Check out our First Round Leader form stats, history stats and tee times here.
The First Round Leader (FRL) market is fascinating given there are many ways to review the data to hand.
How does the weather forecast impact conditions? Will it be softer earlier, firmer later, windier for some, warmer for others? What tee times have the recent FRL winners had? Have the recent FRL winners started well in this event in the past? Have the recent FRL winners started well in their recent events; have they even been playing well in recent events?
Lots of questions and the odd red herring along the way I’m sure, however I think there are a few factors to consider which might help point us in the right direction.
The latest weather forecast for Oakmont is here.
Thursday will be perfect for playing golf with barely a cloud in the sky and only a breath of wind all day. Temperatures will rise from around 19 Centigrade (66 Fahrenheit) for the early starters to 30 Centigrade (86 Fahrenheit) for those teeing off in the afternoon.
First up some history, and going back to 2011 the morning wave has produced 13 of the 21 players who either led or co-led after day 1 in this event, including last year when Patrick Cantlay produced a sparkling round of 65 from a 7.40am tee time, only to see that score matched in the afternoon by Rory Mcilroy from a 1.14pm start.
The other exceptions to the rule were Rory McIlroy who shot 65 to lead on his own in 2011; Martin Kaymer who equalled that score 3 years later; Scott Piercy and Ian Poulter who tied for the lead with Dustin Johnson and Russell Henley courtesy of rounds of 69 in 2018; Justin Rose who shot 65 in 2019 from an afternoon tee time at Pebble Beach; Louis Oosthuizen who equalled Russell Henley’s earlier round of 67 from a 1.47pm tee time at Torrey Pines; and Adam Hadwin whose 66 in 2022 beat a quartet of players who’d already posted 67 in the morning.
The 2016 US Open held here at Oakmont records another morning starter as the first round leader, however that doesn’t tell the whole story as weather interruptions meant that he finished his final hole on the Friday morning and those with original PM tee times effectively played as AM starters on Friday morning. For completeness, the original tee times of the leading players after round 1 were as follows:
- Andrew Landry, 66: 6.56am
- Lee Westwood, 67: 8.13am
- Dustin Johnson, 67: 1.36pm
- Sergio Garcia, 68: 1.36pm
- Shane Lowry, 68: 8.35am
- Scott Piercy, 68: 1.03pm
With nothing untoward in the weather forecast, the only conceivable advantage that the morning wave could have is softer greens which may be offset to some degree by warmer temperatures in the afternoon. With the greens offering the sternest of tests, I’ll err a little on the side of earlier starters given the putting surfaces should be a little ‘easier’ in the early part of the day, and as such 2 of my 3 players play in the morning wave.
My First Round Leader selections are as follows:
