ZOZO Championship Tips 2022

It was nice to land Tom Kim at the Shriners Children’s Open last week at Monday best price of 22/1 with William Hill. After far too many runner-up positions, including Sepp Straka at 45/1 the week before at the Sanderson Farms, it felt rewarding to be on the winning side in Las Vegas. We also landed full each-way payouts on Tom Hoge (50/1) and Sungjae Im (16/1). I hope plenty of you were on-board.

This week we return to Japan for the ZOZO Championship. This is the fourth running of the ZOZO and the third in Japan, after the success of 2019. Let’s be honest Tiger Woods winning the first ever PGA Tour sanctioned event in Japan was the stuff of legend and it was followed-up by home hero Hideki Matsuyama winning this last year.

The ZOZO is a short-field 78 player, no-cut event. It features the top 60 available PGA Tour players from last season’s FedEx Cup standings, and a host of the Japan Golf Tour’s best talent. With an $11 million prize fund, it’s the richest tournament of the Fall section of the 2022/23 Tour season.

It’s a stronger field than we saw for the Covid-ravaged 2021 renewal with 15 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings in attendance and headed by Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Tom Kim, Cam Young, Sungjae Im and defending champion Hideki Matsuyama.

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Before we go into the detail surrounding the ZOZO Championship we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: The Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is just outside of Japan’s sprawling capital Tokyo. Set to east of the planet’s biggest city near Chiba, Narashino CC has 3 full sets of 18 holes, namely the King, Kuko and Queen Courses.

The ZOZO Championship this week will play a composite layout on what is a typical Japanese course. Parkland in nature, the course is tree-lined, features plenty of doglegs and small putting surfaces. Another Japanese golf course design feature is that many of the holes at Narashino feature 2 greens. ZOZO like to utilise this for the tournament, with different greens used across different days, and this will be a feature on the par-4 4th hole.

Narashino Country Club, Chiba, Japan: Designer: Kinya Fujita 1976, with PGA Tour (2016-19) renovations; Course Type: Parkland, Mid-Score; Par: 70; Length: 7,079 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 4; Fairways: Zoysiagrass; Rough: Zoysiagrass 2″; Greens: Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft. Scoring Average: 2019: 69.52 (-0.48), Course Difficulty 15 of 41 courses. 2021: 70.48 (+0.48), Course Difficulty Rank 11 of 50 courses.

Course Overview: The Narashino Country Club will provide a typically Japanese test this week. A short Par 70 at 7,079 yards, – freshly extended from 7,041 yards last year – the course is instantly different, as it is based upon a 34 front / 36 back format. The composite course is composed of 5 par-3s, 10 par-4s and 3 par-5s. Not your typical Par 70 then. The par-5s come in at 587 yards (6th) and 608 yards (14th) and 562 yards (18th) so in essence the 6th and 18th are reachable in theory to the longer hitters.

Another fascinating angle here at Narashino are the 10 par-4s, which are distinctly either short or punishingly long. I personally can’t recall a course where none of the par-4s measure between 426 yards and 485 yards, but this is exactly what we see here. Instead there are 5 holes which at sub-425 yards provide excellent birdie opportunities versus the other 50% which measure 505 yards (4th), 486 yards (9th), 486 yards (11th), 490 yards (12th) and 491 yards (17th). Hit a poor tee shot and players severely struggle for par on these holes.

The course itself is undulating and set in beautiful Japanese parkland. A tree-lined venue, lines off the tee look moderately claustrophobic. Players have referenced Chapultepec where the WGC-Mexico Championship from 2017 to 2020. There are 6 doglegs to add character, but in general the rough is little real penalty. Putting surfaces are small in size, well defended by bunkers and feature Bentgrass. Green complexes are also contoured, making target areas very small for approach shots.

Narashino Country Club also features Zoysiagrass fairways and rough. Zoysiagrass is a relative rarity on the PGA Tour. Think TPC Southwind (FedEx St Jude Championship, WGC St Jude Invitational and before that the St Jude Classic) and East Lake (Tour Championship) as the regular PGA Tour stop-offs featuring this kind of grass, which is renowned for its springy nature. The AT&T Byron Nelson played at both Trinity Forest (2018/19) and now TPC Craig Ranch also feature Zoysiagrass. Plenty of professionals claim it promotes flyers, whilst others like the way the ball tends to sit up on it. Either way, it’s another research angle to attack.

The final unique, to the PGA Tour anyway, aspect we find at Narashino are the twin greens. This is a typical aspect of Japanese golf course design, with A and B greens, many featuring different grasses, so that foot traffic is managed over a golf season. For the ZOZO the par-4 4th hole which is +500 yards, will see 2 greens in operation across the tournament. For the rest of the course, if approaches landed on the non-used greens surfaces, there will be a free drop on the nearest point of relief.

ZOZO Championship Winners: Hosted at Narashino CC: 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15); Hosted at Sherwood CC: 2020: Patrick Cantlay (-23); Hosted at Narashino CC: 2019: Tiger Woods (-19).

OWGR of Winners: 2021: Matsuyama 19; 2020: Cantlay 14; 2019: Woods 10.

Lead Score Progression:

• 2021: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -8; Round 3 -10; Round 4 -15.
• 2019: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -18.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Tom Hoge, Emiliano Grillo, Collin Morikawa, Andrew Putnam, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood and Keegan Bradley.

ZOZO Championship Winners & Prices: 2021: Matsuyama 16/1; 2020: Cantlay 28/1; 2019: Woods 33/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 64. Wind NNE 5-10 mph. Friday: Scattered showers. High of 53. Wind NNE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 63. Wind NNW 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 63. Wind NNE 5-10 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Cloudy. High of 69. Wind ENE 10-15 mph. Friday: The start of the second round was postponed on Friday due to intense rains and thunderstorms. The nearest reporting station measured 9.79 inches of rain on Friday. Saturday: Sunny. High of 72. Wind NNW 4-8 mph. Preferred lies were in effect for the second round. For safety reason, spectators were not permitted to be on site for the second round. Sunday: Cloudy. High of 72. Wind N 5-10 mph. The third round began at 6:30am on Sunday, with players in groups of three starting of tees 1 and 10. Final-round tee times ran from 12:00pm – 2:00pm – Monday finish. Monday: Mostly Cloudy. High of 60. Wind NNE 5-10 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Chiba, Japan is here.

There has been plenty of precipitation in this part of Japan. 250mm in September seems heavy and already we have seen over 60mm across the past week. With a 70% chance of rain on Thursday, with a +50% chance of a top-up on Sunday, expect soft turf and potentially green conditions. Temperatures will be up on 12 months ago between 20-25 degrees Celsius, which will be pleasant. Forecasted, gusting 25mph wind on Thursday would make Narashino play tough, with the winds then relenting across the rest of the tournament.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the BMW Championship / Czech Masters, which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Xander Schauffele; 2) Hayden Buckley; 3) Keegan Bradley; 4) Sungjae Im; 5) Sepp Straka; 6) K.H. Lee; 7) Cam Young; 8) Collin Morikawa; 9) Patrick Rodgers / Scott Stallings; 11) Corey Conners; 12) Tom Hoge; 13) Joel Dahmen; 14) Cam Davis; 15) Tyrrell Hatton; 16) Lucas Herbert; 17) Viktor Hovland; 18) Si Woo Kim / Brendan Steele; 20) J.J. Spaun / Brandon Wu; 22) Tommy Fleetwood; 23) Tom Kim / Matthew NeSmith; 25) Kevin Streelman.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Tom Kim / Xander Schauffele; 3) Tom Hoge / Sepp Straka; 5) Collin Morikawa; 6) Si Woo Kim; 7) Mito Pereira; 8) Sungjae Im; 9) Sebastian Munoz; 10) Hideki Matsuyama / Sam Ryder; 12) Corey Conners; 13) Rickie Fowler / Mark Hubbard; 15) K.H. Lee / Scott Stallings / Sahith Theegala; 18) Cam Young; 19) Adam Schenk; 20) Russell Knox / Andrew Putnam; 22) Davis Riley; 23) Luke List; 24) Mackenzie Hughes / Kurt Kitayama.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Kurt Kitayama; 2) Stephan Jaeger / Peter Malnati; 4) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 5) Scott Stallings / Cam Young; 7) Hideki Matsuyama; 8) Collin Morikawa; 9) Sungjae Im; 10) Mackenzie Hughes; 11) Matt Wallace; 12) Tyrrell Hatton; 13) Viktor Hovland; 14) Russell Knox / Sepp Straka; 16) Tommy Fleetwood / Beau Hossler / Mark Hubbard / K.H. Lee; 20) Andrew Putnam; 21) Joel Dahmen; 22) Tom Kim / Mito Pereira / Xander Schauffele; 25) Sahith Theegala.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Xander Schauffele; 2) Sepp Straka; 3) Sungjae Im; 4) Scott Stallings; 5) Tom Kim; 6) Collin Morikawa; 7) Tom Hoge / K.H. Lee; 9) Cam Young; 10) Mark Hubbard; 11) Si Woo Kim / Kurt Kitayama; 13) Mito Pereira; 14) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 15) Joel Dahmen / Viktor Hovland; 17) Tyrrell Hatton / Hideki Matsuyama; 19) Tommy Fleetwood; 20) Sahith Theegala; 21) Luke List; 22) Corey Conners / J.J. Spaun; 24) Hayden Buckley / Russell Knox.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Mackenzie Hughes; 2) Sungjae Im; 3) Keegan Bradley; 4) Lucas Herbert; 5) Sebastian Munoz / Xander Schauffele / Sepp Straka; 8) Andrew Putnam; 9) Hideki Matsuyama / Cam Young; 11) Adam Long; 12) Tom Hoge; 13) Sam Ryder / Scott Stallings; 15) Tyrrell Hatton / Maverick McNealy / Taylor Moore / Alex Smalley; 19) Emiliano Grillo / Tom Kim; 21) Viktor Hovland; 22) Sahith Theegala; 23)  Beau Hossler / Matthew NeSmith; 25) Corey Conners.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Xander Schauffele; 2) Sungjae Im; 3) Sepp Straka; 4) Scott Stallings; 5) Tom Hoge / Mark Hubbard; 7) Cam Young; 8) Tyrrell Hatton / Viktor Hovland / K.H. Lee / Hideki Matsuyama; 12) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 13) Lucas Herbert; 14) Andrew Putnam; 15) Mackenzie Hughes / Tom Kim; 17) Kurt Kitayama / Mito Pereira / Sahith Theegala; 20) Keegan Bradley / Collin Morikawa; 22) Corey Conners / Sebastian Munoz; 24) Tommy Fleetwood / Russell Knox / Matthew NeSmith / J.J. Spaun.

