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Course Guide: From a course design perspective, Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw these days are most famously known for their renovation masterpiece at Pinehurst Number 2 and the inland faux links-style course at Trinity Forest in Dallas, Texas. However their Plantation Course design at Kapalua, which was opened in 1991, is no ordinary golf course as it sits perched above the Pacific Ocean.
A Par 73 format which is unique on the PGA Tour, the course is synonymous with long drives, aggressive play and impressively low scoring. Scratch a little deeper though and it becomes apparent that the course can be mastered just as well by shorter, accurate types who can putt the lights out over 4 days of competition. 2020 saw Plantation open its doors to a fresh renovation, again managed by Coore and Crenshaw. A $12 million tee to green project, every part of the 28 year old course was re-worked including tee boxes, bunkers, fairways, drainage and green complexes. It’s done little though to make this course more difficult and like all coastal courses it plays as difficult as the strength and direction of the wind.
The Plantation Course at Kapalua, Lahaina, Hawaii: Designer: Coore & Crenshaw, 1991, with 2019 renovation; Course Type: Coastal, Resort, Long; Par: 73; Length: 7,596 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 0; Acres of Fairway: 44.5; Fairways Celebration Bermudagrass; Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass, 2.5″; Greens: 8,722 sq.ft average featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 11ft.
Course Scoring Average: 2012: 70.44 (-2.66), Difficulty Rank 48 of 49 courses. 2013: 72.11 (-0.89), Difficulty Rank 32 of 43 courses. 2014: 70.58 (-2.42), Rank 47 of 48 courses. Course Scoring Average 2015: 69.93 (-3.07), Difficulty Rank 52 of 52 courses. 2016: 69.81 (-3.19), Difficulty Rank 50 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.38 (-2.64), Difficulty Rank 50 of 50 courses. 2018: 71.22 (-1.78), Difficulty Rank 47 of 51 courses. 2019: 70.92 (-2.08), Difficulty Rank 44 of 49 courses. 2020: 72.22 (-0.78), Difficulty Rank 20 of 41 courses. 2021: 69.32 (-3.68), Difficulty Rank 51 of 51 courses. 2022: 68.22 (-4.78), Difficulty Rank 50 of 50 courses. 2023: 68.92 (-4.08), Difficulty Rank 49 of 49 courses.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Coore/Crenshaw designs include:
- Pinehurst Number 2 – 2014 U.S. Open
- Trinity Forest Golf Club – 2018/19 AT&T Byron Nelson
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the Plantation Course and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
- Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
- Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
- TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
- CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
- Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
- East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
- TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
Course Overview: Let’s start by headlining the Coore and Crenshaw renovation on the Plantation Course which we saw for the first time in competition in 2020. Firmer and flatter putting surfaces were undoubtedly the biggest carry away, with the winning score of -14/278 a significant shift from previous low scoring renewals. But since then lighter winds and more established green complexes have seen scoring back to what we expect here at Kapalua. Harris English and Joaquin Niemann both scored -25/267 to make a play-off in 2021, and 2022 saw Cameron Smith, Jon Rahm and Matt Jones shoot -34/258, -33/259 and -32/260 respectively. Scoring “slowed” to -27/265 for Jon Rahm last year, with slightly firmer turf conditions in play. Naturally the Plantation Course was the easiest on the PGA Tour schedule last season.
Other key parts of the 2019 work included re-positioned tee boxes which take into account the fact that Maui now receives less wind than it did when the original course was designed. Hole yardages changed therefore with total yardage up 78 yards to 7,596 yards. Bunkers were re-positioned, and the whole course was re-grassed with Celebration Bermudagrass from tee to green and TifEagle Bermudagrass on the putting surfaces. Many greens were re-contoured as were green entrances. Quite significant changes all in all which saw experienced Kapalua hands having to revisit their detailed course notes.
Plantation seems long at circa 7,600 yards, but the course plays as a Par 73 via a unique 36/37 Par split and is famous for having 11 par-4s and only 3 par-3s. In total the layout features 8 sub-425 yard par-4s. With wedge in hand, this makes it possible to score heavily on the 4-shot holes, especially on the back-9. The course has the largest amount of elevation changes on the whole PGA Tour creating blind shots and plenty of uneven lies. Large greens feature 2019 laid TifEagle Bermudagrass carpet, with less severe contours overall.
