Congratulations if you were on-board Sam Burns (35/1) or Matt Wallace (25/1) last week. I was thankful to at least get a slice of a 30/1 each-way return on Ben Martin at the Corales.
On to the Valero Texas Open, which is this year’s curtain-raiser for The Masters. Played on a stretching +7,400 yard, Par 72 track in San Antonio, Texas, this Greg Norman design is no pushover. This tournament is a bit of a nomad in terms of its PGA Tour schedule position, but when its been played the week before The Masters we’ve seen Martin Laird, Corey Conners Jordan Spieth (we were on-board) and J.J. Spaun win at 100/1, 200/1, 16/1 and 200/1 respectively. The last Masters invite is also up for grabs for any non-qualified winner this week.
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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Valero Texas Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as The Masters approaches. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Guide: The Oaks course at TPC San Antonio is not your typical US golf course. This Greg Norman design is a stretching Par 72 measuring 7,438 yards and features tightish fairways at over 300 yards carry. Miss the fairway here and the rough is penal, plus there are all manner of natural hazards. Remember Kevin Na! Greens are undulating, multi-tiered and exotic in their grass structure featuring Champion Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis. Scoring difficulty, as is the norm in Texas, is dictated by wind strength and firmness of the course, but over recent renewals strategic sorts have been able to score nicely around here.
Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas: Designer: Greg Norman 2009; Course Type: Mid-Score; Long; Par: 72; Length: 7,438 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 3; Fairways: Perennial Ryegrass & Chewing Fescue; Rough: Ryegrass & Chewing Fescue 2.25″; Greens: 6,400 sq.ft average Champion Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimp: 11ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 73.97 (+1.97), Difficulty Rank 4 of 49 courses. 2013: 72.74 (+0.74), Difficulty Rank 15 of 43 courses. 2014: 73.29 (+1.29), Rank 8 of 48 courses. 2015: 74.52 (+2.52), Difficulty Rank of 2 of 52 courses. 2016: 72.21 (+0.21), Difficulty Rank of 17 of 50 courses. 2017: 72.85 (+0.85), Difficulty Rank of 10 of 50 courses. 2018: 72.37 (+0.35), Difficulty Rank of 12 of 51 courses. 2019: 71.24 (-0.76), Difficulty Rank 28 of 49 courses. 2021: 72.48 (+0.48), Difficulty Rank 15 of 51 courses. 2022: 71.76 (-0.24), Difficulty Rank 18 of 50 courses.
Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Greg Norman designs include:
Earth Course – DP World Tour Championship (DP World Tour)
El Camaleon GC – Mayakoba Classic
Signature Course, Vidanta – 2022 Mexico Open
TPC at Sugarloaf – 1997 – 2008 AT&T Classic
Course Overview: The Oaks Course layout is undoubtedly stretching, although 2018 to 2022 renewals of the Valero has seen scoring become more possible.
2018 saw organisers water the greens throughout, on the basis of strong winds across the opening 36 holes of play. That, in tandem with firm fairways, allowed for short and long hitters alike to strategically score around here with Andrew Landry winning with a tournament winning -17/271 total. 2019 saw 10-15 mph winds throughout and a 60mm deluge on Sunday, which delayed play and saw the surgical, strategic duo of Ryan Moore and Kevin Streelman shoot a pair of -8/64s.
Another ball-striking machine in the guise of Corey Conners won his maiden PGA Tour title at a course record low -20/268 total. 2021 saw Jordan Spieth use his approach and short game magic to master a set-up which always featured firm fairways and greens that released just enough. He won by 2 shots at -18/270, although only the top 5 made double-digits under par. And 2022 saw J.J. Spaun win his maiden PGA Tour title with strong overall Tee to Green game, where greens were releasing over the weekend amidst gusting 20 mph winds.
Fundamentally I still think that the Oaks Course makes you earn your rewards with strong driving and strong approach play. 2022 saw a shorter course yardage at 7,438 yards, down 56 yards. The par-3 3rd and par-5 14th holes have been shortened. The course will also feature all new bunkering after a Duininck Golf managed project started after Jordan Spieth won here in 2021.
