Si Woo Kim popped-up again on a short, Bermudagrass-greened course last week at a Monday best price of 45/1 with Unibet. That was the South Korean’s 4th victory on the PGA Tour and his 4th victory on Bermudagrass greens. Congratulations if you were on-board.
Low scoring is the key this week as the PGA Tour reaches California for The American Express at PGA West. It was latterly known as the Desert Classic or CareerBuilder Challenge, but I’ll always remember this as the Bob Hope Classic. It used to be played over 4 courses and 5 days as a Pro-Am, but 2023 sees a 156-man, 3 course rota, Pro-Am format. Course-wise we have host course PGA West Stadium, the PGA West Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club. Low scoring yet again will be the order of the day and we could well see something around the mid-20s under par being needed to grab the boosted $1,440,000 first prize and a coveted Masters invite for those who haven’t received a letter through the post recently.
Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Tom Kim, Cameron Young and Sungjae Im play from inside the OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings) top 20 in the Californian desert this week, in what is undoubtedly a stronger field than we usually see here.
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Course Guide: A 3-course rotation always makes this a unique proposition on the PGA Tour, especially with the Pro-Am format. The PGA West facility hosts 3 of the 4 rounds at the Stadium Course (Host Course) and Tournament courses. The PGA West Stadium course hosts 36 holes, including the final round. A 5 mile drive is required to the 3rd course in the tournament rotation, namely La Quinta Country Club. This tournament is the ultimate resort course challenge with 3 short Par-72 courses featuring extremely receptive and pure TifDwarf Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis green complexes.
Pete Dye Stadium Course, PGA West, Palm Springs, California: Designer: Pete Dye, 1986; Course Type: Desert, Resort, Short; Par: 72; Length: 7,187 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 7; Fairways Tifgreen Bermudagrass with Ryegrass; Rough: Tifgreen Bermudagrass 2″; Greens: 5,000 sq.ft average featuring TifDwarf Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis overseed; Stimpmeter: 11ft; Course Scoring Average 2016: 70.82 (-1.18), Difficulty Rank 41 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.59 (-0.41), Difficulty Rank 30 of 50 courses. 2018: 71.18 (-0.82), Difficulty Rank 36 of 51 courses. 2019: 70.24 (-1.76), Difficulty Rank 40 of 49 courses. 2020: 70.36 (-1.64), Difficulty Rank 36 of 41 courses. 2021: 70.81 (-1.19), Difficulty Rank 36 of 51 courses. 2022: 70.57 (-1.43), Difficulty Rank 37 of 50 courses.
Tournament Course, PGA West: Designer: Jack Nicklaus, 1987; Par: 72; Length: 7,147 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 5; Fairways Ryegrass; Rough: Forman Bermudagrass, 2″; Greens: 7,000 sq.ft average featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis overseed; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2016: 68.94 (-3.06), Difficulty Rank 49 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.74 (-1.26), Difficulty Rank 39 of 50 courses. 2018: 69.45 (-2.55), Difficulty Rank 50 of 51 courses. 2019: 69.06 (-2.94), Difficulty Rank 48 of 49 courses. 2019: 70.24 (-1.76), Difficulty Rank 40 of 49 courses. 2020: 69.24 (-2.77), Difficulty Rank 40 of 41 courses. 2021: 70.95 (-1.05), Difficulty Rank 36 of 51 courses. 2022: 70.26 (-1.74), Difficulty Rank 39 of 50 courses.
La Quinta Country Club, La Quinta: Designer: Lawrence Hughes, with Pascuzzo re-design, 1999: Par 72; Length: 7,060 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 7; Fairways Bermudagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass, 1.75″; Greens: 4,773 sq.ft Poa Trivialis with Ryegrass overseed; Stimp: 11.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 70.68 (-1.32), Difficulty Rank 41 of 49 courses. 2013: 69.49 (-2.51), Difficulty Rank 41 of 43 courses. 2017: 69.64 (-2.36), Difficulty Rank 49 of 50 courses. 2018: 68.83 (-3.17), Difficulty Rank 51 of 51 courses. 2019: 68.72 (-3.28), Difficulty Rank 49 of 49 courses. 2020: 69.18 (-2.82), Difficulty Rank 41 of 41 courses. 2022: 69.92 (-2.08), Difficulty Rank 43 of 50 courses.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus designs include:
Pete Dye:
Austin Country Club – WGC Dell Matchplay since 2016
Whistling Straits – 2010 and 2015 PGA Championship
Jack Nicklaus:
Annandale Golf Club – Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013
Glen Abbey – RBC Canadian Open – 2008, 2013, 2015-2018
Montreux Golf & Country Club – Barracuda Championship through 2019
Old Greenwood GC – Barracuda Championship 2020 onwards
PGA National – The Honda Classic
PGA West – Nicklaus Private – Humana Challenge through 2015
Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – World Challenge through 2013 + 2020 ZOZO Championship
Valhalla Golf Club – 2014 PGA Championship
Muirfield Village – The Memorial Tournament
Pete Dye Stadium Course Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course (host) and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
Course Overview: 2023 sees The American Express play to its standard Pro-Am format with a field of 156 professionals teamed with 156 amateurs.
