, Jonathan Byrd, Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan, Jim Herman, Garrick Higgo, Patton Kizzire, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Francesco Molinari, Keith Mitchell, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Rory Sabbatini, J.J. Spaun, Scott Stallings, Sepp Straka, Kevin Streelman, Brian Stuard, Nick Taylor, Michael Thompson, Brendon Todd, Nick Watney.
This tournament was formally known as the McGladrey Classic, which in 2010-2012 formed part of the PGA Tour Fall Series with the 2013 renewal being played in November as part of the first wrap-around season structure. Every winner of the tournament has played a PGA Tour tournament post-East Lake. It’s also interesting to see that inaugural McGladrey champion Heath Slocum had captured The Barclays title 13 months previously in 2009. Of all the winners on the Seaside course, nobody has won a full Tour tournament in the calendar year prior to triumphing here.
Tommy Gainey, Robert Streb, Kevin Kisner, Mackenzie Hughes, Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan and Talor Gooch all captured their first main Tour titles here in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019 and 2021 respectively. Charles Howell III won here in 2018 – that was 11 and a half years after winning at Riviera in 2007. Streb was the first 2-time winner here in 2020.
I covered off many of the resident, Sea Island Golf Performance Center and SEC links at the top of this Preview. Local links are numerous, but a couple of additional themes jump out for this tournament. Three winners – namely Slocum, Kirk and Kisner – resided in the home state of Georgia when winning this title. You can add Charles Howell III to that list as “CHIII” was born in Augusta, Georgia, despite living in Orlando, Florida, when winning this in 2018. He was also a former Sea Island resident. Other winners have hailed from the southern states of the United States, namely Texas (Crane), South Carolina (Gainey), North Carolina (Hughes), Arkansas (Cook), Florida (Streb – at the time of his 2013 victory – & Duncan) and Gooch (Oklahoma). Mackenzie Hughes and Austin Cook were both PGA Tour rookies.
For another route in, I’ve also looked at other amateur events played in this part of the world. The Jones Cup Invitational is played in February and is part of the Amateur World Rankings. Played since its inception from 2001 to 2019, this event is held just up the coast from Sea Island Resort at the Ocean Forest Golf Club. I’ve listed those who have finished in the top 25 in the Jones Cup since 2007 who are in this week’s field. Some of the names have featured in this event previously:
Jones Cup Results
2021 – 2nd: Davis Thompson.
2020 – 1st: Davis Thompson.
2019 – 2nd: Davis Thompson; 12th: Alex Smalley.
2018 – 8th: Harry Hall; 13th: Davis Riley; 15th: Will Gordon, Davis Thompson; 21st: Lee Hodges, Doc Redman; 25th: Hayden Buckley, Ben Griffin.
2017 – 2nd Max McGreevy; 4th: Andrew Novak, Matthias Schwab, Davis Thompson, Dylan Wu.
2016 – 1st: Beau Hossler; 2nd: Matthew NeSmith; 4th: Matthias Schwab; 15th Davis Riley; 19th: Hank Lebioda, Greyson Sigg.
2015 – 3rd: Hank Lebioda; 5th: Matthew NeSmith, Davis Riley; 8th: Adam Svensson; 11th J.T. Poston; 14th: Ben Taylor.
2011 – 3rd: Patrick Rodgers; 5th: Andrew Putnam; 12th: Kelly Kraft; 16th: C.T. Pan.
2010 – 4th: Byeong Hun An; 8th: Harris English; 12th: Henrik Norlander; 20th: Adam Long.
2009 – 7th: Brian Harman; 19th Andrew Landry.
2007 – 1st: Luke List; 3rd: Michael Thompson; 7th: Brian Harman.
Southeastern Conference (SEC) university golf is also played on the actual Seaside Course every year:
SEC Individual Results
2019 – 3rd: Will Gordon; 4th: Davis Thompson.
2018 – 7th: Lee Hodges; 16th: Hayden Buckley; 24th: Will Gordon.
2017 – 5th: Cameron Champ, Greyson Sigg; 11th: Davis Riley; 16th: Hayden Buckley, Will Gordon.
2016 – 5th: Taylor Moore; 10th: Greyson Sigg; 13th: Matthew NeSmith, Matthias Schwab; 25th: Will Gordon, Davis Riley.