This course though is still a stern test. A mixture of course length, intimidating tee shots, all manner of off-fairway hazards plus undulating green complexes make this course a challenge. Greens are also perched up with fairway cut around them, taking errant approaches into collection areas. It’s hardly a surprise then that the greens here traditionally rank in the top 10 hardest to hit on the PGA Tour.
Up until the last few renewals, I would have told you that power hitting is undoubtedly a huge advantage here, allowing the par-5s to be unlocked, and it’s noticeable that 4 of the previous 9 winners here have led par-5 scoring in the week they triumphed: Laird (2013), Walker (2015), Hoffman (2016) and Spieth (2021) shot -10, -12, -9 and -10 across their 16 looks at the long holes.
But Andrew Landry played a different kind of game here in 2018, scoring equally across the par-3s, par-4s and par-5s, shooting -6/-6/-5. Landry was 46th for Driving Distance that week, highlighting that average but straightish hitters can win around here.
In 2019 Corey Conners was middle of the road 28th for Driving Distance. Like Landry the year before he was in the top 10 for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, highlighting that straight, accurate hitting here is a great part of the ingredients needed for success, plus he scored strongly across the card -4/-8/-8. Shorter, straighter sorts can undoubtedly win here, which J.J. Spaun proved again here last year. 46th for Driving Distance but 9th for Driving Accuracy, he again highlighted that moderate distance / straighter sorts can gain significance strokes from Off the Tee. His scoring split was +2/-5-/10.
Typically Spieth breaks the mould slightly. 24th for Driving Distance, the key was that he was positive for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, meaning few huge errors from off the tee. That allowed his amazing fairway to hole game do the rest.
Finally when you look at the last 4 winners here, Chappell ranked 2nd for SG Approach, Landry 1st, Conners 1st and Spieth 4th. Spaun was a middle of the road 23rd. For me on a course that traditionally ranks as one of the hardest for Greens in Regulation when the wind blows, and also in the bottom 5 on Tour for par-5 Birdie or Better Conversion, we need to look for players who are at the top of their game iron- and approach-wise.
Valero Texas Open Winners: 2022: J.J. Spaun (-13); 2021: Jordan Spieth (-18); 2019: Corey Conners (-20); 2018: Andrew Landry (-17); 2017: Kevin Chappell (-12); 2016: Charley Hoffman (-12); 2015: Jimmy Walker (-11); 2014: Steven Bowditch (-8); 2013: Martin Laird (-14); 2012: Ben Curtis (-9); 2011: Brendan Steele (-8); 2010: Adam Scott (-14).
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Top 10 of my published predictor are: Si Woo Kim, Tyrrell Hatton, Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Aaron Rai, Corey Conners, Cam Davis, Matt Wallace, J.J. Spaun and Padraig Harrington.
2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 81. Variable wind 5-10 mph, with gusts to 15 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 83. Wind SE 12-16 mph, with gusts to 27 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 86. Wind NNE 8-13 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 87. Wind SSE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 70. Wind ENE 10-20 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 71. Wind ESE 8-16 mph. Saturday: Cloudy. High of 71. Wind ESE 10-20 mph. Due to thunderstorms, the start to the third round was delayed 2 hours,
30 minutes and began at 12:13 p.m. CT. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 75. Wind ESE 8-15 mph.
2019: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 85. Wind SW 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 82. Wind ESE 10-15 mph. Saturday: Overcast with intermittent showers throughout the day. High of 78. Wind SE 10-15 mph. Sunday: Due to inclement weather, the start to the final round was delayed from 9:40 a.m. until 11:40 a.m. Mostly cloudy in the afternoon. High of 72. Wind NNE 8-12 mph.
2018: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 78. Wind E 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 64. Wind SE 15-25 mph. Saturday: Cloudy, with scattered showers. High of 75. Wind SSE 8-16 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 78. Wind N 10-20 mph.
2017: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85. Wind SSE 10-20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 86. Wind SSE 15-25 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy and cooler, with a high of 67. Wind NNE 15-25, with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 74. Wind N 10-18 mph.
2016: Thursday: Overcast, with heavy rains in the morning. Due to inclement weather, the first round was suspended from 8:25 a.m. until 12 p.m. CT. Sunny in the afternoon, with wind NE at 5-10 mph. Due to darkness, play was suspended for the day at 8:10 p.m. and resumed at 8 a.m. Friday. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 81. Wind NE at 8-12 mph. Due to darkness, the second round was suspended at 8:11 p.m. and resumed at 8 a.m. Saturday. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 81. Wind ESE at 8-12 mph. Sunday: Cloudy, with a high of 77. Wind SSE at 7-12 mph.
