Sanderson Farms Championship Tips 2022

This week we move to Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship. A staple on the PGA Tour since 1994, the Sanderson Farms has been promoted from an alternate event to a full 500 Point FedEx Cup tournament, with a healthy $7.9 million on the table for the visiting players. For comparison, this week’s DP World Tour event – the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship – has a $5 million fund.

Field quality is slightly down on 2021, with the defending Sam Burns the only player from the OWGR top 20 in attendance. He sits amidst a field which contains Sepp Straka, Seamus Power, Harris English, Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala, J.T. Poston and Scott Stallings all from within the world’s top 60 in Mississippi this week.

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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Sanderson Farms Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: Despite extending the Country Club of Jackson course by 57 yards in 2018, the course doesn’t hold too many fears for PGA Tour pros. At 7,461 yards for a Par 72, length is pretty standard for these modern times, especially as it’s set on a flat property with fairways that are relatively wide by modern standards. Trees are a feature on most holes but they’re relatively sparse and the course features plenty of straight holes.

Country Club of Jackson, Jackson, Mississippi: Designer: Wilson, 1962, Fought redesign, 2008; Course Type: Resort, Long; Par: 72; Length: 7,461 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 5; Fairways: 419 Bermudagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass with Zoysiagrass, 2″; Greens: 6,200 sq.ft average Champion Ultra Dwarf Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 12ft. Scoring Average 2014: 71.47 (-0.53), Difficulty Rank 27 of 52 courses. 2015: 70.47 (-1.53), Difficulty Rank 46 of 50 courses. 2016: 71.06 (-0.94), Difficulty Rank of 34 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.83 (-0.17), Difficulty Rank of 21 of 51 courses. 2018: 71.25 (-0.75), Difficulty Rank 26 of 49 courses. 2019: 70.90 (-1.10), Difficulty Rank 26 of 41 courses. 2020: 71.08 (-0.92), Difficulty Rank 32 of 51 courses. 2021: 69.87 (-2.13), Difficulty Rank 45 of 50 courses.

Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the Country Club of Jackson and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
• Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
• East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
• Sedgefield: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:26 325:23; 350:22.
• Detroit Golf Club: 250 yards from tee: 34 yards wide; 275:34; 300:35 325:34; 350:33.
• TPC Twin Cities: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:38; 300:31; 325:30; 350:36.
• TPC Deere Run: 250 yards from tee: 41 yards wide; 275:40; 300:36 325:33; 350:30.
• TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
• Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:28; 325:24; 350:27.

Course Overview: The course is a mixture of 2 sets of 9 holes, namely Azalea and Dogwood. John Fought, who re-modelled the course in 2008, is an admirer of Donald Ross’s work and as such it’s interesting to note that green complexes on the whole are raised and have run-off areas similar to many a Ross design.

Greens are pretty average in size – 6,200 sq.ft. average – and feature UltraDwarf Champion Bermudagrass, the likes of which were found at previous tournament host course Annandale, but also feature at Congaree (2021 Palmetto Championship), Trinity Forest (2018 & 2019 HP Byron Nelson), TPC Southwind, RTJ Trail (Grand National – Barbasol Championship 2015-2017), Sedgefield (since 2012) and Quail Hollow (since the 2017 PGA Championship).

Visually the course looks quite tight and with Nick Taylor, Peter Malnati, Cody Gribble, Ryan Armour, Sebastian Munoz, Sergio Garcia and Sam Burns all ending up at least mid-division for driving accuracy when winning here, a level of respect off the tee seemed a prerequisite. However the severe “bomb and gouge” tactics of Cameron Champ worked fantastically well in 2018 as he posted, at the time, a CC of Jackson record winning score of -21/267 to beat Corey Conners by 4 shots.

The Country Club of Jackson does present a level of challenge and interestingly we’ve seen a mix of relatively fast, soft and cold / windy conditions across the past 8 renewals held here. Ultimately though, winning scores of -20/268, -19/269, -21/267, -18/270, -19/269 and -22/266 over the past 6 years highlight a tournament where low scoring and top-notch Champion Bermudagrass putting are the order of the day.

The key to contending here seems to be to unlock a relatively difficult set of par-5s – 8th most difficult for Birdie or Better Conversion in 2018 – whilst scoring well on a set of par-4s that are far easier in comparison. Taylor, Malnati, Gribble, Armour and Champ all topped the field for birdies made on their way to victories here; Munoz, Garcia and Burns were ensconced within the top 10 for birdie and better conversion, whilst only leaking 3, 5 and 4 bogeys respectively.

Sanderson Farms Championship Winners at Jackson: 2021: Sam Burns (-22); 2020: Sergio Garcia (-19); 2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18); 2018: Cameron Champ (-21); 2017: Ryan Armour (-19); 2016: Cody Gribble (-20); 2015: Peter Malnati (-18); 2014: Nick Taylor (-16).

OWGR of Winners: 2021: Burns 25; 2020: Garcia 51; 2019: Munoz 179; 2018: Champ 234.

Cut Line: 2021: -5; 2020: -3; 2019: -3; 2018: -1.

Lead Score Progression:

• 2021: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -22.
• 2020: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -19.
• 2019: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -18.
• 2018: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -17; Round 4 -21.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats | SG Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Sam Burns, Byeong Hun An, Luke List, Harris English, Trey Mullinax, Gary Woodland, J.T. Poston, Joseph Bramlett, Emiliano Grillo and Brian Stuard.

Sanderson Farms Championship Winning Prices: 2021: Burns 16/1; 2020: Garcia 70/1; 2019: Munoz 66/1; 2018: Champ 66/1; 2017: Armour 125/1; 2016: Gribble 125/1; 2015: Malnati 250/1; 2014: Taylor 400/1; 2013: Austin 125/1; 2012: Stallings 100/1; 2011: Kirk 30/1; 2010: Haas 22/1. Past 8 Renewals Average: 140/1; Overall Average: 116/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2021: Thursday: Overcast, with light showers off and on. High of 82. Wind SSE 7-12 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SE 8-13 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers. High of 81. Wind SSE 7-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with possible showers. High of 82. Wind SW 8-13 mph.
• 2020: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind NNW 7-14 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 73. Wind NE 4-8 mph in the morning, switching to NNW 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind ENE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind NNW 5-10 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 92. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended at 2:46 p.m. CT and called for the day at 5:57 p.m. Friday: Round one resumed at 7:01 a.m. Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Due to darkness, round two was suspended at 7:03 p.m. Saturday: Round two resumed at 7:30 a.m. and ended at 9:34 a.m. Third-round tee times were adjusted to be between 10:30 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. in threesomes of Nos. 1 and 10. Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind SSE 6-12 mph, with gusts to 15 mph.
• 2018: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 61. Wind NW 10-15, with gusts to 20 mph. Due to darkness, round one was suspended for the day at 6:13 p.m. and resumed at 8:20 a.m. Friday (12 players). Friday: Round one concluded at 8:41 a.m., with round two beginning as scheduled at 7:20 a.m. Light rain and cloudy. High of 61. Wind NW 10-15, with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 70. Wind W 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 83. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
• 2017: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 79. Wind SSW 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with a high of 77. Wind SSW 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: High of 58. NNW wind 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny and cool, with a high of 63. NW wind 7-12 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 86. Wind S 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 87. Wind S 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 88. Wind SSW 5-10 mph.
• 2015: Thursday: Cloudy, with showers off and on throughout the day. High of 81 degrees. Winds SSW 7-14 mph. Friday: Due to lightning, round two was suspended for the day at 4:49 p.m. Saturday: Cloudy, with rain throughout the day. High of 68 degrees, with NNE winds 10-15 mph. Play was called for the day just before 2 p.m. local time with 76 players remaining to complete the second round. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 62 degrees. NNE winds 10-15 mph. Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 66 degrees. Winds NNW 5-10 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Jackson, Mississippi is here.