The American Express follows a Pro-Am format similar to the AT&T Pebble Beach, but with the Pro-Am being played across the first 3 days of competition as opposed to all 72 holes. A cut is then made for the final round at the Stadium Course venue, with the top 65 players and ties playing Sunday. A 156-player field allied to the pro-am nature makes for painfully slow play which some players can’t handle.
Since 2012, in terms of the Pro-Am format (2021 saw no Pro-Am with Covid restrictions), this tournament has played a 3-course rota over 72 holes. 2016 saw the PGA West Stadium Course added to the rota as the host course (36 holes including the final round) and the Nicklaus Tournament Course was also added for the very first time. Stadium hosted a round of the Bob Hope Classic back in 1987 and has been home to the PGA Tour Q-School numerous times including 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2012. The Nicklaus-designed Tournament Course shared hosting duties across these Q-Schools as well.
The Stadium host course is a Pete Dye design and is viewed by many as the sequel to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. The course features its own island 17th hole which will play as a 165 yard par-3 this week. The Stadium Course will play to a stretched 7,187 yard, Par 72 and has plenty of water in-play. With a scoring average of 70.57 in 2022 it had a difficulty rank of 37 of 50 courses on the PGA Tour last season, in comparison to 39th for the Tournament Course, whilst La Quinta was the easiest course on rota ranking 43rd for difficulty – or 8th easiest – last season.
Statistically Stadium is an interesting course where flagrant power is seemingly negated a little. The par-5s play relatively tough, especially compared to both the par-4s which yield plenty of birdies. With so much water in play, brute power alone doesn’t work here – instead crisp wedge play from within 125 yards is critical. Scrambling on the course is easy for these PGA Tour pros and the TifDwarf Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis greens are pure enough that One-Putt Percentages are always in the top 6 on the PGA Tour.
This tournament is a testament to US resort-style golf – go low or go home, it’s that simple. Since 2012 when the tournament moved to a conventional 72-hole format, -24/264, -25/263, -29/259, -22/266, -25/263, -20/268, -22/266, -26/262, -26/262, -23/265 and -23/265 have been the winning totals. Birdie or better conversion rates at 36% (2012), 38% (2013), an astonishing 44% (2014 by Patrick Reed), 32% (2015), 42%, 36%, 38%, 36%, 43%, 33% and 42% last year are traditionally some of the highest we see all year.
The American Express Winners: 2022: Hudson Swafford (-23); 2021: Si Woo Kim (-23); 2020: Andrew Landry (-26); 2019: Adam Long (-26); 2018: Jon Rahm (-22); 2017: Hudson Swafford (-20); 2016: Jason Dufner (-25); 2015: Bill Haas (-22); 2014: Patrick Reed (-29); 2013: Brian Gay (-25); 2012: Mark Wilson (-24).
OWGR of The American Express Winners: 2022: Swafford 166: 2021: Si Woo Kim 96; 2020: Landry 240; 2019: Long 417; 2018: Rahm 3; 2017: Swafford 204.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats | SG Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are:- Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Tom Hoge, Tony Finau, Si Woo Kim, Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler, Brian Harman, Sungjae Im and Jason Day.
For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.
Historical Weather:
2022: Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High of 75. Wind NNW 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 74. Wind NNW 20-25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 70. Wind NNW 14-18 mph, gusting to 28 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 76. Wind NNW 8-13 mph, gusting to 20 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 75. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 67. Wind SSE 8-12 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. High of 62. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 64. Wind NW 7-14 mph.
2020: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 68. Wind SE at 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 68. Wind NE 4-8 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 72. Wind E 3-6 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 77. Wind ESE 3-6 mph.
2019: Thursday: Mostly cloudy and rainy. High of 66. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Due to fog, play at La Quinta Country Club was delayed one hour (9:30 a.m. start) and delayed at the Stadium and Nicklaus Tournament Courses one hour, 15 minutes (9:45 a.m. start). Friday: Sunny. High of 74. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 75. Wind light and variable 4-8 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 74. Wind SE 4-8 mph.