2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 62. Wind SSW at 15-25 mph, with gusts to 38 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 77. Wind WSW at 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 78. Wind SSW at 7-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 82. Wind S at 15-25 mph.
Weather Forecast: latest weather forecast for San Antonio, Texas, is here.
Texas in April can be like 4 seasons in a single day and this year looks hot and windy. Southerly gusts of 30 mph on Thursday and Friday will give players all they want around the Oaks Course. There is also a 50% chance of thunderstorms on both days. Saturday will be moving day with calmer conditions expected. Sunday sees a return of the southerly wind gusting over 20 mph at points. Temperatures will reach up to 30 degrees Celsius (86 Fahrenheit) on Saturday, so expect firmer, faster conditions across the final 36 holes.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am / Ras Al Khaimah Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Nicolai Hojgaard; 2) Tyler Duncan; 3) M.J. Daffue / Carson Young; 5) Hayden Buckley / Tyrrell Hatton; 7) Michael Gligic; 8) Andrew Landry / Davis Thompson; 10) Ben Martin; 11) Si Woo Kim; 12) Luke List; 13) Brent Grant; 14) Corey Conners / Hideki Matsuyama; 16) Ryan Fox; 17) Adam Long; 18) Cam Davis / Aaron Rai; 20) Kramer Hickok / Michael Thompson; 22) Kevin Roy; 23) Lee Hodges; 24) James Hahn; 25) Brandon Wu.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Ricky Barnes; 2) Nicolai Hojgaard; 3) David Lingmerth; 4) Rickie Fowler / Ryan Fox / Tyrrell Hatton; 7) Akshay Bhatia; 8) Eric Cole; 9) Kevin Roy / Matt Wallace; 11) Ryan Moore; 12) Luke Donald; 13) Aaron Rai; 14) Tyler Duncan / Hank Lebioda; 16) Scott Harrington / Ben Martin; 18) Will Gordon / Charley Hoffman / Brandon Wu; 21) Michael Kim; 22) Ryan Palmer; 23) Chris Kirk; 24) Kevin Chappell / Pierceson Coody / Cole Hammer / Davis Riley / Sepp Straka.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Ben Griffin; 2) Byeong Hun An; 3) Austin Eckroat; 4) Zac Blair; 5) Matt Wallace; 6) Kevin Chappell / Chris Kirk; 8) Matt Kuchar; 9) Thomas Detry; 10) Garrick Higgo / Aaron Rai / Matthias Schwab / Nick Taylor; 14) Brendon Todd; 15) Lucas Glover; 16) Trevor Cone / Vincent Norrman; 18) Scott Harrington / Patrick Rodgers; 20) Hideki Matsuyama; 21) Cam Davis; 22) Nicolai Hojgaard; 23) Beau Hossler; 24) Alex Noren; 25) Mark Hubbard.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Tyrrell Hatton; 2) Nicolai Hojgaard; 3) Ryan Fox; 4) Aaron Rai; 5) Ben Martin; 6) Tyler Duncan / Scott Harrington; 8) Rickie Fowler; 9) M.J. Daffue / David Lingmerth / Sam Stevens; 12) Byeong Hun An / Si Woo Kim; 14) Cam Davis / Hideki Matsuyama / Kevin Roy; 17) Kevin Chappell; 18) Eric Cole; 19) Garrick Higgo / Chris Kirk / Nick Taylor; 22) Augusto Nunez; 23) Charley Hoffman; 24) Luke List; 25) Brandon Wu.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Sam Ryder; 2) Ricky Barnes; 3) Ben Taylor; 4) Lanto Griffin; 5) Taylor Montgomery; 6) Adam Schenk; 7) Rickie Fowler; 8) Andrew Novak / Andrew Putnam; 10) Chad Ramey / Richy Werenski; 12) Peter Malnati; 13) Ben Griffin; 14) Kramer Hickok; 15) Pierceson Coody; 16) Harrison Endycott / Alex Noren; 18) Ryan Fox / Nick Taylor; 20) Ryan Moore; 21) J.J. Spaun; 22) Chesson Hadley / Tyrrell Hatton; 24) Cameron Champ / Padraig Harrington.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Nicolai Hojgaard; 2) Tyrrell Hatton; 3) Ryan Fox; 4) Rickie Fowler; 5) Ben Martin; 6) Kevin Chappell; 7) Akshay Bhatia / Sam Ryder / Sam Stevens; 10) Ricky Barnes / Michael Kim; 12) Byeong Hun An; 13) M.J. Daffue / Nick Taylor; 15) Si Woo Kim; 16) Kramer Hickok; 17) Eric Cole / Tyler Duncan / Kevin Roy; 20) Ben Griffin; 21) Chris Kirk / Adam Schenk / Carson Young; 24) Scott Harrington / Padraig Harrington.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Valero Texas Open winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2022, J.J. Spaun (-13). SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 23rd, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 17th.