Now we do see varied turf conditions from year to year here. With only 78mm of rain in September, 30 degree Celsius temperatures soon absorb that level of moisture. So with a low chance of rain pre-Thursday, I would expect firm fairways and watered, receptive greens. The difference with 12 months ago is that north-easterly winds gusting up to 20 mph will be in-play across both Thursday and Friday. Naturally this will keep a slight lid on scoring. From the weekend on, I would expect the typical birdiefest. Temperatures between 25-29 degrees Celsius this week are the norm, so green watering is assured.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Wyndham Championship / Cazoo Open (Celtic Manor), which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Byeong Hun An; 2) Vincent Norrman; 3) Zecheng Dou; 4) Will Gordon; 5) Ben Taylor; 6) Austin Eckroat; 7) Tano Goya; 8) S.H. Kim; 9) Davis Thompson; 10) Joseph Bramlett / Michael Kim; 12) Philip Knowles; 13) Kevin Yu; 14) M.J. Daffue; 15) Thomas Detry; 16) Keegan Bradley / Hayden Buckley / Emiliano Grillo / Sahith Theegala / Kyle Westmoreland; 21) Scott Harrington; 22) Justin Suh; 23) Tyler Duncan; 24) Kramer Hickok; 25) Russell Henley.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Jimmy Walker; 2) Harrison Endycott; 3) Russell Henley; 4) Trey Mullinax; 5) M.J. Daffue; 6) Will Gordon / Brian Stuard; 8) Scott Harrington / Matti Schmid; 10) Russell Knox / Carl Yuan; 12) Chez Reavie; 13) Austin Smotherman; 14) Sam Burns; 15) Lucas Glover / Scott Stallings / Kevin Yu; 18) Vaughn Taylor / Gary Woodland; 20) Brice Garnett / J.T. Poston; 22) Luke List / Kevin Roy; 24) Chesson Hadley; 25) Thomas Detry / Davis Thompson / Brendon Todd.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Byeong Hun An; 2) Vaughn Taylor; 3) Zecheng Dou; 4) Ben Griffin / Andrew Putnam; 6) Scott Stallings; 7) Sam Burns; 8) Nick Taylor; 9) J.T. Poston; 10) Taylor Moore; 11) Robby Shelton; 12) Rory Sabbatini; 13) Ryan Brehm / Patrick Rodgers; 15) Trevor Werbylo; 16) Paul Haley / Seamus Power; 18) Augusto Nunez; 19) Keegan Bradley; 20) Mackenzie Hughes; 21) Denny McCarthy / Sahith Theegala / Carl Yuan; 24) Chris Kirk; 25) Jason Dufner / Martin Laird / Chris Stroud.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Byeong Hun An; 2) Jimmy Walker; 3) Harrison Endycott; 4) Vaughn Taylor; 5) Zecheng Dou; 6) M.J. Daffue / Trey Mullinax; 8) Carl Yuan; 9) Vincent Norrman / Davis Thompson / Kevin Yu; 12) Thomas Detry; 13) Russell Henley; 14) Sam Burns / Ben Taylor; 16) Sahith Theegala; 17) Zac Blair; 18) Scott Stallings / Brian Stuard; 20) Will Gordon / Ben Griffin; 22) Scott Harrington / J.T. Poston; 24) Martin Laird; 25) Robby Shelton.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Taylor Montgomery; 2) S.H. Kim; 3) Paul Haley; 4) Harry Hall; 5) Richy Werenski; 6) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 7) Sahith Theegala; 8) Zac Blair; 9) Robby Shelton; 10) Justin Lower / Denny McCarthy; 12) Davis Thompson; 13) Wyndham Clark; 14) Nate Lashley; 15) Emiliano Grillo; 16) J.T. Poston; 17) Sam Stevens; 18) Peter Malnati / Andrew Putnam; 20) Alex Smalley / Michael Thompson; 22) Sam Burns; 23) Will Gordon / Sam Ryder; 25) Sepp Straka.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Taylor Montgomery; 2) Byeong Hun An; 3) Davis Thompson; 4) Thomas Detry; 5) Zac Blair / Harrison Endycott / Paul Haley; 8) Sahith Theegala; 9) Justin Lower / Brian Stuard; 11) Sam Burns / Zecheng Dou / Robby Shelton; 14) J.T. Poston; 15) Emiliano Grillo / Andrew Putnam / Jimmy Walker; 18) Taylor Moore / Scott Stallings; 20) Stephan Jaeger; 21) Ben Taylor; 22) Will Gordon / S.H. Kim / Trey Mullinax / Vincent Norrman / Vaughn Taylor.

