Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's Sanderson Farms Championship Tips 2021

Get Steve's previews as soon as they're published @Bamfordgolf Follow Now

Get 4 x £/€5 FREE BETS to use on this week’s golf! New customers who bet £/€5 (or £/€5 EW) with Ladbrokes on any sport get 4 x £/€5 free bets to use on any golf bets – plus they’re going 8 places each way, 1/5 odds on this week’s Sanderson Farms Championship. No promo code required, simply use this qualifying link to claim this offer.

  • 18+ New UK+IRE customers. Paypal and certain deposit types and bet types excluded. Min £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4 x £/€5 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days on sports, stake not returned, no cashout. Restrictions apply. T&Cs apply. #Ad

This week we move to Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship.

A staple on the PGA Tour since 1994, the Sanderson Farms has been promoted from an alternate event to a full 500 Point FedEx Cup event, with a healthy $7 million on the table for the visiting players. For reference, this week’s European Tour Alfred Dunhill Links Championship has a $5 million fund. As we have seen across the last 3 renewals here, this tournament has been a launchpad to PGA Tour fortune for both Cameron Champ and Sebastian Munoz – and ultimately to the Ryder Cup for Sergio Garcia.

Field quality has improved year-on-year with Sergio Garcia defending this week. He sits amidst a field which contains Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris, Si Woo Kim, Matthew Wolff, Lucas Herbert, Mackenzie Hughes and K.H. Lee all from within the world’s top 60 in Mississippi this week.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Sanderson Farms Championship we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System, Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,000 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Ladbrokes Sanderson Farms Championship – Featured Bookmaker:

Ladbrokes are leading the way for this week’s Sanderson Farms Championship, offering an excellent 8 places each-way at 1/5 odds. They are also offering 8 places each-way at 1/5 odds on the Alfred Dunhill Championship this week, providing a superb 6 additional each-way spots this week across the main Tours. If you haven’t already got a Ladbrokes account then new customers can access their new customer offer using the link below:

✅ Bet £/€5 get £/€20 in free bets using this qualifying link.
✅ For further details read our Ladbrokes promo code page.
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and European Tour
✅ Daily ‘Odds Boost’ available to use on your golf bets to enhance the advertised odds

Ladbrokes New Customer Offer: 18+. UK+IRE customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excluded. Min £/€5 first bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4 x £/€5 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days on sports, stakes not returned, restrictions apply. T&Cs apply. #Ad

Course Guide: Despite extending the Country Club of Jackson course by 57 yards in 2018, the course doesn’t hold too many fears for PGA Tour pros. At 7,461 yards for a Par 72, length is pretty standard for these modern times, especially as it’s set on a flat property with fairways that are relatively wide by modern standards. Trees are a feature on most holes but they’re relatively sparse and the course features plenty of straight holes.

Country Club of Jackson, Jackson, Mississippi: Designer: Wilson, 1962, Fought redesign, 2008; Course Type: Resort; Par: 72; Length: 7,461 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 5; Fairways: 419 Bermudagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass with Zoysiagrass, 2″; Greens: 6,200 sq.ft average Champion Ultra Dwarf Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 12ft. Scoring Average 2014: 71.47 (-0.53), Difficulty Rank 27 of 52 courses. 2015: 70.47 (-1.53), Difficulty Rank 46 of 50 courses. 2016: 71.06 (-0.94), Difficulty Rank of 34 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.83 (-0.17), Difficulty Rank of 21 of 51 courses. 2018: 71.25 (-0.75), Difficulty Rank 26 of 49 courses. 2019: 70.90 (-1.10), Difficulty Rank 26 of 41 courses. 2020: 71.08 (-0.92), Difficulty Rank 32 of 51 courses.

Widths Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the CC of Jackson and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

  • CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
  • Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
  • East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
  • Caves Valley: 40- 60 yards.
  • Liberty National: 250 yards from tee: 37 yards wide; 275:33; 300:30 325:31; 350:27.
  • Sedgefield: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:26 325:23; 350:22.
  • TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.

Course Overview: The course is a mixture of 2 sets of 9 holes, namely Azalea and Dogwood. John Fought, who re-modelled the course in 2008, is an admirer of Donald Ross’s work and as such it’s interesting to note that green complexes on the whole are raised and have run-off areas similar to many a Ross design.

Greens are pretty average in size – 6,200 sq.ft. average – and feature Ultradwarf Champion Bermudagrass, the likes of which were found at previous tournament host course Annandale, but also feature at Trinity Forest (2018 + 2019 HP Byron Nelson), TPC Southwind, RTJ Trail (Grand National – Barbasol Championship 2015 – 2017), Sedgefield (since 2012) and Quail Hollow (since the 2017 PGA Championship).

