The PGA Tour Fall Series is back this week and we move to
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Course Guide: Previous host course El Camaleon was a short, flat, coastal affair on the Caribbean Sea where accuracy counted. 2023 saw the WWT Championship move to Baja California, which is effectively the Mexican controlled “Lower California”, and the fashionable resort of Cabo San Lucas. El Cardonal Golf Course is an altogether different course set in desert conditions with wide fairways, much longer in length, and overlooking the Pacific Ocean.
El Cardonal at Diamante, Los Cabos, Mexico: Designer: Tiger Woods 2014; Course Type: Desert, Resort, Medium; Par: 72; Length: 7,452 yards; number of Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 1; Number of Sand Bunkers: 48; Acres of Fairway: 97; Fairways: Platinum Paspalum; Rough: None; Greens: 8,300 sq.ft average featuring Platinum Paspalum; Tournament Stimp: 11ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for El Cardonal and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Course Overview: El Cardonal opened in 2014. This course is part of the successful Diamante Resort, and that’s worthy of note – whatever you read it’s effectively designed for the amateur golfer market. -27/261 and -24/264 have won this across the opening 2 renewals.
The raw course numbers are also interesting. On the scorecard it’s a 7,452 yard, par 72. It’s the typical par 72 format so features 4 par-3s and 4 par-5s. The course is also within a stone’s throw of the Pacific coastline, so as it’s pretty much at sea-level it plays all of that yardage.
The intrigue continues further as despite having panoramic views of the sea, the course is set in desert terrain featuring cacti, palo verde trees, scrubby desert flora and encroaching desert arroyos. Those arroyos also effectively form the off fairway hazards as this course features short fairway all the way. There’s no rough and errant tee shots in many cases will find a sandy or rocky location. Fairways are 60 to 70 yards wide in landing areas making them generous in the extreme, with only the Plantation Course at Kapalua and Black Desert Resort in Utah featuring such wide landing areas. In reality though, there are few forced carries with arroyos flanking holes rather than cutting across them in the main.
That link to Kapalua also holds further water as this El Cardonal layout is set on land which drops 240 feet along the mile-long stretch from the 17th tee to the 3rd fairway. There are undulations aplenty and this terrain proved demanding for both players and caddies. Flat holes are few and far between with ascending (par-5 14th climbs the most at 80 feet) and descending (par-5 6th falls the most at 70 feet) holes the norm.
Greens are huge which at 8,300 sq.ft on average are some of the largest on the PGA Tour and tend to be canted diagonally. They are pretty flat. The course is also bedecked in Platinum Paspalum from tee, to fairway, to green. There’s no rough, with stray drives heading directly into bunkers.
WWT Championship Winners: Hosted at El Cardonal: 2024: Austin Eckroat: (-24); 2023: Erik van Rooyen (-27); Hosted at El Camaleon: 2022: Russell Henley (-23); 2021: Viktor Hovland (-23); 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20); 2019: Brendon Todd (-20); 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22); 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19); 2016: Pat Perez (-21); 2015: Graeme McDowell (-18); 2014: Charley Hoffman (-17); 2013: Harris English (-21); 2012: John Huh (-13); 2011: Johnson Wagner (-17); 2010: Cameron Beckman (-15).
OWGR of WWT Championship Winners: 2024: Eckroat 59; 2023: van Rooyen 189; 2022: Henley 59; 2021: Hovland 17; 2020: Hovland 26; 2019: Todd 185; 2018: Kuchar 40.
Datagolf Ranking Bank of WWT Championship Winners: 2024: Eckroat 109; 2023: van Rooyen 179; 2022: Henley 48; 2021: Hovland 14.
Cut Line: 2024: -2; 2023: -5.
Lead Score Progression at El Cardonal:
2024: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -24.
2023: Round 1 -10; Round 2 -16; Round 3 -19; Round 4 -27.
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the WWT Championship winners here at El Cardonal:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the WWT Championship winners here at El Cardonal and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
Incoming Form of WWT Championship winners since 2013:
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Rico Hoey; 2) J.J. Spaun; 3) Justin Lower; 4) Ben Griffin; 5) Kevin Yu; 6) Taylor Montgomery; 7) Max Greyserman; 8) Erik van Rooyen; 9) Garrick Higgo; 10) Zac Blair.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time using the variables listed on the left hand side.
WWT Championship Winning Prices: 2024: Eckroat 45/1; 2023: van Rooyen 100/1; 2022: Henley 55/1; 2021: Hovland 18/1; 2020: Hovland 22/1; 2019: Todd 110/1; 2018: Kuchar 60/1; 2017: Kizzire 70/1; 2016: Perez 125/1; 2015: McDowell 33/1; 2014: Hoffman 60/1; 2013: English 25/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 48/1; Overall Average: 60/1.