For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Jackson since 2015 click here.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the traditional stats of Jackson winners since 2014 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2021, Sam Burns (-22). 315 yards (17th), 67.9% fairways (8th), 87.5% greens in regulation (1st), 34’11” proximity to hole (21st), 55.6 % scrambling (58th), 1.62 putts per GIR (11th).
• 2020, Sergio Garcia (-19). 306 yards (9th), 60.7% fairways (14th), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 31″10″ proximity to hole (6th), 66.7% scrambling (29th), 1.67 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2019, Sebastian Munoz (-18). 315 yards (4th), 51.8% fairways (36th), 79.2% greens in regulation (9th), 35″4″ proximity to hole (28th), 80.7 % scrambling (7th), 1.65 putts per GIR (11th).
• 2018, Cameron Champ (-21). 334 yards (1st), 46.4% fairways (65th), 76.4% greens in regulation (9th), 37″5″ proximity to hole (36th), 58.8 % scrambling (55th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2017, Ryan Armour (-19). 269 yards (69th), 71.4% fairways (3rd), 79.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 29″5″ proximity to hole (1st), 53.3 % scrambling (60th), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2016, Cody Gribble (-20). 312 yards (11th), 51.8% fairways (38th), 72.2% greens in regulation (29th), 36″3″ proximity to hole (31st), 80.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.56 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2015, Peter Malnati (-18). 266 yards (66th), 58.9% fairways (35th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 34″8* proximity to hole (33rd), 58.3 % scrambling (62nd), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2014, Nick Taylor (-16). 295 yards (11th), 53.6% fairways (40th), 80.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 36″4″ proximity to hole (32nd), 71.4 % scrambling (17th), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 24th, Driving Accuracy: 30th, Greens in Regulation: 7th, Proximity to Hole: 22nd, Scrambling: 36th, Putting Average 6th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2021, Sam Burns (-22). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 34th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 57th.
• 2020, Sergio Garcia (-19). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 46th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 28th.
• 2019, Sebastian Munoz (-18). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 20th, SG Around the Green: 40th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 5th.
• 2018, Cameron Champ (-21). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 21st, SG Around the Green: 42nd, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 2nd.
• 2017, Ryan Armour (-19). SG Off the Tee: 39th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 2nd.
• 2016, Cody Gribble (-20). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 28th, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 1st.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 34th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 16th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the Country Club of Jackson has set up in the past and what specific skills it requires:

Sam Burns (2021): “Yeah, this is one of my favorites all year. I think these are probably some of the best greens we play all year. I like the golf course, I like the Bermuda grass, similar to kind of what I grew up on home, kind of tree-lined fairways and so yeah I’m really excited. I don’t know what the weather looks like, I think it’s going to be okay, so I think the golf course will firm up, get firmer and faster and it will be a good test.”

Sergio Garcia (2020): “Yes, but you have to be, even playing as well as I played today, you’re still going to miss a couple of greens here and there because it’s a little tricky with the way the greens are, as fast as they are. You’re hitting to small spots because you know that if you miss your spot it’s going to run and you’re going to have a longish putt that is not easy to two-putt. Your short game still has to be good, which it has been for me, and your putter has to be good. I’ve been able to put pretty much everything together this week, and I have to do more of the same tomorrow.