The key to this test tends to be top-class wind play allied to conquering the uniquely contoured and huge 8,700+ sq.ft average green complexes. Eagles and birdies are on offer to those who can putt well on greens where getting close to the hole is a particularly difficult task – indeed Kapalua traditionally ranks inside the top 10 most difficult courses in terms of Proximity to Hole every year. Tie the difficulty in getting close to the pin in with the fact that putts are difficult to read, with grain a huge feature and that there are huge variances in putting speed dependant on whether a putt is uphill, flat or downhill.
The scoring at Kapalua is always shaped by the strength of the local winds. For 2024 winds will be pretty standard at around 20mph for what looks like the opening 54 holes, so expect a complete resort scoring-level festival of a tournament.
Sentry Winners: 2023: Jon Rahm (-27); 2022: Cameron Smith (-34); 2021: Harris English (-25); 2020: Justin Thomas (-14); 2019: Xander Schauffele (-23); 2018: Dustin Johnson (-24); 2017: Justin Thomas (-22); 2016: Jordan Spieth (-30); 2015: Patrick Reed (-21); 2014: Zach Johnson (-19); 2013: Dustin Johnson (-15, 54 holes); 2012: Steve Stricker (-23); 2011: Jonathan Byrd (-24); 2010: Geoff Ogilvy (-22).
- 2023: Jon Rahm 64-71-67-63 -27/265
- 2022: Cameron Smith 65-64-64-65 -34/258
- 2021: Harris English 65-67-66-69 -25/267
- 2020: Justin Thomas 67-73-69-69 -14/278
- 2019: Xander Schauffele 72-67-68-62 -23/269
Path to Victory: Below are the end-of-round positions for Sentry winners:
- 2023 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 5th.
- 2022 – Cameron Smith: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2021 – Harris English: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2020 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 2nd.
- 2019 – Xander Schauffele: Round 1: 19th, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 4th.
- 2018 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
- 2017 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2016 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2015 – Patrick Reed: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 3rd.
- 2014 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 4th.
- 2013 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st.
- 2012 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2011 – Jonathan Byrd: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
- 2010 – Geoff Ogilvy: Round 1: 11th, Round 2 3rd, Round 3: 2nd.
Shots From the Lead: Below are Sentry winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
- 2023 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: level, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 7 back.
- 2022 – Cameron Smith: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 3 ahead, Round 3: level.
- 2021 – Harris English: Round 1: level, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: level.
- 2020 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 1 back.
- 2019 – Xander Schauffele: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 5 back.
- 2018 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
- 2017 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 2 ahead.
- 2016 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 4 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
- 2015 – Patrick Reed: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 back.
- 2014 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 3 ahead, Round 3: 2 back.
- 2013 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: level, Round 2: 3 ahead.
- 2012 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 5 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
- 2011 – Jonathan Byrd: Round 1: level, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: level.
- 2010 – Geoff Ogilvy: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 1 back.
OWGR of Sentry Winners: 2023: Rahm 5; 2022: Smith 21; English 29; 2020: Thomas 4; 2019: Schauffele 11; 2018: D Johnson 1; 2017: Thomas 22.
Lead Score Progression:
- 2023: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -16; Round 3 -24; Round 4 -27.
- 2022: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -17; Round 3 -26; Round 4 -34.
- 2021: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -21; Round 4 -25.
- 2020: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -11; Round 4 -14.
- 2019: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -17; Round 4 -23.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Max Homa, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Tom Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Brendon Todd, Patrick Cantlay and Tommy Fleetwood.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Sentry Winning Prices: 2023: Rahm 7/1; 2022: Cameron Smith 28/1; 2021: Harris English 33/1; 2020: Justin Thomas 11/2; 2019: Xander Schauffele 22/1; 2018: Dustin Johnson 15/2; 2017: Justin Thomas 22/1; 2016: Spieth 5/1; 2015: Reed 22/1; 2014: Zach Johnson 14/1; 2013: Dustin Johnson 14/1; 2012: Stricker 17/2; 2011: Byrd 50/1; 2010: Ogilvy 9/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 19/1; Overall Average: 18/1.