Visually the course looks quite tight and with Nick Taylor, Peter Malnati, Cody Gribble, Ryan Armour, Sebastian Munoz and Sergio Garcia all ending up at least mid-division for driving accuracy when winning here, a level of respect off the tee seemed a prerequisite. However, the severe ‘bomb and gouge’ tactics of Cameron Champ worked fantastically well in 2018. as he posted a CC of Jackson record winning score of -21/267 to beat Corey Conners by 4 shots.

The Country Club of Jackson does present a level of challenge and interestingly we’ve seen a mix of relatively fast, soft and cold/windy conditions across the past 7 renewals held here. Ultimately though winning scores of -20/268, -19/269, -21/267, -18/270 and -19/269 over the past 5 years highlight a tournament where low scoring and top-notch Champion Bermudagrass putting are the order of the day.

The key to contending here seems to be to unlock a relatively difficult set of par-5s – 8th most difficult for Birdie or Better Conversion in 2018 – whilst scoring well on a set of par-4s that are far easier in comparison. Taylor, Malnati, Gribble, Armour and Champ all topped the field for birdies made on their way to victories here; both Munoz and Garcia were ensconced within the top 10 for birdie and better conversion, whilst only leaking 3 bogeys and 5 bogeys respectively.

sanderson farms championship tips

CC of Jackson Winners: 2020: Sergio Garcia (-19); 2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18); 2018: Cameron Champ (-21); 2017: Ryan Armour (-19); 2016: Cody Gribble (-20); 2015: Peter Malnati (-18); 2014: Nick Taylor (-16).

Cut Line: 2020: -3; 2019: -3; 2018: -1; 2017: -1; 2016: -2; 2015: -3; 2014: -1.

Lead Score Progression:

  • 2020: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -19.
  • 2019: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -18.
  • 2018: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -17; Round 4 -21.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Sergio Garcia, Taylor Pendrith, Sam Burns, Charley Hoffman, Sungjae Im, Luke List, Will Zalatoris, Si Woo Kim, Corey Conners and Joseph Bramlett.

Tournament Winners & Prices: 2020: Garcia 70/1; 2019: Munoz 66/1; 2018: Champ 66/1; 2017: Armour 125/1; 2016: Gribble 125/1; 2015: Malnati 250/1; 2014: Taylor 400/1; 2013: Austin 125/1; 2012: Stallings 100/1; 2011: Kirk 30/1; 2010: Haas 22/1. Past 8 Renewals Average: 133/1; Overall Average: 125/1.

Historical Weather:

  • 2020: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind NNW 7-14 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 73. Wind NE 4-8 mph in the morning, switching to NNW 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind ENE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind NNW 5-10 mph.
  • 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 92. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended at 2:46 p.m. CT and called for the day at 5:57 p.m. Friday: Round one resumed at 7:01 a.m. Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Due to darkness, round two was suspended at 7:03 p.m. Saturday: Round two resumed at 7:30 a.m. and ended at 9:34 a.m. Third-round tee times were adjusted to be between 10:30 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. in threesomes of Nos. 1 and 10. Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind SSE 6-12 mph, with gusts to 15 mph.
  • 2018: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 61. Wind NW 10-15, with gusts to 20 mph. Due to darkness, round one was suspended for the day at 6:13 p.m. and resumed at 8:20 a.m. Friday (12 players). Friday: Round one concluded at 8:41 a.m., with round two beginning as scheduled at 7:20 a.m. Light rain and cloudy. High of 61. Wind NW 10-15, with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 70. Wind W 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 83. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
  • 2017: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 79. Wind SSW 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with a high of 77. Wind SSW 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: High of 58. NNW wind 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny and cool, with a high of 63. NW wind 7-12 mph.
  • 2016: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 86. Wind S 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 87. Wind S 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 88. Wind SSW 5-10 mph.
  • 2015: Thursday: Cloudy, with showers off and on throughout the day. High of 81 degrees. Winds SSW 7-14 mph. Friday: Due to lightning, round two was suspended for the day at 4:49 p.m. Saturday: Cloudy, with rain throughout the day. High of 68 degrees, with NNE winds 10-15 mph. Play was called for the day just before 2 p.m. local time with 76 players remaining to complete the second round. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 62 degrees. NNE winds 10-15 mph. Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 66 degrees. Winds NNW 5-10 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Jackson, Mississippi is here.

Where 2020 here in Jackson was soft, we do see varied turf conditions from year to year. With only 43mm of rain in September, 30 degree Celsius temperatures soon absorb that level of moisture. So with a low chance of rain pre-Thursday, I would expect firm fairways and watered, receptive greens. With little wind forecast, I would therefore expect a typical birdie-fest. Temperatures between 28-30 degrees Celsius this week are warmer than 2020, so green watering is assured. Sunday looks cooler at 24 degrees Celsius.

