Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Turkish Airlines Open Tips 2026

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What was once part of the Race to Dubai’s ‘Final Series’ and a big-money end of season affair, the Turkish Airlines Open returned to the schedule last year after a 6-year absence and we head back to Antalya again this year – albeit to a new course.

An improved field over last week’s China Open sees David Puig return to DP World Tour action as the 12/1 favourite with Jayden Schaper, Daniel Hillier and Angel Ayora following behind at around 16/1.Tom McKibbin also returns to this level and he rates as a 22/1 chance and in a similar spot in the betting to Hennie du Plessis.

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Course Overview. After flitting between the Montgomerie Maxx and Regnum Carya in the years that this event has been played, we move to a new venue this week in the shape of the National Golf Club which sits within the same Regnum Hotels estate as last year’s course, just inland from the coast at Antalya.

The 7,287 yard Par 72 promises to present a notably different test to the wide, resort-style layouts more commonly seen in this region. Opened in 1994 and carved through dense corridors of pine and eucalyptus, the course has long been regarded as one of Turkey’s most traditional and strategically demanding designs.

While not overly long by modern standards, the National defends itself effectively. Water hazards and well-placed bunkers are in play on a number of holes, whilst the Bermudagrass greens – which are often slightly raised – are typically quick, true and subtly contoured. Approaches demand precision, particularly as angles into pins are frequently dictated by driving accuracy.

A regular layout of ten Par 4s, four Par 3s and four Par 5s, the long holes are all of a reasonable length at between 558-585 yards. The closing 18th hole is one of three sub-400 yard Par 4s and could create an exciting finish if the tournament is still in the balance on the 72nd hole.

Overall, the National Golf Club offers a more classical European parkland examination than last year and one that may well reward patience, discipline and intelligent shot-making over brute power.

Turkish Airlines Open Tips

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2025: Martin Couvra, 100/1; 2019: Tyrrell Hatton, 18/1; 2018: Justin Rose, 9/2; 2017: Justin Rose, 8/1; 2016: Thorbjorn Olesen, 125/1; 2015: Victor Dubuisson, 45/1; 2014: Brooks Koepka, 33/1; 2013: Victor Dubuisson, 80/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the Antalya region is here.

Good conditions are likely to be presented to the players with sunny spells expected throughout the 4 days accompanied by a negligible breeze. Temperatures will peak in the mid 70s Fahrenheit in the afternoons, although this may spark the odd thunderstorm, particularly on Friday and Saturday.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. I’m afraid it’s one of those weeks where we have very little to go on with no DP World Tour history at this venue, meaning that this section of the preview is very sparse.

Back in 2014, National GC hosted the Turkish Airlines Challenge on the European second tier which was won by Oliver Farr with a 2-under total, suggesting that this course will present a significant challenge to this week’s players. Although no skill stats were recorded for the Welshman’s victory, from the seasons he’s had on the DP World Tour over the years it’s fair to say that he’s an accurate sort who’s mid-length off the tee at best.

A smattering of LET events held here over the years tell a similar story, and if there’s one thing we can draw from the limited information we have it’s that scoring is likely to be tough around these parts.

Incoming Form: Turkish Open form of our winners including those events played at the Montgomerie Maxx and the Regnum Carya is as follows:

  • 2025: Martin Couvra: 7/7/MC/MC/4/5/53/MC/14/31/MC/5
  • 2019: Tyrell Hatton: 33/21/MC/14/6/43/59/MC/15/18/6/14
  • 2018: Justin Rose: 1/6/10/9/2/19/MC/2/2/4/8/3
  • 2017: Justin Rose: 65/12/MC/4/54/63/MC/10/10/2/10/1
  • 2016: Thorbjorn Olesen: 2/WD/MC/MC/MC/30/MC/MC/MC/50/MC/50
  • 2015: Victor Dubuisson: MC/MC/20/12/10/MC/MC/50/18/27/43/32
  • 2014: Brooks Koepka: 51/MC/MC/67/15/38/3/11/9/8/4/48
  • 2013: Victor Dubuisson: 61/MC/3/MC/53/MC/18/17/MC/3/17/44

With the exception of Thorbjorn Olesen, every winner had a top-10 finish or better in their last 8 starts and last year’s winner Martin Couvra had finished 5th a fortnight before at the Hainan Classic.

Event Form. To complete the circle, here’s the event form of our winners of the Turkish Airlines Open since its inception:

  • 2025: Martin Couvra: Debut
  • 2019: Tyrell Hatton: 19/26/10/16
  • 2018: Justin Rose: 3/1
  • 2017: Justin Rose: 3
  • 2016: Thorbjorn Olesen: 29/72/41
  • 2015: Victor Dubuisson: 1/15
  • 2014: Brooks Koepka: Debut
  • 2013: Victor Dubuisson: Debut

A sound tee-to-green game seems to be the most logical starting point with the reward for finding fairways likely to be an unobstructed route to the pin and, on the longer holes, the chance to attack the greens in two shots.

Those with a liking for Bermuda greens should enjoy putting here, however the overriding skill-set may be the ability to accept that par is a very good score on the majority of holes this week.

My selections are as follows:

Eugenio Chacarra 1.5pts EW 40/1 (6EW, 1/5) with BetMGM

In a week with plenty of unknowns and a course that seemingly negates the firepower of some of those at the top of the betting market, I’m starting my team of five a little further down the betting board with Eugenio Chacarra.

