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Steve Bamford's US Open Tips 2025

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US Open Tips 2025

The US Open returns to Oakmont Country Club, Pennsylvania in 2025. The US Open has a history of visiting the most challenging classical golf courses across the country and 2025 is no exception, with the United States Golf Association’s (USGA) selecting Oakmont Country Club as the host course.

This will be the 10th US Open held at the course, which is located just outside of Pittsburgh, from Thursday 12th June to Sunday 15th June. Previous winners here include Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller, Larry Nelson, Ernie Els, Angel Cabrera and Dustin Johnson.

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Now into our 16th season, Golf Betting System will as ever be hunting for profit with our US Open tips from Paul Williams and Steve Bamford. Golf Betting System has full 2025 coverage with US Open tips, long-shot and alternative market selections, a full range of free course and player statistics, plus of course our famous free statistical Predictor Model. You can also listen to our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), which is also available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and on the Steve Bamford Golf Channel, as well as across all popular podcast players.

Recent US Open history features a new breed of champions with first time Major winners galore. Indeed going back to 2009, 12 of the last 16 champions had never captured a Major title.

2023 saw relative unknown Wyndham Clark hit the big time. Winning his first PGA Tour title in early May at the Wells Fargo Championship, he then took out the U.S. Open 6 weeks later at 66/1. Prior to winning his best Major Championship finish had been T75.

2022 saw Matt Fitzpatrick win at 25/1 at the same Brookline course where he’d won the US Amateur 9 years earlier.  2021 saw Jon Rahm win his maiden Major title as the 9/1 favourite on the course where he won his first PGA Tour title back in 2017. In 2020, Bryson DeChambeau bludgeoned his way around Winged Foot to capture his first Major title – in doing so becoming only the second ever winner to average over 320 yards off the tee when winning a Major. 2019 saw Gary Woodland capture his first Major victory at the iconic Pebble Beach. Off the back of consecutive PGA Championship top-8 finishes, Woodland delivered a masterclass of long, straight driving and elite-level ball-striking at Pebble, holding off modern-day US Open king Brooks Koepka.

Brooks triumphed at both the 2017 and 2018 renewals held at the contrived Erin Hills and the classical faux-links at Shinnecock Hills. He hits the ball a mile, but undoubtedly has the patience, approach play and short game to tame tough golf courses. Before Brooks, 2016 saw the buccaneering Dustin Johnson show huge mental resolve to capture his first Major, despite being told on the 12th tee of the final round that he was being assessed for a one-shot penalty, sustained for his ball moving on the 5th green as he was addressing his putt.

2015 saw 21 year-old Jordan Spieth win back-to-back Majors at a versatile Chambers Bay course which split the opinions of both players and the wider golfing public. 2014 saw Martin Kaymer in a class of his own as he made playing Pinehurst Number 2 look unnaturally easy on his way to winning his 2nd Major title. 2013 saw Justin Rose capture his first Major Championship with an emotional victory at Merion Golf Club. These victories followed on from first Major wins for Webb Simpson (Olympic Club 2012), Rory McIlroy (Congressional 2011), Graeme McDowell (Pebble Beach 2010) and Lucas Glover (Bethpage Black 2009).

Last year on this basis was an exception with Bryson DeChambeau capturing his second US Open at Pinehurst Number 2, taking advantage of Rory McIlroy’s late Sunday collapse. He joined Martin Kaymer, Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka (2018) who were all Major Champions when winning the US Open Championship.

So just who will be the 2025 US Open champion at this tough, classical, up-state test that is Oakmont Country Club?

US Open Insight and Tips Research

Golf betting at the Major Championships is a complex subject. Mistakes can be costly, however select the right player or player portfolio and the rewards can be excellent. Golf Betting System’s goal is to provide you with informed US Open tips, free tournament research guides, plus insight and information that will help you make educated decisions about what players to back at the 2025 US Open Championship.

Course Information:

Oakmont Country Club, Oakmont, Pennsylvania: Designer: Henry Fownes 1903 with Tom Fazio re-design 2006; Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner Renovation 2023; Course Type: Classical, Technical, Long; Par: 70; Length: 7,372 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 0; Number of Sand Bunkers: 168; Acres of Fairway: 27; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with Perennial Ryegrass and Poa Annua 5+”; Greens: 8,500 sq.ft average featuring Poa Annua; Tournament Stimp: 13ft.