For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.
Historical Weather:
- 2023: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 77. Wind NE 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 80. Wind NE 10-15 mph, gust up to 20 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 80. Wind ENE 10-15 mph, gust up to 20 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 79. Wind NE 10-15 mph.
- 2022: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind NE 10-18 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 79. Wind N 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 79. Wind N/NE 8-16 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 79. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
- 2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 82. Wind ENE 9-18 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon, with a high of 82. Wind N/NE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with mostly sunny skies, high of 80. Wind E/NE 8-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 81. Wind ENE 12-17 mph, gusting to 22 mph.
- 2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 80. Wind N/NE 16-22 mph. Friday: Heavy morning showers turning to a mixture of clouds and sunshine in the afternoon. High of 79. Wind NE 20-30 mph, with gusts to 35 mph. Saturday: Scattered morning showers with rain decreasing in the afternoon. High of 79. Wind NE 15-25 mph, with gusts over 30 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 80. Wind ENE 20-30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph.
- 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 79. Wind ENE 14-22 mph, with gusts to 31 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 79. Wind ENE 15-25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 79. Wind ENE 10-16 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind NNW 5-10 mph.
- 2018: Thursday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 77. Wind ENE 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 78. Wind ENE 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 77. Wind ENE 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 77. Wind ENE 18-28 mph, with gusts to 35 mph.
- 2017: Thursday: Mostly clear skies with an isolated shower in the afternoon. High of 73. Wind NNE 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 75. Wind NNE 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 75. Wind NNE 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 76. Wind ENE 10-15 mph.
- 2016: Thursday: Sunny and warm. High of 81. Wind N at 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny and warm. High of 81. Wind WSW at 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 80. Wind SW at 10-20 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 81. Wind at W 6-12 mph.
- 2015: Friday: Partly cloudy and warm, with temperatures in the high-70s. ESE wind shifting W at 10-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. ENE wind at 10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 80. Wind WSW at 10 mph. Monday: Mostly sunny. High of 80. Wind WSW at 10 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Maui is here. We’ve seen little rain in the build-up to this event, and with little threat of precipitation during the event I’d expect the prodigious Plantation course fairway roll-outs we expect here. Green speeds should also be up on what we saw in 2023.
The only true defence of this course is plenty of wind, and forecasts suggest similar to what we saw 12 months ago. With 15-20 mph Trade (north easterly) winds across the opening 54 holes I’d still expect scoreable conditions, but I can’t see them being as amazingly low as we saw in 2022. Temperatures will be a pleasant 24 -25 degrees Celsius – 75-77 Fahrenheit – throughout.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Sanderson Farms Championship/Alfred Dunhill Links which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded, plus the Hero World Challenge. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Sam Burns; 3) Ludvig Aberg / Adam Hadwin; 5) Viktor Hovland / Collin Morikawa; 7) Corey Conners / Tommy Fleetwood / Lucas Glover / Luke List / Adam Svensson; 12) Russell Henley / Max Homa; 14) Tony Finau; 15) Jordan Spieth; 16) Keegan Bradley; 17) Harris English; 18) Cam Davis; 19) Matt Fitzpatrick; 20) Jason Day / Brian Harman; 22) Rickie Fowler; 23) Tyrrell Hatton; 24) Vincent Norrman / Sepp Straka.