2021, Jordan Spieth (-18). SG Off the Tee: 38th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 6th.
2019, Corey Conners (-20). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 58th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 26th.
2018, Andrew Landry (-17). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 33rd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 8th.
2017, Kevin Chappell (-12). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 32nd, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 21st.
2016, Charley Hoffman (-12). SG Off the Tee: 8th, SG Approach: 16th, SG Around the Green: 49th, SG Tee to Green: 10th, SG Putting: 4th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 12th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 31st, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 14th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Valero Texas Open winners since 2018 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this tough, desert golf test:
2022, J.J. Spaun (-13). 305 yards (46th), 64.3% fairways (9th), 66.7% greens in regulation (16th), 38’3″ proximity to hole (30th), 58.3 % scrambling (57th), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st).
2021, Jordan Spieth (-18). 307 yards (23rd), 51.8% fairways (49th), 58.3% greens in regulation (57th), 35’10” proximity to hole (29th), 80.0 % scrambling (4th), 1.52 putts per GIR (1st).
2019, Corey Conners (-20). 302 yards (28th), 64.3% fairways (7th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 28’8″ proximity to hole (2nd), 30.8 % scrambling (70th), 1.53 putts per GIR (1st).
2018, Andrew Landry (-17). 298 yards (46th), 58.9% fairways (29th), 73.6% greens in regulation (1st), 33’11” proximity to hole (7th), 78.9 % scrambling (2nd), 1.60 putts per GIR (4th).
2017, Kevin Chappell (-12). 297 yards (25th), 58.9% fairways (35th), 72.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 35’7″ proximity to hole (10th), 65.0 % scrambling (26th), 1.69 putts per GIR (14th).
2016, Charley Hoffman (-12). 301 yards (4th), 64.3% fairways (34th), 68.1% greens in regulation (17th), 37’8″ proximity to hole (47th), 65.2 % scrambling (42nd), 1.59 putts per GIR (2nd).
2015, Jimmy Walker (-11). 303 yards (4th), 53.6% fairways (45th), 70.8% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 38’10” (16th), 61.9 % scrambling (27th), 1.65 putts per GIR (5th).
2014, Steven Bowditch (-8). 297 yards (15th), 51.8% fairways (49th), 61.1% greens in regulation (15th), proximity to hole 39’7″ (51st), 71.4 % scrambling (11th), 1.64 putts per GIR (5th).
2013, Martin Laird (-14). 298 yards (20th), 66.1% fairways (8th), 69.4% greens in regulation (7th), proximity to hole 36’1″ (37th), 63.6% scrambling (37th), 1.60 putts per GIR (4th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 23rd, Driving Accuracy: 29th, Greens in Regulation: 13th, Proximity to Hole: 25th, Scrambling: 31st, Putting Average 4th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how the Oaks Course sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
J.J. Spaun (2022): “I think the heat makes the course a lot different. The ball goes further, some of these par 5s play a lot shorter and obviously the firmness, so it’s definitely different than the last five years I’ve been out here.“
“Yeah, the wind picked up like kind of right when we made the turn. It was kind of blowing all day, but then it picked up heavier around the first and second hole, which is our back nine. Yeah, just made it tougher to hit fairways and guessing, most of it was like crosswinds, too, so you know, if you started too far in one direction, you can short-side yourself. It definitely picked up our last seven, eight holes.”
“I just pulled my drive into the trees. Had a shot and I had this huge rock right in front of my ball and I don’t know if that made the ball draw or not, but it drew left of the hole, which is the last place you want to be. And then I tried to bump it into the hill and that went over the green on the other side. Then I kind of left like a pretty straightforward chip like 15 feet short and just like an easy double. Yeah, it was just one of those holes where it could have been a lot better, but ended up being a lot worse.”
Jordan Spieth (2021): “In the fairway on 8, if you told my I could play in even par, I would have taken it, so no reason to get too upset on 9. I did for sure steal one. I had 208 to that back right pin. I was trying to just kind of cut it into the breeze and have it come down short of the ridge. The wind kind of stopped, so it got all the way back there and took advantage. I won’t make many birdies from that far out on that hole very often.
So I really like the way I played 18 today. Driver, 3-wood onto that green, and to hold that green is really, really challenging. I can use those couple swings for some confidence into tomorrow.”
Corey Conners (2019): “Yeah, it was great. I hit the ball really well. Never really got myself out of position except for No. 10, where I drove it a little right. Other than that, it was really solid ball-striking. I was able to make some putts. Basically took care of the holes that you need to take care of, the par 5s, and No. 5, a short par 4, I was able to make birdie. Other than that, just kept it pretty simple. There’s a few pins that are close to some slopes, so played a little safer on some shots, but struck it really well. So just tried to keep it simple and scored well.”
Andrew Landry (2018): “This is a good golf course for me, it sets up well for my driving. You’ve got to be pretty accurate out here. Like you said, the rough, I don’t know what happened but the overseed might have not came in as good as I guess they wanted and you can get some pretty sketchy you lies around those greens. Not sketchy as in it’s in bad shape, but sketchy as in the ball sits down and you’re having to hit some higher shots on some tight lies. But I luckily avoided all those today and I think I had maybe one and I made a par with it.
This place, all around the greens it’s really tough right now, tee shots as well. The wind’s kind of swirling all over the place. The greens, they’ve been really receptive this week. And I went to a new set of irons this week, new shafts, and it’s just made a total difference with being able to get spin on the ball and the height of it that’s coming in, I’ve been able to stop a lot more long irons now. It’s just been nice. It’s been a good treat that I’m finally getting some good golf shots out of it and here we are.”
Kevin Chappell (2017): “Missing it in the right spots is the key. It was windy enough you had to really think about what shots you can take on and, if you did, getting the ball in the right place. I was fortunate to be chipping back into the wind a lot and that made it a lot easier. The ball – it’s warm and windy is the recipe to hit the ball really far. So, we hit a few shots went 10, 15 yards further than we thought they would. Into the kind the ball is going nowhere because it’s blowing so hard. It’s a good mixture on this golf course, lot of holes run north/south. With the wind blowing out of south today, you know, you had a good mixture of both. For me I played enough rounds around here that I probably played every wind they have. So, you know, I look forward to the challenge. My game tends to rise in more difficult conditions so I look forward to that on the weekend.”
Charley Hoffman (2016): “Tee to green is very visual, shapes with the trees and it’s a tough driving golf course. I usually drive it pretty good and got to be accurate when you’re hitting in there. For some reason I’ve been able to roll the putter. Conditions are a lot different than normal. Usually you’re trying to land them short, today you’re trying to get them past the hole and suck them back. No rough, no overseeding. Premium on driving isn’t quite as much. You can hit them in the rough and have a shot at the green. There’s low scores out there, still going to make some putts in the right spots.”
Jimmy Walker (2015): “I still think the greens are going to stay relatively firm. Even talking to some guys yesterday that played that even after the rain, they were still getting some nice bounces and release after the rain. The fairways were obviously kind of not running as well. The rough isn’t like it was last year. Last year it was overseeded. This year they didn’t and the Bermuda has come back but hasn’t all grown yet. Driving the ball in the rough isn’t going to be, I don’t think, a big deal this week, just because it’s not very long. You can get some pretty nice lies in the rough. So that’s just a South Texas thing right now this time of year. The transition and everything is coming back.