Course Scoring Average:

  • 2016: 73.52 (+3.52), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 1 of 50 courses.

Oakmont Country Club will undoubtedly be a stern test in 2025 in its lengthened guise. No other course has held more United States Open Championships with this being the tenth time that the USGA have chosen to visit this part of Pennsylvania. At 7,372 yards – up circa 150 yards from 2016 – it’s obvious that in today’s modern game the course’s defence is not overall length. Instead Oakmont is defended by clever course design which includes the fastest Poa Annua putting surfaces on the circuit, severely canted green complexes, 170 bunkers of the deep variety, sloping fairways, a number of blind or semi-blind tee-shots, and traditional US Open-style Kentucky Bluegrass with Perennial Ryegrass and Poa Annua rough.

The fast greens grab a lot of the media attention pre-tournament and rightly so. 2007 winner Angel Cabrera mastered the greens and his close association with Augusta is worthy of note. 2016 winner Dustin Johnson also has a Green Jacket in his closet. Another aspect of the course which deserves note is its tactical usage of length. Oakmont contains the longest par-3 in US Open history with the 8th playing 289 yards. At its maximum this hole is on the edge of the shorter players’ driving distance ranges. It also includes two +600 yard, par-5s. It will be interesting to see if Rory or Bryson or Min Woo can even attempt to reach in two. 170-odd bunkers add bite and it’s interesting that one of the few changes from 2016 is the fact that rough has been reduced around those bunkers to maximise the number of captures. Rough has been described as treacherous and expect tough, non-graduated rough along the fairways.

Key areas of change from the Gil Hanse renovation include the addition of more than 24,000 square feet of green surface. Encouraged by a vocal club membership who are well known to want their course to play as difficult as possible, Hanse’s work has made the notoriously fast greens even harder. Expect far more pin locations and as Grounds Superintendent Mike McCormick says, “The greens are the No. 1 defence on the course. Oakmont, in today’s world, it’s not a crazy-long golf course. There are several holes out here where the players will be hitting wedges into and it puts even more of an emphasis on the greens.

The more notable changes besides the greens are a new-look fairway on the 7th hole which is a 485 yard, par-4. The new fairway now allows for 2 choices: 1) Play it safe and short to the right but settle for a blind approach, or 2) Aim left and carry a drive 320 yards over a fairway bunker that if executed correctly lets you see the pin on your approach with a short iron. I know what Bryson and Rory will be doing if the elements allow.

Other changes to note that will ratchet up the difficulty include the rough. We always discuss the length of the rough at each and every U.S. Open and in recent years we have seen graduated rough in play to alleviate the concerns of the players. That won’t be the case at Oakmont in 2025. The wet Pennsylvania spring has made it particularly thick, with the USGA topping it off at five inches – it will be higher as the championship progresses.

Gil Hanse has made the bunkering even more difficult – Oakmont is famous for its Church Pews bunker – with fairway bunkers now getting on for an automatic 1 shot penalty. Oakmont is also known for ditches which criss-cross the property. In 2016 the USGA carved out those ditches to where players could get in there and play. In 2025 that won’t be the case with 12 to 18 inch high native grasses making recovery shots a nightmare.

My summary is that the USGA and the Oakmont membership are in no mood to see scores under par for this year’s championship – 4 players went under par in 2016. So if the course stays dry, expect harder scoring than we have seen over recent years.

Oakmont Country Club is a Gil Hanse renovation.  Gil Hanse PGA Tour designs are listed below:

  • Aronimink Golf Club – 2019 BMW Championship
  • Colonial Country Club – 2024- 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge
  • Los Angeles Country Club – 2023 U.S. Open
  • Merion – 2013 U.S. Open
  • Plainfield CC – The Barclays – 2011 & 2015
  • Ridgewood CC – The Barclays / Northern Trust 2010, 2014 & 2018
  • Southern Hills CC – 2022 PGA Championship
  • The Country Club, Brookline – 2022 U.S. Open
  • Trump National Doral – 2014 through 2016 WGC Cadillac Championship
  • TPC Boston – Deutsche Bank / Dell Technologies Championship through 2018 plus 2020 Northern Trust
  • Winged Foot – 2020 U.S. Open

Below you can read some revealing player comments about Oakmont Country Club from both the 2007 and 2016 U.S. Open Championships held here:

Dustin Johnson (2016): “It’s always good to be playing well coming into a U.S. Open because you know it’s going to be tough. This is one place you really need to control your golf ball. You’ve got to control your spin and where you want the ball to land, so obviously, it’s a premium to hit the fairways because the rough’s thick and deep. You can get a decent lie every once in a while, but the majority of them, they sit down, and it’s tough to control it. And then the fairway bunkers are almost a penalty stroke too because they’re so deep, and the ball, you never really get that good of a lie. So I really think it’s important to hit the fairways here.

