Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Soudal Open Tips 2026

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The DP World Tour heads back to mainland Europe after the US PGA Championship this week, with the Soudal Open kicking off a 3-event stretch before we break again for the US Open. Talking of the US Open, a large number of players from this week’s field were involved in the qualifier on Monday over at Walton Heath – results will be posted here once available.

This is the fifth renewal of the Soudal Open, an event that picked up the reins from the Belgian Knockout which was Belgium’s premier event held here at Rinkven International Golf Club in 2018 & 2019. Whereas the Belgian Knockout was one of the Tour’s forays into new, exciting formats – combining 36 holes of strokeplay with a series of 9-hole knockout matches over the weekend – the Soudal Open is a regular 72 holes of strokeplay with a full field of 156 players.

Thomas Detry heads this week’s market at a best-priced 12/1, despite missing the cut last week at Aronimink as a well-fancied outsider. Daniel Hillier and Jose Luis Ballester follow in the betting before we move out to the likes of Jayden Schaper, Oliver Lindell and Hennie du Plessis at around the 25/1 mark.

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Course Overview. The Course at Rinkven is a parkland affair originally designed by Paul Rolin in 1985 and subsequently updated by Martin Hawtree. Some holes are tree-lined whilst others are exposed, however it’s generally a flat, scoreable track.

The layout played is a composite of the North and South courses, measuring 6,940 yards for its par of 71, and is the same routing as we saw in 2022-25 as well as at the Belgian Knockout events hosted here.

The front 9 is slightly longer than the back 9 with a solitary par-5 on both halves, however the short par-4s at the 11th and 16th both generally play easier than the long 17th and present eagle and birdie opportunities to those who were aggressive on those holes. Just 3 par-3s explains the par of 71, with 13 par-4s overall for the players to tackle.

The greens are Poa Annua-based, but overseeded with Bentgrass each year to achieve the desired playing surface of 80% Bentgrass, 20% Poa.

soudal open tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who might go well this week.

Course stats include results from the 7 events held here at Rinkven since 2010: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats | SG Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Course Winners. Soudal Open: 2025, Kristoffer Reitan, 125/1; 2024, Nacho Elvira, 100/1;  2023: Simon Forsstrom, 200/1; 2022: Sam Horsfield, 22/1; Belgian Knockout: 2019: Adrian Otaegui; 2018: Guido Migliozzi; Telenet Trophy (Challenge Tour): 2010: Lee Slattery.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

A generally dry 4 days are expected this week with sunny spells at times. With the wind coming from the east, temperatures will be up on last year’s renewal with 28 Centigrade (82 Fahrenheit) expected over the weekend. Wind will be light with 5-10mph likely throughout the tournament days.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. The last four Soudal Opens give us a starting point for this week, with the winners producing the following core statistics:

  • 2025: Kristoffer Reitan (-13). 41.7% fairways (61st), 70.8% greens in regulation (17th), 61.9% scrambling (31st), 1.65 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2024: Nacho Elvira (-18). 60% fairways (40th), 76.4% greens in regulation (11th), 76.5% scrambling (18th), 1.60 putts per GIR (5th).
  • 2023: Simon Forsstrom (-17). 53.3% fairways (62nd), 73.6% greens in regulation (16th), 84.2% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (24th).
  • 2022: Sam Horsfield (-13). 46.7% fairways (58th), 70.8% greens in regulation (15th), 81% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (13th).

Accuracy off the tee didn’t prove pivotal here in any of the renewals, with performance from the second shot and in much more important. With 18-24 a typical number of missed greens on the week for those contending near the top of the leaderboard, the ability to get up and down with regularity seems critical.