Traditional Skill Set Trends: Analysing the final stats of 2019 ZOZO Championship top 2 finishers gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test – worthy of note that driving distance was not captured plus no data at all from the 2021 event:

• 1st, Tiger Woods (-19). 65.4% fairways (7th), 76.4% greens in regulation (3rd), 64.7% scrambling (26th), 1.64 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2nd, Hideki Matsuyama (-16). 57.7% fairways (29th), 75.0% greens in regulation (7th), 66.7% scrambling (19th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st).

So let’s take a view from players as to how Narashino Country Club sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Hideki Matsuyama (2021): “The course has not changed a lot. On this course, I just need to hit on the fairway otherwise 2nd shot will be tricky. Greens are fast as they were in 2019, keeping on the fairway and putting on greens well would be key to play solidly.”

Collin Morikawa (2021): “Yeah, you know, we’re playing pretty much at sea level, so cool kind of San Francisco Bay area weather, but with this wind, when it’s downwind you can be hitting a couple clubs less and when you’re playing into the wind it can be a couple to three clubs more, so it’s all about flighting your ball. Today I definitely wouldn’t say I had my best ball-striking, but the putting saved me and I can thank the day for that.”

Tommy Fleetwood (2021): “It’s just a really good test of golf. You have to hit the fairways. Ball is pretty much uncontrollable out of the rough, which is how it should be. Then the greens, the greens are really fast with a lot of slope. I think they had some great pin positions today. It’s basically, if you’re out of position, the game gets very, very hard around this golf course, and if you’re in position, you can still mess it up at any time. So it’s great, it’s a great challenge. Obviously the standard of play these days is amazing so scoring will still be pretty good I’m sure at the end of the week. Yeah, it’s a really good golf course to play and test yourself on. Like you say, you always have to be on your guard really, you never know what’s around the corner.”

Tiger Woods (2019):”This grass, Zoysia, man, you can get some serious flyers out here, monster flyers. The one I hit on the last hole, we were trying to hit an 8-iron 200 yards and hit it 200. That’s not something I normally do.”

Rory McIlroy (2019):” I feel like it’s either you have like there’s a lot of short par 4s, under 400 yards but then there’s a lot of par 4s that are between 490 and sort of 510. So you’ve got some real tough par 4s, you’ve got par 4s you can score on. The par 3s, two of the par 3s you can, they’re short irons and then a couple of the par 3s are longer. I think the golf course has got a lot of variety.