They keep making minor improvements to the golf course. It’s really resonating with the guys. A lot of guys like to show up and play a tough golf course. It’s kind of the deal if you get bad weather you feel like half the field is out. They’re in a bad mood. There’s guys that enjoy coming and playing tough tracks where you don’t have to shoot 18, 25-under. We shot 9-under last year and won, something like that. It’s a tough track. The opening stretch here is pretty good. 1 through 4 you got to kind of have all your stuff together. You do have a par 5 in there but it’s really not too reachable by 90-some-odd percent of the field. It’s a good par 5. And then 3 is a tough par 3 and 4 is a great, tough, 485-yard hole with a tiny green. You got to be precise. It’s got some tough tee shots, got some tough second shots and the greens can be a little tricky to read. They’ve got some South Texas grain in them. It can play with you a little bit.”
Jordan Spieth: “Well, for one, the trouble isn’t the hazard. You’re going in to try to find your ball or you’re walking up thinking you’re going to find it in a good spot. And then when it’s not in a good spot, well, now I don’t want to find it. You want to play it as a lost ball. You get guys that are coming up and walking all the way back. That takes a lot of time. If it’s a hazard and you didn’t find it, you know it went in, take a drop there, that saves five to ten minutes on that hole. So because it’s so challenging on both sides of the fairway, you get any shots astray, which will happen tomorrow in the wind, it’s going to slow down the round significantly, especially if you’re trying to grind. Any tough course is going to play slow towards the lead groups because for whatever reason you’re normally grinding it out a little bit more. I don’t think it should change, no matter what position you’re in, but I do it for whatever reason, and it just happens. So, yeah, I just think because of the trouble off the tee that this course maybe could yield slower play than other places.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Valero Texas Open since 2018:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the last 12 Valero Texas Open winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Brian Gay, Si Woo Kim.
3 – Chris Kirk, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Palmer.
2 – Luke Donald, Jason Dufner, Davis Love III, Scott Piercy, Robert Streb, Jimmy Walker.
1 – Ryan Armour, Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan, Lanto Griffin, James Hahn, Padraig Harrington, Tyrrell Hatton, Jim Herman, Garrick Higgo, J.B. Holmes, Patton Kizzire, Martin Laird, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Hideki Matsuyama, Francesco Molinari, J.J. Spaun, Sepp Straka, Kevin Streelman, Brian Stuard, Nick Taylor, Michael Thompson, Nick Watney.
We face an interesting conundrum this week with regards the difficult Oaks Course itself in an event that can be very fanciful from a betting perspective. Let’s firstly start with my views on the course. It was once a real beast of a track with tough scoring conditions, but recent renewals have been won at -13/275, -18/270, -20/268 and -17/271. The Texas wind and its direction can really dictate scoring, and it’s abundantly clear that when holes 1, 4 and 10 were made less challenging with green re-sculpting and fairway widening work prior to 2013’s renewal, difficulty was significantly eased. Even so greens are contoured so putting is difficult and the fairways are some of the most testing the Tour pros will face this season – long and tight and surrounded by masses of trouble. Greens are hard to hit in volume and the putting surfaces themselves repel approach shots from pin positions very ably.
Pre-Major tournaments always have a slightly strange feel to them, but the week prior to The Masters in recent times has been pretty difficult to read. 2020 saw the Houston Open precede The Masters, both played in November, and despite OWGR No 1 Dustin Johnson being right in the mix for victory, non Augusta National qualifier Carlos Ortiz snared his maiden PGA Tour title.
Critiquing the April Masters “curtain raisers”, we know that the vast majority of the respective fields are ignoring Augusta on the basis that they are not qualified. Defending champion J.J. Spaun (2022) and Corey Conners (2019) here at TPC San Antonio fall into this category, plus Ian Poulter (2018), Russell Henley (2017) and Jim Herman (2016) across the previous 3 years played at the GC of Houston. And 2014 also saw Matt Jones win in this pre-Masters week with no Augusta qualification weighing on his mind. Extrapolate that to TPC San Antonio in 2013, where Martin Laird again grabbed a last minute invite to the first Major of the year, and there’s a line of enquiry that suggests we look for non-Augusta qualifiers. After all, 8 of the past 10 winners of the Masters warm-up event weren’t already in the field for the following week’s main event.