2015 – 1st: Matthew NeSmith; 3rd: Robby Shelton; 6th Taylor Moore; 23rd: Matthias Schwab, Greyson Sigg.
2014 – 13th: Ben Taylor; 21st: Keith Mitchell, Matthew NeSmith.
2013 – 20th Matthew NeSmith.
2012 – 10th: Keith Mitchell; 23rd: Austin Cook.
2011 – 21st: Harris English.
2010 – 10th: Harris English, David Lingmerth; 22nd: Austin Cook.
My selections are as follows:
Matthew NeSmith 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Matthew NeSmith has matured nicely of late on the PGA Tour and will relish a return to SeaIsland after his best ever year. 3rd at the Valspar Championship, 4th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Taylor Moore and 12th at the RBC Heritage amongst 3 more seasonal top-25s saw NeSmith qualify comfortably for the 2022 FedEx Cup Playoffs for the third consecutive season since promotion from the Korn Ferry Tour. A Second Round 61 at the Valspar on the tough Copperhead Course was the highlight as Matthew led his first ever main Tour event at halfway, playing nicely across the weekend to finish 3rd behind Sam Burns and Davis Riley.
The start of the new season though has seen the 29 year-old move into his best ever spell. It started with a fast-finishing 9th at the Sanderson Farms Championship. From there 2nd at the Shriners Children’s Hospital Open was another outstanding performance, with NeSmith 9th after 36 holes and 3rd going into Sunday. Like at Copperhead back in March, the University of South Carolina graduate fought ably on the back-nine, finishing in a tie with Patrick Cantlay, 3 shots back of Tom Kim, after shooting a -5/66. The week after. a second visit to Japan saw NeSmith finish 9th at the ZOZO Championship, generating over $1.2m in prize money across 3 consecutive weeks and pretty much guaranteeing his playing privileges for next season before the close of 2022. Impressive stuff and 53rd last week also contained a couple of top 10 low scoring rounds of the day.
So we now move to the RSM Classic on SeaIsland, an area NeSmith knows very well, as he takes the short trip down IS95 from his base in Aiken, South Carolina. As an amateur he finished 4th (2013), 5th (2015) and 2nd (2016) at the Jones Cup played next door at Ocean Forest Golf Club. And as we know the Southeastern Conference (SEC) Universities Stroke Play tournament is played here on the Seaside Course every April. NeSmith, playing for the University of South Carolina, finished 20th (2013), 21st (2014), 1st (2015) and 13th (2016) across his 4 outings. Impressive results and intimate course knowledge all rolled into one.
A -7/65 on Plantation and closing round -5/65 on the Seaside Course were the highlights of a 14th place finish in his first RSM Classic in 2019, and 2020 featured mid-rounds of -7/63 and -5/65 both on Seaside where Matt finished 15th. 29th last year, I think the low-scoring and confident NeSmith could go very nicely on the Atlantic coast this week. RESULT: MC
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Davis Riley 1.5pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Into his second PGA Tour campaign, Davis Riley has impressed many across his rookie season. 7th at Bermuda, 2nd at Valspar behind Sam Burns, 5th in Mexico behind Jon Rahm and 4th at Charles Schwab behind Burns (again) and Scheffler, he also landed top-20 finishes at the Sony, the Memorial, the Wyndham and the PGA Championship. Big tournaments and a Major Championship to boot. There weren’t many better rookies out there.
His autumn campaign has been quieter, in some events held back by an errant driver, but now that has improved, Davis has finished 21st at Mayakoba and 27th at Houston across consecutive weeks. Ranking 8th for Approach and 10th for Tee to Green across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers, Davis must be looking forward to a tournament where he made the cut on his debut 4 years ago, when as a Korn Ferry player he was 24th going into the weekend, when having no PGA Tour status whatsoever.
A former University of Alabama product, Davis has masses of SEC experience here at Sea Island. Indeed individually – the SEC Championship is predominantly a team event – he was 25th in 2016 and 11th in 2017 on the Seaside Course. 5th (2015), 15th (2016) and 13th (2018) at the amateur Jones Cup played next door at Ocean Forest Golf Club highlights to me a player who knows the SeaIsland courses well, and clearly likes playing on them.RESULT: T46
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Andrew Putnam 1.5pts EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Andrew Putnam is another player who appeals this week on a course where outright power is negated. Putnam has been on a roll in late 2022. Form across his last 11 PGA Tour events reads 11-27-5-23-43-30-12-2-29-48-35 and includes 5th at the St Jude, 12th at the Shriners and 2nd at the ZOZO. Putnam is always happiest on short courses, and loves it best when scoring is low. Receptive greens are also a plus point for the Phoenix, Arizona resident.