Recent Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the WGC St Jude Invitational/Hero Open which includes PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Taylor Pendrith / Matthias Schwab; 3) David Lipsky; 4) Corey Conners; 5) Sungjae Im; 6) Ryan Armour / Dawie van der Walt; 8) Sergio Garcia / Camilo Villegas / Cameron Young; 11) K.H. Lee; 12) Sam Burns / Keith Mitchell / Will Zalatoris; 15) Anirban Lahiri; 16) Carlos Ortiz; 17) Cameron Davis; 18) Aaron Rai; 19) Emiliano Grillo / Sahith Theegala; 21) Davis Thompson; 22) Lee Hodges / Callum Tarren; 24) Chez Reavie.; 25) Kiradech Aphibarnrat / Tyler Duncan / Nick Hardy / Rory Sabbatini.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Max McGreevy; 2) John Augenstein; 3) Nick Hardy; 4) Sungjae Im; 5) Keegan Bradley / Bronson Burgoon; 7) Scott Gutschewski; 8) Davis Riley; 9) Corey Conners / Chad Ramey / Sam Ryder; 12) Dawie van der Walt; 13)  Hudson Swafford; 14) Sahith Theegala; 15) Will Zalatoris; 16) Sam Burns / Talor Gooch; 18) C.T. Pan / Callum Tarren; 20) Aaron Rai / Kevin Streelman; 22) Joseph Bramlett / Seung-yul Noh; 24) Harold Varner III; 25) Chesson Hadley / Charley Hoffman.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Scott Piercy; 2) Paul Barjon; 3) Si Woo Kim; 4) Bill Haas; 5) Chad Ramey; 6) Trey Mullinax; 7) Patrick Rodgers; 8) Sung Kang / Cameron Tringale; 10) Dylan Wu; 11) Aaron Wise; 12) Sam Burns / Greyson Sigg; 14) Mackenzie Hughes / Adam Svensson; 16) Jared Wolfe; 17) Taylor Pendrith; 18) Harold Varner III; 19) Brian Gay; 20) Richy Werenski; 21) Will Zalatoris; 22) Sungjae Im / Nick Watney; 24) Sergio Garcia / K.H. Lee / Andrew Putnam / Doc Redman.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Sungjae Im; 2) Sahith Theegala; 3) Sam Burns; 4) Corey Conners / Nick Hardy / Will Zalatoris; 7) Dawie van der Walt; 8) Chad Ramey; 9) Aaron Rai; 10) Scott Piercy / Greyson Sigg; 12) Callum Tarren; 13) John Augenstein / Si Woo Kim / Matthias Schwab; 16) Charley Hoffman / Sung Kang / C.T. Pan; 19) Sergio Garcia / Nick Watney; 21) K.H. Lee; 22) Keegan Bradley; 23) Talor Gooch; 24) Carlos Ortiz; 25) Aaron Wise.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Matthias Schwab; 2) David Lipsky / Nick Taylor; 4) Joshua Creel; 5) Sam Burns 6) Curtis Thompson; 7) Stephan Jaeger; 8) Cameron Davis / Harold Varner III; 10) Mackenzie Hughes; 11) Sergio Garcia / Taylor Pendrith; 13) Tyler McCumber / Cameron Tringale / Kevin Tway; 16) Lanto Griffin; 17) Paul Barjon; 18) Dawie van der Walt; 19) Aaron Wise; 20) Kiradech Aphibarnrat; 21) Keegan Bradley / Corey Conners; 23) Brian Gay / Lucas Herbert / Chris Kirk / Camilo Villegas.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Sam Burns / Matthias Schwab; 3) Will Zalatoris; 4) Corey Conners; 5) John Augenstein / David Lipsky / Dawie van der Walt; 8) Sungjae Im; 9) Charley Hoffman; 10) Harold Varner III / Aaron Wise; 12) Cameron Davis / Scott Piercy / Aaron Rai / Greyson Sigg; 16) Sergio Garcia / Sung Kang; 18) Patrick Rodgers / Cameron Tringale; 20) Si Woo Kim / K.H. Lee; 22) Keegan Bradley / Nick Hardy / Taylor Pendrith; 25) Kevin Tway.

For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Jackson since 2015 click here

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends: Analysing the Strokes Gained stats of Jackson CC winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2020, Sergio Garcia (-19). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 46th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 28th.
  • 2019, Sebastian Munoz (-18). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 20th, SG Around the Green: 40th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 5th.
  • 2018, Cameron Champ (-21). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 21st, SG Around the Green: 42nd, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 2nd.
  • 2017, Ryan Armour (-19). SG Off the Tee: 39th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 2nd.
  • 2016, Cody Gribble (-20). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 28th, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 1st.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

  • SG Off the Tee: 11th, SG Approach: 13th, SG Around the Green: 34th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 8th.