But we have 2 exceptions. The first was J.B. Holmes in 2015 who was ranked 20th in the OWGR and came into Houston off of 2 runner-up finishes in his previous 2015 outings. Whether he thought he had a serious chance of putting on a Green Jacket at Augusta is open to debate, and instead he took the opportunity of lifting his 4th PGA Tour title when he was undoubtedly playing some of the very best golf of his career.
The second exception is Jordan Spieth, who we were on-board in 2021 at 16/1. Winless in over 3 and a half years, Spieth – who ranked at 53rd in the OWGR – has always been one that likes to hit Majors with a top performance the outing before. 4th at TPC Scottsdale, 3rd at Pebble Beach and 4th at Bay Hill in the build-up, Spieth with a more compliant driver was undoubtedly trending and he took advantage of a weak field to take his 12th PGA Tour title and 2nd win in his home state of Texas.
At the top of the market, one player who I think will have more focus on this week’s Valero Texas Open over next week’s Masters is Chris Kirk.
Kirk, who after a stellar 2023 is up to 34th in the World, has finished 3rd at Waialae, 3rd at PGA West and 1st at PGA National. That of course was his first win on the PGA Tour for over 7 years. The relief and joy of that win must have been immense and since then he’s delivered 39th at Bay Hill before a missed cut at The Players and a group exit at the WGC Dell Match Play. Put up by some sage tipsters as an outsider at the Match Play, Kirk tied with Matt Kuchar and lost to Si Woo Kim and Viktor Hovland in a tough Group 8. Approach play was still good though as Chris ranked 13th for Strokes Gained on Approach – he simply struggled around and on the greens.
Back to run of the mill, non-designated PGA Tour action this week and I fancy Chris to go very well. 8th (2015), 13th (2016), 8th (2018) and 6th (2021) here on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio. Kirk is also a winner at Colonial (2015), where he also has a further T5 (2012) and 5 additional top 20 (2011, 2014, 2016, 2018 + 2022) finishes. Throw-in a 2nd at the 2011 Houston Open played on the old Redstone course and you can see that Kirk loves playing on the Bermudagrass courses of the Lone Star state and also has no problem when it comes to playing in the wind. And with gusty conditions forecast, Chris in this week’s field in our Valero Predictor Model ranks T5 for wind play across the past 5 years on the PGA Tour. RESULT: T10
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J.J. Spaun 1.5pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
J.J. Spaun impressed at the WGC Dell Match Play last week and has to be respected as he attempts to defend his Valero Texas Open title.
Wins over Matt Fitzpatrick (5&3), Sahith Theegala (5&4) and Min Woo Lee (2&1) were unexpected and pretty emphatic, as the World Number 69 made it to the Round of 16. A loss to Xander Schauffele was more than expected, but Spaun’s strong play in Group 11 can be seen via Strokes Gained numbers where across the 64 player field he ranked 6th for Approach, 14th for Around the Green, 5th for Tee to Green and 4th for Strokes Gained Total – only Cameron Young (Runner-Up), Lucas Herbert (lost to McIlroy in the last 16) and Kurt Kitayama (Quarter Finalist) ranked higher.
The curse of the defending champion doesn’t seem anywhere near as valid as it once used to be on the PGA Tour with the likes of Hovland, Burns, K.H. Lee and Scheffler all defending their maiden titles in recent history. So in a weak field I see no reason why a confidence-boosted J.J. cannot give it a real go this week and go for that final Masters qualification spot. RESULT: T22
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Ryan Fox seems well priced at the Valero Texas Open, and despite having a Masters invite in his back pocket he’ll want to have a good week on his TPC San Antonio debut.
Current form of 20-11-17-14-27-17 is strong enough, especially as 14th was at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 27th was at The Players Championship. Big tournaments where the New Zealand World Number 36 has held his own. An established 3-time winner on the DP World Tour, Ryan’s next logical career step is to grab Special Temporary Membership of the PGA Tour, and with that in mind a 21st place this week at the Valero would suffice to deliver that.
But Fox is capable of far more than that this week in my opinion. After all, across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers he ranks in the top 20 for Off the Tee and Putting, as well as in the top 5 for Approach, Tee to Green and Strokes Gained Current Form.