My bag doesn’t really change no matter what course I’m playing. I put a 2 iron in every once in a while, and I’ll take a wedge out. But this week, I’m going to play a 2 iron and just three wedges. Sometimes I go just driver, 3 wood, 3 iron, and then four wedges, just depending on the course. But this week, I do have a 2 iron in.

The greens. They’re so hard to putt. No matter how close you are to the hole, it’s just, they’re tough to putt. I mean, I hit so many good putts today that I thought were going in, and burned the edge or lip out. But that’s just how it goes. I mean, these greens are tough.

You’ve just got to hit the fairway on 15 and 18. Then 16 is a really tough par 3. And then 17, you know, it’s a short par 4, but it’s difficult. You’ve just got to kind of wherever the flag is, you’ve got to kind of have a game plan and stick to it. Today, with the back flag, I went for it and hit it in the right bunker, hit a great, you know, hit a good bunker shot. Got to eight feet, just short of it, which was fine, and lifted out from there. This morning, the pin was on the front just over the bunker and I laid up. So it just depends on how I’m feeling, which way the wind’s blowing. Just all depends.

Phil Mickelson (2016): “The reason why I’m optimistic about Oakmont is that it doesn’t require me to hit a lot of drivers. It requires me to get the ball in play off the tee, but when I’m not hitting drivers, if I’m hitting 3-woods, hybrids, I feel confident I’m able to do that a fairly high percentage of the time. I really think it is the hardest golf course we’ve ever played. A lot of golf courses, when it challenges you tee to green the way Oakmont does, it usually has a little bit of a reprieve on the greens, and you really don’t at Oakmont. They’re some of the most undulating, fast, difficult greens to putt. It really is the hardest golf course I think we’ve played.

Jordan Spieth (2016): “It’s going to take an extreme amount of patience and discipline off the tee. A lot of people talk about Oakmont’s greens but the most important thing I think for this year’s U.S. Open will be driving the golf ball. You don’t have to hit it very far. It will be helpful to hit it far and straight as it is anywhere, but you are going to have discipline to take iron off the tee, knowing you can hit 3-wood and still be ok. You just have to give yourself shots out of the fairway into a lot of these greens, given they slope front to back with false fronts. So you have to be coming out of the fairway with the right amount of spin. Your depth is thrown out on a lot of these holes because it’s well bunkered. Whether it’s an approach shot or a tee shot, there are some bunkers that you think are green-side, or you think you can fly them and actually it’s completely the opposite.

Ernie Els (2007): The most difficult US Open venue? I would say, you know, length-wise and toughness-wise, I still think Bethpage and Winged Foot, because those two golf courses are so long. You know, with this U.S. Open rough, it was really playing tough. This week, the golf course plays a bit shorter. There’s quite a little slope. So as I say, you can play different clubs off the tees. But the greens make up for it. These are the toughest greens we’ll ever play in U.S. Open history, or even any other golf tournament we play. With the rough and these greens, this is going to be a very, very tough test.”

Zach Johnson (2007): “Speed-wise, very, very similar to Augusta. They are very, very fast. The difficult part for me is the fact that you get on a Bentgrass or a Bermudagrass, where it is at Augusta, you see the breaks more, and you can see the speed based on the burnouts.

Here, this poa annua, it still looks lush and green and soft when you walk on it. So it makes it very difficult to judge speed, in my opinion. Given that, you know, the greens for the most part go one direction, and they are fast. So you know, I think all in all, it’s going to be a speed test and ones where you’re going to have to make a lot of 3- and 4- and 5-footers for comebacks. It’s going to be a remarkable test.”