Traditional Skill Set Trends: Analysing the final stats of CC of Jackson G&CC winners since 2014 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2020, Sergio Garcia (-19). 306 yards (9th), 60.7% fairways (14th), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 31″10″ proximity to hole (6th), 66.7% scrambling (29th), 1.67 putts per GIR (10th).
  • 2019, Sebastian Munoz (-18). 315 yards (4th), 51.8% fairways (36th), 79.2% greens in regulation (9th), 35″4″ proximity to hole (28th), 80.7 % scrambling (7th), 1.65 putts per GIR (11th).
  • 2018, Cameron Champ (-21). 334 yards (1st), 46.4% fairways (65th), 76.4% greens in regulation (9th), 37″5″ proximity to hole (36th), 58.8 % scrambling (55th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2017, Ryan Armour (-19). 269 yards (69th), 71.4% fairways (3rd), 79.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 29″5″ proximity to hole (1st), 53.3 % scrambling (60th), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2016, Cody Gribble (-20). 312 yards (11th), 51.8% fairways (38th), 72.2% greens in regulation (29th), 36″3″ proximity to hole (31st), 80.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.56 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2015, Peter Malnati (-18). 266 yards (66th), 58.9% fairways (35th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 34″8* proximity to hole (33rd), 58.3 % scrambling (62nd), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2014, Nick Taylor (-16). 295 yards (11th), 53.6% fairways (40th), 80.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 36″4″ proximity to hole (32nd), 71.4 % scrambling (17th), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th).

Traditional Skill Set Averages:

  • Driving Distance: 16th, Driving Accuracy: 33rd, Greens in Regulation: 8th, Proximity to Hole: 24th, Scrambling: 33rd, Putting Average 5th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how CC of Jackson has played in recent years and what specific skills it requires:

Sergio Garcia (2020): “Yes, but you have to be, even playing as well as I played today, you’re still going to miss a couple of greens here and there because it’s a little tricky with the way the greens are, as fast as they are. You’re hitting to small spots because you know that if you miss your spot it’s going to run and you’re going to have a longish putt that is not easy to two-putt. Your short game still has to be good, which it has been for me, and your putter has to be good. I’ve been able to put pretty much everything together this week, and I have to do more of the same tomorrow.

I obviously knew that Peter – he finished at 18, so I knew that I needed to birdie one of the last two or three to get ahead. I actually thought I birdied 17. I hit a great putt. I thought I made it. Unfortunately I didn’t. But then I stood up on 18 and I did what I’ve been doing all week. I trusted myself. I aimed down the right side of the fairway and just hit a hard draw, really, really nice drive, actually went quite long because it was playing a little bit into the wind, and it gave me the ability to have an 8-iron into the green instead of having a 6 or something like that, and then just hit, funny enough, my last win, Augusta, well, my last win on the PGA Tour at Augusta, the 8-iron on 15, this time it was the 8-iron on 18, and to almost hit the pin again and to hit it that close, obviously it was a dream come true.”

Sebastian Munoz (2019): “Yeah, so on 6 I hit my driver left and it was unlucky enough that it hit one of the first trees and came back. So by my calculations we had like 235 front with not a lot of options in front of me. Like had to keep it low, and fairway runs on an angle. So it was really easy to hit it from the rough to the rough and have like 90 or 130 out. So I saw, it’s probably like 260 to the pin. That’s what I had the my 3-wood. If I just slice it, which is the shot I feel more comfortable with, fade instead of draw, I could give myself a chance. I saw a bounce there and just reminded me of Phil. What would Phil do? I’m like, Fortune favors the bold, so took it, believed in myself, pulled the shot, and got the up and down. Make it all worth it.

And then back on the playoff hole, all back to the beginning. Still like my heartbeat was still up. All right, calm down. We still got work to do. Still hit a good drive, and from there on. Once I notice Sungjae was over the green, all I wanted to do was kind of keep it short of the pin. I knew that’s a tough up and down. So hit the 9-iron, but it didn’t came as hot as I thought it was going to be from the rough. Left it short, and that’s not an easy chip. These Bermuda greens, they kind of check pretty fast on you. Got to be pretty bold. It’s just different way to play it.”

Cameron Champ (2018): “Obviously driver is the key out here, I think. If I hit driver well out here, like I said, it’s a very scorable course. So I just kept hitting it as much as I could. Even if the fairways were tighter, I felt like if I was further up, even in the rough versus hitting a 3-wood being 40 yards back, I would rather be up there. I guess that’s the game plan.”

Ryan Armour (2017): “You just try. I mean, you’re not always going to be able to, but my strength is – obviously have figured this out finally – is driving it in the fairway, hitting it on the green, and trying to make putts. You get some wedges in your hand on 14 and 15, so you’re looking to make up some ground there. 13 is a good little par-3. Just have had good numbers there the last two days. Then 16, chip-in yesterday, 60-footer today. I don’t overpower a golf course. I don’t go for very many par-5s. I had a chance to go for No. 11 and I laid up. It’s just one of those making percentage choices for me.