Historical Weather:
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Los Cabos, Mexico is here.
There’s been plenty of precipitation in the build-up to the tournament with 249 mm across October, but none has fallen since the 22nd October. Baja in general – it’s a desert climate – has little rain, and that looks the case for WWT Championship week. So expect a typical Paspalum set-up with soft, slow, receptive greens. With little in the way of significant wind plus warmer than 2024 28-29 degrees Celsius, – 82-84 Fahrenheit – temperatures, expect super low scoring.
Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Omega European Masters which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of WWT Championship winners gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test
Tournament Skill Averages:
Let’s take a view from players as to how El Cardonal sets-up and what specific skills it requires:
Austin Eckroat (2024): “Really the last two holes, for the whole week so far is really the only ones that were outside chances. The rest of them have been, the par 5s being gettable. Then some really good approach shots. Maybe if the putter will heat up, we’ll have a really special week.
For that first day we had an extremely windy day. Honestly, outside of today, that was probably the second best round I played this week. To shoot 4 under on a day like that was really good. Then it was just kind of we had a similar wind direction every day and you could kind of get comfortable with certain tee balls with the wind direction. After Thursday the wind was pretty consistent on the amount until late yesterday, whenever we were playing hole 15 with 20-, 25-mile-an-hour gusts on the hardest hole on the golf course.
I think it could kind of validate the win I had earlier this season. Obviously that was huge for my career. Winning twice is really special because it means you really can do it. Yeah, just good confidence going into next season.
I don’t know, but there’s something about this place, I guess. It’s funny, before I won in Palm Beaches earlier this year, that was my last win was in Cabo, so it had been five years between wins. ”
Erik Van Rooyen (2023): “You know, if it’s as calm as it was this morning, someone’s going to get to 25. So just keep making birdies.
The course matches me great. I’m a great iron player. Like I said, the fairways are wide so everyone’s going to be hitting all of them. It’s a second shot golf course. There’s lots of little pockets in the greens and it kind of suits my game. I’ve putted well this week as well, so everything’s coming together nicely.”
Matt Kuchar (2023): “A lot of this place is very generous fairways. Fairways are pretty easy to find. It’s I think kind of a second-shot golf course, back nine even more so than the front nine. Back nine feels like they have a lot of rejection greens, the front nine are more collection greens. So on the back nine you’ve really got to kind of focus on avoiding a few of those big fall-offs on the greens and I was able to do that pretty well today.
It was a lot of good steady golf. The 12th hole is a difficult green, hit just a 9-iron in, but nice approach shot, my third hole of the day to get going with a birdie there. It was just steady golf. I felt good over the driver. It’s a thing, these fairways are forgiving, but if you do miss it’s big trouble. You want to make sure you’re in these fairways. Even though they’re pretty wide, pretty forgiving, if you do get off, there are big numbers to be had.
Listen, the 15th hole is I think one everybody’s kind of got circled in their yardage book, this one could get you in some trouble. I hit a terrible tee shot, tried to ride the wind, tried to have a slightly shorter club in and ended up hitting a big hook instead of a little draw. It was a big hook in the junk. That’s the only one I’d love to have back.”
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2023. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Paspalum PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
The new El Cardonal at Diamante layout certainly plays a little differently to its predecessor El Camaleon. A desert style, resort golf course with wide fairways, undulations aplenty and huge green complexes, Erik van Rooyen and Austin Eckroat are the winners here so far.
Max Greyserman 2.5pts EW 18/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
He’s obvious but first-up is Max Greyserman. 2nd last time we saw him in Japan, Greyserman has to break his maiden on the PGA Tour soon. In his last 33 PGA Tour events, the 30 year-old, Duke University graduate has had 14 top-25 finishes, of which 7 have been top-7s. 2nd at the 2024 3M Open, 2nd at the 2024 Wyndham Championship, 2nd at the 2024 ZOZO Championship, 2nd at the 2025 Rocket Classic, plus 2nd at the 2025 Baycurrent Classic. That win just has to come and I reckon he’ll have taken a lot from his genuine head-to-head with Xander Schauffele in Yokohama, where he lost by a single shot.
4th here 12 months ago when he was the 18/1 Favourite, Max was the 36-hole leader and shot rounds of -8/64 and -7/65 – more of that will be required this week. The sort who carries form, if 2024 is anything to go by then this will be Greyersman’s last outing of 2025, so it’s undoubtedly a target. RESULT: 62nd
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Thorbjorn Olesen 2pts EW 25/1 (10EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Thorbjorn Olesen interests greatly this week. Despite a PGA Tour joint career-best 3rd place finish at the Bank of Utah Championship – for those wondering he was also 3rd at the 2018 WGC Bridgestone Invitational – the experienced Dane still finds himself at 98th in the FedEx Fall Series standings. Remember a reduced top 100 grab full playing privileges for 2026, thereby being able to fully select their own schedule outside of the Signature events.