There’s quite a few wedges into par 4s but then there’s a couple holes today that I hit a 4 and a 5-iron into them. I guess there’s a stretch on the back nine which is pretty tough as well. But it’s a great course. It’s in great condition, the greens are so pure, and it sort of reminds me a little bit of the course we play in Mexico, Chapultepec. Reminds me a little bit of that, just sort of the tree lined and sort of the doglegs and having to sort of cut off corners and stuff, but I like it.

Played pretty well, but the setup of the golf course this afternoon was really tough. The pins were all tucked away, they were on little slopes, sort of found it hard to get close to the holes. You’re hitting it to 20 feet, it’s hard to hole putts on those greens because they’re so slopey and you’re having to give them two or three feet of break every time.”

Collin Morikawa (2019): “It’s very different than what I’ve seen before, especially on the PGA Tour this last summer. It’s a lot more narrow, the fairways are a lot smaller as compared to last week. What freaked me out was the double greens. I was a little surprised, I thought I was hitting one green but turns out the hole was on another one. But I loved it. The greens are amazing. Obviously with the rain it’s going to be pretty soft. Hitting these small greens and getting off the tee in the fairway, will be the keys this week.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the ZOZO Championship since 2019:

• 2021 – Hideki Matsuyama: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2020 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2019 – Tiger Woods: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of ZOZO Championship winners since 2019:

• 2021 – Hideki Matsuyama: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2020 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2019 – Tiger Woods: Round 1: level, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 3 ahead.

Incoming Form of ZOZO Championship winners since 2019:

• Hideki Matsuyama: 59th CJ Cup/67th Shriners/8th Fortinet/26th Tour.
• Patrick Cantlay: 38th CJ Cup/8th Shriners/43rd US Open/12th BMW.
• Tiger Woods: 37th BMW/WD Northern Trust/MC Open Champ/21st US Open.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2019. For full first round leader stats click here.

• 2021 – Iwata  -7/63 – 95/1
• 2020 – Munoz  -8/64 – 66/1
• 2019 – Woodland/Woods -6/64 – Both 45/1

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Hideki Matsuyama.
• 2 – Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Martin Laird, K.H. Lee, Troy Merritt, Xander Schauffele.
• 1 – Cameron Champ, Dylan Frittelli, Russell Knox, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Danny Lee, Chez Reavie, Scott Stallings, Kevin Streelman.

To this point we have had 3 winners of the ZOZO Championship. Pre-Covid pandemic the inaugural ZOZO held here at Narashino Country Club was won by Tiger Woods. He was a 33/1 chance. Inactive for 10 weeks, Tiger had relatively flat inbound from of 37/WD/MC/21 but naturally had won the 2019 Masters.

The 2020 ZOZO was held at Sherwood Country Club in California in the build-up to the November Masters. Patrick Cantlay won at 28/1. Cantlay was a non-winner in 2020 but had shown a little form following on from a disappointing FedEx Cup Playoff campaign, where he did not make the Tour Championship. 43rd at the U.S. Open was followed by 8th at the Shriners Open, where Patrick had led after 36 and 54 holes. 38th at the CJ Cup the week before was low-key, but Cantlay had closed with a promising -5/67.

Back in Japan at Narashino in 2021, home hero Hideki Matsuyama took the title at 16/1. Hideki had finished runner-up to Woods in 2019 so clearly liked the course. Inbound form like the previous ZOZO winners was again patchy. 26th at the Tour Championship, Matsuyama had played 3 times across the new PGA Tour season, registering 6th at the Fortinet Championship, 67th at the Shriners Open and 59th at the CJ Cup the week before.

Narashino Country Club will be the host course again in 2022. It was the venue for the Suntory Open between 1973 and 1997. But there could well be an angle from 2016 which saw Prayad Marksaeng win the Japan Senior Open. The popular Thai player had won the 2008 Dunlop Phoenix Tournament hosted at the Phoenix Country Club in Japan, and was runner-up again there in 2017.

Carrying this Narashino / Phoenix Country Club line of enquiry forward to the 2019 ZOZO, winner Tiger Woods won the Dunlop Phoenix titles back in 2004 and 2005 and was runner-up there in 2006. 2021 winner and 2019 runner-up Hideki Matsuyama also has an interesting Phoenix Country Club record which includes 2nd (2012), 6th (2013), 1st (2014), 2nd (2015), 5th (2017) and 8th (2019).

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 17:00BST 10.10.22 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.