I obviously knew that Peter – he finished at 18, so I knew that I needed to birdie one of the last two or three to get ahead. I actually thought I birdied 17. I hit a great putt. I thought I made it. Unfortunately I didn’t. But then I stood up on 18 and I did what I’ve been doing all week. I trusted myself. I aimed down the right side of the fairway and just hit a hard draw, really, really nice drive, actually went quite long because it was playing a little bit into the wind, and it gave me the ability to have an 8-iron into the green instead of having a 6 or something like that, and then just hit, funny enough, my last win, Augusta, well, my last win on the PGA Tour at Augusta, the 8-iron on 15, this time it was the 8-iron on 18, and to almost hit the pin again and to hit it that close, obviously it was a dream come true.”

Sebastian Munoz (2019): “Yeah, so on 6 I hit my driver left and it was unlucky enough that it hit one of the first trees and came back. So by my calculations we had like 235 front with not a lot of options in front of me. Like had to keep it low, and fairway runs on an angle. So it was really easy to hit it from the rough to the rough and have like 90 or 130 out. So I saw, it’s probably like 260 to the pin. That’s what I had the my 3-wood. If I just slice it, which is the shot I feel more comfortable with, fade instead of draw, I could give myself a chance. I saw a bounce there and just reminded me of Phil. What would Phil do? I’m like, Fortune favors the bold, so took it, believed in myself, pulled the shot, and got the up and down. Make it all worth it.

And then back on the playoff hole, all back to the beginning. Still like my heartbeat was still up. All right, calm down. We still got work to do. Still hit a good drive, and from there on. Once I notice Sungjae was over the green, all I wanted to do was kind of keep it short of the pin. I knew that’s a tough up and down. So hit the 9-iron, but it didn’t came as hot as I thought it was going to be from the rough. Left it short, and that’s not an easy chip. These Bermuda greens, they kind of check pretty fast on you. Got to be pretty bold. It’s just different way to play it.”

Cameron Champ (2018): “Obviously driver is the key out here, I think. If I hit driver well out here, like I said, it’s a very scoreable course. So I just kept hitting it as much as I could. Even if the fairways were tighter, I felt like if I was further up, even in the rough versus hitting a 3-wood being 40 yards back, I would rather be up there. I guess that’s the game plan.”

Ryan Armour (2017): “You just try. I mean, you’re not always going to be able to, but my strength is – obviously have figured this out finally – is driving it in the fairway, hitting it on the green, and trying to make putts. You get some wedges in your hand on 14 and 15, so you’re looking to make up some ground there. 13 is a good little par-3. Just have had good numbers there the last two days. Then 16, chip-in yesterday, 60-footer today. I don’t overpower a golf course. I don’t go for very many par-5s. I had a chance to go for No. 11 and I laid up. It’s just one of those making percentage choices for me.”

Cody Gribble (2016): “Well, first, being in the South, growing up on Bermuda fairways, Bermuda greens, it’s something difficult, I think. There were some places in there, I think even on 15 – I think it was 15, yeah, there’s some grain running into you. It’s not a comfortable feeling when you’re having to hit a chip that all that grain is tight going into you. That’s something I’ve been able to learn from a young age, and Randy has done a really good job helping me do that through the years. It goes down to just knowing where the pin is at on every green, and do you have a miss, knowing your misses, knowing where to miss the ball, knowing where you can’t miss the ball. I think in the last 54 holes, I’ve made one bogey, and that was on 12, and the pin was front right, and you cannot miss that ball right. I looked at Bob, and I was like – I watched Andres Romero hit a shot almost in the water left, and he was in a better position than I was 20 feet right of the hole.”

