Course Guide: Previous host course El Camaleon was a short, flat, coastal affair on the Caribbean Sea where accuracy counted. This week the WWT Championship moves to Baja California, which is effectively the Mexican controlled ‘Lower California’, and the fashionable resort of Cabo San Lucas. El Cardonal Golf Course is an altogether different course set in desert conditions, overlooking the Pacific Ocean.
El Cardonal at Diamante, Los Cabos, Mexico: Designer: Tiger Woods 2014; Course Type: Desert, Coastal, Resort, Long; Par: 72; Length: 7,452 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 1; Acres of Fairway: 97; Fairways: Platinum Paspalum; Rough: None; Greens: 8,300 sq.ft average featuring Platinum Paspalum; Tournament Stimp: 11ft.
Course Overview: First thing to point out is that this is the first time that a PGA Tour event will be held on a Tiger Woods design. Irrelevant I know, but I thought I’d get it in there. El Cardonal opened in 2014. This course is part of the successful Diamante Resort and that’s worthy of note – whatever you read, it’s effectively designed for the amateur golfer market.
The raw course numbers are also interesting. On the scorecard it’s a 7,452 yard, par 72. It’s the typical par 72 format so features 4 par-3s and 4 par-5s. The course is also within a stone’s throw of the Pacific coastline, so as it’s pretty much at sea-level will play all of that yardage.
The intrigue continues further as despite having panoramic views of the sea, the course is set in desert terrain featuring cacti, palo verde trees, scrubby desert flora and encroaching desert arroyos. Those arroyos also effectively form the off fairway hazards as this course features short fairway all the way. There’s no rough and errant tee shots in many cases will find a sandy or rocky location. Fairways described as 60 yards wide in landing areas though are generous in the extreme, with only the Plantation Course at Kapalua featuring such wide landing areas. In reality though, there are few forced carries with arroyos flanking holes rather than cutting across them in the main.
That link to Kapalua also holds further water as this El Cardonal layout is set on land which drops 240 feet along the mile-long stretch from the 17th tee to the 3rd fairway. There are undulations aplenty and this terrain will prove demanding for both players and caddies. Flat holes are few and far between with ascending (par-5 14th climbs the most at 80 feet) and descending (par-5 6th falls the most at 70 feet) holes the norm.
Greens are huge which at 8,300 sq.ft. are some of the largest on the PGA Tour and tend to be canted diagonally. They look pretty flat. The course is also bedecked in Platinum Paspalum from tee to fairway to green. A fascinating aspect for me will be how firm the course will play because this Baja area only receives 6 inches of rain per year.
WWT Championship Winners: 2022: Russell Henley (-23); 2021: Viktor Hovland (-23); 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20); 2019: Brendon Todd (-20); 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22); 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19); 2016: Pat Perez (-21); 2015: Graeme McDowell (-18); 2014: Charley Hoffman (-17); 2013: Harris English (-21); 2012: John Huh (-13); 2011: Johnson Wagner (-17); 2010: Cameron Beckman (-15).
- 2022: Russell Henley 63-63-65-70 -23/261
- 2021: Viktor Hovland 67-65-62-67 -23/261
- 2020: Viktor Hovland 67-69-63-65 -20/264
- 2019: Brendon Todd 63-68-65-68 -20/264
- 2018: Matt Kuchar 64-64-65-69 -22/262
Path to Victory: Below are the end-of-round positions for the winners of the WWT Championship since 2018:
- 2021 – Russell Henley: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2021 – Viktor Hovland: Round 1: 20th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
- 2020 – Viktor Hovland: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 3rd.
- 2019 – Brendon Todd: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
- 2018 – Matt Kuchar: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the WWT Championship winners since 2018 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
- 2022 – Russell Henley: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 3 ahead, Round 3: 6 ahead.
- 2021 – Viktor Hovland: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
- 2020 – Viktor Hovland: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 2 back.
- 2019 – Brendon Todd: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
- 2018 – Matt Kuchar: Round 1: level, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 4 ahead.