Cody Gribble (2016): “Well, first, being in the South, growing up on Bermuda fairways, Bermuda greens, it’s something difficult, I think. There were some places in there, I think even on 15 – I think it was 15, yeah, there’s some grain running into you. It’s not a comfortable feeling when you’re having to hit a chip that all that grain is tight going into you. That’s something I’ve been able to learn from a young age, and Randy has done a really good job helping me do that through the years. It goes down to just knowing where the pin is at on every green, and do you have a miss, knowing your misses, knowing where to miss the ball, knowing where you can’t miss the ball. I think in the last 54 holes, I’ve made one bogey, and that was on 12, and the pin was front right, and you cannot miss that ball right. I looked at Bob, and I was like – I watched Andres Romero hit a shot almost in the water left, and he was in a better position than I was 20 feet right of the hole.

Peter Malnati (2015): “I mean, the course suits my strengths really well. Several of the par-4s I’m able to hit a short iron into. Because of the wetness, the softness of the conditions, I think that sort of neutralized the par-5s. Some of the longer hitters were probably able to get up there in two on the par-5s, but I’d say the majority of the field probably couldn’t, so the par-5s became a bit of a wedge contest, which plays right into my hands. Like I said, several of the par-4s give you a short iron; plays right into my hands. And then the two holes that you would kind of pinpoint as being longer holes, 16 and 18, I really played well all week. I hit it in the water on 16 in the first round I remember, but outside of that, I think I made nothing but pars, maybe a birdie or two even on 16 and 18. If I have a week where I’m going to take those long par-4s and play them well, I really feel like that’s the week when I’m going to be up there and be in contention, and sure enough, it was this week.

Nick Taylor (2014): “Yeah, the finishing holes 16, 17, 18, it was a good finish. But there were some tougher holes, I think. Some scoring holes on the back nine, both par 5s you can get to the front of the green or around them. 15, I did, and I hit it 20 yards from the green. So I’m not sure if it opened the tee up, but a lot of guys hit driver into that. There were some scoring holes, but you have to hit the fairways on all the par 4s to have a chance to go at the pins because if you have the wet Bermuda, it’s tough to judge coming out of there, and the greens are so quick. So fairways are key for sure, but they’re definitely scoring.

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 7 Sanderson Farms Championship winners:

  • 2020 – Sergio Garcia: Round 1: 17th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2019 – Sebastian Munoz: Round 1: 43rd, Round 2: 9th, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2018 – Cameron Champ: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2017 – Ryan Armour: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2016 – Cody Gribble: Round 1: 101st, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 3rd.
  • 2015 – Peter Malnati: Round 1: 42nd, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 3rd.
  • 2014 – Nick Taylor: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 5th.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the last 7 Sanderson Farms winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

  • 2020 – Sergio Garcia: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: level.
  • 2019 – Sebastian Munoz: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
  • 2018 – Cameron Champ: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: level, Round 3: 4 ahead.
  • 2017 – Ryan Armour: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
  • 2016 – Cody Gribble: Round 1: 10 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2015 – Peter Malnati: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2014 – Nick Taylor: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 4 back.

Incoming form of winners since 2014:

  • Sergio Garcia: MC USO/MC Safeway/66th Wyndham/MC PGA.
  • Sebastian Munoz: 7th Greenbrier/43rd Northern Trust/48th Sedgefield/11th Barracuda.
  • Cameron Champ: 25th Safeway/MC web.com TC/33rd Boise/16th DAP.
  • Ryan Armour: MC Safeway/25th DAP/51st Boise/2nd Nationwide Children’s.
  • Cody Gribble: 8th Safeway/5th Nationwide Children’s/MC Boise/MC/DAP.
  • Peter Malnati: 56th Shriners/MC Fry’s Open/MC web.com TC/MC Nationwide Children’s.
  • Nick Taylor: MDF McGladrey/56th Shriners/MC Fry’s Open/21st web.com Tour Championship.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2014. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