5 top-20 finishes from his last 6 global starts includes current form of 14th (Sanderson Farms), 9th (Open de Espana) and 3rd a fortnight ago in the desert of Utah. Ranking in the top 11 for both Tee to Green and Current Form across my 8 event Strokes Gained rankings, Olesen is ready to cement his PGA Tour future and I think he’ll like the El Cardonal format.
An 8-time winner on the DP World Tour, his last 2 wins at the 2023 Thailand Classic played at Amata Spring plus the 2024 Ras Al Khaimah Championship played at Al Hamra Golf Club, were both on 7,400-7,500 yard, Par 72 formats, featuring Paspalum agronomy. RESULT: T14
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Matt Wallace 1.5pts EW 50/1 (6EW, 1/5) with BetMGM
Matt Wallace, just like DP World Tour colleague Thorbjorn Olesen, still has plenty to play for. 94th in the FedEx Fall Series standings, Matt still has work to do to secure full paying privileges for 2026. Plus at 67th in the OWGR, a top 50 spot pre-Christmas isn’t out of the question, but as we know a win this week would see the Englishman qualify for the 2026 Masters anyway. Wallace had the choice of Abu Dhabi or Mexico this week and clearly PGA Tour membership took precedence – highlighting his motivation.
3rd at the 3M Open in late July, 2nd at the Omega European Masters in late August, Matt also landed 10th at the Baycurrent Classic last month, so the 35 year-old from Pinner is playing some nice stuff at points. Ranking top 25 in this field across my 8-event Strokes Gained rankings for Approach, Around the Green and Tee to Green, highlights the fact that he’s in good nick.
With 12 professional wins including 5 DP World Tour and 1 PGA Tour victories, Matt knows how to get over the line. His PGA Tour win is also notable as it came on the Paspalum bedecked, Par 72 set-up at Corales GC in 2023. Corales form is clear to see with winners and contenders here at El Cardonal, including defending champion Austin Eckroat, Justin Lower, Garrick Higgo, Wesley Bryan and Mackenzie Hughes. RESULT: T31
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Ben Kohles 1pt EW 110/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
I will close with Ben Kohles whose Tee to Green numbers presently are super eye-catching. Across my 8-event Strokes Gained trackers, in this field he ranks in the top 20 for Around the Green, the top 12 for Tee to Green and T2 for Approach. Eye-catching indeed! Plus his form is ascending nicely. 8th at the ISCO, 20th at the 3M Open, 26th at the Procore and 20th at the Bank of Utah have come across his last 7 outings.
Hitting fairways and greens for fun right now, we just have to wish for a neutral Strokes Gained Putting week on Paspalum greens that can favour poor putters. 16th (2022) and 6th (2024) at the Puerto Rico Open, Ben also has Bahamas Paspalum form on the Korn Ferry Tour namely 2nd (2019) at the Exuma Classic plus 9th (2017) and 7th (2023) at the Abaco Classic
At 144th in the FedEx Fall Series standings, quite simply Kohles is playing for his PGA Tour future right now. RESULT: T63
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Sami Valimaki 1pt EW 150/1 (6EW, 1/5) with BetMGM
Golf Betting System Podcast listeners will be well versed on Sami Valimaki and he’s the sort who could go very well on the El Cardonal Course this week. A 2024 DP World Tour graduate, this is Sami’s second full season on the PGA Tour and he’s had some successes. 2025 has seen him finish 4th at the Houston Open and 7th at the Myrtle Beach Classic with a further 4 top-20 finishes. However his best ever finish on the PGA Tour was last year at the Mexico Open, played on the Norman Signature Course at VidantaWorld. A +7,400 yard, Par 71 by the coast, the course has wide fairways and is Paspalum grassed throughout – Sami finished 2 shots shy of Jake Knapp.
A look at Valimaki’s DP World Tour career shows a couple of victories and a long–term liking for Paspalum. 1st at the 2020 Oman Open came on a +7,365 yard, Par 72, Paspalum grassed Al Mouj Golf – it was also only his second DP World Tour event. 2023 saw Sami finish 2nd at the Singapore Classic played at Laguna National, a course which features Paspalum from tee to green (Bermudagrass greens) plus 1st at the Qatar Masters in October. Doha GC features Bermudagrass from tee to green with Paspalum putting surfaces.
2nd in the Omega European Masters in late August on the DP World Tour, at 103rd in the FedEx Fall Series standings the Finn needs a strong end to 2025, and the El Cardonal course is the perfect assignment to tie-up full playing privileges for 2026. RESULT: T2
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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:30GMT 3.11.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.