Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Volvo China Open Tips 2026

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After a break following what was another enthralling Masters the week before last, the DP World Tour concludes its Asian Swing with a pair of events, starting with the Volvo China Open this week followed by the Turkish Airlines Open next week.

Historically one of the more established events on the schedule, the pandemic meant that the Volvo China Open was restricted to the Asian and China Tours until it regained co-sanctioned status in 2024 when Adrian Otaegui proved victorious at Hidden Grace Golf Club.

A change in venue to Enhance Anting Golf Club in Shanghai last year saw Ashun Wu win his fifth DP World Tour title, and we return to the same venue again this week in a betting heat that’s heavily skewed towards the visiting DP World Tour players.

With the likes of Patrick Reed and Jayden Schaper not in attendance this week, we’re left with Daniel Hillier and Angel Ayora sharing favouritism at around the 10/1 mark. Oliver Lindell and Eugenio Chacarra, who flies back from a Korn Ferry Tour event in Mexico to play this week, follow in the betting in a market that soon thins out in terms of quality.

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Course Overview. From its tips, this Robert Trent Jones Junior layout can stretch to around 7,300 yards for its par of 71, however it’s listed as 7,188 yards for this event with 3 Par-5s and 4 Par-3s alongside 11 Par-4s.

Trent Jones Junior courses are far more prevalent on the PGA Tour than this side of the Atlantic, however with water in play on a number of holes there’s a hint of Bro Hof Slott about some of the holes here, with that course being another RTJ2 design used at this level for the Nordea Masters between 2010 and 2013. This is much shorter though and certainly more parkland in style, so comparisons are tentative at best.

Measuring 577, 568 and 614 yards for the 3rd, 10th and 18th respectively, the Par-5s will all require a long, accurate drive to allow players to even think about having a crack at the greens. Five sub-400 yard Par-4s will possibly be more pivotal to the outcome of the tournament though, with risk-reward being the order of the day with the penalty for stray drives and approaches often a watery grave.

volvo china open tips

Course Winners: Ashun Wu, 2025: -14, 175/1.

Tournament Stats. Event data comes from the China Open events held at various venues over the years. As noted above, this year’s venue made its debut last year so previous results should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Event Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the Shanghai area is here.

Wet weather on Wednesday will linger into Thursday’s play, however from there conditions improve and temperatures recover to the mid-70s Fahrenheit by Sunday. Wind will be fairly light at 5-10mph throughout.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Stats from the top 3 last year give us some insight into the type of player that may be suited to this test:

  • 1st: Ashun Wu (-14). 288 yards (43rd), 83.9% fairways (16th), 79.2% greens in regulation (5th), 86.7% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (23rd)
  • 2nd: Jordan Smith (-13). 299 yards (10th), 83.9% fairways (16th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 53.8% scrambling (20th), 1.75 putts per GIR (38th)
  • 3rd: Yannik Paul (-12). 286 yards (48th), 89.3% fairways (2nd), 72.2% greens in regulation (19th), 70% scrambling (4th), 1.65 putts per GIR (7th)

Driving Accuracy stats were strong for pretty much all of the field, with even the more flagrant players hitting close to 70% of fairways, making this very much a second-shot golf course. Maximising GIR and scrambling well when that wasn’t possible was the order of the day 12 months ago, with eventual winner Ashun Wu dropping shots on just 4 holes over the course of the week.

The Par 3s are tough here – the field shot a combined 470 over par for the short holes on the week – and the Par 5s aren’t gimmies by any stretch either, so maximising performance on the Par 4s is critical. The scoring breakdown of the leaders was as follows:

  • 1st: Ashun Wu: Par 3: Even; Par 4: -10; Par 5: -4
  • 2nd: Jordan Smith: Par 3: +1; Par 4: -5; Par 5: -9
  • 3rd: Yannik Paul: Par 3: +2; Par 4: -13; Par 5: -1

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, stats for the same top 3 finishers here last year were as follows:

  • 1st: Ashun Wu: T: 9th; A: 29th; T2G: 5th; ATG: 1st; P: 28th
  • 2nd: Jordan Smith: T: 17th; A: 16th; T2G: 9th; ATG: 23rd; P: 8th
  • 3rd: Yannik Paul: T: 25th; A: 9th; T2G: 15th; ATG: 36th; P: 9th

Eventual winner Wu was Strokes Gained positive in every category as he plotted his way round this course 12 months, as were Smith and Paul, suggesting that a good all-round game is preferable to excelling in any specific category.

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Immediate form varies between the Volvo China Open winners since 2010, however each of them had recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous 10 outings, with the exception of last year’s winner Ashun Wu. Wu though had shown some improvement on his previous outing, opening with rounds of 66/67 in Macau before finishing in a tie for 26th.