  • 2020 – Chappell/Hoffman/Munoz/Walker 2AM/2PM Split -8/64 – 125/1, 70/1, 50/1, 150/1.
  • 2019 – Hoge/Poston AM/PM Split -8/64 – 80/1, 55/1.
  • 2018 – Cameron Champ – AM Wave -7/65 – 55/1.
  • 2017 – Armour/Clark/Landry/Shindler/Spaun 3AM/2PM -6/66 – 100/1, 150/1, 45/1, 100/1, 175/1.
  • 2016 – Kevin Streelman – PM Wave -9/63 – 50/1.
  • 2015 – Roberto Castro – PM Wave -10/62.
  • 2014 – Sebastian Cappelen – (10th tee) -7/65.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 4 – Brian Gay, Bill Haas, Zach Johnson.
  • 3 – Sergio Garcia, Si Woo Kim, Brandt Snedeker, Camilo Villegas.
  • 2 – Chris Kirk, Scott Piercy, Robert Streb, Jimmy Walker.
  • 1 – Ryan Armour, Jonas Blixt, Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, Tyler Duncan, Cody Gribble, Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes, Sungjae Im, Sung Kang, Patton Kizzire, Martin Laird, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Keith Mitchell, Sebastian Munoz, Seung-yul Noh, Carlos Ortiz, C.T. Pan, J.T. Poston, Rory Sabbatini, Scott Stallings, Kevin Streelman, Brian Stuard, Hudson Swafford, Nick Taylor, Brendon Todd, Michael Thompson, Nick Watney, Aaron Wise, Gary Woodland.

It’s clear that up until this point the Sanderson Farms Championship has been volatile in terms of its winners since it moved to its autumn spot in the wraparound season format.

Tour rookie Nick Taylor was a 400/1 shot in 2014 and although Peter Malnati had a season’s PGA Tour experience behind him, his best main Tour finish before arriving in Mississippi had been 14th in Puerto Rico 18 months earlier. Malnati scored in Mississippi at 250/1 with a few punters stumbling on him mainly because he lived down the road in Knoxville, had won on Bermudagrass greens in Brazil on the web.com Tour earlier in the season and was known for his birdie-making style in softer conditions.

Cody Gribble in 2016 was a well-backed form horse who had finished 5th in his last Korn Ferry Tour outing and a comfortable 9th on his PGA Tour debut 2 weeks prior in Napa, California. Plenty of punters scored on the Texan rookie at a rather tasty 125/1. 2017 saw Ryan Armour score his maiden PGA Tour victory at the Sanderson Farms – his build-up had included 4th at the Sedgefield hosted Wyndham on the PGA Tour and 2nd at Ohio State GC in the web.com Playoffs. His win was again at 125/1.

2018 saw Cameron Champ deliver at 66/1. Rated by a couple of commentators as one of the best players to have been promoted from the Korn Ferry Tour, Champ had finished 25th at the season-opening Safeway Open, where he closed with a -4/68 – the joint third best Sunday round. His Korn Ferry Playoffs campaign had seen him finish a best of 16th at the DAP Championship, but Champ was undoubtedly talented, winning the Utah Championship, and backing that up with 4 top-8 finishes. He also ranked 2nd for Scoring Average, 3rd for Total Driving, 2nd for Ball Striking, 5th for All-Round across his Korn Ferry promotion season.

2019 saw Sebastian Munoz become the sixth consecutive PGA Tour maiden to win the Sanderson Farms Championship and again at a 66/1 price point. 2019 had seen Munoz land 4 PGA Tour top-10 finishes, jumping 119 Official World Golf Ranking spots into the bargain. The week previous he’d finished like a train at the Greenbrier Classic shooting consecutive Saturday and Saturday 66s, to back-door 7th place. Tellingly he ranked 3rd for SG on Approach at the Greenbrier, in tandem with ranking in the top 7 across my 8-week rolling Strokes Gained Putting tracker.

With a slightly deeper field at the 2020 Sanderson Farms Championship, the tournament was remarkable for a 70/1 victory for Sergio Garcia. The price tells the story with Sergio winning off immediate form of MC/MC/66/MC. Clearly with a ceiling far better than his price, Garcia was the sort you could throw in at a price, based upon nothing at all positive in the immediate build-up. Correlating course-wise, his win in the 2012 Wyndham at Sedgefield Country Club though was really concrete with the positive Champion Bermudagrass green link.

My selections are as follows:

Mito Pereira 2pts EW 33/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

The results keep coming for Chilean Mito Pereira. 5th at the Barbasol Championship, 6th at the 3M Open and 3rd across regulation 72-hole play at the Olympics in Japan were before the PGA Tour season wrap. Mito then opened his new season campaign with 3rd at the Fortinet Championship a fortnight ago.

It’s been an impressive step up from the Korn Ferry Tour, where he landed 3 wins across the elongated season, and those wins are interesting in themselves. He seems to be the sort who carries over form and wins at the Country Club of Bogota Championship, Rex Hospital Open and BMW Charity Open came off preceding finishes of 3rd, 10th and 1st respectively. When he’s hot, he remains hot.