2018: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 78. Wind variable 4-8 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 78. Wind variable 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 65. Wind NW 20-30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 66. Wind variable 4-8 mph.
2017: Thursday: Overcast, with light morning rain. Mostly sunny in the afternoon, with a high of 64. Wind W 8-15 mph. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 61. Wind NE to SSE 8-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 63. Wind NW 10-15 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Sunday: Cloudy, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 61. Wind SSE 8-15 mph.
2016: Thursday: Clear skies with an afternoon high of 74 degrees. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 73 degrees. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 71 degrees. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with an afternoon high of 82 degrees. Wind NW 7-15 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for La Quinta, California is here.
Weather in the main looks okay for The American Express, although there are some twists. It’s raining in the Californian desert on Monday morning, so expect to see lush conditions on the fairways. Greens are always watered and responsive here. There’s little wind in the forecast except for a 10-15 mph north-easterly on Friday. Added to the lush conditions another slight twist will be the cold conditions this week, which look to be 11 degrees Celsius on Thursday and between 14-16 degrees Celsius across the other 3 days of play.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the CJ Cup / Mallorca Golf Open, which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Taylor Pendrith / Will Zalatoris; 3) Rickie Fowler; 4) Kevin Yu; 5) Tony Finau; 6) Will Gordon; 7) Jon Rahm / Scottie Scheffler; 9) M.J. Daffue; 10) Joel Dahmen; 11) Cameron Young; 12) Ben Griffin; 13) Patrick Cantlay; 14) Wyndham Clark / Trevor Cone / Cam Davis / Tom Kim; 18) J.T. Poston / Xander Schauffele; 20) Dean Burmester / Kevin Tway; 22) Keith Mitchell / Sam Stevens; 24) Thomas Detry / Brian Harman.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Tony Finau / K.H. Lee; 3) Russell Knox; 4) Tom Kim / Ben Taylor / Cameron Young / Carl Yuan; 8) Si Woo Kim; 9) Tom Hoge / Martin Laird / Jon Rahm; 12) Rickie Fowler; 13) Patrick Rodgers; 14) Ryan Armour / Cam Davis; 16) Adam Hadwin; 17) Sung Kang; 18) Joseph Bramlett / Scottie Scheffler; 20) Davis Riley / Nick Taylor; 22) Eric Cole / Callum Tarren; 24) Will Zalatoris; 25) Patrick Cantlay.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Jon Rahm; 2) Xander Schauffele; 3) James Hahn; 4) Martin Laird; 5) Patrick Cantlay; 6) Eric Cole; 7) K.H. Lee / Aaron Wise; 9) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Will Zalatoris; 11) Andrew Novak; 12) Andrew Putnam; 13) Tano Goya; 14) Rickie Fowler; 15) Tom Kim / Scottie Scheffler; 17) Luke List; 18) Sahith Theegala; 19) Tony Finau / Michael Thompson; 21) Dean Burmester / Callum Tarren; 23) Zac Blair / Greyson Sigg / Cam Young.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Jon Rahm; 2) Tony Finau / Rickie Fowler; 4) Tom Kim; 5) K.H. Lee / Ben Taylor; 7) Scottie Scheffler / Callum Tarren / Cameron Young; 10) Wyndham Clark / Martin Laird; 12) Si Woo Kim; 13) Brian Harman / Will Zalatoris; 15) Patrick Cantlay; 16) Will Gordon; 17) Cam Davis; 18) Joel Dahmen; 19) Greyson Sigg; 20) James Hahn / Luke List; 22) Patrick Rodgers; 23) Ben Griffin / J.T. Poston; 25) Aaron Wise.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Thomas Detry; 2) Patrick Cantlay / Tony Finau; 4) Aaron Wise; 5) Jon Rahm; 6) Will Zalatoris; 7) Justin Rose; 8) Beau Hossler / Andrew Landry; 10) Andrew Putnam; 11) Austin Eckroat; 12) Harry Hall / Xander Schauffele; 14) Aaron Baddeley / Taylor Montgomery; 16) Brian Gay; 17) K.H. Lee; 18) Callum Tarren / Sahith Theegala; 20) S.H. Kim / Chris Kirk; 22) Denny McCarthy / Ben Taylor; 24) Anders Albertson / Brian Harman / Taylor Moore / Patrick Rodgers / Danny Willett.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Jon Rahm; 2) Joel Dahmen; 3) Thomas Detry / Will Zalatoris; 5) Cameron Young / Scottie Scheffler; 7) Patrick Rodgers; 8) Aaron Wise; 9) Patrick Cantlay / Brian Harman; 11) Tony Finau; 12) Martin Laird; 13) K.H. Lee / Xander Schauffele; 15) Wyndham Clark; 16) Cam Davis; 17) Greyson Sigg; 18) Tom Kim / Taylor Montgomery; 20) Adam Hadwin / Si Woo Kim; 22) Will Gordon / Carl Yuan; 24) Aaron Baddeley / Andrew Putnam / Alex Smalley.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at the host PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course since 2016 click here.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of Amex winners since it moved to the host Stadium Course in 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2022, Hudson Swafford (-23). SG Off the Tee: 45th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 25th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 2nd.