Geoff Ogilvy (2007): “It’s a great property. It looks fantastic without any trees on it. Collection of the best greens I’ve seen anywhere. The bunkers are tough and the rough is really tough. It’s a great golf course. Difficulty? It all depends on how you set it up and where you put pin positions. Could you set this golf course up easy if you want to — I know the members don’t like to hear that, but if you put the pins on the low parts of the greens and had the rough playable, there would be quite a lot of birdies out there. But if you put the pins on the high parts of the greens where you can’t get anywhere near, and with the rough like it is, it could be the hardest course in the world with no wind. You know, with no wind involved, it’s incredible how hard this golf course can play.

“The greens here are the obvious challenge to me. Everything else out there is similar U.S. Open. It’s narrowish fairways, pretty good rough, bunkers, and the greens here are something different. They are amazing greens. I mean, they are probably some of my favourite greens I’ve ever seen. They run a bit faster than maybe they should in spots. The key here is to keep it inside the rough and to keep it under the hole on the green. You’re probably better off even off the green under the hole than you are on the green above the hole.”

us open tips

Oakmont: A test where long-range aggression is rewarded.

Ball Striker's Paradise

Let’s take the final skill statistics from Angel Cabrera and Dustin Johnson from the latest 2007 and 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont. This gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2016, Dustin Johnson (-4). 317 yards (1st), 64.3% fairways (18th), 76.4% greens in regulation (1st), 76.5 % scrambling (1st), 1.87 putts per GIR (43rd).
  • 2007, Angel Cabrera (+5). 311 yards (2nd), 48.2% fairways (48th), 65.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 36.8 % scrambling (40th), 1.72 putts per GIR (10th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

  • Driving Distance: 2nd, Driving Accuracy: 33rd, Greens in Regulation: 2nd, Scrambling: 21st, Putting Average 27th.

In Dustin Johnson, Angel Cabrera and before that Ernie Els, Oakmont has across the past three US Opens been best tackled by a mix of power and consistent iron-play approaches into its notorious green complexes. It makes sense that there’s an advantage for those that drive the ball a long way at Oakmont, as they can approach the greens with more loft in their hands plus attack the driveable Par 4s. A must with Poa Annua greens that run astronomically fast. Accuracy man Jim Furyk features at the top of both the 2007 and 2016 leaderboard, giving credence to the train of thought that grinders can prosper, but in Els, Cabrera and Johnson longer players who are prepared to take risks and can hit plenty of greens finally took the title.

Northeastern Major Championship Results since 2013.

9 Major Championships have been played in the Northeastern United States since the start of 2013. New York has staged 4 Majors, Pennsylvania and New Jersey 2 Majors apiece, with Massachusetts holding one, going back to the 2013 U.S. Open won by Justin Rose at Merion. Nationality wise, Justin and Matt Fitzpatrick have been the only non-Americans to triumph, with Jason Dufner, Dustin Johnson, Jimmy Walker, Brooks Koepka (x2) and Bryson DeChambeau all being victorious for the home nation.

Below you’ll find the top 10 finishers across those 9 Majors held in the Northeastern United States since 2013.

2023 PGA Championship – East Course, Oak Hill Country Club, Pittsford, New York

  • 1st: Brooks Koepka; 2nd: Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler; 4th: Cam Davis, Bryson DeChambeau, Kurt Kitayama; 7th: Rory McIlroy, Sepp Straka; 9th Patrick Cantlay, Justin Rose, Cameron Smith.

2022 U.S. Open – The Country Club, Brookline, Massachusetts

  • 1st: Matt Fitzpatrick; 2nd: Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris; 4th: Hideki Matsuyama; 5th: Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa; 7th: Keegan Bradley, Adam Hadwin, Denny McCarthy; 10th Joel Dahmen, Gary Woodland.

2020 U.S. Open – West Course, Winged Foot, Mamaroneck, New York

  • 1st: Bryson DeChambeau; 2nd: Matthew Wolff; 3rd: Louis Oosthuizen; 4th: Harris English; 5th: Xander Schauffele; T6: Dustin Johnson, Will Zalatoris; T8: Tony Finau, Zach Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Justin Thomas.

2019 PGA Championship – Black Course, Bethpage State Park, Farmingdale, New York

  • 1st: Brooks Koepka; 2nd: Dustin Johnson; T3: Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Matt Wallace; 6th: Luke List; 7th: Sung Kang; T8: Matt Kuchar, Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Erik van Rooyen, Gary Woodland.