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Jordan Spieth; 2) Tony Finau / Tyrrell Hatton; 4) Scottie Scheffler; 5) Tom Kim; 6) Corey Conners / Max Homa; 8) Jason Day / Erik van Rooyen; 10) Keegan Bradley; 11) Matt Fitzpatrick / Rickie Fowler; 13) Tommy Fleetwood / Chris Kirk; 15) Lucas Glover / Viktor Hovland; 17) Brian Harman; 18) Eric Cole; 19) Collin Morikawa / Sepp Straka; 21) Camilo Villegas; 22) Sam Burns; 23) Ludvig Aberg / Justin Rose; 25) Tom Hoge.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Tony Finau; 2) Jordan Spieth; 3) Scottie Scheffler; 4) Jason Day / Viktor Hovland; 6) Rickie Fowler; 7) Si Woo Kim / Collin Morikawa; 9) Lucas Glover; 10) Wyndham Clark / Nick Taylor; 12) Sam Burns / Adam Hadwin; 14) Matt Fitzpatrick; 15) Keegan Bradley; 16) Sepp Straka; 17) Max Homa; 18) Tommy Fleetwood; 19) Ludvig Aberg / Justin Rose; 21) Tyrrell Hatton; 22) Matt Wallace; 23) Mackenzie Hughes; 24) Lee Hodges; 25) Akshay Bhatia / Eric Cole / Denny McCarthy.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Corey Conners / Tony Finau; 4) Viktor Hovland / Jordan Spieth; 6) Tommy Fleetwood / Adam Hadwin / Tyrrell Hatton / Max Homa; 10) Ludvig Aberg / Luke List; 12) Collin Morikawa; 13) Lucas Glover; 14) Jason Day / Matt Fitzpatrick / Brian Harman; 17) Tom Kim; 18) Sam Burns; 19) Russell Henley; 20) Denny McCarthy; 21) Keegan Bradley / Adam Svensson; 23) Rickie Fowler; 24) Sepp Straka; 25) Erik van Rooyen.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Collin Morikawa; 2) Keegan Bradley; 3) Scottie Scheffler; 4) Jason Day / Cam Davis; 6) Harris English / J.T. Poston / Nick Taylor; 9) Rickie Fowler / Max Homa; 11) Lucas Glover; 12) Jordan Spieth / Sepp Straka; 14) Tony Finau; 15) Sam Burns; 16) Tom Kim; 17) Viktor Hovland; 18) Matt Wallace; 19) Lee Hodges; 20) Matt Fitzpatrick; 21) Tommy Fleetwood; 22) Brendon Todd; 23) Ludvig Aberg; 24) Adam Hadwin; 25) Vincent Norrman.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Adam Hadwin; 3) Tony Finau / Collin Morikawa; 5) Viktor Hovland / Jordan Spieth; 7) Ludvig Aberg / Tommy Fleetwood / Max Homa; 10) Tom Kim; 11) Cam Davis; 12) Jason Day / Tyrrell Hatton; 14) Harris English / Sungjae Im / Sepp Straka; 17) Eric Cole / J.T. Poston / Erik van Rooyen; 20) Keegan Bradley / Sam Burns / Matt Fitzpatrick / Kurt Kitayama; 24) Nick Taylor; 25) Luke List.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of The Sentry winners here at the Plantation Course since 2015 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this undulating, coastal, Par 73:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
- 2023, Jon Rahm (-27). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 32nd, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 1st.
- 2022, Cameron Smith (-34). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 1st.
- 2021, Harris English (-25). SG Off the Tee: 8th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 25th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 1st.
- 2020, Justin Thomas (-14). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 8th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 13th.
- 2019, Xander Schauffele (-23). SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 3rd.
- 2018, Dustin Johnson (-24). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 6th.
- 2017, Justin Thomas (-22). SG Off the Tee: 3rd, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 4th.
- 2016, Jordan Spieth (-30). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 1st.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
- SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 10th, SG Around the Green: 8th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 4th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
- 2023, Jon Rahm (-27). 307 yards (2nd), 51.7% fairways (35th), 84.7% greens in regulation (7th), 40’2″ proximity to hole (22nd), 63.6% scrambling (13th), 1.62 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2022, Cameron Smith (-34). 303 yards (4th), 75.0% fairways (14th), 86.1% greens in regulation (5th), 34’9″ proximity to hole (20th), 80.0 % scrambling (9th), 1.55 putts per GIR (2nd).
- 2021, Harris English (-25). 277 yards (25th), 83.3% fairways (14th), 86.1% greens in regulation (3rd), 38’2″ proximity to hole (20th), 70.0 % scrambling (17th), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2020, Justin Thomas (-14). 272 yards (11th), 78.3% fairways (19th), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 37’4″ proximity to hole (2nd), 43.8 % scrambling (32nd), 1.66 putts per GIR (2nd).
- 2019, Xander Schauffele (-23). 280 yards (14th), 78.3% fairways (15th), 81.9% greens in regulation (5th), 40’0″ proximity to hole (20th), 69.2 % scrambling (8th), 1.66 putts per GIR (2nd).
- 2018, Dustin Johnson (-24). 296 yards (2nd), 65.0% fairways (18th), 77.8% greens in regulation (8th), 45’8″ proximity to hole (23rd), 68.8 % scrambling (6th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2017, Justin Thomas (-22). 302 yards (3rd), 73.3% fairways (17th), 87.5% greens in regulation (2nd), 32’8″ proximity to hole (3rd), 66.7 % scrambling (12th), 1.68 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2016, Jordan Spieth (-30). 284 yards (17th), 73.3% fairways (12th), 83.3% greens in regulation (11th), 34’11” proximity to hole (3rd), 83.3 % scrambling (3rd), 1.62 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2015, Patrick Reed (-21). 282 yards (4th), 66.7% fairways (27th), 80.6% greens in regulation (15th), 44’8″ proximity to hole (25th), 85.7 % scrambling (2nd), 1.69 putts per GIR (5th).
- 2014, Zach Johnson (-19). 267 yards (23rd), 83.3% fairways (8th), 77.8% greens in regulation (17th), 35’5″ proximity to hole (3rd), 81.3 % scrambling (2nd), 1.73 putts per GIR (9th).
- 2013, Dustin Johnson (-15). 280 yards (2nd), 51.1% fairways (30th), 88.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 36’6″ proximity to hole (2nd), 50.0% scrambling (18th), 1.75 putts per GIR (3rd).
- 2012, Steve Stricker (-23). 268 yards (15th), 66.7% fairways (11th), 81.9% greens in regulation (13th), 35’8″ proximity to hole (4th), 69.2% scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (2nd).
- 2011, Jonathan Byrd (-24). 273 yards (21st), 80.0% fairways (11th), 86.1% greens in regulation (10th), 34”11″ proximity to hole (10th), 70.0% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (8th).
- 2010, Geoff Ogilvy (-22). 274 yards (19th), 71.7% fairways (16th), 84.7% greens in regulation (12th), 37’10” proximity to hole (10th), 63.6% scrambling (2nd), 1.64 putts per GIR (1st).
Tournament Skill Averages:
- Driving Distance: 12th, Driving Accuracy: 18th, Greens in Regulation: 8th, Proximity to Hole: 12th, Scrambling: 9th, Putting Average 3rd.
So let’s take a view from players as to how the Plantation course sets up and what skills the course favours:
Jon Rahm (2023): “Last year was the lowest I’ve ever shot without winning a tournament, that’s for sure. I think last year was unique because we didn’t have as much wind as we usually have here, which is the defence of this golf course, and then it was softer than in the past, so you had to be that aggressive.
No, you just go out there and keep making birdies. Luckily there’s a stretch of this golf course from 12 on where you can give yourself a really good birdie look on every single one of the holes. Maybe not on 17 because that tee shot, the second shot can be tricky. But 12 through 16 you really should be taking advantage of those holes, right? And on the front nine, you can also, you can do it. I think sometimes the toughest stretch is 1 through 4, and then 5 through 9 you see a lot of people make birdies.
Well, this is the firmest I’ve seen it and not even, I don’t even know what to say to that because it plays very short. I mean, if I’m hitting good tee shots and using the driver, maybe on 3 and 4 if it’s windy you’ll have more than a 9-iron in. Besides that, it’s all wedge shots. I can’t really, it’s driver, wedge for the most part all day, especially when there’s not wind like this. So with greens being receptive and rolling as well as they are, you have to shoot low.”
Cameron Smith (2022): “I got in here on Thursday last week, so the weather back in Jacksonville typically this time of year isn’t that great, so I wanted to give myself a little bit of time to get used to the course and also the time change and stuff like that. And, like I said, I haven’t been doing too much practice so being here made me practice and, yeah, it was good.
Started to feel really comfortable there, especially with the driver. Yeah, I mean, the course is still kind of receptive. It was nice to see a little bit of run in the fairways again today. But, yeah, there’s going to be low scores. There always is around here. And, yeah, just got to prepare for that the best I can and hopefully have a good weekend.
There’s such a low score out there you never know what can happen. I mean, it’s very gettable, there’s so many wedges, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s another 61 or 62 out there tomorrow. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, Hawaii reminds me so much of where I grew up, it’s insane. The grass that we hit off, the greens being quite slow and grainy. Yeah, it’s awesome, I love it here.”