2021, Si Woo Kim (-23). SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 16th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 8th.
2020, Andrew Landry (-26). SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 65th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 6th.
2019, Adam Long (-26). SG Off the Tee: 40th, SG Approach: 43rd, SG Around the Green: 30th, SG Tee to Green: 46th, SG Putting: 9th.
2018, Jon Rahm (-22). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 60th, SG Tee to Green: 12th, SG Putting: 28th.
2017, Hudson Swafford (-20). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 71st, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 44th.
2016, Jason Dufner (-25). SG Off the Tee: 26th, SG Approach: 42nd, SG Around the Green: 8th, SG Tee to Green: 23rd, SG Putting: 14th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 16th, SG Around the Green: 39th, SG Tee to Green: 16th, SG Putting: 16th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Amex winners since it moved to the host Stadium Course in 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2022, Hudson Swafford (-23). 307 yards (13th), 64.3% fairways (37th), 72.2% greens in regulation (21st), 36’3″ proximity to hole (38th), 75.0 % scrambling (20th), 1.58 putts per GIR (5th).
2021, Si Woo Kim (-23). 300 yards (29th), 73.2% fairways (16th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 30’2″ proximity to hole (15th), 84.6 % scrambling (4th), 1.61 putts per GIR (11th).
2020, Andrew Landry (-26). 286 yards (61st), 75.0% fairways (3rd), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 27’11” proximity to hole (16th), 76.5 % scrambling (25th), 1.46 putts per GIR (1st).
2019, Adam Long (-26). 291 yards (28th), 69.6% fairways (12th), 70.8% greens in regulation (41st), 29’5″ proximity to hole (30th), 85.7 % scrambling (7th), 1.51 putts per GIR (1st).
2018, Jon Rahm (-22). 310 yards (5th), 64.3% fairways (28th), 72.2% greens in regulation (20th), 328″ proximity to hole (31st), 75.0 % scrambling (21st), 1.56 putts per GIR (8th).
2017, Hudson Swafford (-20). 307 yards (5th), 55.4% fairways (61st), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 30’2″ proximity to hole (27th), 71.4 % scrambling (30th), 1.66 putts per GIR (24th).
2016, Jason Dufner (-25). 290 yards (49th), 75.0% fairways (5th), 75.0% greens in regulation (15th), 30’6″ proximity to hole (20th), 72.2 % scrambling (40th), 1.54 putts per GIR (5th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 27th, Driving Accuracy: 23rd, Greens in Regulation: 15th, Proximity to Hole: 25th, Scrambling: 21st, Putting Average 8th.
So let’s take a view from players as to how the American Express sets up with the Stadium Course as host plus what skill sets the course favours:
Hudson Swafford (2022): “Yeah, I don’t know what the weather’s going to be like tomorrow, but you got to be patient, anything can happen here, last year I bogeyed the first hole, I was 1-over through the first six, I think I was six shots back when I was in the last group and played pretty flawless golf after that, bogey-free 6-under from there. So anything can happen. You give yourself chances, you can make some birdies out here. It is a little visually intimidating, so the fat side of the green’s not always terrible out here and that’s kind of going to be my game plan and just don’t have to come out and try to birdie every hole early, just kind of plod along.
I’ve fallen in love with this place. This is kind of my West Coast home, honestly. We base ourselves kind of out of the Hideaway just across the street. We have now, this is our 8th year. I come out here early before Sony, get some work in, get ready. I enjoy the weather here. I enjoy the grass. It’s all Bermuda grass. It’s what I grew up on. I don’t know why here. It just clicks. I see the lines on the greens pretty well here and I got a lot of confidence and a lot of good memories here, so I can pull on that and keep going.”
