Paul Williams

Paul Williams' US Open FRL Tips 2023

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Check out our First Round Leader form stats, history stats and tee times here.

The First Round Leader (FRL) market is fascinating given there are many ways to review the data to hand.

How does the weather forecast impact conditions? Will it be softer earlier, firmer later, windier for some, warmer for others? What tee times have the recent FRL winners had? Have the recent FRL winners started well in this event in the past? Have the recent FRL winners started well in their recent events; have they even been playing well in recent events?

Lots of questions and the odd red herring along the way I’m sure, however I think there are a few factors to consider which might help point us in the right direction.

First up the weather: The latest weather forecast for Los Angeles is here.

The Marine Layer will keep the course from firming up too much for the early starters, accompanied by little or no wind. As the sun burns off the cloud cover by lunchtime, the breeze picks up a little as the temperature rises, although there’s nothing of particular note in terms of wind strength (5-10mph) or temperature (high 60s Fahrenheit).

With LA Country Club never having hosted a US Open before, we’re going to have to rely on US Open history only this week, and going back to 2011 the morning wave has produced 10 of the 17 players who either led or co-led after day 1 in this event.

The exceptions to the rule were Rory McIlroy who shot 65 to lead on his own in 2011; Martin Kaymer who equalled that score 3 years later; Scott Piercy and Ian Poulter who tied for the lead with Dustin Johnson and Russell Henley courtesy of rounds of 69 in 2018; Justin Rose who shot 65 in 2019 from an afternoon tee time at Pebble Beach; Louis Oosthuizen who equalled Russell Henley’s earlier round of 67 from a 1.47pm tee time at Torrey Pines; and Adam Hadwin whose 66 last year beat a quartet of players who’d already posted 67 in the morning.

As per the outright market, there’s some each-way value to be found in the FRL market too with Unibet and Boylesports offering 7 places each way, 1/5 odds for this market. Details of their new customer offer can be found below:

My First Round Leader selections are as follows:

Justin Rose 1pt EW 50/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Unibet

  • US Open Starts: 17
  • US Open FRL Best: 1st (2019)
  • US Open FRL Top-7s: 5
  • Last 6 Event FRL Form: 32/13/5/10/33/14
  • Tee Time: 8.02am

A veteran of 17 US Opens dating all the way back to 2003, Justin Rose still has what it takes to appear at the top end of the leaderboard in elite company.

The Englishman’s 2013 victory at Merion didn’t follow one of his fastest starts in this event having sat in 16th place after day one, however there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that he can get out of the blocks quickly this week.

5th after day 1 in 2007 (Oakmont), 2nd in 2012 (Olympic Club), 6th in 2018 (Shinnecock), 1st in 2019 (Pebble Beach) and 7th last year (Brookline) are all impressive Thursday efforts for Rose who’s also get previous at the PGA Championship (3 FRL top 5s), the Open (2 FRL top 5s) and at Augusta (4 FRLs).

Recent form in general has been strong, winning at Pebble Beach in February and finishing inside the top 12 on each of his last 3 starts, including in Canada last week where he sat in a tie for 2nd heading into Sunday before eventually finishing 8th.

A nice early tee time alongside Rickie Fowler and Jason Day could well encourage some strong scoring across the group, hopefully with Rose coming out on top. RESULT: T143

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Tommy Fleetwood 1pt EW 55/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

  • US Open Starts: 7
  • US Open FRL Best: 4th (2017)
  • US Open FRL Top-7s: 1
  • Last 6 Event FRL Form: 37/29/1/38/51/29
  • Tee Time: 7.40am

Yes, I’ve backed Tommy Fleetwood in the FRL market at The Masters and the US PGA Championship to no avail so far in 2023; however I’ll stick with him one final time this week in Los Angeles.

4th and 2nd overall at the US Opens hosted at Erin Hills and Shinnecock respectively, the Englishman produced his best FRL performance at the former, opening with a round of 67 to sit 4th after the first 18 holes, and a similar performance this week wouldn’t go amiss.

3rd after Thursday’s round at the 2019 US PGA Championship was matched at that year’s Open Championship with an identical position – Tommy can and regularly does get out of the blocks quickly, a point he underlined when co-leading The PLAYERS Championship last year after the first day alongside Tom Hoge.

Two further FRL wins in his last 19 strokeplay starts globally is further testament to the fact that he’s a regular threat in this market, leading the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth back September before repeating the feat at Quail Hollow last month.

Of course there’s last week’s disappointment of losing out to Nick Taylor in the Canadian Open play-off to overcome, however kicking off his US Open campaign with a strong start may go some way to making him feel better about it all, particularly as he’s clearly playing some great golf right now and could equally be in contention come Sunday afternoon. RESULT: T107

Corey Conners 1pt EW 66/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Unibet

  • US Open Starts: 4
  • US Open FRL Best: 33rd (2020)
  • US Open FRL Top-7s: 0
  • Last 6 Event FRL Form: 45/47/36/2/93/1
  • Tee Time: 8.02am

Although it’s not quite happened for Corey Conners at the US Open – with 4 weekends off from 4 attempts that’s a little on the polite side – he’s nevertheless got the game to compete and contend at this kind of test, and when he eventually does that it’s likely to be fuelled by a fast start.

In truth the Canadian’s US Open record is somewhat of an anomaly: 2 top-20 finishes at the US PGA Championship (FRL 1st and 2nd from 5 starts) and 3 top-10s at Augusta (FRL 7th in 2022) would suggest that he’s quite capable and comfortable at elite level and I’d suggest it’s only a matter of time before he improves markedly on his record in this event, perhaps as early as this week.

The 31 year-old has been often popped up with a low first round over his career, even as early as his Latinoamerica Tour efforts when he shot 63 to lead at the 2016 Colombia Open. Further Thursday leads at the 2018 Valspar Championship, 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational, 2021 US PGA as already mentioned, this year’s Texas Open, and most recently last week on home soil all bode well for a player whose accurate game combined with an early tee time could see him fare well once again on the opening day this week. RESULT: T38

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:25BST 13.6.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.