2018 U.S. Open – Shinnecock Hills GC, Shinnecock Hills, New York

  • 1st: Brooks Koepka; 2nd: Tommy Fleetwood; 3rd: Dustin Johnson; 4th: Patrick Reed; 5th: Tony Finau; T6: Daniel Berger, Tyrrell Hatton, Xander Schauffele, Henrik Stenson; T10: Justin Rose, Webb Simpson.

2016 PGA Championship – Lower Course, Baltusrol, Springfield, New Jersey

  • 1st: Jimmy Walker; 2nd: Jason Day; 3rd: Daniel Summerhays; T4: Branden Grace, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama; T7: Martin Kaymer, Henrik Stenson, Robert Streb; T10: Paul Casey, Tyrrell Hatton, William McGirt.

2016 U.S. Open – Oakmont Country Club, Oakmont, Pennsylvania

  • 1st: Dustin Johnson; T2: Jim Furyk, Shane Lowry, Scott Piercy; T5: Sergio Garcia, Brendan Grace; Woodland; 7th: Kevin Na; T8: Jason Day, Jason Dufner, Zach Johnson, Daniel Summerhays.

2013 PGA Championship – East Course, Oak Hill Country Club, Pittsford, New York

  • 1st: Jason Dufner; 2nd: Jim Furyk; 3rd: Henrik Stenson; 4th: Jonas Blixt; T5: Adam Scott, Scott Piercy; 7th: David Toms; T8: Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Zach Johnson, Rory McIlroy.

2013 U.S. Open – Merion Golf Club, Ardmore, Pennsylvania

  • 1st: Justin Rose; T2: Jason Day, Phil Mickelson; T4: Jason Dufner, Ernie Els, Billy Horschel, Hunter Mahan; T8: Luke Donald, Steve Stricker; T10 Nicolas Colsaerts, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama.

Northeastern United States Pedigree

Another intriguing aspect to the last 9 winners of Major Championships held in the Northeastern United States is a proven track record in the area prior to capturing their title. Now the degree of pedigree varies across champions – as it would with winning prices which vary from 16/1 (Dustin Johnson) to 150/1 (Jimmy Walker) – but what is irrefutable is that every winner of a Major Championship held in this area since the start of 2013 had previous wins or top 12 finishes in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York or Pennsylvania, prior to lifting their respective trophy.

Brooks Koepka – 2023 PGA Championship Winner

  • 5th – 2021 Travelers Championship – TPC River Highlands
  • 1st – 2019 PGA Championship – Oak Hill CC
  • 1st – 2018 U.S. Open – Shinnecock Hills
  • 4th – 2016 PGA Championship – Baltusrol
  • 9th – 2016 Travelers Championship – TPC River Highlands

Matt Fitzpatrick – 2022 U.S. Open Winner

  • 12th – 2018 U.S. Open – Shinnecock

Bryson DeChambeau – 2020 U.S. Open Winner

  • 8th –     2019 Travelers Championship – TPC River Highlands
  • 1st –     2018 Dell Technologies Championship – TPC Boston
  • 1st –     2018 Northern Trust – Ridgewood – New Jersey
  • 8th –     2018 Travelers Championship – TPC River Highlands

Brooks Koepka – 2019 PGA Championship Winner

  • 1st –     2018 U.S. Open – Shinnecock Hills
  • 4th –     2016 PGA Championship – Baltusrol
  • 9th –     2016 Travelers Championship – TPC River Highlands

Brooks Koepka – 2018 U.S. Open Winner

  • 4th –     2016 PGA Championship – Baltusrol
  • 9th –     2016 Travelers Championship – TPC River Highlands

Jimmy Walker – 2016 PGA Championship Winner

  • 9th –     2014 Deutsche Bank Championship – TPC Boston
  • 5th –     2009 Turning Stone Championship – Atunyote GC

Dustin Johnson – 2016 U.S. Open Winner

  • 9th –     2015 The Barclays – Plainfield
  • 8th –     2013 PGA Championship – Oak Hill
  • 4th –     2012 Deutsche Bank Championship – TPC Boston
  • 3rd –    2012 The Barclays – Bethpage Black
  • 1st –     2011 The Barclays – Plainfield
  • 9th –     2010 The Barclays – Ridgewood
  • 4th –     2009 Deutsche Bank Championship – TPC Boston
  • 1st –     2008 Turning Stone Championship – Atunyote GC