Si Woo Kim (2021): ” Yeah, I have great memories with this course. So for Q-School, I passed the Q-School on this course, and then I have great memories and then that’s why I feel confidence whenever I come to this course. So that helps a lot for me this week, especially I try to focus on the memories that gave me good scores, so that’s why it drove me to the win.”
“So on the back nine there’s a lot of birdie chances and I had to know what’s going on, so that helps me how to play my game the final round. So I kept watching the leaderboard. I knew that Cantlay played really well. So I knew I have a lot of chances on the back nine for birdies, so I tried to keep patient and I believed in myself and I got the chance on 16 and 17 and that’s when I could make it and I’m happy with that.”
Andrew Landry (Nicklaus Course): “I like that atmosphere over there, there’s some good holes, there’s some mediocre holes, you just got to drive the ball well out there, you got to hit your irons very well out there and you got to play smart, because there’s some par-5s out there that can jump up and bite you if you’re not playing smart. So we got a good game plan for it, we played well there in the past, and now we’ll see what happens tomorrow.
The key to this week has been good putting. I’ve been putting the ball absolutely beautifully and just kind of everything’s been there, my wedge play has been there, I hit some really good wedges. I went to a 54 degree this week instead of a playing a 52, 60 and it’s just kind of given me that 105 to 115 number just a lot better. And I’ve had it three or four times and I’ve hit every one of them gimmie. So the wedges are there, the putting’s there, just need to go out and go do it again tomorrow.”
Adam Long: “I had some pretty good hopes, I guess, because I played well in my practice rounds and made a lot of birdies and felt pretty good leading up to Thursday, so I would have been surprised had I not had a good start. But yeah, it’s three awesome golf courses and you hit fairways and greens and you can make a lot of putts because these greens on all three courses are just perfect. So you can make them from all over.I played here for Q-School in 2011, so, yeah, it’s been a bit. I think a junior tournament too before that. But been here a few times, but it’s a great place to play golf and, yeah, I’ve had good mojo here and hope to keep it going.”
Jon Rahm: “This area, the courses are always in really, really good shape, so it’s tough to pick one. But just because I’m familiar with it I would say the Nicklaus, just because I played it, I mean, this would be about my ninth round on this golf course, so I know it pretty good. But again, I feel like any other person, when you have a good day, any course is fit for you. It’s about making good shots. Well, yeah, I mean I’ve been living in this area for five years and most of the college tournaments we played was around here, so exactly, we played here – we played the Norman course as well – I’m just familiar with this type of golf course.
The Stadium Course, it’s a Pete Dye design, where I played four years of my life, it’s a Pete Dye design. Very, very similar type of golf. You need to hit it a lot more accurate off the tee because being in the fairway is a lot more important. With the small greens, you have water in play, you need to be more precise, clearly the hardest golf course. If you can have 5- or 6-under there you’re going to pick up a lot of shots. So hopefully have an organized round like I did yesterday, not have to fight too much to shoot under par.”
Hudson Swafford (Stadium): “Absolutely, yeah, no, this is a tough golf course. When you come to the desert, all you think is birdies, usually the scores yield birdies. But this Stadium Course has kind of changed that. I know there is a lot of good rounds out here, but one errant shot, it’s very penalizing. So you got to be super patient on this golf course.”
Jason Dufner: “I came out before I went to Sony and played these golf courses, both of them, twice. Spent some time out here practicing and playing. So I felt good. We have had some great weather, obviously that helps. The courses are in great shape. So I’m pretty comfortable right now.
The Stadium Course, it’s a difficult golf course. There’s a little bit of room to play off the tee, in my opinion, but if you get off the path a little bit, you can get into some trouble. He’s got some water out there, he’s got some tricky bunkers, you get some uneven lies here and there. The greens kind are difficult. They run on some angles and there’s some slope. So it’s definitely the most difficult of the courses we have played here in the desert area. But today it just was one of those days, but I had a wedge in my hand. So just be aggressive. I know that, if I miss, it’s a soft fade to the right, so I can manage that.”
Kevin Na: “It’s quite a bit of a change. The Nicklaus, no. But the Stadium, yes. We get to play these courses every year and you get comfortable. You don’t even have to have play a practice round, you just want to go out and – we’re playing holes just to see how the course is playing, how it’s bouncing, the firmness or the wetness, whatever the rough might be. But it’s a big change. I think the Stadium’s going to play a lot more difficult than the Palmer Course, in my opinion. But the Nicklaus Course will be about the same.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 7 Amex winners since the tournament moved to the current PGA West Stadium host course rota:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the last 7 Amex winners since the tournament moved to the current PGA West Stadium host course rota, and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
2016 – Jason Dufner Round 1: Tournament; Round 2: Stadium; Round 3: La Quinta.