Harris English (2021): “I saw Xander finish with a 62 last year and I know it’s out there. I mean, you drive the ball well out here, you’re going to have a lot of short irons, a lot of wedges, and you just got to get your putting dialled in. I feel like did I that today, gave myself a lot of chances, and rolled in a couple longer putts. Yeah, it was awesome. I got off to a really good start, making probably a 20-footer on No. 2, and that’s what you got to do out here. I love these Bermuda greens. I grew up on greens very similar to this. And just got hot with the putter. I felt like I was hitting the ball really welcoming into it, and I feel like my iron game is probably one of my strengths. And I think I only missed two or three greens out there today. I think I chipped one time, so a couple greens I did miss, I was still putting from the fringe. So just overall a really good ball-striking round and good putting round.”
“I know guys have different strategies, but I’m hitting driver a lot this week. I would say more so than a normal golf course. I mean, these fairways are wide, you can be as aggressive as you want to, but it’s still about putting the ball in the fairway. You start putting the ball in the rough, start missing greens, it’s tough to get up-and-down because these greens are pretty gnarly Bermuda grass around the greens and they’re pretty tough to lag putt out here.”
Justin Thomas (2020): “The thing is the pins were front on 1, 2 and 4, and if they’re downwind, you can’t get close to the hole unless you get lucky and land it short or make a long putt. I mean, I landed it literally two inches on the green on 2 and I had about a 45-footer from past the hole. That’s just how it is. Everyone has to play in those conditions, not just me. I understood that those were not really holes I was going to attack and make birdie unless I made a long putt, and I know the back nine you can make a lot of birdies, and I could have birdied nine of the last ten holes today really. I played really, really solidly the last half of the round.”
“Yeah, it was tough all day (Friday). It was windy all day. That rain was annoying a little bit in the start and not even remotely close to yesterday, but it was still enough in the beginning off and on to make it tough. I mean, it’s just tough out there. It’s tougher. I mean, it makes an easy golf course play harder. It’s the protection of the course. It’s meant to play that way, and with the newer, firmer greens, the scores are obviously a lot higher, and I think the wind and the weather is the cause of that.”
Xander Schauffele: “Yesterday I made a lot of mistakes on the back nine and being in San Diego, it’s hard to practice in a whole lot of wind. So we got a little more comfy today versus yesterday. Wind wise, it was pretty much east to, northeast, so it was the same direction. So the lines and everything else was the same for the most part. As a comfort aspect that definitely helped. Yeah, it’s an uncomfortable walk, but it will never get old and the views also won’t get old. So the more times you can play on a piece of property like this the more it will help.”
Dustin Johnson: “The first time you play it, maybe it’s a big golf course, the greens are really slopey and you kind of – and, too, when you’re playing practice rounds, the pins are always in some funny spots. But the more you play this golf course, the more you get used to it, the more you kind of know how to get yourself around it. Because sometimes it’s one of those courses where you really got to be on right side of the pin, whether you’re on the green or off the green, if you’re on the right side you know you can still make pars. But there’s a lot of opportunities for birdie. You got two holes that are somewhat drivable, four par-5s that you can reach. So it just all depends really. The greens are rolling pretty good, they’re a little slow, you can be a lot more aggressive. But I’m kind of with them though, I didn’t see that many under the first time I came here either. A big key with these greens with them being grainy and that is putting a good roll on it. I feel like I’m doing that. Just trusting the lines you got to hit them on. The greens are tricky to read. I had a few putts today that really – good birdie putts where I thought I had a good read on it and just the ball went opposite of what I thought, it’s just going to happen out here. So for me I just got to stay patient and try not to get too frustrated.”