Digging beneath the numbers from the two Belgian Knockout events gives us more history to peruse for this week. Analysing the final stats of the top 2 after the 36-hole strokeplay element gives us a little more insight into this test:

  • 2019: Chris Paisley (-12). 66.7 % fairways (16th), 72.2% greens in regulation (42nd), 80.0% scrambling (11th), 1.58 putts per GIR (5th).
  • 2018: Jorge Campillo (-8). 73.3% fairways (1st), 80.6% greens in regulation (5th), 28.6% scrambling (87th), 1.66 putts per GIR (12th).

Looking at the same 36-hole data for the eventual winners gives us another angle:

  • 2019: Guido Migliozzi. 60.0% fairways (34th), 86.1% greens in regulation (2nd), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (64th).
  • 2018: Adrian Otaegui. 60.0% fairways (28th), 69.4% greens in regulation (35th), 54.5% scrambling (25th), 1.76 putts per GIR (50th).

Of course these numbers exclude the Matchplay element so the sample sizes are small, however the requirement to either hit greens or save bogeys when you don’t is at least fairly consistent.

Rinkven GC was also used for the Telenet Trophy on the Challenge Tour in 2010, won by Lee Slattery (final leaderboard is here) with a 21-under total. Although there were 4 par-5s on the course at the time, it was the par-4s that proved pivotal for Slattery 16 years ago as he finished -11 for those holes over the course of the week. Runner-up Edouard Dubois led the field for par-4 scoring at -13 on the week, and although we’re playing a different course routing now, the requirement for par-4 scoring was evident again over the past 4 years:

  • 2025: Kristoffer Reitan: Par 3, -2; Par 4, –10; Par 5, -1.
  • 2024: Nacho Elvira: Par 3, -3; Par 4, -12; Par 5, -3.
  • 2023: Simon Forsstrom: Par 3, Level; Par 4, -14; Par 5, -3.
  • 2022: Sam Horsfield: Par 3, -2; Par 4, -8; Par 5, -3.

Strokes Gained: There’s a similar caveat with the SG numbers that were captured in 2019 only, in that they are from the first 36 holes before the Matchplay element began. Some correlation is evident though with 36-hole leader Chris Paisley ranking 2nd for SG Tee to Green behind eventual winner Guido Migliozzi:

2019 – 36 Hole Leader:

  • 1st, Chris Paisley: T: 45th; A: 4th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 17th; P: 5th

2019 – Overall Winner:

  • 1st, Guido Migliozzi: T: 1st; A: 35th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 48th; P: 76th

With SG stats captured from all four Soudal Opens, SG Approach and SG Tee to Green were the most consistent metrics, with Forsstrom and Reitan also excelling Around the Green, and Horsfield & Elvira in terms of Putting:

2022-25 – Soudal Opens:

  • 2025, Kristoffer Reitan: T: 10th; A: 21st; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 6th; P: 28th
  • 2024, Nacho Elvira: T: 43rd; A: 12th; T2G: 22nd; ATG: 34th; P: 3rd
  • 2023, Simon Forsstrom: T: 38th; A: 13th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 1st; P: 27th
  • 2022, Sam Horsfield: T: 51st; A: 3rd; T2G: 12th; ATG: 32nd; P: 5th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Looking at the same players who finished ahead after 36 holes over the 2 Belgian knockout events, we see some solid recent form trends:

  • 2019, Chris Paisley: 34/24/18/MC/56/24/9/48/57/38/MC/4
  • 2018, Jorge Campillo: 35/27/MC/12/14/MC/2/4/27/5/46/3

Similarly, eventual 2018 winner Adrian Otaegui was also in a rich vein of form coming into this event with 5 consecutive top-20 finishes to his name and a runner-up finish in China behind Alexander Bjork on his previous start, whereas 2019 winner Guido Migliozzi had won the Kenya Open earlier in the season and hadn’t missed a cut since.

2022 winner Sam Horsfield had returned from a 3-month absence due to injury the week before his victory, finishing 21st at the British Masters. Prior to that, 12th in Abu Dhabi and 4th in Dubai had signalled some good form in stronger fields. 2023 winner Simon Forsstrom was a little tougher to find, although there were 3 top-10 finishes in his previous 11 starts to encourage punters and a second round 67 the week before in Italy tied the best round of the day.