Jason Dufner – 2013 PGA Championship Winner

  • 4th –     2013 U.S. Open – Merion
  • 2nd –    2009 Deutsche Bank Championship – TPC Boston

Justin Rose – 2013 U.S. Open Winner

  • 6th –     2011 The Barclays – Plainfield
  • 1st –     2010 AT&T National – Aronimink
  • 9th –     2010 The Travelers – TPC River Highlands
  • 4th –     2006 Deutsche Bank Championship – TPC Boston
  • 3rd –    2005 Buick Championship – TPC River Highlands
  • 3rd –    2003 Deutsche Bank Championship – TPC Boston

Key Player Statistics To Look Out For

In this day and age of statistics it’s interesting to look at what inbound player skill strengths, if any, are particularly shared by US Open winners. Naturally this cannot be an exact science as the US Open moves from course-to-course, with venues changing in terms of key requirements required by the eventual winner. Nothing highlights that more than a striking difference between Shinnecock Hills, Pebble Beach, Winged Foot, Torrey Pines, Brookline, Los Angeles Country Club and Pinehurst Number 2 over the past 7 US Open renewals. However there are definite patterns which are not exact, but definitely highlight trends.

For instance 14 of the last 18 winners of the U.S. Open ranked in the top 16 in the All-Round skill category in their last appearance. It’s also fact that no U.S. Open winner over the same timescale has been outside the top 18 for Greens in Regulation in the week they won. Naturally hitting your irons and approaches well is a huge upside.

But if we’re looking for strong skill sets in a winner’s previous appearance, we actually need to look for top-level driving. In Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Brooks Koepka (twice), Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Martin Kaymer and Justin Rose we have 8 players who ranked 1st, 18th, 3rd, 25th, 1st, 1st, 16th, 1st and 8th for Total Driving in their previous appearance. For Martin Kaymer that happened to be at Wentworth, so he has to be excluded from the Strokes Gained stat angle, but that Total Driving number also translates very well to Strokes Gained Off the Tee.

Here Fitzpatrick (2nd), DeChambeau (16th), Koepka (5th), Koepka (2nd), Johnson (4th), Spieth (5th) and Rose (13th) clearly had real confidence with the driver when they arrived at Brookline, Torrey Pines, Winged Foot, Shinnecock Hills, Erin Hills, Oakmont, Chambers Bay and Merion respectively. If the European Tour had a consistent Strokes Gained Stat back in 2014, Kaymer would have been very close to the top of it at Wentworth as well.

If we go back to 2010 and look at Graeme McDowell’s lead in to his U.S. Open victory, he played the Wales Open on the European Tour, which he won. That week he topped Greens in Regulation at 80.6%, was 15th for Total Driving and was 2nd in the All-Round category.

2019 U.S. Open champion Gary Woodland was 52nd in his previous appearance at the  Memorial Tournament, which showed absolutely no hint of a Pebble Beach victory, but even with Woodland the All-Round, Total Driving and Strokes Gained Off The Tee angle works when you extrapolate a little. Prior to Muirfield Village, Gary had finished 8th at the PGA Championship – that was his second Major top 10 in his last 3 attempts. At Bethpage Black he’d ranked 4th for All-Round, 7th for Total Driving and 7th for Strokes Gained Off The Tee.

Now 2020 champion Bryson DeChambeau muddies the waters again, although in Covid times it’s worth noting it was played in mid-September. DeChambeau undoubtedly struggled with his All-Round came on his previous outing at East Lake. However both his Strokes Gained Off the Tee and Greens in Regulation numbers were in decent enough shape.

Covid again impacts the trend with Jon Rahm in 2021. Remember Rahm was leading the Memorial Tournament by 6 shots heading into Sunday when he tested positive for Covid-19 and had to withdraw. To say he was miffed was an understatement. Look at his numbers through 54 holes and, as you would expect, they were top drawer. 1st for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 3rd for Total Driving and 1st for All-Round at the time of withdrawal, safe to say Jon was at the very peak of his powers and I’m inclined to use those numbers for U.S. Open research purposes ongoing.

2022 champion Matt Fitzpatrick played the week before the U.S. Open at the RBC Canadian Open at St George’s G&CC in Toronto, where he finished in 10th spot. 2nd for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 18th for Total Driving and 7th for All-Round, marked him as a top contender to capture his first Major Championship in Massachusetts a week later.