Justin Thomas: “Today was the hardest for sure. It was a little windier. The greens are getting a little faster. They are still not, I’m sure, up to the pace that they would like with all the rain, but they are starting to get a little firmer, a little faster. The wind just makes it a lot harder to putt. And yesterday was pretty calm. It was about as easy as you could get this golf course. Then Thursday, it was, you know, a normal Kapalua wind, ten to 15. They have been similar but a little different, if that makes sense. Just kind of different versions of a little windy. It’s a course where you can just get so hot. You can realistically, 11 can be a tough hole, and 17 is a tough hole. But other than that, you’ve got a wedge in your hand or you’re looking at a lot of birdie holes and potentially eagle holes. I was just trying to tell myself that even though I made a bad bogey on 7, I hit a good putt on 8, just missed, and then just missed a wood over a 3-footer on 9 to birdie. Could have been 5-under on the front, but still being 2-under, I could still shoot 6-, 7-under on the back and post a low one. That was kind of my mind frame just going through the back nine.”
Jordan Spieth: “Whether it’s a short putt, or long, you just really got to hit it. I played a couple putts today – trickiest reads for me were ones where the entire mountain and grain is going one way, but you’re on the back side – like putts like I had on 17. I had one where that back side of that green’s pitched back the other way. You want to play gravity, but you know there’s an effect from the hill, from the slope and you know there’s an effect from the gradual slope down the mountain and the grain. And each time I try to almost out smart it and play it towards the water and it actually turned back into the hill. So I’ll keep a note of that. But for the most part, if you’re hitting anything from really five feet out into the grain uphill, it is just tough to hit hard enough. Especially in the last group because they get a little spiked up and they’re even slower.”
Patrick Reed: “The golf course fits my eye really well. A lot of the holes, seems like I can work it right-to-left and I’ve worked really hard this off-season on not only working the ball right-to-left but also working it left-to-right, so I can have both shots.”
Zach Johnson: “Well, I guess there was an intimidation factor there just because of the length of it. You know, score card length, and you get a few winds out here where the course does play long. You know, you get the trades, it doesn’t feel like it plays that long. But I was intimidated, not necessarily just because of the yardage, though. Because of the greens. They’re just so hard to putt. I mean they’re big; they’re undulating. A flat putt is pretty slow. The ones down grain are super fast. The ones in the grain are obviously super slow. So the greens are still intimidating. What I’ve grown to know is you’re going to hit good putts and they’re just not going to go in, because there’s so much break. So once I embraced that fact, I think things have kind of settled down a little bit mentally. It’s just hard. Everybody is going to hit it you’re going to hit a lot of fairways, you’re going to hit a lot of greens and you’re going to miss a lot of putts.”
Geoff Ogilvy: “Does it help to hit it long around here? It helps, I think. I don’t think I’m long anymore. I’m long enough. It gives longer hitters room to have a go at it, you know. There’s a lot of holes here where you just hit it as hard as you can and have a little bit of concern for where it goes but a lot less than normal. So I guess it’s an advantage to hit it long because you can, it’s always an advantage to hit it long. There’s a lot of holes here where it’s probably a super advantage. Like 18 is unreachable for the non-long guys but the long guys, it’s exponential. Every ten yards you hit it, you get an extra 20 yards. But a good wind player and a good putter is going to do the best out here I think.”
Steve Stricker: “Yeah, you have to learn here. It takes a while to learn here. It’s a little bit different than what we are typically used to. There’s big undulating greens, a lot of slope in the fairways. But I think the biggest challenge is the greens and the wind once you get on the greens. The wind can blow and make putting very difficult, and even the roll out in the greens that we typically have, which we are not seeing as much here. So it’s a challenge to hit some of these shots, and you expect that ball to roll out or release a lot, and it’s not now. So that’s a little different, too, and something to get used to. But it’s a course where a lot of local knowledge helps you out a lot and the more times you play here, the better off you are.”
Incoming form of Sentry winners since 2010:
- Jon Rahm: 8th WC/1st DPWTC/4th CJ Cup/1st Open de Espana.
- Cameron Smith: 4th RSM/15th Houston/9th CJ Cup/17th Tour Championship.
- Harris English: 1st Shark Shoot/5th Mayakoba/6th RSM/28th ZOZO.
- Justin Thomas: 5th WC/17th ZOZO/1st CJ Cup/4th Safeway.
- Xander Schauffele: 8th WC/16th DPWTC/1st HSBC/48th CJ Cup.
- Dustin Johnson: 14th WC/2nd HSBC/17th Tour Championship/33rd BMW.
- Justin Thomas: 5th Shark Shoot/4th Dunlop Phoenix/23rd HSBC/1st CIMB.