  • 2025: Ashun Wu: 47/68/MC/64/49/20/68/34/46/MC/MC/26
  • 2024: Adrian Otaegui: 18/MC/20/56/MC/MC/65/4/24/MC/26/30
  • 2023: Sarit Suwannarut: 45/27/35/MC/MC/9/37/23/76/MC/WD/MC
  • 2021: Jin Zhang: 10/42/51/13/29/57/43/12/57/45/6/MC
  • 2020: Huilin Zhang: 2/18/WD/56/MC/4/1/MC/60/4/60/6
  • 2019: Mikko Korhonen: 3/35/16/57/MC/38/44/31/18/MC/10/30
  • 2018: Alexander Bjork: 52/17/2/MC/MC/6/MC/12/19/MC/39/3
  • 2017: Alex Levy: 63/4/58/25/64/27/MC/57/49/4/34/8
  • 2016: Haotong Li: MC/26/7/41/53/MC/MC/60/35/MC/57/MC
  • 2015: Ashun Wu: 47/MC/MC/11/28/64/14/6/50/14/22/MC
  • 2014: Alex Levy: MC/46/52/47/3/56/MC/67/42/MC/37/20
  • 2013: Brett Rumford: 22/36/3/40/10/MC/MC/22/MC/12/71/MC/1
  • 2012: Branden Grace: 9/14/1/1/MC/47/51/28/35/25/MC/40
  • 2011: Nicolas Colsaerts: MC/MC/MC/8/MC/11/MC/28/5/57/MC/17
  • 2010: YE Yang: 33/29/9/19/46/15/17/3/MC/30/31/8

Event Form. History in this event, regardless of the Tour on which it was being contested, is extremely varied with the positive event history of the likes of Alex Levy, Adrian Otaegui and Ashun Wu offset by many of the other winners:

  • 2025: Ashun Wu: MC/57/MC/MC/MC/MC/50/1/60/24/7/5/35
  • 2024: Adrian Otaegui: 19/MC/MC/2
  • 2023: Sarit Suwannarut: Debut
  • 2021: Jin Zhang: MC/MC/64/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2020: Huilin Zhang: MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2019: Mikko Korhonen: 47/MC/MC
  • 2018: Alexander Bjork: MC
  • 2017: Alex Levy: 1/3/28
  • 2016: Haotong Li: MC/MC/MC/50/6
  • 2015: Ashun Wu: MC/57/MC/MC/MC/MC/50
  • 2014: Alex Levy: Debut
  • 2013: Brett Rumford: 45/14/11/33/MC/22/29
  • 2012: Branden Grace: 16
  • 2011: Nicolas Colsaerts: 32/MC/8
  • 2010: YE Yang: 43

Last year’s win for Ashun Wu could lead us down a certain path, and I do agree with the idea that this is a second shot golf course where maximising greens hit is of paramount importance, however pre-event rain may change the dynamic a little this year with more aggressive types able to take advantage of the short Par-4s and the three Par-5s.

My final Volvo China Open tips are as follows:

Daniel Hillier 4pts Win Only 12/1 with BetMGM

Let’s face facts, the bookie have got this week’s market just about right and they make Daniel Hillier – as do I – one of the favourites to win this week’s Volvo China Open.

After winning the New Zealand Open on his last start, I did fear that we might be looking at single-figure odds about the Kiwi this week. That victory on home soil has to be taken in context given its Australasian Tour status, however you can only beat what’s in front of you and in that respect he finished two shots ahead of Lucas Herbert who’s a former PGA Tour winner playing on LIV nowadays, and five shots clear of third place.

Anyone who’s been observing the 27 year-old will know that a win of some description has been coming, and after celebrating at home and then the DP World Tour’s break for The Masters, Hillier arrives here in China this week rested and hopefully ready to go.

Three top-6 finishes from his final four starts of last year paved the way for his 2026 campaign which started with a fast-finishing 2nd at the Dubai Invitational. 26th at the Dubai Desert Classic at a far higher level than this, 4th in Bahrain and 20th in Qatar followed before he jetted off to win his home Open.

Statistically he ticks all the important boxes for me this week, and then some. 2nd on Tour for GIR behind MinWoo Lee who’s played far fewer qualifying rounds, Daniel is 4th for SG Approach, 9th for SG Tee to Green, 1st for par 4 Scoring, and 1st for Bogey Avoidance. Understandably he tops this week’s predictor model by some distance.