7 of the last 11 winners, namely Hudson Swafford (2022), Si Woo Kim, Jason Dufner, Bill Haas, Patrick Reed, Brian Gay and Mark Wilson, had all won PGA Tour titles on Bermudagrass greens prior to capturing the title here in La Quinta. Jon Rahm extends that trend to a degree, on the basis he’d won the DP Tour Championship on the European Tour at the Earth Course in November 2017, prior to winning this in January 2018.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Jason Day, Brian Gay, Bill Haas, Zach Johnson, Si Woo Kim.
3 – Sam Burns, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler.
2 – Patrick Cantlay, Jason Dufner, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Chris Kirk, Scott Piercy, Justin Rose, Robert Streb, Jimmy Walker.
1 – Ryan Armour, Aaron Baddeley, Wesley Bryan, Stewart Cink, Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan, Tony Finau, Adam Hadwin, James Hahn, Garrick Higgo, Sungjae Im, Sung Kang, Tom Kim, Patton Kizzire, Satoshi Kodaira, Martin Laird, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Keith Mitchell, Sebastian Munoz, J.T Poston, Rory Sabbatini, Brian Stuard, Nick Taylor, Michael Thompson, Brendon Todd, Jhonattan Vegas, Nick Watney, Aaron Wise, Will Zalatoris.
Recent champions here include Vegas and Long (both Tour Rookies); Swafford (2017), Perez, Hoffman (all 1st time PGA Tour winners); Trahan, Reed and Landry (1 win at the time); Campbell, Si Woo Kim and Swafford (2022) (2 Wins); with Dufner, Gay (3 Wins) plus Wilson (4 wins). Bill Haas won this title in both 2010 and 2015, being his 1st and 6th PGA Tour titles. The very elite Jon Rahm won this in 2018 – he had won 3 main Tour victories in 2017, one of which was a PGA Tour victory at Torrey Pines. Clearly it’s all up for grabs.
The plot thickens further when you look at the circumstances prior to victories for recent winners.
Last year’s winner Hudson Swafford (a LIV defector these days) had made 5 of his last 6 cuts. 48th the week before at the Sony Open, which was his first event of 2022, inbound form was consistent if not spectacular, reading 48-MC-35-33-32-56. Naturally he’d won here in 2017.
Si Woo Kim had finished 25th the week before at the Sony Open, which had been his first event of 2021, where he opened with a -6/64. Prior to that his form was decent with 34th at The Masters, 17th at the CJ Cup ,and 8th at the Shriners Open the highlights.
Andrew Landry had inbound form of MC/MC/MC/MC/MC before winning here in 2020. He has missed the cut the week before at the Sony Open. Out of 6 seasonal outings he had a single 23rd to his name. Course form lovers could have plucked out a 2nd place finish here 2 years earlier where he lost in a play-off to Jon Rahm, but let’s be frank – Landry was a find and a half.
Then we have Adam Long who was 600/1 prior to winning this. In 4 previous starts on the PGA Tour he had 3 Missed Cuts and a 63rd to his name. Again pick the bones from that! Rahm in 2018 had finished 2nd at Kapalua 2 weeks before winning this tournament. Hudson Swafford in 2017 finished 13th the week before at Waialae – he had been T3 after 54 holes. 2016 saw Jason Dufner win this after another showing the week before at Waialae. He ultimately finished 9th at the Sony Open, and had been 6th after 54 holes. He had also won the Franklin Templeton Shoot Out in late December with Brandt Snedeker.
So what’s the right recipe for success this week? In all honesty it’s very hard to gauge as it would be at a tournament where the average winning price over the past 9 renewals has been 147/1 and where the past 5 winners have been 175/1, 66/1, 200/1, 600/1 and the 10/1 Favourite. If previous renewals are anything to go by then all types of player can thrive here, both the long bomber, accurate ball-striker and a player who has a career-breaking week with the putter.
My The American Express Tips Are As Follows:
Cameron Young 2pts EW 22/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Cameron Young seems a decent punt to, at the very least, contend at this week’s American Express event. As rookie seasons go, 2021-22 wasn’t too shabby for the New York State, 25 year-old. 3rd at the PGA Championship and 2nd at the St Andrews-hosted Open Championship was amazing in your first season at the top level, and Cameron also finished 2nd at the Sanderson Farms Championship, 3rd at The Heritage (at Pete Dye-designed Harbour Town), 2nd at the Wells Fargo Championship and 2nd at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. A Team USA President’s Cup spot was truly deserved.