OWGR of WWT Championship Winners: 2022: Henley 59; 2021: Hovland 17; 2020: Hovland 26; 2019: Todd 185; 2018: Kuchar 40.
Cut Line: 2022: -4; 2021: -4; 2020: -1; 2019: -1; 2018: -4.
Lead Score Progression:
- 2022: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -16; Round 3 -22; Round 4 -23.
- 2021: Round 1 -10; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -19; Round 4 -23.
- 2020: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -20.
- 2019: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -17; Round 4 -20.
- 2018: Round 1 -7; Round 2: -14; Round 3 -20; Round 4: -22.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Luke List, Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, Cameron Champ, Kevin Yu, Keith Mitchell, Akshay Bhatia, Emiliano Grillo, Adam Long and Sam Ryder.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time using the variables listed on the left hand side.
WWT Championship Winning Prices: 2022: Henley 55/1; 2021: Hovland 18/1; 2020: Hovland 22/1; 2019: Todd 110/1; 2018: Kuchar 60/1; 2017: Kizzire 70/1; 2016: Perez 125/1; 2015: McDowell 33/1; 2014: Hoffman 60/1; 2013: English 25/1. Past 5 Renewals: 53/1; Overall Average: 58/1.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Los Cabos, Mexico is here. There has been plenty of precipitation in the build-up to the tournament with 84mm across the past week. Baja in general – it’s a desert climate – has little rain, and expect the course to have dried up significantly, especially with the Paspalum playing surface. So I would not expect the course to be firm in anyway. Temperatures will be between 27-28 degrees Celsius, – 83-85 Fahrenheit – which will be perfect. Wind looks light all week, so expect nice, low scoring.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Omega European Masters which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Adam Svensson; 2) M.J. Daffue; 3) Luke List; 4) Stephan Jaeger; 5) Ludvig Aberg; 6) Thomas Detry; 7) Mark Hubbard / Troy Merritt; 9) Brent Grant; 10) Davis Thompson; 11) Justin Suh; 12) Cameron Champ; 13) Tyler Duncan; 14) Akshay Bhatia / Trevor Cone / Carson Young; 17) Doug Ghim / Taylor Pendrith / Chad Ramey; 20) Erik van Rooyen; 21) Matti Schmid; 22) Davis Riley / Callum Tarren; 24) Ryan Moore; 25) Peter Kuest / Isaiah Salinda.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Camilo Villegas; 2) Michael Kim; 3) Erik van Rooyen; 4) Chesson Hadley; 5) J.J. Spaun; 6) Russell Knox; 7) Ludvig Aberg; 8) Kelly Kraft / Sahith Theegala; 10) Callum Tarren; 11) Taylor Pendrith; 12) Andrew Putnam; 13) Justin Lower; 14) Davis Thompson; 15) Mark Hubbard / Ryan Moore / Isaiah Salinda; 18) Sam Ryder; 19) Matti Schmid; 20) Stephan Jaeger; 21) Ben Griffin; 22) Matt Kuchar / Justin Suh; 24) Marty Dou / Kevin Roy.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Sahith Theegala; 2) Isaiah Salinda; 3) Luke List; 4) Stewart Cink / J.J. Spaun; 6) Harrison Endycott / Beau Hossler/ Troy Merritt; 9) Ludvig Aberg; 10) Taylor Montgomery; 11) Brice Garnett / Sam Ryder; 13) Matt Kuchar; 14) Augusto Nunez / C.T. Pan; 16) Matthias Schwab; 17) Tyler Duncan; 18) Adam Long; 19) Michael Kim; 20) Brandon Wu; 21) K.H. Lee / Kyle Westmoreland; 23) Akshay Bhatia / Henrik Norlander; 25) Stephan Jaeger / Greyson Sigg / Adam Svensson.