2024 winner Nacho Elvira had finished runner-up at the Kenya Open earlier in the year before recording three humdrum finishes on less suitable courses before winning here, and to complete the picture Kristoffer Reitan had finished runner-up at the Hainan Classic 4 weeks before winning here 12 months ago:

  • 2025, Kristoffer Reitan: 47/MC/36/24/14/MC/MC/MC/31/69/2/33
  • 2024, Nacho Elvira: 3/43/50/28/41/16/MC/13/2/44/51/56
  • 2023, Simon Forsstrom: 29/9/50/MC/4/MC/58/62/8/60/MC/32
  • 2022, Sam Horsfield: MC/15/35/64/MC/12/44/9/12/4/WD/21
  • 2019, Guido Migliozzi: MC/MC/56/MC/MC/63/MC/1/41/25/32/35/33
  • 2018, Adrian Otaegui: 12/73/60/42/40/22/39/12/10/12/19/2

Course Form: Rinkven form of our winners prior to their victory here was as follows:

  • 2025, Kristoffer Reitan: 21/MC
  • 2024, Nacho Elvira: 12/9/MC
  • 2023, Simon Forsstrom: Debut
  • 2022, Sam Horsfield: 41/61
  • 2019, Guido Migliozzi: Debut
  • 2018, Adrian Otaegui: Debut

With so many of this week’s field in action on Monday at Walton Heath, fatigue after 36 holes and travel/preparation time for this week’s event from those who were involved could be a factor, although conversely those who showed some form could bring forward momentum with others in this field not having played competitively since before the PGA Championship.

My selections are as follows:

Calum Hill 2pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

The dilemma this week is how much credence we give to the 36-hole US Open qualifiers that are happening (or have happened, depending when you’re reading this) on Monday.

Over a third of this week’s field were involved at Walton Heath and various arguments can be made for backing players who did or didn’t play, and of those who played, who performed the best. 36 holes on a Monday before hopping from England to Belgium might not sound ideal, but for some players if they find their game then perhaps it can be taken as a positive.

Last year, Kristoffer Reitan tied for 24th at Walton Heath before winning here in Belgium, so it can be done. Jordan Smith was the medallist on the Monday before finishing in a tie for 4th from a position at the top of the market, finishing alongside Haotong Li who also finished 24th in Surrey. The other five players who finished inside the top 8 all swerved the Monday’s festivities, two of whom could quite conceivably have won the Soudal Open given they were involved in the 3-man play-off.

The net of all of this is inconclusive, however I’m of the opinion that 36 holes on a Monday in another country isn’t ideal, so I’ve backed four players who weren’t involved, headlined by Calum Hill.

The 31 year-old is twice a winner now on the DP World Tour, with winning totals of 19- and 14-under from his 2021 Cazoo Classic and 2025 Joburg Open victories encompassing where I expect the winning score to be this week.

2026 has been positive if a little frustrating for the Scot, having lost in a play-off in Bahrain before finishing 2nd again the following week in Qatar, however if nothing else it shows that he’s been playing some nice golf with the putter in particular performing way ahead of his long-term norm. 6th last time out in India was positive on a tough course, and he comes into this week rested and fresh compared to those who flew back from America over the weekend and of course those involved at Walton Heath.

18th here on debut back in 2024 was encouraging given that his opening round of 70 left him the wrong side of the cut line, and Hill ended the week positive in each Strokes Gained category to suggest that there’s further improvement to come here.

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Yurav Premlall 1.5pts EW 55/1 (6EW, 1/5) with SpreadEx

Now anyone who can recall the eye-watering price that Yurav Premlall went off at in Spain last time out may well baulk at the odds on offer this week about the 22 year-old prodigy, however the manner of his victory simply cannot be ignored.