- Jordan Spieth: 4th WC/2nd Aus Open/7th HSBC/1st Tour Championship.
- Patrick Reed: 10th Shark Shoot/3rd WC/22nd HSBC/26th CIMB.
- Zach Johnson: 1st WC/16th McGladrey/ 40th Shriners/7th Tour Championship.
- Dustin Johnson: 7th Shark Shoot/13th WC/39th HSBC/47th Dunhill Links.
- Steve Stricker: 4th Shark Shoot/16th WC/15th Tour Championship/WD BMW.
- Jonathan Byrd: 1st Shriners/30th Fry’s.com/66th McGladrey/5th Viking.
- Geoff Ogilvy: 7th Aus PGA/31st Aus Open/4th Dubai/32nd Australian Masters.
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
- 2023 – Morikawa (4/20), Rahm (19/20), Spaun (9/20) -9/64 – 22/1, 12/1 & 45/1.
- 2022 – Smith – Group 9/17 -8/65 – 22/1
- 2021 – English (16/21), Thomas (21/21) -8/65 – 28/1 & 12/1.
- 2020 – Niemann – Group 5/17 -7/66 – 30/1
- 2019 – Tway – Group 2/17 -7/66 – 50/1
- 2018 – Leishman – Group 15/17 -6/67 – 20/1
- 2017 – Walker – Group 12/16 -8/65 – 25/1
- 2016 – Reed – Group 16/16 -8/65.
- 2015 – Henley – Group 13/17 -8/65.
- 2014 – Kirk (8/15), Simpson, Spieth (both 13/15), Thompson (4/15) -7/66.
- 2013 – D Johnson (7/7), Wilson (4/7), Watney (6/7) -4/69.
- 2012 – Jonathan Byrd – Group 14/14 -6/67.
- 2011 – Byrd (4/17), Pettersson (7/17) -7/66.
- 2010 – Glover – Group 10/14 -7/66.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 5 – Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth.
- 4 – Sam Burns, Jason Day, Si Woo Kim, Camilo Villegas.
- 3 – Chris Kirk, Xander Schauffele.
- 2 – Patrick Cantlay, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, Justin Rose.
- 1 – Ludvig Aberg, Keegan Bradley, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Adam Hadwin, Nick Hardy, Tyrrell Hatton, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Luke List, Hideki Matsuyama, Taylor Moore, Collin Morikawa, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, Sepp Straka, Adam Svensson, Nick Taylor, Brendon Todd.
Kapalua is a course where Driving Accuracy and pure Greens in Regulation take something of a back seat. Instead the key to success here is accurate approach play and conversion of scoring chances with the putter. Of the last 8 winners here on the Plantation Course, in terms of Strokes Gained, Off the Tee is far more important than Approach, whilst Around the Green is far more important than it usually is around this quirky set-up. Ultimately though Tee to Green ranks of 3rd (Rahm), 3rd (Smith), 13th (English), 2nd (Thomas), 3rd (Schauffele), 1st (Johnson), 1st (Thomas) and 1st (Spieth) highlight that total control of the golf ball from Tee to Green will be the essential this week.
The putter though also needs to be red hot to win. The last 14 winners of the Tournament of Champions have averaged 3rd spot across the Putting Average (Putts per GIR) category, whilst the last 8 winners have ranked on average 4th in the field for Strokes Gained Putting. You simply have to take your chances here to win.
13 of the last 15 winners here all played competitive golf in December previous, be that in Australia or at Tiger’s Hero World Challenge and/or the QBE Shoot Out. Working forward from Vijay Singh in 2007, all winners, bar 2019 champion Xander Schauffele, had shot -19 or lower to win a PGA Tour tournament previously in their career.
Another angle is Hawaii golf. Six players to date have won both The Sentry and the Sony Open in Hawaii: Jim Furyk (1996 Sony, 2001 Sentry), Ernie Els (2003 Sentry, 2003 and 2004 Sony), Vijay Singh (2005 Sony, 2007 Sentry), Zach Johnson (2009 Sony, 2014 Sentry), Justin Thomas (2017 Sentry, 2017 and 2020 Sony) and Cameron Smith (2020 Sony, 2022 Sentry).
2024 Majors Competition, Sponsored By bet365