And with his power, I think the Country Club of Jackson course will be another he likes. From a Strokes Gained perspective, he was 11th for Off the Tee, 2nd for Approach and 1st for Tee to Green at Silverado last time out. For those of you who prefer traditional statistics that translates to 1st for Total Driving, 3rd for Greens in Regulation and 1st for Ball Striking. 20th for Driving Distance across the embryonic 2021/22 PGA Tour season statistics, I like his chances this week at a course where long drivers Champ and Garcia have won 2 of the past 3 renewals. RESULT: T31

✅ Bet £/€10 Get £/€30 in free bets for new customers using code H30 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our William Hill promo code page
✅ Earliest bookmaker to publish odds most weeks on the PGA Tour and European Tour
✅ Offered 9 places each-way 1/5 odds at all 2021 Major Championships

William Hill New Customer Offer: 18+. Play safe. New customers using Promo code H30 only, Min £10/€10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply. #Ad

Talor Gooch – WD Pre-Event

It’s my first ever time on Talor Gooch and I love his chances.

This week will be his 98th start on the PGA Tour and it’s his 5th season on the Tour. He maybe a Tour maiden to this point, but he’s an undoubted talent who has consistently been around the top 60/70 in the OWGR since 5th at the Players Championship back in May, played on the Par 72 at TPC Sawgrass.

Gooch seemingly saves his best performances for Par 72s in general with 4th at PGA West (2019), 3rd at Torrey Pines (2019), 4th at Houston GC (2020), 5th at Shadow Creek (2020) and last week’s 4th at Silverado all coming on courses with 4 par-5s to attack. Indeed 6 of his 8 Tour top-10 finishes have all come on 72s and it won’t surprise you therefore to read that last season he ranked in the top 50 for par-5 Birdie or Better conversion and in the top 35 for par-5 Scoring Average.

4th at the Fortinet last time out, Talor averaged 310 yards off the tee – his 4th consecutive + 305 yard performance – and was 6th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He arrives in Mississippi in good spirits and must be looking forward to the Sanderson Farms – a tournament where he has finished 30th (2017), 14th (2018) and 37th (2020) across 3 appearances. 8th after 54 holes in 2018, he started last year well and was 7th going into the weekend at Jackson Country Club.

A player for me who is very close to the front of the queue when it comes to capturing their first PGA Tour title in a pretty weak Fall event. WD Pre-Event

C.T. Pan 1pt EW 66/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

Neat and tidy sorts have done well here in the past. Nick Taylor, Peter Malnati and Ryan Armour have all won at the Country Club of Jackson. As a trio, they hardly bomb it off the tee. So on that basis I like the look of C.T. Pan this week who I put up as recently as the Wyndham Championship.

Pan is a PGA Tour Bermudagrass winner having won his maiden title at the 2019 RBC Heritage at Harbour Town. And a look at his results CV also shows 6th at the 2016 RSM Classic (Sea Island), 2nd at the 2018 Wyndham Championship (Sedgefield) and 3rd at this year’s Honda Classic (PGA National). On shorter formats Cheng-Tsung can most certainly compete – you can add 3rd at the 2019 Charles Schwab Challenge (Colonial) and 6th at the Fortinet Championship (Silverado) a fortnight ago into that mix.

Country Club of Jackson form is also solid as in only 2 appearances he finished 12th here as recently as last year and it’s worth noting that he arrived in Mississippi with form of 61-61-69-MC-72. Hardly stellar. But 12 months on and Pan’s form reads 6-MC-29-3 with that that 3rd place being the bronze medal at the Olympics.

Across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers he ranks 18th for Approach and 16th for Tee to Green and 31st for Strokes Gained Current Form. RESULT: T11

✅ Bet £/€10 Get £/€30 in free bets for new customers using code H30 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our William Hill promo code page
✅ Earliest bookmaker to publish odds most weeks on the PGA Tour and European Tour
✅ Offered 9 places each-way 1/5 odds at all 2021 Major Championships

William Hill New Customer Offer: 18+. Play safe. New customers using Promo code H30 only, Min £10/€10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply. #Ad

Scott Piercy 1pt EW 80/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

Scott Piercy has been excellent of late in non-FedEx Cup Playoff events. 3rd at the Barracuda (4th after 54 holes), 15th at the Wyndham (3rd after 54 holes) and 11th at the Fortinet Championship (9th after 54 holes). Such strong play comes thorough in my 8 week Strokes Gained trackers where the Las Vegas, Nevada man ranks 10th for Tee to Green and 12th for Current Form – those figures would drop significantly if we took away the single outing Korn Ferry graduates.

Scott has always been a player to follow when confident and delivering results, and his record on low-scoring assignments has always been excellent. His 4 PGA Tour wins have come at -15/273, -17/263, -19/265 and -22/266 (when teamed with Billy Horschel at the 2018 Zurich Classic). He’s also a 2-time Bermudagrass green winner, with the first of those coming in neighbouring Alabama at the 2015 Barbasol Championship.  Back then the tournament was played on the Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail in Auburn, a course which featured Champion Bermudagrass greens.