From three starts in China, he’s finished 23rd on China Open debut in 2024, 36th here last year when he sat 8th heading into the weekend, and 9th at last year’s Hainan Classic where he was 3rd after 54 holes. He arrives here this year in far better form than 12 months ago and must be fancied to go very, very close this time around.

Hillier’s only DP World Tour win came at The Belfry back in 2023 which given its tough Par-4s is no bad comparison for this week test, and the promise of pre-event rain only improves his chances in my view given he averages over 310 yards with the driver and ranks 8th for SG Off the Tee this season.

At a similar price, Angel Ayora – as talented as he undoubtedly is – holds nowhere near the same appeal given he’s a Tour maiden still and has drifted away from some strong positions of late when the pressure’s ratcheted up. For me, Daniel Hillier is this week’s most likely winner.

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Ewen Ferguson 2pts EW 22/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

I backed Ewen Ferguson here last year having shown some progressive form in the build-up, and although a tie for 32nd was neither here nor there in the end, a better final day could have seen the Scot in and around the top 10 which would have seriously reduced his price for this 12 months on.

As it is, the 29 year-old is in better form this year than last, with notable efforts of 33rd at the Dubai Desert Classic, 24th in Qatar, 9th at the South African Open, and 6th at the Indian Open the highlights. There have been some less impressive finishes intertwined in those results I grant you, however after a 3-week break around The Masters the Glaswegian should be ready to go here this week.

In truth, Ferguson’s GIR performance wasn’t quite good enough 12 months ago, hitting 72% of greens – ranking 19th of those who made the weekend – and failing to make up for it with the putter. A year on though and we’re seeing the kind of numbers from his recent outings to suggest he could fare much better this time around. 2nd at the SA Open for GIR, he then topped that stat at both the Joburg Open and Indian Open and it will only take a spark with the putter for him to seriously feature this week on that evidence.

Ewen’s wider form in China is solid with finishes of 15/10/34/17 from his exploits on the Challenge Tour back in 2018 and 2019, included in which was the Foshan Open where he led to half way. Having reacquainted himself with the area last year, I can see him pushing on to a lofty finish this time around.

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Alex Levy 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

I’m not sure if I could forgive myself if Alex Levy were to win a third China Open title and I wasn’t on board, so I’ll back him accordingly.

The Frenchman’s maiden title came in this event in 2014 at Hidden Grace Golf Club, and he followed that up three years later with another victory, this time at Topwin. Wider form in China is also impressive with 2nd at the 2014 BMW Masters, 3rd at the 2015 China Open, plus 4th and 8th at the Shenzhen International in 2016 and 2017. 36th here last year on course debut should also be taken in context as the 35 year-old hadn’t finished inside the top-50 from 7 starts that season, plus his Saturday round of 66 was amongst the best scores on the day.

Injury and a subsequent loss of form has prevented Alex from adding to his five titles at DP World Tour level with no win now since 2018, however biorhythm fans will love the fact that three of those five victories came in late April, including his most recent success at the Trophee Hassan II.

Having finished 140th on the Race to Dubai last year, Levy plays here this year on past champion status but would love nothing more than regaining full playing rights with victory here. 9th at the Spanish Open in October, 7th in Mauritius in December, and 29th in Kenya on his last Tour start suggests that he’s still competitive, and a soft course to start this year’s event will be right up his alley.

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Marcel Siem 1pt EW 150/1 (6EW, 1/5) with BOYLE Sports

Finally, if last year’s event is anything to go by, scoring isn’t likely to get out of control here and one player with the guile to manage his way to a competitive total in a mid-score test is Marcel Siem.

In a career that’s spanned three decades, the German’s victories have come at different stages with a 2004 maiden victory at the Alfred Dunhill Championship being followed by three further wins between 2012-2014, plus another two in 2023 and 2024 as the 45 year-old enjoyed something of a revival. Those two most recent wins at the Indian Open and Italian Open have come at 14- and 10-under par respectively, and that could be a great barometer for success here in Shanghai.

Finishes of 9th at the Joburg Open and 5th at the Austrian Open were amongst his most eye-catching outings last year, however it was 8th at The Belfry that was the most relevant to this week on another challenging setup where Par-4 scoring is critical. Opening rounds of 66/69 put Marcel at the top of the leaderboard heading into the weekend before a Saturday 75 derailed him, however to his credit he shot 69 on Sunday to rescue something out of the week.

This year hasn’t really got going yet with 13th at the Dubai Invitational his best finish, 18th last time out at the Joburg Open was more positive though and Siem has a positive record in China, winning the 2014 BMW Masters at Lake Malaren as well as finishing 3rd in this event two years later at Topwin.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:55BST 20.4.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.