2nd place at the recent ZOZO Championship came in pretty cold conditions on a short course where greens were receptive throughout and since then he’s performed adequately on courses that have been too long (Congaree + Memorial Park) and at El Camaleon, a set-up he’s never got on well with. 2nd at Waialae (2019), 3rd at Colonial (2019) along with his win at Montreux (2018), highlight where Putnam is happiest – on shorter courses, and he’s fairly equal when it comes to Bermudagrass or Bentgrass greens. An all-round putter if you like.
6th (2022) at Pebble Beach, 5th (2021) at Puerto Rico, 5th (2018) at Corales and the aforementioned 2nd (2019) at Waialae highlight a player who is comfortable by the coast. Course form-wise, Andrew was 12th here at Sea Island way back in 2014, and was 4th going into Sunday on course debut, ranking 5th for Strokes Gained on Approach and 4th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green. More of the same would be ideal for a player who ranks 10th in this field for Strokes Gained Total over the past 8 weeks across my 8-week tracker.RESULT: T21
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With relatively cold, northern European conditions in play in Georgia this week, getting a European onside at a decent price seems a decent play, so I’m taking Justin Rose who played some outstanding golf last week at Memorial Park.
9th for Driving Accuracy, 2nd for Greens in Regulation – his best mark since the 2020 Singapore Open – and 3rd for Total Accuracy, Rose was excellent from both Off the Tee and On Approach, plus UK-domiciled Justin was 6th for Strokes Gained Putting. 3rd going into Sunday, his eventual 9th place finish was his best on the PGA Tour since 4th at the Canadian Open back in June.
And it’s interesting to compare Rose now to where he was 12 months ago. Last Fall, pretty abject displays at the no-cut CJ Cup (57th) and Mayakoba (40th) were his warm-up to the RSM Classic, where he shot 65-68-70-65 to finish 12th on only his second visit to this stretch of the Georgia coast. He ranked 1st for Total Driving, 2nd for Ball Striking and 13th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green at the Seaside Course.
It’s also worth remembering that Justin has finished 3rd (2012) and 8th (2021) at the PGA Championships held just up the coastline at Kiawah Island, and Justin’s record at classic United States coastal courses such as Pebble Beach (6th, 2016 & 3rd 2019 U.S. Open) plus Torrey Pines (4th 2017, 8th 2018, 1st 2019 and 6th 2022) are excellent. 2nd (2017) at Waialae makes more sense from a Bermudagrass agronomy perspective, and Justin is a 2-time winner on Bermudagrass greens across his 10 PGA Tour victories. RESULT: T29
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Davis Thompson 1pt EW 90/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
We have seen rookies win this in the recent past. Mackenzie Hughes (2016) was a 250/1 chance, whereas Austin Cook (2017) won at 90/1. Davis Thompson of this season’s fresh crop, currently rates as the 8th most successful and that’s been driven mainly by 9th at the Fortinet and 12th at the Shriners. A prodigious driver of the golf ball – he ranks 15th so far this season for Strokes Gained Off the Tee – he’s also ensconced in the top 35 for Strokes Gained Tee to Green so far in this embryonic season.
The thing that really appeals to me with Thompson are his local links to Sea Island, and this stretch of coastline. He lives on neighbouring St Simons Island, practices at the Sea Island Performance Centre full-time, and his father is the RSM Classic tournament director. 23rd when playing here as an amateur 4 years ago, he astonishingly led the Tee to Green category that week across his 54 holes on the Seaside Course (remember they only capture Strokes Data on the Host Course).
And from an amateur perspective, he’s performed extremely well both on the Seaside Course and next door at the Ocean Forest Golf Club. 4th (2017), 15th (2018), 2nd (2019), 1st (2020) and 2nd (2021) at the Jones Cup (Ocean Forest), and 4th (2019) at the SEC Championship, highlights a player who has had huge success here. Well worth a follow this week at backable each-way odds. RESULT: MC
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✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
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