It’s worth noting that he also shot 64-66 across Thursday and Friday at Sedgefield Country Club in mid-August – again another course which features Champion Bermudagrass putting surfaces. RESULT: MC

✅ Bet £/€10 Get £/€30 in free bets for new customers using code H30 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our William Hill promo code page
✅ Earliest bookmaker to publish odds most weeks on the PGA Tour and European Tour
✅ Offered 9 places each-way 1/5 odds at all 2021 Major Championships

William Hill New Customer Offer: 18+. Play safe. New customers using Promo code H30 only, Min £10/€10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply. #Ad

Wyndham Clark 1pt EW 175/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

I’ll close with Wyndham Clark who showed some very positive signs at Silverado last time out.

An opening -4/68 saw Clark tied for 10th after Thursday’s play. He eventually finished 30th, shooting -4/212 across the weekend – no disgrace in that, and the signs are there that the 27 year-old can kick on this week on a course where bombers can thrive.

6th for Driving Distance, 11th for Driving Accuracy, 3rd for Total Driving, 10th for Greens in Regulation and 2nd for Ball Striking served up by Wyndham at the Fortinet are the most consistent set of traditional tee-to-green statistics I have ever seen from the Scottsdale, Arizona resident. That translated to 4.87 Strokes Gained Tee to Green, which was his 3rd best ever Tee to Green number on the PGA Tour – only bettered by summer 2019 outings at the Travelers Championship and 3M Open – a stretch where he arguably played his best golf on the Tour.

So I like him on a Jackson Country Club course where back in 2017 in only his 6th professional start, he fired -6/66 to co-lead after Thursday and was still 5th at the halfway stage – he eventually finished 17th. And from a Korn Ferry perspective, 2018 saw Clark finish 17th in Mississippi (North Mississippi Classic), with 3rd (Knoxville Open) and 11th (Nashville Golf Open) coming in neighbouring Tennessee.

He’s always been the sort who suits resort-level scoring tests – indeed it was October last year where he contended across both the Shriners Open, starting Sunday in 3rd place and finishing 13th, before travelling to Bermuda where he lost in a play-off to Brian Gay. RESULT: MC

✅ Bet £/€10 Get £/€30 in free bets for new customers using code H30 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our William Hill promo code page
✅ Earliest bookmaker to publish odds most weeks on the PGA Tour and European Tour
✅ Offered 9 places each-way 1/5 odds at all 2021 Major Championships

William Hill New Customer Offer: 18+. Play safe. New customers using Promo code H30 only, Min £10/€10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply. #Ad

Si Woo Kim 2pts EW 30/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

Talor Gooch was a Monday night (UK time) withdrawal, so I will switch my attentions to Si Woo Kim.

On the basis that Sanderson Farms Championship winners tend to be talented individuals,  Si Woo undoubtedly fits like a hand in a glove. Back home on the Bermudagrass courses he loves, Si Woo sits at 48th in the OWGR right now, so a 4th PGA Tour victory this week would be great to solidify his spot at the top table of world golf and guarantee a 2022 Masters invite to boot. Bermudagrass is Si Woo’s undoubted groove, indeed he ranks Number 1 in this field for PGA Tour Bermudagrass green finishes across the past 5 years, ahead of Sungjae Im and Brian Gay.

The winner of the 2016 Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club, the 2017 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass and the American Express this year at PGA West, Si Woo is always a player I observe closely. Shorter golf courses featuring Bermudagrass or Paspalum greens are the South Korean’s domain and that is easy to see with a CV which includes 4th at the Sony Open, (Waialae 2016), a further 9th at the CareerBuilder Challenge (PGA West 2016), 2nd at the Barbasol Championship (Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail 2016), 3rd at the OHL Classic (El Camaleon 2017), 3rd at the RBC Heritage (Harbour Town 2018), and further 5th, 3rd and 2nd places at the Wyndham Championship (2019, 2020, 2021).

And the astute amongst you will also see a real liking for Champion Bermudagrass greens as 2nd at the Barbasol, plus a win, 2nd, 3rd and 5th places at Sedgefield Country Club, all came on UltraDwarf Champion. Form-wise, 29th at the BMW Championship featured a 65-66 weekend (he tied Dustin Johnson and Jason Kokrak for lowest weekend score) and 11th at the Fortinet last time out, was his best career finish at Silverado. Fascinatingly he ranked 14th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 8th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green in Napa. Shot a Sunday -5/67 (T6 best round of the day) on his last round around Jackson 12 months ago. RESULT: T8

✅ Bet £/€10 Get £/€30 in free bets for new customers using code H30 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our William Hill promo code page
✅ Earliest bookmaker to publish odds most weeks on the PGA Tour and European Tour
✅ Offered 9 places each-way 1/5 odds at all 2021 Major Championships

William Hill New Customer Offer: 18+. Play safe. New customers using Promo code H30 only, Min £10/€10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply. #Ad

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 17:45BST 27.9.21 but are naturally subject to fluctuation. Si Woo Kim added 09:40BST 28.9.21.