It remains to be seen whether the South African’s 14-stroke victory at the Catalunya Championship was a flash in the pan – albeit one incredibly bright flash at that – however being seen as one of the biggest prospects when he won on the Big Easy Tour as a 15 year-old back in 2019, perhaps it’s just taken him a little longer than expected to move to the next level.

The manner of his victory a fortnight ago cannot be overstated: after an opening round of 70, Yurav shot rounds 64,63,63 to threaten the record winning margin held by Tiger Woods, and with his DP World Tour card sewn up for the immediate future courtesy of that win, perhaps he can target a PGA Tour card instead.

Certainly there’s precedent for talented sorts striking in quick succession, and in particular we’ve seen South Africans achieve that feat more than most. Branden Grace broke his maiden at the 2012 Joburg Open before winning the Volvo Golf Champions the following week. Jayden Schaper repeated that feat in December of last year, winning the Alfred Dunhill Championship before following up in Mauritius the week after. Casey Jarvis then emulated his fellow countrymen earlier this year, winning both the Kenya Open and South African Open in consecutive starts. Don’t say I didn’t warn you!

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Daniel Rodrigues 1.5pts EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

I’m backing Daniel Rodrigues for the first time this week with the Portuguese star having impressed in his first few starts as a DP World Tour rookie.

From just 13 starts this season, the 23 year-old is already approaching €400k in prize money and sits in a solid 31st position in the Race to Dubai, fuelled by a string of solid finishes as well as 6th at the Hainan Classic and 2nd on his penultimate start in Turkey where he co-led with eventual winner Mikael Lindberg heading into the final day.

A final day 71 in Antalya was no disgrace and Daniel should have gathered some useful experience for the next time he finds himself in contention, which could well be as early as this week.

As an average 296 yard driver of the golf ball which is below average in the modern game, shorter set-ups such as this which rely less on Par-5 Scoring should suit better than other tracks, and he’s consistently proving that he can quickly get his head around these courses on his first attempt. Not being involved at Walton Heath can only help in that respect, with many of his peers arriving late and jaded after a busy 36 holes on Monday.

In isolation we’ve seen all aspects of his game perform well in recent weeks, having led the field for SG Approach and ranking 3rd for SG Tee to Green at the Hainan Classic, before gaining over 8 shots on the greens in Turkey and ranking 3rd in the field on that count. If he puts it all together this week then he could go very close.

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Andy Sullivan 1pt EW 90/1 (6EW, 1/5) with BetMGM

Finally, if we’re looking for players who could take inspiration from Aaron Rai’s victory at Aronimink, then perhaps Andy Sullivan is one of the most likely candidates.

Hailing from Nuneaton to Rai’s Wolverhampton, the two Midlanders have rubbed shoulders on the circuit over the years and in many ways have – or at least had – a similar profile until Rai stepped up to win the 2024 Wyndham Championship before trumping that in style last week in Philadelphia.

As a fellow mid-length hitter at best, Sullivan’s best efforts have tended to come on shorter, parkland affairs and this sub-7,000 yard Rinkven layout has always set up nicely for Sullivan, who celebrates his 39th birthday on Tuesday. Of his four attempts here in Belgium, 9th on debut in 2022 and 11th last year are by far his best efforts, and in both instances he headed into the Sunday on the fringes of serious contention.

2026 has been patchy and inconsistent, but let’s take the positives for what they are – 2nd at the Dubai Desert Classic at Rolex Series level was an excellent result at a far higher level than this, and finishes of 9th and 3rd at the Hainan Classic and Indian Open in March demonstrate that he’s been in decent nick quite recently, even if his results have tailed off since.

Rounds of 72/73 last week at Aronimink means that fatigue won’t be a factor this week, particularly as he didn’t play at Walton Heath on Monday either, and at 12th for SG Putting for the season to date and the promise of a lower-scoring week, he should be in good shape to attack this week.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:15BST 18.5.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.