6th for Birdie Average last season – only Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay ranked higher in this field – Young also sits 5th this season, with Cantlay and Rahm the only players in this field ranking higher. Naturally those 3 players have the highest world ranking in this field and quite rightly are the top 3 in the betting, so I will take Young instead at a deeper price.
Recent form of 23rd in the CJ Cup, 3rd at the Hero World Challenge, 7th at the QBE Shoot Out (partnering Steve Stricker) and 13th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions is decent enough, and interestingly Young ranked 13th and 12th for Tee to Green across both the CJ Cup and Sentry Tournament of Champions. And let’s not forget that buccaneering Young can shoot seriously low scores. 64 at Torrey Pines, 62 at Riviera, 63 at Harbour Town, 64 at St Andrews and 63 at Detroit Golf Club highlights a player who can go very low indeed.
Cameron made his American Express debut here 12 months ago where again he shot an opening round 64 at La Quinta. 3rd after 36 and 5th after 54 holes, Young in only his 9th PGA Tour start shot a closing 77 to finish 40th. Put in the same position 12 months later, I’d expect far better from a player who must be very hungry to break his PGA Tour maiden as soon as possible. RESULT: T26
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Cam Davis is in great nick and has the kind of profile I like for The American Express. Now into his 5th season on the PGA Tour, he won the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic at -18/270 in a playoff from Joaquin Niemann and Troy Merritt. Most comfortable at resort-level scoring tournaments, Davis also prefers short- to medium-length golf courses and is just as comfortable on Bentgrass or Bermudagrass greens.
He’s also got previous on desert golf courses and Pete Dye designs in particular. A hard-charging 3rd here in 2021 saw Cam shoot -14/130 over the weekend (which was only beaten by Patrick Cantlay), with the Australian shooting -20/268, ultimately 3 shots shy of Si Woo Kim. 6th last July at the Barracuda Championship, played at Old Greenwood, backed-up the fact that Davis likes desert golf set-ups, especially those in California. He’s also no slouch on Pete Dye designs, backing up his 3rd here at PGA West with 3rd at Harbour Town, behind Jordan Spieth.
Recent form is also fascinating. 6th after 36 holes (67-66) at the Shriners Open ultimately disappointed with a 37th place finish, and 13th at the high-profile CJ Cup was a decent enough outing, although Davis again was on the pace at halfway, when 3rd following opening 66-66 rounds. A trip back home to Australia returned 7th at the Australian PGA Championship (won by Cam Smith), MC at the Australian Open and a win at the Geoff Ogilvy organised Sandbelt Invitational played across 4 different courses, which can only boost confidence.
31st at the Sony Open last week was eye-catching as the 27 year-old Sydneysider ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 10th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green RESULT: MC
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Sahith Theegala 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Both Jhonattan Vegas and Adam Long have won their first (and only in the case of Long) PGA Tour titles here at PGA West. As we know, Sahith Theegala is yet to win on Tour, but it’s only a matter of time before the 25 year-old Californian grabs his maiden title and I reckon it could well be The American Express.
Sahith really impressed in his rookie season making the Tour Championship, and from the summer on he produced 3 top-6 performances to ease himself into the world’s top 50 by year end, in the process earning a spot at The Masters in April. You have to say that 2022 was majorly impressive and the Pepperdine University grad also highlighted a penchant for a low round. 63s at Narashino and Sea Island in October and November were also supported by a 64 on a tough golf course at Memorial Park, which was only beaten by Houston Open winner Tony Finau.
On top of his free scoring, Theegala has also shown a liking for playing out west. 14th (2020) and 6th (2021) in his home state at Silverado, cast your mind back 11 months when on a sponsor’s invite, Sahith shot 66-64-69 to lead the Waste Management Phoenix Open going into Sunday. With the likes of Koepka, Scheffler, Cantlay and Schauffele breathing down his neck the man from Orange, California, played nicely in the heat of a Sunday battle, ultimately finishing only a shot out of a play-off where Scheffler triumphed over Cantlay.