2023 champion Wyndham Clark last year played the Memorial Tournament a fortnight before the Los Angeles Country Club-hosted U.S. Open. 1st for Total Driving (translated to 40th for Off the Tee incredibly), 2nd for Greens in Regulation and 3rd for All-Round was a beacon that if you overlooked his lack of Major experience. He would go on to win at a whopping 66/1.

And to bring this full circle, Bryson DeChambeau last year played LIV Houston the week before the Pinehurst Number 2-hosted US Open. As per 2020, his lead in event wasn’t exactly black and white in terms of indicators of impeding success, but like many US Open winners he was top 16 for All-Round.

Key US Open Statistics

YearUS Open WinnerGIRPrevious EventAll Round RankTotal DrivingSG Off Tee
2024Bryson DeChambeau66.7% (33rd)LIV Houston16th27th35th
2023Wyndham Clark66.7% (2nd)Memorial3rd1st41st
2022Matt Fitzpatrick68.1% (16th)St Georges - Canada7th18th2nd
2021Jon Rahm68.5% (6th)Memorial - 54 Hole WD1st3rd1st
2020Bryson DeChambeau66.67% (13th)East Lake28th25th16th
2019Gary Woodland72.22% (2nd)Memorial40th39th66th
2018Brooks Koepka61.1% (33rd)St Jude25th25th5th
2017Brooks Koepka86.1% (1st)St Jude13th1st2nd
2016Dustin Johnson76.4% (1st)St Jude2nd1st4th
2015Jordan Spieth76.4% (6th)Memorial5th16th5th
2014Martin Kaymer62.5% (18th)BMW PGA1st1stN/A
2013Justin Rose69.4% (9th)Memorial8th8th13th
2012Webb Simpson58.8% (16th)MemorialMCMCMC
2011Rory McIlroy86.1% (1st)St Jude18th16th20th
2010Graeme McDowell80.6% (1st)Wales Open2nd15thN/A

 

 

Long and Not Particularly Straight

US Opens are traditionally all about the length of the rough. Every year from the Monday of tournament week we see videos on Social Media, with balls disappearing into rough and never reappearing! In every player interview prior to the off, the mantra is “got to keep the ball in the fairway,” and it’s continually repeated. The time old discussion point prior to US Opens is how does the USGA’s policy of +4 inch rough actually affect the outcome of the tournament. Long and straight works” is something I utter on our US Open Golf Betting System Podcast every year, but is that actually true?

Well a perusal of the last 10 winners’ season long statistics is quite revealing. Matt Fitzpatrick in 2022 was by far the shortest off the tee, ranking 91st for Driving Distance All Drives. Worth noting though that Fitzpatrick was undoubtedly work in progress in terms of his driving power, as he was 13th for Driving Distance at the RBC Canadian Open the week before, averaging a lengthy 310 yards off the tee.

Take Fitzpatrick out of the equation and taking 2015 through 2023 champions, Jordan Spieth was the shortest off the tee, although he ranked 43rd for Driving Distance All Drives – which is long enough. But from 2016 through 2023, it’s clear that brute power off the tee is a more than handy attribute to have. Dustin Johnson (2016), Brooks Koepka (2017/18), Gary Woodland (2019), Bryson DeChambeau (2020), Jon Rahm (2021) and Wyndham Clark (2023) all ranked in the top 17 for Driving Distance All Drives on the PGA Tour when arriving at their U.S. Open triumph.

Bryson DeChambeau last year complicates things on the basis he’s a LIV Golf League player. Slot his LIV driving stats into the PGA Tour numbers for comparison and DeChambeau would have been the longest on Tour and the 170th most accurate when arriving at Pinehurst Number 2.

US Open Driving

YearUS Open WinnerDriving AccuracyDriving DistanceDriving Distance All Drives
2024Bryson DeChambeau170th1stN/A
2023Wyndham Clark161st7th15th
2022Matt Fitzpatrick40th108th91st
2021Jon Rahm61st19th8th
2020Bryson DeChambeau140th1st1st
2019Gary Woodland79th13th17th
2018Brooks Koepka155th8th5th
2017Brooks Koepka154th7th3rd
2016Dustin Johnson138th2nd2nd
2015Jordan Spieth80th78th43rd

 

This is Steve’s pre-event preview for the 2025 US Open. Steve’s final US Open tips for 2025 will be published here around 18:00BST on the Monday of the event.

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