Peter Malnati (2015): “I mean, the course suits my strengths really well. Several of the par-4s I’m able to hit a short iron into. Because of the wetness, the softness of the conditions, I think that sort of neutralized the par-5s. Some of the longer hitters were probably able to get up there in two on the par-5s, but I’d say the majority of the field probably couldn’t, so the par-5s became a bit of a wedge contest, which plays right into my hands. Like I said, several of the par-4s give you a short iron; plays right into my hands. And then the two holes that you would kind of pinpoint as being longer holes, 16 and 18, I really played well all week. I hit it in the water on 16 in the first round I remember, but outside of that, I think I made nothing but pars, maybe a birdie or two even on 16 and 18. If I have a week where I’m going to take those long par-4s and play them well, I really feel like that’s the week when I’m going to be up there and be in contention, and sure enough, it was this week.”

Nick Taylor (2014): “Yeah, the finishing holes 16, 17, 18, it was a good finish. But there were some tougher holes, I think. Some scoring holes on the back nine, both par 5s you can get to the front of the green or around them. 15, I did, and I hit it 20 yards from the green. So I’m not sure if it opened the tee up, but a lot of guys hit driver into that. There were some scoring holes, but you have to hit the fairways on all the par 4s to have a chance to go at the pins because if you have the wet Bermuda, it’s tough to judge coming out of there, and the greens are so quick. So fairways are key for sure, but they’re definitely scoring.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Sanderson Farms Championship since 2014:

• 2021 – Sam Burns: Round 1: 17th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2020 – Sergio Garcia: Round 1: 17th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2019 – Sebastian Munoz: Round 1: 43rd, Round 2: 9th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2018 – Cameron Champ: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2017 – Ryan Armour: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2016 – Cody Gribble: Round 1: 101st, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2015 – Peter Malnati: Round 1: 42nd, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2014 – Nick Taylor: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 5th.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of Sanderson Farms Championship winners since 2014:

• 2021 – Sam Burns: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2020 – Sergio Garcia: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: level.
• 2019 – Sebastian Munoz: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2018 – Cameron Champ: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: level, Round 3: 4 ahead.
• 2017 – Ryan Armour: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
• 2016 – Cody Gribble: Round 1: 10 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2015 – Peter Malnati: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2014 – Nick Taylor: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 4 back.

Form of Sanderson Farms Championship winners since 2014:

• Sam Burns: 17th Tour/8th BMW/21st Northern Trust/2nd WGC St Jude.
• Sergio Garcia: MC USO/MC Safeway/66th Wyndham/MC PGA.
• Sebastian Munoz: 7th Greenbrier/43rd Northern Trust/48th Sedgefield/11th Barracuda.
• Cameron Champ: 25th Safeway/MC web.com TC/33rd Boise/16th DAP.
• Ryan Armour: MC Safeway/25th DAP/51st Boise/2nd Nationwide Children’s.
• Cody Gribble: 8th Safeway/5th Nationwide Children’s/MC Boise/MC/DAP.
• Peter Malnati: 56th Shriners/MC Fry’s Open/MC web.com TC/MC Nationwide Children’s.
• Nick Taylor: MDF McGladrey/56th Shriners/MC Fry’s Open/21st web.com Tour Championship.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2014. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2021 – Sahith Theegala – AM Wave -8/64 – 85/1.
• 2020 – Chappell/Hoffman/Munoz/Walker 2AM/2PM Split -8/64 – 125/1, 70/1, 50/1, 150/1.
• 2019 – Hoge/Poston AM/PM Split -8/64 – 80/1, 55/1.
• 2018 – Cameron Champ – AM Wave -7/65 – 55/1.
• 2017 – Armour/Clark/Landry/Shindler/Spaun 3AM/2PM -6/66 – 100/1, 150/1, 45/1, 100/1, 175/1.
• 2016 – Kevin Streelman – PM Wave -9/63 – 50/1.
• 2015 – Roberto Castro – PM Wave -10/62.
• 2014 – Sebastian Cappelen – (10th tee) -7/65.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 3 –  Sam Burns.
• 2 –  Jason Dufner, Harris English, Chris Kirk, Scott Piercy, Robert Streb, Jimmy Walker, Nick Watney.
• 1 – Ryan Armour, Keegan Bradley, Stewart Cink, Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan, Adam Hadwin, Jim Herman, Garrick Higgo, Mackenzie Hughes, Patton Kizzire, Martin Laird, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, C.T. Pan, J.T Poston, Rory Sabbatini, Scott Stallings,  Kevin Streelman, Brian Stuard, Nick Taylor, Michael Thompson, Brendon Todd, Gary Woodland.

It’s clear that up until this point the Sanderson Farms Championship has been volatile in terms of its winners since it moved to its autumn spot in the wraparound season format. Tour rookie Nick Taylor was a 400/1 shot in 2014, and although Peter Malnati had a season’s PGA Tour experience behind him, his best main Tour finish before arriving in Mississippi had been 14th in Puerto Rico 18 months earlier. Malnati scored in Mississippi at 250/1 with a few punters stumbling on him mainly because he lived down the road in Knoxville, had won on Bermudagrass greens in Brazil on the Korn Ferry Tour earlier in the season and was known for his birdie-making style in softer conditions.

Cody Gribble in 2016 was a well-backed form horse who had finished 5th in his last Korn Ferry Tour outing and a comfortable 9th on his PGA Tour debut 2 weeks prior in Napa, California. Plenty of punters scored on the Texan rookie at a rather tasty 125/1. 2017 saw Ryan Armour score his maiden PGA Tour victory at the Sanderson Farms – his build-up had included 4th at the Sedgefield-hosted Wyndham on the PGA Tour and 2nd at Ohio State GC in the Korn Ferry Playoffs. His win was again at 125/1.

2018 saw Cameron Champ deliver at 66/1. Rated by a couple of commentators as one of the best players to have been promoted from the Korn Ferry Tour, Champ had finished 25th at the season-opening Safeway Open, where he closed with a -4/68 – the joint third best Sunday round. His Korn Ferry Playoffs campaign had seen him finish a best of 16th at the DAP Championship, but Champ was undoubtedly talented, winning the Utah Championship, and backing that up with 4 top-8 finishes. He also ranked 2nd for Scoring Average, 3rd for Total Driving, 2nd for Ball Striking, 5th for All-Round across his Korn Ferry promotion season.

2019 saw Sebastian Munoz become the sixth consecutive PGA Tour maiden to win the Sanderson Farms Championship, and again at a 66/1 price-point. 2019 had seen Munoz land 4 PGA Tour top-10 finishes, jumping 119 Official World Golf Ranking spots into the bargain. The week previous he had finished like a train at the Greenbrier Classic, shooting consecutive Saturday and Sunday 66s to back-door 7th place. Tellingly he ranked 3rd for SG on Approach at the Greenbrier, in tandem with ranking in the top 7 across my 8-week rolling Strokes Gained Putting tracker.

With a slightly deeper field at the 2020 Sanderson Farms Championship, the tournament was remarkable for a 70/1 victory for Sergio Garcia. The price tells the story with Sergio, winning off immediate form of MC/MC/66/MC. Clearly with a ceiling far better than his price, Garcia was the sort you could throw in at a price, based upon nothing at all positive in the immediate build-up. Correlating course-wise, his win in the 2012 Wyndham at Sedgefield Country Club though was really concrete with the positive Champion Bermudagrass green link.

And onto 2021 where Sam Burns won his 2nd PGA Tour title, 5 months after his first, which had been the Valspar Championship at Copperhead. Burns at 16/1 had been joint favourite with Will Zalatoris, and arrived with form which read 17th at the Tour Championship – 8th at the BMW Championship – 21st at the Northern Trust and 2nd at the WGC St Jude Invitational held on the Champion Bermudagrass greens of TPC Southwind.

My selections are as follows:

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:10BST 26.9.22 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.