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Sahith Theegala; 2) Ludvig Aberg; 3) J.J. Spaun; 4) Isaiah Salinda; 5) Stephan Jaeger; 6) Luke List; 7) Mark Hubbard / Callum Tarren; 9) Davis Thompson; 10) Taylor Pendrith / Erik van Rooyen; 12) Tyler Duncan / Kelly Kraft / Adam Svensson; 15) Cameron Champ; 16) Akshay Bhatia / Harrison Endycott; 18) Matt Kuchar; 19) Beau Hossler / Sam Ryder; 21) Thomas Detry / Vince Whaley; 23) Doug Ghim / Michael Kim / Troy Merritt / Ryan Moore.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Sahith Theegala; 2) Michael Kim; 3) Lanto Griffin; 4) Harry Hall; 5) Ben Martin; 6) Lucas Herbert; 7) C.T. Pan; 8) Scott Harrington / Isaiah Salinda; 10) Matt Kuchar; 11) Henrik Norlander / Adam Svensson; 13) Vince Whaley / Brandt Snedeker; 15) Chesson Hadley; 16) Austin Cook; 17) Beau Hossler / Richy Werenski; 19) Thomas Detry; 20) Will Gordon; 21) Ben Griffin; 22) Jimmy Walker; 23) Ryan Brehm / Peter Malnati; 25) Ryan Palmer / Ben Taylor.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Ryo Ishikawa; 2) Ludvig Aberg / Isaiah Salinda; 4) Sahith Theegala; 5) Matt Kuchar; 6) Luke List; 7) Beau Hossler; 8) Erik van Rooyen; 9) Kelly Kraft / J.J. Spaun; 11) Vince Whaley; 12) Adam Svensson; 13) Callum Tarren; 14) Mark Hubbard / Chad Ramey / Davis Thompson; 17) Michael Kim; 18) Lanto Griffin; 19) Justin Suh; 20) Stephan Jaeger; 21) Thomas Detry; 22) Ryan Moore; 23) Akshay Bhatia / Chesson Hadley; 25) Sam Ryder.
Incoming Form of WWT Championship winners since 2013:
- Russell Henley: 45th CJ Cup/MC Sanderson/35th BMW/ MC St Jude.
- Viktor Hovland: 18th CJ Cup/44th Shriners/49th BMW PGA/5th Tour.
- Viktor Hovland: 15th Houston/47th ZOZO/12th CJ Cup/13th US Open.
- Brendon Todd: 1st Bermuda/28th Houston/MC Shiners/MC Safeway.
- Matt Kuchar: 57th Shriners/28th Dunhill Links/43rd Dell Tech/60th Northern Trust.
- Patton Kizzire: 4th Shriners/10th Sanderson/MC Safeway /MC Dell Tech.
- Pat Perez: 7th Shriners/33rd CIMB.
- Graeme McDowell: 37th Turkey/24th Hong Kong/30th British Masters/19th Dunhill Links.
- Charley Hoffman: 35th Sanderson/MC McGladrey/MC Shriners/53rd BMW.
- Harris English: 27th McGladrey/7th CIMB/40th Shriners/50th BMW.
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2019. For full first round leader stats click here.
- 2022 – Gordon – AM Wave -9/62 100/1
- 2021 – Wolff – AM Wave -10/61 50/1
- 2020 – Knox – PM Wave -6/65 70/1
- 2019 – D Lee – AM Wave -9/62 – 55/1
- 2018 – Bozzelli, Hickok, Kuchar – 2 AM / 1 PM wave split -7 64 – 250/1, 125/1, 55/1
- 2017 – Kizzire – AM Wave -9/62 – 66/1
- 2016 – Kirk – PM Wave -8/63 – 45/1
- 2015 – Baddeley, Fathauer, Leonard, Stefani – All AM wave -6/65.
- 2014 – Berger, Finau, Garrigus, MacKenzie, Swafford, Wheatcroft – All AM Wave -6/65.
- 2013 – Karlsson – PM Wave -8/63.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Paspalum PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 2 – Ryan Moore.
- 1 – Ryan Brehm, Nico Echavarria, Brice Garnett, Brian Gay, Chesson Hadley, Charley Hoffman, Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar, Chad Ramey.
With so many unknowns it will be a limited line-up for me this week. There’s plenty of guesswork around this new El Cardonal at Diamante layout, which replaces El Camaleon, and it has to be said that the quality of field this week – like most Fall Series events in 2023 – is a step or two down on what we have seen over recent years.