So my card has been marked that Sahith clearly likes desert golf and that can also be backed-up by the fact that his lowest round of 2022 was a Friday -10/62 here on PGA West’s Nicklaus Tournament Course, in his American Express debut, where he went into Sunday in 11th spot, eventually finishing 33rd. 12 months on I’m confident that Theegala would hang around nicely on Sunday. RESULT: T54
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Adam Hadwin in desert golf events is almost a must-play. 10th (2014), 4th (2019), 6th (2021) and 10th (2022) at TPC Summerlin; 17th (2016) and 12th (2017) at TPC Scottsdale; Adam also has an excellent record here on the current course rota at PGA West: 6th (2016), 3rd (2018) and 2nd (2019). He also won the 2010 Desert Dunes Classic just up the road at Desert Dunes GC in nearby Palm Springs and has always been the sort who thrives on short, scoreable courses.
2022 was decent enough although, ultimately, Hadwin was overlooked for the International Team for the President’s Cup. 9th at the Pete Dye-designed TPC Sawgrass, the Canadian also finished 7th at the Valspar and 4th at the Valero Texas Open, before going on to to lead after Thursday at the Brookline-hosted U.S. Open, where Adam went on to capture his first ever Major top 10 with a gutsy 7th place effort.
And since Captain Immelman overlooked him (he was 12th in the International Team standings), Hadwin has played some nice golf to start the 2022/23 season. 10th at the Shriners Children’s Open in October, my eye was taken by 7th last time out at a long and stringent Memorial Park test, which for me isn’t the 35 year old’s real forte. 13th, 2nd and 2nd for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, on Approach and from Tee to Green; that translated to 6th for Total Driving, 2nd for Total Accuracy, 4th for Ball Striking and 2nd for Greens in Regulation. RESULT: T18
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J.T. Poston 1pt EW 70/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
On short courses, where birdies are the true premium I always look out for J.T. Poston. A 2-time winner on the PGA Tour, Poston’s wins have come at -22/258 and -21/263 at the 2019 Wyndham Championship and the 2022 John Deere Classic respectively. Winning at TPC Deere Run, was part of a best ever year for the St Simons Island, Georgia, resident, who produced a couple of further top 3 finishes on his way to making the Tour Championship for the very first time.
Intriguingly both of the aforementioned top 3s came at Pete Dye designs. 3rd at Harbour Town in April featured a closing 64 and 2nd at TPC River Highlands also featured an opening round 62 plus a closing round 64. Indeed a deep dive into Poston’s Dye record highlights additional 6th (2019) and 8th (2020) spots at Harbour Town, allied to 7th (2019) here at PGA West, which he backed up with a 25th place finish, 12 months ago. That particular finish came off inbound form of 42-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC.
12 months on and the difference is there for all to see. 20th at the Shriners, 21st at the RSM Classic, 21st at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and 20th at the Sony Open last week, highlights consistency, which is coming from strong driving (he ranks 18th in the field for Strokes Gained Off the Tee over the past 8 tournaments) and a strong Tee to Green game where he has ranked 6th (RSM) and 13th (Sony) in 2 of his last 3 appearances. RESULT: T6
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David Lingmerth 1pt EW 250/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
All prices are in play this week at a tournament where 7 of the last 13 winners have been at triple-digit odds and the average winning price going back to 2010 is 141/1. Now David Lingmerth is back on the PGA Tour after years of scratching around for starts on the PGA Tour and playing unsuccessfully on the Korn Ferry Tour. That all changed at last year’s Korn Ferry Tour Playoffs where the Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida-based Swede won the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship, at the same time earning full status for the 2022/23 PGA Tour season. And in the autumn Lingmerth delivered some decent results with 11th at the Bermuda Championship, 8th at the WWTC at Mayakoba and 10th at the RSM Classic.
The 2015 Memorial Tournament winner (played at Jack’s Place), David has played nicely here at PGA West before. Go way back to 2013, when the Humana Challenge was played on a different course rota which did include 18 holes at La Quinta and Lingmerth finished 2nd to Brian Gay, when involved in a 3-man play-off involving Charles Howell III. The 35 year-old Swede also lost on this course rota in a play-off in 2016, this time to Jason Dufner. 6 from 6 here at PGA West, David has earned a cool $1.218 million here in the Californian desert.
A winner on Jack Nicklaus’ ultimate design at Muirfield Village, Lingmerth also has a decent record at TPC Sawgrass, which features a couple of Dye courses. 3rd (2011) and 6th (2014) on the Valley course, in headier days Lingmerth also finished 2nd at the 2013 Players Championship played at TPC Sawgrass. With little expectation on his shoulders, and a little momentum from the autumn, you might assume that the ex-world number 35 is looking forward to his return to PGA West. RESULT: MC
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2023 Majors Competition, Sponsored By bet365