Like last week’s winner Bernd Wiesberger, Chacarra is an ex-LIV player plying his trade on the DP World Tour nowadays and the Spaniard is very much focussed on progressing to PGA Tour level at some point in the near future. A win at last year’s Hero Indian Open set the foundations for him to turn that dream into a reality, and at 17th on the Race to Dubai as we head toward the summer tournaments he’s in good shape if he can keep his foot to the floor.

That victory last March is interesting form for this week, as was his valiant defence of that same title a month ago where he finished 2nd behind man-of-the-moment Alex Fitzpatrick. Although stylistically quite different, the difficulty factor at DLF G&CC and this weeks test may well see similar names rising to the top of the leaderboard over the course of four days.

9th at the Korn Ferry Tour’s Tulum Championship meant that he had far more travelling to do ahead of last week’s China Open, so 33rd overall wasn’t a disaster and he’ll be far better acclimatised ahead of this week’s action in Turkey.

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Nathan Kimsey 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Although the evidence is sparse to say the least, Oliver Farr’s win here at National GC back in 2014 combined with the course description and specification would suggest that keeping out of trouble from off the tee is the best plan of attack around here, and to that end Nathan Kimsey makes a lot of appeal.

When we used to see him on the DP World Tour, Farr’s game was formed around finding fairways and Englishman Kimsey is no different, ranking 6th on Tour for Driving Accuracy for the season-to-date and showing good progress on that count after finishing 60th overall for 2025.

That metronomic approach has served him well so far in 2026, with finishes of 9th in Bahrain, 5th in Kenya, 9th in South African and 6th last week in China pushing the 33 year-old up to a creditable 30th in the Race to Dubai rankings at this stage in the season.

The Lincolnshire man led the field for both Driving Accuracy and GIR in that season’s best finish at Karen Country Club, another fiddly tree-lined affair, and he was almost as impressive last week in Shanghai, topping the fairways found count once again whilst hitting over 80% of greens for 5th on that metric.

An indifferent record in Turkey overall isn’t a concern given the change to a more amenable venue this week, and I can see Nathan seriously contending for his breakthrough DP World Tour title here this week.

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Francesco Molinari 1pt EW 66/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

The argument for Francesco Molinari is similar to that of Kimsey in terms of this course fitting his style of game, however whereas the Englishman’s career is on the ascendancy, the 2018 Open Champion is instead looking for something to reignite what’s been a steady slide since those heady days at the end of the last decade.

A starring role at the 2018 Ryder Cup followed Molinari’s success at Carnoustie with both performances sandwiched between his two regular PGA Tour victories at the 2018 Quicken Loans National and the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational, however since then it’s been a barren spell with no wins and the eventual loss of his PGA Tour card.

At the age of 43 perhaps there’s a little life in the old dog yet though. 10th at the Nedbank to complete his 2025 outings was positive, as was 4th at the Dubai Desert Classic at Rolex Series level. 6th last time out at the Indian Open showed the kind of guile and resilience that may well be required this week to card rounds of 72, 72, 71, 70, and he arrives here in typically metronomic form, ranking 12th on Tour for Driving Accuracy and 4th for SG Approach.

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Kiradech Aphibarnrat 1pt EW 110/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

A little further down the betting, I’ll also take a chance on Kiradech Aphibarnrat whose improvement last week in China was noteworthy.

A 2026 campaign that had seen the burly Thai record nothing better than 34th in Kenya from 8 starts, last week’s tie for 13th was undoubtedly a big step forward, punctuated by Friday and Sunday rounds of 66 as he recorded his best finish for 12 months.

In truth there have been some clues statistically that he was playing some nice golf without tying all aspects of his game together. 8th to halfway in Kenya was fuelled by 2nd for fairways found, and he was 7th after 36 holes the following week in South Africa before fading once again. 20th into Sunday in New Delhi could have been far better were it not for a nightmare Sunday, however since that point in time we’ve seen progress with his GIR performances and a warming with the putter to suggest he’s not far from putting it all together once week and challenging for a title.

For me, Aphibarnrat is a traditional-style golfer who likes to shape his ball and is well suited to tracks where strategy outweighs brute force. 2nd at Wentworth in 2021 springs to mind for a strong effort on a tree-lined course and he might just sneak into the paying places here this week.

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Dylan Naidoo 0.5pt EW 700/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally I’ll take a very speculative punt on Dylan Naidoo who’s available at a huge price to build on his South African Open victory last year by winning another DP World Tour title.

Never the most consistent of players – if we’re being polite – the 28 year-old popped up to win his home Open last year at Durban on a short course with a classical vibe to it at 300/1, and we’re getting double that price this week or more if you’re brave enough to go with fewer each-way places.

Whereas he’d finished 2nd in Mauritius the previous December to give a vague and distant clue that he could be competitive when everything clicked, this year has been even patchier which is why we’re getting the price here this week. Nothing better than a tie for 54th in Bahrain from his first 7 starts of this year hardly instils confidence, however 23rd at the Mediclinic Invitational on the Sunshine Tour with four rounds in the 60s may have just sparked some confidence and he backed that up with 25th last week in China. In isolation that may not sound much, however 11th for SG Off the Tee last week was backed up with 4th for both =SG Approach and SG Tee to Green – as well as 6th for Driving Accuracy and 2nd for GIR in old money. If he can repeat that and find a spark with the putter than perhaps he’ll make a mockery of his dismissive odds.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:10BST 27.4.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.