We saw Nicolai Hojgaard go close to winning last week at the Corales Championship as a non-PGA Tour member, and naturally Garrick Higgo won the 2021 Palmetto Championship at 50/1 the week before the U.S. Open, so it’s more than possible for the very best on the DP World Tour to mix it in weaker PGA Tour company. RESULT: MC
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Aaron Rai 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Aaron Rai on a tough track makes lots of sense this week and the Wolverhampton man is playing some excellent stuff at the moment.
Now into his second full season on the PGA Tour after making the FedEx Cup Playoffs in his rookie season, the 28 year-old looks like he’s becoming far more comfortable on Tour. 8 events in 2023 have brought 6 pay cheques with cuts made across Waialae, Torrey Pines, TPC Scottsdale, Riviera, Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass. And that all makes a level of sense – tougher tracks with higher scoring. That can be seen from Rai’s only DP World Tour victory which came at a windswept 2020 Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club. That week he shot -11/273 for victory beating Tommy Fleetwood in a play-off.
At 88th in the FedEx Cup, Rai still has plenty of work on to keep his full playing privileges for next season, and I think he will thrive on the challenge that is the Oaks Course this week. 29th here on debut last year, a Thursday 67 and Saturday 68 had the World Number 124 in 7th place heading into Sunday. 19th (2021) and 7th (2022) at the tough Memorial Park which hosts the Houston Open also highlights a player who goes well in Texas conditions.
An opening round 68 at Bay Hill and mid-rounds of 69-65 at TPC Sawgrass suggests a player whose confidence is on the up. Indeed only Tom Hoge and Sungjae Im scored lower across Friday/Saturday at The Players. Rai also ranks within the top 20 for Off the Tee, top 15 for Approach and top 5 for Tee to Green across my 8-week Strokes Gained tracker. RESULT: T28
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Nick Taylor is also a player who’s undoubtedly jumped a level or two during 2023.
Up from 257th to 67th in the OWGR, I doubt Nick at the start of 2023 would have expected to be playing in the WGC Dell Match Play last week, with the world’s very best golfers. So I love his chances in a weak event here in San Antonio, especially on the basis that he knows how to get the job done – remember he has won the Sanderson Farms Championship (2014) and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (2020) during an unbroken 8 year tenure on the PGA Tour.
6th at the Fortinet, 19th at the Sanderson Farms, 7th at the Sony, 20th at Pebble Beach, 2nd at Phoenix and 10th at the Valspar, Nick has landed 4 top-10 with 2 additional top-20 finishes this season, yet we find him below the likes of Will Gordon and Byeong Hun An in the betting markets this week. 21st (6th heading into Sunday) in 2016 on Oaks course debut, plus 22nd (12th heading into Sunday) in 2017 here at the Texas Open, Taylor arrives off the back of a 3&2 win over K.H. Lee on the closing Friday of the Dell Match Play which featured a 6 birdie barrage across the closing 11 holes of their match. Nick also ranked 9th for Strokes Gained on Approach and 8th for Tee to Green at Copperhead when finishing 10th at the Valspar Championship 2 weeks ago. RESULT: T15
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Erik van Rooyen 1pt EW 125/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Erik van Rooyen has always been unpredictable. Brilliant at his very best, there have been signs of life in 2023 of better things ahead. Don’t forget the South African has finished in the top 10 in a Major (2019 PGA Championship), finished 3rd in a WGC (2020 Mexico Championship) and qualified for the 2021 Tour Championship in the season where he won his maiden PGA Tour title – the Barracuda Championship. At his best he’s undoubtedly elite, it’s just a case of predicting when that is!
At this price though we can take a risk and go with the 33 year-old who has been improving since he returned from a neck injury in the autumn. 6th at The American Express (January) and 10th at the Valspar Championship (2 weeks ago), van Rooyen was a popular selection last week and although he disappointed, 56th was his 3rd pay cheque on the bounce – something he hadn’t achieved for 12 months.
1st for Greens in Regulation, 4th for Total Accuracy and 5th for Ball Striking at Copperhead a fortnight ago, from a Strokes Gained perspective that translated to 2nd for Approach and 6th for Tee to Green. 14th here on his only start in the 2021 Texas Open, EVR was 4th after 36 holes and 10th after 54 holes, ranking 1st for Off the Tee and 10th for Tee to Green. RESULT: MC
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2023 Majors Competition, Sponsored By bet365
